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Jahangir World Times

Published: pril, 2013

Gwadar Port: Geo-economic and Geostrategic

Dimensions

Gwadar has geostrategic significance as it lies on the conduit of three most

commercially important regions of the world. Gwadar has geostrategic

significance as it lies on the conduit of three most commercially important

regions of the world. he oil rich !iddle "ast, #entral $sia %estowed with

natural resources, and &outh $sia ha'ing the potential for growth, for thiscentury.

Another Test or Another Trap

Monday, April 01, 2013

The awarding of the multi-billion dollar contract for construction and operation of Gwadar ort to!hina "#erseas ort $olding !ompany %!"$!&, a state-run !hinese firm, in 'ebruary this year,
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has added a new chapter in decades-long (ino-a) partnership* The pro+ect is mutually beneficialfor both countries in the region for it will not only gi#e them a corridor for greater commercialacti#ity but will also bring closer the !entral Asian countries* t is also epected to earn them agreat strategic le#erage* The recent agreement is the part of a plan to open up an energy and tradecorridor from the Gulf region, across a)istan to western !hina*

The transfer of pro+ect operations to !hina caught attention of the international media and triggereddiscourse on the economic and strategic shift that the presence of !hina tends to induce in one ofthe world.s ma+or maritime /ones* aturally, it raised concerns of ma+or sta)eholders in the ndian"cean, particularly a)istan.s eastern neighbour, ndia, and the nited (tates*

t was March 2002, when the groundbrea)ing of Gwadar ort mar)ed the eecution of the decades-old plan of a)istan to build a deepwater seaport %anama port& at its coastline in alochistan

pro#ince* $ighlighting the paramount geo-economic and geostrategic significance of the port, thethen president er#e/ Musharraf said

4The Gwadar port shall pro#ide modern, up-to-date facilities for cargo #essels in line with modern

ports* The coastal highway which is also being constructed simultaneously with the port, willpro#ide a #ery healthy lin)age between 5arachi and Gwadar ports* f we see this whole region, it isli)e a funnel* The top of the funnel is this wide area of !entral Asia and also !hina.s western region*And this funnel gets narrowed on through Afghanistan and in a)istan northern areas into a)istanand goes through a)istan and the end of this funnel is Gwadar port* (o this funnel, futuristically, isthe future economic funnel of this whole region* All the top of this funnel, the broad top of thefunnel, anything going into it or out of it, a)istan and Gwadar port pro#ides the real input, the inletand the outlet into it* There is no doubt that Gwadar port, when operational, will play the role of aregional hub for trade and commercial acti#ity*6

The port was established with the help of a !hinese construction company and the first phase of thepro+ect was completed with initial in#estment of 278 million dollars in a record time of four years*After completion of the first phase of the pro+ect, the operational contract was gi#en to the ort of(ingapore Authority %(A& through open bidding in 2009* "wing to some unforeseen reasons, the(A epressed reser#ations on in#esting the agreed amount in fi#e years time* Also, it failed tooperationali/e the port as epected and agreed in the contract* :ater on, a)istan offered theoperational contract to !hina which the latter re+ected*

;ith the changing dynamics of regional politics and the global shift that has ta)en places duringpast couple of years, apparently, three )ey factors compelled !hina to opt for ta)ing the operationalcommand of the Gwadar port* 'irst, the increasing ( influence in the Asia-acific poses

considerable economic and strategic challenges to !hina* (econd, Gwadar port pro#ides !hina withan alternati#e route and eases its reliance on (trait of Malacca* Third, the epected withdrawal ofthe ( forces from Afghanistan by 2017 is going to pro#ide other countries a room for economic#entures Afghanistan as well as the !entral Asian

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:an)a? a port in !hittagong, angladesh and a port and pipeline comple off Myanmar.s coast in

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!hina hea#ily relies on the Middle Dast for energy resources and hence the country is in#ol#ed intrade, eploitation and de#elopment here and in African region* The Gwadar port can pro#ide the!hinese with a listening post to obser#e the na#al acti#ities of ( in the ersian Gulf 7E0 )mfurther west of 5arachi and away from ndian na#al bases* n military and strategic terms, Gwadar

port can help !hina to monitor the (:"!s from the ersian Gulf* Gwadar has strategic importancefor !hina as about E0 per cent of its crude supply comes from Gulf countries that are close toGwadar* esides, owing to historical affiliations with ndian "cean region, !hina considers it itsright to be associated with e#ery acti#ity in the ndian "cean*

Along with opportunities, a number of challenges and ris)s are also in#ol#ed in the Gwadar port

pro+ect for both a)istan and !hina* aloch nationalists. stance towards the pro+ect and thecontinued unrest in alochistan needs to be dealt with carefully and sensiti#ely* !hina, whileepanding its influence in the ndian "cean, may also come across the problem of distance forshipping acti#ity* The unrest in alochistan may also pose some security-related ris)s andchallenges to de#elopment acti#ity in Gwadar* Moreo#er, !hina needs to be cautious and consciousof its internal economic and political wea)nesses which, at certain point, may cause trouble to itsgreater interests in the ndian "cean*

As the Gwadar port pro+ect will re=uire time to be fully functional, speculations and predictions will)eep circulating and resonating in the media and policy circles of ma+or sta)eholders* e#ertheless,the port is destined to change the future course of commercial acti#ity in the region*

The writer is an < analyst and a #isiting faculty at the 'aculty of (ocial (ciences, (haheed Fulfi)arAli hutto nstitute of (cience and Technology %(FA(T&, 5arachi*Dmail coldpath1gmail*com

abiha Gul
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()$* G$& P(P"+(*" P+((#&

+ong-awaited Gas Pipeline agreement has %een finally ined %y (ran andPaistan. oth countries signed historic deal partly out of feeling of (slamic

solidarity, to tae Paistan out of energy crisis, and partly to frustrate /estern

countries imposed isolation on (ran in the name of nuclear programme.



The gas pipeline is not the only one that will limit to a)istan and it is not the only pipeline which isthreatened by the ( sanctions* n 1@@2, Tehran had offered assistance in the construction of a gas

pipeline to carry Tur)men gas to Tur)ey and ;estern Durope through ran* The idea of such apipeline, costing H 3 billion, upset ;ashington, which tried to sabotage it* Thus under the (pressure, it was announced that the plan was being held in abeyance since international ban)erswere unwilling to finance a pro+ect in#ol#ing ran* A fear was also epressed that ran, for politicalreasons could turn off energy supplies to Tur)ey and Durope, thus playing with the future of the

two*

n 1@@, a re#ersal for America occurred when Tur)ish rime Minister ecmettin Drba)an signed aH 20 billion natural gas deal with ran* This deal was scheduled to run for twenty-fi#e years* A

pipeline was to be laid to carry initially 3 billion cubic meters of ranian gas annually, rising to 10billion cubic meters in 200*

!onfident of their oil and gas wealth, Tur)menistan and 5a/a)hstan continued to defy ;ashington.spolicy of economic boycott of ran* n Cecember 1@@9, ranian resident Muhammad 5hatami andTur)men resident iya/o# inaugurated a pipeline to carry natural gas from Tur)menistan.s5orpe+e gasfield to 5ord-5ui in northeast ran* 'urther to that, in Iune 1@@8, the ational ranian

"il !ompany in#ited bids for a H 700 million contract for a 700-)ilometer %20 miles& pipelinebetween the !aspian port of abol (ar and Tehran, to carry oil supplied by tan)ers to 5a/a)hstanand Tur)menistan* The pipeline was designed to handle 200,000 bpd, with ran eporting the same

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amount from its Gulf ports to the customers of 5a/a)hstan and Tur)menistan*

n Iuly 2009, ranian and Tur)ish energy ministers signed a memorandum of understanding underwhich Tur)men and ranian gas would be eported to Durope through Tur)ey* Moreo#er, Tur)eywould also de#elop three later phases of ran.s giant (outh ars gas field of Tehran.s buybac)scheme* This Mo was .a dream come. true for Tur)ey as she was a pi#otal country for the transfer

of energy from one part of the world to the other* $owe#er, the document drew a =uic)condemnation from the ( (tate Cepartment* :i)e his predecessor Drba)an, Tur)ish rimeMinister Drdogan rebuffed ;ashington*

ran-a)istan %& Gas ipeline is one of the pro+ects in ranian historical perspecti#e* $owe#er, inthis pro+ect, a)istan is )eeping high ambitions for the resolution of its energy crisis and as a result

political stability* a)istan is short of 7000 M; electricity which has impaired its already shabbyeconomy* ower brea)downs ha#e badly blighted the country.s economy by dawdling industrial

production, deteriorating the country.s agricultural capacity and ha#ing a detrimental brunt onbusiness* n a cyclical manner, laying off has resulted in declining purchasing power resulting inreduction of daily- wagers* $ence the po#erty le#el is on the rise* The growing dependence on

costly furnace oil, with H 1 billion per year import, for the production of thermal power continues toraise electricity charges*a)istan is )eeping high ambitions for the resolution of its energy crisis and as a result politicalstability*"nce the shortfall is compensated, a)istan will regain political stability which will be supported

by the strengthening of its political economy, enhanced industrial output, bringing bac) laid offwor)ers, foreign in#estment and o#er and abo#e shrin) po#erty le#el* The imported gas from ranwould allow the generation of additional 7,123 megawatts of electricity at cheaper rate* t will alsorestore the 2,232 megawatts of idle thermal power generation capacity that will help, in addition tothe domestic gas, for other uses such as manufacturing fertili/er and supplying gas to domesticconsumers* ;hile a)istan would pay ran H3 billion a year, it would reduce its oil imports by H*3

billion, resulting in a net annual reduction in energy imports by about H2*3 billion*

The energy crisis in a)istan has become a =uestion of life and death for the sur#i#al of the state*$ence success of the pro+ect is the dire need for the sur#i#al of the country* "nce, successful,ndia which is already facing energy crisis, will gi#e a second thought to re+oin the pro+ect what wasoriginally called ran-a)istan-ndia %& ipeline* After an echange of M' status, it will beanother milestone in pro#iding the two arch-ri#als to resol#e their mutual suspicions and conflicts

#ia economic means* Thus it would be another !onfidence uilding Measure %!M& that will resultin true sense of 4A eace ipeline6* o doubt, a successful pro+ect attracts the attention of e#erycountry interested in cashing the booty of a ready-made #enture* !hina can +oin the pro+ect #ia

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a)istan which will in turn bring significant economic benefits from the deal for a)istan*The ( threat of sanctions against a)istan is a definite bluff* $owe#er, The ( can use (audiArabia and Batar to eert pressure on a)istan to abandon the pro+ect*$owe#er, there are serious hurdles in the way of becoming functional, the most important being

a stiff opposition from the (* The ( wants to strangulate the ranian economy through sanctionsand imposed isolation on Tehran* ;hile brandishing the threat of sanctions against a)istan, we

need to gingerly weigh their possible effects* At the moment, the ( is about to withdraw its troopsfrom Afghanistan and the cheapest way out is #ia a)istan* (econdly, peace and reconstruction ofJinAfghanistan is in its absolute embryonic stage* a)istan- being a frontline ally of the ( during thewar on terror in Afghanistan played a pi#otal role in the eecution of the ( ob+ecti#es in theregion* e it a onn !onference in 2011 or negotiations with the Taliban, it has always been seenthat any effort in Afghanistan minus a)istan is doomed to fail* Therefore, a)istan.s help is a

prere=uisite in restoring long-lasting peace in the post-2017 Afghanistan* Thirdly, in a)istan, pro-American sentiments are etremely rare* The ( sanctions will add fuel to the fire* $ence, the (threat of sanctions against a)istan is a definite bluff* $owe#er, the ( can use (audi Arabia andBatar to eert pressure on a)istan to abandon the pro+ect* (till, this will depend on what theyoffer in reciprocation to an already pursued and half completed pro+ect*

Gone are the days when the etra-territorial ma+or powers. !old ;ars used to ta)e place in thisregion* The animosity between ran and the ( is a bilateral issue which must not hinder thede#elopment process of other regional countries* a)istan and ndia are arch-ri#als* ut the (ignored this fact and signed a nuclear deal with ndia* (imilarly, any pressure by the ( on a)istanfor the pro+ect will tantamount to the negation of its own trend of bilateralism that she set in thisregion* 'or an animosity between ran and the (, a)istan must not bear the brunt* D#erybody foroneself and God for us all*

The writer teaches at the Cepartment of nternational

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$s the maority of coalition forces prepare to withdraw from $fghanistan at the

close of 201, concerns are growing for the future of the detainees they must

lea'e %ehind.



Curing the course of the twel#e-year war, AT" troops ha#e apprehended thousands of suspectedinsurgents, most of whom ha#e been released or transferred to the Afghan authorities* $owe#er,renewed fears regarding the pre#alence of torture in Afghan custody ha#e compelled (A' forces tohalt the process of handing prisoners o#er to the Afghan authorities*

n a damning report, released in 'ebruary, the nited ations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan%AMA& concluded that torture is an Kinstitutional policy or practiceK in at least ten of thecountry.s detention facilities* The methods include beatings, suspension from the ceiling and electricshoc)s* Transferring prisoners to face such conditions is a breach of international law* ut as (A'remains tied to a fied timetable for military withdrawal, the need to find a legal solution to

prisoner transfer, by getting rid of institutional mistreatment, grows e#er more pressing*

'or the ritish go#ernment, the issue is a particularly thorny one, and its approach to transfers hasdrawn sharp criticism, both from human rights groups and lawyers acting on behalf of prisonerswho faced mistreatment after being transferred from ritish custody*

"n 2@ o#ember 2012, Cefence (ecretary hilip $ammond was forced to re-impose a thirdmoratorium on the transfer of 5-detained prisoners to the Afghan intelligence ser#ice %C(&* Asof "ctober 2010, the 5 had detained 1,3@@ indi#iduals, of whom at least 789 were transferred tothe Afghan authorities* Today, the number remaining in ritish custody is belie#ed to stand around90*

$ammond.s decision to ban transfers came after two years spent defending the practice of releasingdetainees into a penal system where abuse has been described as widespread* The day before a highcourt hearing into the legality of a pre#ious transfer that had resulted in allegations of sustainedabuse, the Cefence (ecretary obtained new %as yet undisclosed& e#idence suggesting that prisonerstransferred to Afghanistan.s ational Cirectorate of (ecurity %C(& were indeed at Kreal ris) ofserious mistreatment or a flagrant denial of +usticeK*

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The ban on prisoner transfer appears to ha#e been #indicated by the new AMA report* Afterinter#iewing E3 inmates held across 8@ detention facilities, representati#es concluded that theculture of abuse was most pre#alent within C( 5andahar, a )ey destination for 5-detained

prisoners once they ha#e been transferred*

(o far, the ritish go#ernment has aimed to minimise the ris)s facing detainees by using a two-

pronged strategy* This strategy in#ol#ed .diplomatic assurances. from the Afghan security ser#icesthat the indi#iduals in =uestion will remain free from harm, while at the same time, monitoring andencouraging the use of sur#eillance within detention centres*

The practice of stri)ing diplomatic deals regarding torture has long been contro#ersial* Amnestynternational has condemned the practice as a dereliction of both states. duty to ta)e the o#erallthreat of torture seriously* The specific focus on the treatment of indi#idual detainees, Amnestyargues, ignores a wider picture of abuse in which confessions are regularly etracted throughmistreatment* Amnesty has also pointed out that diplomatic assurances are not legally binding andnot only that, but they ha#e no enforcement mechanisms* This lea#es the go#ernments in#ol#ed to#oluntarily assume responsibility for in#estigating breaches and holding perpetrators to account* n

the case of Afghanistan, le#els of accountability for mistreatment remain #ery low* According to therecent AMA report, o#er the last 18 months, AT" representati#es ha#e reported 80 allegationsof detainee abuse to Afghan authorities* To date, Afghan officials ha#e only ta)en action o#er onecase*After (A' nations resumed transfers to these facilities and reduced its monitoring, incidents oftorture appeared to rise once again*ritain.s latest agreement with Afghanistan regarding the treatment of prisoners was signed in alow-)ey meeting between Asadullah 5halid, head of the C(, and a representati#e from the ritish'oreign "ffice* To say that 5halid is seen by many to be a deeply flawed interlocutor is putting itlightly he has been described by !anadian diplomats as someone .)nown to personally torture

people. in a .dungeon under his guest house.*

The worth of 5halid.s assurances against the use of torture is monitored by a team of ritishmilitary personnel* They conduct inter#iews with 5-transferred prisoners, =uestioning them abouttheir detention eperience and gi#ing them an opportunity to register any allegations ofmistreatment* $owe#er, critics argue that ritish monitoring efforts are at best ineffecti#e, and atworst, lead to a systematic co#er-up of abuse* The human rights charity L has documentedeamples of ritish monitors finding torture e=uipment in interrogation rooms, but saying nothingout of fear of .causing a scene.* More concerning still is that AMA this wee) reported recei#ingKsufficiently reliable and credible information that officials hid detainees from internationalobser#ers and held them in underground or other locationsK

This is not to say that monitoring does not ha#e an impact* AMA obser#ed that some C(facilities saw a decrease in allegations of torture during the one-year period in which the inter#iewstoo) place* This corresponded with a decrease in transfers by international military forces andincreased monitoring* $owe#er, after (A' nations resumed transfers to these facilities and reducedits monitoring, incidents of torture appeared to rise once again* Monitoring is a useful and necessarystage in the =uest to eradicate torture in Afghan detention facilities* t is not, howe#er, a sil#er

bullet*

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ritain.s repeated bans on prisoner transfer to the Afghan authorities ha#e led to a shift instrategy when it comes to detentions* Military operations are usually conducted in con+unction withAfghan forces, and it is now the latter that is epected to ta)e charge of any arrests*

ut this does not sol#e the problem of what to do with the prisoners who remain in ritish custody*(pea)ing at a press conference in 5abul on Monday, Georgette Gagnon, AMA.s Cirector of$uman

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ayyera $a=, rdu (po)esperson of the ( (tate Cepartment, comes from a family of un+abidescent with roots in Multan and :ahore* (he holds a Master.s degree from Georgetown ni#ersitywhere she ser#ed as a 'ellow of Iournalism and :aw* (he has been the student of history inni#ersity of Michigan, one of the top uni#ersities of the world* n her recent #isit to a)istan,Iahangir.s ;orld Times had an eclusi#e inter#iew with her*

7: - 8ery warm welcome to Paistan !s 5a69 (ts a pri'ilege to ha'e an inter'iew with thespoesperson of the 4& &tate Department who is of Paistan origin. indly tell us a little %it

a%out yourself;

$ns: -Than) you for gi#ing me an opportunity to interact with people of a)istan through yourprestigious maga/ine* As you )now, am currently ser#ing as the ( (tate Cepartment.s rduspo)esperson* At that position, am a (enior Ad#isor to the (tate Cepartment focusing oncommunicating issues important to (outh Asia, especially a)istan* re#iously, ha#e ser#ed as amedia ad#isor to Ceputy (ecretary of (tate Thomas ides, Ambassador $olbroo)e, formerTreasury (ecretary Timothy Geithner and !ongressional :eader ancy elosi*

7: - /hat are your responsi%ilities as 4& &tate Departments 4rdu spoesperson, and whythe need was felt to appoint an 4rdu spoesperson at the &tate Department;

$ns:-o doubt, my roots are in a)istan but grew up and completed my studies in the nited(tates* As a spo)esperson of the (tate Cepartment, ha#e to enhance the relations betweenAmerican and the a)istani people* Nou would be aware of the fact that there is hardly anyAmerican #oice in a)istani media* D#en if there are some, those are not in rdu*

At the (tate Cepartment, we want that relationship with a)istan should not only be with thego#ernment but also with the people of a)istan so that we can understand each other in a betterway and foster our relationship*

7: &o you are designated to enhance people to people contacts and esta%lish communication

channel. /hats the message you ha'e %rought for the people of Paistan;

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$ns: - ha#e brought the message from the people of the nited (tates that America.s relationshipwith a)istan is #ery important* t.s a historical relationship and its continuation is in the interest of

both the nations*

7: - he e

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$ns=-D#eryone in the nited (tates ac)nowledges that no other country has sacrificed so much asa)istan* a)istan has been se#erely affected by terrorism* The menace of terror has hit this entireregion* n fact, etremism is increasing in the world despite relentless efforts to curb it* The nited(tates came under such attac) in 2001 that ga#e birth to this crisis* ow, it is in the interest of all ofus to +oin hands against the rising etremism and terrorism across the globe* ;e ha#e not forgotten

prosperity and de#elopment of a)istani people at all* 'or this purpose, immediate steps li)epromotion of trade and pro#ision of energy are necessary*

7=- President %ama has %een re-elected. he &ecretary of &tate, &ecretary Defense, Director

of #($, etc. are newcomers. /hat are the policy perspecti'es of President %ama, in his

second term, on Paistan;

$ns:- The a)-( relations are spread o#er many decades* "ur philosophy behind the bilateralrelations with a)istan is #ery clear* ;e thin) that these relations are important and must continue*The new (ecretary of (tate, (enator Iohn 5erry, is a great friend of a)istan* $e is the one whostarted human assistance programme for a)istan* $opefully, under his leadership at the (tate

Cepartment, the bilateral relations will be strengthened* want to tell you from the ( perspecti#ethat a)istani people ha#e sacrificed a lot and we ac)nowledge this fact* Dlimination of terrorism isin mutual interest of a)istan and the nited (tates* say it again that these relations must be basedon the mutual interests* The ( go#ernment rarely finds an opportunity to communicate its messagedirectly to the people of a)istan* There should be a transparency in it so that the people can assessthemsel#es whether the nited (tates has done something for them or not*

7=- $ reconciliation process is going on inside $fghanistan. /hether the 4nited &tates is

holding tals with the ali%an;

$ns:-The ob+ecti#e of the nited (tates has always been to encourage an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process* Afghanistan is the homeland of Afghans and only they ha#e to decide aboutthe fate of their country* As far as the tal)s between #arious Afghan groups are concerned, would

+ust say that the nited (tate always supports reconciliation*I;T Ces)

Papal #oncla'e he "lection of 2>>th

&uccessor of &t. Peter

he retirement of enedict ?8( on @e% 2A was the first time in nearly >00 years

that a pope stepped down.


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This situation forced the

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Dach cardinal then wal)s to the altar, holding up his folded ballot so it can be seen, and says aloud

K call as my witness !hrist the :ord who will be my +udge that my #ote is gi#en to the one whobefore God thin) should be elected*K

$e places his ballot on a plate, or paten, and then slides it into a receptacle, traditionally a large

chalice*

;hen all the ballots ha#e been cast, the first scrutineer sha)es the receptacle to mi them* $e thentransfers the ballots to a new urn, counting them to ma)e sure they correspond to the number ofelectors*

The ballots are read out* Dach of the three scrutineers eamines each ballot one-by-one, with the lastscrutineer calling out the name on the ballot, so all the cardinals can record the tally* The lastscrutineer pierces each ballot with a needle through the word KDligoK and places it on a thread, sothey can be secured*

After the names ha#e been read out, the #otes are counted to see if someone has obtained a two-thirds ma+ority needed for election -- or a simple ma+ority if the rules are changed later in theconcla#e* The re#isers then double-chec) the wor) of the scrutineers for possible mista)es*

At this point, any handwritten notes made by the cardinals during the #ote are collected for burningwith the ballots* f the first #ote of the morning or e#ening session is inconclusi#e, a second #otenormally follows immediately, and the ballots from both #otes are burned together at the end*

;hen a pope is elected, the ballots are burned immediately* y tradition, the ballots are burned dry-- or with chemical additi#es -- to produce white smo)e when a pope has been elected? they are

burned with damp straw or other chemicals to produce blac) smo)e when the #oting has beeninconclusi#e*

The most notable change introduced by ope Iohn aul into the #oting process was to increasethe opportunity of electing a pope by simple ma+ority instead of two-thirds ma+ority, after a series of

ballots* The two-thirds ma+ority rule holds in the first phase of the concla#e three days of #oting,then a pause of up to one day, followed by se#en ballots and a pause, then se#en more ballots and a

pause, and se#en more ballots*

At that point -- about 12 or 13 days into the concla#e -- the cardinals can decide to mo#e to a simplema+ority for papal election and can limit the #oting to the top two #ote-getters* n earlier concla#es,

switching to a simple ma+ority re=uired appro#al of two-thirds of the cardinals, but now thatdecision can be made by simple ma+ority, too*I;T Ces)

n ies with (ndia

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5istorically speaing, Pa-(ndia %ilateral relations ha'e predicta%ly %een

unpredicta%le. he more %oth countries seem to mae headway the more pitfalls

they ha'e to contend with in trying to negotiate this fragile and 'olatile

relationship.



Iust at a time when all was set for the third round of composite dialogue between slamabad andew Celhi, the incidents at the :ine of !ontrol %:o!& upset the applecart* sing these incidents as+ustification to delay his planned #isit to a)istan, ndian rime Minister Cr Manmohan (ingh was=uic) to opine that it was not possible for the !ongress-led coalition go#ernment to ha#e .businessas usual. with a)istan*

;hile the a)istani leaders, foreign office, media and opinion-ma)ers showed maturity in dealingwith the ensuing crisis at the :o!, their counterparts in ndia resorted to their usual tric)s of playingto gallery* Though the composite dialogue process was not halted, which has been the usual practicewhen faced with spanners in the normali/ation wor)s, a #isible slowdown in the bilateral relationswas clearly discernible* ew Celhi cancelled the (ecretary-le#el tal)s to discuss ;ullar arrage

issue and put a stopper on ma)ing operational the new #isa regime* t also ordered a)istani hoc)eyplayers to lea#e the ndian soil immediately*

As a reaction, slamabad, which was all set to grant the status of Most 'a#oured ation to ndia byCecember 2012 had to defer its decision*

efore lea#ing office near the end of tenure, 'oreign Minister $ina

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This nicely sums up the situation*

A re#iew of a)istan.s ndia policy re#eals that ew Celhi has failed to ma)e good use ofetraordinary consensus among the sta)eholders in the country on the need of impro#ing relationswith its eastern archri#al* The following is instructi#e in this regard

t was in Iune 1@@9 that the composite dialogue framewor), which had eight points includingIammu P 5ashmir, was launched* a)istan made progress on composite dialogue framewor)conditional to the resolution of the core issue of Iammu P 5ashmir, while ndia fa#oured asimultaneous progress on all issues contained in the dialogue process* oth countries stuc) to theirtraditional stands through the following years till @J11 happened and changed the regional andglobal geostrategic landscape*

As global terrorism became a ma+or concern, ndia +oined the bandwagon and tried to portray theindigenous freedom struggle as terrorism, allegedly aided by the safe ha#ens located in a)istan*The emerging international consensus against terrorism and policy shifts forced a)istan to re#iewits ndia-policy* t was for the first time in a)istan.s history since 1@79 that slamabad bac)trac)ed

from its historic stand on 5ashmir during incumbency of General er#e/ Musharaf*

nstead of echoing its usual mantra of the resolutions being the )ey to acceptable solution, itaccepted the ndian downgrading of the 5ashmir issue as bilateral one between ew Celhi andslamabad* The #arious formulae proposed by Musharraf reflected the country.s departure from itstraditional stand much to the ire of rightist political and religious parties* The rest is history*

All along the succeeding years, ndia pegged dialogue with a)istan with the latter.s progress ondismantling terrorist networ), it accused slamabad of harbouring* Dach time when both countries

pic)ed up the thread where it was bro)en either it was in Ianuary 2007 or 2010, the leaderships ofboth countries made tall claims of .opening a new chapter. in bilateral relations* ut each time, ashistory goes by, one minor incident has the potential of derailing the whole process with bothcountries going bac) to their earlier positions*The #arious formulae proposed by Musharraf reflected the country.s departure from its traditionalstand much to the ire of rightist political and religious parties*ndia.s a)istan policy shows that it has allowed itself to be dictated by past by refusing to

#isuali/e the di#idends that normali/ation and peace with a)istan would bring* t failed to discerna sea change in all elements of national opinion #is-Q-#is ndia* a)istan.s powerful military, whosestrategic orientation has historically been anti-ndia, fa#oured normali/ation of ties with ew Celhi*General Musharraf.s peace o#ertures reflected a strong desire within the establishment to thin) outof bo to impro#e ties with their eastern neighbour*

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(econdly, there is a rare consensus among all )ey political parties in a)istan to impro#e relationswith ndia* M:-, and T, which otherwise ha#e deep fissures on political plain, are on thesame page and the leaderships of these parties ha#e con#eyed their willingness to engage ndia in

producti#e and result-oriented dialogue* The religious parties that feed on anti-ndia rhetoric ha#enot been able to get the )ind of acceptance they would get in the past* There is a greater reali/ationamong the masses as well that impro#ed relations with ew Celhi are in a)istan.s interest as it willsa#e precious resources for usage on the uplift of society* t will also gi#e greater space to the armedforces to deal with the menace of terrorism, which has assumed dangerous proportions for thecountry.s stability and security*

n failing to render this consensus into a basis for impro#ed ties on sustainable basis, the ndianleadership has pro#en to be reacti#e, lac)ing depth of #ision and courage to put the region on atra+ectory of socioeconomic de#elopment* A lot depends on the approach of new go#ernments,which would be #oted into power in a)istan in 2013 and in ndia in 2017 following parliamentaryelections, as how they ta)e up the bilateral agenda* Armed with fresh mandate, they would ha#e the

political support to begin afresh* ;hat they need to understand is that continued and meaningfulengagement is no more a luury but a strategic need* ut only time will tell whether they learnlessons from history or insist on repeating pre#ious mista)es*

The writer is a ci#il ser#ant and can be reached at amanatchp)gmail*com

Amanat Ali !haudhry

/hy %amas (srael rip (s ne ig !istae

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*etanyahu insulted the president, %aced )omney, and hasnt mo'ed the peace

process. *ow, /hite 5ouse should not reward %eha'ior lie that, not e'en from

an ally.



ran is accelerating its nuclear program, (yria.s gruesome ci#il war is beginning to bleed across itsborders, Two years after $osni Mubara).s ouster, Dgypt.s political transition is, at best, dicey andyet according to deputy national security ad#iser en

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lea#ing the Nad Oashem $olocaust museum, news that srael.s nterior Ministry had authori/ed1,E00 housing units in Dast Ierusalem destroyed what should ha#e been a pure celebration ofAmerican-sraeli ties* iden returned to his hotel to consult with the ;hite $ouse on what to say,lea#ing etanyahu waiting aw)wardly at his residence for an hour and a half for dinner* ;heniden arri#ed, he issued an unprecedented rebu)e that embarrassed the sraeli prime minister, asthey sat down to eat*

American-sraeli ties remained sour* Two months after iden.s #isit, "bama refused to hold a photoop with etanyahu when he #isited the ;hite $ouse* The net year, when the president agreed toshare the stage with srael.s prime minister, etanyahu lectured him before the cameras in the "#al"ffice on why "bama.s %hardly original& idea that the 1@E9 borders could be a baseline for peacenegotiations with the alestinians was bun)* n 2012, etanyahufrustrated that he couldn.t goad"bama into saying when the *(* would bomb ranpublicly suggested the president had no4moral right6 to stop srael from ta)ing action itself* All the while, etanyahu, o#er the past fewyears, did nothing to further peace with the alestinians* $e floated #ia surrogates that he thought"bama was naS#e on the Middle Dast* And he left the strong impression last year that he wasrooting for Mitt

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terms of trying to mo#e it forward,..

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5istory of "lections in Paistan

Paistan is inching closer to the new elections and people of Paistan will soonelect their representati'es for the ne

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The Assemblies of the orth ;est 'rontier ro#ince and alochistan were dominated by the moreconser#ati#e ational Awami arty %;ali& and the M: %Bayyum&*

"+"#(*& @ 1BAE

Dlections of the ational and ro#incial Assemblies were scheduled to be held in 'ebruary 1@8 onnon-party basis* To contest the elections, a precondition was that a candidate must be supported by

at least 0 people to be eligible*

P++(*G $*D )"&4+&

The elections were held on 'ebruary 2 and 28, 1@8 for national and pro#incial assembliesrespecti#ely* More than 800 important political personalities were arrested in a pre-electioncrac)down? election campaigns were not allowed and a ban was imposed on political parties,

processions, rallies and e#en loudspea)ers*

D(&P&((* @ 5" 54&"

The ational Assembly continued to be dominated by the rural landlords* The only change was thatthe younger generation of landlords had ta)en o#er from their elders* The social bac)ground of the

new members of parliament can be +udged from the following figuresearly 9 per cent of the 879 members of these bodies were big landlords*

"+"#(*& @ 1BAA

"n August 19, 1@88, General Fia along with 31 other notables died in a !-130 plane crash nearahawalpur* nder the constitution, the !hairman (enate, Ghulam sha= 5han became the acting

president* "n "ctober 2, 1@88, the (upreme !ourt of a)istan ruled that political parties would beallowed to participate in the upcoming elections*

#*"&(*G P$)("&

The elections pro#ed, mainly, a two-party race between a)istan eople.s arty and a coalition ofright-leaning parties called the slami Iamhoori ttehad %I&* a)istan eople.s arty %&, led byMs* ena/ir hutto and the conser#ati#e slamic Cemocratic Alliance %I&, headed by Mr awa/(harif, as well as a multitude of other groups, fielded some 1,390 candidates for the Assembly.s 219

popularly-chosen seats*

P++&

Dlections for the ational Assembly were held on 1E o#ember, 1@88* emerged as the singlelargest party by recei#ing 38*2W #otes* t captured @3 of the 209 directly-contested seats in

parliament, which has 239 members* I was able to grab 30*1EW of the #otes, but only seats*

After the women.s seats were apportioned, the a)istan eople.s arty controlled 10 of the 239seats* The formed a coalition-go#ernment with the MBM* "n Cecember 2, 1@88 ena/irhutto was sworn in as the prime minister of a)istan*The pro#incial elections, held on o#ember 1@, initially resulted in go#ernments in three out offour pro#inces* $owe#er, in un+ab, I leader awa/ (harif became !hief Minister*

"+"#(*& @ 1BB0

"n August E, 1@@0, resident Ghulam sha= 5han dismissed ena/ir go#ernment and announcednew elections on 27 "ctober, 1@@0* $e chose the leader of the opposition in the former ationalAssembly, Ghulam Mustafa Iatoi, as the new careta)er rime Minister of a)istan*

#*"*D") P$)("&1* a)istan Cemocratic Alliance, established by together with Asghar 5han.s Tehri)-i-sti=lal,and two smaller parties*

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2* I, the coalition that had also competed with the in the 1@88 elections*3* Altaf $ussain.s MBM, 5han Abdul ;ali 5han.s Awami ational arty, Iamiat-ul-lama-e-slamand the Iamhoori ;atan arty*The results showed that I secured a booming #ictory, winning 10E of the 219 general seats* TheCA could win only forty-fi#e seats* !andidates of small ethnic parties and independents capturedthe remainder*

Mian Mohammad awa/ (harif was elected rime Minister by the ational Assembly ono#ember 1, 1@@0*resident Ghulam sha= 5han dissol#ed the assemblies on 18th April 1@@3 on corruption and otherserious charges* General Dlections were scheduled to be held on Iuly 17, 1@@3*

The resident appointed ala)h (her Ma/ari as the interim rime Minister* "n May 2E, 1@@3, the(upreme !ourt re#o)ed the residential "rder and reinstated awa/ (harif as the rime Minister*$owe#er, both the prime minister and the resident resigned on 18 Iuly 1@@3* Moeen Bureshi, a top;orld an) official, became the net careta)er M*

"+"#(*& @ 1BB3Dlections for ational Assembly and ro#incial assemblies were scheduled for "ctober E and @respecti#ely*

#*"&(*G P$)("&

1,78 candidates, in all, contested polls for the ational Assembly* one of the main parties gaineda controlling ma+ority? obtaining 8E seats to M:.s 92*

The first session was held on 1th "ctober 1@@3* (yed Nousuf

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(pea)er, Ceputy (pea)er ational and ro#incial Assemblies and dismissed the 'ederal andro#incial go#ernments*

"+"#(*& @ 2002

"n 12 May 2000, the (upreme !ourt of a)istan ordered er#e/ Musharraf to hold generalelections by 12 "ctober 2002* "n 11 Iuly 2002, the resident and !hief Decuti#e of a)istan,

General er#e/ Musharraf, announced that general elections for the ational Assembly and fourro#incial Assemblies would be held on 10 "ctober 2002*

The ational and ro#incial elections were held on the same day* More than 92 million registered#oters aged 18 and abo#e from a population of 170 million, elected members for the 372 ationalAssembly seats and 928 seats of the four ro#incial Assemblies* A total of 2,0@8 candidatescontested for 292 general seats of the ational Assembly* The remaining E0 seats were reser#ed forwomen and 10 for non-Muslims*

a)istan Muslim :eague-Buaid-i-A/am %M:-B&, a faction of the former a)istan Muslim :eague%M:& obtained the largest share of seats, 99, but fell short of ma+ority* The a)istan eople.s arty

arliamentarians %-& came second with E3 seats* Muttahida Ma+lis-i-Amal %MMA&, an allianceof si slamist parties, won 7 seats*

"n o#ember 1@, 2002, !haudhry Amir $ussain was elected the new (pea)er of the ationalAssembly while on o#ember 21, 2002, Mir Fafarullah Iamali was elected as the 21st rimeMinister of a)istan by securing 192 #otes out of 32@ #otes* $owe#er, he resigned on 2E Iune 2007and !haudhry (hu+aat $ussain replaced him as the interim rime Minister who was later replaced

by (hau)at A/i/*

"lections 200A

"n 8 o#ember 2009, Musharraf announced that the election would be held by 1 'ebruary 2008*:ater the election date was changed to occur on or before @ Ianuary 2008* D#en later, he suggested8 Ianuary 2008 as the election date* "n 1 o#ember, 2009, Mohammad Mian (oomro wasappointed as careta)er prime minister at the epiry of the term of the pre#ious go#ernment*

The year 2009 saw numerous political crises culminating in the Cecember 29 assassination offormer rime Minister ena/ir hutto*

'i#e main parties who contested these elections were%1& a)istan eople.s arty%2& a)istan Muslim :eague- B

%3& a)istan Muslim :eague awa/%7& Awami ational arty%& Mutahidda Baumi Mo#ement

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"+"#(*& @ 2013

ow, a)istanis ha#e another opportunity to send their elected representati#es to the parliamentthrough their #otes* This time apart from M: %&, , MBM and M: %B&, mran 5han.sa)istan Tehree)-e-nsaf is among the ma+or parties that are going to contest the polls* mran 5hanis focusing the youth and is epected to ma)e a ma+or upset in the results*Adeel ia/

&indh

he +and of "ndless pportunities



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The gateway of slam in the ndo-a) (ubcontinent, (indh is the second largest pro#ince of

a)istan* t is home to the ndus Oalley !i#ili/ation that is one of the earliest urban ci#ili/ations inthe world*

Geography

"ast (ndian states of Guarat and )aasthan

/est (ndus )i'er and alochistan

*orth Puna%

&outh $ra%ian &ea

(indh forms the lower ndus basin and lies between 23 to 3 degree and 28-30, north latitude andEE-72 and 91-1 degree east longitude* t is about 9@ )ms in length from north to south and nearly772 )ms in its etreme breadth %281 )ms a#erage&* t co#ers 170,@17 s=uare )ms and is about aslarge as Dngland*

The biggest international airport of a)istan is situated in 5arachi and is )nown as Baid-e-A/amnternational Airport*

Districts

There are 29 districts in (indh* 5arachi consists of districts* A list of these districts with theirrespecti#e areas is as follows

Total area of 5arachi is 178 s=* 5m*Cistrict Thar co#ering a total area of 1@E39 s=* )m* is the largest district in (indh*

Did ou now;

(indh has two gigantic seaports and both are located in 5arachi

*atural )esources

(indh is the richest pro#ince in natural resources of gas, petrol and coal* $ere is a brief account of(indh>s natural resources*

#oal

@@W coal reser#es of a)istan are in (indh* These are located in :a)hra, (oondha, Thar, Meeting-Ihampeer and adin* Among these, Thar coal reser#es are the largest in the world* Thar region isendowed with mammoth coal %lignite& reser#es estimated to be 19 billion tonnes which can

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produce 100,000M; of electricity for net 300 years and can be a )ey to energy security andeconomic prosperity* Ma+or coalfields in (indh are

har #oalfield

Total Area @,100 s=* 5m!oal

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n 1@91, after a lapse of about 27 years, it was again declared as the (indh Assembly building* (incethen it has been used as such*

(mportant

5han ahadur Muhammed Ayub 5horo is the only person in the history of (indh since 1@79 who

has ser#ed thrice as the !hief Minister of the pro#ince*Mr* Mahmood A* $aroon has been the Go#ernor of (indh for two terms*

Did ou now;

The 30th Go#ernor of (indh, Cr shrat l Dbad 5han, too) up the post on Cecember 29, 2002,becoming the youngest go#ernor to hold the office* $e now holds also the record of longest-ser#ingGo#ernor of any pro#ince of a)istan since its inception in 1@79*

#ulture

The culture of (indh has its roots in the ndus Oalley !i#ili/ation*X Poets(hah Abdul :atif hittai and (achal (armast are the two most re#ered sufi poets of (indh* (omefamous regional poets are (hai)h Aya/, staad hu)hari, Ahmed 5han Madhoosh, Adal (oomro,Aya/ Gul, Abdul Ghaffar Tabasum, G**Bureshi,

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(hau)at A/i/, Muhammad Mian (oomro and

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(slands in &indh

!hurna The second-largest island of a)istanManora A tiny peninsula located south of the port of 5arachi "thersaba hit sland, uddo sland, undal sland, 5hiprianwala sland, (hams ir and !lifton "yster

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ndus, the largest ri#er of a)istan, originates from Tibetan lateau and after co#ering the totaldistance of 3180 )ilometres, it falls into the Arabian (ea near Thatta in (indh*

lind

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$e attended the Caniel ".:eary $igh (chool in arinas city* At age se#enteen, !hY#e/ studied atthe Oene/uelan Academy of Military (ciences in !aracas* At the Academy, he was a member of thefirst class that was following a restructured curriculum )nown as the Andr[s ello lan* $e latersaid, 4 found my true #ocation there*6

:i#ing in !aracas, he saw more of the endemic po#erty faced by wor)ing class Oene/uelans,something that echoed the po#erty he had eperienced growing up, and he maintained that thiseperience only made him further committed to achie#ing social +ustice*

n the Academy, he found time to study the li#es of the 1@th !entury (outh American re#olutionaryleader (imon oli#ar and !he Gue#ara* n 1@97, he was selected to be a representati#e in thecommemorations for the 10th anni#ersary of the attle of Ayacucho in eru, the conflict in which(imon olZ#ar.s lieutenant, Antonio Ios[ de (ucre, defeated royalist forces during the eru#ian ;arof ndependence*

$e graduated in 1@9 and had already begun to form political ideas that he would later put into

practice as president, including the belief that the military had a duty to step in if a ci#iliango#ernment was deemed to ha#e failed to protect the poorest in society*

n 1@99, he founded a re#olutionary mo#ement within the armed forces, in the hope that he couldone day introduce a leftist go#ernment to Oene/uela the Oene/uelan eople.s :iberation Army%D+[rcito de :iberaci\n del ueblo de Oene/uela, or D:O&, was a secreti#e cell within the militarythat consisted of him and a handful of his fellow soldiers*

n 1@8@, !arlos Andr[s [re/ was elected resident after promising to oppose the nited (tatesgo#ernment.s 4;ashington !onsensus6 and financial policies recommended by the nternationalMonetary 'und %M'&* e#ertheless, he did neither once he got into office* Cisturbed by his

policies, !hY#e/ began preparing for a coup d.[tat, )nown as "peration Famora* nitially plannedfor Cecember, !hY#e/ delayed the M

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!hY#e/ surrendered*

$e was languishing in a military +ail when his associates tried again to sei/e power nine monthslater* The second coup attempt in o#ember 1@@2 was crushed as well*

!hY#e/ spent two years in prison before relaunching his party as the Mo#ement of the 'ifth

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!hY#e/ was re-elected with @*9EW of the #ote*

n the presidential election of Cecember 200E !hY#e/ was once again elected* "n 9 "ctober 2012,!hY#e/ won election as president for a fourth time, and for the third time he won a si-year term*

The inauguration of !hY#e/.s new term was scheduled for 10 Ianuary 2013, but he was undergoing

medical treatment at the time in !uba from where he left for the eternal abode*

"n his death, a prestigious ritish newspaper 4The Guardian6 wrote

!hY#e/ was a democratically elected champion of the poor* $is policies lifted millions out of ab+ectpo#erty and misery* $e represented a brea) from years of corrupt regimes with often dire humanrights records* $is achie#ements were won in the face of an attempted military coup, anaggressi#ely hostile media, and bitter foreign critics* $e demonstrated that it is possible to resist theneo-liberal dogma that holds sway o#er much of humanity* $e will be mourned by millions ofOene/uelans R and understandably so*Muhammad sman utt

/ill #apitalism Destroy #i'iliHation;

$n economic system %ased on a free maret, open competition, profit moti'eand pri'ate ownership is called capitalism.



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There is 4capitalism6 and then there is 4really eisting capitalism*6

The term 4capitalism6 is commonly used to refer to the *(* economic system, with substantial stateinter#ention ranging from subsidies for creati#e inno#ation to the 4too-big-to-fail6 go#ernmentinsurance policy for ban)s*

The system is highly monopoli/ed, further limiting reliance on the mar)et, and increasingly so nthe past 20 years the share of profits of the 200 largest enterprises has risen sharply, reports scholar

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118 countries ha#e set targets for renewable energy6As Ion A* 5rosnic) and o Macnnis report in Caedalus 4$uge ma+orities ha#e fa#ored steps bythe federal go#ernment to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions generated when utilities

produce electricity* n 200E, 8E percent of respondents fa#ored re=uiring utilities, or encouragingthem with ta brea)s, to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases they emit* Also in that year, 89

percent fa#ored ta brea)s for utilities that produce more electricity from water, wind or sunlight*

These ma+orities were maintained between 200E and 2010 and shran) somewhat after that*

The fact that the public is influenced by science is deeply troubling to those who dominate theeconomy and state policy*

"ne current illustration of their concern is the 4Dn#ironmental :iteracy mpro#ement Act6 proposedto state legislatures by A:D!, the American :egislati#e Dchange !ouncil, a corporate-fundedlobby that designs legislation to ser#e the needs of the corporate sector and etreme wealth*

The A:D! Act mandates 4balanced teaching6 of climate science in 5-12 classrooms* 4alancedteaching6 is a code phrase that refers to teaching climate-change denial, to 4balance6 mainstreamclimate science* t is analogous to the 4balanced teaching6 ad#ocated by creationists to enable theteaching of 4creation science6 in public schools* :egislation based on A:D! models has already

been introduced in se#eral states*

"f course, all of this is dressed up in rhetoric about teaching critical thin)ing R a fine idea, nodoubt, but it.s easy to thin) up far better eamples than an issue that threatens our sur#i#al and has

been selected because of its importance in terms of corporate profits*

Media reports commonly present a contro#ersy between two sides on climate change*

"ne side consists of the o#erwhelming ma+ority of scientists, the world.s ma+or national academiesof science, the professional science +ournals and the ntergo#ernmental anel on !limate !hange*

They agree that global warming is ta)ing place, that there is a substantial human component, thatthe situation is serious and perhaps dire, and that #ery soon, maybe within decades, the world mightreach a tipping point where the process will escalate sharply and will be irre#ersible, with se#eresocial and economic effects* t is rare to find such consensus on comple scientific issues*

The other side consists of s)eptics, including a few respected scientists who caution that much isun)nown R which means that things might not be as bad as thought, or they might be worse*

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"mitted from the contri#ed debate is a much larger group of s)eptics highly regarded climatescientists who see the !!.s regular reports as much too conser#ati#e* And these scientists ha#erepeatedly been pro#en correct, unfortunately*

The propaganda campaign has apparently had some effect on *(* public opinion, which is mores)eptical than the global norm* ut the effect is not significant enough to satisfy the masters* That is

presumably why sectors of the corporate world are launching their attac) on the educational system,in an effort to counter the public.s dangerous tendency to pay attention to the conclusions ofscientific research*4'or the first time in human history, humans are facing the significant prospect of se#ere calamityas a result of their actions R actions that are battering our prospects of decent sur#i#al*6At the

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The countries with large and influential indigenous populations are well in the lead in see)ing to

preser#e the planet* The countries that ha#e dri#en indigenous populations to etinction or etrememarginali/ation are racing toward destruction*

Thus Dcuador, with its large indigenous population, is see)ing aid from the rich countries to allow itto )eep its substantial oil reser#es underground, where they should be*

Meanwhile the *(* and !anada are see)ing to burn fossil fuels, including the etremely dangerous!anadian tar sands, and to do so as =uic)ly and fully as possible, while they hail the wonders of acentury of %largely meaningless& energy independence without a side glance at what the worldmight loo) li)e after this etra#agant commitment to self-destruction*

This obser#ation generali/es Throughout the world, indigenous societies are struggling to protectwhat they sometimes call 4the rights of nature,6 while the ci#ili/ed and sophisticated scoff at thissilliness* is all eactly the opposite of what rationality would predict R unless it is the s)ewed formof reason that passes through the filter of

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")))(&! $*D )$*&*$(*$+ )G$*(M"D #)(!"")))(&!

()$* $*D +"$*"&" 5(M$++$5

The failed 2011 plot against the (audi Ambassador in ;ashington shows that ran may be morewilling to sei/e opportunities to attac) in the nited (tates in response to percei#ed offenses againstthe regime* ran is also an emerging and increasingly aggressi#e cyber actor* $owe#er, we ha#e notchanged our assessment that ran prefers to a#oid direct confrontation with the nited (tates

because regime preser#ation is its top priority*

/!D P)+(@")$(*

()$* $*D *)5 )"$ D"8"+P(*G /!D-$PP+(#$+" #$P$(+(("&;e assess ran is de#eloping nuclear capabilities to enhance its security, prestige, and regionalinfluence and gi#e it the ability to de#elop nuclear weapons, should a decision be made to do so* ;edo not )now if ran will e#entually decide to build nuclear weapons*

Tehran has de#eloped technical epertise in a number of areasincluding uranium enrichment,nuclear reactors, and ballistic missiles from which it could draw if it decided to build missile-deli#erable nuclear weapons* These technical ad#ancements strengthen our assessment that ran hasthe scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to e#entually produce nuclear weapons* This ma)esthe central issue its political will to do so*

"f particular note, ran has made progress during the past year that better positions it to produceweapons-grade uranium %;G& using its declared facilities and uranium stoc)piles, should itchoose to do so* Cespite this progress, we assess ran could not di#ert safeguarded material and

produce a weapon-worth of ;G before this acti#ity is disco#ered*

;e +udge ran.s nuclear decision-ma)ing is guided by a cost-benefit approach, which offers theinternational community opportunities to influence Tehran* ranian leaders undoubtedly considerran.s security, prestige and influence, as well as the international political and securityen#ironment, when ma)ing decisions about its nuclear program* n this contet, we +udge that ranis trying to balance conflicting ob+ecti#es* t wants to ad#ance its nuclear and missile capabilitiesand a#oid se#ere repercussionssuch as a military stri)e or regime threatening sanctions*

;e +udge ran would li)ely choose a ballistic missile as its preferred method of deli#ering a nuclearweapon, if one is e#er fielded* ran.s ballistic missiles are capable of deli#ering ;MC* n addition,

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ran has demonstrated an ability to launch small satellites, and we grow increasingly concerned thatthese technical stepsalong with a regime hostile toward the nited (tates and our alliespro#ideTehran with the means and moti#ation to de#elop larger space-launch #ehicles and longer-rangemissiles, including an intercontinental ballistic missile %!M&*

ran already has the largest in#entory of ballistic missiles in the Middle Dast, and it is epanding the

scale, reach, and sophistication of its ballistic missile arsenal* ran.s growing ballistic missilein#entory and its domestic production of anti-ship cruise missiles %A(!M& and de#elopment of itsfirst long-range land attac) cruise missile pro#ide capabilities to enhance its power pro+ection*Tehran #iews its con#entionally armed missiles as an integral part of its strategy to deterand ifnecessary retaliate againstforces in the region, including ( forces*

)"G(*$+ 5)"$&

()$*

ran is growing more autocratic at home and more asserti#e abroad as it faces elite and populargrie#ances, a deteriorating economy, and an uncertain regional dynamic* (upreme :eader5hamenei.s power and authority are now #irtually unchec)ed, and security institutions, particularly

the slamic

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reminiscent of the hardships that ran suffered immediately after the ranian

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/hat is &e6uester;

(e=uester is a procedure in nited (tates law that limits the si/e of the federal budget* t in#ol#essetting a hard cap on the amount of go#ernment spending within broadly-defined categories? if!ongress enacts annual appropriations legislation that eceeds these caps, an across-the-boardspending cut is automatically imposed on these categories, affecting all departments and programs

by an e=ual percentage* This part of the fiscal cliff became effecti#e on Ianuary 1, 2013, but theAmerican Tapayer

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bric)s and nails*

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The most damaging effects may come from cutting bac) on federal ser#ices* The Aerospacendustries Association, a trade group, rec)ons the 'ederal A#iation Administration.s plan to furloughmost of its 79,000 employees by one day per pay period could cut air traffic by W to 10W* Thiswould reduce the fees paid to the 'AA by airlines, negating most of the beneficial impact on thedeficit* !argo flights, often made at night, could be hurt the worst*

The ational !attlemen.s eef Association claims the furloughing of meat, poultry and egg safetyinspectors will affect E,300 establishments and cause H10 billion in lost production* :i)ewise, thefurlough of customs officers could result in huge delays at border crossings, crippling the supplychains that are crucial to the automobile industry, says one trade group*

(uch predictions must be ta)en with a grain of salt since it is in each industry.s interest to sound thealarm* ut the underlying point is correct* f you wanted to cut the deficit in the most damagingway, you.d choose these=uester*I;T Ces)

!edia Power )esponsi%ility

(n an unlettered society where one rarely comes across people genuinely into

writing or reading and where %oos are sold not %y content %ut %y weight as awaste paper commodity and where %oostores are disappearing fast, getting

con'erted into 'ideo shops or %urger stands, the arri'al of e'ery single new %oo

%y a Paistani author is freshening e

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only the media laws, if there are any, but also all other laws are of no practical conse=uence* Theauthor, a prolific writer in social media, a well-)nown lawyer and prominent academic in masscommunication, has #ery ably used her practitioner.s eperience in opening an insightful windowinto an otherwise untra#ersed area in our written literature*

This boo) is, perhaps, the first study of its own )ind encompassing all media-related issues in our

country and generating awareness of the #ast legal framewor) a#ailable to the people as well as themedia community on the rights and obligations of all in handling this important #ehicle of publicopinion and information* The author not only traces the historical e#olution of this institution ina)istan, but also brings out, with specific instances, the growing tendency for abuse of media-related freedoms*

esides putting the media.s role in its perspecti#e as the .fourth pillar. of a democratic state, she hastried to clarify in common man.s language the much misunderstood concepts of freedom of speech,freedom of epression, defamation, contempt of court, cyber law, electronic media and socialresponsibility with comparati#e analyses of the laws on these issues in our own country and those inother countries*

ow, as in any other country in today.s world, our media is playing a pi#otal role as a source ofinformation on almost e#ery aspect of our national life as also on issues and de#elopments ofnational, regional and global importance across the globe in the contet of their rele#ance toa)istan* n many respects, information has ne#er been so free presenting new challenges to thesociety as a whole and helping people disco#er new facts and hidden realities, while ma)inggo#ernments more accountable*

All societies now recognise that free epression has its limits* The foremost challenge thus remainshow the free media itself is using its newfound freedom in meeting its own obligations towardsrespecting the freedom of the public as indi#iduals or e#en as groups or society as a whole* This

boo) ma)es the case for the media.s responsibility in remaining within the limits of legal, moral,cultural and ethical norms of the society and also the need for promoting di#ersity, transparency,accessibility and accountability among fast-growing media corporations and the go#ernmentagencies that regulate the media*

;ith more and more corporate conglomerates buying up independent news outlets, broadcasters arebecoming less and less accountable to the public and as a conse=uence, fewer #oices andperspecti#es are to be heard* An increasingly concentrated media ownership system in our owncountry has had a negati#e impact on the =uality of news and information that we recei#e about thenation and the world* There are instances, globally as well as in our own country, of growing abuse

of media power to influence the political and cultural scenes*

Those of us who remember the classic fairytale mo#ie, 4The ;i/ard of "/6, might see in it someallegorical resemblances with the world of media in our times today* ts main character, CorothyGale, is a young, helpless, good-natured adopted orphan girl snatched up by a 5ansas tornado anddeposited in a fantasy land of witches* ;hen she and her companions finally reach the palace of the;i/ard, and in the main hall, a huge head faces them tal)ing and breathing fire and smo)e, andholding the terrorised but rapt attention of anyone who loo)s upon his face*An increasingly concentrated media ownership system in our own country has had a negati#eimpact on the =uality of news and information that we recei#e about the nation and the world*That is until a curtain is mo#ed and we find that the ;i/ard is actually a little wimpy old man, who

+ust wor)s le#ers and pushes buttons to ma)e the huge head tal) and mo#e* 4ay no attention to theman behind the curtain,6 the ;i/ard yells into a microphone, hoping the huge tal)ing head willma)e Corothy, the Tin Man, the !owardly :ion and the (carecrow ignore the facts and concentrate

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on the illusion*

As in the 4;i/ard of "/6, the people in our world today are transfied on our own tal)ing headsthat come from our own ;i/ard boes e#ery day and night in regular news bulletins, includingfre=uent brea)ing news e#ery now and then* And the news media, especially the electronic mediaunderstands completely how much power they ha#e o#er the minds of the masses, e#en those who

say 4they can.t trust the media*6 y using graphic images, focusing on e#erything they want you tosee and hear, shaping e#ents by reporting only on those that they choose, they control an empire thatis actually a fourth pillar of the state* And, no wonder, they control our minds*

The media eercises influence and authority o#er us* And there is no doubt that money and musclepower are getting control o#er the media, which is becoming a commercial enterprise rather thanbeing dri#en by public good, and if recent de#elopments in the country are an eye opener, our mediais no longer immune to corruption* Oested foreign as well as local interests are also pouring inmoney with ulterior moti#es* They say, lawlessness is the son of anarchy and brother of #iolenceand corruption and this 4bro)en6 family li#es happily in a)istan* These renegade companionsflourish only in societies where common purposes and collecti#e good lose out to #ested interests*

Though we ha#e a #oluntary code of ethics adopted since 1@92, the performance of media in ourcountry has yet to rise to the globally recognised standards of reporting with responsibility* (ince2002, we also ha#e a statutory body, the ress !ouncil of a)istan, to ensure freedom of press in thecountry consistent with uni#ersally acclaimed professional and ethical standards relating tonewspapers, news agencies, editors and +ournalists* There are reports that instead of see)ing toreinforce the laws and ethical codes on such issues as morality, cultural propriety, plagiarism,fairness, etc, the !ouncil, under pressure from newspapers, is see)ing the repeal of defamationlaws* That sounds odd for any democratic society where the press has to be both free andresponsible*y using graphic images, focusing on e#erything they want you to see and hear, shaping e#ents byreporting only on those that they choose, they control an empire that is actually a fourth pillar of thestate*:ately, there ha#e been attempts at distorting our history and e#en =uestioning the #ery raison

d.]tre of a)istan under the nose of those who ha#e #owed to protect and preser#e a)istan.s.ideology. in total breach of Article 1@ of the !onstitution and #iolation of items 7 and @ of the!.s !ode of Dthics* t is time our media owned its national responsibility by shielding the glory

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of slam and our country.s independence and national integrity* A recent case in point was theprominent op-ed space gi#en by a ma+or newspaper claiming .guardianship. of our ideology to anndian ma#eric).s #iewpoint =uestioning the #ery raison d.]tre of a)istan*

o doubt, the reach of the media and its impact on general public is increasing and in a countrywhere there is no rule of law, too much of freedom also has its own ha/ards* Too much of

commercialism that is going beyond the prescribed codifying limits is unhealthy and must be reinedin* Nasmeen Ali.s boo) is a timely re+oinder on all these issues so that media.s freedom is an asset,rather than a liability for our society* To be so, it must remain within an obligatory framewor) oflegal, social, moral, cultural and ethical standards in )eeping with a)istan.s #alue system*

The writer is a former foreign secretary(hamshad AhmadThe writer is a former foreign secretary*

5" $*(-")))(&! N$!"*D!"*O

$#, 2013:

*ationaliHing the (nternational +aw on #ounter errorism @inancing he

de%ate that the recent wa'e of terrorism is a %yproduct of international politics

is not new in Paistan= though many tend to disagree with this point of 'iew.


http://jworldtimes.com/Author/Details/2http://jworldtimes.com/Author/Details/2http://jworldtimes.com/Magazine/Display/65http://jworldtimes.com/Author/Details/2http://jworldtimes.com/Author/Details/2http://jworldtimes.com/Magazine/Display/65

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f the legislation of a country is any measure, the recent Anti-Terrorism %Amendment& Act, 2013%ATA& and Anti-Terrorism %second amendment& ill 2013, passed by the (enate on th and 17thMarch 2013 respecti#ely, testify that the legislation is an outcome of succumbing to international

pressure, and not of indigenous and domestic circumstances* The .internationali/ed. aspect of thenew amendments to Anti-terrorism :aw shows that legislature and eecuti#e in a)istan are moreresponsi#e to international pressure than to local needs and national aspirations*

A report issued by a)istan nstitute of :egislati#e Ce#elopment and Transparency %:CAT&, onthis issue, suggests that the .'inancial Action Tas) 'orce. %'AT'&, an intergo#ernmental organi/ationestablished in 1@8@ and tas)ed, inter alia, to de#elop international standards in form of itsrecommendations to safeguard international financial system, repeatedly urged a)istan to amend

its anti-terrorism laws to tighten the asset sei/ure and counterterrorism regimes* !onse=uently, adraft of twenty-fi#e amendments to ATA was proposed by nterior Minister

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The ATA %Amendment& Act 2013 amends both (ections 2 and E* t amends (ection 2 to redefine theconcepts of .money. and .property. with the effect of widening the connotations and resulting ininternational applicability of the ATA* t also amends (ection E to include application of all theoffences defined in eight international con#entions %outlined in 'ifth (chedule to ATA 1@@9 readwith its (ection 37& relating to nlawful (ei/ure of Aircraft, nternational ersons, CiplomaticAgents, Ta)ing of $ostages, Oiolence at Airports, (afety of Maritime a#igation, (afety of 'inedlatforms on !ontinental (helf and Terrorist ombings* The importation and nationali/ation ofinternational law into ATA is the characteristic of this set of amendments* An important point worthnoting is that the newly-added 'ifth (chedule has a clause which enables the 'ederal Go#ernmentto specify through .notification. any other con#ention or international treaty to be included forapplication in a)istan through ATA law* The delegation of power for incorporating theinternational law to the eecuti#e must be minutely eamined as the domain is predominantly

reser#ed for the legislature*

$. #ounter errorism @inancing $mendments:

!ounter Terrorism 'inancing %!T'&

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!harles $* 5ennedy, in his article, .The !reation and Ce#elopment of a)istan.s Anti-Terrorism

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nter#iewsreparing nter#iew Buestions!ompetiti#e Dams %!((, M(, !(& nter#iewssychological DaminationThe anel nter#iew(tudy Material for nter#iewCos and Con.ts for an nter#iewTips by ToppersMoc) nter#iews

!((, M( and !( are the most prestigious competiti#e eams in a)istan* D#ery year, thousands

of candidates appear in them to ma)e their dream of a brighter and en#iable future come true* ut,only a few pass the eams and most of them remain unable to get through due to lac) of sufficientand proper guidance* The paucity of =uality boo)s is another )ey factor in this regard*

ut, 4sychological Assessment and nter#iew Guide6 penned by Cr ;aheed Asghar, an officer inA( group, is the best boo) that addresses this problem and pro#ides in#aluable material which isimperati#e for success in psychological assessment and inter#iew* ha#e combed through the boo)and found it etremely helpful as it presents the most rele#ant material in a no#el way* The authorhas pro#ided effecti#e techni=ues along with illustrations so that the readers may comprehend therudiments*

esides guidance on how to prepare, the boo) also features moc) inter#iews and tips by toppers*Another stri)ing feature is the presence of material comprising =uestions that are fre=uently as)ed*t e=uips the readers with great confidence when they actually appear before the inter#iew

panellists*

Adeel ia/Dditor Iahangir.s ;orld times'ormer ro+ect $ead nstitute of ublic Administration P olicy (tudies(uperior ni#ersity, :ahore*Adeel ia/

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#an P( /in the "lections - 2013

(n Paistans political history, Paistan ehree-e-(nsaf NP(O is the onlypolitical party that has gone through dramatic ups and downs in terms of

popularity.



(ome recent polls suggest that its popularity is at all-time low since the massi#e political gatheringof 30th "ctober* After mran 5han.s phenomenal success in attracting the masses, a 4tsunami6 ofscathing criticism was directed at him and his party that T is gathering traditional politiciansaround him? #oting for T would mean right wing #ote di#ision which would ultimately help and Fardari in coming bac) to power, etc* ut, here the =uestion arises that whether this entire

bric)bat is logical and based on #alid arguments or it is +ust propaganda against himU Anotherpertinent =uestion is that is T really a symbol of 4change6 or it is only a political sloganeeringli)e of other partiesU

(ome analysts ha#e tal)ed a lot about the right-wing #ote di#ision* ;hile discussing this point, theyrely mainly on pre#ious elections. results that whene#er the traditional right wingcomprisingIamaat-e-slami , M:%& and some other partiesis di#ided, being the main beneficiary thischasm came to power* ut these analysts forget two fundamental things about T* 'irstly, T hasattracted not only the right-wing but also the left-wing #otes because it represents 4change6 for allthe a)istanis irrespecti#e of their being the right wingers or the leftists* 'or instance, Ma)hdoomIa#ed $ashmi who has been the bac)bone of M: %& and .s former diehard follower (hahMehmood Bureshi are on the same page in T* n addition, innumerable indi#iduals with rightistor leftist political affiliations are now the steel frame of the T at the grassroots le#el*

The second, and perhaps the most crucial, fact is that this time 70 W of the #oters are newly-

registered young men and women who ha#e ne#er #oted before and who aspire to bring 4change6 inthis filthy system of dynastic politics* Gi#en the popularity of T and mran 5han in the youth ofa)istan, it is epected that they will #ote for T* f it happens, it would be a 4huge success6 in the

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history of a)istan*

The second criticism is about the inclusion of same .old and traditional. faces in the party* t.s =uitetric)y, as some parties while raising the slogans of change and critici/ing others, forget their owndeeds* t is important to mention that there is a huge difference between a)istan.s rural and urbansocial fabric* The rural fabric, or we can say the constituency politics, is mostly caste-and-biradari-

based* $ere, the loyalties are towards biradari as in times of trouble, they will come to help* (o, inthese circumstances, 4personalities6 become far more important than the 4parties6* That.s why e#ery

political party in a)istan had to include these 4electables6 if it wants to come into power andwithout power, you cannot bring 4change6* D#en Buaid-e-A/am, whose #ision and purpose ofchange was abo#e and beyond any doubt, and whose will and steadfastness to his ideals ga#e us thiscountry, had to accept these electables coming from the nionist arty of un+ab into his folds*D#en ma+ority of the Muslim :eague belonged to the nionist arty of un+ab and had the Muslim:eague not got the Ma+ority in un+ab, a)istan would ha#e been a dream yet*

(ome also allege mran 5han of criticising awa/ (harif and his party only while sparing despite its ineptness in running the country which implies that is buc)ing up T* This is +ustridiculous* mran 5han repeatedly said in his public meetings that e#eryone )nows about theendemic corruption, plunder and loot of but M: %& has e=ual role in bringing a)istan at the

brin) of disaster and he thin)s befitting to tear their 4#eil of chastity6 apart* mran 5han hasconsistently maintained that people should not consider M: %& an option as there is no difference

between the two* oth are e=ually corrupt, though, the method is different*T has attracted not only the right-wing but also the left-wing #otes because it represents 4change6for all the a)istanisndoubtedly, the upcoming general election is the most important for our country as it woulddecide the future course of a)istan* (ome analysts predict them to be similar to the elections of1@7E and 1@90 which pro#ed milestones in the political destiny of the nation* At this +uncture of our

political history, when the whole country is smouldering and there is acute energy crisis, a saggingeconomy and continuing war on terror? change has become ine#itable for our country*

T followers say that it is the only party and mran 5han is the only leader who can bring realchange in a)istan* t is so because a)istan needs someone who neither can only handle all theseissues but introduce some institutional changes in our body politic and socioeconomic fabric along

with reshaping the state structure which will lead us to prosperity and de#elopment on a sustainablebasis* t is the need of the hour to build institutions and mran 5han has pro#ed his mastery in thiss)ill* A glowing eample of his abilities is in front of e#eryone in form of (hau)at 5hanum !ancer

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$ospital that is also reflecti#e of his lo#e and de#otion for the oppressed and downtroddena)istanis and, at the same time, his ability and #ision for change*

(econdly, the recent intra-party elections also show his determination towards changing theoutdated political system and turning the state enterprises into 4institutions6 where policies ratherthan 4personalities6 matter*

Thirdly, T is the only party which has announced 20 W tic)ets for Nouth which is indicati#e of itsseriousness towards including the 4infantry6 of change in the parliamentary process*

'ourthly, T is the most inno#ati#e party in the political domain of a)istan and it is the inno#ationwhich leads a nation towards progress*

All these features and merits are an omen that a)istan will ha#e a better go#ernment after the netelections if T wins*

n the end, it is necessary to ad#ise that do use your right to #ote and play your part in gi#ing thefuture direction to our dear homeland* This is the only way you can change the direction of thenation.s destiny* f you don.t #ote, you will ha#e no one to blame for if the net go#ernment doesnot sol#e your problems*

The writer is a social and political acti#ist and a businessman* $e can be reached atshei)h_tayyab_narulahotmail*com*Tayyab Tari=

Paistan 8otes 2013

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@or the 'ery first time in its history, Paistan is on the 'erge of transition as

PPPP-led go'ernment has completed its full E-year term and soon the elections

will %e held to choose their successors. eeping in 'iew the full-throttle

electioneering, parties luring manifestos and youths role in %ringing a%out the

much-trumpeted #5$*G", Lahangirs /orld imes is going to pu%lish the

e and they will #ote for any party who can assure them a realL!hange> in the system* ut, >m not foreseeing any re#olutionary or big change in the coming

elections*

;e do need change but that will come only through a surgical operation rooting out its systemicper#ersities and structural fault lines* To deal with our current malaise, papering the crac)s will notdo*

;ell, a lot of change has already occurred? we ha#e an independent +udiciary, a #ibrant media, anasserti#e D! and new electoral rolls made by AC

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come up to cast their #ote*

"nly two political parties R T and M: %& R too) ma+or steps to attract youth* ut cannot saydecisi#ely that there won>t be any role of youth but one thing is sure that now the era of ideological

politics is o#er*

Nouth, as a political factor, will be determined by how many young men and women actually comeout to #ote* f they go to the polling stations big numbers will come out and begin to #ote then thin) T is going to ha#e the first ad#antage*

o doubt, people want L!hange> and they will #ote for any party who can assure them a realL!hange> in the system* ut, >m not foreseeing any re#olutionary or big change in the comingelections*

;e do need change but that will come only through a surgical operation rooting out its systemicper#ersities and structural fault lines* To deal with our current malaise, papering the crac)s will notdo*

Nes, the youth would be a decisi#e factor this time because they ha#e a strong will to bring a realchange* They are trying to con#ince their families that they #ote to fulfil this fe#ered dream*

7. 3: (f the elections result in a hung parliament, how the ne

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resently, it seems that the elections will result in a hung parliament but we can>t rule out anythingout of the bo? it can happen*

7. : 5ow would the nationalists influence the results especially after oining hands with P!+

N*O;

n my opinion, they will influence the results but only if they successfully capitalise the anti-sentiments in alochistan and (indh* (o M: %& and nationalists need to wor) on that*

Nes, it will influence the results in few constituencies* 'or instance, Mumta/ hutto and s a setbac) to *

etter wait and see* ationalism itself is fast becoming a rare commodity* :i)e the rulers, thesub+ects too are becoming money-minded* Dlections will be decided by money pumped in the

process by hoo) and croo)*

Nes, to some etent it would* ut M: %& and nationalists> alliance should be seen in a broaderperspecti#e* These Ltraditionally anti-centre forces> are now +oining hands with a mainstream partyi*e* M: %&* (o, it>s going to be their #ictory too*

#an P( %e a surprise factor in these elections;

thin) people do trust and mran 5han and belie#e in his slogan of change* ut, the ground realitiesand constituency-based politics suggest otherwise* $e will not be in a position to bring about a realchange*

don>t thin) that T will be a Lsurprise pac)age>* ;e must understand that ideological politics isirrele#ant nowadays and people are more concerned about their urgent needs* (o, T would beunable to surprise in the electoral results*

;ell, a)istan is a country of surprises* ut the rules of political science suggest otherwise* Tmay muster #ote and get seats but this is not the election where any party is going to sweep*

don>t thin) so* n my opinion, T will not be able to gi#e any surprise* t would be wrong toassume that all the newly-registered #oters will #ote for go to T*

The people are loo)ing for a surprise* ut are they themsel#es going to gi#e surpriseU They mustcome out of their drawing rooms and ma)e the difference*

Nes, T can gi#e the surprise* Actually, T is focusing on becoming symbol of change* They aretrying for acti#e participation of the people in the election especially of youth* f it happens, we mayha#e a surprise*;a=as =bal

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"'olution or )e'olution= /hat Paistan

*eeds;+ong marches ha'e failed to unfold the untold and unseen in Paistan. hings

are same= poor go'ernance, illiteracy, health issues, inflated prices, deteriorated

law and order, human trafficing, rampant unemployment and acute energy

crisis are still haunting the nation.



Prologue

Documents

JWT april 2013