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Key Assumptions for the Inclusion of the Base Policy Case
in the Modelling Process IEP Colloquium 30 March 2012
Dr Rebecca Maserumule Demand Modelling Specialist
Contents
• Key Components of the Base Case
• Definition of the Base Policy Case
• Criteria for including policies and legislation in the Base Policy Case
• Description of Policies and Legislation included in the Base Policy Case
• Key Assumptions
Base Case
Base Case
GDP growth
Oil price
Base Case
Population Growth (Households)
Base Case
Base Case
Over 300 technologies are being considered for the energy system
Capital cost
Variable cost
Fixed cost
Supply Side: •Electricity Generation considering over 25 technologies (fossil fuel, nuclear, renewable) •Oil Refineries considering 10 technologies (conventional, non-conventional)
Demand Side: Transport sector considering over 25 technologies (conventional, green) •Residential sector considering close to 25 technologies
Base Case
Base Case
Green house gas emissions
Pollutant emissions
Base Case
Base Case
The Base Policy Case gives a baseline vision of how the South African energy economy would evolve if the Government does nothing beyond what they have already committed themselves to doing to influence long-term energy trends.
Adopted Policies, Legislation, and Regulations in place as of 1 January 2012
Step One: Environmental Scan
• Environmental Scan of all policies, legislation and regulation which impact the energy sector. A policy database with over 85 policies which impact the South African energy economy was compiled to support the analysis.
• White Papers
• Green Papers
• Policy
• Strategy
• Plans
• Discussion Documents
• Bills
• Draft Regulations
Step Two: Review each policy against criteria for possible inclusion in the modelling process
Impact on the lifecycle cost of large scale infrastructure
Reduction of the pollutant emissions in the energy sector
Reduction of the GHG emissions in the energy sector
Impact on the market penetration rates of technologies
Improve the energy efficiency of technology choices
Impact on the penetration rate of energy carriers
Impact on the demand for an energy carrier
Targets set for renewable energy share and technology
1 million Solar Water Heater Rollout
Programme
National Building
Regulations and
Standards
Bio-fuels Industrial
Policy
Industrial Policy
Action Plan
National Climate Change
Response White Paper
Renewable Energy White Paper
Examples of Key Policies Not Included in Base Policy Case
Name of Policy Not Included Reason for not including
Draft Amendment Regulations Regarding Product Specifications and Standards( Clean fuels 2)
Not in place as of 1 January 2012 and will be included as part of the Test Cases
National Energy Regulator Act
This legislation established Nersa to regulate the electricity, piped-gas and petroleum pipeline industries and can not be quantified in the modelling process
Industrial Policy Action
Plan
Bio-fuels Industrial Strategy
National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act
National Building
Regulations and
Standards
SANS 10400 XA
SANS 204 Electricity Regulation
Act
National Energy
Act
Free Basic Electricity
Policy
Regulations on the
allowance for energy efficiency
savings
Income Tax Act
New Development
Plan
Electricity Regulations for
Compulsory Norms and Standards
for Reticulation Services
Government Notice 248:
of 2010
Energy Efficiency and Demand
Side Management
Policy
Vehicle Emissions
Tax
Renewable Energy White Paper
Policies and Legislation included in Base Case (Only Quantifiable and High-Impact Elements Considered)
National Climate Change
Response White Paper
Industrial Policy Action
Plan
Bio-fuels Industrial Strategy
National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act
National Building
Regulations and
Standards
SANS 10400 XA
SANS 204 Electricity Regulation
Act
National Energy
Act
Free Basic Electricity
Policy
Regulations on the
allowance for energy efficiency
savings
Income Tax Act
New Development
Plan
Electricity Regulations for
Compulsory Norms and Standards
for Reticulation Services
Government Notice 248:
of 2010
Energy Efficiency and Demand
Side Management
Policy
Vehicle Emissions
Tax
Renewable Energy White Paper
Policies and Legislation included in Base Case (Only Quantifiable and High-Impact Elements Considered)
National Climate Change
Response White Paper
By including these policies and or legislation the Base Case it is assumed that each of these policies and or legislation will be implemented effectively and as planned
Energy Sector Targets for Renewable Energy Carriers and Electrification
Go ahead and replace it with your own text. This is
an example text.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012 2020
DoE solar water heater programme:
1 million solar water heaters
IPAP: 5.6 million solar
water heaters
Renewable Energy
White Paper: 10,000 GWh Renewable
energy
Biofuels Industrial Strategy:
2% penetration biofuels
New Development Plan:
90% of households are electrified
Energy Sector Targets for Renewable Energy Carriers and Electrification
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2021 2029
New Development Plan:
95% of South Africans will have
access to electricity
2030
Residential Sector: Solar Water Heaters
National Building Standards and Regulations Act, SANS 10400-XA Compulsory for new buildings and upgrades to install SWHs
Industrial Policy Action Plan, SANS 204 More efficient SWH introduced into the market from 2012 inline with the SABS requirements
Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Management Policy Investment cost for SWH are reduced due to the standard offer rebate
Residential Sector
National Building Standards and Regulations Act, SANS 204, IPAP Improved efficiency standards for electrical appliances ( lighting, space heating, water heating) allowed in the market
Free Basic Electricity Policy Indigent households will be provided with 50KWh in electricity per month. Targets for the inclusion of FBE to indigent households will be included
Commercial Sector
National Building Standards and Regulations Act, SANS 10400-XA All new commercial building built from 1 Jan 2012 will have to install a water heater other than an electric to meet at least 50% of annual water heating needs
Income Tax Act, Regulations on the Allowance of Energy Efficiency Savings, National Energy Act Investment cost for energy efficient improvements will be offset by a tax rebate
Commercial Sector: Appliances
Electricity Regulation Act, Electricity Regulations for Compulsory Norms and Standards for Reticulation Services Compulsory for energy efficient street lighting to be installed by municipalities and other government entities
Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Management Policy Investment cost for SWH are reduced due to the standard offer rebate
Transformation Sector
National Climate Change Response White Paper The inclusion of synthetic fuel refineries with carbon capture and storage as an option for the choices of technologies
National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act, In compliance with minimum emissions standards sulphur oxide, Nitogen oxide existing large scale infrastructure such as oil refineries and power plants will be required to increase capital cost.
Transport Sector
Vehicle Emissions Tax All passenger vehicles emitting more than 120 g/km CO2 will be taxed at R75 per g/km approximately (R10,000 and R20,000) to investment cost.
Industrial Policy Action Plan Market penetration of plug in electric vehicles in South Africa beyond 2014 as supporting infrastructure is expected to be in place
