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www.pitt.edu/~super/. Just-in-Time Lecture Pakistan Earthquake 8 October 2005. Ardalan A, Kazmi Kh, LaPorte RE, Holakouie Naieni K, Dodani S, Pourmalek F, Shubnikov E, Linkov F, Russel M, & Noji EK. Mission Statement: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Just-in-Time Lecture
Pakistan Earthquake
8 October 2005
www.pitt.edu/~super/
Ardalan A, Kazmi Kh, LaPorte RE, Holakouie Naieni
K, Dodani S, Pourmalek F, Shubnikov E, Linkov F,
Russel M, & Noji EK
Mission Statement:
The Global Health Network
Disaster, Network for Earthquake
is designed to translate the best
possible scholarly information
from leading researchers to
educators worldwide.
Lecture objectives:
To provide the best possible scientific
information about the Pakistan
earthquake of 8 Oct 2005
To teach how the science can help
prepare for primary & secondary
prevention of consequences of
Pakistan earthquake, 8 Oct 2005
What is the earthquake?
The shaking of earth caused by waves
moving on and below the earth's
surface and causing: surface faulting,
tremors vibration, liquefaction,
landslides, aftershocks and/or
tsunamis
It caused by a sudden slip on a FAULT.
Stresses in the earth's
outer layer push sides of
fault together.
Stress builds up & rocks
slips suddenly, releasing
energy in waves that travel
through the earth's CRUST
& cause the shaking that we
Feel during an earthquake.
How the earthquake happens?
Earthquake Strength Measures I)
Magnitude & II) Intensity
I) Magnitude:
Definition: A measure of actual physical
energy release at its source as estimated from
instrumental observations.
Scale: Richter Scale
By Charles Richter, 1936
Open-ended scale
The oldest & most widely used Noji 1997
Earthquake Strength Measures
I) Magnitude & II) IntensityII) Intensity:
Definition: a measure of the felt or perceived
effects of an earthquake rather than the strength
of the earthquake itself.
Scale: Modified Mercalli (MM) scale
12-point scale, ranges from barely
perceptible earthquakes at MM I to
near total destruction at MM XII
Magnitude refers to the force of the earthquake as
a whole, while intensity refers to the effects of an
earthquake at a particular site.
An earthquake can have just one magnitude, while
intensity is usually strongest close to the epicenter
& is weaker the farther a site is from the epicenter.
The intensity of an earthquake is more germane to
its public health consequences than its magnitude.
Magnitude versus Intensity
Northward movement of the Indian
subcontinent
(40 mm/yr = 1.6 inches/yr)+
Colliding with the Eurasian continent
Earthquakes & active faults in
Northern Pakistan
& adjacent parts of India & Afghanistan
US
GS
Seismicity of Pakistan
Concentrated in N and W of the country, along
the boundary of the Indian plate & the Iranian
& Afghan micro-plates
Thrust zones:
Kirthar
Sulaiman
Salt ranges
4 faults in & around Karachi
Based on Expected Ground Acceleration,
Pakistan is divided into 4 earthquake hazard
zones.
Peak Ground Acceleration (m/s2)
Seismicity of Jammu & Kashmir
Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:
One of the strongest
earthquakes in the area since a
mammoth M7.6 in Sep 1555 with
max density XII in Kashmir
(Jammu & Kashmir) and India
DateMain LocationMDeath
20 Nov 2002Gilgit-Astore6.323
3 Nov 2002Gilgit-Astore5.317
1 Nov 2002Gilgit-Astore5.51
26 Jan 2001Near Bhachau (Gujarat)7.620
27 Feb 1997Near Harnai (Baluchistan)7.350
9 Aug 1993Hindukush Mountains 7.0-
31 Jan 1991Hindukush Mountains 6.7300
29 July 1985Hindukush Mountains7.45
30 Dec 1983Hindukush Mountains7.414
12 Sep 1981Gilgit Wazarat (Jammu & Kashmir), India6.1-
History of earthquakes in Pakistan, 1980-2004
Largest earthquake in Pakistan !
Date: 30 May 1935
Location: Quetta / Balouchistan
Magnitude: 8.1 on the Richter scale
Time: 19:00:46.9 UTC
Epicentre: 27.39N, 88.75E
Depth: 17 Kms
Death: 30,000
Pakistan’s Health Statistics:
Total population: 153,578,000
GDP per capita (Intl $, 2002): 1,920
Life expectancy at birth m/f (years):
62,0/62,0
Healthy life expectancy at birth m/f
(years, 2002): 54,2/52,3
Pakistan’s Health Statistics:
Child mortality m/f (per 1000): 98/108
Adult mortality m/f (per 1000): 225/199
Total health expenditure per capita
(Intl $, 2002): 62
Total health expenditure as % of GDP
(2002): 3,2
Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:
Geolocation: 34.402°N, 73.560°E
Region: Pakistani controlled Jammu &
Kashmir at N of Pakistan & Punjab
& Himachal Pradesh at N of India.
Countries affected: Pakistan, India, Afghanistan
Affected area: Forest-clad mountains
Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:
Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)
Epicentre Distances from Islamabad: 90 Km NNE
Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:
Magnitude: 7.6 on the Richter scale (USGS)
7.8 on the Richter scale (JMA)
Classification: Major
Aftershock: ~ 200 from 5.4 – 6.2
Date: Saturday 8 Oct 2005
Time: 8:50 AM at the local time
Death toll: ~ 50,000
Injured: ~ 70,000
Affected population:
Severely: 3.027.900
Marginally: 5.260.183
Displaced/homeless:
3.3 million
Pakistan Earthquake
Impacts
Balakot area: The worst hit area
20,000 causalities
90% buildings destruction
100% homeless
Muzaffarabad: 80% destroyed
City of Bagh: Totally destroyed
Main affected areas
Damage to health infrastructure:
Destruction of:
26 hospitals
3 Tuberculosis hospitals
> 600 PHC centres
The United Nations flash appeal
for Pakistan to cover the relief
needs for a 6 months emergency
phase:
US$ 312 million
When disaster strikes, years of development can be wiped out in
seconds
Relief operation obstacles:
Huge numbers of injured
Helicopters as the only means to get to
cut-off villages
Logistical challenges
Rapidly deteriorating weather conditions
Continuous rains at nights
Blocking roads by landslides
Heavy clouds
Critical needs of the affected
population:
Winterised shelter up to 600,000 (based on
3 million needing shelter, 5 persons per
family)
Medical services
Water & sanitation
Nutrition
Reaching populations in villages
Health needs & concerns: Cold temperature (<0) & hypothermia Lack of sanitation facilities Lack of adequate & safe drinking water Need to water purification plants & Water tanks Need to latrines Problem of sanitary disposal of excreta and Basic hygiene Inadequate food Unaccompanied, separated, orphaned children Risk of diarrhoeal illnesses, pulmonary diseases & non-treatment of injured and infected open fractures & gangrenes
Dead bodies do not lead to epidemics,
but the bad odour is always a problem, as
it is true in Pakistan and was in Bam.
Solution: Spraying campaigns with
chlorine
A major problem in efficient service delivery to really affected people:
Increasing number of people moving into
Balakot from outlying villages seeking
assistance!
Bam earthquake lessons learned:
We should focus on:
Incident Command System (ICS)
Inter and Intra sectoral Coordination
Emergency Health Information System
(EHIS)
Public Health Consequences of
Earthquakes
Pease see the following lectures:
Part I.
http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13021/index.htm
Part II.
http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13051/index.htm
Time of Pakistan earthquake,8 Oct 2005:
Around 9 AM on Saturday & most
students were at schools when the
earthquake struck !!
Epidemiology of fear:
I feel we need to reach out first, are schools
all over Pakistan but particularly in cities like
Lahore and Islamabad who experienced
earthquake but fortunately escaped with out
major damage. These young minds are also
affected by the stories of hundreds of young
students who have lost their lives in other
areas. Dr. Khawar Kazmi
People need information as much as
water, food, medicine or shelter.
Information can save lives, livelihoods &
resources.
Lack of information can make people
victims of disaster.
World Disaster Report 2005 – IFRC/RCS
0.95
0.62 0.62
0.050
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
Flood Earthquake Cyclone Drought
Average Disaster Per Year in Pakistan
UNDP
69
1118
20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Flood Earthquake Cyclone Drought
Proportion of People Killed per Type of Disaster (1980-2000)
%
UNDP
94
80
69
30102030405060708090
100
Iran Japan Pakistan USA
Comparison of Proportion of People Killed following Earthquakes between Pakistan &
other countries (1980-2000)
UNDP
%
1,500,000
50,0000
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
Cardio Vascular Disease Earthquake
Comparison of 10-year death in Pakistan between Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) &
Earthquakes
30 times more death due to CVDs than earthquakes
Earthquake Nature:
Almost unpredictable disaster
No early warning
No scientific prediction technology
But we can protect ourselves &
minimize the damage to our
homes, schools & work places.
What we should do/do not
before, during & after the
earthquake?
Please read carefully at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/faq/prepare.html