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JUNE 2015
UPDATES
UPDATES
Home Prices
The Impact of Monthly Housing
Inventory on Home Prices
LESS THAN
6 MONTHS
BETWEEN
6-7 MONTHS
GREATER THAN
7 MONTHS
SELLERS
MARKETHomes prices
will appreciate
NEUTRAL
MARKETHomes prices
will only
appreciate with
inflation
BUYERS
MARKETHomes prices
will depreciate
FHFA
Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Price by Region
FHFA
Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Price by State
FHFA
Quarter-Over-Quarter Percent Change in Price by State
Source: CoreLogic
12-Month Home Price Change
1-Month Home Price Change
Source: CoreLogic
13.2%12.9%
12.4%
10.8%
9.3%
8.1%
6.7%
5.6%
4.8%4.5%
4.3% 4.5%4.6%
5.0% 5.0%
Jan2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2015
Feb Mar
S&P Case Shiller 5/2015
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES
20 City Composite
Case Shiller
6.8%
5.1%
2.7%
12 Month 3 Month 1 Month
CoreLogic National Home Price Index 6/2015
Change in Residential Single Family
HOME PRICES
Home Price
Expectation
Survey
A nationwide panel of
over one hundred
economists, real estate
experts and investment
& market strategists.
Average Annual %
APPRECIATION
Pre-Bubble
Bubble
Bust
Recovery
To Date
Home Price Expectation Survey 2015 2Q
PROJECTEDMean Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2015 2Q
Cumulative House
Appreciation by 201926.7%
19.4%
11.8%
BullsAll
ProjectionsBears
Home Price Expectation Survey 2015 2Q
8.7%
11.3%
4.8%
6.0%5.3%
2012 2013 2014 2015 April 2015 - April 2016
Core Logic
Percentage Change in U.S.HOME PRICE APPRECIATION
PROJECTED
“All signs are pointing toward
continued price appreciation
throughout 2015…
Anand Nallathambi, CEO of CoreLogic
Tight inventories, job growth
and the impact of demographics
and household formation are
pushing price levels in many states
toward record levels.”
Is another
HOUSINGBUBBLE about to take place?
“This spring buying season
is off to a strong start - in
fact, prices are going up
faster than they were just a
few months ago, according
to nearly every recent metric.
So does that mean we’re in a bubble?
Nope, that’s just what happens when
demand increases faster than supply.”
Jonathan Smoke, realtor.com Chief Economist
“Given the long stretch of
strong reports, it is no
surprise that people are
asking if we’re in a new
home price bubble…
I would describe this as a rebound
in home prices, not a bubble and
not a reason to be fearful.”
David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of
the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices
Without data, you’re just
another person with
an opinion. W. Edwards Deming
6.8%
5.1%
2.7%
-9%
12 Month 3 Month 1 Month Peak-to-Current
CoreLogic National Home Price Index 6/2015
Change in Residential Single Family
HOME PRICES
Source: CoreLogic
9%
Price & Time Since The Peak
It’s not about
having the dots.
It’s about
CONNECTING
the dots!!
Seth Godin
$187,000 $195,400
$223,200
$5,400 $5,400 $5,500
2010 2013 2015 Projected
Homeowner Renter
NAR
Increasing Gap in Family Wealth
Increasing Gap in Family Wealth
$182K $190K $218K
NAR
$250,000
$260,750
$270,398
$279,592
$288,539
$297,772
January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020
$47,772
Increased home equity based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey
potential growth in family wealth over the next five
years based solely on increased home equity
Home Price Expectation Survey 2015 2Q
$217,726
$18,672
$54,879
30 Year Total Financial Benefit of Owning Penalty of Waiting 1 Year to Buy Penalty of Waiting 3 Years to Buy
realtor.com 5.2015
The COST of
Waiting to Buy*Nationally, the
estimated wealth an
average buyer
would accumulate
over a thirty
year period
*Assuming projected increases in mortgage
rates and continuing price appreciation
$18,672
$54,879
Penalty of Waiting 1 Year to Buy Penalty of Waiting 3 Years to Buy
realtor.com 5.2015
The COST of Waiting to Buy**Assuming projected increases in mortgage
rates and continuing price appreciation
$680
$720
$760
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Median Asking Rent
2010 - 2014
U.S. Census
4,300,000
4,400,000
4,500,000
4,600,000
4,700,000
4,800,000
4,900,000
5,000,000
5,100,000
5,200,000
5,300,000
Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr
NAR 5/2015
EXISTINGHome Sales
NAR 4/2015
6.1%
1.6%
3.6%
6.4%
13%
U.S. Northeast South West Midwest
by region
EXISTING
-10.1%
9%
21.2%19.1%
18%
13%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% -10.1% 9.0% 21.2% 19.1% 18.0% 13.0%
% Change in Sales from last year
by Price Range
NAR 5/2015
33 3935 4539
4539
49
2014 2015
Jan Feb March April
281 281
282 295
355 403
422425
2014 2015
Freddie Mac
EXISTING
NEW
HOME
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
January2014
February March April May June July August September October November December January2015
February March April
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 5/2015
PENDINGHome Sales
NAR 5/2015
14.0%
9.4%
13.3%14.8%
16.4%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Year-over-Year Pending Home Salesby region
July 2013 August September October Novem ber Decem ber January 2014 February March April May June July August September October Novem ber Decem ber January 2015 February March April
Foot Traffic
NAR 5/2015
…according to the First-Time Buyer Mortgage
Share Index by AEI’s International Center on
Housing Risk
52.2% of all buyers
were first time
buyers in April
AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk
First Time Home Buyers
AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk
532K
577K
November 2013-April 2014 November 2014-April 2015
Number of primary
owner-occupied,
first-time buyerpurchase mortgages
8.5% increase
5.2
5.7
5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
5.3
5.1 5.1
4.4
4.64.7
4.6
5.3
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Mar Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2015
last 12 months
6%
5.2%5%
-0.50% -0.50% -0.50%
2%
-0.90%
September October November December January 2015 February March April
NAR 5/2015
Inventory
Levels Year-over-Year
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
Freddie Mac 5/2015
Freddie Mac
Actual Rates January 2013 – June 2015
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
Freddie Mac 5/2015
Freddie Mac Rates April – May 2015
30 Year Fixed Rate
Mortgages
Decade Average Rate
1970s 8.86%
1980s 12.7%
1990s 8.12%
2000s 6.29%
Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade
Freddie Mac
4.5%
3.7%
4.0%
4.2%
3.9%
4.9%
2011 2012 2013 2014 May 2015 2016
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
QuarterFannie
Mae
Freddie
MacMBA NAR
Average of all Four
2015 3Q 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.1%
2015 4Q 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.2%
2016 1Q 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4%
2016 2Q 4.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6%
Mortgage Rate Projections
4/2015
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
Where Are They Going?
Q3
Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Where Have
They Been
This Year?
Freddie Mac
Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate
“The rule for when is it
time to refinance or buy
is always the same: given
your household budget and
where current interest rates are, if it
makes good financial sense to
refinance or take out a home loan
today, then today is the day to do it.”
Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae
April2013
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2014
Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2015
Feb March April
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a
report from the Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Credit
Availability
112
114
116
118
120
122
Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb March April
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a
report from the Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Credit
Availability
UPDATES
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
June 2012 January 2013 January 2014 Jan 2015 March
S&P Case Shiller 5/2015
Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
Case Shiller
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
% -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% 5.5% 5.8% 4.5% 6% 5.2% 5% -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 2% -0.90
NAR 5/2015
Year-over-Year
Inventory Levels
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
January2011
January2012
January2013
January2014
January2015
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2015
2011 - Today
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Mar-13 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2015
last 2 years
5.1
4.4
4.64.7
4.6
5.3
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2015
last 6 months
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
Jan2012
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2013
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2015
Feb Mar Apr
NAR 5/2015
EXISTINGHome Sales
90
95
100
105
110
January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 5/2015
PENDING Home Sales
Jan
2012
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2013
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2015
Feb Mar Apr
Percentage of
Distressed Property
Sales
35%
10%
15%
NAR 5/2015
January 2012 - Today
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
6,7,8 FHFA Price Maps http://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspx
9 & 10 CoreLogic Price Maps http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-index-report.aspx
11 Case Shiller Reporthttps://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/185742_cshomeprice-release-
0526.pdf
12 CoreLogic National HPI http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-index-report.aspx
13-16Home Price Expectation
Surveyhttps://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2015_HPE_Survey.php
17CoreLogic % Change in US
Home Price Appreciationhttp://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-index-report.aspx
18 Anand Nallathambi Quote http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic_hpi_march_2015.pdf
20 Jonathan Smoke Quote http://www.realtor.com/news/home-prices-climbing-faster-but-this-is-no-bubble/
21 David Blitzer Quotehttps://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/185742_cshomeprice-release-
0526.pdf
23, 24
Change in Single Family
Home Prices, Price & Time
Since Peak
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-index-report.aspx
26, 27Increasing Gap in Family
Wealthhttp://www.realtor.org/infographics/widening-wealth-inequality-at-the-local-level
28
Correlation Between Home
Equity Appreciation & Family
Wealth
https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2015_HPE_Survey.php
ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
29, 30 The Cost of Waiting to Buy
http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/origin/multivu_archive/ENR/0-Financial-Benefit-of-Owning-Market-List.pdf
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-report-finds-waiting-to-buy-a-home-could-cost-thousands-
300089980.html
31 Median Asking Rent http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
33, 34, 35,
37, 38
Existing Home Sales, %
Change by Price Range,
Pending Home Sales, YOY
Pending Sales by region
http://www.realtor.org
36 Home Sales in Thousands http://www.freddiemac.com/corporate/blog/research_and_analysis/20150527_1_april_home_sales.html
39 Foot Traffic http://www.realtor.org/infographics/april-2015-foot-traffic
40, 41, First Time Homebuyers http://www.housingrisk.org/
42, 43Inventory Levels: Y-O-Y & last
12 monthshttp://www.realtor.org
46, 47, 30 Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
48 Historic Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140324_dirt_cheap_to_cheap.html
49 30 Year Fixed Rate by Year http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/may_2015_public_outlook.pdf
ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
50 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_052115.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/may_2015_public_outlook.pdf
https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mortgage%20Finance%20Forecast%20May%202015.pdf
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2015/embargoes/phs-4-29/Forecast-04-2015-us-economic-
outlook-04-29-2015.pdf
51 Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.html
52 Doug Duncan Quote http://www.thehomestory.com/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-fed-and-your-mortgage/
53, 54 Mortgage Credit Availability http://www.mba.org/ResearchandForecasts/MCAI.htm
56Case Shiller YOY Price
Change
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/185742_cshomeprice-release-
0526.pdf
57 – 60
YOY Inventory Levels,
Inventory 2011 – Today, Last
2 years, Last 6 months,
http://www.realtor.org
61-63Existing Home Sales, Pending
Home Sales, Distressed Saleshttp://www.realtor.org
68 Robert Rose Quote http://sethprice.net/podcast/the-things-you-need-for-a-winning-marketing-strategy-with-robert-rose/
69 hootsuite Quote http://blog.hootsuite.com/social-media-content-marketing-mistakes/
How Can I Help?
Phone (720) 200-6868
E-Mail [email protected]
Cherry Creek Mortgage Company NMLS #3001
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.
Kirsten Hamling
Marketing