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CMIP5 Update Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Presented to the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling Hamburg, Germany 24 September 2012

Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

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Page 1: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

CMIP5 Update

Karl E. Taylor

Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Presented to the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling

Hamburg, Germany 24 September 2012

Page 2: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Outline

•  Models participating and simulations performed

•  Output archive and user support

•  Scientific impact

•  Remaining priorities

•  What about the future of CMIP?

Page 3: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

CMIP5 participating groups 17 Oct. 2011: 22 models available from 13 groups

IAM Diagnostics Workshop 3 May 2012

Primary Group Country Model CSIRO-BOM Australia ACCESS 1.0, 1.3

BCC China BCC-CSM1.1, 1.1(m) GCESS China BNU-ESM CCCMA Canada CanESM2, CanCM4, CanAM4

DOE-NSF-NCAR USA CCSM4, CESM1 (BGC), (CAM5), (CAM5.1,FV2), (FASTCHEM), (WACCM) RSMAS USA CCSM4(RSMAS) CMCC Italy CMCC- CESM, CM, & CMS

CNRM/CERFACS France CNRM-CM5 CSIRO/QCCCE Australia CSIRO-Mk3.6.0

EC-EARTH Europe EC-EARTH LASG-IAP & LASG-CESS China FGOALS- g2, s2, & gl

FIO China FIO-ESM NASA/GMAO USA GEOS-5 NOAA GFDL USA GFDL- HIRAM-C360, HIRAM-C180, CM2.1, CM3, ESM2G, ESM2M NASA/GISS USA GISS- E2-H, E2-H-CC, E2-R, E2-R-CC, E2CS-H, E2CS-R

MOHC UK Had CM3, CM3Q, GEM2-ES, GEM2-A, GEM2-CC NMR/KMA Korea / UK HadGEM2-AO

INM Russia INM-CM4 IPSL France IPSL- CM5A-LR, CM5A-MR, CM5B-LR

MIROC Japan MIROC 5, 4m, 4h, ESM, ESM-CHEM MPI-M Germany MPI-ESM- HR, LR, P, ESM-P MRI Japan MRI- AGCM3.2H, AGCM3.2S, CGCM3, ESM1 NCC Norway NorESM1-M, NorESM-ME

NCEP USA CFSv2-2011 NICAM Japan NICAM-09 INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3

Page 4: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

CMIP5 participating groups 3 March 2012 41 models available from 20 groups

IAM Diagnostics Workshop 3 May 2012

Primary Group Country Model CSIRO-BOM Australia ACCESS 1.0, 1.3

BCC China BCC-CSM1.1, 1.1(m) GCESS China BNU-ESM CCCMA Canada CanESM2, CanCM4, CanAM4

DOE-NSF-NCAR USA CCSM4, CESM1 (BGC), (CAM5), (CAM5.1,FV2), (FASTCHEM), (WACCM) RSMAS USA CCSM4(RSMAS) CMCC Italy CMCC- CESM, CM, & CMS

CNRM/CERFACS France CNRM-CM5 CSIRO/QCCCE Australia CSIRO-Mk3.6.0

EC-EARTH Europe EC-EARTH LASG-IAP & LASG-CESS China FGOALS- g2, s2, & gl

FIO China FIO-ESM NASA/GMAO USA GEOS-5 NOAA GFDL USA GFDL- HIRAM-C360, HIRAM-C180, CM2.1, CM3, ESM2G, ESM2M NASA/GISS USA GISS- E2-H, E2-H-CC, E2-R, E2-R-CC, E2CS-H, E2CS-R

MOHC UK Had CM3, CM3Q, GEM2-ES, GEM2-A, GEM2-CC NMR/KMA Korea / UK HadGEM2-AO

INM Russia INM-CM4 IPSL France IPSL- CM5A-LR, CM5A-MR, CM5B-LR

MIROC Japan MIROC 5, 4m, 4h, ESM, ESM-CHEM MPI-M Germany MPI-ESM- HR, LR, P, ESM-P MRI Japan MRI- AGCM3.2H, AGCM3.2S, CGCM3, ESM1 NCC Norway NorESM1-M, NorESM-ME

NCEP USA CFSv2-2011 NICAM Japan NICAM-09 INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3

Page 5: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

CMIP5 participating groups 22 Sept. 2012: 59 models available from 24 groups

IAM Diagnostics Workshop 3 May 2012

Primary Group Country Model CSIRO-BOM Australia ACCESS 1.0, 1.3

BCC China BCC-CSM1.1, 1.1(m) GCESS China BNU-ESM CCCMA Canada CanESM2, CanCM4, CanAM4

DOE-NSF-NCAR USA CCSM4, CESM1 (BGC), (CAM5), (CAM5.1,FV2), (FASTCHEM), (WACCM) RSMAS USA CCSM4(RSMAS) CMCC Italy CMCC- CESM, CM, & CMS

CNRM/CERFACS France CNRM-CM5 CSIRO/QCCCE Australia CSIRO-Mk3.6.0

EC-EARTH Europe EC-EARTH LASG-IAP & LASG-CESS China FGOALS- g2, s2, & gl

FIO China FIO-ESM NASA/GMAO USA GEOS-5 NOAA GFDL USA GFDL- HIRAM-C360, HIRAM-C180, CM2.1, CM3, ESM2G, ESM2M NASA/GISS USA GISS- E2-H, E2-H-CC, E2-R, E2-R-CC, E2CS-H, E2CS-R

MOHC UK Had CM3, CM3Q, GEM2-ES, GEM2-A, GEM2-CC NMR/KMA Korea / UK HadGEM2-AO

INM Russia INM-CM4 IPSL France IPSL- CM5A-LR, CM5A-MR, CM5B-LR

MIROC Japan MIROC 5, 4m, 4h, ESM, ESM-CHEM MPI-M Germany MPI-ESM- HR, LR, P, ESM-P MRI Japan MRI- AGCM3.2H, AGCM3.2S, CGCM3, ESM1 NCC Norway NorESM1-M, NorESM-ME

NCEP USA CFSv2-2011 NICAM Japan NICAM-09 INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3

Page 6: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

CMIP5 timeline retrospective:

•  2006: Planning began in earnest.

•  Fall 2008: Experiment design approved by WGCM

•  January 2010: Experiment details in place

•  March 2011: Output requirements and list of requested output finalized

•  April 2011: First model output available

•  August 2011: RCP forcing datasets finalized

•  March 2012: A petabyte of data stored in 2,000,000 files

•  July 2012: More than 200 publications based on CMIP5 output in some stage of publication

•  Now: 59 models available from 24 modeling centers; 1.7 PB in 4x106 files

•  CMIP5 research just beginning

15

mon

ths

Page 7: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

“Long-term” experiments: output available, as of (March 3 and) Sept. 22, 2012

Experiment(s) # of models

* Control & historical (29) 48

* AMIP (18) 28

* RCP4.5 & 8.5 (24) 40

RCP2.6 (21) 29

RCP6 (15) 22

RCP’s to year 2300 ?

* 1% CO2 increase (21) 32

* Fixed SST CO2 forcing diagnosis (10) 12

* Abrupt 4XCO2 diagnostic (20) 30

* Core simulations

Experiment(s) # of models

Fast adjustment diagnostic ?

Aerosol forcing (6) 9

*ESM cntrl, hist. & RCP8.5 (8) 13

Carbon cycle feedback isolation (7) 10

Mid-Holocene (11) 13

LGM (4) 7

Millenium (6) 7

CFMIP runs (6) 10

D & A runs (16) 17

Page 8: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

“Decadal” experiments: Output available, as of (March 3 and) Sept. 22, 2012

Experiment(s) Number of models

*Hindcasts and predictions (14) 18

AMIP (7) ?

Volcano-free hindcasts (1) 2

2010 “Pinatubo-like” eruption (1) 3

Initialization alternatives ?

Pre-industrial control (12) ?

1% CO2 increase (7) ?

* Core simulations simulations

Page 9: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Data from providers to users: Modeling group

•  Save/calculate CMIP-requested variables

•  Rewrite data in conformance with CMIP-imposed data standards

•  Place data on a server

•  Install “Earth System Grid” (ESG) software to make data uniformly accessible from all models

•  “Publish” data to the CMIP5 distributed database

Page 10: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Data from providers to users: PCMDI & the ESG Federation

•  Provide CMOR software and tables:

  For rewrite of model output

  Enforce conformance with standards

  Perform first-order QC

•  Provide software to modeling groups and data centers:

  “Publish” data

  Installs protocols allowing external users to download data (http, gridftp, opendap??)

  Enable replication

•  Provide “portal” software where user can

  Search distributed archive

  Download CMIP output (either point-and-click, or with wget scripts)

Page 11: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Evolution of operational ESG: CMIP3

climate modeling centers

data users (climate model analysts worldwide)

•  Data shipped to PCMDI on hard disks

•  Delayed availability •  Hindered corrections

Cetner 1

Center 2

Center 3

Center 4

Center 5

PCMDI (data server, catalog,

web interface)

•  Search through web gateway

•  Download from single location (ftp, http)

Page 12: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Evolution of operational ESG: CMIP5 (until recently)

•  ESG software architecture similar to CMIP3, but

  Data distributed worldwide at “data nodes”

  Catalogs of data were hosted at gateways

  Gateways shared catalog information

  Users accessed data through gateways

•  ESG limitations

  Search engine hopelessly slow

  Gateways often inaccurate in reporting data holdings

  Overly monolithic structure of gateway software impaired timely •  Modification to correct performance issues and bugs •  Implementation of enhancements needed for CMIP5 (e.g., model

documentation)

•  ESG Federation formed (spring of 2010) to develop alternative

Page 13: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Evolution of operational ESG: CMIP5 peer-to-peer ESGF •  P2P timeline

  Spring 2010: conception   Spring 2011: unanimous decision to transition to p2p system for CMIP5

(when ready)   Fall 2011: Prototype system ready for testing   August 2012: user comment -- “The new portal is wonderful! In one afternoon

work achieved more than several weeks work with the old system.”   September 2012: Old gateways deprecated; P2P now operational

•  Peer-to-peer (p2p) architecture is designed to be

  Scalable to data needs of future   Simplified and modularized to enable nimble modification   Open-source to attract contributions and resources across the community   Easy to interface to (by API’s)   Multiple, fast search options (including simple http inquiry outside user

interface)

See pcmdi9.llnl.gov

Page 14: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Additional resources available for users

•  Model documentation (Eric Guilyardi’s talk)

•  CMIP5 website – see “Guide to CMIP5” (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/guide_to_cmip5.html)

•  Table of forcings used in each historicalMisc

•  Links to modeling centers

•  CMIP5 journal publications recorded and searchable (http://cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/publications/allpublications)

Page 15: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Record of CMIP5 publications

Page 16: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

List of CMIP5 publications

Page 17: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Click on “citation” and “more information” to expand to:

Page 18: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Different subsets of information can be displayed.

Page 19: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

List of CMIP5 publications

Page 20: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Additional resources available for users

•  Model documentation (Eric Guilyardi’s talk)

•  CMIP5 website – see “Guide to CMIP5” (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/guide_to_cmip5.html)

•  Table of forcings used in each historicalMisc

•  Links to modeling centers

•  CMIP5 journal publications recorded and searchable (http://cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/publications/allpublications)

•  Obs4MIPs coordinated with CMIP5 (Peter Gleckler’s talk)

Page 21: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

What’s being done to enhance CMIP5 data services?

Well along:

•  p2p ESG interface to model and experiment documentation

•  Replication of subset of data (redundancy, improved performance, server-side calculations)

•  Additional methods to download (gridFTP, ftp of a subset)

•  Service to inform users of availability of new datasets of interest

Page 22: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

What’s being done to enhance CMIP5 data services?

In development:

•  Sub-setting and server-side computation

•  Service to tell users whether their files have been withdrawn/replaced

•  Method of recording provenance of data used in CMIP5 publications (e.g., doi assignment and other options)

•  Scalable method of reporting/notifying users of errors in data, but at present:http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/errata/cmip5errata.html

•  Improved automated QC

Page 23: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Remarks on CMIP’s future

•  Value of multi-model ensemble has been established

•  CMIP has subjected models to wider scrutiny

•  Resources devoted to CMIP tax modeling groups heavily

Suggestion:

•  Establish a set of benchmark experiments that would

  Be done anyway by most groups as part of the development cycle.

  Evolve only slowly

  Be revisited whenever a new model was developed

•  Additional, specialized intercomparisons would build on these and make use of the same standards and infrastructure.

Page 24: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Start with essential CMIP benchmark experiments (omitting decadal prediction for now)

AMIP

piControl

abrupt4xCO2

1pctCO2

esmFixClim1

Atmosphere only

All coupled models

coupled carbon-climate models only

Page 25: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Include historical run for baseline detection & attribution experiments

AMIP

piControl

abrupt4xCO2

1pctCO2

historical

sstClim, sstClimAerosol

esmFixClim1

Page 26: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

Special interest MIP’s would fit in but might not be revisited with every model version.

AMIP

piControl

abrupt4xCO2

1pctCO2

historical

sstClim, sstClimAerosol CFMIP

esmFixClim1

PMIP

Page 27: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI WGCM - 16 23 September 2012 K. E. Taylor

RCP runs (or their successors) would only be performed when needed for IPCC assessments

AMIP

piControl

abrupt4xCO2

1pctCO2

historical

sstClim, sstClimAerosol CFMIP

“RCP’s”

esmFixClim1

PMIP

Page 28: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23

PCMDI K. E. Taylor

IAM Diagnostics Workshop 3 May 2012

CMIP website:

http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov

(or search on “CMIP5”)

Page 29: Karl E. Taylor - World Climate Research Programme · Karl E. Taylor Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ... INPE Brazil BESM OA2.3 . WGCM - 16 PCMDI 23