Just the Facts:Montana’s Adult Learners and Workforce

Needs

Barbara WagnerSenior EconomistMontana Department of Labor and IndustryResearch and Analysis Bureau

Presented at the Governor’s Forum on Adult Credentialing, Kalispell Montana, August 12, 2010

Today’s Topics

1. Drawing the Connection between Education and the Economy

2. Education as an Economic Development Tool

3. Education and Workforce Training – Helping Workers Adjust to a Changing Economy

Per Capita Income by State, 2008

CTMA WY VA CA CO WA HI NV ND NE KS SD WI

MEMO OK NC GA MT AZ

NM SC UTWV

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Montana: $34,622

Percent of Population with High School Diploma

CTMA WY VA CA CO WA HI NV ND NE KS SD WI

MEMO OK NC GA MT AZ

NM SC UTWV

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2009 and Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2008

Education and Income are Positively Correlated

CTMA WY VA CA CO WA HI NV ND NE KS SD WI

MEMO OK NC GA MT AZ

NM SC UTWV

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2009 and Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2008

Percent of Population with College or Advanced Degrees

CTMA WY VA CA CO WA HI NV ND NE KS SD WI

MEMO OK NC GA MT AZ

NM SC UTWV

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

College Degrees Advanced Degrees

Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2009

Wages for MT Jobs by Minimum Training Category

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000

$91,106

$63,797

$46,227

$39,252

$40,563

$25,829 Short or Medium Term On-the-Job Training

Long-Term OJT or Related Work Expe-rience

Associate’s or Vocational Training

Bachelor’s Degree

Bachelor’s with Work Experience or Master’s

Doctorate or Professional Degree

MT Poverty Rate by Educational Attainment

Less

than HS

HS Diploma

Some Colle

ge or A

ssocia

te's Degre

e

Bachelor's

Degree

Graduate

or Professi

onal Degre

e0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2009. Population over 25 for whom status has been determined.

US Unemployment Rates by Education Level

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

College Graduates

Less than Bachelor’s Degree

Less than a HS Diploma

HS Graduate

Source: Current Population Statistics

Montana Unemployment Rate by Education Level, 2010 1st Half

Unemployment Rate

Less than a HS Diploma 18.1%

HS Graduate or GED 12.0%

Some College, No Degree 8.3%

Associate Degree 8.6%

Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 3.8%

Source: Current Population Statistics

Take-away Points:Why Education Matters to the Economy

• Education is highly correlated with other economic indicators:– Per capita income– Labor force participation– High wages– Lower unemployment

• High-skill workers are more productive and more capable of developing improvements in technology or process.

How is Montana Doing?MT Percent of

Population Over 25

National Average Rank among 50 States

High School Diploma

90.9% 85% 5

College Degree 27.1% 27.7% 22

Advanced Degree

8.4% 10.2% 34

Percent of Population with an Upper Secondary Degree

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2005

MT Educational Attainment is Decreasing in Lower Age Groups

25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 64 years Over 650%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

92.3% 92.9% 93.1%

81.3%

27.9% 29.0% 29.3%20.5%

High School Diploma Bachelor's DegreePercent of Population 25 Years and Older with

MT Jobs by Minimum Training Category

Long-term OJT or Related Work Ex-

perience15%

Doctoral or Pro-fessional Degree

2%

Short to Moderate OJT56%

Bachelor's with Work Experience

or Master's5%

Bachelor's12%

Associate's or Vocational Train-ing

10%

Source: Occupational Employment Statistics, 2009

How to Attract More Knowledge-Based Jobs

• Create seamless and integrated workforce training and education system to develop workers from kindergarten through graduate school to continuing workforce education.

• Create trade organizations to help foster technology diffusion and continued education for professionals.

• Attract science, technology, and professional services jobs by having a well-educated workforce.

• Attract entrepreneurs to start businesses in Montana with our quality of life and access to outdoors, but improve transportation so they can still access customers.

Today’s Topics

1. Drawing the Connection between Education and the Economy

2. Education as an Economic Development Tool

3. Education and Workforce Training – Helping Workers Adjust to a Changing Economy

Significant Loss of Jobs in the 2007-2009 Recession

2007 2008 2009 201090%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

U.S. 5.4% Job Loss

MT 3.5% Job Loss

Source: Current Employment Statistics, 2007 through June 2010 preliminary

Recession Job Losses by Industry

Mining and Logging, -1,000

Construction, -9,600

Manufacturing, -3,000Trade and Transportation; -

3,400

All Other, -2,500

Professional and Business Services; -

3,600

Leisure Activities; -5,100

Health Care and Government: Plus 9,800 Jobs

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 4th quarter 2007 to 4th quarter 2009

Regional Impact of RecessionAnnual Job Growth by Region, 2007 Q4 to 2009 Q4

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Northwest Southwest North Central South Central Eastern State

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

Occupations with the Largest Losses Statewide

Occupation Estimated Recession Losses

Carpenters -2,010Retail Salespersons -1,398Construction Laborers -1,066Cashiers -851Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks -697Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer -622Electricians -513Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators -450Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters -445General and Operations Managers -435

Ten Occupations with the Largest Losses in Northwest MT

OccupationNumber of Jobs Lost

Carpenters -640Retail Salespersons -530Cashiers -300Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks -300Construction Laborers -290Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer -270Waiters and Waitresses -250Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food -220Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators -200Electricians -190

Some Jobs will Return, but Excess Supply of Workers will Continue

Job Losses

Projected Annual Growth

Years to Full

Employment

Carpenters -640 20 32Retail Salespersons -530 91 6Cashiers -300 21 14Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Audit Clerks -300 52 6Construction Laborers -290 11 27Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer -270 15 18Waiters and Waitresses -250 33 8Food Preparation and Serving Workers -220 34 7

Operating Engineers -200 9 23Electricians -190 7 28

Top Ten Occupations with Job Losses in Northwest Montana with Projected Openings

Ten Growing Occupations with Unmet Demand for Workers

Occupation

Projected Annual Growth

Registered Nurses 98Accountants and Auditors 72Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 72Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing 70Office Clerks, General 66Cooks, Restaurant 63Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 61Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 53Personal and Home Care Aides 52Lawyers 47

Directing Displaced Workers into Appropriate Occupations

• Workforce training and education are needed to retrain into growing occupations that don’t have excess supply.

Excess Workers Occupations

Retail Salespeople

Carpenters or Construction Laborers

Wait Staff

Occupations that Need Workers

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing

Maintenance and Repair Workers

Lawyers?

Thank you.

Please visit www.ourfactsyourfuture.orgto view Dr. Eldridge’s presentation.