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Long-Term Reliability Assessment Key Findings and Long-Term Issues
John Moura, Director of Reliability Assessment
2 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Topics Covered Today
• Background on NERC’s Long-Term Reliability Assessment
• Emerging and Long-Term Reliability Issues
• Highlights and Key Findings from 10-Year Projections
• Resource Adequacy Assessments
– Reserve Margins
– Probabilistic Indices
3 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Background
• Peak demand forecasts
• Resource adequacy
• Transmission adequacy
• Key issues and emerging trends impacting reliability
Technical challenges
Evolving market practices
Potential legislation/regulation
• Regional self-assessment
• Ad-hoc special Assessments
4 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Reliability Assessment Timeline
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
LTRA Data
Request
Open
Workshop
PC Comment &
Endorsement BOT Approval
Publish LTRA
RAS Peer
Review
NERC
Management
Review
MRC Review
& Comment Oct Apr May Jun
BOT Approval
Publish
Summer
Assessment
RAS
Peer
Review
NERC
Management
Review
MRC Review &
Comment
Data
Receive
Summer
Assessment Data
Request
PC Endorsement
BOT Approval
MRC Review &
Comment
PC Endorsement
NERC
Management
Review
RAS
Peer
Review Data
Receive
Winter Assessment
Data Request
Jun Oct Nov Dec
Publish
Winter
Assessment
Publish
Winter
Assessment
5 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Assessment Areas
Assessment Areas based on planning and operating functions
6 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Long-Term Reliability Issues
• Change in Resource Mix Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements: Capacity and Security Issues
Increasing Variable Generation: Planning and Operating Challenges
Demand-Side Management: Demand Response and Energy Efficiency
Transmission Needs: Siting and Permitting, Alignment with Generation
• Environmental Regulations Air, Water, and Waste Regulations
Potential C02 Regulations
Other RPS requirements
• Potential Operational Risks Associated with Interaction of Special Protection Schemes/Remedial Action Schemes
• Global Supply Chains and Fuel Reliability
• Assessment of Fault-Induced Delayed Voltage Recovery (FIDVR)
• Aging Infrastructure
• Coordinated Cyber / Physical Attacks on Critical Infrastructure*
7 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements
Significant Fossil-Fired Generator Retirements Over Next Five Years
• Cumulative retirements between 2012 and 2022
• Slightly larger impacts than our 2011 generator retirement study
6 13
18 23
37 42 42 43 43 44 44 45
1
4
5
9
12
22 23 24 25 25 26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gig
aw
att
s (
GW
)
Confirmed Unconfirmed
8 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements
0
5
10
15
20
25
GW
2022 Confirmed Retirements 2022 Projected Retirements
• Assessment Area view reveals high-impact regions
Significant Fossil-Fired Generator Retirements Over Next Five Years
9 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements
1.6%
6.2%
11.0%
13.1%
1.7%
6.0%
1.7%
11.9%
5.1% 5.1% 4.8%
0
5
10
15
20
25
GW
2022 Confirmed Retirements 2022 Projected Retirements Percentage of 2013 Anticipated Resources (Peak Season)
• Assessment Area view reveals high-impact regions
• MISO, MRO-SaskPower, PJM projected to retire over 10% of all capacity resources
Significant Fossil-Fired Generator Retirements Over Next Five Years
10 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Generation Retrofits
Long-Term Generator Maintenance Outages for Environmental Retrofits Can Impact Reliability During “Shoulder Months”
59
34
21 20
8 6 5 4 1 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
GW
Confirmed - Total Peak Capacity (MW) Unconfirmed - Total Peak Capacity (MW)
NERC Total: 158,434 MW, 339 Electric Generation Units
Note: Unconfirmed retrofit outages include projections of 316(b) of the Clean Water Act compliance activities
11 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Natural Gas Dependency
Increased Dependence on Natural Gas for Electricity Generation
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 % G
as C
apac
ity
Co
mp
ared
to
To
tal I
nte
rnal
D
eman
d
GW
Conceptual Future-Planned % Gas Capacity
12 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Coal-to-Gas Fuel Switching
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gig
aw
att
s (
GW
)
Projected Coal/Oil Capacity Net Reductions: -35 GW
Projected Gas-Fired Capacity: +40 GW
Unconfirmed Coal/Oil Capacity Retirements : -25.7 GW
Coal-to-Gas Fuel Switching in Progress and Continues in the 10-year Horizon
13 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Increase in Renewables
Renewables Represent Largest Growth of Installed Capacity Introducing New System Planning and Operational Challenges
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gig
awat
ts (
GW
)
Growth in Expected On-Peak
Capacity
Hydro
Pumped Storage
Geothermal
Wind
Biomass
Solar
14 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Accommodating High-Levels of Variable Generation
Reliably integrating these resources into the bulk power system will require significant changes to traditional methods used for system
planning and operation
Forecasting
• Variable Fuels Must Be Used When Available
• Forecast is only information; operator must make informed decisions
• “It’s the ramps, not the ripples”
• Methods for calculating expected on-peak capacity
Flexibility
• More Ancillary Services
• Larger Balancing Authorities
• Flexible Resources
• Storage
• PHEV
• Leverage fuel diversity of other variable resources
Transmission
• Interconnect variable energy resources in remote areas
• Construct/site/permit transmission to deliver power across long distances
15 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
• Completed Tasks – 1-1 Standards Models of Variable Generation
– 1-2 Methods to Model and Calculate Capacity of Variable Generation for Resource Adequacy Planning
– 1-4 Flexibility Requirements and Metrics for Variable Generation
– 1-5 Potential Reliability Impacts of Emerging Flexible Resources
– 1-8 Reliability Impacts of Distributed Resource
– 2-1 Variable Generation Power Forecasting for Operations
– 2-3 Ancillary Services and BA Solutions
– 2-4 Operating Practices, Procedures, and Tools
IVGTF - Completed Steps
16 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Resource Challenges in Texas
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ANTICIPATED PROSPECTIVE ADJUSTED POTENTIAL NERC REFERENCE
Increased Risk of Capacity Deficiencies in ERCOT; More Resources are Quickly Needed to Minimize Risk of Firm Load Shedding and Increase Reserve Margins
17 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Resource Challenges in Texas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GW
Anticipated Capacity Resources Peak Demand
2.35% Peak Demand Annual Growth Rate
ERCOT has a High Risk of Capacity Deficiencies; More Resources are Quickly Needed to Minimize Risk of Firm Load Shedding and Increase Reserve Margins
18 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Demand-Side Management
840850860870880890900910920930940950960970980990
1,0001,0101,0201,030
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gig
awat
ts (
GW
)
DR (Load-Modifying) DR (Resource) Energy Efficiency Net Internal Demand Total Internal Demand
• Total Internal Demand to increase by 113,000 MW• Demand Response increases by 26,000 MW• Energy Efficiency increase by 13,800 MW
• DSM offsets 6 years of growth
• Total Internal Demand to increase by 113 GW • Demand Response increases by 26 GW to 61 GW • Energy Efficiency increase by 20 GW
Significant Increases in Demand‐Side Management Continue to Offset Future Resource Needs while Providing More Flexibility for System Operators
19 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Demand-Side Management
Significant Increases in Demand‐Side Management Continue to Offset Future Resource Needs while Providing More Flexibility for System Operators
7.0% 7.5% 8.7%
11.6%
7.1% 8.0%
4.0% 4.6%
3.0% 2.9%
7.0% 7.0%
1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.7% 3.9% 3.5%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022
PJM MISO NPCC SERC WECC FRCC ERCOT SPP MRO
Me
ga
wa
tts (
MW
)
Total Peak Demand Response (Supply and Demand-Side) Percent of Total Internal Demand
20 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Transmission
Overall Growth of Transmission Infrastructure Responding to Increased Plans to Integrate and Deliver New Resources
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000
90-94 91-95 92-96 93-97 94-98 95-99 96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03 00-04 01-05 02-06 03-07 04-08 05-09 06-10 07-11 08-12 09-13 10-14 11-15 12-16
Cir
cuit
Mile
s
5 Year Outlook Actual Miles Added Over 5-Year Period
Historical average of transmission built within any given consecutive 5-
year period between 1990 and 2012 is
approximately 7,000 miles
Industry continues to meet higher-than-average 5-year plans
21 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Key Finding: Resources Generally Sufficient
-5% 0% 5%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65%
Anticipated Prospective Adjusted Potential NERC Reference Margin Level
In Most Areas, Resources are Sufficient to Meet Reliability Targets; Some Uncertainties Remain in the Latter Years of the Assessment Period
2022
22 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Probabilistic Indices: A Next Step for the LTRA
NEW ENGLAND
Report 2010 Report 2012 Report
2011 2014 2014 2016
LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin 18.8% 21.6% 30.8% 21.2%
Prospective Reserve Margin 20.0% 22.6% 30.8% 21.2%
ProbA
Forecast Planning Res. Margin 10.9% 12.2% 21.9% 13.1%
Adjusted Planning Res. Margin 30.5% 21.0%
EUE (MWh) 63.40 1.50 0.80 6.70
EUE (ppm) 0.45 0.01 0.01 0.04
LOLH (hours/year) 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.01
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2011 2014 2014 2016
2010 Report 2012 Report
LTRA Anticipated Reserve MarginLTRA Prospective Reserve MarginProbA Adjusted Planning Res. Margin
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
2011 2014 2014 2016
2010 Report 2012 Report
MW
h/T
Wh
ho
urs
/ye
ar
LOLH (hours/year) EUE (ppm)
23 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Next Steps
• 2013 Long-Term Reliability Assessment is in Development – Preliminary Data and Information has been submitted to NERC
• Launching the Long-Term Reliability Issues Survey and Risk Assessment (July) – Tool for “crowd sourcing” SMEs across NERC’s Planning and Operating
Technical Committees
– Identify key insights on long-term challenges from stakeholders
– Informs NERC of focus areas for LTRA, as well as follow-on special assessments, task force formation, risk priorities for RISC.
• Technical Committee Review (September)
• Report Published (November)
Questions?
25 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Existing Reports and Background
• Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation, http://www.nerc.com/files/Special%20Report%20-
%20Accommodating%20High%20Levels%20of%20Variable%20Generation.pdf
• Standard Models for Variable Generation
http://www.nerc.com/files/Standards%20Models%20for%20Variable%20Generation.pdf
• Flexibility Requirements and Potential Metrics for Variable Generation,
http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Task_1_4_Final.pdf
• Potential Reliability Impacts of Emerging Flexible Resources,
http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Task_1_5_Final.pdf
• Variable Generation Power Forecasting for Operations,
http://www.nerc.com/files/Varialbe%20Generationn%20Power%20Forecasting%20for%20Operations.pdf
• Methods to Model and Calculate Capacity Contributions of Variable Generation for Resource Adequacy
Planning, http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF1-2.pdf
• Ancillary Service and Balancing Authority Area Solutions to Integrate Variable Generation,
http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF2-3.pdf
• Operating Practices, Procedures, and Tools, http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF2-4.pdf
• Interconnection Requirements for Variable Generation:
http://www.nerc.com/files/2012_IVGTF_Task_1-3.pdf
• Reliability Standards for the Bulk Electric Systems of North America,
http://www.nerc.com/files/Reliability_Standards_Complete_Set.pdf