Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences Hethersett 22 nd November 2005

Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICEEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre

School of Environmental Sciences

Hethersett 22nd November 2005

Saham Toney 23rd November 2005

CRed

Saving Energy – A Practical GuideWays to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint

Hard Choices Ahead

Future Global Warming RatesConcentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Change in precipitation 1961-2001

19792003

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal falling rapidly -

coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect

this

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Difficult Choices Ahead

Nuclear Generating Capacity

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Ins

talle

d C

ap

ac

ity

(M

W)

Projection

Actual

Wholesale Price of Electricity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 13 25

(p p

er k

Wh)

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

2003 2004 2005

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed on house in Norwich

27th January 2004

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020

• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route

and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

Government Response

• Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050

• Will require unprecedented partnership activity in

local communities to ensure on track by 2020s

• (– but no indication of how this will be

undertaken)

“There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’

- Energy White Paper: February 2003

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

Around 4 million in Norfolk

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Some facts:

A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging

up to 20 kg CO2 a year

Standby on television > 60 kg per year

Filling up with petrol (~£30 for a full tank)

--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles



Some things to consider when buying/ using household appliances:• Frost Free fridges/freezers typically consume 20% more energy.

• A tumble drier consumes approximately 4 times the energy of the equivalent washing machine.

• Always purchase at least an A rated fridge or freezer – preferably A+ (25% more efficient than A), or A++ (up to 50% more efficient)

• Pre-1999 fridges/freezers can consume up to 2.5 times as much energy as an A rated one.

• Avoid using halogen spot lights – there are now low energy varieties.

• Do not be confused between low-voltage and low-energy

• Watch out for LED lighting

• Check that new TV’s, CD players etc have intelligent standby systems (i.e. they should be 1W only).

• Boiling a cup of water unnecessarily emits 25 cupfuls of carbon dioxide

• Putting the lid on a saucepan when boiling vegetables saves 90%


Micro Wind

Micro CHP

Heat Pumps

• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine.

• On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

Involve the local Community

Electricity Statistics: City of Norwich

• Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year.

• Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh

• North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh

• Kings Lynn and West Norfolk 5908 kWh

• Great Yarmouth 5144 kWh

• A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 66% of domestic needs for whole of Norwich (or 22% of total demand)

• Would save ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year.

• The alternative:

• Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car again

• Or 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

Hard Choices• What can we do individually?• What can you do collectively in your School / Village /

Community?

• Visit the CRed WEB Site www.cred-uk.org• Sign a pledge to• combat global warming• help secure a sustainable environment for our children• help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming• help secure energy supplies for the future

• saving energy– Technical solutions– Awareness

• promoting appropriate renewable energy

http://www.cred-uk.org/

Conclusions• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Security more likely in future.

• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy

It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.

• Otherwise Nuclear???

• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/

This presentation will be available from tomorrow at: www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

Conclusions

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

Documents

Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences Hethersett 22 nd November 2005