Katy I.S.D.katyisd.org/abm/Documents/Katy ISD Demographic Report- Dec2017.pdf · Katy ISD Residents (KN- ... FEMA Estimates of Structures Damaged Due to Hurricane ... 11A Treviso

Katy I.S.D.Demographic Update

December 4, 2017

Katy I.S.D. Demographics

Employ-ment

Housing

Students per

Home

Projected Students

2017 Demographic

Update

Numeric Change

Enrollment:

2015-16 to 2016-17

Numeric Change

Enrollment:

2011-12 to 2016-17

Fastest Growth School Districts in

Texas

2015-16 to 2016-17 --Numeric Gain in Students

Numeric Percent1 FRISCO ISD 53,300 55,923 2,623 4.9%

2 KATY ISD 72,952 75,428 2,476 3.4%3 PROSPER ISD 8,296 9,998 1,702 20.5%4 CONROE ISD 58,239 59,764 1,525 2.6%5 ALVIN ISD 22,183 23,587 1,404 6.3%6 KLEIN ISD 50,594 51,810 1,216 2.4%7 LAMAR CISD 29,692 30,829 1,137 3.8%8 COMAL ISD 21,163 22,240 1,077 5.1%9 DENTON ISD 27,559 28,628 1,069 3.9%

10 LEANDER ISD 37,158 38,226 1,068 2.9%11 NORTHWEST ISD 20,976 22,044 1,068 5.1%12 NORTHSIDE ISD 105,110 106,145 1,035 1.0%13 FORT BEND ISD 73,115 74,146 1,031 1.4%14 CY-FAIR ISD 113,936 114,868 932 0.8%15 NEW CANEY ISD 13,816 14,677 861 6.2%

Rank District NameEnrollment 2015-16

Enrollment 2016-17

Growth

Sheet1

RankDistrict NameEnrollment 2015-16Enrollment 2016-17Growth

NumericPercent

1FRISCO ISD53,30055,9232,6234.9%

2KATY ISD72,95275,4282,4763.4%

3PROSPER ISD8,2969,9981,70220.5%

4CONROE ISD58,23959,7641,5252.6%

5ALVIN ISD22,18323,5871,4046.3%

6KLEIN ISD50,59451,8101,2162.4%

7LAMAR CISD29,69230,8291,1373.8%

8COMAL ISD21,16322,2401,0775.1%

9DENTON ISD27,55928,6281,0693.9%

10LEANDER ISD37,15838,2261,0682.9%

11NORTHWEST ISD20,97622,0441,0685.1%

12NORTHSIDE ISD105,110106,1451,0351.0%

13FORT BEND ISD73,11574,1461,0311.4%

14CY-FAIR ISD113,936114,8689320.8%

15NEW CANEY ISD13,81614,6778616.2%

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

KISD: Past Growth Rates

Enro

llmen

t

6.25%6.12%

4.52%3.90%

3.44%

2.92%2.65%

4.11%4.64%

3.73%3.39%

Chart1

51201

54402

56862

59078

60803

62392

64562

67213

70330

72825

75428

77497

Enrollment

Sheet1

200720092011201320152017

Enrollment51,20154,40256,86259,07860,80362,39264,56267,21370,33072,82575,42877,497

Growth2,2563,2012,4602,2161,7251,5892,1702,6513,1172,4952,6032,069

Sheet1

Enrollment

Sheet2

Sheet3

Percent of Public School

Enrollment in Charter Schools

Residents of Katy ISDin Other Types of Schools

Katy ISD Residents (KN-12th):

Attending Katy I.S.D.1 70,881 (95%) 73,226 (94%) 75,321 (94.2%)

Attending Private Schools2 1,876 (2.5%) 1,876 (2.4%) 1,825 (2.3%)

Attending Charter Schools3 1,506 (2%) 2,411 (3.1%) 2,447 (3.1%)

Attending Nearby Districts3 360 (0.5%) 365 (0.5%) 365 (0.5%)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

2 Private school enrollment data collected by Population and Survey Analysts3 Texas Education Agency, PEIMS 2014-15 through 2016-17 (2017-18 based on interviews and estimates)

74,623 77,878 79,958

1 Actual KN-12th district enrollment minus transfer students from other school districts

Sheet1

2014-152015-162016-172017-18

Katy ISD Residents (KN-12th): 74,21874,62377,87879,958

Attending Katy I.S.D.170,330(100%)70,881(95%)73,226(94%)75,321(94.2%)

Attending Private Schools22,175(3.1%)1,876(2.5%)1,876(2.4%)1,825(2.3%)

Attending Charter Schools31,354(1.9%)1,506(2%)2,411(3.1%)2,447(3.1%)

Attending Nearby Districts3359(0.5%)360(0.5%)365(0.5%)365(0.5%)

1 Actual KN-12th district enrollment minus transfer students from other school districts

2 Private school enrollment data collected by Population and Survey Analysts

3 Texas Education Agency, PEIMS 2014-15 through 2016-17 (2017-18 based on interviews and estimates)

KN-12 ALL STUDENTS enrolled in District35619365663762538418

KN-12 OUT OF DISTRICT TRANSFERS IN236245242242

sum charter + other ISDs1,7131,8662,776

control total147415781735

2017 Demographic

Update


Employ-ment

Housing

Students per

Home

Projected Students

Annual Employment Trends

September March September 6-Month Annual2016 2017 2017 Pct. Change Pct. Change

Houston Employment 1,092,467 1,101,083 1,104,806 0.34% 1.13% Unemployment Rate 5.4 5.5 4.7Fort Bend County Employment 341,573 344,088 345,382 0.38% 1.12% Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.5 4.5Harris County Employment 2,135,253 2,152,109 2,159,376 0.34% 1.13% Unemployment Rate 5.7 5.7 4.9Waller County Employment 20,567 20,808 20,711 -0.47% 0.70% Unemployment Rate 5.9 5.7 4.7

Sheet1

SeptemberMarchSeptember6-MonthAnnual

201620172017Pct. ChangePct. Change

Houston

Employment1,092,4671,101,0831,104,8060.34%1.13%

Unemployment Rate5.45.54.7

Fort Bend County

Employment341,573344,088345,3820.38%1.12%


Harris County

Employment2,135,2532,152,1092,159,3760.34%1.13%


Waller County

Employment20,56720,80820,711-0.47%0.70%


Employment & Economic Trends

Retail, Office, Academic, and Amusement Centers Katy Boardwalk: Retail hotel convention center, water park Other entertainment centers at IH-10 at West Park Grandway West 7 office buildings University of Houston w/ Parkside and other apartments

E-Commerce/Distribution Hubs Oakmont Industrial Group Goya Bel Furniture Amazon (just outside District) Rooms to Go (just outside District)

Energy Jobs Oil/gas industry stable and slightly rebounding Hurricane Harvey/Irma/Maria oil-related impacts minimal

2017 Demographic

Update


Employ-ment

Housing

Students per

Home

Projected Students

Housing Projection Methodology

Clay Road

IH-10

Cinco Ranch Blvd

Gra

nd P

kwy

Projections by Subdivisions/Fut. Apartments

Assess Impacts of Local Ordinances

Study Future Infrastructure

Assess Natural Hazards/Inhibitors to Dev.

Transportation ImprovementsInfrastructure Improvements, Such as New Arterials, Propel New Housing Construction

New West of Grand Pkwy. West & Sharp Roads SH 36A Texas Heritage Pkwy.

WideningMorton RanchClayWestpark Tollway

Improvements/Extensions Katy-Hockley Cut-Off Katy-Hockley Pitts Road (extension to N.) Franz Road FM 1463 (extension to I-10) Bartlett Longenbaugh

Housing Starts

3Q 2017 Housing Starts up to 660 starts in K.I.S.D. from 3Q 2016 count of 620 up 6% -- including Hurricane challenges

K.I.S.D. is 4th largest producer of new homes this last year in Houston-The Woodsland Sugar Land Metro Area

Behind Fort Bend I.S.D., Cy-Fair I.S.D., and Lamar C.I.S.D.

Factors Impacting Housing

Majority of remaining growth is in northwest K.I.S.D.: Will face more rigorous enforcement of drainage, but may be aided by new

reservoir Smaller landowners will likely have to merge their plans for flood control

for drainage and detention Larger landowners can plan their own detention Larger landowners can typically develop faster than small landowners

because can plan independently

Number of lots in NW should remain basically the same with or without the reservoir; also, expect smaller lot sizes Less flood plain on remaining acreage w/new reservoir New reservoir decisions and funding may be slow

Recovery from Harvey has likely occurred already for builders

The newest homes were mainly unaffected by Harvey The top 30 builders suggest that they had only 1% to 5% of their inventory

flooded

The Houston area has averaged ~27,000 housing starts per year since 1997 As a result, there will be ~9,500 acres per year needed for new housing

The Harvey housing resale market will be significant in K.I.S.D. somewhat changing the demographics of K.I.S.D.

Factors Impacting Housing (Data from the 3 major K.I.S.D. developers -- and commercial brokers Duane Heckmann & Kirk LaGuardia)

Potential Third Reservoir Location

FEMA Estimates of Structures Damaged Due to Hurricane Harvey

(7,209 Structures Flooded Based on Lot Elevation)

Apartment Complexes Affected by Harvey

LUZ Complex

Units to be Occupied - - OR Re-Occupied

18 Brighton 8029B Abbey at Barker Cypress 20029B Enclave at Central Park 20029B Paramount 9942A Regalla at Bella Terra 33744B Streamsong 14047B Vue Kingsland 11547B Aldeia West 8047B Carroll at Green Trails 27048 Broadstone at Energy Park 39061E Broadstone Falcon Landing 130

Sheet1

LUZComplexUnits to be Occupied -- OR Re-Occupied

18Brighton80

29BAbbey at Barker Cypress200

29BEnclave at Central Park200

29BParamount99

42ARegalla at Bella Terra337

44BStreamsong140

47BVue Kingsland115

47BAldeia West80

47BCarroll at Green Trails270

48Broadstone at Energy Park390

61EBroadstone Falcon Landing130

Largest Single-Family Developments

Elyson

Morton Creek Ranch

Cane Island

Northwest Katy

Treviso Gardens/Camillo Lakes

LUZ Development2017-22

2022-27

2017-27

1, 2, 4C, 4D, 4E Elyson 1,961 2,608 4,569 1 Northwest Katy 267 1,390 1,657 30A, 30, 31B Cane Island 1,140 107 1,247 73A-J Cross Creek Ranch 1,013 11 1,024 11B, 23C Morton Creek Ranch 628 320 948 11A Treviso Gardens 733 - 733 11D Camillo Lakes 489 233 722

Cross Creek Ranch

Sheet1

LUZDevelopment2017-222022-272017-27

1, 2, 4C, 4D, 4EElyson1,9612,6084,569

1Northwest Katy2671,3901,657

30A, 30, 31BCane Island1,1401071,247

73A-JCross Creek Ranch1,013111,024

11B, 23CMorton Creek Ranch628320948

11ATreviso Gardens733- 0733

11DCamillo Lakes489233722

4B, 4FKaty Lakes359275634

Largest Growth Single-Family Developments

Planning Subdivision Names or 2017- 2022- 2017-Unit Owner(s) Names 2022 2027 2027

1, 2, 4C, 4D, 4E Elyson 1961 2,608 4,569 1 Northwest Katy 267 1,390 1,657

20A, 30, 31B Cane Island 1,140 107 1,247 73A, C , D, E, F , G, H, J Cross Creek Ranch 1,013 11 1,024

11B, 23C Morton Creek Ranch 628 320 948 11A Treviso Gardens 733 - 733 11D Camillo Lakes 489 233 722

7C "BGM/Sowell" 187 512 699 6,418 5,181 11,599

13,519 15,029 28,548

Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions):

Total Single-Family Housing Projected:

Sheet1

PlanningSubdivision Names or2017-2022-2017-

UnitOwner(s) Names202220272027

1, 2, 4C, 4D, 4EElyson19612,6084,569

1Northwest Katy2671,3901,657

20A, 30, 31BCane Island1,1401071,247

73A, C, D, E, F, G, H, JCross Creek Ranch1,013111,024

11B, 23CMorton Creek Ranch62832094812

11ATreviso Gardens733- 0733

11DCamillo Lakes489233722

7C"BGM/Sowell"187512699

Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions):6,4185,18111,599

Total Single-Family Housing Projected:13,51915,02928,548

&C&"Arial,Bold"&14Largest New Subdivisions Planned (or Owners Planning to Develop Their Parcels as Single-Family with Greater Than 50% Probability): 2008-2017

Sheet2

Sheet3

Largest Multi-Family Developments

BMG/Sowell

Williamsburg I, II & Parkside

Ten Oaks

Monterrey/Northwest Katy

Westfield Village

AVEX

Broadstone Energy

Multi-Family DevelopmentsPlanning Complex Names or 2017- 2022- 2017-

Unit Owner(s) Names 2022 2027 202734 Williamsburg I & II 270 330 600 7C Westfield Village 130 380 510

1 Monterrey Oaks 50 450 500 7C "BMG/Sowell" 100 350 450

1 "AVEX 314 ac." 60 380 440 48 Broadstone Energy Park 390 - 390

37B Ten Oaks 340 42 382 73I Park Lane Fulshear 280 100 380

1,350 1,702 3,052

8,422 6,553 14,975

Total (Above-Listed Complexes):

Total Multi-Family Housing Projected:

Sheet1

PlanningComplex Names or2017-2022-2017-

UnitOwner(s) Names202220272027

34Williamsburg I & II270330600

7CWestfield Village130380510

1Monterrey Oaks50450500

7C"BMG/Sowell"100350450

1"AVEX 314 ac."6038044012

48Broadstone Energy Park390- 0390

37BTen Oaks34042382

73IPark Lane Fulshear280100380

Total (Above-Listed Complexes):1,3501,7023,052

Total Multi-Family Housing Projected:8,4226,55314,975

&C&"Arial,Bold"&14Largest New Subdivisions Planned (or Owners Planning to Develop Their Parcels as Single-Family with Greater Than 50% Probability): 2008-2017

Sheet2

Sheet3

Oct. 2017-Oct. 2018 2,605 1,115 - 17 3,737 Oct. 2018-Oct. 2019 2,551 1,210 25 20 3,806 Oct. 2019-Oct. 2020 2,471 1,792 60 18 4,341 Oct. 2020-Oct. 2021 2,980 2,101 20 14 5,115 Oct. 2021-Oct. 2022 2,912 2,204 - 17 5,133 Oct. 2022-Oct. 2023 2,808 1,968 - 12 4,788 Oct. 2023-Oct. 2024 2,825 1,712 - 11 4,548 Oct. 2024-Oct. 2025 2,986 1,267 - 10 4,263 Oct. 2025-Oct. 2026 3,056 954 - 8 4,018 Oct. 2026-Oct. 2027 3,354 652 - 8 4,014

Oct 2017-Oct 2022 13,519 8,422 105 86 22,132 Oct 2022-Oct 2027 15,029 6,553 - 49 21,631 Oct 2017-Oct 2027 28,548 14,975 105 135 43,763

Total Projected

Units

Townhomes

+ Condos

Single-Family

Housing

Multi -Family

Housing Senior Living

Projected New Housing Occupancies 2017 2027

Sheet1

Single-Family HousingMulti-Family HousingSenior LivingTownhomes + CondosTotal Projected Units

1,545314,1574,157

1,545314,1574,157

1,545314,1574,157

Oct. 2017-Oct. 20182,6051,115- 0173,737

Oct. 2018-Oct. 20192,5511,21025203,806

Oct. 2019-Oct. 20202,4711,79260184,341

Oct. 2020-Oct. 20212,9802,10120145,115

Oct. 2021-Oct. 20222,9122,204- 0175,133

Oct. 2022-Oct. 20232,8081,968- 0124,788

Oct. 2023-Oct. 20242,8251,712- 0114,548

Oct. 2024-Oct. 20252,9861,267- 0104,263

Oct. 2025-Oct. 20263,056954- 084,018

Oct. 2026-Oct. 20273,354652- 084,014

Oct 2017-Oct 202213,5198,4221058622,132

Oct 2022-Oct 202715,0296,553- 04921,631

Oct 2017-Oct 202728,54814,97510513543,763

1933730540022391

Projected New Housing

OccupanciesSept 2017 to

Oct 2027

Students Withdrawn Due to Hurricane HarveyPrior to October

4, 2017

Withdrawn: 317[Code 5A: 116Code 5B: 212Code 5C: 2,342]

Crisis Code 5C Students Relocated

Due toHurricane Harvey, but

Continuing to Use August Address

[Withdrawn: 317Code 5A: 116Code 5B: 212]Code 5C: 2,342


Employ-ment

Housing

Students per

Home

Projected Students

2017 Demographic

Update

Students per Home

Past Trends in Ratio Growth 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Single-Family 0.80 0.78 0.72 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72

Multi-Family 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.38

Sheet1

Past Trends in Ratio Growth201020112012201320142015201620172016

Single-Family0.800.780.720.730.720.720.720.720.80

Multi-Family0.360.360.370.340.360.370.360.380.27


Employ-ment

Housing

Students per

Home

Projected Students

2017 Demographic

Update

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot Date2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Enrollment 79,579 81,499 83,235 85,068 86,783% Growth 2.64% 2.41% 2.13% 2.20% 2.02%

Growth 2,050 1,920 1,736 1,833 1,715

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot Date2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Enrollment 88,641 90,343 91,955 93,514 95,099% Growth 2.41% 1.92% 1.78% 1.70% 1.69%Growth 1,858 1,702 1,612 1,560 1,585

Moderate Growth

Scenario

Sheet1

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot Date

20182019202020212022

Enrollment79,57981,49983,23585,06886,7839581.93324149499603.35551257479641.92248257719743.43119185729834.5722065482

% Growth2.64%2.41%2.13%2.20%2.02%0.15454722050.22356940440.4015988991.05278495510.9354098458

Growth2,0501,9201,7361,8331,71514.785760509221.422271079838.5669700024101.508709280191.141014691

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot Date

20232024202520262027

Enrollment88,64190,34391,95593,51495,099

% Growth2.41%1.92%1.78%1.70%1.69%

Growth1,8581,7021,6121,5601,585

Three Scenarios of Growth

Enro

llmen

t

ModerateGrowth2022 86,7832027 95,099

High Growth2022 88,7362027 98,970

Low Growth2022 85,7722027 92,160

202760,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

2011 2018

Process for GeneratingStudent Projections

Projections -- by Apt.-- by Subdivision-- by LUZ-- by Year-- by Grade Grp.

Employment

Projected New

Housing Units

Students per Housing

UnitGeocoded

KISD Students

Recent Student Trends

2017-18 Elementary

School Attendance

Zones

Current Enrollment & Projected

Resident StudentsGrades EE-5th

(School Capacity in Parentheses)

2017-18 Junior High School Attendance

Zones

Current Enrollment & Projected Resident

StudentsGrades 6th-8th


2017-18 High School

Attendance Zones

Current Enrollment & Projected Resident

StudentsGrades 9th-12th


Katy I.S.D.Demographic Update

Katy I.S.D.Slide Number 2Slide Number 4Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 12Slide Number 132017 Demographic UpdateSlide Number 16Slide Number 182017 Demographic UpdateSlide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Largest Growth Single-Family DevelopmentsSlide Number 30Multi-Family DevelopmentsSlide Number 32Slide Number 36Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 41Students per HomeSlide Number 43Moderate Growth ScenarioThree Scenarios of GrowthSlide Number 46Slide Number 47Slide Number 48Slide Number 49Slide Number 50Slide Number 51Slide Number 52Katy I.S.D.