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Insufficient Technology
Sufficient Technologymaximum extraction
Resourcedepleted
Time
Return
Average Return – how much do you get
Marginal Return – how much extra for extra effort
Resource commonly
abandoned here
Time
Benefits of
Complexity
(Marginal return)
As resource becomes scarce, system switches to somenew resource
Solitary Insects
Colonial Insects
Wood
CoalHoneyFeces, leaves
Lizards, large preyTrees
WaveWind Solar
Hydrogen
Industrial Carbon
Imperial taxation
Rape loot and pillage
Agriculture
Hunter / Gatherer
Species lost
Here ?
Physical system
processes
Actual ExternalGradient
Linguistic planning element. Internal to System, external to thermodynamics
Anticipateddecline in
resourcesinfluences
plan
Plan
Flux versus plan, process versus structure
Constraint
If you can seethe dynamicsof the flux you cannot see the constraint
If you can see the constraint you cannot see the dynamics of the fluxHeisenberg Uncertainty
Dominates Under
High gain
Actual ExternalGradient
Dominates Under
Low gain
Anticipateddecline in
resourcesinfluences
plan
Plan
High Gain Low gain
• Steep gradient of fuel inputs. Ready for use
• Shallow gradient poor inputs needs refining.
On shallow gradients, systems are less predictable. They have a variety of plans for getting the most out of resources.
On steep gradients the resource has been concentrated by some external process, the system just uses it according to simple, predictable energetics.
High Gain Low gain
• Steep gradient of fuel inputs. Ready for use.
• Is ephemeral.• Remains local in
space.
• Shallow gradient poor inputs needs refining.
• Last a long time• Expands across
space.
• Loot and pillage• Focus on gold in cities
• Taxation in over 30 units • Spread; fill in space
Roman Republic Roman Empire
1st Century BC
1st Century AD
High Gain Low gain
• Steep gradient of fuel inputs. Ready for use.
• Is ephemeral.• Remains local in
space.• Self organizes from
within.
• Shallow gradient poor inputs needs refining.
• Lasts a long time.• Expands across
space.• Organized by external
design elements.
High Gain Low gain
• Steep gradient of fuel inputs. Ready for use
• Is ephemeral.• Remains local in
space.• Self organizes from
within.• Adds components to
top of hierarchy.
• Shallow gradient poor inputs needs refining.
• Lasts a long time.• Expands across
space.• Organized by external
design elements.• Make middle of
hierarchy more dense
German KingdomRoman Province emerges as new structure
Gold has been looted, so how to pay for the garrison?
Not much in a peasant, but capture sunshine real-time in taxed agriculture.
High gain Low gain
• Sucks up resources as needed.
• Impressive in energy capture.
• Increased efficiency
• Impressive high organization.
High gain Low gain
• Sucks up resources as needed.
• Impressive in energy capture.
• Can only be managed from context because of self-repair.
• Increases efficiency,
• Impressive high organization.
• Manage by manipulating the parts. No self repair.
Wrong narrative. Low gain story in a high gain setting
Strong gradients can make bad things livable unexpectedly. You cannot plan.
• Somalia had a drought• Food organizations got food to Mogodishu airport,
good?
Strong gradients can make bad things livable unexpectedly. You cannot plan.
• Warlords love famine. It gives them control, Bad
• Somalia had a drought• Food organizations got food to Mogodishu airport
• Warlords emerge on gradient of donated food, Bad
Strong gradients make structure emerge unexpectedly.
• Somalia had a drought• Food organizations got food to Mogodishu airport,
good?• Warlords love famine. It gives them control,
• Warlords emerge on gradient of donated food, Bad
• Drought is over, but warlords steal farmers food, Bad
• Eventually warlords are weakened by military, Good
Food aid keeps prices lowso farmers don’t plant, Bad
High gain Low gain• Increases dissipation
as needed.• Impressive in energy
capture.• Can only be managed
from context because of self-repair.
• If not Caesar, then someone else
• Increased efficiency, greater degradation.
• Impressive high organization.
• Manage by manipulating the parts. No self repair.
• Lower energy means less likely happening
Evolutionary time
Benefits of Complexity
Food Ants
Fungus farmers
ANTS
Feces& flowers Leaf cutting
ATTINES
ATTASmall vs Mature Colony
Lower attinesor
It depends!
High gain Collapse
Upper level not serviced
Organization fails at
Low level
Low gain
High gain Run out of
fuel
Run out offuel
No change in efficiency
Quality resourcedepleted
Diffuse resourcenot processed
Low gain collapse occurs as upperlevel runs out offuel because of failure to processand hand refined material to the top.
Even after collapsecoded elements
persist as narratives in
memory
High gain also failsto refine low grade material so collapseis for the same reason.
Time
Organization &
Benefits of
Complexity(Marginal return)
Embodied in the new upperlevel structure is previous organization filtered through individuals who survived all previous collapses
Memory changes from inertial tocoded myths and stories and back
Rome
Dark Ages
Italian
RennaissanceVictorian
Britain
The EU
Suez crisis
Peaks are inertial dynamic functioning, as thermodynamics moves to hold structure on course. Hollows are times of collapse when memory survives coded in individuals.
The EU is the memory of Rome, a united Europe never completely forgotten
Coded memory
Coded memory
Coded memory
Inertial memory
Inertial memory
Inertial memoryInertial
memory
Celtic Britain
= Work achieved throughput x quality
Low quality effluent
New very lowquality effluent
work
work
More inputgets more work doneby morethroughput
Less inputbut still more work because of moredegradationwith the samethroughput
Less workdone by lessdegradation More work
done by moredegradation
High gain uses more input Low gain gets more efficient
High quality inputHigh quality input
But the inefficient system is not stuck in limited work potential
= change in quality betweeninput and output
= Work achieved throughput x quality
Low quality effluent
Very lowquality effluent
work
work
More inputgets more work doneby morethroughput
More workdone by moredegradation
The mass of gold as isolated molecules
Gold nuggets
FortKnox
Gold dust
Size of the concentration of the resource
Total mass
of material
High quality input
Inefficient degradation process
Low quality effluent
High quality input
New efficientdegradation process
New very lowquality effluent
Effluent becomes
Poor quality resource looks good
Impossible material can become a resource
Inefficient High Gain System Efficient Low Gain System
resource
Ch1 Fig 1
High qualityInputs under High gain
Low quality spent fuel
Degradation of resource under high gain
Deeper degradationof spent fuel under low gain
Lower quality Inputs under low gain aremore abundant
In the move from high to low gain,spent fuel is degraded deeper.
Often that allows Lower quality inputs to be used. Lowerquality is more abundant givingeconomies of scale
Deeper low gain
Economy of scale
Low gain
Yes!OK
Regular low gain increased size
If resource use leaves behind lower quality resource the system cannot use it simply collapses. Alternatively the system may gather the low quality material and refine it into a workable fuel. There is more low quality material globally, so the system then gets bigger under the switch to low gain.
High gain Collapse
Deeper low gain
Economy of scale
Low gain
High gain
Run out of resource
Yes! OK
No change in efficiency
High qualityInputs under High gain
Low qualityoutputs
Under low gain withdiminishing returns the system still uses the same high quality inputs.For instance we may still tax peasants but need more funds.
Blue line get economies of scale and so will increase size of system since lower quality inputs are more abundant
The systemmust degrade deeper (tax harder) to carry greater overhead costs.Decline in marginal return.
Since the quality of inputs remains the same there is no globalincrease in abundance. As a result the increased work is not accompaniedby economies of scaleto pay for the extra effort.
Resilience is eroded by the absence of scaling benefits (black bracket). The system must do more work simply to stay in business.
Deeper low gain
Degrade deeper
Low gain
Less resilience.Slack disappears
Heavy lifting, more
efficiency
Increased control
complexification
But cannot lower quality
of inputs
No economyof scale
Deeper low gain
Degrade deeper
Low gain
Less resilience. Slack disappears
Heavy lifting, more
efficiency
Increased control
complexification
But do not lower quality
of inputs
No economyof scale
Smaller, more diffuse
SimplifyLower cost of complication
High gain Collapse
Deeper low gain
Cannot continue
Economy of scale
Low gain
Run out ofResourceYes!
OK
Regular low gain increased size
Collapse
High gain Collapse
Deeper low gain
Cannot continue
Economy of scale
Low gain
Run out ofResourceYes!
OK
Less resilience.Slack disappears
Heavy lifting, more
efficiency
Regular low gain increased size
Increased control
No !More cost of processing
complexification
Collapse
High gain Collapse
Deeper low gain
Cannot continue
Economy of scale
Low gain
Run out ofResourceYes!
OK
Cut slack less resilience
Heavy lifting, more
efficiency
Regular low gain increased size
Increased control
SimplifyLower cost of complication No !
More cost of processing
complexification
Collapse
Smaller, more diffuse
SimplifyLower cost of complication
Smaller, more diffuse
SimplifyLower cost of complication
Smaller, more diffuse
SimplifyLower cost of complication
Smaller, more diffuse
SimplifyLower cost of complication
High gain Collapse
Deeper low gain
Cannot continue
Economy of scale
Low gain
Run out ofResourceYes!
OK
Cut slack less resilience
Heavy lifting, more
efficiency
Regular low gain increased size
Increased control
SimplifyLower cost of complication No !
More cost of processing
complexification
Collapse
Smaller, more diffuse
Resource gets
used up
Slope (tendency of systemto move downhillas resources
get used)
Complicatedness
High gain collapse
course
correction
Prudent course
Good WoodBad Wood 40%
Soil Feeding. 5% Colonies down to 20 very large individuals mostly outside the colony. Memory of colony function now resides in individuals
Termite Evolution
Change in strategy
low gain collapse
Soil eaters live in the tropics. They have insufficient capital to survive purturbationssuch as winter
Anticipation
Local / Global
High gain adaptive peak
High gain collapse
HIAmount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
Previous figure showing an adaptive surface in switch from high to low gain.
Low gain adaptive
peak
LO
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HI
LO
Amount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
If a naïve system enters the arena it must shed old adaptations to focus on plentiful local high gain resource.
Entry point Of naïve systemWith adaptations An old situation.
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HI
LO
Amount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
As local quality resource is plucked the ratio of quantity of local to global decreases. There is more global but it is lower quality. The ratio first loses local quality, but then gets smaller due to Increases in quantity of usable but poor resource.
The concept of low hangingfruit from economics is heregeneralized to a dynamic process.We work up to higher fruit that is still the lowest to be had.
Resource gets
used up
Slope (tendency of systemto move downhill
as resources get used)
Complicatedness
High gain collapse
Prudent course
low gain collapse
course
correction
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HI
LO
Amount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
Eventual energetic constraint on low gain given super-low gain smaller system
Resource gets
used up
Slope (tendency of systemto move downhill
as resources get used)
Complicatedness
High gain collapse
Prudent course
low gain collapse
course
correction
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HI
LO
Amount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
Prudent path is never taken because it goes through a valley of maladaptation.
Resource gets
used up
Slope (tendency of systemto move downhill
as resources get used)
Complicatedness
High gain collapse
Prudent course
low gain collapse
course
correction
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HI
LO
Amount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
As local quality declines adaptations lead to the low gain adaptive peak.
Anticipation Local / Global
High gain collapse
Entry pointof naive system
HI
Abandons old adaptations
High gain adaptive peak
Resource quality declines
Moves up to low gain
adaptive peak
Low gain collapse
Amount of adequate resource
Anticipation Local / Global
High gain collapse
HI High gain adaptive peak
Resource quality declines
Super low gain capped by energetics
Moves up to low gain
adaptive peak
Low gain collapse
Amount of adequate resource
Low gain efficiently degradesresources but even so can encounter serious limits. As inputs hit extreme low quality,efficiency cannot address the ultimate limit on energy in the resource at a a base level
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HIAmount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
Eventual energetic constraint on low gain puts a cap on size and energy flux as systems are forced to economize to give super-low gain smaller systems
The red arrow is forced by a cap down todecreased complexity even though greater adaptation and deeper control are exerted. The system becomes simpler. The constraints are the ultimate limit in energy to support the system. The low gain peak suffers anexternal limit that efficiency cannot ameliorate without simplification.
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HI
LO
Amount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
Eventual energetic constraint on low gain given super-low gain smaller system
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HI
LO
Amount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
If a naïve system enters the arena it must shed old adaptations to focus on plentiful local high gain resource.
Entry point Of naïve systemWith adaptations An old situation.
System enters raw high gain mode where it grabs easy resources from local hot spots. Such resources are local not global. Soon the best hot spots get used up and the local to global ratio changes
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HI
LO
Amount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
As quantity of quality resource declines there is a decision point at which adaptation is made or not. If “not” then soon adaptation becomes impossible because the system cannot go uphill. Collapse follows
Adaptation may allow system to get by with lower quality resource whereupon the system ascends the low gain peak where it is larger and more efficient.
As resources are used under low gain, increases in efficiency allow further adaptation, but in the end the pressure to economize forces decrease in size and complexity, albeit highly efficient.
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HI
LO
Amount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
Eventual energetic constraint on low gain given super-low gain smaller system
Anticipation
Local / Global
Resource adequate
High gain collapse
HI
LO
Amount of adequate resource
Amount ofadequate resource
Eventual energetic constraint on low gain given super-low gain smaller system
HI
LO High gain collapse
Anticipation
Local toGlobalRatio
Local declines
Globalincrease
Strongest selective pressure
Aerial view of transition from Hi to Lo gain
High Saddle
Niave system sheds irrelevant adaptations
HI
LO High gain collapse
Anticipation
Local toGlobalRatio
Local declines
Globalincrease
Strongest selective pressure
Aerial view of transition from Hi to Lo gain
High Saddle
Niave system sheds irrelevant adaptations
Prudent path cannot pass
resource trough
HI
LO High gain collapse
Anticipation
Local toGlobalRatio
Local declines
Globalincrease
Strongest selective pressure
Aerial view of transition from Hi to Lo gain
High Saddle
Niave system sheds irrelevant adaptations
Once high gain passes decision point it cannot go
up hill to the saddle
Only high apples left but you don’t have a ladder.
HI
LO High gain collapse
Anticipation
Local toGlobalRatio
Local declines
Globalincrease
Strongest selective pressure
Aerial view of transition from Hi to Lo gain
High Saddle
Niave system sheds irrelevant adaptations
Selection takes low gain across the
saddle point
Make a longer ladder
HI
LO High gain collapse
Anticipation
Local toGlobalRatio
Local declines
Globalincrease
Strongest selective pressure
Aerial view of transition from Hi to Lo gain
High Saddle
Niave system sheds irrelevant adaptations
Selection takes low gain across the
saddle point
HI
LO High gain collapse
Anticipation
Local toGlobalRatio
Local declines
Globalincrease
Strongest selective pressure
Aerial view of transition from Hi to Lo gain
High Saddle
Niave system sheds irrelevant adaptations
Selection takes low gain across the
saddle point
HI
LO
CollapseAnticipation
Local toGlobalRatio
Local declines
Globalincrease
Strongest selective pressure
Low gain collapsedue to lost resource
To far down.Not enough Resource to go low gain
The one time To change Course and adapt
No reasonTo be efficient or adapt
No prudenceSince there isNo reason to plan
Jevons’ paradoxmistaken analysis
Jevons’ paradox.Efficiency used To burn gradient
Aerial view showing Low gain collapse and local regions.
Capped by
energetics
Super low gain
squeeze