The Relationship Between Literacy and Terrorism in Turkey’s Eastern Provinces

Katherine Leswingkl9919a@american.edu

American University

School of International Service

Research Question:

Does the literacy rate in eastern Turkish provinces impact

the number of terrorist attacks provinces experience,

controlling for unemployment rate, access to indoor

plumbing, marital status, and high school education

completion?

Research Hypotheses: H0: There is no relationship between literacy rates and number of

terrorist attacks.

H1: Provinces with lower literacy rates experience more terrorist

attacks.

H2: Provinces with higher literacy rates experience more terrorist

attacks.

A Review of Existing Literature “The Quality of Terror” Ethan Bueno de Mesquita (2005)

Findings: Terrorist organizations screen their recruits to be higher educated, thus one cannot accurately determine if education and socioeconomic are correlated with terrorism.

“Is Terrorism ‘The Poor Man’s Patent’? Evaluating the Connection between Education, Poverty, and Political Violence” Horne & Bloom (2009) Findings: Although terrorist recruits may be higher educated and less poor

than the population who supports terror, the conclusion cannot be drawn that higher socioeconomic and education levels are positively related to the occurrence of terrorism.

GAPS IN THE EXISTING LITERATURE:

• Theoretical gaps: Little distinction between likelihood of individuals participating in terrorism and the emergence of a

terrorist group.

• Empirical gaps: More data analysis is needed of the emergence of terrorist groups worldwide and the socioeconomic and

education backgrounds from which they emerge.

Data Unit of analysis: Provinces in Turkey (34 eastern-most provinces)

Sources: Terrorism Data: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to

Terrorism (START, Dept. of Homeland Security, UMD): Global Terrorism Database Population Data: Turkish Statistical Institute (national census data)

Reliability: Data was found for all 34 provinces Both sources are government-sponsored organizations Gap: Of 2820 terrorist attacks in Turkey from 1970-2011, the exact location of 257

incidences could not be pinpointed.

Dependent Variable (Interval-ratio level of measurement): Number of total terrorist attacks by province; 1970-2011

Independent Variables (all Interval-ratio level of measurement): Literacy rate (15+, 2011), unemployment rate (2000), marriage rate (15+, 2011),

dwellings with an indoor toilet (%, 2011), high school completion (%, 2011)

Descriptive StatisticsDependent Variable: Terrorist Attacks

With a mean of 31.02 and a median of 18, the central tendency is not credible.

There is a higher frequency of higher numbers of terrorist attacks, so the central tendency is skewed to the right.

To remedy this, we take the log of the dependent variable.

terror litr unempr mrate toiletin_p hsed_p

N 34 34 34 34 34 34

Mean 31.02 .92 .11 .54 81.55 .90

p50 18.00 .93 .10 .58 86.17 .91

IQR 30 .04 .05 .07 17.20 .03

Min 0 .88 .05 0 49.71 .79

Max 131 .97 .21 .67 99.53 .92

CV 1.13 .03 .36 .30 .17 .03

SD 35.32 .03 .04 .17 13.60 .03

0.1

.2.3

.4D

ensi

ty

0 1 2 3 4 5lterror

Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Eastern Turkey, 1970-2011Log of Terrorist Attacks by Province

• By transforming the dependent variable the central tendency is now log normal and we can run a regression of our variables.

• One observation is lost in this transformation; the log could not be taken of Bayburt province with 0 terrorist attacks.

Bivariate analysisDependent Variable: Log of Terrorist Attacks

Pearson’s r Significance N Slope Interpretation

litr 0.43 0.00 33 -26.53 • Statistically significant.• Reject the H0. • lterror and litr are moderately negatively correlated.

unempr 0.21 0.00 33 14.60 • Statistically significant.• lterror and litr are weakly positively correlated.

mrate -0.03 0.96 33 0.00 • Statistically insignificant.

toiletin_p -0.03 0.93 33 -0.00 • Statistically insignificant.

tsed_p 0.07 0.06 33 13.17 • Statistically insignificant.

Multivariate Regression AnalysisDependent Variable: Log of Terrorist Attacks

• Literacy rate and number of terrorist incidents are correlated; p = 0.00

• The correlation is negative; when literacy rate decreases, there are more terrorist attacks (coefficient = -26.54).

• The adj. R2 from Model One shows that 43% of the relationship between number of terrorist attacks and literacy rate can be explained.

• Colinearity between literacy and unemployment.

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Model5

Model6

litr -26.54*** (0.00)

-23.41** (0.00)

-23.28** (0.00)

-32.93*** (0.00)

-30.70** (0.00)

unempr 3.92 (0.45)

4.90(0.36)

-0.32 (0.95)

-1.38(0.81)

14.05*(0.01)

mrate -0.86(0.38)

-1.06 (0.26)

-0.08 (0.69)

-0.82 (0.48)

toiletin_p 0.03* (0.04)

0.03(0.05)

-0.00(0.82)

hsed_p 2.76(0.63)

8.23(0.24)

N 33 33 33 33 33 33

Adj. R2 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.48 0.46 0.20

Significance in parentheses. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.00

Interpretation:

Multivariate Regression AnalysisDependent Variable: Log of Terrorist Incidences

•Clear negative linear correlation between incidence of terrorist attack and literacy rate by province.

•Some outliers but the trend indicates that higher literacy rate results in less terrorism.

• Negative linear correlation between incidence of terrorist attack and literacy rate.

• Positive linear correlation between incidence of terrorist attack and unemployment rate.

• Negative linear correlation between literacy rate and unemployment rate.

Interpretation of Graph

Interpretation of Matrix

FindingsAccept H1 Provinces with lower literacy rates experience more terrorist attacks. Reject H0 and H2

There is a significant negative correlation between literacy rates in eastern Turkish provinces and the number of terrorist attacks that occur there.

There is also a statistically significant positive correlation between unemployment rate by province and the incidence of. Terrorism

These findings suggest that policies that improve the quality and access to education, as well as reduce unemployment, in eastern Turkey will reduce the risk of terrorist attacks occurring.

Policy Implications

Number of Terrorist Attacks by ProvinceTurkey, 1970-2011

Legend: Number of Terrorist

Attacks

Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland, Global Terrorism Database, 2011

Number of Terrorist Attacks by ProvinceTurkey, 1970-2011

Legend: Number of

Terrorist Attacks

Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland, Global Terrorism Database, 2011

Unemployment Rate By ProvinceTurkey, 2000

Legend:Unemployment

Rate

0 – 5 %

6 – 10%

11 – 15 %

16 – 20 %

21 – 25 %

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Turkish National Census Data, 2000

Literacy Rate By ProvinceTurkey, 2011

LegendLiteracy Rate

< 87 %

87 – 90%

90.1 – 95 %

95.1 – 98 %

98.1 – 100 %

Legend:Literacy Rate

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, 2011, Address-Based Population Data Set

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Address-Based Population Data Set, 2011

Sources Bloom, M. M. and Horne, C. D. , (2009). “Is Terrorism the “Poor Man's Patent’?: Evaluating the Causal Connection

between Education, Poverty, and Political Violence" ISA's 50th Annual Convention: Exploring the Past, Anticipating the Future. New York, NY. Retrieved from website: http://

citation.allacademic.com/meta/p311565_index.html Bueno de Mesquita, E., (2005). “The Quality of Terror.” American Journal of Political Science,49(3) p. 515-530. Turkish Statistical Institute, (2011). Address based population registration system results. Retrieved from website:

http://tuikapp.tuik.gov.tr/adnksdagitapp/adnks.zul?dil=2 Turkish Statistical Institute, (2000). General population census (genel nüfus sayımı). Retrieved from website: http

://tuikapp.tuik.gov.tr/nufusapp/idari.zul? Global Terrorism Database, (2012). Compiled by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses

to Terrorism, a Center of Excellence of the US Department of Homeland Security at the University of Maryland. College Park, MD. Retrieved from website: http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/