June, - Nevadastate.nv.us/nucwaste/library/se-056-93.pdf · Catherine Fowler, John Gervers, Robert Halstead, Roger Kasperson, Richard Krannich, Howard Kunreuther, Ronald Little, C.K

STATE OF NEVADA SOCIOECONOMIC STUDIES OF YUCCA MOUNTAIN

1986 - 1992 AN ANNOTATED GUIDE AND RESEARCH SUMMARY

James Chalmers, Doug Easterling, James Flynn, Catherine Fowler, John Gervers, Robert Halstead,

Roger Kasperson, Richard Krannich, Howard Kunreuther, Ronald Little, C.K. Mertz, Alvin Mushkatel,

K. David Pijawka, Paul Slovic, and James Williams

June, 1993

Since 1985, the Nevada Agency for Nuclear Projects has monitored the U.S. Department of Energy's proposal for locating a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain in Southern Nevada. As part of its oversight, the Agency has contracted for studies of various technical and socioeconomic issues associated with the Yucca Mountain program. The studies encompasses by this report were funded by DOE Grant Number DE-FG08-NV10461.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv

Introduction by James Flynn, Decision Research and

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . James Chalmers, Coopers & Lybrand 1

1.0 Study Design by James Flynn, Decision Research and

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . James Chalmers, Coopers & Lybrand 15

2.0 Project Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by James Williams, Planning Information Corporation 25

3.0 Economic-Demographic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by James Williams, Planning Information Corporation 4 1

4.0 Government Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by James Williams, Planning Information Corporation 62

5.0 Fiscal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by James Williams, Planning Information Corporation 76

6.0 State Agencies, State Government, and Intergovernmental Relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by Alvin Mushkatel, Arizona State University 87

7.0 National, Regional, and Nevada State Surveys by James Flynn, Decision Research and

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C. K. Mertz, Decision Research 99

8.0 Social-Cultural: Rural Communities by Ronald Little, Utah State University and

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Richard Krannich, Utah State University 1 14

9.0 Urban Area Impacts by K. David Pijawka, Arizona State University and

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . James Flynn, Decision Research 130

10.0 Socio-Cultural: Native American . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by Catherine Fowler, University of Nevada, Reno 143

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain ii

11.0 Case Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by John Gewers, Latir Energy Consultants 163

12.0 Risk Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by Roger Kasperson, Clark University 182

13.0 Risk Perception and Behavior by Paul Slovic, Decision Research and

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . James Flynn, Decision Research 196

14.0 Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by Roger Kasperson, Clark University 2 12

15.0 Trust and the Repository Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by K. David Pijawka, Arizona State University 223

16.0 Management and Policy by Howard Kunreuther, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Doug Easterling, Colorado Trust 231

17.0 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . by Robert Halstead, Nevada Wmte Project OfJice 242

18.0 An Overview by James Flynn, Decision Research and

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . James Chalmers, Coopers & Lybrand 277

Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 8 6

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References 287

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain iii

Acknowledgements

The Nevada Nuclear Waste Project Office (NWPO) and the contributing authors of

this volume would like to acknowledge that the research presented in this book is a result of

an extensive collaborative effort. A special thanks is due to the State of Nevada Technical

Review Committee, whose expert advice, support, and professional encouragement

contributed greatly to all aspects of the research. Their constructive reviews were greatly

appreciated. The Technical Review Committee members and their affiliations are:

Gilbert F. White, Chairman, Gustavson Professor Emeritus of Geography, University

of Colorado

Michael S. Bronzini, Director, Center for Transportation Analysis, Oak Ridge

National Laboratory

E. William Colglazier, Executive Director, Office of International Affairs, National

Academy of Sciences

Bruce Dohrenwend, Professor of Social Science and Public Health, Columbia

University

Kai Erikson, Professor of Sociology and American Studies, Yale University

Reed Hanson, President, Hansen Research Associates

Allen V. Kneese, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future, Inc.

Richard Moore, Independent Consultant

Edith Page, Manager, Federal Programs, Becktel, Inc., Washington, DC

Roy Rappaport, Professor of Anthropology, University of Michigan

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain

The research project and this report also benefited from the contributions of a large

number of researchers, analysts, managers, and support staff. Numerous authors and co-

authors, whose names can be found in the annotated bibliographies of each chapter and in the

reference list, are especially notable, and we wish to record our debt to them here. Support

staff persons we wish to recognize are Kari Nelson, Leisha Mullican, Toni Daniels, Anna

Kaiser, Louann Ruller, Jim Toma, and Gail Gesell. Lydia Dotto provided a careful and

professional reading that greatly improved the text.

Finally, we would like to note that the management, administration, and coordination of

the studies were a cooperative effort. James Chalmers, Partner, Coopers & Lybrand in

Phoenix, Arizona, served as the study team project director; James Flynn, Research

Associate at Decision Research in Eugene, Oregon, managed the project; and Joseph C.

Strolin, Chief of Planning for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Project Office, Carson City,

Nevada, represented the State of Nevada.


Introduction by James Flynn, Decision Research and James Chalmers, Coopers & Lybrand

This volume is the summary report for the State of Nevada Yucca Mountain

Socioeconomic Studies conducted between 1986 and 1992. The Nevada Nuclear Waste

Project Office (NWPO) initiated and funded these studies under the provisions of Public Law

97-425, the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982.

The unique nature of the high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) program, combined with the

pervasive uncertainties and the particularly hazardous nature of radioactive wastes to be

managed, present socioeconomic researchers with an unusual challenge. The long time

expected for study, licensing, construction, and operation of the repository, along with a

Congressional requirement that retrieval of the wastes be maintained as an option for 50

years after storage activities begin, mean that direct on-site activities will be required through

much of the next century. In addition, the federal program is expected to provide assurances

of safety for 10,000 years. The combination of these conditions means that normal standards

for conducting socioeconomic studies-developed in the decades following the passage of

National Environmental Protection Act of 1969-had to be expanded and in some cases

completely revised to provide responsible socioeconomic impact assessments.

Federal government programs to manage the nation's nuclear wastes have a complicated

history dating back to the Manhattan Project of World War 11. The development of the

civilian nuclear power industry beginning in the 1950s and the nationwide construction of

more than 100 commercial reactors during the following decades focused national attention

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Introduction 1

on the need for a federal high-level radioactive waste disposal program. The federal

government had responsibility for wastes from both the nation's weapons production facilities

and the nuclear power industry. After hearings that covered three sessions, the U.S.

Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 (NWPA). President Reagan signed

the law in January 1983.

The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982

Writing the legislation of the NWPA was an arduous process that involved several

powerful stakeholder groups.' The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the nuclear electric

power industry (both utilities and engineering-construction companies), environmental and

anti-nuclear groups, potential host states, Indian Tribes, and a wide array of Congressional

committees were involved in drafting the NWPA.

Responsibility for siting, designing, constructing, and eventually operating the nation's

first HLNW repository was assigned to the DOE, a mission-oriented agency with

responsibility for manufacturing, testing, and supplying nuclear weapons to the military, and

for managing radioactive wastes produced by the nation's defense weapons programs. A new

agency, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), was established

within DOE to implement the repository program. The NWPA of 1982 designated the U.S.

Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as the federal agency to evaluate and license the

plans to construct, operate, and provide for long-term storage at the site. It is up to the U.S.

-

'Carter, L. (1987). Nuclear Imperatives and Public Trust: Dealing with Radioactive Waste. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future; Jacob, G. (1990). Site Unseen: The Politics of Siting a Nuclear Waste Repository. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Introduction w 2

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to establish the criteria and standards of the DOE

repository program. The original standards would have required that the repository produce

less than 1,000 cancer deaths during 10,000 years.2

In writing the NWPA, Congress envisioned that spent fuel would be placed in an

operating repository by 1998. The Nuclear Waste Fund (NWF), which pays for the

repository program, comes from a fee collected by the utilities (one mill per kilowatt hour of

nuclear-powered electric production) and from federal government payments for defense

wastes. Congress makes annual appropriations from the Fund to the DOE repository

program. The legislation also included a procedure by which the President could exercise an

option to use the civilian repository facility to dispose of HLNW from defense weapons

facilities.

In addressing the concerns of stakeholders, Congress included a series of conditions to

confront issues of the scientific legitimacy, equity, and public acceptance. These conditions

included:

A program with two repositories. NWPA allows a maximum loading of 70,000 metric

tons of heavy metal (MTHM) at the first repository, assumed to be in the West, and

development of a second repository in the eastern United States. This arrangement

2EPA determined in 1985 that the repository must provide assurances of containment so that not more than 1,000 cancer deaths would result for a period of 10,000 years (40 CFR 191). This regulation was overturned in federal court because certain sections were not consistent with the Safe Drinking Water Act. Congress passed provisions in the Energy Policy Act of 1992 directing that the EPA base its new regulations on health standards to be recommended by the National Academy of Sciences.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Introduction . 3

addressed questions of geographical equity, because most of the nuclear power sites

are in the East.

Oversight of DOE site programs by potential host states and Indian tribes. Payments

for these activities were to come from NWF allocations.

State or Indian tribe right to veto the selection of a site for a repository or a

Monitored Retrievable System (MRS)3 within its borders, subject to override by a

majority vote in both houses of Congress.

Impact assistance for host states and Indian tribes to mitigate socioeconomic,

environmental, and other impacts. The Secretary of the DOE (Secretary) is directed to

make grants to states and Indian tribes so such governmental entities can review the

repository activities and determine any potential economic, social, public health and

safety, and environmental impacts for the State and its residents; develop requests for

impact assistance; oversee and monitor site characterization activities; provide

information about the repository to State residents; and obtain information from, and

provide comments and recommendations to, federal agencies with regard to a

repository site (see, NWPA, section 1 16(2)(b)).

Grants equal to taxes for state, local, or tribal governments. The grants are to be in

the amount that would be paid as taxes if the repository were taxed like other

industrial facilities and activities.

3An MRS would provide a new facility away from the commercial reactors where HLNW could be handled and stored on a interim basis prior to being sent to permanent disposal.


Recognition of the principle that the current generation should bear the costs of the

program and not future generations.

Other conditions that exempted the repository program from certain provisions of the

National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA), designated the federal appeals courts

as the courts of original jurisdiction, specified DOE to report to Congress, made

provisions for certain transportation issues, required studies on interim or MRS

storage, and gave the President options for including defense wastes in the program.

The Nuclear Waste Policy Act Amendments of 1987

Five years after the passage of the NWPA, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste

Policy Act Amendments of 1987 (NWPAA). These amendments

Abrogated the site selection process established in the NWPA and designated Yucca

Mountain, Nevada, as the only site to be characterized as a potential repository

location. In case Yucca Mountain failed the site characterization examination, DOE

will report back to Congress for further instr~ctions.~

Canceled DOE'S plans to develop an MRS facility in Tennessee and established a

commission to examine the need for an MRS component in the waste disposal system.

Congress established the Office of Nuclear Waste Negotiator with the authority to

negotiate with volunteer communities for an MRS or a repository. Agreements for

volunteer hosts would be subjected to Congressional review and approval.

4Site characterization involves research to determine if a site is suitable for development as a repository. The site characterization studies would serve as the data for licensing and permitting repository construction and operation.


Directed DOE to discontinue work on the second repository to be located in the

eastern U.S. and to report back to Congress before 2010 on the need for this

repository.

In other provisions, the NWPAA of 1987

Authorized cash payments to host states, tribes, and local governments in amounts of

$10 million per year during characterization and $20 million annually once waste

began arriving at a repository. MRS hosts would be eligible to receive $5 million

during characterization and $10 million during operations. In exchange for these

benefits, recipients would surrender rights to veto selection of the site or to receive

impact mitigation assistance, and they would agree to cooperate with DOE in the

siting process.

Established a Presidentially appointed Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board to

oversee and monitor DOE activities at Yucca Mountain and any subsequent repository

or MRS site.

Required DOE to report to Congress on the potential socioeconomic, environmental,

and public health and safety impacts of locating a repository at Yucca Mountain (the

Section 175 Report).

Specified DOE responsibilities to state and local governments for certain areas of

transporting HLNW and mandated a study of on-site dry cask storage as part of the

HLNW program.

Established standing for "affected units of local government" to include the in-situ

local government unit and units of government that "are contiguous with such unit."


Reiterated the role of the state government in overseeing the DOE program and in

conducting socioeconomic studies to determine the potential and actual impacts.

The Pro~osed Site: Yucca Mountain. Nevada

The Yucca Mountain site is located in Nye County, Nevada, about 100 miles north of

Las Vegas and a few miles from Highway 95. The site includes three parcels of federal land

historically assigned to the U.S. Air Force, the Bureau of Land Management, and DOE

operations at the Nevada Nuclear Test Site. The Secretary of Energy nominated Yucca

Mountain for site characterization studies in May, 1986, along with sites at Hanford,

Washington and Deaf Smith County, Texas. The NWPAA of 1987 removed the Washington

and Texas sites from further study, leaving only Yucca Mountain for site characterization.

Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Studies

The Environmental Assessment documents from DOE describe Yucca Mountain as a

suitable geological formation of tertiary tufaceous volcanic material (a rock made of

compressed volcanic ash) that extends, in this region, to depths of 6,500 feet and more. The

southern part of the Great Basin experiences very low precipitation; at Yucca Mountain the

average annual rainfall is 5.91 inches. Construction of the proposed repository would be in

an unsaturated zone about 1,000 feet below the surface of the mountain and between 600 and

1,300 feet above the water table.

The purpose of site characterization studies is to determine whether volcanic, tectonic,

and hydrologic conditions, as well as transportation, handling, and storage of HLNW can

meet criteria for public health and environmental safety specified by the EPA regulations. It


is up to the NRC to determine the adequacy of the DOE plans, studies, and analyses before

issuing repository permits.

Major Areas of Risk and Uncertainty

Site characterization studies must address numerous areas of uncertainty by providing

the scientific and technical data to assure that Yucca Mountain can meet EPA health and

environmental safety criteria. It has been difficult to establish the applicable standards. The

original regulations would have required that no more than 1,000 cancer deaths result during

the next 10,000 years, a time span that challenges the predictive abilities of natural and social

sciences alike. The NRC will issue the licenses only after the site performance data and

analyses are reviewed and approved. The technical risks and uncertainties result from several

sources:

The physical characteristics of the site, including potential earthquakes or other

tectonic hazards, volcanos, and hydrologic performance at the site.

The amount of waste to be placed in the repository. The current statutory limit is

70,000 metric tons of heavy metal, which is well below the government estimates of

need even under a "no new nuclear power plants" scenario. Changes in the size of the

repository would change a wide range of technical and socioeconomic variables

responsible for potential impacts.

The ability to make risk assessments. Risk assessments have never been done for the

variety of conditions that apply to a HLNW repository, and the scientific and

technical capabilities of risk assessors may not resolve the issues and uncertainties


involved. The National Research Council report specifically cautions about the uses

of geological information and analytical models. Using these tools "to pretend to be

able to make very accurate predictions of long-term site behavior-is scientifically

unsound" (p. 4).

The need for risk assessment to be expanded to cover issues of human error, quality-

assurance failures, human intrusion, and acts of sabotage and terrorism. Other areas

that must be included in proper risk assessment include potential retrieval of

radioactive wastes (a capability required under the legislation and regulations) and

alternatives to the proposed repository program (e.g., interim at-site dry cask

storage).

The schedule for the repository project is highly uncertain. Past schedules for even

the earliest phases of the program have been unreliable, with the implication that the

current schedules will not be met. Interruptions or delays in construction or operation

activities are possible due to any number of causes. The uncertainty associated with a

wide range of potential schedules further complicates impact assessment and project

management planning.

System components are still in the design or pre-design phases. For example, the role

of a MRS in the repository program is not clear; it has no agreed-on function or

location. Under current law, an MRS may not be sited in Nevada or put into

operation before a construction permit for the first repository is issued. These

'~ational Research Council Commission on Geosciences Environment and Resources. (1990, July). Rethinking High-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal: A Position Statement of the Board on Radioactive Waste Management. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.


restrictions assure potential hosts of an MRS that it would not become a de-facto

permanent storage facility.

System components could change or their development could be significantly altered.

These components include the role of waste producers in packaging and storing

HLNW at the reactor or defense sites, cask designs, and issues of waste

consolidation, waste acceptance rates, priorities for disposal (e.g., from defense or

civilian stations; from operating or decommissioned stations), incorporation of new

technologies (e.g., robotics, phototransmutation), and new regulatory requirements or

standards. All of these items could greatly impact the repository program. Serious

consideration of the retrieval options also could require significant changes in the

design, schedule, and licensing requirements of the entire effort at Yucca Mountain.

Transportation of HLNW to the repository, a critical component of the system,

remains in a pre-design phase. No precise definition of transportation routes exists,

and modal mix (rail or truck), timing, volumes, oversight and management,

equipment, emergency response capabilities, intergovernmental coordination, need for

special facilities, or public acceptance has not been established.

The ability of the federal government to provide adequate management and

administration of a repository program remains in doubt. A number of program

analysts have questioned the ability of DOE to fulfill this role,6 and the National

Makhijani, A. (1989). Reducing the risks: Policies for the management of highly radioactive nuclear waste; Advisory Panel on Alternative Means of Financing and Managing Radioactive Waste Facilities. (1984). Managing nuclear waste-A better idea: A report to the U.S. Secretary of Energy.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Introduction 8 10

Research Council (1990) has suggested essential revisions in DOE management

structure and objectives.

Uncertainty about human, institutional, and societal behaviors and activities, both

during the period of immediate and direct supervision by the federal government and

for the hundreds and thousands of years afterward. These uncertainties present

potential risks to the safe functioning of a repository that have not been adequately

addressed.

Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Studies

In the case of the Yucca Mountain site, the State of Nevada is both authorized and

required to evaluate the socioeconomic consequences of the HLNW program, including the

potential impacts that could result from site characterization, construction, operation, and

permanent or temporary storage of wastes at the site.

The 1985 Nevada Legislature established the Agency for Nuclear Projects/Nuclear

Waste Project Office (NWPO) as the state agency responsible for oversight of the repository

project. Together with a Steering Committee composed of state, county, and local

government representatives, the NWPO outlined a set of criteria for conducting

socioeconomic studies and requested proposals.

In March 1986 NWPO signed a contract with a study team of university and

professional researchers headed by Mountain West Research, Inc. of Phoenix, Arizona. The

University of Nevada, Reno and University of Nevada, Las Vegas were represented along

with Clark University, Arizona State University, the Wharton School at the University of

Pennsylvania, Decision Research and the University of Oregon, and Planning Information


Corporation of Denver, Colorado. Individuals and groups from other research centers were

added to address specific problems and to provide professional and technical assistance over

the following years.

Both the NWPO and the study team understood from the beginning that the project

was challenging and unprecedented. To provide an objective review, NWPO established a

Technical Review Committee (TRC) made up of distinguished social science researchers and

professionals. At periodic meetings, the NWPO, county and local representatives, study team

members, and the TRC examined research plans and issues, provided rigorous peer review

of study findings, and gave guidance to future study directions.

Rethinking Socioeconomic Impact Studies

During the 1970s and 1980s impact assessment professionals worked to understand

the ways in which significant projects could affect the economy, populations, public facilities

and services, revenues and fiscal conditions, and the social, cultural, and political life of

designated study areas. These research areas usually applied to communities and counties.

Socioeconomic impact assessment tools included models that dealt with project descriptions

as driving variables, the economic and demographic conditions of designated study areas, and

the public services and fiscal responses. Along with more qualitative descriptions of social

and cultural effects, these established approaches constituted the "standard" effects or

impacts-those that had a history of application and utility when applied to a wide range of

industrial, commercial, and resource development projects.

The employment, spending, and potential revenues associated with the Yucca

Mountain repository indicated that the standard effects would be large and should be studied,


monitored, and evaluated. The NWPO, the study team, and the Technical Review Committee

agreed that such research was essential to conducting adequate socioeconomic evaluations of

the Yucca Mountain project. In addition, this research could provide a basis for making any

claims for impact assistance, as provided by the NWPA and its amendments.

At the same time, a repository is unique in that significant socioeconomic impacts

might result from the hazardous nature of HLNW. The long, arduous history of trying to site

HLNW facilities against public opposition was ample warning that a repository could

provoke strong, negative public responses. Numerous states and communities had decided

that despite the potential advantages of the employment, spending, and tax benefits of a

repository to a host community, and even the suggestion of extraordinary compensation,

hosting such a facility was not worth the potential adverse impacts.

These concerned responses to a potential repository seemed to be based on public

perceptions that HLNW posed unacceptable dangers to human health and the environment.

Another associated concern was that nonresidents (people from outside the area) might have

negative responses to an area identified with a HLNW facility or process, and their responses

might adversely affect their willingness to visit such areas, or to look for jobs, retire, or start

businesses there. These potential negative consequences, based on a combination of intuitive

estimates of unacceptable risk and adverse impressions of a state or community associated

with HLNW, were designated as stigma effects. Such effects could particularly threaten an

economy like Nevada's, which is strongly dependent on tourism, gaming, visitations, and

continued outside investment. Subsequently, research into the origins and mechanisms of


potentially adverse effects resulted in the more general titles of stigma effects or stigma

impacts.

The potential socioeconomic conditions of the Yucca Mountain repository project

presented the study team with a number of uncommon research questions. The unique nature

of a repository facility, the uncertain schedules, public risk perceptions and potential

behaviors, the highly charged political atmosphere, and the need to develop new and

innovative research approaches were addressed in the study design and the subsequent study

efforts. The following chapters, which begin with a short introduction followed by an

explanation of the objectives of the research, the general methods used, an annotated

bibliography of reports submitted to the NWPO, the major findings, and the implications for

further research, present a detailed description of the research effort that resulted.


1.0 Study Design by James Flynn, Decision Research and James Chalmers, Coopers & Lybrand

The proposal submitted to the Nevada Nuclear Waste Project Office (NWPO) in 1985

outlined a broadly based socioeconomic impact study to address areas of critical interest in

evaluating the nation's first high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) repository. Many of these

research areas presented unique conditions and potential effects. NWPO held meetings with

the study team members, outside consultants, state and local government representatives, and

the Technical Review Committee (TRC) that resulted in a revised study design (Final Draft

Study Design, 1986). Intensive research followed this review and produced the First Year

Socioeconomic Progress Report (1987). A second comprehensive account of the research was

presented in An Interim Report (1989). These documents are discussed below.

1.1 Objectives

The contract between NWPO and Mountain West Research (1986) summarized the

overall objective of the Yucca Mountain socioeconomic studies:

The objective of this project is to identify and quantify the

[socioeconomic] impacts associated with siting, constructing,

operating (including the transporting of nuclear materials), closing

and decommissioning a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca

Mountain and to identify attendant impact mitigation and

compensation strategies. The study must develop and be based upon

adequate baseline information and it will be necessary to assess both

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Study Design . 15

short-term and long-term effects of a repository from statewide,

regional (or multi-county), county, city and community-level

perspectives.

The study design shown in Figure 1.1 presents an integrated research effort. The study

design was based on a detailed database and a database management system. The information

available would have to be capable of addressing short- and long-term issues, be interactive

so that a wide range of scenarios could be dealt with, and be capable of responding to overall

project and specific issues. This information was to serve as the basis for technical and

policy analyses, as well as for making judgments about programs and project activities.

Figure 1.2 shows the Socioeconomic Impact Assessment and Projection Model. This

model presents the data and analysis processes so that a with-project condition is compared to

a without-project alternative to estimate impacts. Impacts are defined as the difference

between the without-project and the with-project cases, are determined by systematic

comparisons, and are characterized as positive or negative, as they differ from the without-

project case. Impacts must result from comparisons for the same time period, geographical

area, type of data, detail of information, structuring of data, and method of evaluation. For

example, it would be misleading to compare population figures for 1990 (when a U.S.

Census was performed) with population projections for 2010, the scheduled opening date for

a repository at Yucca Mountain.

The model displayed in Figure 1.2 also shows the with-project case with two

important components: (1) standard effects, defined as employment, spending, revenues and

benefits, and the demands for public facilities and services; and (2) risk-related effects. The

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Stiidy Design 8 16

Socioeconomic technical studies Monitoring program

Historical data *Data collection Estimates and projections *Analysis *Time *Evaluation *Scenarios

Impact assessments

Mitigation/compensation Technical analysis

*Consequences -Equity considerations

-Geographic *Temporal

Mitigation/compensation

*Policies and procedures * P m g m s .Compensation

Mitigation/compensation Policy analysis and political strategy

CongressionaVnational *State *NWPO, SILSC *PR/PI *Technical Legal

Figure 1.1 Overview of socioeconomic impact and monitoringlmitigation plan.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Study Design 1 7

Baseline: Without project Cumulative: With project

6. Project description

Standard effects

Risk-related effects

Risk perception and behavior

Figure 1.2 Socioeconomic impact assessment and projection model. 1. Basic activites: economic demand for goods and services that originate outside the county; 2. Econornic/demographic: employment, income, business activities, population characteristics, housing, land use; 3. Community services and facilities: services and facilities, transportation, governmental structure and activities; 4. Fiscal: revenues and expenditures; 5. SociaVcultural: community, groups, individuals, political structure, Native American, and other ethnic groups, social well-being, quality of life; 6. Project: employment, spending, income, taxes, risk factors, worker residency, household composition; 7. Risk perception and behavior: risk assessment, information sources, perception by groups or types of individuals, political, social, and economic behavior; 8. Impact assessment: comparison of baseline (without project) to cumulative (with project).

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Study Design .I8

risk-related effects produce risk perceptions and behaviors.

The Sco-pe of Impact Assessment for the Yucca Mountain Repository

The research goal was to provide an integrated impact assessment capability that

would allow socioeconomic impacts to be included in the decision processes for licensing and

building the repository. Federal and state agencies evaluating the permitting and licensing

applications of DOE and the Nevada legislature and/or governor approving or disapproving

the nomination of Yucca Mountain as a permanent repository would use this information.

Such an integrated assessment would support attempts to mitigate potential adverse impacts

and would enhance potentially positive impacts.

Two kinds of challenges exist in making an integrated impact assessment for the

Yucca Mountain repository. First, it is necessary to establish linkages and interactive

relationships among the many complex components of the research. Second, given the

uncertainty and developing nature of both the repository program and the socioeconomic

context, it is necessary to develop new and sophisticated models, techniques, and tools that

will be flexible enough to account for the dynamic nature of the changes and alternatives that

must be evaluated from time to time. While some planning has been done on these research

and methodological issues, an on-line, integrated, socioeconomic impact assessment system

does not currently exist.

1.2 Methods

The study design developed from a literature review, the experience of study team

members and their advisers (NWPO, other consultants, state and local government

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountuin Study Design . 19

representatives, and TRC members), and the working sessions that discussed, modified, and

completed the conceptual research plans. This process produced research priorities and the

development of work task descriptions and authorizations. These authorizations were

generally for specific tasks and for limited time frames. The study team made adjustments in

both conceptual design and research work as part of their learning process.

1.3 Annotated Bibliography of Study Design and Overall Study Reports

Mountain West. (1986). Final Draft Study Design. MRDB: SE0001.

This document presents the conceptual framework used in conducting NWPO's Yucca

Mountain socioeconomic studies. Earlier drafts of the study design were reviewed by the

Technical Review Committee and the StateILocal Steering Committee, as well as by key

personnel from the study team. This document discusses the methodology used in each of the

major areas identified (economic, demographic, community facilities and services, fiscal,

intergovernmental relations, social-cultural, political behavior, Native American, and risk

assessment and perception), integrates the various components, outlines the major work tasks

for 1- and 3-year periods and describes a management and administration structure for the

study.

Mountain West. (1987). Phase III: Study Design Addendum. MRDB: SE0003.

These revisions to the 1986 Final Draft Study Design responded to the study team

learning process during the first year of the research and followed the comments and

suggestions of the TRC and the state and local government representatives. The most

significant addition was the integration of the risk studies with the other research

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Study Design 20

components. This integration involved development of new research tasks, modification of

some existing work plans, and revision of managing and coordinating the ongoing work.

Mountain West. (1987). Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Study: First Year Socioeconomic

Progress Report. MRDB: SE0002.

The First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report demonstrated how various study

components could be integrated to assess potential repository impacts on southern Nevada.

Numerous diagrams illustrated the overall framework, the interrelationships among the

components, and the conceptual approach to specific subtasks. A series of appendices

contained detailed reporting on the information and data collected. (These appendices are

referenced in the following chapters under the subject areas to which they apply-e.g.,

economic-demographic) .

Mountain West. (1989). An Interim Report on the State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies.

MRDB: SE0006.

The Interim Report was an integrated and analytic socioeconomic assessment of the

Yucca Mountain repository project based on the research conducted during the first three

years of the study. This report provides a context summary for the federal program at Yucca

Mountain. It also defines the U.S. HLNW program, the technological abilities and

constraints, and the social-political context, and finds that every dimension of the Yucca

Mountain program-from questions about the physical conditions and performance of the site

itself through transportation, handling, and program management to the social, political, and


financial context-has important elements of ambiguity and uncertainty. The NRC addressed

the implications of these technical and programmatic uncertainties in their 1990 repo~-t.7

The study team attempted to anticipate the full range of potential social and economic

consequences of a repository at Yucca Mountain for the State of Nevada, southern Nevada

(Nye, Clark, Lincoln, and Esmeralda counties), and Native American, rural, and urban

communities in the areas designated for study. The report addresses standard socioeconomic

effects and potential impacts as well as impacts that could result from the unique images and

stigma the repository might bring.

One important section of the report is on the studies of risk perceptions and potential

behaviors of laypeople to HLNW and a repository site. The Interim Report provides a

definition of the mechanisms by which the hazardous repository characteristics could lead to

behavioral consequences that adversely affect Nevada and its citizens. The application of this

model to the Yucca Mountain case indicates that stigma impacts could be much larger and

more negative than any offsetting positive impacts resulting from employment or spending

benefits. This section points out a potential economic risk for Nevada that has been

unexamined, and in some cases dismissed, by federal officials attempting to site a repository

at Yucca Mountain.

The Interim Report also provides information on the existing conditions and

relationships in southern Nevada and the state as a whole and estimates potential impacts

within the conditions of uncertainty for jurisdictions, communities, stakeholder groups, and

7National Research Council. 1990. Rethinking High-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal: A position statement on radioactive waste management. Washington, D . C . : National Academy Press.


regions. While this document is not a final or complete impact assessment, it does

demonstrate conceptual approaches, information sources and databases, and analytic

techniques that could be used to estimate the full range of socioeconomic impacts from the

repository project.

After reviewing the Interim Report, the TRC stated that the Yucca Mountain

repository project "has already had significant socioeconomic impacts on Nevada," that given

the nature of HLNW transportation "communities across the nation may increasingly be

concerned with the prospects for transport of waste through their areas," and that the

evidence from the stigma impacts research means that "the possibility can no longer be

ignored that the intense negative imagery surrounding the repository may cause significant

impacts on Nevada's economy and social life. "'

1.4 Major Findings

The following chapters describe the major findings of the NWPO's Yucca Mountain

Socioeconomic Studies by topic area. The major findings listed below address only issues

raised by study design tasks.

The federal program to site, build, operate, and close a national HLNW repository is

a unique effort. It involves great uncertainty, high public visibility, potential for

significant opposition by national, regional, state, local, and community stakeholders,

and possible adverse reactions from residents in the communities and state of a

'Nevada NWPO Technical Review Committee. 1990. Interim Statement of the Technical Review Committee on the Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Project. Carson City, Nv.: NWPO.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Study Design . 23

proposed site, as well as stigma impacts from adverse reactions of people outside the

host state. The scope and intensity of response to HLNW facilities, and particularly to

a permanent repository, require an unusually flexible, inclusive, and innovative study

design to adequately understand impacts likely to occur.

Integration of a variety of social sciences, including several that have not traditionally

cooperated on preparing socioeconomic impact assessments, is time-consuming and

difficult. Planning for a high level of coordination and integration requires an unusual

allocation of resources and time, and support for such an effort requires unusually

detailed databases, records, and library materials.

The research expertise for addressing the socioeconomic impact assessment

requirements of a HLNW repository is distributed nationwide, and extraordinary

efforts must be put into communications and study team coordination.

The nature of the Yucca Mountain repository program requires that study design be

revised over time to address changing perspectives of three major areas of research:

(1) identification and quantification of socioeconomic impacts; (2) studies in risk

perception and behavior; and (3) monitoring, planning, and management of impacts.


2.0 Project Description by James Williams, Planning Information Corporation

Socioeconomic impact analysis starts with a description (in useful socioeconomic

terms) of the project or program-the proposed action-that causes impacts. These direct

effects interact with the relevant socioeconomic contexts9 to produce the socioeconomic

impacts. The estimated impacts have implications for the policies for project management,

enhancement, in the case of positive impacts, and mitigation, avoidance, and/or

compensation, in the case of negative impacts (see Figure 2.1).

What goes into a socioeconomic analysis is a key determinant of what comes out. The

scope, detail, and relevance of the socioeconomic analysis necessarily reflect limitations in

Project description

Direct effects Standard Stigma Transportation

Nevada socioeconomic context

Figure 2.1 Socioeconomic assessment requires a description of the direct effects in terms that will correspond to the conditions of the socioeconomic context.

'For example, impacts for local economies, demographies, social systems, government facility and service systems, government finances.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Project Description 25

the understanding or description of the proposed action. Such limitations may include focus

on some aspects of the project but not others; failure to translate aspects of the project into

useful socioeconomic terms; focus on expected or intended courses of action while ignoring

other possibilities or contingencies; descriptions at irrelevant or highly aggregated geographic

levels; and descriptions that do not integrate dimensions of time, topic, and geography.

Compared to a typical energy or mining development, description of the Yucca

Mountain repository project and program poses special challenges:

Nevada-based activity occurs in the context of a national program subject to annual

policy and budget adjustment. Nevada-based activity, therefore, can be properly

understood (described) only in the context of the national (DOEIOCRWM) repository

program, and, indeed, the nation's nuclear power industry and its future capacity.

The repository program and project involve substantial annual expenditures in five

major program categories and 20 subcategories; at least 75 years of site

characterization, construction, operation, and decommissioning; an interconnected set

of milestones that determine the implementation schedule for program subcomponents;

and increasing inventories of high-level waste discharged by nuclear reactors (and

defense facilities) across the nation, accepted by the federal government at certain

rates, and shipped to the repository (perhaps via an MRS) in various packages and by

alternative modes and routes. In accounting terms alone description of the repository

program and project is a major task.

For socioeconomic assessment purposes, direct effects of the repository program and

project can be described from at least three major perspectives-(1) standard effects


(e.g., employment and procurement); (2) transportation effects (e.g., shipments,

containers, modes, and routes); and (3) stigma effects (e.g., risk perceptions and

behavior). These effects are interrelated by issues of milestones, geography, waste

inventory and acceptance, and program funding flows.

Many key variables of the repository program and project are uncertain and likely to

remain so. As the project unfolds affected entities must be able to consider alternative

combinations of possibilities (delay, best cases, worst cases, etc.) on a consistent

basis.

The above challenges apply to DOE, the State of Nevada, and affected local

government entities with program oversight responsibilities. From time to time DOE

produces information describing program expenditures, milestones, waste inventory, potential

interim storage sites, possible transportation routes, and current employment. This

information is useful and in fact necessary for any description of the repository program and

project. However, it has two key limitations. First, DOE information is not usefully

integrated for multi-dimensional socioeconomic impact analysis. Second, most DOE

information reflects the agency's current expectations or intentions, not the range of

alternative possibilities and contingencies of interest or concern to communities whose futures

could be affected by this repository.

Due to the uncertainty in the repository program, and the limitations of DOE

information, project description work to date has not focused on developing a single scenario

in precise detail, as in a traditional impact assessment program. Instead, focus has been on

developing a project description tool, or model, capable of synthesizing missing information

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Project Description 8 27

and developing alternative scenarios that encompass responses to the uncertainty within the

repository program. In order to handle the information demands of this approach, the State

of Nevada's study team developed a computerized system to manage inputs and assumptions

and to simulate and compare resulting project description scenarios.

By using a systems development approach and computerization (see Figure 2.2), the

project description may be modeled to reflect a variety of assumptions about the evolution of

the Yucca Mountain project-from those that echo DOE intentions and expectations to those

that incorporate alternative possibilities and contingencies of interest to the State of Nevada

and other affected parties. The ability to project and analyze the full spectrum of potential

socioeconomic impacts depends on the ability to generate a wide range of viable project

description scenarios.

2.1 Objectives

The project description study goal has been to develop a computerized information

management and simulation model that can produce alternative but internally consistent

scenarios. This goal resulted in the following objectives:

To identify the key project description variables. Among the most important are

recent and anticipated expenditures for the Yucca Mountain repository, significant

milestones in the repository development schedule, the scale of the waste inventory to

be dealt with, the projected timeline for waste discharge from current storage sites,

the projected timeline for waste acceptance at Yucca Mountain, and the occurrence

(or not) of events or signals (highly salient messages; see chapter 13) that could

trigger risk perception and stigma. The key variables break down into those

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Project Description . 28

OCRWM high-level nuclear waste program &

$ $ Nevada project

$ Nevada stigma

I

Standard: , Transportation: Trustlconfidence Signal events

Employ Containers Stigma effects Residency I Modes Vulnerable: Procurement I Routes *Economies

Shipments *Geographies I

.

Nevada socioeconomic context

Figure 2.2 Repository project description involves interrelationships of a national program with standard, stigma, and transportation effects in Nevada-considerable complexity and uncertainty over long time scales.

State ofNevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Project Description m29

describing the national waste management program; those describing the Nevada

project in employment, procurement, and transportation terms; and those describing

potential stigma effects for vulnerable economic sectors and places in Nevada.

To build the project description database by identifying, developing, or assisting to

develop (through interaction with DOE or other interested parties) information useful

for defining and operationalizing each key variable. This objective may entail

developing new data, but more often entails reconciling or synchronizing related but

inconsistent data generated by various DOE agencies and contractors at various stages

of the national HLNW management effort.

To design and program the computerized database and simulation model. This process

involves specifying and coding the formulas that link key variables and establish the

basis for producing alternative but mutually consistent scenarios as outputs. An

important requirement for the model is that it incorporate interactive screens and

menus so that multiple users may create scenarios for the repository program and the

Yucca Mountain project, reflecting possibilities or contingencies of particular concern

to them.

To revisit the previous two objectives as required to update or enhance the database,

to recalibrate or modify existing linkages or model components based on newer or

better information, and to suggest refinements, extensions, or elaborations of the

model as a whole.

To make model runs that produce scenarios that can be used as inputs for multi-

disciplinary socioeconomic impact assessment of the Yucca Mountain repository in


Nevada. In conjunction with this integrated assessment, the scenario system may be

applied to strategic planning or education, with multiple model runs laying the basis

for a range of "what if" impact assessments.

2.2 Methods

An adaptation of the generalized systems development process has been used to

realize the project description scenario system described above. The process included:

Identification, collection, and analytic review of available information on relevant

aspects of the repository program.

System design in concept and then in detail. This stage included the review of

preliminary system designs by members of the project team and the State-Local

Government Planning Group.

Development of a project description system, including modeling of systems

components and integrating information resources with model components.

Identification of linkages among model components (an appropriate calculation

sequence) and computerization of these linkages.

Creation of user interface-the menus and screens that enable a user to step through

the scenario system in a convenient manner. The system design allows a user to

depart from default assumptions at selected points, examine the implications of

assumptions in process, maintain a record of assumptions made, and present graphic

representations of scenario variables.

Documentation of systems design and concept, information resources, model linkages,

and model calibration.


Preparation of a user guide that describes the model variables, background on

alternative choices for each variable, and a general description of model operations at

each step.

2.3 Annotated Bibliography of Study Reports

Planning Information Corporation, Clark University, CENTED, and Mountain West. (1987).

Project Description (Appendix A. 1.0) in First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report.

MRDB: PD0001.

This report specifies repository project information requirements as the first step of an

integrated socioeconomic impact assessment. Information requirements include detailed

estimates of standard project characteristics (employment, earnings, procurement,

transportation shipments, project organization, and project management policies), and

estimates of potential stigma effects associated with the project's radiological character and

related risk perception and behavior. The report addresses existing project description

information made available at the time by DOE in terms of requireinents and project

uncertainties. The report also presents estimates of site characterization, construction, and

development impacts produced by applying the NWPO impact assessment system (as

developed at the time) to alternative project description scenarios. The report emphasizes

standard project characteristics throughout; stigma and other characteristics are fully treated

in other documents produced for NWPO.

Planning Information Corporation. (1988). NTS E~nployee Questionnaire: Data Coding and

Summary Tabulation. MRDB: PD0005.

Stute of Nevrrdn Socioeconomic Strides of fiiccu Mountcliri Project Description 32

Planning Information Corporation. (1988). NTS Survey Design Process and Development of

Survey Administration Procedures.

The Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the Yucca Mountain Repository Project involve the

same lead agency, many of the same prime contractors, similar geographic locations, and

similar funding, contracting, and project management policies. Therefore, the NTS provides

a potentially useful analogue for the workforce, residency, and other characteristics that may

be expected at the Yucca Mountain site-assuming current context conditions persist.

The first report contains preliminary frequency distributions for most items from a

survey of NTS employees conducted in April 1988. Distributions cover personal and

household demographics, place of residence to the ZIP code level, housing type and tenure,

place of work by NTS area, occupation, labor relations status, union membership, work

schedule, length of NTS employment, pre-employment mobility, mobility plans, commuting

characteristics, use of workweek residence, and satisfaction with community and work. The

report also contains the questionnaire and information on survey scope, administration,

analysis of response, and the structure and coding of data files. The second report assembles

background materials that describe survey instrument evolution and procedures for its

administration.


Planning Information Corporation. (1989). Repository Workforce, Residency, Purchases and

Other Characteristics. MRDB: PD002 1.

This report presents four analyses of NTS and other data that develop the repository

project description. The analyses assume NTS characteristics may approximate repository

characteristics because of the similarities in lead agency, contractors, and project

management policies. Databases analyzed included the 1988 NTS employee questionnaire and

the 1987 NTS purchases from REECo. Section 1 analyzes relationships among selected NTS

employee characteristics. Section 2 describes a gravity model calibration of NTS employee

residency using the NTS employee questionnaire database. Section 3 analyzes NTS purchases

to estimate Nevada purchasing and Nevada content. Section 4 presents a prototype repository

project description scenario synthesized from the foregoing analyses and other data and

covers standard, as opposed to stigma, repository effects.

Planning Information Corporation. (1990). Repository Scenario Development System

(DRAFT). MRDB: PD0030.

Planning Information Corporation. (1991). Yucca Mountain Repository Scenario System.:

Background, Summary, and Progress Report (DRAFT). MRDB: PD0044.

These documents are progress reports on the development of the Repository Scenario

Development System (RSDS), a computerized simulation model to convert fundamental

assumptions about the repository program into detailed project characteristics required for

impact assessment. As described here, the RSDS provides default values or allows user

overrides for 20 key variables in three groups (national repository program, standard effects

in Nevada, and stigma effects). Default input values come from a database assembled from


DOE publications, plus assumptions to fill existing gaps. The output report (a repository

scenario) consists of a list of assumptions, project description variables for input to the

REMI economic forecasting model, and variables describing other relevant project

characteristics. The first report (MRDB: PD0030) emphasizes the "dimensions of

uncertainty" in the repository program as currently described by DOE; the second report

(MRDB: PD0044) emphasizes RSDS as a tool for project oversight and local strategic

planning.

2.4 Major Findings

The repository program and project is a very large, complex, and long-term

endeavor, many aspects of which are uncertain and interrelated. Uncertainties (in

program options, project components and design, schedule, spending, waste

inventory, waste acceptance and shipment, etc.) will be resolved only incrementally

over years, even decades, of time.

Planning in this context (whether in the form of strategic planning or integrated

socioeconomic assessment) requires a system that describes key variables and linkages

and assists various parties to explore alternative possibilities and contingencies. Given

the number of years involved (70+), the number of major program categories (25-

30), the relevant geographies (e.g . , national context, southern Nevada, affected

communities), and the relevant socioeconomic dimensions (e.g., flow of funds,

employment and jobs, waste volumes and shipments), such a system must be assisted

by computers. The use of such a system and the evaluation of input assumptions and

outputs can enhance understanding of the uncertainties and interrelationships of the


repository program and project, and can thereby enhance program oversight by staff

officials, elected officials, and ordinary citizens.

DOE produces vast amounts of information about the repository program and project,

much of which has implications for potential standard or stigma socioeconomic effects

in Nevada. However, the information is generated for DOE'S engineering,

accounting, geotechnical, andlor waste management purposes, and little of this

information is directly useful as a project description for analysis of standard or

stigma socioeconomic effects in Nevada. Part of the project description task is to

synthesize information of various types in a systems structure that yields descriptions

of direct project effects in useful socioeconomic terms and at geographies needed for

analysis of impacts in Nevada and its communities.

While various affected entities need to assess particular types of direct effects (e.g.,

employment, procurement, shipments), in particular geographic contexts (e.g.,

county, community, transportation corridor), consistent descriptions of relevant direct

effects at useful geographic levels require a whole systems view. That is, coherent

descriptions of the scale and timing of direct effects at the community or county levels

must be developed via a system that includes relevant features of the national

repository program. This applies whether one's focus is on standard effects (flow of

funds, number and type of jobs, procurement patterns), transportation effects

(shipments of certain volumes of high-level waste via certain routes or modes), or

stigma effects (the implications of risk perceptions and trust for vulnerable economies

and geographies in Nevada).


In its design, development, maintenance, testing, and application, the repository

scenario system provides a valuable framework for monitoring the repository program

and for performing ongoing research investigation. It also serves as a tool for

systematic identification of relevant linkages and relationships and provides a

framework within which many research findings can be usefully applied.

Regarding the national repository program, DOE and its contractors provide useful

information about total systems life cycle costs, the inventory of nuclear waste and its

acceptance by the federal waste management system, various waste management

systems under consideration, and key milestones and implementation schedule. Most

of this information reflects current DOE intentions and expectations and lacks a

systems point of view directly relevant to analysis of socioeconomic effects in

Nevada. Therefore, in itself, the substantial volume of information on the national

repository program is of little assistance in considering alternative possibilities

(likelihoods) and contingencies, and/or socioeconomic effects (standard or stigma) in

Nevada.

Regarding standard socioeconomic effects of the repository project in Nevada, DOE

currently provides little reliable information. There is no information on flow of funds

or procurement, limited information of uncertain reliability on employment and

employment characteristics, and no information is formulated for socioeconomic

and/or policy analysis on project management policies. However, in consultation with

the site county and other affected counties, DOEIYMPO is developing promising

information systems to monitor procurement and employment in particular. This


information will help calibrate systems linkages between the national program and the

national project.

DOE provides no information on stigma effects (e.g., adverse impacts on tourism,

immigration, etc.). NWPO research is developing concepts linking trust, perceived

risk, stigma events, and stigmatization. A reduced version of these concepts and

linkage to vulnerable Nevada economies and geographies is included in the scenario

system. It serves as a preliminary framework of hypotheses on the links between

signal events (signs of potentially serious conditions) and potential stigma effects. The

framework and the calibration should be refined and developed based on further

research and monitoring.

2.5 Implications for Future Work

A computerized project description scenario development system has been

developed,1° but it has not been thoroughly tested by state and local staff agencies with

program oversight responsibilities, or by other agencies or groups who may be interested in a

systems view of the repository program. One result of such testing could and should be a

prioritized list of system refinements, updates, and enhancements.

Assuming that geologic disposal of HLNW is retained as an option and that Yucca

Mountain is retained as a potential geologic disposal site, a well maintained and regularly

updated project description scenario system is necessary resource for program policy

oversight and/or multi-disciplinary socioeconomic assessment for the following reasons:

'punding by Nye County (the site county) and NWPO.


A scenario system helps Nevada officials effectively manage under conditions of

uncertainty in the national program (e.g., in schedule, geography, funding, inventory

acceptance, program form).

A scenario system assists Nevada officials in understanding the repository program as

a whole system in which standard, transportation, and potential stigma effects in

Nevada are viewed as manifestations of the national program.

A scenario system provides the essential starting point for multi-disciplinary

assessment using integrated socioeconomic systems.

A scenario system makes it possible for many parties with differing interests and

concerns to conduct assessments on a coordinated basis.

These purposes suggest the following initiatives to maintain, update, and develop the

project description scenario system:

Updates of key DOE information on the national program1' should be evaluated and

incorporated in the Project Description Scenario Development System

(PDSDS)-which then permits users to consider scenarios that systematically depart

from DOE'S current intentions and expectations.

As information systems for monitoring the Nevada repository project yield useful

results, these results should be applied to calibrate the "Nevada project" components

of PDSDS. In turn, PDSDS applications will suggest extensions of the repository

monitoring information systems and/or policy investigation into issues such as the

"For example, modifications of the milestone schedule, updates of total system life cycle costs, expectations regarding the location and character of interim storage, waste inventory and waste acceptance projections, shipment cash alternatives.


effectiveness of procurement initiatives, busing subsidies, community development

assistance, or job training programs. DOEIYMPO has made substantial efforts

recently to develop more detailed and reliable information on repository-related

employment and procurement. Nye County has made particular efforts to cooperate

and engage with DOEIYMPO in the design and development of these information

systems.

Special study results should also be evaluated and incorporated in the PDSDS as

appropriate. Examples include certain nuclear waste transportation investigations

conducted by UNLV's Transportation Research Center, procurement policy initiatives

by Nye County and DOE, and management plans for the site characterization effort

by DOE and its contractors.

The framework of hypotheses linking signal events and potential stigma effects with

vulnerable Nevada economies and geographies should be developed and refined in

coordination with ongoing risk perception research, thus maintaining a capability for

integrated assessment of standard and/or stigma socioeconomic effects.

Linkages between the PDSDS and systems describing the Nevada socioeconomic

context should be developed. A connection among economic-demographic components

in particular, government systems, and fiscal and other components of an integrated

assessment system should also be made. Understanding these relationships at the

county level is useful but not sufficient; descriptions at corridor and community levels

are also required.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Sttidies of Yucca Mountain Project Description 40

3.0 Economic-Demographic by James Williams, Planning Information Corporation

The local context for socioeconomic impact assessment contains several key

components: economy, demography (population characteristics), land use, govemment

services and systems, including public revenues and finances,'* socio-cultural characteristics

(related to demographic characteristics), political organization (related to government systems

and finances), and so forth. Description of the local context must account for the dimensions

of time13 and geography.14 Further, it must account for key interrelationships, such as those

between economy and revenue resources, between demographic characteristics and

govemment systems requirements, between economic conditions and demographic

characteristics, and between fiscal conditions and government services provided (see Figure

3.1).

A systems approach is required to develop and maintain a useful, defensible, and

flexible description of an extensive, complex, and dynamic local context, such as the portions

of Nevada potentially affected by the repository program. A systematically developed and

analytically linked description of economy and demography (E-D), government systems

requirements and expenditures, and government revenues and finances (see Figure 3.2) has

12The economy and demographic (E-D) characteristics continue through the public revenues and make up the E-DIFiscal component.

13For example, recent past (since enactment of NWPA in 1982); current (e.g., ongoing monitoring); and short-term (5 to 10 years), mid-term (10 to 20 years), and long-term (over 20 years) futures.

14For example, statewide and substate regions, counties, incorporated cities, unincorporated communities, transportation corridors, and subjurisdiction service areas.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Economic-Demograpltic 8 41

Government systems requirements,

Government revenues, finances

Direct effects Socioeconomic context

Figure 3.1 Socioeconomic assessment: Direct effects create impacts in a particular urban or rural socioeconomic context.

several roles in integrated socioeconomic monitoring, projection, and impact assessment:

It describes baseline conditions-in this case, conditions in the absence of the

repository program and project. The accuracy or reliability of projection systems

declines as one moves from the short-term to mid-term and, particularly, to long-term

Figure 3.2 Components of an integrated E-Dlfiscal assessment system have primary, secondary, and feedback linkages.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Economic-Demographic 42

Project description Economy and Government systems Government

demography, requirements, revenues, finances land use expenditures

--- A A

. - - - - - - . '

futures. Even so, future impacts are best evaluated through comparison of coherent

and consistent projections prepared for with-project and without-project cases.

The local context information can be developed to describe particular aspects affected

by the proposed action-for example, the visitor-gaming economy along regional

transportation corridors, or the demographic character of a region, or government

systems of an affected rural settlement. In other words, how the local context is

described significantly depends on one's evolving understanding of the proposed

action and its potential impacts.

In impact assessment applications, the local context description identifies variables

directly affected by the proposed action. These variables include the economic-

demographic component of the local context description, the government systems, and

the revenue and financial components.

The analytically-linked "E-DIFiscal" components of the local context description can

provide a reference framework for application of findings from survey research,

transportation investigations, and quality-of-life evaluations-thus serving as the

analytic core of a more descriptive and integrated socioeconomic monitoring and

assessment system (see Figure 3.3).

An integrated description of the local socioeconomic context constitutes a major

resource for systems analysis and management in the affected areas. Such applications

not only test and improve the integrated monitoring and assessment systems, but they

also sustain them in readiness for periodic repository-related assessments (see Figure

3.4).

State of Nevada Socioecononzic Studies of Yucca Mountain Economic-Demographic . 43

Quality of life Image

Urban and rural groups Visitors and spending *Trust Trustfperception

Choiceslbehavior

1 Corridor effects

*Property values *Voluntary relocation

:

Nuclear waste transportation

System requirements Transportation facilities and equipment

Emergency management

Figure 3.3 An integrated E-Dlfiscal assessment system can serve as reference framework for integrated, multi-dimensional impact assessment.

The Nevada economic and demographic context in which repository effects are

occurring, and in which they will occur, is extensive, highly varied, and rapidly changing.

The site county alone extends over 18,000 square miles, equal to the combined area of four

eastern states.'' The region includes rural desert settlements with economies based on mining,

travellers, and agriculture, federal installations, and Las Vegas, a metropolitan region whose

''New Jersey, Massachusetts, Delaware, and Rhode Island

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Economic-Demographic . 44

Baseline conditions . Vulnerable sectors Vulnerable geographies Time scale

Figure 3.4 Current and anticipated economic conditions are the context for repository impact assessment.

explosive growth is driven mainly by its role as a national destination resort in the visitor-

gaming industry. The region also includes populations long associated with mining activities

or federal installations, as well as many recent arrivals with no such associations.

Furthermore, the region includes communities struggling to manage growth and others

striving to encourage it. In particular, the southern Nevada economy includes sectors that are

vulnerable to potential stigma effects (e.g., the dominant visitor-gaming industry and the

increasing influx of retirement migration), and this region's limited highway and rail network

defines corridor communities that nuclear waste transportation could impacted.

The visitor-gaming industry (a distinctive if no longer unique economic activity)

dominates the economy and fiscal condition of the state. Visitor-gaming has several

manifestations in Nevada-for example, the national and international destination resort in

Las Vegas, the tourist-traveller economy along U.S. 95 (the road linking Las Vegas and

Reno), and the tourist-recreation activities at Lake Meade, Boulder Dam, and along the

Virgin and Colorado Rivers. The significance of visitor-gaming is not only its dominant and


rather complex contribution to baseline conditions, but also its potential vulnerability to

stigma effects associated with the repository program and project (see chapter 13).

Important contributions to economic conditions and demographic character in the

affected areas are also made by retirement migration, both civilian and military. These

migrations are linked to demographic trends in southern California and other sending areas

and are potentially vulnerable to stigma effects. Business in-migration is motivated by

Nevada's favorable tax structure that is made possible in part by visitor-gaming revenues.

Federal weapons testing and military training programs (secured and/or secret activities, with

heavy subsidy for commuting and on-site services), and mineral mining (extraction from

scattered sites on federal lands, subject to boom and bust with drastic effects on nearby rural

communities) also help define the unique socioeconomic context of Nevada. It is noteworthy

that standard economic information systems do not provide adequate description for any of

these distinctive Nevada activities, with the possible exception of mineral mining. In each

case, new information systems must be created that synthesize standard and nonstandard

sources to create adequate descriptions for application in an integrated socioeconomic

monitoring and assessment system.

The studies described here were designed to consider explicitly the unique

characteristics of the repository project and the potential host state. Viewed generally, the

study team pursued the standard lines of baseline data collection and analyses, model

development, and conceptual design issues in dealing with monitoring and long-term

projections. At the same time, each investigation has, of necessity, focused on documenting,

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Economic-Demographic w 46

analyzing, and modeling potentially critical economic-demographic effects implied by the

prospect of siting a federal HLNW repository in the State of Nevada.

3.1 Objectives

The economic-demographic research goal is to describe Nevada's economy and

demography in ways that are useful in tracing the indirect and induced consequences of the

repository program and project (see chapter 2) in the affected region and communities. To do

this, it is necessary to make distinctions among economic sectors and demographic

subgroups, geographic levels (e.g., the state, southern Nevada, affected counties, Las Vegas

urban complex, rural settlements, transportation corridors), and time (recent past, current,

and short-term, mid-term, and long-term futures).

The specific objectives of the economic-demographic work are:

To create a database of economic and demographic information. Special attention is

focused on local information and ground truth, calibration at the appropriate local

level, in the description of the Nevada context.

To investigate relevant economic sectors or demographic subgroups to better

understand the relationships among the repository program and its effects (e.g., on

visitor-gaming, retirement migration, NTS, economy-demography of the state and

affected counties and communities); the internal and external drivers of the Nevada

economy, particularly the southern Nevada and Las Vegas metropolitan economies;

and the linkages between economic activities and various types of public revenues

under Nevada's state-local revenue structure.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Econornic-Demographic . 47

To use the information and findings as a resource for adapting existing or designing

new model linkages between standard or stigma effects of the repository on the one

hand and relevant economic sectors and demographic subgroups on the other, and to

apply these linkages at relevant geographies and time periods.

To monitor relevant economic sectors and demographic subgroups at appropriate

geographic levels.

To apply the monitoring data to refine the model linkages and calibrate them to reflect

reality in Nevada.

To apply the calibrated models in tracing the direct (standard and stigma), indirect,

and induced consequences of the repository program. The processes and outcomes of

the modeling effort are designed to allow a detailed review and understanding of all

assumptions and their consequences.

3.2 Methods

The methods used in the economic-demographic research involved:

Definition of key economic sectors and demographic subgroups potentially affected by

standard or stigma repository effects; and classification of relevant geographic levels

for each potentially affected economic sector and subgroup.

Identification and analytic review of available information resources for the relevant

sectors, subgroups, and geographic levels. Local information is gathered and

reviewed, whenever possible, and used to replace or adapt standard information

resources.


Definition of linkages between information resources and the socioeconomic variables.

For example, in the visitor-gaming sector it is important to distinguish between

convention and tourist visitors in urban areas, and business and tourist travelers in

rural communities; to distinguish among visitors by age, length and purpose of visit,

place of residence, income, and visitor party characteristics (e.g., vacationing

families, foreign tour groups, etc.); to attribute Nevada's visitor-gaming activities to

standard industrial sectors; to associate visitation to visitor spending of various types;

and to relate visitor spending to visitor-related revenues of various types.

Adaption of existing model calibrations (andlor developments of new or

complementary model components) so that they reliably describe characteristics and

linkages in the economies of Nevada, the affected counties, communities, corridors,

and other relevant geographical areas. Appropriate methods are required for economic

and demographic projection and impact assessment at countywide and subcounty

community levels in urban and rural economies.

In efforts leading to the First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report, the project

team applied the Planning and Assessment System (PAS), an economic base model

developed by Mountain West Research (Phoenix, Arizona) and used extensively in

assessments of western energy and resource development. Regional Economic

Models, Inc. (REMI) was chosen for application in subsequent projection of economic

and selected demographic variables at state and countywide levels. Considerations in

the selection of REMI included the complexities of the rapidly evolving urban

economy in the Las Vegas Valley, both internally and externally in its interactions


with Los Angeles, Phoenix, and other metropolitan regions in the southwest United

States; and the need, given Nevada's state-local revenue structure, for consistent

economic and demographic projections at state and county levels. In addition to

applying REMI, the project team developed complementary model components to

allocate county-level REMI outputs to impacted communities, corridors, or service

areas.

Since 1989, the REMI model has been installed at the Nevada Department of

Employment Security and at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Investigations to

adapt REMI to better describe economic and fiscal relationships in the Las Vegas

Valley have continued on a limited basis. Systems for monitoring economic,

demographic, and land use characteristics at subcounty service area levels have been

applied in Clark County-creating a necessary compliment to countywide projection

capability. Nye County has applied economic and demographic projection systems

designed around the information resources and unique characteristics of rural Nevada.

Other affected counties are considering economic and demographic projection systems

appropriate to their circumstances.

Application of model linkages, calibrated to Nevada, to assess the indirect and

induced consequences of potential standard or stigma repository effects for Nevada's

economy and demography.



Boyle, R. (1988). Business Profile of Metropolitan Las Vegas. NWPO-SE-004-88. MRDB:

ED0007.

Boyle, R. (1988). Current Target Industry Analysis: Las Vegas Metropolitan Area. NWPO-

SE-003-88. MRDB: ED0008.

Boyle, R. (1989). Assessment of the Impact of a Nuclear Waste Repository at Yucca

Mountain on the Economic Development Potential of Las Vegas, Clark County, and

the Surrounding Area. NWPO-SE-016-89. MRDB: ED0014.

Mountain West. (1989). The Economic Development Implications of Case Study Business

Impacts on the City of Las Vegas. MRDB: ED0017.

Coopers & Lybrand. (1 990). Las Vegas Business Climate Assessment. MRDB: ED0023.

Coopers & Lybrand. (1990). Las Vegas Target Industry Update. MRDB: ED0024.

These six documents apply a standard analytical framework to a local database for use

in assessing impacts on industrial development trends and potentials in Clark County and Las

Vegas. The first two reports define the economic development baseline for Clark County by

identifying industry sectors most compatible with the county's business climate profile. Based

on these analyses, the third report predicts the repository will have a negative impact on

Clark County's economic development and competitiveness for manufacturing and

distribution facilities, information processing centers, administrative office operations, and

business and professional services firms. In the last three reports, economic development

potentials and risks are explored for Las Vegas.


Mountain West. (1988). County Level Comparison of the REMINV FS 53 Model Preliminary

Baseline Projections with Other Source Projections. MRDB: ED001 1.

Anderson, E. (1990). REMI Policy Simulation Inte@ace: Overview. MRDB: ED0020.

These reports represent efforts to adapt and configure the REMI computerized

economic forecasting model for use in repository impact assessment. The first report is an

evaluation of the model that compares socioeconomic forecasts from the REMI model to

other historical data and forecasts. Comparisons are presented for total employment, personal

income, population, and labor force participation rate for Clark. Nye, Lincoln, and Washoe

counties, and for the balance of Nevada. The second report describes an REMI adaptation

developed to facilitate entry of the policy variables needed to simulate alternative repository

scenarios.

Planning Information Corporation. (1987). Housing and Land Use (Appendix A.3.5) in First

Year Socioeconomic Progress Report. MRDB: ED0004.

Planning Information Corporation. (1987). Labor Force and Income (Appendix A. 3.3) in

First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report. MRDB: ED0002.

Planning Information Corporation. (1987). Linkages to Project Description (Appendix A.3.1)

and Employment/Local Economy (Appendix A. 3.2.) in First Year Socioeconomic

Progress Report. MRDB: ED000 1 .

Planning Information Corporation. (1987). Population/Demographic Characteristics

(Appendix A. 3.4) in First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report. MRDB: ED0003.

These four documents report on economic and demographic baseline studies

describing linkages connecting the program scenario, the project description, and the impact

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Ytccca Mountain Economic-Demographic . 52

assessment system. Data collection and estimates are made for recent trends and forecasts for

employment and earnings, labor force and income, population and demographics, household

demographics, housing, and land use. Data are presented for the county and selected

subareas in Nye, Clark, Lincoln, and Esmeralda counties. Secondary data sources include the

Census Bureau, the Bureau of Economic Analysis' Regional Economic Information System,

and several Nevada state agencies. Some primary data are presented on housing and land

use. Forecasting is done with the PAS computerized economic-demographic forecasting

model.

Planning Information Corporation. (1 988). Characteristics of the Las Vegas/Clark County

Visitor Economy. NWPO-SE-002-88. MRDB: ED0005.

Planning Information Corporation. (1988). Retirement Migration and Military Retirement.

NWPO-SE-001-88. MRDB: ED0009.

Planning Information Corporation. (1988). Contributions of DOE/NV and NTS to the

Southern Nevada Economy. MRDB: ED00 10.

Planning Information Corporation. (1988). Nellis AFB and its Contribution to the Southern

Nevada Economy. MRDB: ED0012.

Planning Information Corporation. (1989). Special Features of the Southern Nevada

Economy: Nellis Air Force Base and Nevada Test Site (U.S. DOE). MRDB: ED0016.

This group of documents describes investigations of four sectors not explicitly

recognized in the design of the REMI computerized economic forecasting model: visitors and

gaming, retirement migration, the NTS, and Nellis Air Force Base. In each report available

data are assembled and analyzed and key variables and linkages are identified and described.


A conceptual model (Figure 3.5) is proposed for use in further defining standard economic-

demographic model outputs or producing independent estimates from a dedicated monitoring

database. The visitor-gaming and retirement migration studies present exploratory equations

for producing independent forecasts of visitor volume and retirement migration in Clark

County and the Las Vegas Valley. Three of the studies are companion investigations to

survey research described in chapter 13 (risk perception of visitors and retirees) and chapter

2 (characteristics of the NTS workforce) and develop descriptions of the Nevada sectors and

geographies vulnerable to or affected by aspects identified in survey research.

3.4 Major Findings

The major findings of the economic-demographic work show that:

The visitor-gaming sector dominates Nevada's economy and especially the economies

of Las Vegas and Clark County where the urban visitor-gaming economy is focused

on destination visitors and conventioneers. The visitor-gaming sector is also

important in rural areas of Nevada where is relies heavily on travelers and tourists

along intrastate travel corridors.

Standard economic information is necessary and useful but not sufficient to monitor

and project visitor-gaming activities in the dimensions and geographies required for

repository assessment. Visitor-gaming is a complex activity not easily allocated to or

identified within standard economic reporting structures. It has various manifestations

in areas such as the famous Las Vegas strip, downtown Las Vegas, communities at

Nevada's state borders, and intrastate travel corridors. And visitor-gaming activities

increasingly draw on national and international markets of families, junket visitors,

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Morintain Economic-Demographic 54

Dimensions Sectors

Visitorlgaming Retirement migration Corridor activity Business location

Time

Regionlcounty Recent (to date) Jurisdiction Current Corridorlservice area Mid-term future

Long-term future

Figure 3.5 Urban and rural communities in southern Nevada include sectors and geographies vulnerable to standard, stigma, and transportation effects.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Economic-Demographic ~ 5 5

and conventioneers who choose southern Nevada over other vacation and short-visit

options. Under Nevada law, a complex array of revenues draw on visitor-gaming

activities (e.g., gross gaming proceeds and other gaming taxes, sales and motor

vehicle taxes, cigarette and liquor taxes, and lodging room taxes) and make the state

even more fiscally dependent on visitor-gaming than economically dependent.

Retirement migration is an increasing factor in the growth of urban and some rural

communities in Nevada. These migrants can be separated into two principle groups,

military and nonmilitary. The prospective pool of retirees is quite large due to aging

trends and the propensity of households to move as they approach retirement age.

Furthermore, southern Nevada's appeal to this pool appears to have accelerated in the

late 1980s because of state attractions such as climate, tax structure, and special

attractions, such as Nellis Air Force Base facilities for military retirees. Although

retirees bring new income to the area, they require numerous services, some of which

Nevada communities are ill-equipped to provide.

Based on the attractions of location, growth, and a favorable tax system, some

economic diversification is taking place in the state, especially in southern Nevada,

and the visitor-gaming industry strongly supports this diversity.

NTS is particularly important as a distinctive current economic activity in southern

Nevada and as an analogous case that can provide insight into how the Yucca

Mountain repository project (located at the southwest corner of NTS) could affect

Nevada. NTS has the same operating agency (DOE), many of the same prime

contractors, and similar project management policies and styles.


Federal military operations in Nevada, including Nellis Air Force Base, located

northeast of Las Vegas, have a large employment base, control vast land areas, and

participate in secret military programs. These operations distort information on the

economic development patterns of the region because information on them is

restricted. Moreover,secret activities make it virtually impossible to systematically

assess their undeniable socioeconomic effects in particular counties and communities.

Important economic linkages exist between Las Vegas and other regional centers in

the southwest U.S. (e.g., the Los Angeles metroplex, Phoenix). While these linkages

are strong and multi-dimensional, how they actually work in various sectors and

under various economic conditions is not well understood.

The demography of southern Nevada reflects its economic base, its settlement pattern,

and its recent rapid growth and change. The visitor-gaming industry provides a large

number of relatively low-skill, low-wage service jobs, many filled by females.16

About 35 percent of Las Vegas visitors come from southern California, but the Las

Vegas visitor market is increasingly national in scope and includes growing numbers

of families, convention visitors, short-term (long-weekend) visitors, and recreation

travellers. The mining industry provides relatively high-wage jobs for equipment

operators and craftsmen, but jobs at particular sites have limited durations, resulting

in workers periodically moving to new areas of opportunity and/or single status

living. In contrast, DOE operations provide stable and relatively high-wage jobs for

16Female labor force participation rates are very high in Las Vegas, but low in many rural communities that have limited commercial service sectors.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mozintain Economic-Demographic . 57

technicians and professional managers, particularly for those who work at the NTS,

and their long commutes to secured facilities result in distinctive lifestyles. The

operations staff at Nellis AFB combine military personnel subject to relocation to

other Air Force facilities or assigned to temporary training missions with civilian

personnel drawn from the surrounding community. Retirement migration to the Las

Vegas Valley and southern Nevada includes many military retirees-persons in their

40s interested in second careers. Civilian retirees are drawn primarily from southern

California, but also include people from the midwest and other regions. These retirees

seek inexpensive living in a favorable climate and the attractions of Las Vegas, and

they bring attitudes toward and expectations of government formed elsewhere.

Demographic character has many implications for the economic prospects,

attitudes toward local and federal government, and sense of community in southern

Nevada-with or without the repository project. But this character also suggests many

significant linkages with the survey research discussed in chapters 7, 13, and 15-that

is, the way in which different groups perceive the repository program, evaluate its

risks, and weigh these risks with other factors. This research suggests potential

distinctions by gender, age, length of residence, level of education, household

characteristics, source of income, and/or reasons for moving to the area-all topics

reflected in the demographic components of integrated E-DIFiscal system.


Economic-demographic investigations in the Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Study

explored many of the relevant topics, tools, resources, and geographies. But due to limited


funding they were discontinued in 1989, well short of the objective to establish integrated

monitoring and projection-assessment systems maintained for application to repository issues

at countywide and community-corridor levels in urban and rural economies. Since 1989,

however, the Nye County program established monitoring and projection systems appropriate

to a rural economy, the Clark County program established integrated economic,

demographic, and land use monitoring systems appropriate for urban areas, and economic

studies supported by nuclear waste funds have continued at UNLV, UNR, and other affected

entities. Most of these efforts have been consistent with directions established in the Yucca

Mountain Socioeconomic Study, although they have been reformulated to address local

concerns, objectives, and resources. Future economic-demographic efforts in the NWPO

program must be reconsidered in the light of current circumstances (e.g., anticipated

repository program activities and milestones, coordination with capabilities under

development in affected local entities, and current NWPO priorities among the several

aspects of a fully-integrated socioeconomic monitoring and projection system). Useful areas

for future work include the following:

Pointing to potential stigma effects for particular aspects of Nevada's economy and

demography (e.g., the visitor-gaming economy generally, or a particular dimension of

the visitor-gaming economy, such as the Las Vegas convention visitors, the family

segment, or the rural communities along U.S. 95) with the maturing research on risk,

stigma, trust, and transportation. As research identifies potential stigma effects,

information systems should be developed to provide useful and defensible quantitative

descriptions of the aspects of the state considered vulnerable to the stigma effects at a


particular point in time. Research should be done to identify which aspects of the

economy, which demographic subgroups, which government systems and revenue

resources, and which counties, communities, or corridors are vulnerable to stigma

impacts.

Identifying potential stigma effects, monitoring vulnerable aspects of Nevada's

economy and geography, and providing necessary resources for analysis of attribution

linkages between stigma effects and the vulnerable economies and geographies. The

latter is a long-range research objective that may be approached indirectly via

analogous case studies. Aspects of the PDSDS systems structure provide a preliminary

and hypothetical framework for such inquiry.

Understanding that the southern Nevada economy has experienced two decades of

very rapid, sometimes explosive growth during which its interaction with regional

centers such as the Los Angeles metroplex and Phoenix has evolved and changed. The

character of these relationships-now and as they may evolve in the future-are

essential for projections of long-range economic futures for southern Nevada. And

these relationships should be a part of future economic-demographic research.

Questions to examine include: How do these linkages work in various sectors-for

example, visitation, aircraft manufacture, support services and supply, retirement

migration? To what extent do the economies move in tandem or in opposition? In

what respect are the regional economies becoming more self-sufficient or mutually

specialized? In what sectors is Nevada's allure increasing or declining? What are the

implications for small towns and areas such as Jean, Pahrump, and Laughlin


compared to the Las Vegas Valley? What are the implications for water supply, air

quality, traffic congestion, and other systems constraints for future growth in the Las

Vegas Valley?

Developing and maintaining economic-demographic modeling capabilities at regional,

state, county, subcounty, community, and corridor levels. These capabilities should be

applied to monitor and assess repository-related economic and demographic aspects as

the Yucca Mountain project continues. The results should be used as input for further

development and refinement of economic and demographic information and

assessment systems.


4.0 Government Systems by James Williams, Planning Information Corporation

The effects of the proposed repository on government facilities and services could be

extensive at all levels of government-state, county, municipal, and special service districts.

These potential public-sector impacts can derive directly from the project or indirectly from

the economic-demographic effects caused by the project. In order to estimate impacts,

baseline data must be collected and future impacts both with and without the repository must

be estimated. Government systems studies have focused on baseline data collection and

model development linking governmental systems requirements to economic-demographic

change.

The emphasis in government systems research is to develop and maintain information

systems that document current conditions and project future conditions under any realistic

baseline and repository-influenced scenario. These information systems must recognize and

build on the diversity among local government entities and provide consistent approaches

across jurisdictions. Although local government agencies maintain extensive information

systems, they are generally designed for internal operational purposes, not for cross-

jurisdictional analysis and projection in impact areas such as the Las Vegas Valley, the 1-15

or U.S. 95 transportation corridors, or the unincorporated Amargosa Valley or Indian

Springs communities.

The unique nature and uncertainty of the repository program require that projection

techniques be sufficiently flexible to address a wide range of potential impacts. This is

State of Nevudu Socioecononlic Studies of Yuccu Mountain Governnlent Systems . 62

particularly true for projections of government activities by a combination of public agencies

whose operational roles and service standards change over time.

4.1 Objectives

The government systems study goal is to describe (by monitoring and projecting over

the short-term) Nevada's government facility and service systems in a useful way for

repository assessment. This description involves establishing appropriate relationships

between government systems and economic, demographic, and land use characteristics in a

government jurisdiction, unincorporated community, or cross-jurisdiction impact area.

Supplemental linkages with repository project description andlor government revenues and

finances may also be required (see Figure 4.1). To accomplish the government systems

descriptions, it is important to categorize information obtained from agencies according to

consistent definitions of populations served, types of government service, levels and

measures of service, factors of service production (personnel, facilities, and equipment), and

unit costs of each factor. Also, it is important to understand the distinctions among

Government systems

requirements, expenditures

Services Facilities Equipment Infrastructure Staff

Figure 4.1 Economic and demographic change has implications for government facility and service needs, financial support, and organization.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Government Systems . 63

government entities (state, county, municipal, and special districts) and to acknowledge the

potential for changes in organizational structure and standards over time.

The specific objectives of the governmental facilities and services research are:

1 To identify potentially relevant distinctions and aggregations, such as distinctions

among the service population, the types of service provided, the levels and measures

of service provided, the factors of service provision (staff, equipment, and facilities),

and unit service costs (capital and operating). These distinctions are particularly

relevant in assessing urban and rural communities that change rapidly, like those in

southern Nevada, because current types and levels of services should not be assumed

to be the service standard.

To create a database of government facility and service information that describes

systems as they actually exist in state and local government in Nevada. Special

attention is focused on incorporating local information and ground truth in the

description of government systems poten tially affected by the repository program.

To use the database as a resource for designing and developing model linkages that

trace the implications of changes in population and land use for government systems

requirements and costs, under current or alternative service organizations and

arrangements. To develop procedures that start from current types, levels, and unit

costs of service for current service populations and project the overall cost of

government over the short- and mid-term on service-by-service and jurisdiction-by-

jurisdiction bases. Particular attention is focused on emergency management and other

services in which particular repository-related effects may be expected.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of fitcca Mountain Government Systems . 64

To monitor the types, levels, unit costs, and populations served by state and local

government systems in southern Nevada.

To apply monitoring data to refine model linkages and calibrate them to reflect the

state and local reality government in Nevada.

To apply the calibrated models in tracing repository program consequences (described

in terms of standard, transportation, or stigma effects) for state and local government

requirements and expenditures. The processes and outcomes of the modeling effort

are designed to allow a detailed review and understanding of all assumptions and their

consequences.

4.2 Methods

The study team adopted a systems approach to organize public agency information

and to simulate government responses to changes in community conditions. Information

systems were designed to collect and compile government operations data into consistent

functional categories, and to supply factors to project government operations into the future

at any reasonable combination of government structure and standard of service.

The methods used in the government facility and service systems include:

Identification of the institutional and organizational arrangements by which various

public facilities are provided in southern Nevada.

Compilation and analytic review of available information resources for the types,

levels, unit costs, and service populations of state and local government systems in

southern Nevada.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mortntain Governnzent Systenu . 65

Discussions with line agency service providers in state and local government in

southern Nevada to relate agency information resources to service realities, and to

identify key factors or relationships that should be reflected in projection systems.

Modeling to describe the linkages among economic and demographic characteristics,

types of facilities and services provided to specified service populations, measures of

service provided, facilities staff and equipment needed to provide the service, and unit

capital and operating costs.

Application of the models to assess the consequences of the repository program

(described in terms of standard, transportation, and/or stigma effects) for government

and to determine government expenditure requirements in Nevada under current and

specific alternative service standards.


The documents produced under the government systems study describe three general

types of efforts: inventories of local public systems conditions within specific communities;

assessments of current local ability to absorb additional government systems impacts; and

development of information systems to assist in the ongoing monitoring of local government.

The reports-listed in approximate chronological order-present the development of a

standard system to describe local government activities across jurisdictions, over time, and

under current or alternative service standards.

Planning Information Corporation. (1987). Inventory of Lincoln County Emergency

Management Systems and School. MRDB: CF0004.


Planning Information Corporation. (1987). Profile of Local Government Facilities, Services

and Fiscal Conditions for Southern Nye County. MRDB: CF0002.

Planning Information Corporation. (1987). Reconnaissance of Community Facilities and

Service Systems in Esmeralda County. MRDB: CF0003.

These documents describe public facility, service, and fiscal conditions in three rural

counties that could be substantially affected by repository development. In each of these

areas, direct standard effects of the repository (although small relative to overall repository

program effects) would be significant relative to local baseline conditions. Therefore, it is

important to establish current, detailed, and accurate descriptions of public facility and

service systems against which impacts may be measured.

Planning Information Corporation. (1987). Public Infrastructure, Community Services and

Facilities, and Fiscal (Appendix A. 4.0) in First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report.

MRDB: CF0001.

This document (an appendix to the First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report)

describes an application of FisPlan, a prototype model that assesses facility, service, and

fiscal impacts on local communities in southern Nevada. The approach described in this

document translated projections of economic and demographic conditions obtained in the

Planning and Assessment System (later replaced by the Regional Economics Model, Inc.

described in chapter 3) into a projection of baseline facility, service, and fiscal conditions.

Together with a repository project description in standard employment and spending terms

(see section 3.3, PD000 I), a second scenario indicating facility, service, and fiscal conditions

with repository impacts was developed. This document represents a framework for facility,

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Government System . 67

service, and fiscal analysis that was enhanced in later tasks to include more detailed

inventory and assessment tools.

Planning Information Corporation. (1988). Inventory of System Characteristics (Working

Draft). MRDB: CF0005.

This document represents a compilation of current data on local government systems

among southern Nevada jurisdictions likely to experience most of the direct standard effects

of a repository at Yucca Mountain. Combining data from prior inventories (CF0002,

CF0003, and CF0004) with information collected during the spring of 1988, this inventory

was the first printed version of fundamental and indispensable compilation of local

government characteristics. It is updated periodically and used as needed to support

government systems analysis. The document also includes data summaries required for

developing, calibrating, and updating government systems and fiscal projection models

described in chapter 5. By combining the data reported in this document with economic and

demographic data, current standards for types, levels, and costs of service may be

monitored.

Planning Information Corporation. (1988). Community Development Report: Town of Beatty,

Nevada. MRDB: CF00 10.

Mountain West. (1989). Goldfield, Esmeralda County: 1989 Community Projile (Preliminary

Draft). MRDB: CF0009.

These documents represent specific applications of community inventories (combining

facility, service, and fiscal as described above, and economic and demographic as described


in chapter 3) to assess the potential for absorption of impacts in two rural Nevada

communities with unique context conditions. The Goldfield study describes conditions in a

community that would be affected primarily by transportation impacts, and the Beatty study

describes conditions in a community in which impacts would be added to a baseline of

potential fiscal stress caused by fluctuations in its mining economy.

Planning Information Corporation. (1 989). Description of a Proposed Computer-Assisted

Development Tracking & Analysis System for City of Henderson, NV. MRDB:

CF0008.

This document describes a process for creating a computerized tracking system that

would allow local government agencies in an urban community to monitor the effect of

residential and nonresidential development on local facilities, services, and infrastructure

systems. This concept was developed further in North Las Vegas, with emphasis on the fiscal

impacts of development, as described in section 6.3 (MRDB: FS0008).

4.4 Major Findings

The major findings of the government facility and service systems research are:

The complexity of state and local government systems requires special attention to

validly attribute a systems effect to an economic cause, or to project government

systems requirements into the future, particularly if the exercise applies to multiple,

widely varying and rapidly changing governmental entities (see Figure 4.2). Many

agencies are responsible for providing state and local government facilities and

services in southern Nevada. These agencies operate within multiple and varying

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yzicca Mountain Government Systems . 69

Cities

Counties

Special districts

State agencies

Types of services

Service population

Service level

Service delivery

Capital and operational costs

Figure 4.2 Local and state government involve many complex organizations providing facilities and services of various types to various populations at various levels.

government organizations and under differing legal authorities and mandates. Services

are provided to assorted service populations in various rural and urban service

geographies. These combinations are not static. They change in response to social,

economic, and demographic conditions, and they will certainly change in the future,

with or without the repository.

No standard system exists to describe government facility or services, and/or the

relationships between government systems and the populations, land uses, and

activities served. That is, prior to the Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain, no

system had been established to capture the varying forms of government service

systems in rural and urban areas of southern Nevada, the numerous context conditions

State of Nevada Socioecononlic Studies of Yucca Mountain Government Systems 70

that drive facility and service requirements, and the multiple dimensions involved in

service standards. . The development of such a system within the NWPO socioeconomic program is

constrained by several factors. Even if such an information system could be designed,

it is not likely that requisite data could be collected or maintained in a program with

the objectives and scope of the Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain. One

reason is that much important information either does not exist or is not readily

available or updated, particularly in rural areas and often in urban areas. The

development and systematization of such resources involves a multi-year, agency-by-

agency effort that should be sponsored directly by local jurisdictions rather than state

agencies, whose focus is on other dimensions of repository impact.

Government systems could absorb standard repository effects in a manner similar to

the way they absorb the impacts associated with other major projects or economic

changes-with significant difficulty in some functions and geographies, with relative

ease in others, depending on capacity and available resources. The difficulties often

relate to service area deficiencies caused by rapid growth and change, and/or rapid

change in the expectations and mandates for government services.

Stigma effects, depending on their scale and character, could have wrenching effects

on Nevada's state and local government systems. Changes in the economic base (e.g.,

visitor-gaming), service population (e.g., residential and nonresidential land use and

income), or population distribution could have significant effects on government

facility and service systems, and even on the institutional arrangements for delivery of

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Governnzent Systems 71

public facilities and services. Government systems that depend on visitor-generated

revenues and are geared for growth could find it particularly difficult to adapt to

declining revenues, or even the potential for declining revenues associated with stigma

effects. (Most state and local government systems in southern Nevada depend, to

some degree, on visitor-generated revenues, and most are geared to accommodate to

and catch up with growth; these governments are not set up for stasis or decline.)

Any impact analysis on government systems must consider context conditions in

southern Nevada communities. These communities are under resource constraints and

have struggled, with varying success, to respond to more than a decade of rapid

changes that include changes in service populations and service expectations.

Both standard and stigma effects of the repository project have broad effects on local

government systems and requirements. Standard effects are relatively small and

immediate, but stigma effects could be potentially large (although their scope and

timing are not yet fully defined). Distributional issues are critical for both effects

because their implication for various government entities and service areas with

widely varying government service systems and capacities is extensive.

Impact assessment on general government systems must address both standard and

stigma effects. Despite differences in magnitude and time, the information systems

requirements appear similar for both effects. This similarity means the general

government systems should include all major government functions; draw on existing

information resources for government entities and agencies as presently organized;

distinguish types, levels, and unit costs for services and for service populations-to


reflect changes in government organization and responsibility; and synthesize the

above items to enable assessment to focus on specific impacted service areas on the

one hand and area-wide systems on the other. This synthesis will make present

jurisdictional boundaries and government systems organization optional and not the

only or primary frame of reference for impact assessment.

A systems approach to the description of local government systems has important

applications in monitoring current conditions, assessing current and recent impacts,

and preparing short-term baseline and impact projections. Mid- or long-term

projections produced by such systems have limited predictive reliability due to the

responsive adaptability of most government systems. Nevertheless, such systems,

particularly feedback linkages from government revenues and finances, have value as

a tool for systematically exploring the types and effectiveness of adaptations required

in the mid- or long-term and the stress these adaptations may place on government

institutions.


Government systems investigations in the Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain

were discontinued in 1989 due to lack of funds. These studies explored many of the relevant

topics, tools, resources, and geographies, but fell well short of the overall objective to

establish integrated monitoring and projection-assessment systems, maintained and applied to

assess repository-related government systems impacts in jurisdictions, sub-jurisdiction service

areas and communities, and cross-jurisdiction corridors or impact areas. Since 1989 Nye

County, with independent funding from the NWF, has established monitoring and projection-


assessment systems appropriate to the information resources and service systems of rural

Nevada government. In 1989 the Clark County program also established monitoring systems

appropriate to the information resources and service characteristics of urban general

governments. Other affected entities have investigated selected systems but have not pursued

a systems approach for all major government functions. The Nye and Clark county efforts, in

particular, have built on the NWPO government systems studies, and future work in the

NWPO program should, in turn, build on their local efforts. Future government systems

efforts in the NWPO program must be reconsidered in the light of current circumstance

(e.g., anticipated repository program activity and milestones, coordination with capabilities

under development in affected local entities, and current NWPO priorities among the several

aspects of a fully-integrated socioeconomic monitoring and projection system). Useful areas

for future work include the following:

An information system that would satisfy the criteria described above is large,

complex, and difficult to maintain in a context in which repository impact assessment,

rather than other ongoing or emerging government responsibilities, is the major

motivation and funding resource, especially when the motivation for such systems is a

state agency rather than a local government. If such systems can be devised and

developed in local programs, the results can be synthesized for application in state-

sponsored assessments.

The repository project has specific function effects on particular local facility and

service systems (e. g., emergency management, transportation of nuclear wastes).

Special investigations are required to describe the effects and the appropriate


responses by local and state government. These results, in turn, should be evaluated

for their impacts on the organization, character, and cost of local government-even

assuming the costs are fully mitigated by the NWF.

Affected local government units receive separate funding from the NWF to conduct

research relative to the repository program. Coordination of state and local activities

is important. The state should assist in developing a coordinated system to address

both state and local repository effects.

The state-level studies should continue development of information on state-level

government agencies and systems and should address both standard and stigma effects

of the repository.

Finally, special attention should focus on developing expertise and providing a system

to monitor project-related effects.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Government Systems 75

5.0 Fiscal by James Williams, Planning Information Corporation

The demographic, employment, spending, and property taxes of the repository would

produce important fiscal impacts for local governments, increasing demands for public

services and changing the revenue base. While these standard effects of the repository would

be concentrated on the local resident population and land uses, stigma effects could influence

the future visitor-tourist economy of the entire state. The fiscal effects, therefore, could be

dramatically different depending on the influence of the standard and stigma effects. The

fiscal research was designed to accommodate sufficiently detailed information on the state

and local financial structure to simulate future public costs and revenues under a variety of

baseline and with-repository scenarios, and over the several time scales implied by repository

site characterization, development, and operation.

The fiscal effects of the repository are a monetary proxy for many of its quantifiable

impacts. Nevada's state and local fiscal structure (see Figure 5.1) reflects the social and

political beliefs of the state's residents, and the economic and demographic conditions within

the state. Populations will change locally and statewide; economic conditions will vary

according to business cycles and structural changes in state and local economies; and voters'

attitudes will directly or indirectly dictate fiscal policies. These changes affect the fiscal

condition of the state and each community within the state. The repository program

constitutes one more set of perturbations to the economic, governmental, and social systems

of the state-and all have potential consequences for governmental finance. It is important,

therefore, for monitoring and assessment systems to simulate the pathways by which the

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Fiscal 76

Government revenues, finances

Gaming revenues Sales and excise taxes

e Fuel taxes e Property taxes

Mining proceeds

Figure 5.1 Nevada's revenue structure is dominated by state allocated resources drawing on sectors vulnerable to repository effects.

repository could have consequences for the public finances of the state and its communities.

5.1 Objectives

The fiscal research goal is to describe Nevada's state-local revenue structure in a way

that is useful and appropriate for tracing the consequences of the repository program

(described in terms of standard, transportation, or stigma effects) for fiscal conditions in the

state and its communities. It is necessary to make the appropriate distinctions between the

Nevada economy, the associated revenue base, the revenues generated, and the distribution

of revenues to general and special funds of state, county, municipal, and special district

levels and/or agencies.

More specifically, the objectives of the fiscal studies are:

To identify and analytically review information on Nevada's state-local revenue

structure, including state and local information on the revenue base for various

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Fiscal . 77

resources, the revenues generated (and collected) under current law, and the revenues

distributed to state and local funds supporting government systems and services.

To conduct analyses to establish linkages among Nevada's economy, its revenue base,

the revenues generated, and the revenues distributed to general and special funds in

state and local government, and account for the distribution of Nevada's state-local

revenue base and the distribution of revenue receipts under current law.

To develop computerized models combining the information resources and analysis

linkages that permit systematic analysis of the implications of economic futures for the

scale and distribution of future revenues. The modeling must also permit analysis of

biannual legislated changes in the revenue base, the tax and fee structure, and/or

distribution formulas.

To monitor changes in Nevada's revenue base, revenues generated and distributed,

and associated and explanatory changes in the state's economy and its state-local

revenue structure.

To apply monitoring data to update and refine the model linkages and calibration.

To use the calibrated models to trace the consequences of the repository program for

Nevada's state-local revenue structure (i.e., revenue base, revenues generated and

distributed).


5.2 Methods

The methods used in the fiscal studies were:

Identification, collection, and review of existing state and local information resources

describing Nevada's state and local revenue bases, the tax and fee structure, revenues

collected, and revenues distributed to major state and local revenue funds.

Development of model systems for each major state or local revenue resource in

Nevada. Statistical (linear regression analysis) and simulation approaches were

undertaken, with the most extensive work focusing on a simulation of Nevada's state-

local revenue structure. The linkages between an economic future (as described in a

Regional Economics Model, Inc. projection; see section 3.2) and the revenue base are

preliminary working models subject to testing and refinement. The linkages between

the revenue base and revenues generated reflect Nevada law and Department of

Revenue administration procedures. l7 The linkages between revenues generated and

distributed are generally straightforward, but many require consistent economic-

demographic projections at state and local levels.

Application of the Nevada state-local revenue model to estimate the revenue

implications of economic futures for the state and for southern Nevada counties and

communities.

17Some administrative procedures (e.g., those regarding Supplemental CityICounty Relief Tax [SCCRT]) are intricate and are summarized for application in a multi-year projection system.


Development of linkages between revenue and expenditure projection analyses to

force expenditures to conform to revenues available in particular funds. These

linkages are necessary to assess the expenditure implications of a revenue constraint.

To conduct systematic internal and external review of the revenue projections or

projection procedures, and convert database and model components into an easily

managed and administered monitoring and projection system for Nevada's state-local

revenue structure.


The documents produced under the fiscal tasks include descriptions of expenditure and

revenue systems for local governments, and preliminary projections of fiscal conditions under

baseline and repository impact scenarios. The reports describe efforts to develop tools for

tracing the expenditure and revenue consequences of alternative economic and demographic

futures.

Mountain West. (1986). Summary Dra?: Grants Equal to Tmes, Nevada Site: Yucca

Mountain High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository. MRDB: FS0001.

Real Estate Research Corp (1988). Pre1imin.ai-y Yucca Mountain Valuation Report.

The first document is a preliminary review of the appraisal issues and information

requirements for implementing the Grants Equal to Taxes (GETT) provisions of NWPA. The

second document explores the rationale for appraisal of Yucca Mountain under the GETT

provisions of the NWPA and develops a preliminary valuation reflecting DOE activity

through 1986. Nye County recently had Robert L. Foreman & Associates prepare an updated

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountuin Fiscal 80

valuation of the Yucca Mountain site. This appraisal was based on an earlier Real Estate

Research Corporation (RERC) study, which used a database of DOEIOCRWM financial

information and input from officials responsible for centralized assessment in the State of

Nevada. DOE has also developed information relevant to assessing development at the Yucca

Mountain site. Site appraisal is an unresolved issue and the problem is now in litigation

between the State of Nevada and the federal government.

Planning Information Corporation. (1 987). Service and Budget Factors: Technical

Memorandum. MRDB: FS0002.

This document provides an early indication of the expenditure and revenue projection

methods to apply in Nye and Lincoln counties, the two rural counties expected to be most

directly affected by the repository. Selected for particular emphasis were the Nye County

general fund; the towns of Amargosa Valley, Beatty, Pahrump, and Tonopah; the Nye and

Lincoln county school districts; Lincoln County emergency services; and the City of Caliente

(Lincoln County) emergency services.

Planning Information Corporation. (1988). Nevada Local Government Revenues Analysis.

MRDB: FS0004.

Planning Information Corporation. (1988). Nevada State Revenue Analysis. June 1988.

MRDB: FS0003.

These documents describe the revenue structure for state and local government in

Nevada. Because Nevada's revenue system emphasizes state regulation of and control over

local government resources, the state revenue structure is relevant to both state and local


fiscal conditions. Regression analysis was used to establish relationships between economic

variables and major revenue resources.

Planning Information Corporation. (1989). Summary of Background Fiscal Data and Analysis

for the Nevada Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Study to Date. NWPO-SE-017-89.

MRDB: FS0007.

This report provides a set of detailed expenditure and revenue outputs (based on

simulation models described in section 5.2) that were summarized in An Interim Report on

the State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies (SE0006). The report includes tables showing

each jurisdiction's expenditures by function and revenues by source; jurisdictions covered

include Clark, Lincoln, and Nye counties; Clark, Lincoln, and Nye County school districts;

the Clark County cities of Henderson, Las Vegas, and North Las Vegas; the City of Caliente

and all Lincoln County towns; and the Nye County towns of Amargosa Valley, Beatty,

Pahrump, and Tonopah .

Planning Information Corporation. (1989). A Modeling System to Assess the Fiscal Impacts of

Residential & Nonresidential Development in North Las Vegas. MRDB: FS0008.

In prior fiscal modeling tasks, the emphasis was on generic economic and

demographic effects on local government finances. This report provides the preliminary

design for a fiscal model that begins with a community's development potential and

prospects, and then portrays development effects on the community's specific capital and

operating systems. As such, this approach forms a more site-specific modeling technique for


the urban community closest to the proposed repository site. This concept was reworked and

further enhanced by the later application of the PEDaL1' system in North Las Vegas.

Planning Information Corporation. (1989). Visitor-Related Economic and Revenue Impacts

Model. MRDB: FS0010.

This report isolates the visitor and gaming economy as a sector that would be

particularly vulnerable to risk- and image-related repository stigma effects. Because of the

significance of revenues related to conventioneers and visitors (both short-term and snowbird

visitors) to Nevada's economic and fiscal conditions, a special approach to modeling

economic and fiscal effects of visitor and gaming activities was developed. The design and

preliminary output of the Remulator (REMI Emulator) is described in this report.

5.4 Major Findings

Nevada collects significant revenues from nonresidents via various gaming, sales,

cigarette and liquor, and motor fuels taxes. Thus, a repository effect that impacts one

or more of these revenue bases (e.g., a stigma effect on visitor-gaming) could have

wrenching effects at all governmental levels throughout the state.

18The Population, Economic, Demographic and Land Use information system provides integrated economic, demographic, and land use information for small-area socioeconomic and fiscal estimation in urban areas. The PEDaL process attaches socioeconomic information (household population estimates, demographic characteristics, employment estimates, utility demand characteristics, etc.) to tax assessor parcels, which are located on electronic versions of maps via geographic information system (GIs) procedures. Once the enhanced parcel records are geolocated, they can be recombined into any relevant geography (particularly service areas) using standard GIs techniques. To project future government activities, one may compare the socioeconomic estimates to service characteristics (personnel, facilities, budgets, etc.) and thereby produce locally sensitive projection factors.


Nevada's revenue structure is dominated by state-collected andlor state-distributed

revenues. As a result, analysis and projection of revenues on an entity-by-entity basis

has inherent limitations in Nevada, and reliable projections at the entity level must

include a statewide dimension.

Different economic activities in Nevada have widely diverse revenue-cost implications

for municipal, county, and state government (see Figure 5.2). Casino enterprises, for

example, generally have positive impacts on government revenues versus costs. Due

to the net mine proceeds tax, mining enterprises have positive impacts-if the mine is

productive over the long term. Federal government enterprises generate sales and use

Figure 5.2 Most revenues come from visitor, gaming, and mining activity. Revenues from other activities (including federal) do not cover costs. Resident-generated revenues are a small portion of total, but regressive. Revenues are not necessarily distributed where and when needed.

GETTIPETT revenues b


E Revenue base

Revenues generated

Revenue

Municipal

Special district

tax revenues as well as payments in lieu of taxes, but generally these do not cover

costs.

The net, negative fiscal bias, which apply to particular basic industries in the state,

are offset somewhat by the average earnings of employees, which are significantly

higher among professional, technical, and crafts employees at DOE enterprises (NTS,

Yucca Mountain) than among service employees at casinos and other visitor-oriented

enterprises, and much more stable than most mining employment. However, the

revenue-cost effects of higher earnings are in turn offset by the facts that the revenues

levied from local residents generally do not cover costs (since a large portion of the

revenue base is collected from nonresidents), and that the revenues levied from

residents are not progressive. They rely heavily on sales and excise taxes, with no

state or local income taxes.

Nevada does not have a reliable tool for tracing the revenue consequences of

alternative economic futures beyond the upcoming one or two year budget cycle. A

major revenue study undertaken in 1989-1990 focused on other revenue issues and did

not establish such a tool.'9

Without such a tool, it is difficult to trace the revenue consequences of changes in

particular sectors potentially affected by the repository project (e.g., visitor-gaming,

retirement migration, convention, federal service contractors, construction) for various

revenue funds at state, county, and municipal levels. Given the existing capabilities, it

'The Urban Institute and Price Waterhouse, A Study of the Fiscal AfSa.irs ofstate and Local Government in Nevada, Carson City, NV: November 18, 1988.


is also difficult to calculate the net effects of revenues generated directly by an

economic activity and those generated by employee spending.


Revenue and fiscal investigations in the Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Study

developed a monitoring and projection system for tracing the revenue consequences of

alternative economic futures in the state and affected counties. But this system was not

maintained or refined through ongoing updates, testing, and application because these studies

were discontinued in 1989 due to study team funding reductions. Useful areas for future

work include:

Updating the database and simulation models for key state-local revenue resources to

reflect changes in the 1989 and 1991 legislative sessions, as well as changes resulting

from the upcoming 1993 legislative session. The model should be converted for use as

an efficiently managed monitoring system.

Testing the updated and converted system in applications to project the consequences

of statewide economic futures for state and local revenue funds (aggregated for all

counties). Particular attention should be focused on future conditions in economic

sectors vulnerable to repository stigma effects.

Testing the updated and converted system in applications to project the consequences

of specific county economic futures for state and local (county-specific) revenue

funds. Again, particular attention should be given to futures in economic sectors

vulnerable to repository stigma effects.


6.0 State Agencies, State Government, and Intergovernmental Relations by Alvin Mushkatel, Arizona State University

The roles of federal, state, and local governments, in the case of the Yucca Mountain

repository project, are not cooperative and well defined for several reasons. First, the

HLNW program is the result of special legislation by Congress with the Nuclear Waste

Policy Act of 1982 (NWPA), legislation subject to a major mid-course revision with the 1987

Nuclear Waste Policy Act Amendments (NWPAA). Congress continues oversight through its

annual appropriations and with additional legislation, such as the recent passage of the

National Energy Bill (1992).

Second, the federal legislation mandated a certain role for the host state government

and authorized potential functions for key state leaders such as the governor and the

legislature. The NWPAA of 1987 made major adjustments in this state role by providing

specifically for local governments, especially "affected counties, " who were then

independently funded from the NWF to support their participation. In addition, DOE initiated

independent funding for units of the University of Nevada (at Reno, Las Vegas, and through

the Desert Research Institute) that Congress funded by a separate line item in the repository

budget.

Third, the repository project is extremely controversial in Nevada, and it has

influenced campaigns for public office and the election of public officials at all levels. The

repository project has influenced local politics as well, in one case forcing the resignation of

the Clark County lobbyist to Congress in Washington, DC. Nevada political consultants,

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain State Agencies, State Government,

and Intergovernmental Relations 87

hired by the nuclear industry, have been active in promoting the repository in the news and

mass media, and the American Nuclear Energy Council has funded a massive advertising

campaign to promote the repository project. Others have joined with state forces to oppose

the repository project at Yucca Mountain. The contentious nature of the repository as a

public issue has the power to direct the response of state and local officials and restrict their

actions when compared to other, more standard, cases of project development.

Fourth, the repository duties make differential demands on state and local

governments and government agencies. In some cases these demands are entirely new and

require preparations for new duties or even new agencies. For example, the NWPA of 1982

directly caused the creation of the Agency for Nuclear ProjectsfNevada Waste Project Office.

This agency was not mandated by the federal legislation but was the direct result of the

state's attempts to deal with the repository project.

Finally, the scope of the potential impacts from the repository project could

significantly affect state government programs in many important ways. For example, if

transportation routes are not carefully selected and studied, there could be a major impact on

emergency management agencies.

6.1 Objectives

The objectives of these studies were first developed under the 1982 NWPA and

adjusted with the 1987 Amendments and subsequent Congressional actions. The NWPA

mandates designated the host state as the principal agency to respond to the repository

program, to provide evaluations and oversight of DOE work, and ultimately to approve or


and Intergovernmental Relations . 88

disapprove of the project subject only to Congressional override in the case of disapproval.

The state was also authorized to determine and apply for mitigation payments and to engage

in negotiations for agreements with the federal government. Consequently, the following

objectives were formulated by the socioeconomic study team:

To examine the repository program and determine which state agencies might be

impacted by the NWPA mandates or by expansion of their duties as defined by other

federal and state laws. The agencies with potentially significant impacts would then be

studied to obtain their evaluation of existing or potential impacts.

To study how state agencies might be affected by standard or stigma effects of the

repository, focussing on changes to the economic, demographic, fiscal, or public

service conditions within Nevada and its local jurisdictions.

To design a method for estimating the costs to state agencies of responding to

mandate and impact-driven costs. This would allow claims for mitigation.

To study the effect of the repository program on intergovernmental relations (IGR)

between the state and federal governments, between state agencies, between the state

and local governments, and between local governments and the federal government.

6.2 Methods

Although seldom applied to socioeconomic impact assessment, the methods used to

study the potential impacts on state government and intergovernmental relations were

standard for political scientists or policy analysts doing research in these areas. The study

team:



Examined the legislation, regulations, and description of state agencies. This was

followed by a selection and prioritization of agencies to study and officials to

interview. Secondary data (government documents and information supplied by the

state agencies) was obtained and analyzed.

Interviewed agency employees and officials and appointed and elected government

officials at the state and local levels. Key informants who were not public employees

or officials but who had an interest in public policy on the repository issues were also

interviewed.


The following reports were prepared to begin a descriptive and analytical study of the

potential intergovernmental impacts caused by the Yucca Mountain repository project. An

additional study of relationships between Native Americans and state and local governments

is annotated in chapter 10 (Rusco, E., 1991, MRDB #NA0022) and may be of interest.

Mushkatel, A. and G. Atkinson. (1987). Intergovernmental Relations and State-Level Cost

Analysis (Appendix A. 6.0) in First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report. MRDB:

IGOOO 1.

This report provides the methodology for estimating the fiscal and political costs to

the state resulting from the repository. The report describes the mandate and economic-

demographic methodologies, and how they are integrated to estimate the fiscal costs from the

project. After outlining the conceptual approach and methodologies, several state agencies are

analyzed, and the significant costs already incurred are examined. In addition, future costs to

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Y~lcca Mountain State Agencies, State Government,

and lntergovernrnental Relations 90

state agencies are detailed and projected for several agencies. State agencies examined

included the Division of Environmental Protection, Division of Emergency Management,

Radiological Health Section, Nevada Department of Transportation, Division of Mental

HealthIMental Retardation, and Division of Mental Hygiene. In addition, cost estimates using

the economic-demographic approach combined with the mandate driven methodology were

provided for Nye, Lincoln, and Clark counties as part of a demonstration model for tracking

incurred costs. Finally, the report provides an overview of local relations in Clark County

based on interview data with public officials.

Atkinson, G. (1988). Department of Education: State Level Economic-Demographic and

Fiscal Costs. MRDB: IG0005.

Atkinson, G. (1988). The Department of Taxation: State Level Economic-Demographic and

Fiscal Costs. MRDB: IG0002.

Atkinson, G. (1988). Employment Security Department: State-Level Economic-Demographic

and Fiscal Costs. MRDB: IG0004.

Mushkatel, A. (1988). Nevada Division of Emergency Management: NWPA and Federal

Mandate Demands and State Costs. MRDB: IG0007.

Mushkatel, A. (1988). State Level-Cost Analysis and In.tergovernmenta1 Relations: The

Department of Motor Vehicles a,nd Public Safety. MRDB: IG0008.

Mushkatel, A. (1988). State Level-Cost Analysis and Intergovernmental Relations: The

Nevada Public Service Commission. MRDB: IG0003.


and Inrergovernmental Relations 91

Mountain West. (1989). Nevada Department of Human Resources: State Agencies Update.

MRDB: IGOO 12.

These reports examine the organizational structure and functions of key Nevada state

agencies. They analyze the revenue collection and expenditure systems and patterns. The

potential effects of economic-demographic changes caused by the repository is estimated for

each department. The implications of the mandate-driven responsibilities from federal and

state laws and regulations pertaining to the repository were examined and evaluated.

Mushkatel, A. (1989). State Agencies Update: Nevada Division of Emergency Management.

MRDB: IGOO 1 1.

This report updates the information collected in 1987 for the Division of Emergency

Management (DEM), which had experienced significant changes that affected earlier cost

projections. The focus of the report is the new organizational structure of the DEM, along

with a recently completed telecommunication study. The new projected costs are far higher

than those provided in the 1987 report.

Titus, A. (1987). "Political Organization Response. " In Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic

Project, First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report, Appendix A. 5.3. MRDB:

SC0002.

Herzik, E., and A. Mushkatel. (1988). Urban Area Intergovernmental Studies Report.

MRDB: IG0006.

These reports examine the organization and function of the local governments in the

Las Vegas Valley (Clark County, Las Vegas, Henderson, and North Las Vegas). Past



intergovernmental relations are described, and, relying on interview data from stakeholders

in the public and private sector, projections of repository-siting impacts on intergovernmental

relations in the Las Vegas Valley are provided. Several existing intergovernmental impacts

are described. The effect on transportation is a major concern to stakeholder groups.

Herzik, E., and A. Mushkatel. (1989). Intergovernmental Relations: A View from the Federal

Agencies. MRDB: IG00 10.

This report documents the views of federal DOE personnel on relations between the

DOE and state and local governments. The perception of worsening relations with the state is

shared by most interviewees. The DOE personnel feel that local relationships remain strong

and supportive.

6.4 Major Findings

The research on state agencies using the mandate-driven approach resulted in a variety of

important findings:

There was a serious deterioration of the federal-state relationship due to the Yucca

Mountain project even prior to the NWPAA of 1987 and this trend has continued.

This condition is recognized by both state and federal officials interviewed.

The passage of the 1987 NWPAA increased feelings of distrust toward the federal

government, at least on the part of state actors.

Many state agencies did not believe they were adequately prepared for the presence of

a HLNW repository. Even during the siting stages, many agencies believed they had

insufficient personnel and resources to meet demands placed on their agency. Several

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountuin State Agencies, State Government,


state agencies that had prepared skeletal documents outlining their preferred policies

and systems if the repository was sited, indicated that the repository would overwhelm

their abilities and resources. In particular, the Division of Emergency Management,

Nevada Department of Transportation, Department of Motor Vehicles, Nevada

Highway Patrol, and Conservation and Natural Resources would be severely

impacted. These agencies, as well as the Radiological Health section of the

Department of Human Resources, would also require additional training, equipment,

and personnel. Finally, the Nevada Department of Transportation and the Department

of Motor Vehicles would experience major negative impacts because of transportation-

related problems.

Changes in intergovernmental relations, in particular those between the state and

DOE, caused many state agencies to increase activities related to the repository.

Several state agencies devoted significant personnel and staff time to repository-

related activities. For example, the Division of Emergency Management, Nevada

Highway Patrol, Nevada Department of Transportation, and Public Service

Commission all spent significant resources, without reimbursement, on repository-

related activities.

The state agencies realized they must resolve ambiguities in their organizational

responsibilities. While Nevada's fragmented emergency management system sufficed

for years, the agencies agreed that the presence of a repository would demand not

only greater emergency management response capacity, but also clearer lines of

responsibility. Indeed, the repository issue was an underlying factor in efforts by the



state legislature in 1989 to clarify emergency management functions for transportation

incidents involving hazardous materials. The increasing importance of a state

emergency communication system, and determining which agency would be

responsible for it, was partially stimulated by the repository issue. This has been a

divisive issue; state agencies and commissions recognize the importance of resolving

it but have been unable to reach agreement.

Rather surprisingly, over half of the appointed officials interviewed indicated they

were dedicating more than thirty percent of their time to repository-related issues.

Given the fact that these interviews were carried out from late 1987 to mid-1988, it

seems likely that even more time may be demanded as the repository becomes an

even more salient issue.

State agencies were involved in many activities aimed at estimating the likely impacts

resulting from the potential siting of the repository. They were also engaged in

determining specifically how siting the repository in Nevada would affect their

missions, activities, and responsibilities.

Local officials do not trust DOE. The 1988 interviews found that none of the local

governmental officials believed DOE could be trusted to keep its promises to state or

local governments (see chapters 11 and 15).

According to the 1988 interviews, local officials believed the federal government

eventually will prevail and the repository will be sited in Nevada. They felt this

placed them in a difficult position because the public adamantly opposed the siting.

This situation meant that local officials would have little room to maneuver in dealing

State Agencies, State Government, State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain and Intergovernnlental Relations 95

with the repository program. Added to the lack of trust in DOE, this situation implies

that acceptance of the repository program on the part of local officials is not likely.

Transportation risks and impacts are a major concern. The ability to respond to

transportation impacts, the potential for transportation to become a disruptive issue,

and the strain that transportation concerns would place on cooperation between

officials and agencies were all cited as potential problems.

Both Clark County and Las Vegas officials expressed concern that stigma effects

would adversely impact their gaming and tourism industries. These officials were

deeply concerned that local capacity was insufficient to deal effectively with stigma

impacts.

Funding constraints have limited the intergovernmental and public service studies.

The mandate research on local governments showed some impacts by mid-1987, but

subsequent funding for these studies was not allocated and there are no results for the

past 5 years.

There is evidence of an increasing split between some urban and rural jurisdictions

regarding costs and benefits accruing from the repository project.

Formal institutional arrangements for interaction among the jurisdictions are largely

lacking, and governmental entities relied heavily on informal mechanisms for conflict

resolution.

The examination of more than 20 state agencies and interviews with public officials,

Native Americans (see chapter lo), and stakeholder group members, document the



importance of using both mandate-driven and economic-demographic effects to

estimate the potential for intergovernmental and public service impacts.


The actual and potential impacts on the State of Nevada agencies, services, and

intergovernmental relations are significant and serious. The study team has developed

theories and methods to address mandate-driven and economic-demographic impacts and to

track the contentious and divisive public policy issue the repository has become.

Congressional reductions in the resources allocated to the state has resulted in serious

underfunding of studies in this area. We recommend the following:

Intergovernmental relations and state level impacts resulting from the repository

project should be given a high priority for funding when and if such resources

become available.

State and local governments should cooperate to preserve information and data on

public services and facility impacts of the repository that cross jurisdictional lines and

affect intergovernmental relations.

Secondary data files (e.g., newspaper clippings) on state services and

intergovernmental relations should be established and maintained.

Systematic interviews with state and local officials and updates on state agencies

should be scheduled, even if such activities are limited and spread over a long time.

This task, combined with the records described above, will assist researchers



reconstructing the impacts in this area in the future when more adequate funding

allows study to resume.

A tracking system to determine the needs and demands of each agency should be put

into place to aid in monitoring impacts.

The extreme importance of emergency management issues should be emphasized and

additional studies should be launched to determine the continuing impacts of the

program on state and local agencies with emergency management responsibilities.



7.0 National, Regional, and Nevada State Surveys by James Flynn, Decision Research and C. K. Mertz, Decision Research

A high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) repository is a facility that no state wants to host

and that most states have resisted vigorously in the past. The public's adverse response to a

repository facility raises important questions about how these attitudes and opinions might

impact Nevada and its communities. A number of surveys were completed to examine the

potential impacts of public responses and behaviors.

Nationwide public perceptions of Nevada, Las Vegas, Reno, and other communities

are important because the state's economy is based on visitors, tourists, conventions, job and

elderly immigration, and the investments of nonresidents. The socioeconomic study team

conducted several national surveys to collect data on the attitudes, opinions, and possible

behaviors of the American public.

Because nearby states and cities have even greater social, economic, and political

interactions with Nevada, the study team also conducted surveys in southern California and

Phoenix, Arizona. These studies were in combination with other studies on perceptions of

risk, stigma, and effects that can be attributed to adverse images generated by the repository.

Finally, the study team designed and conducted surveys at the state level to measure

the attitudes and opinions of Nevadans. These surveys addressed the issues covered in the

national and regional surveys, and also asked Nevada residents about policy options available

to state officials and leaders. In some cases, these statewide surveys addressed significant

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain National, Regional, and Nevada State Surveys 8 99

repository issues and concerns as they emerged (e.g., the American Nuclear Energy Council

advertising campaign to promote the repository on behalf of the nuclear industry).

7.1 Objectives

The survey research undertaken by the Yucca Mountain socioeconomic study team

was designed to collect systematic and reliable information on several populations

whose attitudes, opinions, and behaviors are vital to estimating the potential impacts

of the repository program.

This data collection was used to test theories and hypotheses about public response to

a repository; to obtain baseline and monitoring information on attitudes and opinions;

to increase social science understanding of how a repository might impact the State of

Nevada; and to provide information to Nevada officials for use in evaluating the

repository and formulating public policies about the siting effort.

The state surveys were designed to collect information on how residents viewed the

potential risks, costs, and benefits of the repository program; their support or

opposition to the Yucca Mountain project; attitudes toward public policies; trust in

public officials and institutions; and potential trade-offs including economic cost-

benefit evaluations.

The national and regional surveys addressed the potential for impacts resulting from

the attitudes, opinions, and potential behaviors of people who reside outside Nevada.

The social and economic activities of Nevada are closely connected with their

southwestern neighbors, especially the cities and counties in southern California. The

populations of southern California and Phoenix, Arizona provide much of the tourism,

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Moiintain National, Regional, and Nevada State Surveys 100

migration, and business investment essential to Nevada and the Las Vegas

metropolitan area. Regional surveys were undertaken in Phoenix and southern

California to measure how those important populations evaluated the Yucca Mountain

project, and to determine their attitudes and opinions about a repository in Nevada.

These data are essential to estimating the potential impacts on the Nevada economy

and subsequently on the socioeconomic well-being of the state.

7.2 Methods

Instrument design was based on the extensive experience of the study team members,

augmented by the results of experimental studies (e.g., with university students),

focus group sessions, and a detailed examination of the social science literature as

well as a careful study of results from other survey and polling efforts.

The national, regional (Phoenix and southern California), and the State of Nevada

surveys were conducted by telephone. Professional survey research firms were

contracted to do the actual interviews, with study team members serving as observers

to the training and supervision of the actual data collection work. Random samples of

telephone numbers for the target populations were provided by Survey Sampling, Inc.

of Fairfield, Connecticut. Technical reviews of the 1987 surveys resulted in some

concerns about the response rates and documentation of survey procedures. The

surveys that followed this first effort were more closely audited and exacting

standards for response rates, sample management, and database documentation were

implemented.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Molinruin National, Regional, and Nevada State Surveys . 101


Table 7.1 identifies the survey research completed by the Yucca Mountain

socioeconomic study team between 1987 and 1992. These survey descriptions provide

references to the chapters where these surveys are discussed; many surveys have their

primary annotation in this chapter, but others are discussed in the context of the studies of

rural communities, the Las Vegas urban area, and so forth.

Desvousges, W., J. Frey, H. Kunreuther, R. Kasperson, P. Slovic, and D. Pijawka. (1986).

Revised Focus Group Plan. MRDB: RP0007.

Desvousges, W., R. Dunford, J. Frey, J., H. Kunreuther, R. Kasperson, and P. Slovic.

(1987). Focus Group Findings and Implications for Surveys. MRDB: RP0006.

Desvousges, W., R. Dunford, J. Frey, H. Kunreuther, R. Kasperson, and P. Slovic. (1987).

Integrated Survey Plan. MRDB: RP0009.

Kunreuther, H., P. Slovic, J. Nigg, and W. Desvousges. (1987). Final Report: Risk

Perception Telephone Survey. MRDB: RP0003.

Ericksen, E., and B. Bunkle. (1988). Evaluation of Two Surveys Concerning the Risks of

High-Level Nuclear Waste Repositories. MRDB: RP00 1 8.

Ericksen, E. (1988). Power Calculation for Estimates under Four Scenarios in Las Vegas

Survey. MRDB: RP0019.

The design of these two surveys (Nevada and the nation as a whole) began in 1986

and the telephone interviews were conducted in March, 1987. The surveys provide data on

responses to a potential HLNW repository including risk awareness of a repository,

perceived risks, effects on intended behavior including tourism, migration, investment

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain National, Regional, and Nevada State Surveys . 102

Table 7.1 Surveys Conducted by the Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Study Team, 1987- 1991

Survey CoverageIFocus Approach Availability

Risk To record characteristics of individuals (e.g., risk awareness, Nationwide telephone survey, sample size Reports were produced. Perception knowledge of a repository, etc.) that may influence risk 1,201 with a response rate of 35.1%. See chapters 8 and 14. Telephone perceptions; risks people perceive from the HLNW repository, Survey views or mindsets they form about the repository, changes in (National) behavior (changes in retirement decisions or industrial 1987 relocations) induced by the location of a repository; and

whether tax rebates would make a HLNW repository more acceptable to nearby residents.

Risk To record characteristics of individuals (e.g., risk awareness, Nevada telephone survey, sample size 797 plus Reports were produced. Perception knowledge of a repository, etc.) that may influence risk an over-sample of 100 in Lincoln County and See chapters 8 and 14. Telephone perceptions; risks people perceive from the HLNW repository, 99 in Nye County; collective response rate was Survey views or mindsets they form about the repository, changes in 25.6%. (Nevada) behavior (changes in retirement decisions or industrial 1987 relocations) induced by the location of a repository; and

whether tax rebates would make a HLNW repository more acceptable to nearby residents.

Urban Risk To determine resident ties to the community and southern In-person interviews held with 549 randomly Reports were produced. Perception Nevada, participation in community activities, personal and selected households in urban Clark County; See chapter 10. Survey (Las community satisfaction, political views, views toward science response rate was 73.5 %. Vegas and technology, views toward Yucca Mountain repository. Metropolitan Respondents also asked a series of questions (based on four risk Area) scenarios) to determine risk perceptions and behavior-economic 1988 and demographic questions were also included.


(Table continues)

National, Regional, and Nevada State Surveys . 103

Table 7- 1, continued.

Survey Approach Availability

Southern To record perceptions and attitudes regarding nuclear waste Selfcompletion questionnaire drop off-pickup; Reports were produced. Nevada Rural storage and risk issues. Social integration and satisfaction, total of 890 questionnaires were completed in See chapter 9. Surveys personal well-being, political attitudes and behavior, trust in Beatty, Amargosa Valley, Pahrump, and Indian 1988 government and science, attitudes and perceived risks associated Springs with a response rate of 80.8 %.

with a variety of nuclear and non-nuclear facilities and activities, attitudes about the proposed HLNW repository and basic demographic characteristics.

Goldfield The Goldfield Community Survey used the same questionnaire 123 questionnaires were completed in Goldfield See chapter 9. Community as the 1988 Southern Nevada Rural Surveys. in June 1989 with a response rate of 80.9%. Survey Utility records used for sampling frame. 1989

Tourist and To collect information about the relationship between people's Two telephone surveys were developed with A report was produced. Migration images of places and their choice of a vacation or retirement similar questions. The cities questionnaire See chapter 14. Images site; about images that Nevada and Las Vegas evoke and how asked respondents to provide images for Las Survey: Cities the repository will affect those images and, consequently, Vegas, San Diego, Denver, and Los Angeles. and States vacation and retirement plans. The state questionnaire elicited images for (Phoenix) Nevada, California, Colorado, and New 1988 Mexico. Approximately 800 interviews were

conducted (400 for each) in Phoenix.


(Table continues)

National, Regional, and Nevada State Surveys . 104

Table 7-1, continued.


Corporate To record factors important in the decision to locate, relocate, Telephone interview with 400 business people No separate report on the Decision- or expand a business, including images of four different cities involved in site selection decision-making. survey was prepared. Data Makers (Las Vegas, Denver, Phoenix, and Albuquerque) and the Respondents chosen from "Who's Who in and documentation were Survey proximity to noxious facilities (i.e., sanitary landfill, chemical Corporate Real Estate." provided to NWPO. Major 1988 manufacturing plant, nuclear waste repository, nuclear power findings were included in

plant). Slovic et al. (1989), "Perceived Risk, Stigma, and Potential Economic Impacts of a High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository in Nevada." See chapter 14.

Convention To determine whether a HLNW repository at Yucca Mountain There were two parts to the survey: (1) a Reports were produced. See Planner would diminish the willingness of meeting planners to schedule focus group interview with nine meeting chapter 14. Survey conventions, trade shows, and other meetings in Las Vegas. planners, (2) questionnaire survey of 153 1988 meeting planners who were known to have

selected Las Vegas for a meeting; subjects answered questions about the process by which Las Vegas was selected; then they responded to seven different Yucca Mountain scenarios.

NTS To describe the workforce at the Nevada Test Site, a 1.3 Employee million acre secured facility operated by the U.S. Department Questionnaire of Energy (DOE), located 65 miles northwest of Las Vegas and 1988 adjacent to the repository site. Questions addressed personal

and household demographics, ZIP code, place of residence, housing type and tenure, place of work at NTS, occupation, labor relations status, union membership, work schedule, length of NTS employment, pre-employment mobility, mobility plans, commuting characteristics, use of workweek residence, and satisfaction with community and work.

Representatives of the seven major M&O A report was produced. See contractors or agencies distributed chapter 4. questionnaires to every employee reporting to work on a selected day during the week of April 11. Contractors also provided counts of employees reporting to work. Response was 3,157 completed questionnaires, or 90% of employees reporting to work.


(Table continues)

National, Regional, and Nevada State Surveys 105

Table 7-1, continued.

Survey Coverage/Focus Approach Availability

PEPCON To record residents' behaviors during the emergency period Telephone survey of urban Clark County, 583 Reports were produced. See Survey following the explosion at the PEPCON rocket fuel plant, and interviews with a response rate of 71.7 %. chapter 10. 1988 to ascertain decisions families made to minimize risk (e.g.,

evacuation). Residents were asked to evaluate the effectiveness of the media and emergency organizations. Attitudes toward the HLNW repository and other industrial facilities were solicited.

Nevada State To determine residents' attitudes toward the proposed Nevada telephone survey with 906 respondents Reports were produced. See Survey repository, their evaluation of benefits and problems, the including over-samples conducted in Nye, chapter 8. 1989 fairness of the selection process, their images of a HLNW Esmeralda, and Lincoln counties; state response

repository and the distance they would be willing to live from a rate was 73.8 %. repository, and other types of industrial and energy facilities.

National To provide basic information on the images people have of Las Telephone survey with a states version and a Reports were produced. See Telephone Vegas and Nevada; to test the relationship between images and cities version. A total of 825 people were chapters 8 and 14. Survey stated behavior and to establish baseline image scores for Las interviewed (409 states version and 416 cities 1989 Vegas, Nevada, and the HLNW repository. Also solicited version); overall response rate was 76.9%.

attitudes toward various energy and industrial facilities, evaluation of associated benefits and problems, fairness of alternative waste disposal plans and perceptions of risks associated with operating a repository and transporting waste.

Southern Survey instrument was parallel to the 1989 National Telephone The sample was drawn from a fivecounty area Reports were produced. See California Survey. of southern California. The counties were: chapters 8 and 14. Telephone Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, Survey Orange, and San Diego. A total of 801 people 1989 were interviewed (401 state version, 400 cities

version); overall response rate was 77.0%.

(Table continues)


Table 7- 1, continued.


Phoenix Re- To resurvey respondents of the 1988 Phoenix Images Survey As in the 1988 survey, two versions were Reports were produced. See Test Survey and determine (1) stability or change of their images, and (2) used. There were a total of 260 respondents chapters 8 and 14. 1989 their behavior in terms of visitation during the period between for the states version and 129 for the cities

the original survey and the 1989 survey. version.

Survey of To collect data on Las Vegas and Nevada visitors that come to 600 interviews were conducted with members A report was produced. See Convention attend meetings of associations. Questions were asked to solicit of six associations that had held conventions in chapter 14. Attendees images of Las Vegas and other cities where conventions were Las Vegas. Decision held. Questions about the convention attendance decision Process process were also asked. 1989

Nevada State To record views on Yucca Mountain repository, trust of various Telephone interviews of 500 Nevada residents; A report was produced. See Telephone federal, state, and local government entities, and socioeconomic response rate was 48.1 %. chapter 8. Survey characteristics. Spring 1991

Nevada State To determine public evaluation of the Yucca Mountain Telephone interviews of 604 residents, 504 A report was produced. See Survey repository program. Also asked questions about the current plus an over-sample of 100 Clark County chapter 8. Fall 1991 advertising campaign by ANEC. residents; response rate was 52.3%.


decisions, evaluation of how a repository might change the well-being of affected residents,

and responses to possible compensation schemes. These surveys show strong aversions to a

HLNW repository, and the potential for adverse impacts to the state and communities

associated with such a facility.

Decision Research. (1988). Preliminary Findings: Tourism and Migration Imagery Survey.

MRDB: RP0012.

Slovic, P., M. Layman, N. Kraus, J. Chalmers, G. Gesell, and J. Flynn. (1989). Perceived

Risk, Stigma, and Potential Economic Impacts of a High-Level Nuclear Waste

Repository in Nevada. MRDB: RP0056.

The 1988 Phoenix Imagery survey and the 1989 Re-Test are discussed in chapter 13,

Risk Perception and Behavior.

Flynn, J., C.K. Mertz, C., and J. Toma. (1989). Preliminary Findings: 1989 Nevada State

Telephone Survey. NWPO-SE-025-89. MRDB: RP0080.

Flynn, J. (1990). Information from Three Surveys Fall, 1989. MRDB: RP0099.

Flynn J., P. Slovic, C.K. Mertz, and J. Toma. (1990). Evaluations of Yucca Mountain:

Survey Findings About the Attitudes, Opinions, and Evaluations of Nuclear Waste and

Yucca Mountain, Nevada. NWPO-SE-029-90. MRDB: RP0104.

These three surveys, conducted in the Fall, 1989, used parallel instruments to obtain

responses from a national sample, a sample of southern California residents, and a sample

from the Nevada population. Information was collected on imagery of places (states and

cities), intended behaviors such as tourism, migration, and business investments (see chapter


13) as well as trust in government activities in regard to the repository, acceptability of a

repository site, and evaluations of potential socioeconomic impacts from a repository

program. The Nevada survey also asked about support and opposition to the Yucca Mountain

project and to state policy on the federal program.

Flynn, J., C.K. Mertz, and P. Slovic. (1991). The 1991 Nevada State Telephone Survey: Key

Findings. NWPO-SE-036-9 1. MRDB: RP0120.

Flynn, J., C.K. Mertz, and P. Slovic. (1991). The Autumn 1991 Nevada State Telephone

Survey. MRDB: RP0127.

These two 1991 surveys monitored the opinions and attitudes of Nevada residents

about the Yucca Mountain project. Data were collected on perceptions of potential risks

posed, including the possibility of stigma impacts on the Nevada economy. Respondents were

asked to rate the trustworthiness of federal, state, and local governmental entities in dealing

with repository issues, and to express support or opposition for the project and for the public

policy options of the state government. The Autumn, 1991, survey also asked about

responses to, and evaluations of, the American Nuclear Energy Council advertising campaign

in support of Yucca Mountain initiated in October, 1991.


7.4 Major Findings

It is clear that the nation has not devised an effective strategy for addressing the

serious social, political, and economic responses and impacts that result from a national

repository program. The survey effort by the Yucca Mountain socioeconomic study team has

provided a unique set of databases for understanding the public response to the nation's

HLNW problems. The concerns expressed are most acute in Nevada, where the federal

government has identified a site it wants to study and develop as the nation's first permanent

repository. However, the perceptions of high risk from such a program are widely shared by

the public nationwide, and concerns with the issues of HLNW handling and transportation

will become increasingly salient national issues if the federal program moves forward toward

implementation. These surveys provide some insight into the nature of the issues and the

types and levels of concerns the public has about management of nuclear wastes.

National, regional, and Nevada respondents all perceive high risks associated with a

repository program and react negatively to the location of HLNW functions or storage

(see chapter 13).

These surveys document low levels of trust in the federal program, the opinion that

the federal program is unfair and inequitable, and that location of a repository site in

a state will stigmatize the state as a nuclear dump location.

Three quarters of the respondents to the 1989 National Survey said it was unfair for

one state to be asked to serve as the site for a repository for nuclear waste generated

by the other states.


Important data on images, risk perceptions, and trust in waste managers and the

federal program are linked to subsequent support or opposition to the repository by

Nevada respondents. These topics are discussed in more detail in chapter 13.

Nevadans are concerned that the repository would cause a loss of tourism, an

evaluation supported by respondents in the national and regional surveys.

About three-quarters of the Nevada State respondents oppose the Yucca Mountain

project in repeated surveys taken since 1987. They support strong state opposition to

the repository program and will not support Yucca Mountain even if this means

giving up potential economic benefits. The 1987 state survey found that even direct

cash payments would not induce respondents to support the repository.

The percentage of Nevada respondents who thought development of the repository at

Yucca Mountain is inevitable has declined from 89 percent in 1987 to less than 50

percent by 1991.

More than 90 percent of the Spring, 1991 Nevada respondents said that state residents

should have the final say on accepting (or not) the repository at Yucca Mountain.

Nevada residents feel strongly that they should have a decisive role in making

decisions about the repository project in their state, and they feel they have been

excluded from meaningful participation. They express the highest trust ratings (which

have increased between 1989 to 1991) for the governor and state officials that have

opposed the current program. The trust in federal government agencies and

institutions declined during this period.


Nevada residents distrusted the promotional advertising campaign by the American

Nuclear Energy Council in support of Yucca Mountain because they distrusted the

motives of the sponsors. More than half the residents said the advertisements did not

influence their position. For those who said the advertisements had some influence,

almost a third (32.1 %) said the presentations reduced their support while only 14.8

percent said the advertisements increased their support.

Female respondents to the national, regional, and Nevada State surveys rate the

repository risks as more likely than do male respondents. In the case of Nevada

residents, female respondents are more likely to oppose the repository project at

Yucca Mountain than are male respondents.


The program of socioeconomic studies should continue the survey effort, especially

among Nevada residents. These data will provide an essential baseline and monitoring

record of the response by state residents to the Yucca Mountain project, and it can

track the development of key issues resulting from the attempts to study and site the

repository. Care should be taken to develop the survey instruments to account for

improved knowledge of the factors that affect people's attitudes and opinions (e.g.,

world views, value systems, etc.) and provide a reliable set of longitudinal data on

key variables.

The most recent national and southern California surveys were completed in the Fall,

1989, and a new survey should be designed and implemented to provide longitudinal

data for these populations. Special emphasis might be placed on transportation issues

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies @Yucca Mountain National, Regional, and Nevada State Surveys m 112

for other states, at-plant waste management and storage, decommissioning concerns,

and federal public policy options for constructively involving states and communities

in addressing the HLNW problems.

State of Nevada Socioecononlic Studies of Yucca Mounfain National, Regional, and Nevada Stare Surveys . 113

8.0 Social-Cultural: Rural Communities by Ronald Little, Utah State University and Richard Krannich, Utah State University

Any large-scale industrial development located in the midst of geographically isolated

and sparsely populated rural communities has the potential for seriously altering and/or

damaging social-cultural relationships in these communities. The potential for signiJicant

social-cultural changes is considerably increased when the project involves HLNW. Where

things nuclear2' are involved, emotions are apt to run high and conflict between proponents

and opponents becomes likely. Inter- and intracommunity conflicts are very real possibilities.

For good or ill, social-cultural changes are highly probable. Pertinent social data must be

made available to planners and decision-makers to help them solve these problems and

resolve conflicts.

Thus, it was essential that rural communities most likely to be affected by the

proposed Yucca Mountain repository be included in the study. Not all of them could be

studied, so only the four southern Nevada counties located nearest Yucca Mountain were

included. All communities included were relatively near the site or on major transportation

corridors to the site, and all were likely to be affected. These communities included Alamo-

Hiko, Amargosa Valley, Beatty, Caliente-Pioche, Goldfield, Mesquite, Indian Springs,

Pahrump, and Tonopah. However, not all were involved in each phase of the research.

20This phrase is introduced to refer to a wide variety of events and items related to radioactive material. Typically, in casual conversations community informants made little or no distinction between HLNW, radioactive fallout from weapons testing, or any other forms of radioactive material; hence, the use of the phrase things nuclear.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-C~tltural: Rural Communities 114

8.1 Objectives

There were three major objectives for the social-cultural component of the Nevada

Nuclear Waste Project: (1) documentation of the existing social-cultural context, (2)

documentation and description of local responses to the repository and the repository

program, and (3) determination of factors associated with rural residents' responses to the

repository. Each of the three objectives is intimately linked to the other two.

Before an analysis of community responses to the proposed repository could begin, it

is necessary to describe the current social-cultural conditions in the communities studied.

This description would provide not only a basis for analysis of contemporary responses, but

also a baseline for measuring change throughout the siting process and for determining with-

and without repository changes and impacts. The objectives of the baseline description are:

To collect demographic data in the affected cities and counties, including age and sex

distributions, educational and occupational characteristics, family status, length of

residence, and so on.

To describe contemporary political and organizational structures. Not only should

formal structures be considered (e.g., city government, schools and fraternal

organizations), but also informal structures (e.g., recreational and friendship groups).

Information about social structures provides an understanding of past and present

community social processes and helps in predicting future responses to the repository.

To understand the belief systems and value orientations of residents. Religious and

philosophical outlooks provide valuable insights for understanding communities and

their day-to-day activities. Residents' perceptions and beliefs influence how they

State of Nevada Socioecononuc Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Cornnzunities . 115

respond to stimuli in the future, making baseline measurement of these perceptions

and beliefs necessary.

With the description of the historical and contemporary social-cultural context as a

base, the next objective is to document local responses to the proposed repository.

It is necessary to examine predictions of and attitudes about not only the repository

itself, but also other related activities, such as NTS, Tonopah Test Range, and related

defense endeavors. This requires a determination of the levels of trust and confidence

in government and scientific representatives exhibited by residents.

Residents' perceptions of risks associated with the proposed repository were expected

to be linked to levels of trust, and both trust and risk perceptions were expected to

partially determine responses to the repository. That is, to the extent that residents

trust government and science, they will perceive lower risks from the repository and

will be more likely to provide support for the project. They would also be more likely

to perceive that allocation of costs and benefits from the repository was being done

equitably.

A final set of objectives is to determine those factors that explain community

responses to the proposed repository. The analysis focuses on two areas:

Community context factors, both historical and cultural, that correlate with

community and individual responses to the repository, including such things as

religious and political views.

State of Nevada Socioecononuc Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Communities . 116

Personal attributes, experiences, and beliefs compared to responses to the repository.

The goal is to determine the extent to which personal considerations, such as past

experience with things nuclear, might affect responses to the repository.

8.2 Methods

The social-cultural project used several research methods to answer the questions

previously raised. This multi-method approach avoided the shortcomings of using a single

data-gathering technique.

To obtain both historical and contemporary data, several data sources were examined.

Community historical records were obtained from standard history books, tourist

literature, and historical texts compiled by communities. Newspapers and government

agency records provided contemporary information. U. S . Census records were used

to compile a demographic record of change in the communities. In several instances

community-level census data were not available, and therefore county-level data were

carefully interpolated to provide a demographic picture of communities.

Before determining which communities would be examined in depth, and in order to

develop a set of specific issues on which information would be collected, a

preliminary investigation of the communities was done. In addition to examining

available data, anthropological observations and key informant interviews were

conducted in the communities in winter 1986 and spring 1987. Informants were

selected with a snowball sampling technique, letting community residents suggest

those citizens most knowledgeable about their communities. The goal of this

investigation phase was to gain an understanding of the extant social structure and

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Communities . 11 7

contemporary community issues. Additional key informant interviews were conducted

throughout 1987 and 1988.

In August, 1987, two ethnographic field workers began research activities in six

communities in Nye, Clark and Lincoln counties, which were selected because of

their proximity to the proposed site as well as their past experience with things

nuclear. Ethnographic data were collected, including anthropological observations and

information derived from formal and informal interviews, for approximately 3 months

in each of the three communities. Field activities focused on several topics, including

community structure, community attitudes and satisfaction, political economy, nuclear

issues, and risk perception.

Using sampling frames developed from utility records, discussions with utility

company employees, and/or on-site enumeration of dwelling units, a simple random

sample of households was selected in each community (Amargosa Valley, Beatty,

Pahrump, Indian Springs, Caliente, Mesquite and Goldfield).

With the information obtained from preliminary fieldwork and the ethnographic

activities, an 18 page self-completion questionnaire was developed. The questionnaire

included both open- and closed-ended questions employing various measurement

scales. The topics ranged from community ties and satisfaction, to politics and

government, to trust in science and technology, to beliefs about costs and benefits of

the proposed repository, to support for and opposition to the proposed repository.

Many of the questions were identical or parallel to those used in the urban surveys

(see chapter 9).

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Communities 118


Krannich, R., and R. Little. (1987). Baseline Community Social Profiles for Communities in

Nye, Esmeralda, Lincoln and Clark Counties (3 volumes), Yucca Mountain

Socioeconomic Project, First Year Progress Report. MRDB: SC000 1 .

These volumes include social profiles for nine communities in Clark, Lincoln, and

Nye counties: Amargosa Valley, Beatty, Pahrump, Tonopah, Goldfield, Alamo-Hiko,

Caliente, Pioche, and Mesquite. The profiles were variously authored by Krannich and Little

or Little and Krannich. Available data along with information generated by key informant

interviews in the winter of 1986 and the spring of 1987 were the bases for these individual

community reports. The focus was on the historical development, distribution of

demographic characteristics, geography, community institutional structure, and key issues

facing the community.

Endter, J., Little, R., and R. Krannich. (1988). Ethnographic Summary Report: Eastern

Lincoln County. MRDB: SC0007.

Endter, J., Little, R., and R. Krannich. (1988). Ethnographic Summary Report: Indian

Springs. MRDB: SC0007.

Endter, J., Little, R., and R. Krannich. (1988). Ethnographic Summary Report: Pahranagat

Valley. MRDB: SC0007.

Trend, M., R. Little, and R. Krannich. (1988). Ethnographic Summary Report: Amargosa

Valley. MRDB: SC0007.

Trend, M., R. Little, and R. Krannich. (1988). Ethnographic Summary Report: Beatty.

MRDB: SC0007.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Communities . 119

Trend, M., R. Little, and R. Krannich. (1988). Ethnographic Summary Report: Pahrump.

MRDB: SC0007.

These six ethnographic reports were the result of approximately 3 months of

fieldwork in each community. The fieldwork was undertaken between August, 1987 and

July, 1988. Anthropological observations and formal and informal interviews guided by a

formal research protocol provided the data discussed in these reports. The focus of each

ethnography was on economic base, political structure, formal public and private institutions,

formal nonpublic institutions, community activities and processes, attitudes and perceptions,

government, and nuclear issues.

Krannich, R., and R. Little. (1989). 1988 Rural Community Surveys: Background Report.

MRDB: RP006 1.

Krannich, R., and R. Little. (1989). 1988 Rural Community Surveys: Updated Background

Report. MRDB: RP0073.

These reports document and provide preliminary analyses of the results of data

obtained from a self-completion questionnaire administered to a random sample of 1,101

southern Nevada residents. Residents of Amargosa Valley, Beatty, Caliente, Indian Springs,

Mesquite, and Pahrump were surveyed in March through May of 1988. Residents of

Goldfield were sampled in June, 1989. A brief discussion of the results for each item in the

questionnaire is presented. No bivariate or multivariate analysis is provided.

Krannich, R., and R. Little. (1989). Goldfield Communiry Survey: Data Collection Summary

Report. MRDB: RP005 8.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Communities 120

This summary report is a compilation of frequency distributions of data collected from

a random sample of 152 Goldfield residents. The survey was conducted in June, 1989,

approximately 1 year after data was collected in the other six communities. A more complete

analysis and discussion of this data is contained in PR0073.

Krannich, R., and R. Little. (1989). Analysis of Key Sociocultural Relationships in Seven

Southern Nevada Rural Communities. MRDB: SC002 1.

This report presents a univariate and bivariate analysis of survey data collected

between 1988 and 1989 in Amargosa Valley, Beatty, Caliente, Goldfield, Indian Springs,

Mesquite, and Pahrump. Demographic and pertinent social variables were analyzed in

relationship to five theoretically important variables. The key variables were community

integration and participation, community satisfaction, community values, trust in political

structures, and trust in science.

Little, R., and R. Krannich. (1990). Major Sociocultural Impacts of the Yucca Mountain

High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository on Nearby Rural Communities. NWPO-SE-033-

90. MRDB: SC0024.

This report summarizes residents' perceptions of the proposed Yucca Mountain

repository and risk-related concerns, as well as actual or potential repository impacts on

community social structures in Amargosa Valley, Beatty, Pahrump, and Indian Springs. In

particular, attention was directed to actual and potential effects on community social

integration and involvement, community conflict, and levels of community and personal

satisfaction.

State of Nevada Socioecononuc Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Communities 121

Krannich, R., R. Little, A. Mushkatel, and D. Pijawka. (1991). Southern Nevada Residents'

Views About the Yucca Mountain High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository and Related

Issues: A Comparative Analysis of Urban and Rural Survey Data. NWPO-SE-038-91.

MRDB: RP0122.

Survey results obtained from self-completion questionnaires administered in six rural

communities were compared with similar data collected via face-to-face interviews with a

sample of residents of Henderson, Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, and urbanized areas of

Clark County. Systematic comparisons were made between the urban data and three rural

areas (i.e., CalienteIMesquite, Indian SpringsIPahrump, and Amargosa ValleyIBeatty). (Also

annotated in chapter 9, Urban Area Impacts.)

8.4 Major Findings

The multi-method data collection procedures used in this study yielded a large number

of significant findings.

It is clear that rural Nevada cannot be treated as a single entity but must be examined

on a community-by-community basis if one is to understand responses to the Yucca

Mountain repository and the social-cultural impacts. While several of the communities

appeared similar in terms of geography, demography, and history, numerous

important differences exist among them. Many of the community differences point to

factors important for understanding responses to the proposed Yucca Mountain

repository.

The data clearly support the premise that community context is an important element

in understanding responses to the repository. Even communities with generally similar


historical, social, and economic development trends (such as Caliente and Beatty)

differ significantly in their acceptance of or support for the repository. For example,

one major factor explaining this difference may be the extent to which residents of the

communities were exposed to nuclear fallout from atmospheric weapons-testing during

the 1950s and 1960~.~ ' Caliente and Mesquite residents, many of whom experienced

nuclear fallout, were far less supportive of the repository than respondents of any of

the other study sites except G~ld f i e ld .~~ The strongest support for the facility was

found in Amargosa Valley, Beatty, and Indian Springs, the three communities nearest

the proposed facility, yet not regularly exposed to nuclear fallout.

At the same time, other types of experience with things nuclear appeared to lead to

favorable responses. In the absence of any perceived negative consequences stemming

from exposure to things nuclear, respondents were disposed to support the repository.

That is, those who had worked near or with nuclear materials (e.g., employees at

NTS) and had experienced no harmful effects were somewhat more supportive than

those without such favorable e~per ience .~~ This perception was clearly evident in

21Shared knowledge of past community history affects the perceptions and beliefs of those residents who were not exposed to fallout during the earlier period.

221nsofar as survey data collected in Goldfield lagged more than a year behind data collection in the other six study communities, it is difficult to interpret their responses. Political and other social events during that year could explain any observed differences between Goldfield and the other communities.

231nterestingly, some informants who claimed that they or persons whom they knew, had been exposed to radiation leakages and undergone decontamination while working at NTS were very supportive of the proposal to build the repository.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Comnlunities 123

Beatty, Amargosa Valley, and Indian Springs, where residents had more extensive

experience with things nuclear than residents of the other communities.

Part of the support observed in these three communities stemmed from their economic

dependence on nuclear facilities like NTS. Many residents of Amargosa Valley,

Beatty and Indian Springs were dependent on jobs associated with things nuclear. This

dependency resulted in a tendency to be more accepting of both the repository and

other potentially hazardous facilities, such as nuclear power plants, than were persons

not dependent on the nuclear industry for their economic well-being.

Another important factor was the perception that the repository would bring economic

benefits to the community. Respondents in the four communities least supportive of

the repository (Pahrump, Caliente, Mesquite, and Goldfield), tended to believe that

the economic benefits would be less significant than did their counterparts in

Amargosa Valley, Beatty, and Indian Springs. Respondents who believed that the

repository would bring economic benefits tended to support it.

Just as the communities differed on context issues, they also differed on individual

perceptions of risks. Clearly, risk perceptions are related to past experience, especially

experience with things nuclear, as well as local economic conditions and other context issues.

Taken jointly, community context and risk perceptions explain a significant degree of the

variation in the observed responses to the repository and have been supported by findings

from the research on other communities (see chapter 11). However, in order to simplify the

discussion, risk perception issues have been treated separately from the context issues.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Culfural: Rural Communities 124

Caliente, Mesquite and Goldfield respondents tended to view the overall effects of the

repository as harmful, while residents of Amargosa Valley and Beatty perceived

overall effects as basically beneficial. Informants in Pahrump and Indian Springs

perceived the potential harmful and beneficial effects as approximately equal.

Perceptions of the risks associated with the repository mirrored the response patterns

obtained on probing context issues.

Perceptions of health risks showed a similar response pattern. Residents of Amargosa

Valley and Beatty were relatively unconcerned about harmful effects on public health

and safety, while Caliente, Mesquite, and Goldfield respondents were far more

concerned about threats to public health and safety. Pahrump and Indian Springs

respondents provided responses near the scale midpoint, reflecting neither great nor

little concern.

There was greater inter-community agreement on the question of contaminating water

supplies. Only respondents of Amargosa Valley and Beatty were relatively

unconcerned about such a problem, while varying degrees of concern were expressed

by the respondents in the other five study communities.

The response pattern was similar again on the issue of safely transporting nuclear

wastes. A large majority of Amargosa Valley and Beatty residents believed that it

could be done safely, and a smaller proportion of respondents in Pahrump and Indian

Springs also believed this. Respondents in Caliente, Mesquite, and Goldfield were

approximately evenly divided on the issue. Interestingly, there was a tendency for

respondents in all communities to believe that transportation accidents were inevitable.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Conununities . 125

The average respondent in all communities demonstrated a considerable distrust in the

federal government, which was roughly uniform across communities. Nevada state

government fared a little better, although residents of Amargosa Valley were slightly

less trusting than residents of the other communities. Across communities,

respondents suggested that they trusted county and local governments only slightly

more than they did the state or federal governments. In the case of county

government, respondents of Amargosa Valley were somewhat less trusting than the

respondents of the other communities. In part, their distrust obviously reflected the

political battles that had been fought both within the state and between Nevada and the

federal government since the passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act (1982) and its

Amendments (1987).

More importantly, however, when the question of trusting the federal government

to provide honest and accurate information about nuclear programs was raised, only

respondents in Amargosa Valley and Beatty provided responses that could be

interpreted as reflecting any degree of trust. Respondents in Caliente, Mesquite and

Goldfield indicated that they did not believe that the federal government had provided

honest and truthful information about nuclear programs. Responses in Pahrump and

Indian Springs fell between these two extremes.

On the question of the fairness of the site selection process, the response pattern again

distinguished the respondents in Amargosa Valley and Beatty from the respondents in

Caliente, Mesquite, and Goldfield. The former found the site selection process

somewhat fair, while the latter found the process somewhat unfair. This difference


results in part from the fact that residents of Amargosa Valley and Beatty generally

support the proposed repository. Further analysis would undoubtedly uncover

additional explanatory factors. Respondents in Pahrump and Indian Springs were

essentially neutral on the issue of fairness.

In addition to the empirical evidence provided by the social-cultural study, one very

important theoretical consequence emerged. The results discussed here cast serious

doubt on the validity and/or utility of two frequently used explanatory concepts: the

NIMBY (not in my backyard) syndrome and risk perception shadows. While these

two concepts would predict that support for the repository would be greatest in

communities furthest from the site, study evidence demonstrated that support for the

repository was strongest in communities nearest to the project. Communities further

from the site were the most opposed to it and the most concerned about potential

risks.


Future work should begin with a continuing analysis of data already collected. To

date, much of the data lacks detailed and complex analysis.

In order to evaluate the repository's impact, measurements should, at the least, be

made prior to any activity associated with the change (i.e., prior to a proposal for a

nuclear waste repository) and again after changes have occurred. A more scientifically

acceptable procedure, however, would include multiple measures spaced at strategic

points throughout the impact period to monitor changes and avoid problems associated

with unique historical events not associated with the change stimuli.


It is essential that an additional round or rounds of data collection be undertaken if the

impacts of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository are to be adequately determined

and evaluated. The baseline data is now in hand, and comparative data needs be

collected.

Future data collection instruments and procedures should closely resemble those

initially used for comparison purposes, but they need not be identical. In fact,

appropriate changes to the instruments and procedures are called for. While new

ethnographic, key informant, and questionnaire data are needed, the second or later

rounds of data collection need not be as extensive as those used for establishing a

baseline. The reduction of the volume of data required to make meaningful

assessments and evaluations follows from three facts. First, much of the new data

would merely be up-dates of the baseline data. Second, some of the questions pursued

in the initial questionnaire have proved to have limited value in assessing social-

cultural impacts. Thus, the questionnaire, as well as key informant interviews and

ethnographic data, could have a substantially reduced scope, while still providing an

adequate foundation for assessing impacts. Third, while necessary for establishing the

parameters of potential impacts, not all communities included in the initial research

need be included in a second round of data collection. Money could be saved if

Tonopah, Alamo-Hiko, Pioche, and Mesquite were eliminated from the study design.

While there would be a loss in the breadth and comparative capacity of future

analysis, the focus on the communities most likely to be impacted would be sharper.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Comnzunities . 128

Further examination of factors that affect the attractiveness of local communities to

residents, particularly recent immigrants, is needed to better articulate the linkages

between local community conditions and possible impacts addressed in the economic-

demographic modeling.

While a research design such as the one just proposed may not meet ideal scientific

standards, it would provide a reasonable approximation, allowing for a valid

assessment of the social impacts resulting from the proposed repository. In any event,

follow-up data collection is essential if the impacts of the Yucca Mountain facility are

to be scientifically estimated and the money invested in the initial data collection and

analysis not wasted.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Social-Cultural: Rural Cornntunities 129

9.0 Urban Area Impacts by K. David Pijawka, Arizona State University and James Flynn, Decision Research

The focus of urban area impacts for the Yucca Mountain socioeconomic studies is the

Las Vegas metropolitan area (LVMA). This includes the cities of Las Vegas, North Las

Vegas, and Henderson, along with significant unincorporated areas (including the famous

strip along Las Vegas Boulevard) where Clark County provides government services to the

urban area.

The LVMA is a large, complex area with a history of dramatic growth and change.

The area has a unique economic, social, and cultural base; indeed the visitor and gaming

industry, which dominates the local economy, is so singular and original that it is known

worldwide. The area has experienced exceptional growth and change during the 1980s and

has been the fastest growing major metropolitan area in the country with more than 4,000

people moving in per month.

There is significant federal government presence because the LVMA serves as the

residential location of a vast majority of workers at the Nuclear Test Site (NTS), Nellis Air

Force Base, and other Department of Defense facilities. Management and administration of

the NTS is headquartered in the urban area. (See chapter 3, Economic-Demographic studies,

for a guide to information on these topics).

Assessing the impacts of a repository on the LVMA presented the study team with

some serious challenges. First, socioeconomic impact assessment (SIA) methods-those

developed subsequent to the National Environmental Policy Act (1969)-had focused on rural

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Urban Area Impacts I30

and semi-rural areas. Much of the methodology for doing SIA studies had addressed resource

development and industrial projects that were purposely located some distance from major

metropolitan areas. Nuclear power plants, for example, have siting guidelines that emphasize

lower population densities than occur in cities and suburbs.

The significance of a project's effects in urban areas is difficult to determine because

of the complexity of the existing conditions and diversity of affected social groups and

values. Moreover, impact assessments have favored examination of standard effects. New

approaches were required to investigate stigma impacts for an urban area.

These conditions have limited the use of accepted methods and approaches to

assessing risk-induced socioeconomic impacts from projects in complex urban areas. More

emphasis is needed on developing both the theory and methods for conducting urban area

impact assessments related to large-scale facilities that present risk to environment and

health. Surveys are an important in measuring the potential impacts due to attitudes,

opinions, and behavior patterns. Monitoring these sources of information and relating the

survey findings to economic data over time helps define the causal links between the

repository and the eventual impacts.

The work done so far concentrates on addressing the most significant impacts, which

have been identified with such approaches even for the large, complex Las Vegas urban area.

The full scope of repository-related impacts may not be discovered until a diverse set of

methods are applied to the urban area over time.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Urban Area Impacts 131

9.1 Objectives

The Yucca Mountain repository project is one of the most controversial issues ever

faced by residents of Nevada. This fact has an important influence on the objectives of the

socioeconomic studies. In addition, the difficulties of isolating effects from a single program

in an urban area and providing impact evaluations, along with the paucity of developed

methods for doing such work, has defined some of the basic objectives of the study team.

These objectives were:

To determine the importance of the Yucca Mountain project as a public issue and as a

matter of policy for state and local governments. To identify the full range of

conditions within the socioeconomic and political life of the urban area that has been,

or potentially might be, significantly affected by the repository as a public issue.

To measure public support and opposition to the repository program.

To measure the conditions and factors that the public considered important in making

choices about the acceptability, or lack of it, of a repository program. The areas

hypothesized to be important included perceptions of risk from repository activities

(e.g., transportation, handling, and long term storage of wastes); trust and confidence

in federal management of high-level wastes; the potential for positive impacts from

employment, purchases and other spending, and from public revenues and benefits;

the potential for negative impacts resulting from stigma effects; and the issues of

equity and fairness in site selection.


To provide information on the underlying forces that might influence relations

between officials in the metropolitan area and other local jurisdictions, the state

officials and agencies, and the federal government.

To identify the groups of citizens (perhaps identified as stakeholders) who would be

most affected by the repository program, and gather information for evaluating

current and potential impacts.

To examine the role of information and information sources as shapers of people's

perceptions and opinions. How does media information amplify repository issues?

What sources of information are distrusted?

To consider how the repository as a political issue affects the political life of the

urban area, and the state (because the LVMA makes up almost two-thirds of the state

population).

9.2 Methods

The complexity of the Las Vegas metropolitan area requires a broad array of methods

to provide the information needed for adequate impact assessment. The following

methodologies were either employed or included in research planning for the urban area

studies.

Survey research was used to measure attitudes and opinions about the issues

associated with the repository program, underlying characteristics, such as perceptions

of risk, trust and confidence, potential economic benefits or costs, and equity and

fairness concerns. These surveys included both telephone and in-person interviews and

have been conducted since 1987 by the study team. In addition, information on Clark


County and the LVMA has been collected in state level surveys, sometimes by over

sampling (see chapter 6).

Ethnographic studies were undertaken in Clark County and in the LVMA. These

studies provided direct and detailed information for a small subset of the population

and was helpful in designing the survey instruments used to capture public perceptions

of the repository.

Participant-observer studies included attendance by study team members at numerous

public meetings and activities that present the concerns and issues associated with the

repository. These activities were sponsored by DOE, the State of Nevada, local

government, and activist groups.

Focus group interviews were conducted to provide in-depth examination of the issues

and concerns of the participants and to help structure other data collection, especially

the survey questionnaires.

Key informant interviews were conducted with public officials and other interested

persons.

Secondary data collection focused on the urban area (see chapter 3, Economic-

Demographic studies).

Files of Las Vegas newspaper reports on Yucca Mountain as a public issue were

established. The study team also collected numerous government documents and

publications on the repository program but to date no systematic analysis of the

material has been accomplished.

State of Nevuda Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Urban Area Impacts 134

Analogous cases were documented and examined (see chapter 11). One important

analogous case study concerned an accident in the LVMA-the 1988 PEPCON

explosion-and the response of state and local governments was studied. An important

component of this study was a survey of the public response to, and evaluation of, the

PEPCON accident.


Krannich, R., R. Little, A. Mushkatel, and D. Pijawka. (1991). Southern Nevada Residents'

Views About the Yucca Mountain HLNW Repository and Rela.ted Issues: A

Comparative Analysis of Urban and Rural Survey Data. NWPO-SE-038-91. MRDB:

RP0122.

This report provides a comparative analysis of the 1988 Urban Survey and the

findings from six rural surveys also completed in 1988. The rural communities were

Amargosa Valley, Beatty, and Pahrump in Nye County, Indian Springs and Mesquite in

Clark County, and Caliente in Lincoln County. The analyses examined ways in which the

attitudes and perceptions of the urban and rural study areas may be similar or different and

they focused on five major areas: responses to acceptability of the repository; perceived risks

associated with the proposed repository; perceptions of possible effects resulting from nuclear

weapons activities at the Nuclear Test Site; perceptions of the trustworthiness of federal

government entities (e.g., DOE) for managing the repository program; and risk acceptance

or aversion to a variety of hazardous and noxious facilities. (This report is also listed in

chapter 8.)

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Urban Area Impacts . 135

Mushkatel, A., E. Herzik, W. Freudenburg, and H. Molotch. (1987). Urban Area Study

Design. MRDB: SC0011.

This report outlines approaches to conducting socioeconomic impact assessment

studies in a major metropolitan area. The authors recommend a stakeholder identification and

analyses process to address important social, cultural, and political impacts.

Mushkatel, A., J. Nigg, and D. Pijawka. (1988). PEPCON Explosion Survey: Objectives of

Study and Methodology (Sample Design and Henderson Special Sample) Screening

Questionnaire; Questionnaire Instrument. MRDB: RP00 15.

Pijawka, D., A. Mushkatel, and R. Marountas. (1989). The PEPCON Explosion: Residents'

Behavior, Evaluation, and Perceptions of Safety. MRDB: RP0062.

Pijawka, D., A. Mushkatel, and J. Nigg. (1988). Preliminary Stutisticul Results of the

PEPCON Accident Survey. MRDB: RP0052.

These reports document and analyze the survey conducted in 1988 immediately after

the PEPCON accident. The PEPCON plant, which produced highly volatile products for

rocket fuels, experienced an accident and explosion that resulted in death, injury, and

extensive property damage. An oversample was included for Henderson, Nevada, the

location of the PEPCON plant, and the nearest residential populations. The survey report

provides information on the chronology of the events, the responses and evaluations of

residents from Henderson and the Las Vegas urban area, sources of news and assessments of

news coverage, evacuation and other accident-related behaviors, extent of damages to homes

and businesses, and evaluation of emergency response including medical coverage and the

performance of public services (e. g., police, fire, EMS, emergency communications).


Mushkatel, A., J. Nigg, and D. Pijawka. (1989). Urban Risk Survey: Public Response,

Perception and Intended Behavior of Las Vegas Metro Residents to the HLNW

Repository. MRDB: RP0054.

Mushkatel, A., and D. Pijawka. (1989). The Analysis of the Urban Area Survey Data.

MRDB: RP0079.

These reports describe the implementation and findings for the 1988 Urban Area

Survey. The design and conduct of the survey are documented. Findings about the urban area

residents' attitudes toward the repository are recorded and analyzed, as are numerous

independent and intervening variable clusters. Key mediating factors that affect the

perceptions of the repository are investigated, as are responses to scenarios that present

hypothetical risk futures.

Mushkatel, A., D. Pijawka, and M. Dantico. (1990). Risk-Inducted Social Impacts: EfSects of

the Proposed Nuclear Waste Repository on Residents of Las Vegas Metro Area.

NWPO-SE-032-90. MRDB: RP0 107.

This report examines the findings about responses to the repository program by Las

Vegas metropolitan area residents from two surveys: the 1988 Urban Area Survey and the

Clark County respondents to the 1989 Nevada State Survey. The report addresses findings on

perceptions of risk from the repository, comparison of repository evaluations with other

kinds of industrial risks, the assessment of possible future impacts of operating a repository,

the role that trust in specific institutions and agencies play in risk perceptions, and the policy

and political activities supported by respondents.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Molintain Urban Area Impacrs . 137

Rucker, R. (1988). History, Participation and Sociocultural Impact of Gaming on the Las

Vegas Valley Urban Area. MRDB: SC0005

This document discusses the history, economics, and social aspects of gaming in the

Las Vegas metropolitan area. The initial section summarizes the history of legalized

gambling in the United States, focusing on social trends for and against it. The second

section gives an overview of the social, economic, and psychiatric research on gambling

behavior. The third section provides a history of gambling in Las Vegas and Nevada,

including a description of the state of the industry today with tables on corporate involvement

and gaming tax revenues. A history of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, its

function and its influence on the social aspects of gambling is presented in the fourth section.

In the final sections, the author provides profiles of Clark County visitors and local (Clark

County) gamblers.

Rucker, R. (1988). Report on the Development of the Transportation Corridors in the Las

Vegas Valley Urban Area. MRDB: SC0006.

This document follows the social historical development of the highway corridors of

the Las Vegas metropolitan area from the 1960s to the mid-1980s, emphasizing the political

and social struggle of citizen groups, particularly the Clark County Concerned Citizens

(CCCC), who opposed the location and sometimes even the development of the urban area

highways. This report contends that the controversy surrounding the construction of both the

east and west legs (1-515 and U.S. 95, respectively) is analogous to future opposition to

routing the HLNW through the Las Vegas urban area. The information in this document was

derived from interviews with those who were significantly involved in or those who knew


about the decisions specifying where the transportation arteries would be located and from

secondary sources such as local newspapers.

Stewart, K. (1988). Ethnography of the Urban Area, Las Vegas Valley: Preliminary Report.

MRDB: SC0008.

This report provides a brief outline of ethnographic research in the Las Vegas urban

area between 1988 and 1989.

9.4 Major Findings

The following major findings have resulted from studies conducted in the Las Vegas

metropolitan area.

Opposition to the project has consistently been very strong for a public issue, with

over two-thirds (usually about 70 percent) opposed. The Yucca Mountain repository is

a major issue. Less than 10 percent of LVMA residents do not have an opinion for or

against the repository project.

Support for the repository, while quite small, is strongest in the LVMA. This is the

result of the existing DOE influence stemming from long-term operation of the

Nuclear Test Site, the tendency of military personnel and families to support federal

programs, the infrastructure of DOE subcontractors and dependent unions, and the

focus of the nuclear industry on Las Vegas as the target for obtaining support for

Yucca Mountain.

Perceptions of the risks presented by the repository project are very high, much

beyond anything estimated by DOE or nuclear industry experts. As is true for other


samples (e.g., national, regional, and statewide), women consistently record higher

perceptions of risk than do men. Those aged 30-39 were significantly more opposed

to the repository than were other age groups.

The potential stigma impacts are widely recognized by urban area residents, and these

respondents have concerns that visitors and tourists will be deterred from coming to

Las Vegas because of the repository.

LVMA respondents report that location of a repository at Yucca Mountain, including

the transportation and other activities, would significantly reduce their satisfaction

with the community as a place to live. The difference was a 20 percent drop from

their current levels of satisfaction to their estimate of a future with a repository.

Transportation risks were considered very high by LVMA residents, who felt that the

urban area is most vulnerable to the consequences of accidents, given its role as a

transportation center and the fact that a large population is at risk.

There is little trust and confidence in the federal government's repository program,

and substantially more confidence in the state and local officials to represent the urban

area public. The problem of trust and confidence in managers of the program has

been found in a number of other cases (see chapter 11).

Residents of the LVMA strongly support opposition to the repository on the part of

state and local officials, including the elected members of Congress.

The lack of trust extends to the nuclear industry. Attempts by the American Nuclear

Energy Council to mount an advertising campaign promoting the safety, inevitability,


and benefits of the repository were rejected by the public, who did not trust the

message (see chapter 6).

The belief that the repository is inevitable has declined over the past 5 years. While

almost 90 percent thought in 1988 that the repository would be built regardless of

opposition from Nevadans, by 1992 this figure was closer to 50 percent.

Relations between the state and local governments have been affected in both positive

and negative ways by the repository program. Independent funding of Clark County

by the NWF may have created some tensions with the state due to differences in

policies and strategies for responding to the repository program.


The following recommendations result from an evaluation of the LVMA

socioeconomic studies conducted over the past 6 years. Future studies of the urban area

should:

Monitor public attitudes and opinions about the repository program. State-level

surveys and polls should be designed to gather a reasonable number of responses from

the urban area and allow for a statistically sound database to be created over time.

Continue to coordinate and increase the independent funding of the affected counties

and the resources allocated to Clark County to sponsor research on the urban area.

Make an adequately funded effort to develop methods and techniques for conducting

studies in the urban area that can identify, track, and evaluate repository-related

impacts. The stakeholder approach should be reviewed as a possible starting point for

this essential development work.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Urban Area Impacts I41

Analyze nonrespository events (e.g., the NTS activities) to see how such events have

impacts in the urban area.

Establish a program to track local media coverage to understand the way in which

stories and other messages influence public response. This work should document

media performance and relate it to developing theories such as the social amplification

of risk, the concepts of perceptions of risk and stigma, and the role of trust and

confidence in the public perception of risk managers.

Further research public attitudes and opinions about transportation issues.

Understand, through analysis, how DOE works with the nuclear industry (e.g.,

ANEC), and how this relationship affects the public opinions and attitudes about the

repository.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mozinfain Urban Area Impacts 142

10.0 Socio-Cultural: Native American by Catherine Fowler, University of Nevada, Reno

Studies were undertaken among Native American residents of Clark, Nye, and

Lincoln counties in Nevada, and Inyo County in California because these areas are closest to

the repository site. Native American persons in these counties are, for the most part,

members of two large cultural and linguistic entities-the Western Shoshone and the Southern

Paiute-whose aboriginal territories come together near Yucca Mountain. Western Shoshone

people involved in the study were and are resident or affiliated with reservation communities

at Yomba and Duckwater, Nevada, and Death Valley, California (Timbi-Sha Shoshone).

Southern Paiute people involved included those at reservation communities at Moapa and Las

Vegas. All of these reservations have federally recognized tribal governments. Other people

of Western Shoshone and Southern Paiute descent, some members of federally recognized

tribes and some not, were contacted at Beatty, Tonopah, Caliente, Pahrump, and Dyer,

Nevada. The large urban Native American population of Las Vegas was not sampled beyond

the Las Vegas Colony.

Primary data collection occurred between September, 1986 and September, 1988,

with some brief additional updates to September, 1990.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Socio-Cultural: Native Anlerican 143

10.1 Objectives

The objectives of the Native American studies were to:

Provide baseline data on Native American communities and persons early in the

Yucca Mountain Waste Repository Project so that potential and resultant project

impacts could be better assessed.

Acquire preliminary data as required by federal environmental laws (National

Environmental Policy Act, Archaeological Resources Protection Act, American Indian

Religious Freedom Act) relative to potential adverse impacts on specific cultural

resources and properties in the proposed site area.

Investigate Native American attitudes toward the Yucca Mountain repository project,

including their views as to potential positive and negative cultural, social, economic,

and health impacts.

Insure some level of involvement in the State's planning process for Native American

people and communities.

10.2 Methods

The methods used on this project were the same or similar to those commonly used in

anthropology and sociology in previous work involving Native American socioeconomic and

environmental impact assessments. They included:

A literature review of previously published sources for the area and groups in cultural

anthropology, socioeconomics, and demography.

Field surveys to locate and interview reservation and non-reservation populations and

collect genealogies.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Socio-Culrurul: Native American 8 144

Tours with Native American representatives of the proposed project site (Yucca

Mountain) in the company of archaeologists.

Resident ethnographic fieldwork in the communities (Duckwater, Yomba, Timbi-Sha,

Moapa, Las Vegas, and Pahrump) .

Administration and analyses of a modified version of a questionnaire (risk perception)

designed by the larger socioeconomic study team.

Review of federal, state, and local governmental interactions with tribes in the study

area in recent years. This involved a review of documents and library resources as

well as discussion with Native American peoples.


Fowler, C. (1986). Historic Indian Names in the Yucca Mountain Area. MRDB: NA0002.

Family names for Shoshone and Paiute people historically associated with the Yucca

Mountain area and contained in published sources are presented in this report. Also included

are dates and specific areas with which they were associated, as well as birth dates and

genealogical information when available.

Sources used include ethnographic sources, census reports, technical reports regarding

the Death Valley Timbisha Shoshone prepared for the U.S. Department of the Interior

(1982), and an unpublished manuscript prepared by Beth Sennett-Walker (1985) on the

Scotty's Castle area. Sources vary in type of data given, completeness, and reliability.

Information was to be further verified and updated at a future date to gain an understanding

about the present and past population of the area.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Socio-Cultural: Native American 145

Fowler, C., M. Hamby, and M. Rusco. (1987). Native American Studies, Appendix A.5.4 in

First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report. MRDB: NA000 1.

This document consists of two reports that provide baseline data derived from

literature searches and preliminary ethnographic and socioeconomic fieldwork. It also

establishes a definition of the pre-contact, immediate post-contact, and present-day

characteristics of Native American settlement patterns, subsistence, sociopolitical features,

and aspects of ceremony and ritual viewed as important in locating the population and

determining its involvement with the project site at Yucca Mountain. Also assessed are

demographic and socioeconomic data gathered over the past 25 years by various government

agencies and tribes. The Western Shoshone and the Southern Paiute territories discussed

include Beatty, Belted Range and Death Valley Shoshone districts, Pahrump Southern Paiute

area, and Ash Meadows Shoshone-Southern Paiute area.

Maps and tables are included. The appendices include 1980 Native American census

information, tables summarizing labor force characteristics, and household and housing

characteristics information. Also included are socioeconomic data, religious and legal

perspectives, and a section on the identification and location of Native American people in

the areas concerned.

Cultural Resources Consultants. (1988). Native American Visit to Yucca Mountain: October

16-1 7, 1987. MRDB: NA0005.

This is a report on the results of a 2-day, ten-site visit with ten Native Americans to

Yucca Mountain and the immediate vicinity. The Native American consultants are either

Western Shoshone or Southern Paiute. The plant, animal, water, and various other resources

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Socio-Cultural: Native American . 146

of each site are discussed, as are their respective uses (i.e., food, medicinal, utilitarian, etc.).

Cultural practices with respect to the resources are also mentioned. Native words for plants,

animals, and places are recorded.

The site of the proposed repository is discussed and all the Native Americans are

asked to take this information back to their respective communities for discussion. There is a

general agreement among the consultants present that the proposed repository should be

opposed not only for environmental and health reasons, but also because it would pose a

threat to Mother Earth and deny the Native Americans access to ancestral lands.

Cultural Resources Consultants. (1988). Socioeconomic Profiles of Native American

Communities: Las Vegas Colony and Pahrump-Lower Amargosa Valley. MRDB:

NA0004.

This report includes a discussion of marriage and household composition, housing

conditions, education levels and facilities, labor force characteristics and income, health care,

community services and administrative structure, and tribal enterprises (Las Vegas Colony

only). Tables are included.

At the Las Vegas Colony there were two major concerns: unemployment and a lack

of adequate land and housing for all the tribal members who wish to live there. It is hoped

that acquisition of land north of the city will expand the tribe's economic base and ease these

problems. With a few exceptions, the Native Americans of the Pahrump and Lower

Amargosa valleys do not have tribal status and lack political recognition. Lack of adequate

transportation, both public and private, is a major problem.


Fowler, C., M. Rusco, and M. Hamby. (1988). Native Americans and Yucca Mountain:

Ethnographic Sketches Las Vegas, Paranigat and Panaca, and Moapa Southern

Paiute and Central Nevada Western Shoshone. MRDB: NA0003.

These pre-contact ethnographic sketches are derived from the fieldwork of I. Kelly, J.

Steward, J. W. Powell, and others. Topics discussed include the pre-contact location of the

groups, the natural environment, plant, animal, and mineral resources, settlement and

subsistence patterns, seasonal and/or year-round campsites (with a listing of residents),

horticultural practices, population density, kinship and sociopolitical organization, and

ceremony and ritual. The linkage of each group to the Yucca Mountain area is presented.

Hamby, M. (1988). Native Americans Contemporary Socioeconomic Sketches, Esmeralda and

Lincoln Counties and Death Valley. MRDB: NA0006.

The Native American population of Esmeralda Country was 21 in 1988. In Lincoln

County, 18 were of Western Shoshone or Southern Paiute ancestry in 1987. The Timbisha

Shoshone of Death Valley are descendants of the aboriginal inhabitants of the area and are a

federally recognized tribe. The demographics, household composition, housing, education,

labor force characteristics, income, and population growth trends (Esmeralda and Lincoln

counties only) of these people are discussed. Like their White counterparts, the Native

American populations in these regions are largely dependent on health care and other services

provided in towns and cities many miles away. The political structure, tribal industry (none

at the present time), economic development, and the land issue of the Timbisha Shoshone are

discussed. The source of the valley's water supply lies directly under Yucca Mountain;

State of Nevada Socioeconontic Studies of Yucca Mountain Socio-Cultural: Native American . 148

therefore, the Shoshone residents, as well as the Park Service, express concerns about the

safety of this water should the nuclear repository be built at the proposed site.

Hamby, M., and M. Rusco. (1988). Responses to Risk Perception Questionnaire: Western

Shoshone Reservations (Volume 1) and Southern Paiute Reservations (Volume 2).

MRDB: NA0009.

Western Shoshone of Southern Nevada and Eastern California: A description of the

sample population and its characteristics, as well as comments and interpretations of answers

to community questions (satisfaction with the reservation, schooling, employment

opportunities, services, etc.). Comments and interpretations of the answers to questions

regarding the impact of NTS nuclear testing, the visit to the NTSIYucca Mountain area, and

comments about the impacts, harmful and/or beneficial, of building the proposed repository

are included. Concerns about health, the environment, and safety were expressed in regard to

the proposed repository.

Southern Paiute Reservations (Las Vegas, Moapa, and Pahrump): A report describing

the sample population and its characteristics. The Data Appendices present tabulations of the

1988 Questionnaire Data. This includes data concerning socioeconomic profiles and attitudes

toward the nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain.

Rusco, E. (1988). Establishment of the Yomba Reservation. MRDB: NA0008.

A discussion of aboriginal conditions is provided. The impact of Euro-American

settlers in the 1860s, due to cattle grazing, farming, and mining, was substantial and forced

Western Shoshone participation in the Euro-American cash economy. Government, as well as

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Moilntain Socio-Cultural: Native American . 149

Native American involvement, provided the impetus for the establishment of the Reservation

in the mid and late 1930s. Appropriation of funds, land acquisition, and assignments are

discussed. The population figures and farming and ranching activities from 1939 to 1946 are

presented. The long process of organization under the Indian Reorganization Act is

described, and the results of this delay are discussed. Other early problems include the need

to secure permits for additional grazing rights from the Forest Service and the Bureau of

Land Management, and lack of sufficient water rights.

By 1945 the incomes of reservation residents had increased, cattle production had

expanded, and the Reese River Shoshone Livestock Association was incorporated.

Construction of houses and other buildings had gone forward. Suitable water for homes was

a problem, as was the Reservation's isolation from schools and services. From the standpoint

of Native American goals and objectives, the creation of the Yomba Reservation was a

success, in that living standards were increased for its residents. However, due to lack of

adequate land, the reservation did not provide help for all the people who needed it.

Rusco, M., and M. Hamby. (1988). Socioeconomic Profiles of Native American

Communities: Moapa, Yomba Shoshone, and Duckwater Shoshone Indian

Reservations. MRDB : NA0007.

The following topics are discussed for each community: location, reservation history,

demographic characteristics, household composition, housing, availability of health care and

other services, education, labor force characteristics and household income, economic

opportunity, tribal economic development, reservation administrative structure, and tribal

enterprises.


Lack of employment opportunities is cited as a major concern in all three

communities. The residents of both Yomba and Duckwater would like to see some type of

tribal industry developed; however, physical isolation and lack of services at these two

reservations may make economic development difficult. Residents of Moapa are dissatisfied

with the lack of programs (recreational, youth, senior citizen, etc.). A comparison of

socioeconomic conditions at the Las Vegas Colony with the landless Pahrump and Lower

Amargosa Native American community is made.

Hamby, M. (1989). The Timbisha Shoshone of Death Valley, California and the Issue of

Nuclear Waste. MRDB: NA00 15.

The purpose of this study was to ascertain the present living situation of the Timbisha

Shoshone and project possible impacts on them from the proposed Yucca Mountain

repository. The environment, language, history, traditional subsistence, and population

history are discussed. Included is information on contemporary (1988) household

composition, kinship, and social structure, education (past and present), employment, tribal

industry, health care (traditional and non-traditional), religion, and worldviews.

The ten-site visit to Yucca Mountain by Death Valley consultants in October 1987 is

discussed (also see, MRDB NA0018 and NA0021). The Death Valley people do not believe

that nuclear waste can be transported and stored safely. They feel accidents will happen that

would not only damage their homeland, but also jeopardize their personal health and safety.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Socio-Cultural: Native Antetican . 151

Rusco, M. (1989). Transportation of High Level Nuclear Waste: Potential Impacts on Native

American Populations in Southern Nevada: The Moapa Band of Paiute Indians, A

Case Study. MRDB: NA0013.

The first section of this report focuses on early Southern Paiute culture (distribution,

subsistence, and religion). The second section describes historic and contemporary culture

and shows the persistence of traditional values. It also identifies community concerns about

transporting hazardous material across tribal lands. These data provide a baseline for

predicting the impacts of transporting HLNW over the present and traditional land-holdings

of the Moapa Band during the life of the proposed project.

Two potential major routes for transporting wastes to Yucca Mountain are Interstate

15 and the Union Pacific Railroad, both of which cross Moapa band trust lands. Members of

the Moapa band were identified, located, and sampled. Respondents expressed greatest

concerns about the potential risk to personal and tribal health and safety caused by radiation,

air, water pollution, and so on. A few members believe tribal economy would be affected.

The possible impacts on cultural resources and sacred sites are the third major area of

concern.

Fowler, C. (with contributions from .M. Hamby, E. Rusco, and M. Rusco). (1990). Native

Americans and Yucca Mountain: A Summary Report. NWPO-SE-026-90. MRDB:

NAOO18.

This report summarizes data collected from Native American people in southern

Nevada (and parts of southern California) regarding the potential impacts of the construction

of a repository at Yucca Mountain. It discusses the culture, history, and use of Yucca


Mountain in the past and the present-day concerns of Western Shoshone and Southern Paiute

people about the cultural resources that remain there today. Present-day socioeconomic

concerns, demographics, social organization, political structure, cultural values, and so on,

are also presented. In general, the people interviewed see the proposed repository as a threat

to the environment and to Mother Earth, and these concerns outweigh any economic benefits.

Various legal issues involved are also discussed. Appendices are included with material on

the Yucca Mountain site visit (see MRDB# NA0005), socioeconomic data for the Western

Shoshone and Southern Paiute Communities and Reservations studied, results of the 1988

Modified Risk Perception Questionnaire; and a project bibliography.

Fowler, C. (with M. Hamby, E. Rusco, and M. Rusco). (1991). Native Americans and

Yucca Mountain: A Revised and Updated Summary Report on Research Undertaken

Between 1987-91 (2 volumes). NWPO-SE-039-91. MRDB: NA002 1.

This is an updated version (with some updates to May 1991) of MRDB# NA0018

(Native Americans and Yucca Mountain: A Summary Report, 1990). Volume 1 includes an

expanded Executive Summary and additions to 1.4, Field Work for the Yucca Mountain

Project; 2.1, Cultural Resources on Yucca Mountain; 2.2 Applications of National Historic

Preservation Act of 1966 (NHPA) and American Indian Religious Freedom Act (AIRFA) to

Yucca Mountain; 2.4 Cultural Themes: Mother Earth at Risk; 3.1.6, Social Organization and

Values (Western Shoshone); 3.2.1, General Economy (Southern Paiute); and 3.4 Urban Las

Vegas (new section). The notes are expanded.


A proposed route for viewing archaeological sites in the NNWSI Yucca Mountain

area for ethnographic on-site visits (with map) is added to Appendix I, Native American Site

Visit to Yucca Mountain, October 16-17, 1987. Volume 2 is the Project Bibliography.

Hamby, H. (199 1). Socioeconomic Profiles of Native American Communities: Duckwater

Shoshone Reservation. NWPO-SE-042-9 1. MRDB: NA0024.

This report provides baseline information on Duckwater Shoshone Reservation's

location and history; population and household composition (1940-1988), and housing (pre-

reservation and post-reservation). Education levels, school facilities, funding, and programs

are presented. Also included is information concerning labor force characteristics, income,

health care, social and community services, access to utilities, and tribal government

structure. Plans aimed at community self-sufficiency are discussed. The reservation's

isolation makes transportation for its residents to service centers a major concern. This

isolation may also hinder economic development and community self-sufficiency.

The appendix summarizes and compares data received from the modified Risk

Perception Questionnaire administered to Western Shoshone People in 1988 (Yomba,

Duckwater, and Death Valley).

Hamby, M. (1991). Socioeconomic Profiles of Native American Communities: Yomba

Shoshone Reservation. NWPO-SE-04 1-9 1. MRDB: NA0025.

This report discusses the location, physical environment, and reservation history from

its formation in the mid to late 1930s to 1988 (reservation history is expanded on in

Appendix B). Also discussed are demographic characteristics from the early reservation

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Eicca Mountain Socio-Cultural: Native American . 154

period to 1988, household composition, housing facilities (including HUD homes), education

(including levels and problems), labor force and income, health care, social and community

services, transportation, utilities, and tribal government.

The reservation is very isolated, a problem compounded by lack of paved roads and

access to communication facilities. Repair and service to telephones, power lines, and other

utilities is slow and inefficient. In 1988, the reservation lacked its own law enforcement.

Employment opportunities are few and uncertain. The tribal members hope to expand job

opportunities by beginning some type of tribal industry, but the lack of infrastructure may

make economic development difficult.

Appendix A presents the Risk Perception Questionnaire (1988) for the Western

Shoshone of Southern Nevada and Eastern Nevada with a tabulation of the data. Appendix B

is a history of the establishment of the Yomba Reservation and its early years written by

Elmer Rusco.

Rusco, E. (199 1). Native Americans and State and Local Government. NWPO-SE-043-9 1.

MRDB: NA0022.

The strongest Native American objections to the establishment of a nuclear repository

at Yucca Mountain come from Western Shoshones and the newly-organized Western

Shoshone National Council. This report outlines the ways in which they have laid claim to

their traditional lands and the resources on them, including claims to ownership of Yucca

Mountain, where they would never permit a nuclear waste repository. A history of the

evolution of the Western Shoshone National Council and its present-day policies and

activities are presented. There are several other reservations located around the proposed site


which may also be adversely affected, but more information is needed about them. The

question arises as to whether state and local government would adequately represent Native

American concerns regarding Yucca Mountain if there is no formal way in which Native

Americans can represent themselves. Several federal court decisions involving Native

Americans made during the last 20 years are outlined. Outside the Nevada Indian Affairs

Commission, which was created in 1965, there is very little involvement with Native

American affairs at the state level. Native American rights and privileges acknowledged

under Nevada law are outlined. However, state and local awareness and/or advocacy of

Native American concerns about the Yucca Mountain repository are justified, and the NWPO

has been willing to involve itself in Native American issues arising out of the Yucca

Mountain repository project.

Rusco, M. (1991). Socioeconomic Profiles of Native American Communities: Las Vegas Tribe

of Paiute Indians. NWPO-SE-040-91. MRDB: NA0023.

Socioeconomic data at the Las Vegas Colony were collected in 1987 and 1988 in a

house-to-house census and confirmed, or changed where necessary, in visits to the Colony in

1990 and 1991. Respondents were asked their opinion about available housing, economic

opportunities, and community services, and were given an opportunity to express concerns

about the proposed Yucca Mountain repository. Any socioeconomic impacts of the repository

on the Las Vegas Colony will be closely linked to those felt by the Las Vegas area in

general. Impacts on various aspects of Colony life are discussed. To date, these impacts have

been negligible. The respondents were in favor of economic development, but not at the


expense of the environment. They are concerned that the proposed repository threatens the

water supply and public health and safety in general.

Appendix A presents the results of the Risk Perception Survey revised for the Native

American Studies. Tabulations of the 1988 questionnaire data include socioeconomic profiles

and attitudes toward a nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain for Moapa, Las Vegas

Colony, and Pahrump.

10.4 Major Findings

The Native Americans categorically object to the use of the lands for a HLNW

repository (see also DOE findings from Native Americans for a similar position). The

strength and force of the opposition varies (young urban persons being slightly less

opposed), but some have been led to outwardly protest all nuclear activity at the NTS

in the past, and undoubtedly will continue to do so in the future. The Western

Shoshone National Council, an overarching governmental body with relationships to

many tribes, has been particularly active in overt opposition to nuclear testing and the

repository.

These survey responses also indicate that over 70 percent of the rural and urban

Native American residents oppose the Yucca Mountain project. They feel that it

cannot be built and operated safely and that the nuclear waste cannot be transported

safely to the site (at a margin of 5 to 1).

There is significant risk perception from a repository. More than 65 percent feel

strongly that the repository will have harmful effects on cultural resources at the site,

on their reservations and communities, and on them personally. They see high risks to

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Socio-Ciiltural: Native American 157

personal and family health, the potential of water pollution, violations of traditional

teaching about the treatment of the Earth, damage to the land, and air pollution.

Surveys conducted among Native American populations in Nye, Clark, and Inyo

counties in 1988, as well as general interviews, indicate that Native American people,

like the general population in this region, are quite concerned about the past effects of

both above-ground and underground nuclear testing at the NTS. They see themselves

as "downwinders" and as already having health problems derived from testing. They

also have strong feelings, derived from important cultural concerns, that water

contamination has occurred in the past and will be an inevitable by-product of the

Yucca Mountain waste repository.

There is concern over the potential transportation impacts. Three groups also reside

next to potential transportation corridors by either rail or highway-Duckwater,

Moapa and the Las Vegas Colony-and thus are at increased risk from transportation

hazards.

They do not expect significant economic benefits. When asked whether economic

well-being would be improved by the project, they replied negatively. Native

Americans feel that they have serious health care, employment, education and

training, housing, and transportation needs, but that these needs will not be properly

considered in any benefits from the repository. They note that they have not been

considered by the federal government program managers.

The Native American tribes in the immediate vicinity of the Yucca Mountain project

area are, for the most part, economically disadvantaged. The reservations and


communities in Nye, Lincoln, and Inyo counties are rural and isolated, and either lack

a land base or have land bases too small to support their populations by ranching or

other locally common means. A large number of people are unemployed,

underemployed, and/or are living below the poverty level. Educational levels have

improved in recent years, but without job opportunities in local communities, people

must leave to take advantage of their training.

Conditions on the urban and near-urban reservations in Clark County are better, but

local economic development is still a major priority. Educational levels are somewhat

higher, but unemployment and underemployment are still problems. The large

nonreservation population in Las Vegas seems to have yet higher educational levels

and to be better off economically (1980 US Census).

With few exceptions, Native American people in the region have never benefitted

economically from DOE activities, such as employment at the NTS, and would be

unlikely to do so from the repository unless specific quotas were enforced.

The already fragile economic situations of Native Americans could be damaged by a

general downturn in the region's urban and/or rural economic picture, a potentially

adverse condition that some Native Americans feel could occur due to repository

stigma effects.

The social fabric of urban and rural Native American life is made up of a network of

kinsmen as it was in the distant past. Extended families still form the primary

economic, social, and cultural support groups for most persons. Problems such as

alcoholism and drug abuse, which strike at this support system, are present in most of

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Socio-Cultural: Native American I59

the communities and are often tied to poverty, unemployment, and low educational

levels. Access to health care and counseling is inadequate in all but a few locations.

All of these conditions could be exacerbated by changes in economic conditions,

again, with rural reservations and communities tied to the fate of rural populations in

general, and urban to the urban areas.

The Native Americans do not trust the federal management of nuclear facilities. They

feel strongly that the federal government has not been honest with people about

potential dangers of the program.

Native American tribes in the area have unique governments. As independent

federally recognized entities, tribal governments have a role equivalent to states in

most federal undertakings. They also have a special status according to various

environmental and cultural protection acts, and in the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of

1982. To date, none of the tribes in the study area has been granted "affected Native

American tribe" status under the NWPA, although some have made inquiries. The

waste repository project has also intruded into the middle of a major campaign by the

Western Shoshone National Council, an overarching political entity made up of

representatives from many Western Shoshone tribes, to reclaim lands under the Treaty

of Ruby Valley of 1863. This has brought them and other tribal governmental entities

into direct conflict with DOE as well as other federal and state agencies. Because of

the unique governmental position of tribes, their interests are not likely to be well

protected or even properly represented in deliberations over the repository. They may

also come into conflict with neighboring local governments over differences in

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yitcca Mountain Socio-Cultural: Native American 160

positions regarding the repository, thus increasing their isolation from

intergovernmental interaction.

The Western Shoshone and Southern Paiute are persistent peoples who have occupied

this region for many generations. Genealogical research and oral histories tie them

directly to the lands in the project area, lands that their ancestors once hunted and

gathered. They have maintained feelings about these lands in spite of physical

separation due to NTS activities, and many still see themselves as responsible for the

land and for the remaining cultural resources (archaeological sites, foods and

medicines, water sources, burials, rock art, etc.), as well as for the Earth in general.

1 Most Native American respondents see unwanted disturbance of cultural resources as

the inevitable outcome of the Yucca Mountain project. Mitigation of archaeological

sites is seen by some as a marginally acceptable alternative, but they would prefer

that no disturbance take place at all. A number of people feel that the area has the

potential for a state park and should be preserved because of its cultural properties

and scenery.


Data on Native American communities should be updated. The existing baseline data

primarily covers the period up to September, 1988. Tribal governments have elected

new officials and new economic programs have been initiated.

The legal status of Western Shoshone land claims should be updated because more

recent legal decisions have been made.

State of Nevada Son'oeconornic Studies of Yucca Moirntain Socio-Cultural: Native American . 161

Information from the 1990 Census should be included in the Native American studies

databases.

Ethnographic and key informant interviews should address the effects of the several

cultural awareness programs that have involved some of the younger Native

Americans.

The repository risk perception and opinion and attitudes about the repository project

should be updated because a number of significant changes in public attitudes over the

past 4 or 5 years have occurred.

Some consideration should be given to collecting more information on the Las Vegas

urban population, which has expanded again according to the preliminary 1990

Census figures. No adequate baseline information on this urban Native American

population exists.


11.0 Case Studies by John Gewers, Latir Energy Consultants

The case studies were commissioned to provide a reference resource for the study

team. For the most part, these reports were on subjects that were not easily available in the

existing published literature and provided insights by researchers who had direct and

extensive experience with subject facilities. These case studies supplemented the extensive

library resources available to the study team. The existing documents and files include

information on such events as the Three Mile Island accident and its aftermath, Cherynoble,

the chemical plant accident at Bophal, India, the U.S. government reports and audits of the

nation's nuclear weapons complex and SuperFund sites, and the extensive published literature

on nuclear waste.24 The purpose of the commissioned case studies was to collect

socioeconomic information on facilities or events that had important analogies to some aspect

of the Yucca Mountain project.

11.1 Objectives

The case studies were carried out in several groupings that had different objectives.

Two case studies referred to examples of social amplification. The Goiania and Gorleben

accident studies report on relatively minor events whose consequences were amplified

through media intervention and other mechanisms. Two case studies in 1988 on the Waste

24See Frankena, F. and Frankena, J. (1991). Radioactive Waste as a Social and Political Issue: A Bibliography. AMS Press, New York. This bibliography lists 6,007 entries through 1990.

State of Nevada Socioecorzon~ic Studies of Yucca Mountain Case Studies . 163

Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and the Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility examined

siting efforts being undertaken by DOE. The Nevada Test Site (NTS) study in 1988

discussed the impact of the NTS on southern Nevada and explored some of the reasons for

Nevadan's wholly different degrees of acceptance of the NTS and the Yucca Mountain

repository.

Six case studies completed in 1992 addressed cases of the social impacts of nuclear

materials management and other incidents. Three cases (Hanford, Rocky Flats, and Fernald)

dealt with facilities managed by DOE where radiation contamination and releases were public

issues. An overview of the 1992 studies by W.R. Freudenburg provided a synthesis of the

general literature on the ways in which organizations entrusted with the management of

hazardous technologies have actually carried out their resp~nsibilities.~~

11.2 Methods

These case studies were carried out at different times with differing objectives and by

independent authors, which resulted in a variety of approaches to collecting, analyzing, and

reporting the information. Therefore, the Annotated Bibliography section below describes the

principal findings and methodologies for the case studies.

The case studies were intended to identify potential communities and/or incidents for

study by reviewing the literature on hazardous and nuclear facilities and identify researchers

2SSee Freudenburg, W. (May, 1992). "Trustworthiness and Institutional Performance: An Introduction to the Case Studies," in Social Impacts of Hazardous and Nuclear Facilities and Events: Implications for Nevada and the Yucca Mountain High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository. Carson City, NV: Nevada Nuclear Waste Project Office (NWPO-SE-045-92): pp. 1-32.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Moiinrain Case Studies . 164

who had already studied the selected facilities or incidents and who had earned reputations in

the academic community for their work. The analogous case studies effort was premised on

the assumption that these researchers had already developed a considerable literature about

specific facilities or incidents and that this literature had been reviewed by the scientific

community. These researchers were asked to further explicate the effects of such facilities or

incidents on the social, political, cultural, and economic conditions in affected communities

and populations, and to address the possible implications of their findings for Yucca

Mountain and Nevada communities.

Case studies are an effective way of considering how human beings respond to

problems and emergencies under a variety of conditions, and by analogy how they might

behave in response to accidents or unfortunate events in the context of a repository program.

One strategy for estimating future behavior is to directly ask people who they think they will

act if a given event or condition takes place. The scenarios used to describe these possible

events or conditions are postulated cases, which may exist at some point in the future.

However, there is considerable likelihood that the intended behaviors elicited in response to

these scenario cases will change at the point of actual behavior; a healthy allowance must be

made for this imperfect measure. Another strategy is to examine historical cases to see how

people behaved under various conditions similar to those that might occur in connection with

a repository. This approach has the problem of defining a suitable fit between the historical

case to that the analogy with the repository is apt. Neither of these strategies, used

independently, is likely to provide an exact prediction of human behavior toward repository

program events, but using them in combination-implementing the principle of

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Case Studies 165

triangulation-provides a higher level of confidence than can be attained by maintaining

effective separation of the strategies.


Petterson, J. (1988). Goiania Incident Case Study. MRDB: RP0013.

This document describes the social amplification process of a radiological accident

that occurred in Goiania, Brazil in September, 1987. A relatively minor event involving

exposure to radioactive materials in an abandoned cancer treatment center resulted in

stigmatization of the entire state's economy and population and severe disruption of economic

and social relations throughout the region. The role of the media in the social amplification

process is well documented in the study, as are physical, economic, social, and political

impacts of the event, and the efforts of federal, state, and local institutions to mitigate these

impacts. The author concludes that:

The release (or potential release) of a relatively small amount of radiation to the

environment may have minor effects in itself but will generate many socioeconomic

consequences because of public risk perception is involved.

w The role of the media is important in creating a high level of anxiety and fear, and

once this societal perception is established, it can become self-perpetuating.

w When perceptions of risk lead to stigmatization of people, places, or products, the

economic consequences can be extensive (e.g., on health care, tourism, conventions,

agricultural, marketing), at least in the short term.

Methodology. This study was based on field research in Brazil on two occasions, once

within 2 months of the incident and again 5 months later. Research methods included direct


interviews with participants and government officials and review of published and

unpublished information about the incident.

Peters, H., and Hennen, L. (1988). The Accident at Gorleben: A Case Study of Risk

Communication and Risk Amplijication in the FRG. MRDB: RP0033.

This document presents findings from a case study of an accident that occurred in

May 1987, in a pilot mine at Gorleben, West Germany, where the feasibility of a repository

for HLNW was being investigated. Although the accident happened during conventional

mining work and had nothing to do with radioactive waste, this event served as a signal of

possible future problems to come. The event also raised questions about the suitability of the

site for a nuclear repository and about the trustworthiness of government and private

institutions responsible for managing the risks of nuclear power and waste disposal. The

study demonstrates the effects of risk amplification that resulted from an otherwise

inconsequential accident. It shows that:

The perceived risk of a minor event may be amplified by its connections with a larger

political issue (i.e., nuclear waste disposal).

A minor event can drive broader issues up in the rank order of the national agenda,

thus amplifying the social relevance of those broader issues (i.e., nuclear power).

A minor event can alter the boundary conditions of communications concerning the

broader issues (i.e., after the accident it became easier for opponents of the project to

find an open ear for their arguments).

Methodology. This study involved field research in Germany to address questions of

risk amplification raised by the Nevada studies. The methodology included direct interviews

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Case Studies . 167

with representatives of key groups and institutions and analyses of papers and statements by

them, and a content analysis of mass media to evaluate the role of such representatives in

public communication.

Bums, W., R. Kasperson, 0. Renn, S. Emani, and P. Slovic (1990). Social Ampl@cation of

Risk: An Empirical Study. MRDB: RP0108.

See chapter 13 for a summary of this set of case studies.

Titus, A. (1988). NTS Case Study. MRDB: SC0003.

This document describes how the NTS affected the political, economic, social, and

cultural conditions of southern Nevada from 1951 to 1987. The discussion focusses on how

the Las Vegas gambling industry capitalized on atomic themes in promoting tourism during

the atmospheric testing in the early 1950s. The author notes widespread local support for the

NTS historically and even to a substantial degree currently. The report concludes with an

examination of the difference between the generally positive attitude that evolved toward the

NTS and the prevailing negative perception of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository. The

author concludes that:

The difference in Nevadans' attitudes toward the NTS and the potential repository at

Yucca Mountain have to do with historic economic dependencies on the NTS, which

do not now exist with respect to the repository, and with perceptions that weapons

testing makes a positive contribution to national defense, while waste disposal is only

helping commercial nuclear utilities outside Nevada. In addition, the establishment of

NTS at a time when the public was less knowledgeable about health effects and more


trusting of government took place in a totally different sociopolitical environment

from that affecting the current siting effort at Yucca Mountain.

Trust in DOE's management of the NTS eroded in the wake of revelations about

contamination from atmospheric testing.

Although there are signs of support for DOE'S claim that "The more you know (about

the repository), the better you'll like it," these views were attributed to growing

awareness of potential compensation benefits.

Methodology. This case study involved secondary research, including review of public

opinion polls, newspaper editorials, and legislative action. The author also reviewed studies

of the economic impacts of the NTS.

Fitzgerald, M., and McCabe, A. (1988). The U.S. Department of Energy's Attempt to Site

the Monitored Retrievable Storage Facility (MRS) in Tennessee 1985-1 98 7. MRDB:

RP00 17.

This report reviews the DOE'S attempt to site a Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS)

facility in Tennessee from 1985 to 1987. The study evaluates DOE's performance, the state's

performance, the quality of the state-federal interaction, the citizen participation process, the

media coverage, and the political events that led to the congressional decision to terminate

the Tennessee sites. The authors conclude that:

DOE made a serious mistake by adopting a "Decide, Announce, Defend" approach

that did not provide advance consultation with the affected parties.

DOE's past performance left a legacy of distrust which, even in the established

nuclear community of Oak Ridge, resulted in residual suspicions of DOE promises.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yiicca Mountain Case Studies . 169

Although DOE was willing to be generous with payments from the NWF, it was

reluctant to give state or local governments real power over the facility.

The prospect of considerable compensation was not enough to overcome state

concerns about health, safety, and the future economic development prospects of the

area.

Methodology. The research methods involved both primary and secondary sources.

The authors conducted in-depth personal interviews with 28 leading figures, monitored media

coverage, tracked relevant congressional hearings, and reviewed documentation provided by

agencies and groups involved in the case.

Cummings, R. (1988). New Mexico's Waste Isolation Pilot Project (WIPP): A Historical

Overview. MRDB: RP0016.

This document provides a historical overview of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

(WIPP) in New Mexico. As the nation's first repository, many aspects of WIPP's evolution

and development may be applicable to Yucca Mountain. This report focuses on major

technical issues, issues related to public confidence in DOE, the patterns of public reactions

to the WIPP project, and the successes and failures of the state and the DOE in dealing with

these reactions. The author notes that:

DOE's promise of state veto rights and of consultation and concurrence on WIPP led

to a loss of trust and efficacy when DOE implemented decisions unilaterally.

Confidence in DOE's management of the project was undermined by DOE's

reluctance to address safety issues involving brine pockets and shipping containers.

State of Nevada Socioeconortlic Studies of Yucca Mountain Case Studies . 170

Support for WIPP was a function of hard times and joblessness, the absence of

perceived land-use or resource conflicts, positive local leadership, and powerful

legislative support at the state and national level.

The promise of economic benefits projected for the WIPP was not always realized.

Ongoing monitoring of socioeconomic impacts is essential to enable the state and

communities to anticipate impacts rather than react to them.

Methodology. This study draws on previous socioeconomic research by the author and

on a review of newspaper articles, agency documents, and other published materials.

Carter, L., and Willard, W. (1992). Scope, Stakeholder Groups, and Impact Issues Raised by

the Proposed Hanford, Wmhington High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository Site.

MRDB: SE0014.

This paper identifies the diverse publics concerned with development of the Hanford

Nuclear Reservation as a potential site for a HLNW repository and explores reasons for

inclusion or exclusion of certain publics and the issues important to them. Special attention is

given to exploring why some publics and issues received attention early in the selection

process while others did not, and some of the longer-term consequences that followed from

these exclusionary choices. The authors address the potential consequences of developing a

repository on stakeholder groups, including discussion of product stigmatization and

downstreamer and downwinder effects.26 The authors conclude that:

26Downstreamer and downwinder effects refer to exposure to site contaminants that results from water and air patterns that carry contaminants from the site to other areas and populations.


More inclusive definitions of impacted areas, impact variables, and affected publics,

while more cumbersome in the short run, will ensure that important stakeholders are

not overlooked, and will avoid litigation, hostility, and loss of trust.

The potential for stigma associated with possible contamination effects of the

repository is a source of sensitivity for established industries like agriculture and

fisheries, and for growing industries like recreation, conventions, and retirement

communities. (Agricultural producers were so sensitive to possible damage to their

markets that they discouraged consumer-based research on contamination effects

altogether.)

Downwinders are especially sensitive to possible airborne contamination in the wake

of revelations about intentional releases of radioactive contaminants from DOE'S

Hanford Reservation. Such revelations have "undermined the remaining residual trust

in a number of groups" (p. 4).

Methodology. The methodological approach of this study was to draw on field

research carried out in 1986 on behalf of DOE and the Washington State Department of

Ecology. This research involved local informant interviews and review of public records,

followed by independent analyses and interpretations.

Lodwick, D. (1992). Rocky Flats, Colorado: A Case Study. MRDB: NV0038.

This case study is an analysis of interactions between the Rocky Flats plant in

Colorado and surrounding communities from 195 1 to 1991. The report traces the gradual

transition from full public trust and endorsement of the plant on national security and

economic grounds to increasing doubts about safety and demands by many for plant closure.


Community interactions are described over seven phases of plant history: site selection and

plant construction; establishment and normal development; beginning of controversy; open

door; protest and local influence; federal probes and loss of legitimacy; and cleanup. The

report identifies lessons about economic development benefits, environmental and safety

issues, loss of trust and legitimacy, and community response to trust. The author finds that:

Economic contributions to a region are salient in the initial phases of a project but as

risks become better understood by local residents, concerns about environmental and

health risks override the economic consideration. The conflict between economic

contributions and environmental concerns leads to social fragmentation, creating

corrosive communities.

At Rocky Flats, trust has not increased over time; in fact, it has clearly decreased.

DOE and its managers have lost their trustworthiness by underestimating or covering

up the extent of the hazard.

To enhance trust, the agency should be absolutely open and reveal the extent of the

risk. The likelihood of human technological errors should be openly acknowledged

and safety preparedness plans developed for workers and surrounding communities.

Risk-management should anticipate normal accidents (Perrow, 1984) rather than

claiming that things are under control and no problems exist.

Methodology. This case study is based on a content analysis of newspapers released

between 1951 and 1991. Most of the articles were drawn from Denver newspapers, plus

material from other newspapers and from community studies and activist publications. The

intent was to trace primary events, stakeholders, and the changing perceptions of the plant.


Hardert, R. (1992). Feed Materials Production Center, Fernald, Ohio: A Case Study.

MRDB: NV0037.

This report on the DOE Feed Materials Production Center located near Fernald,

Ohio, draws extensively on newspaper articles and other materials that are critical of DOE

management of the plant. Major topics discussed include a physical comparison of the Rocky

Flats and Fernald plants, potential nuclear exposure at Fernald, possible political deception at

Fernald, legal problems surrounding Fernald, lessons to be learned from Fernald that might

be applicable to Nevada, and community responses to exposure to hazardous wastes,

including the issues of trust and trustworthiness. The author finds that:

Communities near Fernald and Rocky Flats were supportive of the plants until off-site

contamination was discovered.

DOE and its managing contractors have been slow to acknowledge contamination

when it occurred, and revelations of secrecy involving public health problems have

caused public trust to deteriorate.

Hazardous or nuclear facilities should not be sited in or near communities.

Methodology. The methods employed for this study included participant observation

and interviews of those affected by possible exposure to radiation. Sources included the

Cincinnati Enquirer, DOE, and contractor documents.

Levine, A. (1992). Love Canal, 1978 to 1991: A Case Study of the Social Impact of

Hazardous Wastes. MRDB: RA0048.

This report on chemical contamination at Love Canal (near Niagara Falls, NY) is

directed to policy makers trying to anticipate what may happen if residential areas are

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Aicca Molrntcrin Case Studies 174

contaminated, if people living there find out about it, and if government agencies have to

address the problem. The report illustrates the dilemmas, problems, and issues that probably

will accompany any technological disaster. The author concludes that:

Regardless of the cause of the disaster or the history of the place and its people, there

will be diverse stakeholders with differing expectations, needs, goals, and

interpretations of events that occur, depending on their stake in the outcome of the

event.

Conflicts may arise over utilization of available resources, definition of problems, and

acceptable solutions. Obtaining scientific information about a technological disaster

may become highly politicized as choices are made about problem definition.

To minimize conflict, trust must be maintained among all stakeholders in the process.

Once trust has eroded between citizens and their governments, it is not only costly

and difficult to reestablish, but new social mechanisms to allow further progress to be

made may need to be created.

Cooperation is required at many levels and may be difficult to achieve when multiple

layers of government with overlapping jurisdictions or missions are involved in

solving environmental problems, or when scientists and professionals must collaborate

across disciplinary boundaries, or when scientists must interact with the media in a

highly publicized context.

Critical contingencies will arise that undermine planned solutions. It is safe to assume

that experts will vastly underestimate the efforts and resources required to solve

serious problems of environmental pollution.


Methodology. The methodology for this case study was based on earlier research and

publications by the author, who published a definitive work on Love Canal in 1982. Since

that time the field research has been continuously updated, and the author has published

several journal articles on her findings.

Kroll-Smith, J., and Couch, S. (1992). Social Impacts of Toxic Contamination of Hazardous

Wastes. MRDB: SC0025.

This report describes individual and social responses in three communities that

experienced toxic contamination: Centralia, PA, and two communities in the western United

States (unidentified for legal reasons). The authors describe individual and social responses

that appear to be common in cases of toxic contamination, and how they differ from natural

hazards. They consider three variables: duration, invisibility, and blame as central facets of

environmental pollution. The report establishes community profiles of affected populations

and examines the relationship between toxins, adaptation, and social change. The authors

conclude that:

Environmental contamination creates high stress because of uncertainty over the

nature and amount of danger, powerlessness to control the situation, and loss of trust

in the ability and intentions of others to provide support and protection from harm.

The ambiguous nature of harm leads to differing interpretations and beliefs about the

threats that create social conflict and disrupt community functions.

Social disruption and personal trauma may occur even without actual contamination if

local residents fear the possibility of eventual contamination and do not trust the

ability of responsible institutions to protect them from harm. This loss of trust occurs


because governments too often focus on technical responses to the hazard and

overlook social and human dimensions of the problem.

In the cases studied, increased knowledge about the nature of the risks led to greater

fear of the hazard, and increased contact with even the best-intentioned government

agencies led to diminished trust in government's ability to protect its citizens.

Because radiation hazards involve potential dangers that last a long time, are invisible,

and are produced by humans who will be blamed if anything goes wrong, similar

social responses could be expected if contamination were to occur at the proposed

Yucca Mountain site.

Methodology. This study draws on extensive field research in the three communities.

Some of this research was previously published in The Real Disaster is Above Ground: A

Mine Fire and Social Conflict (1990).

Edelstein, M. (1992). Mitigating Environmental Stigma and Loss of Trust in the Siting of

Hazardous Facilities. MRDB: RP012 1.

In this paper the constructs of trust and environmental stigma are analyzed and the

potential for their mitigation is assessed. Three case studies of hazardous waste sites in

Niagara Falls, NY, Orange County, NY, and Seattle, WA, are reviewed for their potential

relevance to mitigation theory. The first case study, involving the sixth CECOS hazardous

waste site in Niagara Falls, NY, illustrates how environmental stigma and distrust are

embedded in a community's eco-historical context. The study suggests that even when a

facility is sited in a virgin community without contamination experience, a new eco-historical


contest begins with the first announcement of the site and evolves through the siting,

construction, and operation of the facility. The author concludes that:

Certain hazardous contaminants, including nuclear waste, are subject to inherent

stigma that cannot be reduced through mitigation unless the contaminants themselves

are removed.

Community benefit packages or other forms of compensation and mitigation are

insufficient by themselves to induce pubic acceptance of hazardous facilities or to

significantly increase a community's willingness to forgive past contamination and

harm.

Distrust is a direct cause and consequence of stigma. As a human-caused

phenomenon, contamination from hazardous materials leads victims to attribute blame

for what has occurred, and to distrust those considered responsible. Failure of trusted

institutions to provide help or support also leads to distrust. Even the siting of

potentially hazardous facilities can lead to distrust, out of a sense of outrage at having

been selected for risk exposure. A relationship of trust cannot develop if the

understood intent of the relationship involves potential harm.

Distrust may not be accessible to mitigation because the very essence of trust-the

willingness to assume good intentions-may be absent. For this reason, a change in

responsible agencies will not, in itself, contribute to public trust.

Methodology. This report draws on previously published materials and field research

in three communities.


11.4 Major Findings

The analogous case studies provided findings on many themes important to the Yucca

Mountain socioeconomic study, and to the understanding of the potential effects of proposed

facilities that contain or handle hazardous materials. These reports and the cases they studied

were referenced by study team members in various documents prepared as part of the

socioeconomic studies of Yucca Mountain.

The major findings of the case studies have been in the following areas:

Social amplification of risk (Petterson, Peters). This work provides additional support

to the research on the social amplification of risk presented in chapter 13.

Trust and distrust of hazards managers (Hardert, Todwick, Carter-Willard, Titus).

These case studies reinforce the findings on the importance of trust and confidence in

management of hazardous processes and facilities. See chapters 8, 9, 10, 13, and 15

for study team work on risk, fairness and equity, and trust issues.

Need for effective participation by state and local representatives (Cummings,

Fitzgerald, Edelstein, Levine). These cases provide outside support for the need to

improve cooperation and consultation between federal agencies and the host states and

communities. See chapters 6, 8, 9, and 10.

Potential for psychosocial disruption resulting from management failures (Kroll-Smith

& Couch, Levine, Edelstein). The experience with community psychosocial impacts

shown in these cases supports the findings of analogous potential impacts in Nevada

communities and special populations. See chapters 8, 9, and 10.


11.5 Implications for Further Work

The case studies undertaken to date report on a broad range of waste management

technologies and types of affected communities. Such studies are helpful in understanding the

larger social context for research in regard to the Yucca Mountain repository. These cases

also provide important insights into the design and analyses of other research efforts, such as

the experimental and survey research that makes up an important part of the study team

work.

Future case studies should:

Examine the performance of organizations responsible for nuclear or hazardous waste

management, or the operations of potentially hazardous facilities and technologies, to

see how such experiences inform the HLNW management issues at Yucca Mountain.

Collect and analyze data and information on cases of community or state

stigmatization, especially those that have analogies to the tourist and visitor economy

in Nevada. These studies should analyze any attempted mitigation efforts whether

successful or not.

Address the issue of trust in hazard management by looking at cases where there has

been lost trust or where trust and confidence in the responsible agencies has been

maintained or increased.

Study communities with nuclear power plants where spent fuel is now stored and

where dry cask storage is in existence or proposed. Such case studies could collect

data on public perceptions, opposition to on-site storage, concerns about transportation

of HLNW as compared to on-site storage, and decommissioning issues. Level of


acceptability for on-site storage as compared to shipment to a single national

repository could be examined.

Focus on the potential to examine specific analogous aspects of case studies and

thereby provide a triangulation perspective to help mitigate possible shortcomings in

forecasting uncertain repository scenarios and in analyzing complex data on social-

cultural processes. Based on the work to date, a triangulation process appears to

present an opportunity for contributing methodological and substantive advances to the

research on potential impacts of Yucca Mountain.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Cue Studies . 181

12.0 Risk Assessment by Roger Kasperson, Clark University

High-level nuclear waste (HLNW) management involves a significant national system

designed to move, handle, and store wastes. The waste transportation system, involving truck

andlor rail shipments, will connect commercial and defense facilities that generate nuclear

wastes with the repository. A new generation of shipping casks will be constructed and

licensed. The repository will contain a complex handling system for unloading wastes from

the spent fuel carriers, and preparing and eventually placing them underground. These

pre-closure operations will continue for about 30 years. Once the repository is filled and

sealed, the wastes must be isolated from human contact for at least 10,000 years.

This waste management system inevitably poses potential risks for current and future

generations at the repository site and along waste transportation routes. The DOE has

undertaken an ambitious scientific program to identify and assess these potential risks.

Between 1986 and 1988, the Nevada NWPO undertook an independent review of the DOE

risk assessments to determine their scientific quality and to examine their implications for

Nevada. Reductions in funding have severely limited continuing this work to take account of

post-1988 contributions to the body of risk assessment work, although two studies were

completed during 1991-92 on the conduct of risk assessment work related to site suitability at

Yucca Mountain. They are summarized here.

The following discussion characterizes these reviews, methods used, principal

findings, and needed further work.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountuin Risk Assessnlent . 182

12.1 Objectives

The risk analysis review objectives were:

To review the quality and completeness of DOE'S risk assessment work, related

databases, and supporting technical analyses in light of the broader literature in the

risk assessment field.

To model conceptually the causal structure of risk in the major risk areas, identifying

the probabilities of potential events, their exposure pathways, and the range of

potential consequences.

To characterize, in terms appropriate to socioeconomic analysis and management

options, the major risks and risk events confronting the State of Nevada from the

location of a HLNW repository at Yucca Mountain.

To identify and assess the risk issues that, either because of their magnitude,

characteristics, or their present state of understanding, should receive further attention

from Nevada officials and studies.

To assess the risk monitoring and management system proposed by DOE in light of

the above reviews and the range of options available, suggesting the impacts of the

management system chosen and management issues that should be considered by

Nevada.

To examine the implications of how questions have been framed for the adequacy of

assessment results.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Risk Assessment 183

12.2 Methods

The review of DOE'S risk assessment work conducted by 1988 and the frameworks

used by DOE for assessing early site suitability of Yucca Mountain involved:

Assembling the relevant technical literature and databases relating to each major type

of risk. These risks specifically include DOE risk assessments (e.g., Generic

Environmental Impact Statement, all site-specific environmental assessments, and

major generic risk analyses); supporting technical studies (e.g., Office of Nuclear

Waste Isolation technical reports, Sandia Laboratories, and Oak Ridge National

Laboratory studies); other relevant experience (Swedish KBS studies, National

Academy of Sciences reports, German Entsortgung work, etc.); and the broader

literature.

Reviewing the technical quality of DOE risk assessments in light of the overall

database by examining the appropriateness of underlying assumptions; the adequacy of

the scope of assessment and the risk scenarios identified; the handling of

uncertainties, unforeseen events, and sensitivity analyses; gaps in knowledge; and the

overall coherence of the assessment.

Applying the risk "causal structure" model to each of the five risk categories. Use of

this model has involved elaboration of the stages (choice of technology, events,

releases, exposure, and consequences) by which hazards develop. At each stage, the

adequacy of knowledge, as indicated by the database and technical studies, has been

assessed. What this model does, in essence, is provide a logical and systematic

structure for the review procedure.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Risk Assessment . 184

Characterizing the risks and risk events involves the reconfiguration of data, either

explicit or implicit in the database, into new analytical categories that have direct

relevance to socioeconomic analysis. An example is the decomposition of aggregate

risk data to make clear the distribution of risk geographically and among generations.

Technical risk assessments often fail to address issues of risk important for social

analysis.

Evaluating the adequacy of the methodological framework used in assessing early site

suitability.

The reviews specifically avoid the formidable task of conducting a full independent

analysis of the hazards. Rather, the results and procedures of DOE'S risk work are assessed

in terms of three major conceptual models-a model of hazard and associated hazard control

opportunities, a model of hazard management, and a taxonomy of technological hazards.

Taken together, these models present a sound set of approaches for conducting the review.


Emel, J., R. Kasperson, R. Goble, and 0. Renn. (1988). Post-closure Risks at the Proposed

Yucca Mountain Repository: A Review of Methodological and Technical Issues.

MRDB: RA0009.

This report summarizes and critiques the risk analysis methodology used by the DOE

in the draft Site Characterization plan" and related documents. Major technical problems

"Site characterization involves research to determine if a site is suitable for development as a repository. The site characterization studies would serve as the data for licensing and permitting repository construction and operation.


associated with the Yucca Mountain site are identified and their implications for the prospects

for long-term isolation of the wastes from the biosphere are assessed. The report concludes

with a specification of decision criteria to guide the design of precautionary measures for

unexpected and unforeseen events that do not require estimates of the probabilities of specific

events.

Goble, R., D. Golding, and R. Kasperson. (1988). Potential Retrieval of Radioactive Wastes

at the Proposed Yucca Mountain Repository: A Preliminary Review of Risk Issues.

MRDB: RA0010.

A review of DOE-sponsored research on the potential risks of retrieving wastes at the

proposed repository. The report describes possible retrieval procedures and identifies

potential risks to workers, nearby publics, and the environment. Little in-depth study had

been done at the time of review and thus the state of understanding is inadequate.

Kasperson, R., R. Emel, J. Goble, R. Kasperson, and 0. Renn. (1987). Summary and

Preliminary Identijication of Risk Assessment Issues (Appendix A.2.5) in First Year

Socioeconomic Progress Report. MRDB: RA0005.

This summary reports the major findings of the first-stage project reviews of

DOE-sponsored risk assessment, notably the results of the preliminary reviews of site

characterization, pre-closure, and transportation risks. This review found that DOE-

sponsored work was uneven and sometimes incomplete, that low-probability, interactive risks

had not been fully assessed, and that insufficient attention had been given to human error,

quality assurance failures, and acts of sabotage and terrorism.


Kasperson, R., J. Emel, R. Goble, J. Kasperson, and 0. Renn. (1987). Evaluation of Site

Characterization Risks (Appendix A. 2.2) in First Year Socioeconomic Progress

Report. MRDB: RA0002.

This preliminary review finds that DOE's assessment has inadequately conceptualized

site characterization risks, failed to assess the social contributors to and ramifications from

risk events, given insufficient attention to interactive risks, and made only limited use of

modern probabilistic risk analysis techniques. Nonetheless, the authors conclude that the

public health and environmental risks associated with site characterization are not likely to be

large.

Kasperson, R., R. Emel, J. Goble, R. Kasperson, and 0. Renn. (1987). Evaluation of

Pre-closure Risk (Appendix A. 2.3) in First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report.

MRDB: RA0003.

This report reviews DOE-sponsored risk research on pre-closure risks and finds

significant ambiguities concerning DOE's specification of pre-closure operations. At the time

of review, DOE had not adequately analyzed pre-closure risks to provide a firm

understanding of potential accidents and their radiological consequences, or their overall

contribution to waste management risks. Fuller assessments were needed incorporating

additional event tree modelling, as well as detailed analyses of external events, human error,

and sabotage.


Kasperson, R., J. Emel, R. Goble, J. Kasperson, and 0. Renn. (1987). Nuclear Waste

System Risks at the Proposed Yucca Mountain Repository (Appendix A.2.1) in First

Year Socioeconomic Progress Report. MRDB: RA000 1.

A summary of the reviews of DOE's risk research conducted during the first stage of

the project. A conceptual framework for reviewing risk research is presented and five major

risk clusters (site characterization, transportation, pre-closure operations, post-closure, and

retrieval) are identified. Preliminary assessments are presented of the adequacy and major

problems associated with DOE studies of three of these risk bundles: site characterization,

pre-closure operations, and transportation.

Schrader-Frechette, K. (1992). Expert Judgment in Assessing RADWASTE Risk: What

Nevadans Should Know About Yucca Mountain. MRDB: RA0049.

This study evaluates instances of methodological value judgments and inferences in

DOE's risk work on the proposed repository. The author finds that questionable

methodological value judgments and inferences were made, as had been done in similar work

for other radiation-related facilities, and that the risk conclusions of some Yucca Mountain

analyses are, at best, uncertain. To improve the scientific methodology of the Yucca

Mountain risk work, the author recommends that assessors admit the methodological

uncertainties in their work and attempt to take account of probabilistic bias, human error,

inappropriate use of probabilistic language, social amplification of risk,28 and the lack of

public trust in the DOE.

28A brief description of the social amplification of risk is presented in chapter 14.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mo~intain Risk Assessment . 188

Schrader-Frechette, K. (1992). Expert Judgment and the Frame Problem: Analysis of the

Early Site Suitability Evaluation (ESSE) for the Proposed Yucca Mountain Site.

NWPO-SE-053-92. MRDB: RA0056.

This study reviews the methodological frameworks used by the DOE in addressing the

suitability of the Yucca Mountain site. Six important frame questions and four significant

empirical conclusions associated with DOE'S early site suitability evaluation are examined.

The author finds that a number of conclusions appear to rely on deductively involved

inferences and that assessors did not use adequate inductive or retroductive data to support

conclusions. The author concludes that there are substantial reasons to doubt both the basic

methodology employed and its specific empirical conclusions.

12.4 Major Findings

Site characterization risks: The initial activities designed to characterize the Yucca

Mountain site are not risk-free, although they do not pose the level of public health

risk of subsequent stages of repository development and operation. In particular, test

drilling and underground studies pose some limited environmental risks, while

operational and transportation accidents present other risk possibilities. These risks,

and the potential presence of limited amounts of tracers or experimental materials,

might trigger events that affect public perceptions and amplify broader social impacts.

Transportation risks: Transportation risks require careful analysis for several reasons.

Only recently has planning of the nuclear waste transportation system and logistics

received detailed attention by DOE. Because transportation to the Yucca Mountain

site may be either by rail or truck and because these modes involve different risks,

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Morintain Risk Assessment 189

the choice of modal transport is significant. Concerns have been raised about

radioactive waste canisters, including quality assurance deficiencies, undue reliance on

cask integrity, inadequate regulatory inspection and implementation, burdens on state

emergency-response capabilities, and limitations in the design of tests for assessing

cask performance. Furthermore, the database on low probability to severe accident

events is limited (particularly for rail) so that uncertainties exist in estimating this set

of risks. Even if serious accidents with radioactive releases do not occur, less serious

incidents may nonetheless have important and potentially far-reaching repercussions

on gaming, local business, and public response. Only partial probabilistic assessments

of accidents had been made by 1988, and extremely difficult problems had to be

resolved before any attempt to perform a full comprehensive risk assessment for

transportation accidents could occur.

m e RADTRAN ZZZ model: The RADTRAN I11 model is a valuable and promising

attempt to model the health hazards associated with transporting radioactive material.

The incident-free analysis is far more convincing than the accident assessment, which

lacks the inclusion of a post-accident analysis. In addition, the model frequently rests

on implausible assumptions that detract from its usefulness. It is also cumbersome to

use and extremely resource intensive. A thorough revision was still necessary in 1988

to make the model a valid and reliable tool for decision makers and risk analysts.

Repository pre-closure risks:Accidents will certainly occur in pre-closure activities at

the repository during both the construction and operation phases. Construction risks

are apt to resemble those of other large industrial and mining operations, because


radiological materials will not be present. During pre-closure operations particularly

close attention should be paid to accidents involving the potential for radioactive

releases, resulting in exposure of workers and the public. Various accident scenarios

have been identified, but it is important to ensure that these scenarios embrace the full

range of possible accidents. Potential radioactive releases must also be related to local

weather conditions to assess whether the projected off-site risks are sufficiently

conservative.

Repository post-closure risks: The long-term risks posed by the repository depend

heavily on the adequacy of the engineered and geologic barriers. These risks include

both the period of so-called fission-product hazard, extending perhaps 500-700 years

into the future, and the much longer term actinide-dominated hazard period continuing

for thousands of years into the future. The fact that both nearby and distant future

generations face risks raises important questions of equity that will affect planning for

mitigation and compensation.

Retrieval risk: It is required that wastes be retrievable for 50 years after closure of

the repository. Retrieval, if it proves necessary, would pose risks to workers, to

nearby publics, and (perhaps) to the environment. These risks had received only

limited attention by 1988 and need further assessment.

The conduct of risk assessment: Risk analysis is a comprehensive group of

methodologies that can address all five risk clusters. The methods are

time-consuming, costly, and demanding of technical expertise. In practice, risk

assessments performed until 1988 under the auspices of DOE, including the


assessment of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository, tended to concentrate almost

exclusively on short- and long-term health impacts on the public. For the State of

Nevada to extract the maximum benefit from the substantial amount of work

performed in the DOE risk assessment without independently repeating this work

involves two equally important needs. One is for Nevada to have a full independent

review of the soundness and comprehensiveness of the analysis for potential health

impacts, with additions or corrections as needed. The second is for the analysis to be

sufficiently disaggregated and sufficiently sensitive to broader effects to permit

assessments of the risks and opportunities for preventing or mitigating related

socioeconomic harms.

Overall adequacy: The assessment of risks conducted by the DOE by 1988 was

uneven and sometimes incomplete, most notably in its inadequate conceptualization of

the risk problems; its failure to assess the social contributors to and ramifications of

risk and risk events; its uneven attention to low-probability, interactive risks; its

failure to give sufficient attention to human error, quality-assurance failures, and acts

of sabotage and terrorism; and the lack of a comprehensive systems study that

interrelates and compares the major types of risk associated with characterizing

candidate sites and developing and operating a HLNW repository.

Regulatory compliance: Large uncertainties remain in DOE'S research program for

characterizing the post-closure risks associated with the proposed Yucca Mountain

repository. Fundamental problems remain in removing these uncertainties, and there


is a major question as to whether the repository, as currently planned, can meet

regulatory requirements for long-term isolation of the wastes from the biosphere.

Human factors: Risk studies have not devoted sufficient attention to the issues of

human error, quality assurance failures, and intentional acts to disrupt the

transportation, handling, and disposal of high-level radioactive wastes, all of which

could initiate events and subsystem and system failure, often with probabilities

difficult or impossible to estimate. The subsequent review of the conduct of risk

assessment in 1991 found a continuing neglect of human error as a risk contributor.

Narrowness of assessment: The most striking weakness of DOE risk assessments for

the proposed Yucca Mountain repository by 1988 was their failure to address the

social amplification of risk. The interaction between risk and risk events on the one

hand and social structures on the other carries substantial potential for producing

adverse social and economic impacts in Nevada. It is certain that operational accidents

will happen during site characterization, waste transportation, and pre-closure

activities. High public concern, organized opposition, and intense media attention

might well amplify minor risk events or management burdens.

Flawedfiameworks: DOE'S early conclusions concerning the site suitability of Yucca

Mountain sometimes rely on deductively invalid inferences. The most serious of these

flawed frameworks arises from the use of a two-valued logic not normally employed

in science. This logic requires that analysts evaluate site suitability in terms of only

two options-that the site is either suitable or unsuitable. A third option-that the data

are currently inadequate to assess site suitability or that site suitability is currently


uncertain-is not allowed. Such a methodology creates a situation in which if analysts

find no disqualifying condition, then the failure to do so produces an assumption of

suitability.


As of 1988, the state of accomplished risk assessment work suggested several high

priority needs for further work. They are:

A comprehensive systems study should be conducted comparing all the significant risk

components involved in characterizing, developing, operating, and closing a HLNW

repository. Such a systems study is essential for prioritizing risk issues and for

developing an integrated and effective risk management system.

A series of studies is needed that disaggregates risk in ways that clarify the social and

economic effects likely to be associated with nuclear waste management. Such

disaggregation should give particular attention to intergenerational equity and the

association of risk events with the social amplification of risk at the repository site

and along transport corridors leading to the site.

A comprehensive uncertainty analysis is needed to enumerate the major uncertainties

in the current state of knowledge regarding the five major risk bundles. This analysis

should discriminate between uncertainties that can be quantified and those that cannot.

It should also appraise the work needed to remove or reduce the uncertainties and the

time frame implications.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Risk Assessment 194

By 1988 very little work had focused on risks likely to be associated with

interventions to repair the repository or to retrieve the wastes. A significant effort in

this area is needed.

While Nevada has been able to conduct some scientific and technical oversight of

DOE'S research work related to nuclear waste management, the series of independent

reviews of the state of knowledge on the five major risk clusters was completed

nearly 5 years ago. A full, systematic independent review of the full body of

DOE-sponsored risk work is a pressing need.


13.0 Risk Perception and Behavior by Paul Slovic, Decision Research and James Flynn, Decision Research

The selection of Yucca Mountain as a potential site for the nation's first high-level

nuclear waste (HLNW) repository presents the State of Nevada with difficult planning and

policy decisions. Measuring the traditional socioeconomic impacts of a massive construction

project is itself a challenging task, but these impacts may be secondary to those induced by

people's perceptions of the risks associated with the repository. The risk perception and

behavior studies were directed at understanding how basic elements of human decision

making might lead to behaviors that could affect Nevada and its residents.

Modern technological hazards affect people's responses to places, products, and the

technologies through many complex social, cultural, political, and economic pathways.

Certain types of hazards, such as those associated with nuclear technologies, activities, and

facilities, appear to have the potential to color, in a negative way, images people have of

places, thereby adversely influencing perceptions and behaviors that would otherwise be

favorable toward such places. In the case of Nevada, these negative images might affect

people outside the state making decisions about whether to visit or vacation in Nevada, move

to the state for jobs or retirement, or make investments in the state.

Assessment of these effects is important to the State of Nevada, which needs to know

what adverse economic impacts might be expected from the site characterization process and

selection of Yucca Mountain for the repository. Information about economic impacts may be

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Risk Perception and Behavior . 196

relevant to the state's final position on the selection decision itself. Moreover, such

information is vital for decisions about compensation and mitigation.

13.1 Objectives

The goal of the socioeconomic study team was to increase the understanding of how a

repository might affect individual and group decisions important to Nevada. A wide range of

studies was designed to measure public perceptions of the risks associated with a HLNW

repository and to evaluate the potential effects of adverse perceptions.

Special attention was given to the question of whether the perceived risks associated

with the repository would produce adverse economic effects on the Las Vegas

metropolitan area and state economy. These studies focused on potential impacts from

a reduction in the number of short-term visits to the state by vacationers and

convention-goers, effects on long-term residents (e.g., reduced immigration of

retirees), and effects on economic development, in particular an inability to attract

new businesses to the region.

At the start of this research project, there were no well-established methods for

assessing risk-induced behaviors and their impacts. The objective of this work,

therefore, was to develop the theory and methods needed to measure, monitor, and

forecast these important behaviors and impacts.

13.2 Methods

The research began with reviews of the scientific literature and content analyses of

media reports. Focus groups conducted at several sites in Nevada and in other states

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Risk Perception and Behavior 197

elicited perceptions and attitudes toward the repository in response to open-ended

questions. Experiments were conducted with college students to test and refine data

collection methods and techniques.

Primary and secondary data collection techniques were employed to provide the

information bases necessary for the analyses and reports. Survey research, key

informant interviews, participant observation, findings from expert evaluation groups,

and the development of databases from secondary sources (e.g., newspaper files in the

case of studies in the social amplification of risk) were included.

Analyses of information and data relied on standard quantitative and qualitative

techniques and procedures.

The application of methods to each category of risk perception and behavior studies is

discussed briefly in the annotations sections below.

13.3 Annotated Bibliography of Study Reports, and

13.4 Major Findings

The studies of risk perception and behavior have been divided into three categories

for purposes of this Annotated Guide. The three categories are: Risk Perceptions and

Intended Behaviors; Risk Perceptions, Images, and Behavior; and The Social Amplification

of Risk. These are not exclusive categories but are intended to group together studies and

reports that have common elements and approaches; in the actual research program there was

much interaction and overlap between the studies, based on a coordinated effort by the study

team. The following section has been organized to make the presentation of these studies as

coherent and useful to the reader as possible. This results in a format for the following


section, which combines the annotated bibliographies and the major findings in a way

different from the other chapters.

Studies in Risk Perceptions and Intended Behaviors

Slovic, P., and N. Kraus. (1986). Inventory of Concern and Issues. MRDB: RP0002.

Slovic, P., N. Kraus, W. Desvousges, H. Kunreuther, R. Kasperson, M. Greenwood, W.

Schulze, and G. McClelland. (1987). Risk Perception, Risk-Induced Behavior &

Potential Adverse Economic Impacts From a Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

(Appendix A. 2.6) in First Year Socioeconomic Progress Report. MRDB: RP0001.

Kunreuther, H., P. Slovic, J. Nigg, and W. Desvousges. (1987). Final Report: Risk

Perception Telephone Survey. MRDB: RP0003.

The 1987 national survey collected data on public risk perceptions from a national

repository program, statements of possible behavioral responses over a wide variety of

conditions, evaluations of the role and potential for compensation and mitigation, and

information on activities that might result in economic impacts due to location of a repository

at Yucca Mountain. High degrees of concern and perceived risk were recorded and

respondents stated that a repository and its accompanying activities would influence their

behavior in ways that could have serious adverse effects on the economy of a region or state

where such a facility was located.

Kunreuther, H., D. Easterling, and P. Kleindorfer. (1988). The Convention Planning

Process: Potential Impacts of a Repository in Nevada. NWPO-SE-02 1-89. MRDB :

RP0038.


Easterling, D., and H. Kunreuther. (1990). The Vulnerability of the Convention Industry to

the Siting of a High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository. NWPO-SE-031-90. MRDB:

RP0106.

Two surveys were conducted to assess the potential impact of a repository on the Las

Vegas convention industry-one involving convention planners and the other involving

convention attenders. The first survey presented a set of repository scenarios to 153 planners

who had scheduled a convention for Las Vegas, and asked whether Las Vegas would still be

selected as the host city. This provided a direct test of whether the repository would reduce

the number of conventions held in Las Vegas. The second survey tested the potential impact

using an indirect methodology. Six hundred individuals who belonged to national associations

were asked to report on their attendance at conventions and to provide images and risk

ratings for convention cities. If a HLNW repository were to reduce attendance at Las Vegas

conventions, then one should observe a negative relationship between convention attendance

and the host city's perceived risk and/or a positive relationship between attendance and

image. Both relationships were documented in this study. The attenders survey also found

that individuals are more apt to change their convention plans in response to a HLNW

repository than for any other noxious facility.

Easterling, D., V. Morwitz, and H. Kunreuther. (1990). Estimating the Economic Impact of

a Repository From Scenario-Based Surveys: Models of the Relation of Stated Intent to

Actual Behavior. NWPO-SE-035-90. MRDB: RP0095.

A forecasting model (an extension of a marketing model-Morrison's beta-binomial

model) was developed to evaluate and translate a distribution of stated intent scores into a

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yiicca Mountain Risk Perception and Behavior 200

range of possible outcomes, that is, actual behavior. In applying the model to the convention

planner data, it was estimated that Las Vegas could lose some conventions immediately

following the opening of the repository, and there was potential for greater losses if the

repository were subject to a series of mishaps accompanied by intense media coverage.

Flynn, J., W. Burns, P. Slovic, and C.K. Mertz. (1991). Development of a Structural Model

to Analyze Public Opinion on a High-Level Radioactive Waste Facility. Prepared for

1991 International High-Level Radioactive Waste Management Conference, Las

Vegas, Nevada. MRDB: RPO110.

Flynn, J., C.K. Mertz, P. Slovic, and W. Burns. (1991). A Structural Model Analysis of

Public Opposition to a High-Level Radioactive Waste Facility. NWPO-SE-044-91.

MRDB: RP0123.

The 1989 statewide survey of Nevada residents was used to develop and test a

structural model of the relationship between perceptions of risk, trust in risk management,

and potential economic impacts of the current repository program, using a confirmatory

multivariate method known as covariance structure analysis.29 The results indicated that, for a

statewide sample, perceptions of potential economic benefits do not play a significant role in

predicting support or opposition to the repository program. On the other hand, risk

perceptions and the level of trust in repository management were closely related to each other

and to support for or opposition to the Yucca Mountain project. Trust directly influenced risk

2qhe 1989 Nevada State Telephone Survey is discussed in chapter 7.


perceptions which, in turn, had a direct effect on the attitude toward the repository, and an

indirect effect through perceived stigma effects.

Greenwood, M., G . McClelland, and W. Schulze. (1988). The Effects of Perceptions of

Hazardous Waste on Migration. MRDB: RP0083.

This report discusses the results of experiments designed to document the ways in

which people weigh and combine information about cities when deciding whether or not to

move to those cities. A computer program was developed to trace the decision process of

subjects in an experimental, laboratory setting. Testing was conducted in 1988 and again in

1989. The subjects were asked to sift through a large quantity of information about

alternative areas to which they might be interested in migrating and then to choose a

preferred location.

Maior Findings: Risk Perce~tions and Intended Behaviors

People perceive the potential risks from a HLNW repository to be serious, the

likelihood of accidents high, and the character of the risks to be dreaded by those

living nearby. They believe that shipping and handling HLNW, and both interim and

long-term storage, are likely to result in accidents and potential exposure to

radioactivity. Air and water are seen as potential pathways to human exposure, as is

the possibility that future generations might dig into the repository. The risks are seen

to apply to residents living near a repository and along its transportation routes, and

to future generations. Risk perceptions are similar for respondents in both the

National and Nevada surveys.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Molintain Risk Perception and Behavior 8 202

The public attitudes toward a HLNW repository are correlated with a number of

perceptions, including the perceived seriousness of risks, trust in the program and

project managers and proponents, issues of equity and fairness, and potential

economic, community, and social effects. These factors appear to be important for

respondents in the national, regional (Phoenix and southern California), and Nevada

surveys. In all cases, the surveys record a strong aversion to siting HLNW facilities.

National, regional, and in-state telephone surveys revealed that a majority of all

respondents (nationally, in the southwest, and in Nevada) think that the HLNW

repository would make an area a less desirable place to live-either for retiring or

starting a new business. In the national survey, a majority believed that a repository

would also make an area a less desirable place to take a vacation. Shorter convention

trips were the least affected. Retirement decisions were also strongly influenced. For

example, a majority of respondents in the National survey said they would pay higher

housing costs-in some cases, agreeing to $3,000 a year-to retire in an area away

from the repository.

The survey data collected during 1987-1991 document a profound lack of trust in the

scientific, governmental, and industrial managers of nuclear waste technologies. This

distrust is correlated with beliefs that a nuclear waste repository poses high and

unacceptable degrees of risk. Other cases support findings related to the public

concern with trust and confidence in hazards managers (see chapter 11).

Convention planners are averse to holding a convention in a city near a HLNW

repository. Even under a benign scenario, one third of the respondents in the planner

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of fiicca Mountain Risk Perception and Behavior 8 203

survey reduced their preference for Las Vegas. This figure increased when planners

were presented with scenarios in which the repository program experienced a series of

accidents or events.

A HLNW repository would reduce the propensity to attend a convention. One fourth

(25 percent) of the attenders sampled reported they would not attend a convention if a

repository were located 100 miles away, compared to only 1 percent who would avoid

a city near a prison.

Trust and confidence in repository management was highly correlated with

perceptions of risk from the HLNW program. A structural model analysis of 1989

Nevada State survey data suggests that lack of trust increases risk perceptions and

opposition to the repository program.

Experimental studies of the psychological processes underlying migration decisions

found that younger people were particularly likely to attend to and give weight to

technological hazards associated with a city. These studies provided evidence that

locating a nuclear waste repository near a popular city influences people to choose

another location when seeking work.

Women reported higher risks perceptions of a repository than did men. These findings

are similar to those reported for many technological and societal hazards. Study of sex

differences in risk perceptions is continuing.

Studies of Risk Perceptions. Images, and Behavior

Slovic, P. (1988). Preliminary Findings: Tourism and Migration Imagery Survey. MRDB:

RP0012.


Slovic, P., M. Layman, N. Kraus, J. Chalmers, G . Gesell, and J. Flynn. (1989). Perceived

Risk, Stigma, and Potential Economic Impacts of a High-Level Nuclear Waste

Repository in Nevada. NWPO-SE-023-89. MRDB: RP0105.

Slovic, P., M. Layman, and J. Flynn. (1990). What Comes to Mind When You Hear the

Words "Nuclear Waste Repository " ? A Study of 10,000 Images. NWPO-SE-028-90.

MRDB: RP0105.

Slovic, P., M. Layman, and J, Flynn. (1990). Images of a Place and Vacation Preferences:

Implications of the 1989 Surveys for Assessing the Economic Impacts of a Nuclear

Waste Repository in Nevada. NWPO-SE-030-90. MRDB: RP0103.

Slovic, P., M. Layman, and J. Flynn. (1991). Risk Perception, Trust, and Nuclear Waste:

Lessons from Yucca Mountain. MRDB : RP0 1 18.

The studies in risk perception, imagery, and behavior were designed to demonstrate

the concept of environmental imagery and show how it can be measured; assess the

relationship between imagery and choice behavior; and describe economic impacts that might

occur as a result of altered images and choices.

These studies employed survey research methods to assess public attitudes,

perceptions, and images associated with cities, states, and a nuclear waste repository. The

collection of images was accomplished by asking respondents for word associations for places

(cities and states) and for an "underground nuclear waste repository." Analyses of the data

show that people have affectively laden images of places and these images contribute to the

ability to predict choices of places for vacations, relocation, and investment. In the case of

the 1988 Phoenix survey and a re-interview of some of the same respondents in 1989, it was


found that images of places obtained in 1988 could significantly predict vacation decisions

made during the subsequent 18 months. For Nevada residents, images were also related to

risk perceptions and to support or opposition to the Yucca Mountain repository.

Major Findings: Risk Perceptions. Images. and Behavior

Results from the studies of stigma and imagery provided indirect evidence that a

repository could have an adverse impact on Nevada's tourism economy. First, a

number of individuals associate "special" facilities with the places they are located.

For example, subjects in a number of surveys mentioned the nuclear-weapons test site

(or related nuclear imagery) when they thought of Nevada. This suggests that the

repository might also become associated with Nevada and/or Las Vegas if it is located

at Yucca Mountain. Second, the thought of a nuclear-waste storage facility

consistently evokes extremely negative imagery. Third, the presence of negative

imagery has a dampening effect on a person's propensity to visit a place. Respondents

reported lower preferences for vacationing, attending conventions, moving, or starting

a business when the target place had lower imagery scores. Fourth, the presence of

nuclear-related imagery produced a much lower preference for Nevada as a vacation

site.

The development of the Yucca Mountain repository will, in effect, force Nevadans to

gamble with their future economy. The nature of that gamble cannot be specified

precisely, but it appears to include credible possibilities (with unknown probabilities)

of substantial losses to the visitor economy, the migrant economy, and the business

economy.

State of Nevada Socioecononuc Studies of Yucca Mountain Risk Perception and Behavior . 206

The behavioral processes described as possible response to intense negative imagery

appear relevant as well to the social impact assessment of any proposed facility that

produces, uses, transports, or disposes of hazardous materials.

Studies concern in^ the Social Amplification of Risk

Kasperson, R., 0. Renn, P. Slovic, H. Brown, J. Emel, R. Goble, J. Kasperson, and S.

Ratick. (1988). 172e Social AmpliJication of Risk: A Conceptual Framework. MRDB:

RP0063.

Burns, W., R. Kasperson, J. Kasperson, 0. Renn, S. Emani, and P. Slovic. (1990). Social

Amplijication of Risk: An Empirical Study. NWPO-SE-027-90. MRDB: RP0 108.

The first of these papers presents the theoretical framework labeled "the social

amplification of risk," which accounts for the role of the media in presenting information

about technological hazards to the public. This framework describes the conditions that allow

apparently small or modest risk events, such as a radiological accident with few deaths,

injuries, or property losses, to result in major social, political, and economic impacts. The

second tests the theory by analyzing data obtained from 108 hazard events. This framework

describes how signals of potential harm are presented through the news media, cultural

groups, interpersonal networks, and other ways, leading to strong, adverse behavioral

responses, which, in turn, result in secondary and tertiary effects in an expanding circle of

impacts. The framework outlines the elements and linkages in the process, showing how

events causing only small amounts of direct damage can still lead to massive indirect

impacts. Empirical studies demonstrated the central importance of signals in triggering


socioeconomic and sociopolitical impacts. Signals pertinent to the competence of hazard

managers were especially powerful in producing impacts.

Maior Findings: Social Am~lification of RispO

The findings of research to date suggest that focusing solely on the probability and

magnitude of physical consequences may greatly underestimate the actual

socioeconomic impact of an event. A full and complete understanding of the role of

public risk perceptions and behaviors must account for the effects of communication

processes if accurate estimates are to be made for the future impacts from a HLNW

repository program.

A high degree of "rationality" is apparent in how society responds to hazard events.

The amount of press coverage is roughly proportional to the magnitude of direct,

physical consequences; risk perception appears to incorporate extent of human

exposure as well as risk management performance; and extent of exposure, media

coverage, and characteristics of risk perception all appear to enter into social group

and individual responses.

The extent of human exposure to the adverse direct consequences of a hazardous

event appears to have more effect on risk perception and social group mobilization

than does the magnitude of human injuries and fatalities. Should this finding stand up

3?J?hese points are taken from: Kasperson, R. (1992). "The Social Amplification of Risk: Progress in Developing an Integrative Framework" in Krimsky, S. and D. Golding, eds., Social Theories of Risk. (Westport, CT: Praeger): pp. 153-178; this essay reviews 14 articles that addressed the social amplification of risk since 1987.


in further studies, it could be a significant element in explaining the disjuncture

between technical and perceived risk.

The processing of risk events by the media, cultural and social groups, institutions,

and individuals profoundly shapes the societal experience with risk and plays a crucial

role in determining the overall societal impacts of particular hazard events. See

chapter 11 for case studies of specific instances that support this finding.

The contention in many risk studies that public perceptions largely mirror media

coverage needs further careful empirical confirmation. In our studies, no perception

variable except dread significantly correlated with extent of media coverage once the

physical consequences of the event were controlled. Generally, quantity of media

coverage was a weak predictor of individual concern. Since our subjects were not

actually exposed to the media coverage, however, we cannot reach any firm

conclusions about this relationship. But media coverage effects on group and

individual perceptions need further attention.

Social group mobilization appears to be highly intertwined with both media coverage

and eventual social impacts of the hazard events. Heavy media reporting appears to

stimulate social mobilization, and vice versa, and that activism is a "downstream"

variable in shaping eventual economic and social impacts of hazard events.

Finally, the role of risk signals and blame may be important contributors to social

group concerns and individual responses. Certain events appear to suggest larger

messages or inferences about the social meaning of the occurrence. Some events, for

example, appear to suggest that managers did not really understand or were careless


about the risk. Blame attributable to a corporation or governmental agency seems

particularly important. This appears to be a particularly promising direction for future

risk research.


The survey research effort designed to assess and monitor risk perception should be

continued. Special emphasis should be placed on refining the imagery technique and

monitoring changes in imagery and behavior associated with the federal effort to site a

nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain.

The relationship between trust in management of nuclear hazards and risk perception

deserves further examination. The causal direction from trust to risk perception

(demonstrated with the 1989 Nevada State survey data) should be studied with

alternative databases, especially with data collected over time, to examine the possible

interactive nature of the relationship between these variables.

Research is needed to determine how trust and risk perceptions are influenced by

process conditions, such as the way decisions about the policies and programs

associated HLNW are made in Congress, the federal agencies, and at the state and

local levels (this would include questions of equity and fairness in site selection);

variations in local, state, and federal control over facility siting and operations; the

potential for voluntary host sites; the potential roles of benefit-sharing, compensation,

insurance, and indemnification programs; and the positive and adverse effects

resulting from the history and reputation of repository management and proponents.


The interactions among worldviews, value systems, and perceptions of risk, trust, and

behavioral decision processes should be studied further. Such studies may provide

important insights to the way risk and its associated variables are framed by

individuals, groups, institutions, and political entities.

Further study of the social amplification of risk as it applies to nuclear facilities, and

especially HLNW programs, should be undertaken. The ways in which imagery and

the social amplification of risk are associated with Nevada and the Yucca Mountain

project should be further defined and then monitored throughout the life of the

repository program.

Studies should be conducted to determine why certain individuals and the investment

and financial communities are investing heavily in the Las Vegas region despite the

repository siting program. Are investors aware of Yucca Mountain in the context of

making investment decisions? Are they aware but unconcerned because of the long

time horizon for repository development? Or are they aware and unconcerned because

they doubt that stigmatization effects will be serious?


14.0 Equity by Roger Kasperson, Clark University

Equity problems pervade the challenges posed by the disposal of high-level nuclear

wastes (HLNW), which because of their high toxicity and radiation hazard must be handled

with extraordinary care and attention even over the short term if human and environmental

harm are to be avoided. These wastes arise from several activities, notably the production of

nuclear weapons and the use of nuclear power to generate electricity. There are two primary

beneficiaries of these activities; the nation as a whole, which benefits from the national

security associated with nuclear weapons production, and people and businesses to whom

nuclear power offers (presumably) a low-cost and reliable source of energy. Secondary

beneficiaries are those, sometimes in distant areas, who can buy cheaper products

manufactured using nuclear electricity.

Meanwhile, the burdens involved in waste disposal tend to be disproportionately

borne by those who live close to the disposal facility site(s) and along the transport routes

connecting waste sources with disposal sites. Also, because HLNW remain dangerous for

thousands of years, disposal programs can impose significant risks and burdens on many

future generations.

The concept of equity is complex; in fact, the word means different things to different

people. Although it is often conceived of as "fairness," this word too can take on many

meanings. It can be viewed as an allocation of burdens to those best able to absorb or deal

with them. Some, for example, view equity as primarily concerned with the substantive

outcomes of an activity or project; others are concerned with the procedures used to make

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Equity . 212

the allocations. What is clear is that equity involves both facts and values, so the domain of

equity analysis belongs to the scientist, the philosopher, the public official, and the public.

And if equity studies are to inform policy making, the analysis must be sensitive to, and

must inform, the choices available to those who must decide.

In 1986, the NWPO commissioned several studies to explore the concept of equity

and the methodologies by which equity assessments might be undertaken. These studies were

completed by 1988. Subsequent funding reductions did not permit the initial exploratory

work reported here to be developed into a full analysis of the equity issues associated with

the potential siting of a repository at Yucca Mountain.

The effort involved establishing clear definitions. Equity refers to the fairness of the

process or results of a particular activity or development to affected groups or individuals.

This definition suggests two principal types of equity studies.

Distributional equity refers to the fairness of the distribution of substantive outcomes,

or impacts, arising from the project or development. It requires two major types of analyses

or information. First, a statement of the distribution, to some specified population, of

benefits and harms that would result from a given decision or policy. This requires an

empirical analysis that includes a specification of those "thingsn-whether social goods,

opportunities, harms, or experiences-whose distribution is under investigation; an explicit

delineation of population and subpopulations inequities that would result from certain

distributions among different regions, among social groups within a region, and between

present and future populations to be considered in the analysis; and a statement of the actual

impact distributions, as defined by specification and delineation, that would result from

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Morintain Equity 213

alternate proposed solutions to the radioactive waste problem. Second, both types of

information-the specification of relevant populations and the types of impacts to be

assessed-involve critical value judgments. These judgments include defining what is

beneficial or harmful, the common denominator for comparing different types of harms and

benefits, the normative standards of fairness, (for example, the amount of monetary

compensation for being exposed to specific risk), and the structuring of population groups to

be used in an equity analysis. Such value judgments fundamentally shape the structure and

results of the empirical analysis.

Procedural equity refers to the fairness of the consultation and choice procedures used

to arrive at policies and decisions for radioactive waste management. Critical to this will be

determining who has legitimate interests and allocating right and responsibilities among them.

Analysis of procedural equity requires two types of information: criteria by which to gauge

the fairness of a particular set of institutional procedures, specifying roles, rights, and

responsibilities of potential interest groups and the relationships that should prevail among

them in reaching decisions; and data and information characterizing the institutional

procedures and relationships that actually were implemented and to which the normative

criteria can be applied.

14.1 Objectives

The objectives of these equity studies were:

To develop a conceptual framework by which the major equity problems involved in

the siting, development, operation, and closure of the proposed Yucca Mountain

facility can be identified and analyzed.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Equity 214

To review the literature in political economics and the decision sciences to determine

how equity issues are addressed in problems of collective choice where that choice

affects different individuals differently.

To formulate a methodology by which the distributional equity issues of the proposed

Yucca Mountain facility can be identified and estimated.

To explore the question of whether residents of a potential host state would be willing

to tolerate the siting of a repository in the state if the decision process were explicitly

fair.

14.2 Methods

The methods used in these series of studies include:

Reviewing the theoretical and methodological literature on equity,

Developing conceptual frameworks that provide a sound foundation for empirical and

prescriptive studies which the State of Nevada (or others) might wish to undertake,

Developing methodologies for empirical analyses of potential distributional and/or

procedural inequities, and

Reviewing the treatment of inequity in DOE-sponsored assessments.

The studies that follow also sought to better define and compare such equity-relevant

terms as impacts, risks, costs, burdens, benefits, effects, and harm.

In developing the methodological base for equity research, it was necessary to

formulate both a geographical and temporal framework according to which various data can

be allocated.


Finally, the philosophical and policy literature was examined to identify principles of

social justice that could be used in the normative and prescriptive portions of the equity

analyses.


Kasperson, R., S. Ratick, and S. Abdollahzadeh. (1988). Assessing the State/Nation

Distributional Equity Issues Associated with the Proposed Yucca Mountain Repository:

A Conceptual Approach. NWPO-SE-0 18-89. MRDB: IM0004.

This report presents a conceptual and methodological approach for examining

distributional equity issues in radioactive waste facility siting. The appropriate structure for

such an analysis is identified and described, as are the reference scenarios and comparisons

that will be needed. These comparisons include the total research and development costs of

developing a geologic nuclear waste repository and other HLNW disposal alternatives.

Methods for providing an estimate of the net national value of the Yucca Mountain repository

are explicitly addressed.

Kasperson, R., S. Ratick, and 0. Renn. (1988). A Framework for Analyzing and Responding

to Equity Problems Involved in High-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal. NWPO-SE-

019-89. MRDB: IM0003.

This essay sets forth a conceptual approach for identifying the role of equity analysis

in policy and decision processes for radioactive waste disposal. The structure of and potential

uses for this framework are specified. Two linked models are described. The first involves a

decisions tree for key choices in radioactive waste disposal and repository siting, with


particular attention to associated equity issues. The second depicts the components of inequity

analysis and management and the nature of their interrelationships.

Kleindorfer, P., M. Knez, H. Kunreuther, and D. MacLean. (1988). Valuation and

Assessment of Equity in the Siting of a Nuclear Waste Repository. MRDB: IM0002.

This report examines the valuation and assessment of equity in the context of HLNW

facility siting. Particular attention is given to two issues: how individuals value fairness in

the siting process and whether there are threshold values or conditions on procedures or

outcomes that must be met in order for the siting decision to be considered equitable. Results

from the theory of collective choice and survey-based empirical procedures for assessing the

values and perceptions of individuals with respect to the fairness of the approach are

analyzed from a philosophical perspective. Finally, the report addresses several serious

complications for valuing and assessing risk equity.

14.4 Major Findings

The major findings from the equity analyses completed by the study team are

conceptual and deal mostly with the issues of defining equity. Some work has been done on

the methodology of studying equity issues. The limitations in funding for the Nevada

socioeconomic studies placed a hold on work in this area in 1988. This precluded completion

of the objectives of formulating a methodology for identifying and estimating equity impacts

and for exploring the relationship between various program options and equity values. Given

these limitations, the major findings are conceptual and preliminary.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Equity . 21 7

Equity values and issues are important and in the case of the HLNW repository

present problems that are not adequately addressed by current federal government

programs and the proponents of the Yucca Mountain project. Many of the equity

assumptions including in the NWPA of 1982 and in the implementation of the

program by DOE appear to have been selected for political or administrative reasons

and not to fully and systematically address equity issues.

The siting of a repository at Yucca Mountain will disproportionately benefit the nation

by imposing burdens and uncertain risks on the State of Nevada. These burdens are

the result of distributional and procedural inequities.

The sources of distributional inequity are in the reassignment of costs and benefits

from geological areas that produce the HLNW to the host area for permanent storage.

The types of inequity include the distribution of economic benefits and potential

harms, and the transfer of the HLNW hazards and its risks for present and for future

generations.

Some economists have argued that all future costs and benefits of radioactive waste

management should be discounted. They have argued this point on technical

grounds-for example, for reasons of uncertainty or opportunity costs-and they have

appealed to consumer's sovereignty and the tendency of individuals to apply discount

rates to their own decisions. All the evidence about public attitudes toward nuclear

waste disposal, however, suggests strongly that public opinion is opposed to

discounting the potential costs of a HLNW repository.


Philosophical discussions about intergenerational equity have focused largely on what

is called the identity problem. Current policy choices will determine not only the

circumstances (e.g., the environment, the resources, etc.) that future generations will

inherit but will also determine which of different populations will ultimately be born

to live in those circumstances. We cannot assume some fixed population will exist in

the future, imagine different circumstances they might inherit from us, and then ask

what their rights or entitlements are or what choices we are morally obliged to make

to avoid harming them. If the very identities of the individuals who will live in the

future are determined by our policy choices today, then, from the perspective of any

possible future person, the alternative to the policy that creates both this person's

environment is a world in which the environment is different and in which he or she

does not exist at all. While a few philosophers have taken this argument to claim we

have no obligations to future generations, most philosophers conclude that a need

exists for intergenerational equity. In short, risks and benefits among generations must

be fairly distributed.

The sources of procedural inequity result from the imposition of costs and risks on

citizens, communities, and states against their will. Procedural inequity refers to the

process by which distributional inequity is implemented and enforced. Under this

interpretation of procedural equity, local consent to a nuclear waste facility must be

informed and free. However, where obtaining such consent is problematic alternative

ways to determine fair compensation and acceptable procedures must be defined.


There is a danger in using efficiency measure to determine compensation for risk

because this may result in efforts to find the easiest parties to bribe.

Compensation packages must be designed in cooperation with affected communities,

but local acceptance of an offer may not be sufficient to determine that socially just

compensation has been made. The compensation package, and the conditions under

which it is found acceptable, must be evaluated directly. In short, government is

responsible for determining independently whether consent and benefits are

appropriate.

Because of the nature of the costs and values involved, the kinds of compensation

benefits offered are critically important. If health risks are imposed, compensation

might aim explicitly at reducing overall health risks in other ways, through providing

subsidized health plans, hospitals, health care centers, and so on. Similar benefits are

generally more likely to offset a harm than dissimilar benefits.

There are a number of key assumptions to the present HLNW program that have not

been analyzed in terms of obtaining agreement on equity issues. One is the claim that

risks to everyone involved in current methods of storing nuclear wastes are larger

than would be true if a repository were built. Another is that deep geological storage

is the best method of permanent disposal. There are numerous areas of scientific and

socioeconomic uncertainty that have been assumed to be either not critically important

or problems that can be handled by future engineering techniques. In order to obtain

informed consent from host areas, both understanding of and agreement to the policy

and management choices would have to be obtained.



Five important needs are apparent for further equity-related research:

The studies reported here were designed to establish a conceptual and methodological

base for empirical and normative analysis of equity problems in DOE'S evolving

HLNW management. These problems remain essentially unassessed in 1992. The

state-sponsored studies had, by 1988, provided frameworks and preliminary

methodologies for such assessments. The empirical studies now need to be

undertaken.

The socioeconomic studies undertaken by the DOE, and more ambitiously by Nevada,

have provided a wealth of equity-relevant information and data. However, much of

this information is not yet desegregated in ways useful to equity analysis, nor have the

data been submitted to careful equity examination. A comprehensive structuring of

data and subsequent equity analyses should be undertaken.

It is apparent from various socioeconomic studies and the axes of federal-state-local

conflicts that procedural equity has emerged as a central problem in the siting

deliberations surrounding the proposed Yucca Mountain repository. A full and

carefully documented retrospective study of procedural equity in the Yucca Mountain

siting process should be undertaken and recommendations set forth as to how any

significant inequities might be redressed.

Research is needed to determine individual perceptions and valuations of equity. This

should be a major undertaking, and will require the design of new survey instruments

and a careful desegregated analysis of equity effects. Existing research provides a

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Moiintain Equity . 221

good basis for advancing the research in this area. These new analyses should include

the following areas of investigation: analysis of the relationship between individuals'

perceptions of risks and their view of outcome equity; analysis of the relationship

between the degree of trust that individuals have in government to maintain a safe

repository and outcome equity measures; the relationship between outcome equity

measures and individuals' voting behavior on the acceptability of the repository; and

the relationship between procedural equity measures, as captured by the role that

respondents believe the local government should play in monitoring and control (as

well as the federal government role in inspection), and voting behavior on repository

acceptability.

Finally, a study should explore the implications of the equity studies for policy

options and management initiatives, including, but not restricted to, the possible uses

of compensation and host state and community empowerment. The emphasis should

be on defining options and alternatives rather than reaching definitive prescriptions.


15.0 Trust and the Repository Program by K. David Pijawka, Arizona State University

Trust in the government to site and develop the nation's high-level nuclear waste

(HLNW) repository is an important issue. As early as 1981, the Office of Technology

Assessment (OTA) concluded that the most formidable problem confronting the development

of nuclear waste repositories was the level of distrust among concerned parties. Bella and

others examined the role of political trust in the nation's nuclear waste program as part of a

U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) study in 1986 and concluded that the lack of public

trust in the program was likely to grow to crisis proportions. In 1991 the OTA issued a

second report on DOE'S effort to clean up the nation's weapons complex and suggested that

the DOE lacked both the capability and credibility to successfully handle the cleanup efforts,

citing public skepticism as a critical problem.31 More recently, DOE itself has appointed a

Secretary of Energy Advisory Board to make recommendations on how the department can

strengthen public trust and confidence in its efforts to manage radioactive wastes. The draft

report of this task force was issued in December, 1992.32

31Bella, D., C. Mosher, and S. Calvo. (1988). "Establishing Trust: Nuclear Waste Disposal. " Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering 1 14: 40-50; Bella, D., C. Mosher, and S. Calvo. (1988). "Technocracy and Trust: Nuclear Waste Controversy." Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering 114(1): 27-39; U.S. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment (1982). Managing Commercial High-Level Radioactive Waste. Washington, DC: U. S. Government Printing Office; U. S. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. (199 1). Complex Cleanup: l%e Environmental Legacy of Nuclear Weapons Production. OTA-0-484. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

32Draft: Final Report of the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board Task Force on Radioactive Waste Management. (December, 1992).

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Trust and the Repository Program . 223

The question of trust in the federal government's ability to manage a HLNW

repository must be considered within a wider social context of low or declining confidence in

government, business, science, and other important institution^.^^ In addition, early findings

by the study team documented a high correlation between trust ratings and public risk

perceptions of the repository program. Those people who had low trust ratings for federal

agencies tended to perceive high risks associated with the repository program and, if they

were Nevada residents, to oppose the Yucca Mountain project. Because this relationship

between trust and risk perceptions held true for respondents in the national and regional

surveys as well as in Nevada, there is reason to think that trust also may be important in

understanding stigma effects.

15.1 Objectives

The studies of trust and confidence in government management of the repository

program had the following objectives:

To measure public trust in the performance of governmental agencies and officials

with respect to the repository program. These measures would include ratings of trust

for federal, state, and local entities.

To obtain ratings from different geographical areas and conditions within Nevada

(e.g., rural and urban; by distance from Yucca Mountain or potential transportation

routes, gender, etc.).

33~ipset, S. , and W. Schneider. (1987). The Conjidence Gap: Business, Labor, and Government in the Public Mind. rev. ed. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Trust and the Repository Program 224

To obtain more information on the relationship between trust and risk perceptions, as

well as trust and other variables (e.g., economic benefits and costs, positions on

equity and fairness issues, and opposition to or support for the repository program).

To examine the stability of trust perceptions and how such evaluations might be

altered. A number of suggestions have been proposed to increase trust, such as

providing more and better information to the public, allowing direct involvement in

program oversight by communities or states, and making structural changes in

management agencies or their relationship with host areas.

To understand and describe the dimensions of trust-those factors, singly or in

combination, that constitute a sense of trust. The research should explicate the

importance of such factors as integrity, fairness, consistency, competence, and other

elements constituting trust.

15.2 Methods

In addition to an extensive literature review, two major data collection methods were

used. Focus groups addressed the dimensions of trust and their applicability to the repository

program, and survey research, undertaken at various times, collected data on trust ratings

and on variables relating to trust issues, information evaluation, and conditions that could

result in change to public trust.



Mushkatel, A,, D. Pijawka, and M. Dantico. (1990). Risk-Induced Social Impacts: Eflects of

the Proposed Nuclear Waste Repository on Residents of Las Vegas Metropolitan Area.

MRDB: RP0 107.

The report focuses on data from two surveys: the 1988 Urban Risk Survey and the

Clark County portion of the 1989 Nevada State Survey. An overview is presented for key

findings related to public response and concerns about the repository program, including

level of awareness, concern about harmful effects, benefits versus risks, and repository

imagery. The report also addresses the role of political trust in repository risk perceptions.

Political trust and perceptions of management capabilities were examined for the major

repository risk clusters and for transportation risks specifically.

Mushkatel, A., and D. Pijawka. (1992). Institutional Trust, Information, and Risk

Perceptions.

This draft report summarizes the results of a 1992 Las Vegas metropolitan area

survey. A sample of 701 respondents was interviewed regarding repository risk perceptions,

governmental trust, belief in information, and other attitudinal dimensions. Longitudinal data

were used to compare this survey with the 1988 Urban Risk Survey on key variables.

Data collection was underway at the time that a major earthquake occurred in

southern Nevada near the Yucca Mountain site (June 29, 1992). By increasing the sample

size, it was possible to obtain statistically significant responses for both the pre- and post-

earthquake conditions. The data show differences caused by the intervention of a seismic

event.


Mushkatel, A., D. Pijawka, P. Jones, and N. Ibitayo. (1992). Governmental Trust and Risk

Perceptions Related to the High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository: Analysis of Survey

Results and Focus Groups. MRDB: RP0135.

This report covers the basic literature on political trust and studies that address trust

and the repository. The literature provides the backdrop for identifying issues dealt with in

the findings from one survey and the focus groups. The report summarizes the trust findings

from the 1988 Urban Risk Survey, focusing on the relationship between trust and risk

perceptions.

The report describes two focus groups undertaken in Las Vegas on trust perceptions.

The purpose of the focus groups was to aid in the development of a survey instrument on

trust perceptions. The focus groups also address questions related to the dimensions of

trust-integrity , competence, consistency, fairness, and other elements.

15.4 Major Findings

Public trust in the federal government to manage the repository program is highly

correlated with risk perception. The relationship is inverse-those who perceive high

risks show little trust in the government while those who perceive low risks

demonstrate high trust. In turn, both trust and risk perceptions are highly correlated

with support or opposition to the repository program. (See chapter 13, especially

MRDB: RP0123, Flynn, et al., A Structural Model Analysis of Public Opposition to a

High-Level Radioactive Waste Facility.)

Nevadans report the lowest levels of trust in federal agencies (DOE, NRC, and EPA)

and in Congress. Significantly higher trust ratings are given to state and local officials


and public institutions. Trust in DOE has declined since 1989, while ratings for state

and local entities have increased.

Las Vegas metropolitan area residents report little confidence in the ability of the

federal government to design and operate an "acceptably safe" transportation program

for HLNW, or to provide adequate response to accidents. There is a general lack of

confidence in the efficiency of governmental response to nuclear accidents.

A majority of Nevada residents do not think that DOE will provide prompt and full

disclosure on serious problems with the repository program.

A contributing factor to the lack of trust in the DOE repository program is the

public's belief in Nevada that the decision process that resulted in the selection of

Yucca Mountain was not fair or equitable.

The preliminary examination of information indicates that the most important

dimensions of trust in the DOE repository program are integrity (history of trust),

competence (the ability and application of correct knowledge and action), and

credibility (confidence in the scientific process for decisions and unbiased

information).

The public appears to respond more quickly and strongly to information about greater

risk or stories encouraging distrust than to information about safety or improved risk-

management plans. The case studies described in chapter 11 provide support for this

finding from other locations and facilities.

Once trust is lost it is very difficult to regain. A distrusted entity encounters a

suspicious examination of actions, statements, and motives especially in an adversarial

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Trust and the Reposito~y Program 228

process where evidence to support distrust is more likely to be accepted than evidence

to regain trust. Substantial improvement in DOE'S trust ratings might be possible if

major changes were made in the structure of the agency and the procedures it uses, so

as to provide greater access to program decisions and greater state, local, and public

control.

If the source of information is mistrusted, the public response to its messages tends to

be disbelief and further distrust.


The findings described above are based on preliminary results from the focus groups,

a review of the literature on trust, and the analysis of statistics from surveys.

The relationship between trust in the management of nuclear hazards and perceptions

of risk deserves further examination. The causal direction from trust to risk

perceptions (demonstrated with the 1989 Nevada State survey data) should be studied

with alternative databases, especially with data collected over time to examine the

possible recursive nature of the relationship between these variables. The effect of

policy changes on trust should also be addressed.

Researchers should go forward with multivariate analyses to determine the strength of

key trust relationships, especially the association between trust and risk perceptions

and sociodemographic influences.

There is a need to assess the independent contribution of trust in hazards

management, controlling for factors such as faith in nuclear technology.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Trust and the Repositoly Program 229

Further research and analysis should be conducted on the role of the dimensions of

trust and their variability.

Continued work in trust research should concentrate on understanding the way in

which events or mishaps amplify trust perceptions.

Finally, much more work needs to be done on the potential for regaining institutional

trust. Work on hypothetical scenarios and the explication of successful cases might be

useful.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Trust and the Repository Program 230

16.0 Management and Policy by Howard Kunreuther, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and Doug Easterling, Colorado T m t

Policy and management issues involve the decisions and actions taken by federal

actors such as Congress, the President, DOE, EPA, and the NRC. These decisions dictate

the nature of the facility (i.e., the project design) and the siting process. As such, they have

direct implications for what types of socio-economic impacts will occur (both standard and

stigma), as well as how acceptable the facility will be to affected parties. In fact, the

management and policy issues associated with the high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) program

are perhaps the most crucial ones to understand; they are especially wide-ranging and will

determine in large part whether or not a repository will actually be constructed.

Both HLNW policy and the management of that policy have been controversial for

several reasons. The proposed repository is a unique project characterized by tremendous

scientific and political uncertainty. The radioactive waste to be stored will remain hazardous

for hundreds of generations. The federal government's past management of nuclear facilities,

and especially its management of radioactive waste, has violated legal requirements and

breached the public's trust. Furthermore, the lead agency for the HLNW

program-DOE-was directly responsible for many of these past lapses and has appeared to

defy legal mandates and ignore scientific data in the repository-siting process. In addition, in

setting HLNW policy, Congress has vacillated in its commitment to objective decision

making and democratic principles. Overall, a large number of the policy and management

decisions surrounding the HLNW program have been greeted with either skepticism,

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Management and Policy . 231

mistrust, or anger on the part of affected stakeholders. The consistency of public opposition

over the past 20 years indicates that a tremendous challenge faces those charged with

responsibility for disposing of HLNW.

16.1 Objectives

The management and policy research objective is to analyze the institutional and

political challenges associated with managing the disposal of HLNW. The analyses consider

management issues at several levels: the policy-making process (e.g., Congress and the

President), which establishes the rules for selecting sites and regulating the repository; the

organizational structure within DOE, which determines how the operational decisions are

made and how science is incorporated into these decisions; and the interface between the

federal actors (Congress and DOE) and the affected public (including state and local

government within the candidate states). Correspondingly, there is considerable variation

between the studies in terms of the specific research questions addressed. These questions

include:

How sound is the official U.S. policy (i.e., the expeditious siting of a geologic

repository at Yucca Mountain)? This question can be addressed by employing

normative criteria (e.g., ethical, scientific), by comparing current policy to other

environmental law, and by considering the relative advantages and disadvantages of

this policy in contrast to the policies of other countries faced with HLNW problems.

How sound, in terms of scientific standards and economic efficiency, are the

organizational structure and decision rules adopted by DOE, the agency charged with

implementing HLNW policy?


How does the public perceive the prospect of living near a repository, and what sorts

of policy tools might be effective in increasing the acceptance of affected

stakeholders?

In answering these questions, the management and policy studies addressed the

following objectives:

To assess how the technical and social uncertainty inherent in HLNW disposal

influences risk management. Special attention was given to DOE'S past waste

management performance, using the Hanford radioactive waste facility as an example.

To identify which, if any, compensation and mitigation measures would improve

socioeconomic conditions in Nevada, should Yucca Mountain be selected as a

repository. Efforts were made to understand how attitudes of individuals both near

proposed repository sites and elsewhere would be affected by alternative compensation

and mitigation measures. A framework was also developed to integrate the

socioeconomic technical findings of the Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Study with

the management and mitigation efforts of the Nevada state and local governments.

To investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the federal program for siting a

HLNW repository, especially during the period between the passage of the NWPA of

1982 and Congress's subsequent selection of Yucca Mountain in December, 1987.

The decision-making process was evaluated in relation to principles of environmental

ethics as well as the credibility of DOE as the siting agency. Comparisons with

approaches taken in other countries provide a perspective on similarities and

differences with the U. S . program.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Management and Policy 233

16.2 Methods

The policy and management analyses were based on several distinct methodologies:

The studies on the organizational management associated with the HLNW repository

were primarily conceptual in nature, drawing on the literature in organization theory

and risk management system design. Two hypothetical scenarios associated with

disposal of radioactive waste were constructed to examine these theoretical issues and

an examination of the experience with Hanford through published studies critiqued the

performance of DOE in waste management.

The role of policy tools such as compensation and mitigation was examined through

two telephone surveys in 1987, one conducted in Nevada and the other a national

survey. (See chapter 6 for more detail on these surveys). A portion of these surveys

was designed to determine the importance of measures that might be taken to increase

public acceptance of a repository, as well as the impact of these measures on

residents' willingness to vote in favor of locating a repository near their community.

The critique of federal policies on the repository and the studies of how other

countries have dealt with nuclear waste issues were undertaken using published studies

and newspaper reports, and through discussions with knowledgeable individuals.


Emel, J . , B. Cook, and R. Kasperson. (1989). Risk Management and Organizational System

for High-Level Radioactive Disposal: Issues and Priorities. NWPO-SE-008-88.

MRDB: RA0012.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Management and Policy 234

This report explores the nature of the HLNW disposal tasks and their implications for

the design and organizational structure of effective risk management systems. The paper

assesses the management implications of technical and social uncertainty and the elements of

organizational theory that affect risk management system design. These issues are explored in

the context of two hypothetical risk scenarios associated with radioactive waste disposal.

DOE'S past waste management performance is also examined with special attention to the

Hanford facility.

Kunreuther, H., P. Kleindorfer, K. Richards, W. Desvousges, R. Gregory, P. Slovic, and

R. Kasperson. (1987). Analysis of Compensation and Mitigation for the Yucca

Mountain Socioeconomic Impact Project. MRDB : IM00 12.

This paper summarizes research on the role of compensation and mitigation in

improving socioeconomic conditions should Yucca Mountain be selected as the repository

site. A framework links risk perception and attitudes toward compensation and mitigation

options to an individual's decision on whether to vote in favor of a repository. With the help

of focus groups, two questionnaires (one for Nevadans and the other for a national survey)

were used to test hypotheses arising from the framework. The report also summarizes the

preliminary findings from the surveys and describes plans for the next phase of the project.

Mountain West. (1987). Impact Management and Mitigation Program. MRDB: IM0001.

This document develops a framework for integrating the socioeconomic technical

work of the project with the management and mitigation efforts by the Nevada state and local

governments. The Impact Management and Mitigation Program (IMMP) has three major


functions: understanding the decision-making process, policy analysis, and implementation

design. The report suggests that the socioeconomic study and monitoring program should

support the IMMP, which in turn should guide the technical work.

Lemons, J., and C. Malone. (1989). ScientiJic Public Policy and Ethical Implications of the

Nuclear Waste Policy Act and Its Amendments. MRDB: NU0001.

Lemons, J., and C. Malone. (1989). Siting America's Geologic Repository for High-Level

Nuclear Waste: Implications for Environmental Policy. MRDB: NU0002.

Lemons, J., C. Malone, and B. Piasecki. (1989). America's High Level Nuclear Waste

Repository: A Case Study of Environmental Science and Public Policy MRDB:

NU0003.

These papers critique the process that led to the choice of Yucca Mountain as the

repository site. Because of the unproven nature of the technology and the scientific

uncertainties associated with the performance of a repository, the policies guiding the

development of repositories represent a significant departure from more traditional

environmental policy. Specifically, the NWPA relies on more narrow guidelines and

mandates than the National Environmental Policy Act. The authors also argue that the siting

process has suffered because DOE did not incorporate ethical considerations into past and

recent decisions. The reports emphasize the importance of incorporating ethical principles

into the siting process as a way of reducing the controversy that now surrounds the decision

to place a repository at Yucca Mountain.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Managenlent and Policy 1 236

Emel, J., B. Cook, R. Kasperson, and 0. Renn. (1990). Nuclear Waste Management: A

Comparative Analysis of Six Countries. NWPO-SE-034-90. MRDB: RA003 1.

This report analyzes the approaches taken in six countries regarding the management

of radioactive waste disposal. There appears to be wide agreement on using deep geological

disposal of HLNW, either on land or under the sea. Ocean dumping is currently not being

considered, except for small levels of low-level wastes. Each country is developing

independent disposal options within their own boundaries. No country has licensed a site for

the final disposal of HLNW. Because of the long lead times necessary for approval and

construction of a repository, serious consideration is now being given to using interim

storage facilities for the next few decades.

16.4 Major Findings

The management and policy studies provide insight into ways that organizations

should function to deal with managing waste disposal. They also emphasize the importance of

mitigation measures in dealing with the construction and operation of the repository. The

critical analysis of the U.S. siting program, coupled with the experience of other countries,

has provided the project with a perspective on the challenges of and opportunities for

managing the siting process more effectively and fairly in the future.

The research identified a number of ways to manage waste disposal more effectively

from an organizational perspective:

Insist on more explicit clarification of assumptions, data sources, and methods by

DOE to prevent obscuring the overall risk assessment.


Undertake a vulnerability analysis to supplement the more conventional risk analysis

done by DOE.

Create surprise scenarios (e.g., wars, dense settlement, underground mining, climate

change) to develop engineered safety interventions that could prevent a radioactive

release or mitigate the consequences if a release were to occur.

Insist on validation or disconfirmation of the models used to conduct the repository

performance assessment.

Assure that the expert panel used to judge scenario credibility has widely different

disciplinary, experiential, and attitudinal backgrounds.

Use state-of-the-art methods for formulating expert judgments and constructing

scenarios. The State of Nevada should participate in appropriate peer review of the

work of such expert panels.

The key findings with respect to the use of policy tools such as mitigation and

compensation are as follows:

The vast majority of survey respondents felt that it was "very important" for a local

committee to have the power to shut down the repository if the committee decided it

was unsafe. Those who voted against locating a repository nearby were especially

likely to regard this safeguard as "very important."

A minority of each sample reported that they would accept a repository nearby in

return for cash payments from the federal government. The amount of proposed

compensation (which varied from $1,000 to $10,000 per year for 20 years) had no

impact on individuals' voting decisions.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Management a d Policy . 238

Grants to communities were viewed as more acceptable forms of compensation than

tax credits or rebates to individuals.

The studies on the U.S. repository program and foreign experiences yielded the

following key findings:

The environmental policies for repository siting are a significant departure from other

siting efforts, due to the unproven nature of the technology being evaluated and the

scientific uncertainties regarding the Yucca Mountain site.

The 1987 amendments to the NWPA of 1982, which selected Yucca Mountain as the

site for the repository, have more narrowly defined environmental statutes than does

the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).

The repository siting program is regarded by many observers as a violation of

environmental ethics, which has decreased public acceptance of the proposed site.

A comparative analysis of six countries' management of radioactive waste disposal

suggests that there is international agreement on the use of deep geological disposal of

HLNW, either on land or under the sea. Each country is developing independent

disposal options, rather than relying on out-of-country facilities. However, none of the

six countries studied has yet licensed a repository site.

Most countries are giving serious consideration to interim storage facilities because of

the long lead times for the selection and approval of a repository.

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountnin Management and Policy . 239


The research demonstrates the importance of simultaneously carrying out policy

research on a number of fronts. On a descriptive level, we need to learn more about

the principles and forces guiding HLNW policy, as well as the factors that influence

public opposition to or acceptance of HLNW facilities. On a prescriptive level, the

experiences of other countries need to be distilled into lessons that can inform U.S.

policy makers.

The organizational structures adopted by federal agencies other than DOE should be

explored in order to identify a model that will be both effective and feasible for

managing the HLNW program.

It is especially important to better understand the dynamics underlying mitigation and

incentives. This includes further investigation into the effectiveness of various policy

tools (e.g., education, monitoring and control, institutional mitigation) in reducing

risk perceptions. Such studies would better identify the role that trust plays in the

formation and revision of risk perceptions (see chapter 14), as well as testing whether

there are effective means of granting local residents control over a HLNW disposal

facility. More generally, efforts should be directed at finding management strategies

to minimize the social disruption and economic losses associated with such a facility.

The effect of economic incentives on public acceptance is a particularly ripe area for

further inquiry. It appears that compensation has an effect on acceptance quite at odds

with economic theory (e.g., no effect of large payments for many persons living

relatively far away from the facility, a shift from acceptance to opposition among


some persons). Further research could clarify how the introduction of economic

incentives influences the public's perception of the legitimacy of the siting process.

The normative analyses of federal HLNW policy (i.e., based on ethics, legal

precedents, and the philosophy of science) should be augmented with empirical

analyses that consider how the affected stakeholders (e.g., local citizens, state

officials) evaluate alternative policies. It is crucial to identify the features that would

lead them to regard a HLNW policy as legitimate. Given the tremendous uncertainty

surrounding the risks associated with HLNW disposal, the adoption of an explicitly

legitimate siting policy may be the only means of finding a solution that can gain the

consent or tolerance of affected stakeholders. In studying alternative siting

procedures, it would be useful to devote special attention to those that provide

potential host communities with substantial discretion over the key decisions (e.g., the

right to offer up possible sites, the right to exercise an absolute veto).


17.0 Transportation by Robert Halstead, Nevada Waste Project Ofice

The State of Nevada's nuclear waste transportation studies were greatly influenced by

two reports published in December, 1988. One of these, known as the ACR 8 Report, after

the legislation directing its preparation by the Nuclear Waste Project Office (NWPO),

proposed a comprehensive plan for state-sponsored studies addressing the impacts of nuclear

waste transportation to the proposed repository site at Yucca Mountain. The ACR 8 Report

research plan emphasized independent evaluation of DOE transportation system plans; rail

access options to Yucca Mountain; emergency response capabilities; risk, impact, and routing

models; shipping cask design, certification, and fabrication; and nuclear waste transportation

operational considerations. The report, prepared with input from affected local governments,

recommended development of a Transportation Research Center (TRC) at the University of

Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV).

Nevada's nuclear waste transportation studies have also been significantly influenced

by Transportation Needs Assessment (TNA) prepared for the State in 1988. NWPO hired

Mountain West Research to identify and prioritize the major transportation issues to be

included in a comprehensive state socioeconomic research plan. Mountain West Research

assembled a nationally recognized expert study team for this task and produced a five volume

report. NWPO has rdied heavily on the TNA Preferred Transportation System Options

volume for evaluations of DOE'S transportation system plans. NWPO has also extensively

used the TNA transportation impact assessment system (see Table 17.1) for organizing its

transportation research program, and has implemented many of the volume's

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Transportation 242

Table 17.1 Transportation Impact Assessment System

Transportation System Cross-cutting Issues

Risk assessment and risk management Impact assessment models

4 Institutional impact assessment Regulatory structure and liability Emergency preparedness

Transportation System Design

Volumes and timing of shipment Cask design and testing Model mix Routing Equipment and vehicle standards

4 Infrastructure Defense waste

Transportation System Operational Procedures

Operations plans Carrier requirements Personnel training and qualifications Cask maintenance Vehicle maintenance Vehicle stoppage Shipment monitoring and pre-notification Inspection and enforcement Physical protection

Source: Mountain West Research. (1988). Transportation needs assessment: Design of transportation impact studies.

recommendations regarding development of a Transportation Management Information and

Analysis System at the UNLV TRC.


17.1 Objectives

The ACR 8 Report and the TNA recommended specific research objectives,

information requirements, and project schedules for each of the issue areas listed in Table

17.1. Due to budget limitations, many of the research tasks originally planned for the 1989-

1992 period were delayed or deferred. The transportation studies conducted between 1986

and 1992 had five major objectives:

Evaluate the adequacy of DOE's transportation risk and impact assessments for the

proposed Yucca Mountain repository site.

Identify major transportation safety issues to be addressed in future DOE risk and

impact assessments.

Monitor DOE's transportation program and determine appropriate assumptions to be

used in future DOE risk and impact assessments.

Review and assess DOE's plans for highway access to Yucca Mountain.

Review and assess DOE's plans for rail access to Yucca Mountain.

17.2 Methods

The reviews of DOE transportation program documents and DOE transportation risk

and impact assessments included the following tasks:

Assembling the DOE documents and supporting materials, including the 1986

Environmental Assessments for repository candidate sites; supporting transportation

reports prepared by Sandia National Laboratories, Battelle Memorial Institute, and

other DOE contractors; the 1988 Draft Mission Plan Amendment; DOE rail and

highway access studies for the Yucca Mountain site, including the feasibility report on


the Caliente rail route; preliminary design reports for the "from-reactor" shipping

cask program; reports prepared for the Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) Review

Commission; reports of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board; and

proceedings of the PATRAM, WASTE MANAGEMENT, and IHLRWM

Conferences.

Reviewing DOE documents against other DOE and contractor reports to assess

consistency of assumptions and quality of documentation;

Comparing the DOE documents' assumptions, objectives, methods, and findings with

the relevant chapters of the TNA;

Identifying DOE documentation gaps and information needs using the data sources

identified in the TNA.

Identifying unresolved nuclear waste transportation safety issues for evaluation in

future risk and impact studies.

UNLV TRC characterized the highway and rail networks to Yucca Mountain as

follows:

NWPO selected four highway and ten rail access routes for preliminary

characterization. Rail access spurs were evaluated separately and in conjunction with

the mainline railroads linking the spurs with points-of-entry to Nevada.

Characterization of the rail access routes (spurs and connectors) was based on three

probability and eight consequence measures. Measures related to accident probability

included distance, anticipated accident rates, and hazardous materials shipments and

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mo~nrain Transportation . 245

inventories. Spur distances were taken from DOE scale maps of approximate spur

locations.

Measures related to consequence severity included resident and nonresident

population, ecologically sensitive areas, difficult- and dangerous-to-evacuate areas,

meteorological conditions, and infrastructure characteristics. Resident and nonresident

populations were derived from census, private, and local government sources.

Disaggregate geographic based zonal population data were overlaid on the rail

corridors using a TRC developed Geographic Information System. Resident and

nonresident populations were tabulated for I-, 2-, 6-, lo-, and 20-mile corridors.

The geographic information system also helped to quantify potentially affected

ecologically sensitive areas, including wildlife refuges, habitats of endangered species,

national forests, wetlands, and sanctuaries for wild horses, bighorn sheep, mule deer,

and elk.

For 3 of the 10 rail spurs, land uses and property values for a two-mile corridor

around each access route were calculated. A statistical sampling of County Tax

Assessor parcels information was used to approximate values and land uses. Difficult-

or dangerous-to-evacuate locations (e. g . , schools, hospitals, rest homes, and prisons)

were identified. Measures used were number of students, beds, and inmates within I-,

2-, 6-, lo-, and 20-mile corridors.

Route-specific data related to rail spur infrastructure were obtained from the

Preliminary Rail Access Study. These are limited to estimates of the approximate

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Transportation 8 246

alignment options, length, construction costs, operation and maintenance costs, and

conflicts with land use plans. No additional route specific data were collected.

Characterization of the highway routes was also based on three probability and eight

consequence measures. Measures related to accident probability included distance,

accident history rates, and hazardous materials shipments and inventories. Measures

related to consequence severity included resident and nonresident population,

ecologically sensitive areas, land use, property value, difficult- and dangerous-to-

evacuate areas, meteorological conditions, and infrastructure characteristics. With two

important differences, each of these measures were obtained using the methodologies

specified above in the Rail Characterization section. These two differences were in the

way accident history and rates and highway infrastructure characteristics were

quantified.

For accident rates and history, each route was broken into segments that provided

homogeneous classifications (similar infrastructure characteristics). Accident data for

1984-1988 and 1987-1991 were obtained from an NDOT accident history tape that

contained over eight information items for 200,000 accidents. Using traffic volume

data for each year, all-vehicle and truck-only accident rates was established for each

segment. For segments where incomplete volume information were available, volumes

were estimated using an interpolation technique and expert judgment.

A computer-based infrastructure and operations database was developed, using NDOT

information, reports and other studies. This database included information on

functional classification, number of lanes, road width, pavement type, grades and

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Transportation . 247

summits, bridges and culverts, railroad crossings, over and underpasses, speed limits

and travel times, hazardous highway elements, rest areas, and truck length and weight

limits.

The information in the accident and infrastructure databases (over 500 megabytes

Nevada-specific coverages), a TRC based video library of all route segments, and a

wall-sized USGS relief map of the study areas provide the capacity to identify and

evaluate specific elements of the highway system on either proposed route.


Glickman, T. (1987). Summary of the RADTRAN 111 Model. MRDB: RA0007.

Describes the RADTRAN I11 probabilistic risk analysis model developed by Sandia

National Laboratories. RADTRAN I11 is a revised version of the model used in DOE'S 1986

Environmental Assessments for Yucca Mountain and other repository sites.

Radwan, A. and S. Kalevela. (1988). Review of RADTRAN 111 Documentation and

Assessment of Theoretical Background. MRDB: RA0006.

General evaluation of RADTRAN I11 theoretical assumptions and databases. This

version of the probabilistic risk assessment model has been replaced by a new and expanded

version, RADTRAN 4.0.

Tuler, S., R. Kasperson, and S. Ratick. (1988). The Efects of Human Reliability on Risk in

the Transportation of Spent Nuclear Fuel. MRDB: RA0011.

Identifies the human factors in each phase of nuclear waste transportation that should

be considered in a comprehensive risk assessment. Addresses human factors in transportation


system development and in "upstream" activities such as cask loading, as well as in the more

traditionally-defined transportation operations. Includes an appendix by Lindsay Audin that

details past instances of human error in spent fuel transportation.

Mountain West Research. (1988). Description of the U.S. DOE Planned System for the

Transportation of Nuclear Waste to a Repository at Yucca Mountain: Transportation

Needs Assessment. MRDB: TR0004.

Describes DOE's plans for transportation of spent fuel and HLNW to a repository

based on Federal statutes and regulations, the DOE Draft 1988 Mission Plan Amendment,

DOE's 1986 Environmental Assessments, and DOE's 1986 Transportation Business Plan and

Transportation Institutional Plan. Provides particularly detailed descriptions of institutional

and regulatory issues.

Mountain West Research. (1988). Evaluution of the U.S. DOE Planned Transportation

System: Transportation Needs Assessment. MRDB: TROO 15.

Evaluates DOE'S proposed nuclear waste transportation system, based on documents

published through November, 1988, compared with the preferred system options presented in

the TNA. At the time of writing, DOE had not issued decisions regarding many of the key

issues concerning the transportation system for a repository at Yucca Mountain. Major areas

of uncertainty involved the volume and timing of shipments, cask design and testing, modal

mix, routing, equipment and vehicle standards, infrastructure impacts, and defense waste.

Mountain West Research. (1988). Preferred Transportation System Options: Transportation

Needs Assessment. MRDB : TROO 1 1.


Identifies critical design elements and technical and social issues that should be

considered in a comprehensive impact analysis for transportation of spent fuel and HLNW to

a geologic repository. Major issues are grouped in three areas: crosscutting issues,

transportation system design, and operational procedures. Crosscutting issues include risk

assessment and management, impact assessment models, institutional impact assessment,

regulatory structure and liability, and emergency preparedness. Preferred transportation

system design elements are recommended with the goal of defining optimal, impact-, and

risk-minimizing choices for the structure of the transportation network. Optimized operational

procedures are recommended for operations plans, carrier requirements, personnel training,

cask maintenance, vehicle maintenance, vehicle stoppage, shipment monitoring, inspection

and enforcement, and physical protection.

Mountain West Research. (1988). Design of Transportation Impact Studies: Transportation

Needs Assessment. MRDB: TR0003.

Presents a framework for conducting a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of

transporting nuclear waste to a repository and outlines the research and data needed to

conduct such an assessment. While focusing on repository shipments within the State of

Nevada, much of the report is applicable to nuclear waste shipments at the corridor state

level and at the national level. The transportation impact assessment system addresses five

cross-cutting issues, seven transportation system design elements, and nine transportation

system operational procedures elements. The report outlines the analytical tools, research

topics, and information and data needed for comprehensive impact assessment and presents a

near-term research work plan for the Transportation Research Center, UNLV. The report

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yiicca Mountain Transportation . 250

also presents out-year work plans, which include general research approaches, fields of

expertise necessary, who should be responsible for conducting the research, its importance to

the State of Nevada, and the urgency in beginning the research.

Mountain West Research. (1988). Literature Review: Transportation Needs Assessment.

MRDB: TR00 14.

This report is a comprehensive survey of relevant literature published through

November, 1988. Major topics include risk assessment, risk management, regulations,

infrastructure impacts, cask design and testing, and the DOE nuclear waste transportation

program. Literature surveyed included an extensive list of Federal and State government

documents and contractor reports. The report includes an appendix: Federal Agency

Transportation Responsibilities and Applicable Regulations and Orders.

Nevada Agency for Nuclear Projects/Nuclear Waste Project Office. (1988). A Report on

High-Level Nuclear Waste Transportation: Prepared Pursuant to Assembly Concurrent

Resolution No. 8 of the 198 7 Legislature. NWPO-TN-00 1-88.

This document, generally referred to as the ACR Report, describes and evaluates the

DOE transportation system based on documents published through November, 1988. It

includes NWPO's analysis of the likely number of nuclear waste shipments for various

system configuration and modal mix scenarios and identifies unresolved transportation safety

issue requiring further evaluation in future risk and impact studies. The report also describes

in detail the federal, state, and local regulatory structure governing HLNW transportation and


recommends a detailed work plan for State of Nevada-sponsored transportation research

studies. An extensive bibliography is included.

Hoskins, R. (1990). Nuclear Waste Management Systems Issues Related to Transportation

Cask Design: At-Reactor Storage, Monitored Retrievable Storage, and Modal Mix.

NWPO-TN-003-90. MRDB: TR0029.

This report reviews the legislative and regulatory basis of DOE'S cask design

program, industry practices related to cask design, and current at-reactor storage

technologies. It also discusses potential for dual purpose (storage and transport) and universal

(storage, transport, and disposal) casks and evaluates the MRS system studies conducted by

DOE, the State of Tennessee, and the MRS Review Commission. Moreover, the report

reviews modal mix choices and presents a proposal for transportation system optimization

utilizing a family of dual purpose cask designs.

Snedeker, D. (1990). Nuclear Waste Transportation Package Testing: A Review of Several

Programs in the United States and Abroad. NWPO-TN-004-90. MRDB: RA0045.

This report reviews recent experience with physical testing of full scale casks and

cask components, specifically the rail cask for Magnox reactor fuel in the United Kingdom,

and the NUPAC 125B container for reactor core debris and the TRUPACT-I1 container for

contact-handled transuranic wastes in the United States. In each example, the report discusses

testing objectives and the selection of test scenarios, as well as test instrumentation,

documentation, results, peer review, and costs, and summarizes lessons learned, including

the potential benefits of testing, limits that full scale testing impose on the design process,


and the potential disadvantage of emphasis on testing versus analytical solutions. The report

concludes with a descriptive overview of test facilities in the United States and abroad and

their capabilities for testing casks of various types and sizes.

Audin, L. (1990). Nuclear Waste Shipping Container Response to Severe Accident

Conditions: A Brief Critique of the Modal Study. NWPO-TN-005-90. MRDB:

RA0046.

This report critically reviews the study prepared by Lawrence Livermore National

Laboratory for the NRC, including the study peer reviews by Los Alamos National

Laboratory and by the Denver Research Institute. The focus is on study deficiencies in four

areas: data creation and analysis, cask design and response assessments, accident scenarios,

and spent fuel responses. The report concludes that the Modal Study has only limited

relevance to the future shipments being proposed for a repository at Yucca Mountain because

of different waste characteristics, cask designs, and transportation systems configurations

(including routes and shipment distances), and recommends a completely new study

incorporating updated assumptions, greater stakeholder input, and more rigorous peer review.

Resnikoff, M. (1990). Probabilistic Risk Management and Nuclear Waste Transportation: A

Case Study of the Use of RADTRAN in the 1986 Environmental Assessment for Yucca

Mountain. NWPO-TN-006-90. MRDB: RA0050.

This report reviews the use of RADTRAN I11 model for evaluating the consequences

of a severe transportation accident involving release of radioactive materials from a rail cask

in a rural area. The author uses an alternative model developed by DOE contractors


(PATHRAE-T) to determine ground concentrations, then considers the decontamination

levels and costs for three options available with RADTRAN 111. A discussion of the

implications for insurance coverage of potentially large cleanup costs is included. The report

also reviews the State of Nevada's comments on these issues in DOE's 1986 Draft

Environmental Assessment for Yucca Mountain, and DOE's responses (or lack of response)

in the final environmental assessment (EA). An extensive bibliography is included.

Golding, D. and White, A. (1990). Guidelines on the Scope, Content, and Use of

Comprehensive Risk Assessment in the Management of High-Level Nuclear Waste

Transportation. NWPO-TN-007-90. MRDB: RA005 1.

This report evaluates lessons learned from the NRC's Reactor Safety Study for

application to nuclear waste transportation and reviews risk assessment methodologies and

options for risk management and risk communication. It also presents specific

recommendations for preparation and continuous updating of a comprehensive transportation

risk assessment (CRA), use of the CRA as a working risk management tool, and use of the

CRA for risk communication within a credible process encouraging public involvement.

Nuclear Assurance Corporation. (1990). Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Shipments in the

United States, 1964-1987. NWPO-TN-008-90. MRDB: TR003 1.

This report presents available information on U.S. commercial spent fuel shipments,

including origin and destination, number of shipments, number of assemblies shipped, and

type of cask used.


Halstead, R., L. Audin, R. Hoskins, and D. Snedeker. (1990). State of Nevada Comments on

the O C R W From-Reactor Spent Fuel Shipping Cask Preliminary Design Reports.

NWPO-TN-009-90. MRDB: RA0044.

The authors review and recommend major changes in DOE'S cask development

program. They describes the truck and rail cask designs selected by DOE for the "from-

reactor" shipments to an MRS facility or to a geologic repository and provide a detailed

technical critique of the General Atomics GA-4 and GA-9 truck casks and the Babcock and

Wilcox BR 100 rail cask, based on a comprehensive review of the preliminary design

reports. An appendix includes comments on the preliminary design reports by the Edison

Electric Institute Utility Nuclear Waste and Transportation Program (EEIUWASTE)

Transportation Working Group and the Western Instate Energy Board (WIEB).

Souleyrette, R. and S. Sathisan. (199 1). Preliminary Nevada High-Level Nuclear Waste

Transportation Route Characterization and Risk Analysis Study. NWPO-TN-0 1 1-9 1.

MRDB: TR0030.

This is an in-depth report on highway and rail routes to Yucca Mountain that reviews

general methodological issues, data requirements, and data availability. The report presents a

preliminary characterization of four major highway routes and identifies potentially critical

locations for highway accidents. It also presents a preliminary characterization of three rail

access spurs and their mainline rail connectors and identifies potentially critical places for

rail accidents on proposed rail access spurs and a detailed technical appendix.

Audin, L. (1991). Nuclear Cask Testing Films Misleading a d Misused. NWPO-TN-0 12-9 1.


The authors critically reviews the way in which film footage of cask tests conducted

at Sandia National Laboratories is used in several films designed for presentation to general,

nontechnical audiences and contrasts the portrayal of the cask tests in the films with the test

results as stated in technical reports published by Sandia. The author concludes that the films

withhold and distort information showing that the consequences of transportation accidents

could be significantly more severe than claimed by DOE and the nuclear industry.

Freudenburg , W. (199 1). Organizational Management of Long-Term Risks: Implications for

Risk and Safety in the Transportation of Nuclear Wastes. NWPO-TN-013-91. MRDB:

RA0053.

This report discusses individual and collective human factors that may contribute to

nuclear waste transportation risks and identifies potential human errors in risk estimation

techniques that may lead to underestimation of risks. The author identifies organizational

failures that may increase risks. The report includes an appendix by L. Clarke on

organizational foresight and the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

Jacob, G. (1992). 7be Hazardous Materials Transportation Uniform Safety Act of 1990:

Implications for the Transportation of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive

Waste. NWPO-TN-0 14-92.

The author discusses the implications of the HMTUSA for Federal and State

regulation of spent fuel and HLNW shipments and specifically addresses the way in which

HMTUSA may affect selection of modes and routes for shipments to Yucca Mountain,


inspection requirements, Federal preemption of State regulations, and the elimination of

physical cask testing requirements from the final version of the legislation.

di Bartolo, R., and R. Halstead. (1992). Review of Selected Literature pertaining to Human

Factors in Nuclear Waste Transportation (DRAFT).

This report reviews recent studies of human factors in nuclear waste transportation,

and recommends state-sponsored studies and initiatives. Recommendations include

development of specific guidelines for incorporating organizational and individual errors in

transportation risk assessment; development of integrated databases on patterns and causes of

human error at various stages of the transportation system; and development of a model

regulatory-institutional plan for human factors management.

Souleyrette, R. (1992). GIS-Based Characterization of Rail and Highway Access to Yucca

Mountain. (DRAFT).

This report expands and refines UNLV TRC's 1991 study. All route characteristics

were obtained using GIs and previously unavailable Census TIGER data were used for

demographic characterization. The Nature Conservancy's endangered species observation

database was used for identification of environmentally sensitive areas. The A and B route

options (as defined by DOE) for the Caliente rail spur and four variations of the Carlin rail

spur were characterized.

Sathisan, S.K., E.M. Parentela, and A. Chagavi. (1992). Transportation of Radioactive

Materials to Yucca Mountain: National Implications of Highway Route Designation in

Nevada. @IRA FT).


The authors investigate the potential implications of Nevada's designation of

alternative routes for HRCQ shipments using the HIGHWAY model (version 3.00) accessed

through TRANSNET at Sandia National Laboratories. They consider routes to Yucca

Mountain from three DOE HLNW storage sites and three Eastern nuclear power plant sites

and assess impacts of changes in Nevada point-of-entry on selection of cross-country highway

routes and shipment times and distances.

17.4 Major Findings

DOE Transportation Risk and Impact Assessments

To date, DOE has published only one detailed transportation risk and impact

assessment, included in the 1986 Environmental Assessment for Yucca Mountain (DOEJRW-

0073). Several aspects of that assessment remain relevant. Because of remaining uncertainties

regarding choice of mode and selection of routes, the evaluation of 100 percent truck and

100 percent rail shipments are appropriate bounding scenarios, and the identification of all

six potential highway routes to Yucca Mountain (including US 93 across Hoover Dam and I-

15 and US 95 through downtown Las Vegas) is also appropriate. The 1986 EA also correctly

identifies U.S. Air Force bombing range overflights as potential threats to shipments to

Yucca Mountain.

The conclusions of the 1986 transportation risk assessment, however, are outdated,

suffer from many shortcomings and omissions, and conflict with many findings of the state

studies. The version of RADTRAN used underestimates the radiological risk of both routine

shipments and severe accidents. The radiological risk analysis does not consider human


error. Moreover, the 1986 EA did not include the results of RADTRAN's predicted cost of

post-accident cleanup involving only a fractional release of cask contents. Resnikoff (1990)

found that cleanup costs could range from $176 million to $19.4 billion, depending on the

level of cleanup and disposal options.

The transportation impact assessment is rendered obsolete by changes in the assumed

rail access routes. The 1986 EA is premised on construction of a 100-mile spur from Dike

Siding, on the Union Pacific mainline just north of Las Vegas, to Yucca Mountain. DOE is

no longer considering this option because of potential land use conflicts. The three options

currently being considered are much longer (up to 360 miles) and more difficult and

expensive to construct. Two of these options could route some rail shipments through

downtown Las Vegas. These changes mean the 1986 EA rail transportation risk and impact

conclusions are no longer useful.

Unresolved Transportation Safetv Issues

The ACR 8 Report reviewed the nuclear waste transportation safety debate that

evolved during the 1980s. (References for the following discussion are documented in the

ACR 8 Report, pp. 42-46, 100-117.) Between 1980 and 1987, 24 states and 20 Indian tribes

were involved in DOE's repository and MRS siting programs. These potential host states and

tribes were unanimous in their concern about transportation safety; they prepared and

submitted to DOE hundreds of pages of technical comments critical of DOE's general

transportation plans and site-specific transportation risk analyses. Transportation corridor

states also joined the debate. In July, 1988 the governors of 19 western states adopted a


resolution urging DOE to evaluate regional transportation safety impacts as part of the

environmental impact statement for a Yucca Mountain repository.

In response, DOE argued that state and public concerns about safety reflect an

exaggerated perception of risk. It insists that the actual risk of nuclear waste transportation is

extremely low compared to other hazards, and that the level of risk is socially acceptable.

The ACR 8 Report identified the following supporting arguments in DOE and NRC

documents for DOE'S position:

The nuclear industry has had an excellent safety record in transporting spent nuclear

fuel over the past 3 decades. Accidents have occurred, but there have been no

significant radiation releases and no deaths or injuries from radiation exposure.

The radiation emitted by shipping casks during routine operations is insignificant

compared to natural background radiation and will not result in adverse health effects.

The maximum annual dose to a person residing 100 feet from a transportation route

would be 0.002 to 0.008 rem.

The probability of a severe transportation accident is extremely low; about one severe

accident every 10 years is expected at the anticipated level of annual shipments to the

repository.

The NRC and the DOT have established a comprehensive system of safety regulations

that reduces the likelihood of severe transportation accidents; these regulations will be

reviewed and revised if necessary prior to the beginning of shipments to a repository.

Even in the event of a severe accident, the shipping cask is expected to prevent any

significant radioactive releases or exposures. The maximum dose received by an


individual at the scene of the most severe accident would be about 10 to 25 rems (no

adverse health affects are expected from exposures less than 50 rems), and a worst-

case accident in an urban area involving widespread dispersal of released

radionuclides and no cleanup would produce no more than 13 to 22 cancer deaths

over 50 years.

However, based on extensive literature surveys and on the state-sponsored studies

listed in this chapter, NWPO staff and consultants believe that a number of safety issues have

not been resolved and need further attention. These include:

U. S. civilian nuclear industry transportation safety record. U . S . nuclear utilities have

shipped about 2,600 cask-loads of spent fuel since 1964 without a significant off-site

radiological release. Transportation and unloading accidents have occurred, however,

and there have been instances of equipment failure. At least one case of attempted

sabotage of a shipment is known to have occurred. A remaining concern is whether

the U.S. industry's past experience is a good predictor of the safety of future DOE

shipments to Yucca Mountain. U.S. utilities have had relatively little experience with

long-distance rail shipments. The lowest estimate of the amount of spent fuel to be

shipped to Yucca Mountain (63,000 MTU) is more than thirty times the total amount

shipped between 1964 and 1990. The average length of shipments to Yucca Mountain

would be about 2,000 miles, compared to an average distance of about 550 miles for

previous utility shipments, creating additional opportunities for human error and

equipment failure. Moreover, DOE'S track record as a self-regulated shipper of spent

nuclear fuel includes instances of risk-taking that would be unacceptable or illegal if


committed by an NRC licensee. For example, DOE knowingly used a cask with

questionable safety margins (the M-1A) for shipments of research reactor fuel through

the New York metropolitan area. (See U.S. General Accounting Office, "DOE Needs

to Take Further Actions to Ensure Safe Transportation of Radioactive Materials,"

GAOlRCED-88- 195, September, 1988).

Radiological health efects of routine shipments. Current NRC regulations allow a

certain amount of neutron and gamma radiation to be emitted from shipping casks

during routine operations and transport (1,000 mremlhr at the cask surface, and 10

mremlhr 2 meters from the cask surface). The significance of human exposure to low

levels of radiation, which may cause health effects less obvious than cancer or birth

defects, is not fully understood. Specific concerns about adverse health effects from

routine emissions have focused on exposure of train crews to emissions from rail

casks, especially on dedicated trains, and exposures to members of the public from

truck casks during gridlock incidents (DOE acknowledges the potential for individual

exposures up to 40 mrem during gridlock). Another aspect of this issue is the

excessive levels of surface contamination (the so-called "weeping" phenomenon) on

casks loaded in wet storage pools.

Federal safety regulations. Past analyses have identified a number of significant gaps

in federal safety regulations, compounded by inadequate federal enforcement and a

growing trend toward preemption of state regulations. These regulatory issues must be

reexamined in light of enactment of the Hazardous Materials Transportation Uniform

Safety Act (HMTUSA) of 1990. Preliminary analysis of HMTUSA indicates, for


example, that there is currently no requirement for an NRC radiological inspection or

a US DOT mechanical safety inspection prior to each highway shipment of spent fuel.

Where HMTUSA requires motor carrier inspections, the shipper may self-inspect.

HMTUSA does not correct inadequate enforcement of DOT rail safety regulations.

Probability of severe accidents. One of the major issues in risk assessment is the

predictive ability of probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) and the appropriate use of

PRA in communicating risk to the general public. Changes in assumptions and data

can produce significant changes in PRA results and confidence levels. The probability

of severe accidents involving repository shipments may be significantly different than

those calculated by previous studies. Overall accident rates could be higher or lower

depending on the accident histories of the routes used. Moreover, the fractional

distribution of total accidents among severity categories has relied primarily on expert

judgement rather than route data. The transportation risk assessment prepared for

DOE's 1986 Yucca Mountain EA did not, for example, consider unique local

conditions along specific route segments that could increase the probability or the

consequences of severe accidents. Nor did it consider potential changes in the

transportation environment that may significantly influence future accident rates:

higher highway speed limits, higher average train speeds and the introduction of high-

speed passenger trains, industry deregulation and profitability, higher rates of

infrastructure failure, urban freeway congestion and gridlock, and other factors.

Perhaps the single most important factor, and the most difficult to assess, is human

error. To date, DOE's studies have not encompassed the full spectrum of human


factors. Organizational and individual error may significantly affect not only the

probability of severe accidents, but also the accuracy of efforts to estimate the

probability and consequences of severe accidents. (Conversely, the risk of severe

accidents could be lower if DOE adopted the human factors management strategies

recommended by the Transportation Needs As~essment,~~ Fre~denburg,~' and

Kasperson et al.36)

Shipping cask pet$omance in severe accidents and sabotage or terrorism incidents.

The assumption that shipping casks will survive the most severe accidents or sabotage

or terrorist incidents without loss of shielding or containment is questionable. Audin's

critique of the Modal Study and other NWPO studies indicate that the NRC cask

performance standards may not reflect credible worst-case accident or attack

scenarios. None of the casks currently in use have been physically tested to determine

if they comply with current standards because full-scale testing is not required by the

NRC. DOE has no plans for full-scale testing of the new cask designs even though

they may differ significantly from current designs. Furthermore, DOE has not

adequately considered human factors in all phases of cask development and

deployment. Human error may affect cask performance in the design phase, in

fabrication, in licensing, in operations, and in maintenance. DOE'S consideration of

human factors in cask design has been inadequate, as documented in NWPO's review

"See the five Mountain West Research (1988) reports in this chapter.

35See Freudenburg (199 I), this chapter.

36See the three Kasperson et al. (1987) reports in chapter 12, Risk Assessments.

Stare of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Transportation 8 264

of the preliminary design reports for the GA-419 and BR-100 casks. Human factors

management will be especially important in the OCRWM transportation system

because the large cask fleet will require mass production and large-scale maintenance

operations.

DOE Transportation System Uncertainties

The ACR 8 Report identified five major decision areas in which uncertainties made

any effort to assess transportation system risks and impacts extremely difficult: inclusion of a

Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility in the waste management system; types and

amounts of wastes to be shipped to the repository; modal mix; shipping cask capacities; and

routing. Four years later, none of these uncertainties have been resolved. Taken together,

they create major difficulties in assessing risk and impacts that are driven by the number of

shipments and the routes traversed by those shipments, regardless of mode.

For example, the ACR 8 Report estimated the number of shipments for various

scenarios, based on the assumptions in DOE's 1988 Draft Mission Plan Amendment (the last

official DOE document that includes a detailed transportation element). In a system including

an MRS that consolidates and packages spent fuel prior to shipment to the repository in large

(150 ton) rail casks, the total number of cask shipments to the repository could be as low as

5,400, more than half of which could be delivered in 570 dedicated trains (five casks per

train). If all shipments are made by legal-weight truck, there could be as many as 76,000

shipments. If the cask capacities assumed in DOE's preliminary cask design reports for the

GA 419 and BR-100 are used, the total number of truck shipments would be about 44,000 for

a repository limited to 70,000 MTU, as per the current law. NWPO has also considered a


maximum shipment scenario (no MRS facility, no second repository, no statutory limitation

on first repository emplacements, all defense HLNW solidified and shipped to the repository,

and all wastes shipped by truck) in which the total number of legal-weight truck shipments

could exceed 142,000. These shipment numbers would be even larger if new reactors are

added to the current system, or if currently licensed reactors extend their operating lifetimes

from 40 to 60 years.

Potential Impacts of Hinhwav Shipments to Yucca Mountain

Based on current regulations, DOE has identified 1-15 and US 95 as the likely

primary highway routes to Yucca Mountain (see Figure 17.1). These routes traverse the Las

Vegas Valley, home for about 70 percent of all Nevadans and the center of Nevada's gaming

and tourism economy. The Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT) projects traffic on

these routes to double by the year 2008, greatly increasing the risk of accidents. State and

local authorities are concerned that the perceived risk of nuclear waste transportation and the

social amplification of any accidents or incidents which may occur, could adversely affect the

area's tourism and recreation industry. The recent drastic increases in resident population and

visitations are projected to continue, exacerbating concerns about transportation safety.

In 1987, the Nevada Legislature directed NDOT to evaluate alternative state routes

for shipments of highway-route-controlled quantities (HRCQ) of nuclear materials. Pending

completion of similar studies by the State of California, the Nevada Transportation Board

will formally designate alternative routes, probably in 1994. The following routes are now

being considered for designation for shipments to or from the NTS:


Figure 17.1 Potential highway routes to YuccaMountain.


Route A: US 93A, SR 3 18, US 93, 1-15, Craig Road, US 95, between Wendover and

Mercury

Route B: US 93A, US 6, US 95, between Wendover and Mercury

Depending on designations by the State of California, a number of routes could be

used for shipments entering Nevada from 1-40 or 1-15 in California, including SR 164, SR

160, and SR 373. Other routes in northern Nevada could be used for truck shipments

originating in northern California, Oregon, Washington, or Idaho.

NDOT Route A would traverse portions of metropolitan Las Vegas. NDOT Route B

would bypass the Las Vegas Valley by routing shipments through central Nevada, but would

traverse a number of smaller cities, including Ely, Tonopah, Goldfield, and Beatty. The two

routes which use 1-15 and US 95 would bring shipments into downtown Las Vegas to the

intersection known locally as "the Spaghetti Bowl." These four routes were selected for

detailed characterization because they could potentially carry the majority of truck shipments

to Yucca Mountain and because of their potential adverse socioeconomic impacts on the Las

Vegas area.

Of four primary highway routes studied, the three that traverse the Las Vegas Valley

(1-15 from California, 1-15 from Utah, and 1-15 to Craig Road) have a similar potential for

much greater direct impacts on residents, and on difficult-to-evacuate groups, than does the

NDOT B route which goes through Ely, Tonopah, Goldfield, and Beatty. The ten-mile

corridors along the 1-15 and US 95 routes through Las Vegas each contain more than

500,000 Nevadans, or over one-third of the State's population. The ten-mile corridor along

the NDOT A Route (1-15 to Craig Road) has a resident population of over 260,000, while


Figure 17.2 Potential rail routes to Yucca Mountain. SPRR = Southern Pacific Railroad; UPRR = Union Pacific Railroad.


the NDOT B Route has 14,000.

Two of the Las Vegas Valley routes also have significant potential for direct impacts

on large numbers of nonresidents-conventioneers, sightseers, and casino visitors. The

estimated nonresident population of the ten-mile corridors along both 1-15 and US 95 routes

is over 300,000 and includes all the major hotels and casinos of the Las Vegas Strip. Indeed,

there is an estimated nonresident population of more than 110,000 within the one-mile

corridor along 1-15 from California is over 110,000, and almost 315,000 within the two-mile

corridor. Such concentrations of visitors near primary highway routes have special

significance for evacuation planning and for assessment of stigma socioeconomic impacts

based on perceived risk and subject to risk amplification.

Finally, the highway routes through Las Vegas have high concentrations of difficult-

to-evacuate locations such as hospitals, schools, and prisons. For example, it is estimated that

the 1992 school enrollment within the ten-mile corridors along the 1-15 and US 95 routes

exceeds 85,000 in both cases.

Preliminary routing analyses by UNLV TRC using the highway model confirm the

routing conclusions of U.S. DOE'S 1986 EA. In the absence of a State of Nevada designation

of alternative routes, the vast majority of truck shipments from reactors east of the

Mississippi River would traverse the Las Vegas Valley en route to Yucca Mountain. Nevada

designation of the so-called NDOT B Route would shift the point-of-entry and the majority of

shipments from the East away from the Las Vegas Valley with only small increases in

system shipment mileage requirements (about 10% overall). However, requiring all

shipments to use the NDOT B Route would greatly increase shipment distances from some


Western reactors and storage sites to Yucca Mountain, in some cases doubling the milage.

Such increases might violate US DOT routing guidelines or be deemed an unreasonable

burden on interstate commerce. Therefore, it may not be possible for Nevada to completely

route truck shipments away from the Las Vegas Valley, although the total number of truck

shipments through the valley could be significantly reduced by designation of alternative

routes.

Potential Im~acts of Rail Shi~ments to Yucca Mountain

The Yucca Mountain site presently lacks rail access. The nearest mainline railroads,

the Union Pacific, and the Southern Pacific, are more than 100 miles and 250 miles distant

respectively. DOE recently identified 13 potential rail access corridors to Yucca Mountain,

screened these down to 10, and selected three routes for further study-the Caliente, Carlin,

and Jean options (see Figure 17.2).

The Jean option is the shortest, requiring about 120 miles of new spur construction.

The Caliente and Carlin options would each require about 360 miles of new construction.

DOE subsequently picked the Caliente route for its first in-depth study, although stating "at

this stage in the evaluation there is no preferred route." NWPO believes that additional

corridors (beyond DOE'S ten) should be evaluated prior to EIS scoping.

For its preliminary characterization study, however, NWPO directed the UNLV TRC

to evaluate the three options selected by DOE. In addition, TRC also evaluated sections of

existing rail line that could be used to provide access to each of the three proposed spurs.

For the Jean Spur, two connectors were evaluated, the Southern Union Pacific line from

California and the Southern Union Pacific from Utah. The latter was used in the study of the


Caliente corridor. The connector established for analysis of the Carlin route was the

Northern Union Pacific line entering Nevada near Wendover.

No obvious fatal flaws were identified for any of the three routes, although

preliminary analysis suggests that the Jean route may involve unacceptable environmental

impacts. However, the difficulty of constructing rail access to Yucca Mountain should not be

underestimated. Construction of any of DOE'S three options would be the longest new rail

project in the United States since the 1930s. Only one option, Caliente, has been studied in

detail. That study highlights many uncertainties regarding environmental and other regulatory

approvals and estimates construction costs of $1.0 to $1.5 billion. The feasibility of rail

access to Yucca Mountain cannot be confidently assumed until DOE demonstrates that one or

more routes are not only technically feasible from an engineering standpoint, but also are

environmentally and economically viable.

The UNLV TRC studies evaluated demographic characteristics that have major

implications for risk and impact assessment during the repository characterization,

construction, and operations phases. Resident and nonresident populations along the rail spur

routes are important indicators of potential adverse socioeconomic impacts during

characterization and construction. Resident population within corridors is a major indicator of

potential land use conflicts, including potential conflicts over right-of-way acquisition. For

the Caliente and Jean spurs, the estimated resident population within the one-half mile

corridor is over 500; for the Carlin route, the number is much greater, about 4,500.

Socioeconomic impacts of rail operations require evaluation of resident and

nonresident populations along the mainline connectors as well as along the access spurs.


Development of either the Caliente or Jean options would likely route large numbers of

shipments through downtown Las Vegas on the Union Pacific mainline. The two-mile

corridor along this route contains about 100,000 residents and more than 125,000

nonresidents. The Carlin option would route most rail shipments along the Southern Pacific

or Union Pacific mainlines through Elko and Carlin. For the Carlin option, the resident

population within the two-mile corridor is about 20,000; the nonresident population has not

yet been precisely calculated, but it is certainly much smaller than along the Union Pacific

mainline in Las Vegas.

There are currently no US DOT rail routing guidelines for nuclear waste shipments

comparable to those for truck shipments. Unless rail routing guidelines are adopted, selection

of national and regional rail routes to Yucca Mountain is likely to be determined by contracts

between DOE (as the shipper of record) and the various rail carriers. States are not

authorized to designate alternate rail routes for nuclear waste shipments. Moreover, the

national railway system provides far fewer routing choices for cross-country shipments than

does the national highway system. Selection of rail routes to minimize distance may conflict

with other routing objectives such as avoidance of highly populated areas, minimization of

number of carriers and carrier interchanges, utilization of highest quality track, and so forth.

Given these circumstances, it is difficult to predict the extent to which shipments

through downtown Las Vegas on the Union Pacific mainline can be reduced or eliminated by

selection of a particular rail access route to Yucca Mountain. Selection of the Jean route is

generally thought to impose the greatest rail impact on Las Vegas, assuming that the vast

majority of nuclear waste shipments would enter Nevada from Utah. Selection of the Caliente


route is believed to impose little or no impact on Las Vegas. However, it is possible that a

large number of shipments from rail-capable reactor sites in the West and in the South, and

from DOE'S Savannah River Plant might be routed from East to West on the Santa Fe or

Southern Pacific, entering Nevada from the West via Barstow on the Union Pacific. Thus,

both the Jean and Caliente rail access options create the potential for large numbers of rail

shipments through downtown Las Vegas.


Future transportation risk and impact assessments for the Yucca Mountain site must

continue to consider a broad range of modal mix options (100 percent highway, 100 percent

rail, and various combinations) and at least the six potential highway access routes identified

by DOE and NDOT and the three potential rail access routes selected by DOE. Both rail and

highway route-specific analyses must give greater attention to impacts on Nevada's Native

American tribes(inc1uding the potential for tribal regulation of shipments), potential conflicts

with U.S. Air Force operations, and the potential for continued dramatic population growth

in southern Nevada (especially Clark County).

Future transportation risk and impact assessments for Yucca Mountain and for the

national transportation system to Yucca Mountain must pay greater attention to unresolved

safety issues, including relevancy of the commercial nuclear power industry's transportation

safety record, radiological impacts of routine operations, adequacy of federal safety

regulations, probability of severe accidents, and shipping cask performance during severe

accidents and terrorist incidents.


Future transportation risk and impact assessments must consider a broad range of

scenarios regarding the national waste management system configuration and the quantities

and types of wastes shipped to Yucca Mountain. Specifically, future assessments must at a

minimum consider systems with and without an MRS facility; repository capacities ranging

from 70,000 MTU to 140,000 MTU; truck cask capacities ranging from 0.5 to 2.0 MTU;

and rail cask capacities ranging from 3.5 to about 25 MTU.

Several specific research topics merit high priority funding over the next 2 or 3 years:

Feasibility of rail access to Yucca Mountain, including evaluation of additional rail

access routes and intermodal (rail-to-truck) delivery options.

Highway routing to Yucca Mountain of shipments from Western reactors and storage

sites (these are sites that would likely ship directly to the repository even if an MRS

facility is included in the waste system).

Capabilities of the RADTRAN 4.0 (and subsequent versions) risk model, including

the extent to which RADTRAN can be run with alternative assumptions (inputs)

regarding accident probabilities, accident consequences, and health effects of accidents

and routine shipments. A particular concern is RADTRAN's ability to evaluate the

probabilities and consequences of accidents exceeding the severity assumptions drawn

from the NRC's Modal Study.

Human factors analysis and management in all phases of the transportation system.

Human factors analysis must begin as soon as possible in order to be incorporated

into major policy decisions (for example, inclusion of an MRS facility in the waste

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Molintain Transportation . 275

management system) and into hardware development (for example, shipping cask

design).


18.0 An Overview by James Flynn, Decision Research and James Chalmers, Coopers & Lybrand

The State of Nevada Yucca Mountain socioeconomic study program is different from

any other. It may be the most extensive investigation of the role of social and economic

impacts resulting from a federal program and project undertaken to date. Congress, in the

NWPA of 1982, assigned to the affected states where a potential repository might be located

the rights and obligations to conduct socioeconomic impact studies. The focus and scope of

socioeconomic research was left to the discretion of the states, subject to Congressional

appropriations. By virtue of its position as potential host to a repository at Yucca Mountain,

the State of Nevada was motivated to examine the potential socioeconomic impacts with great

care. The results of the state's studies to date have demonstrated that a repository has the

potential to produce significant impacts from a number of sources, including the possibility

of stigma effects on the visitor and tourist industries of the state.

A Brief Review

The development of research in the area of public perceptions of high-level nuclear

waste (HLNW) and the federal programs may be regarded by many readers as the most

innovative work of the study team. Designing and implementing methods for measuring

images of places, including a repository, and estimating the possible consequences to state

and local economies, has expanded the ability of social science to provide a detailed account

for a range of potential impacts that were left out of socioeconomic impact assessment

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Conclusions . 277

altogether or treated with only the most perfunctory qualitative comments. Beyond this, the

study team developed the conceptual design for the social amplification of risk; considered

the components that make up public support or opposition for the repository, including the

roles of perception of risk, trust, stigma, and cost-benefit tradeoffs; and provided a

conceptual basis for addressing equity issues.

In the area of intergovernmental relations, the study team developed a theoretical

framework that combines the mandate-driven demands of federal legislation and the more

local economic-demographic demands on state and local agencies and officials. The

combination of top-down and bottom-up political and service demands give a more accurate

and comprehensive picture of potential impacts on the public sector than had been available

in socioeconomic impact assessments previously. Going beyond the conceptual design, this

work demonstrated in the 1989 Interim Report that it is possible to estimate, much more

accurately than has been done previously, the potential costs of the HLNW program to state

and local governments.

The evaluation of communities, including rural towns, Native American groups, and

the complex Las Vegas metropolitan area, provided evidence that detailed analyses of

complex social structures, over a large geographical area, could be accomplished with

sufficient accuracy and detail to address the impacts of the repository program. The

distinctive qualities of communities and groups were described and much of the different

responses were accounted for. Although a detailed examination of the urban area was not

funded, the methods for undertaking a set of stakeholder group studies was conceptualized,

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Conclusions 1 278

and the preliminary work indicates that such an approach could define a wide range of

socioeconomic impacts even in such a complex social environment.

The essential capacity to make economic and demographic analyses was established.

The demands for designing and putting into practice this portion of the impact assessment

capability were extraordinary. For example, the project description, which is essential to all

subsequent modeling efforts for local, community, regional, and state impact assessment, in

the case of the repository had to account for unprecedented uncertainly in schedules, time

frames, design options, project spending alternatives, and revenue generation. The difficulties

were compounded by the variety of users and uses that the system was asked to address. In

response, the study team developed an innovative, interactive, computer-based project

description capability that can track and monitor the repository project as well as provide

alternative descriptions for further economic-demographic modeling runs. In addition, the

system was designed to account for the stigma and transportation impacts.

The structuring of the project description in these broad and quantified terms provides

inputs for further economic, demographic, and fiscal modeling. This work is necessary to

provide a new level of impact assessment that responds to the major sources of potential

impacts from a wide variety of sources including on-site, transportation, and public-related

stigma activities. Although the study team tended to call the output from these capabilities the

standard impacts because they were developed from an older and more established part of

socioeconomic impact assessment, it should be pointed out that there has been significant

development in these areas to make it possible for these models to deal with the full range of

potential impacts from the repository.


The major findings sections from the preceding chapters identify a large variety of

important actual and potential impacts from the repository. This body of work demonstrates

that social science can realistically address a number of complex areas of potential impact

and provide essential information for public policy and decision makers. Even at the level of

effort reported here, however, it must be concluded that additional work is required. There is

a need to monitor and update socioeconomic activities in the state and its communities, and

to continue development and refinement of theories and conceptual models dealing with

public responses to a HLNW repository.

The study team has addressed social and economic behaviors not only by collecting

and analyzing data but by developing new ways of understanding the factors that motivate

responses to HLNW and the repository program. This research effort strongly argues for

recognition of the critical importance of socioeconomic factors and impacts in evaluating the

nation's efforts to site a repository. The overall conclusion is that the federal government is

not prepared at the present time to address the effects of such a project on society, that it

will have to do so in new and effective ways to solve the HLNW problems presented by

public opposition and resistance to such facilities. In the opinion of the study team, public

support and acceptance will elude policy makers and program managers until a new compact

with the public is organized and established.

Some Reflections on the Research Pro-iect

A number of important changes have taken place over the period 1986-1992, when

the research included in this report was conducted. The original contract to conduct the

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Conclusions 280

state's socioeconomic studies has been completed and a new contractor has been chosen to

manage future studies. The same core group of researchers will continue their work.

However, this transition marks an appropriate time to complete this report on the past studies

and to consider how conditions for doing the Yucca Mountain socioeconomic studies may

have changed.

One difference is in the funding for socioeconomic research. Funding to the Nevada

Nuclear Waste Policy Office (NWPO) from the Nuclear Waste Fund (NWF) has declined

since the late 1980s. Congress has reallocated some of this difference to counties, who were

designed as affected units of government in the 1987 Amendments Act, and to cooperative

agreements between DOE and the University of Nevada. Thus, although Nevada as a whole

receives about the same dollar amounts now as it did earlier in the program, this funding is

allocated to several places. The state's program has experienced significant cutbacks, while

the counties have been required to go through a process of design, mobilization, and

implementation for their socioeconomic programs. Not surprisingly, the results are less

coordinated than a state-funded and administered effort. The three southern Nevada counties

(Nye, Clark, and Lincoln) receive the bulk of the county government funds and have

established socioeconomic programs for their individual jurisdictions. The cooperative

agreement between DOE and the university system funds socioeconomic studies authorized

by DOE. Data and information will need to be coordinated between all the available research

efforts to achieve a suitable evaluation of the repository socioeconomic impacts.

The DOE program established by the NWPA of 1982 is now just over a decade old.

While the likelihood that Yucca Mountain will be developed as a repository would appear


greater now than when the site was one on a list of nine, or five, or three, there is still a

great deal of uncertainty about whether a repository can and will be built there. Opposition in

Nevada continues at very high levels. Other options seem attractive as the schedule for

operations at the repository slip and costs escalate. Uncertainty dominates state and local

attempts to respond. The Yucca Mountain project is established as one of the state's high-

visibility and on-going political issues.

Looking Ahead

What is the outlook for future socioeconomic research on the Yucca Mountain

repository project? Based on past effort, we can expect that the federal socioeconomic work

will be a minimal effort to support their licensing and EIS objectives. The State of Nevada

effort, on the other hand, will continue to be focused on understanding the full range of

potential impacts. The ability of the state to accomplish the objectives of its research,

however, will be determined by the future of the repository program and by the funding

available to support socioeconomic studies.

Future state socioeconomic studies will be fundamentally affected by the level of

effort (i.e., direction and intensity) of the federal repository program. There are three

potential futures for the DOE project at Yucca Mountain. In one scenario the program will

continue to struggle, as it has from the beginning and especially since the amendments of

1987, attempting to deal with management and administrative problems, changing focus of its

scientific efforts, and funding and schedule uncertainties. Under this scenario, the state

socioeconomic studies will continue with very modest funding.


In a alternative scenario, DOE could increase its management capabilities and focus

on a scientific evaluation of Yucca Mountain rather than attempting to initiate construction of

a repository. It could seek to establish cooperative arrangements with state and local

governments (as required by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982), initiate genuine and

capable socioeconomic studies to go along with an acceptable physical science program, seek

a working level of public trust and acceptance for the program, and obtain significant

additional funding. It could attempt to work out effective responses to potential stigma

effects. In this scenario, we would expect that funding to measure and address the

socioeconomic impacts would increase substantially.

A third scenario is that the Yucca Mountain project is discontinued. This could take

place at any time due to a number of causes or a combination of them. New scientific

findings (e.g., volcanic, hydrologic, or earthquake risks) could disqualify the site. The

federal government could stop the program for economic reasons,37 or based on a

determination that DOE cannot adequately manage the project, leading to establishment of a

new or drastically revised federal program and management strategy. A federal court

decision against the program, abandonment of support by a disillusioned nuclear industry as

the schedule slips and the costs continue to rise, denial of the licenses and permits by the

NRC, or admission by DOE that the program should be terminated or that the department

cannot meet regulatory guidelines, are all possible causes for abandonment of the Yucca

Mountain site. In the case of the program being discontinued, the socioeconomic research by

the NWPO socioeconomic study team would end.

-

37Keeney and von Winderfeldt (1992).


Thinking About the Ootions for Socioeconomic Studies

Planning for future socioeconomic studies should take account of the two basic

scenarios where the Yucca Mountain repository program continues. This account should

include a realistic appraisal of the resources that will be available. The existing work has

defined the potential for impacts in great detail, and it has provided a solid base for

monitoring and addressing the future developments of the repository program. The

refinement and further development of methods and techniques and establishment of on-going

data collection are areas that now need to be addressed by the study team and by NWPO.

The ability to integrate findings should be emphasized. The future socioeconomic studies

should address:

coordination of study disciplines including how, for example, risk perception,

ethnographic, or transportation information can be fully included in socioeconomic

evaluations;

the vast geography (national, state, and community) that applies to the HLNW

program; the intergenerational issues and concerns including the decades, centuries,

and millennium time frames involved;

the adversarial and alliance roles of major stakeholders; the difficulties of institutional

roles and relationships including that of federal agencies, task forces, the courts, and

the State of Nevada as an overseer of the program;

the authority and involvement of affected counties, local communities, and other

individuals and groups as it applies to the repository program and to the

socioeconomic studies;


the roles of trust, fairness, and equity in impact generation and manifestation;

the role of scientific and technological uncertainty;

research on issues of mitigation, compensation, and benefit sharing.

The Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Study Team considers it very important that

their research contribute to understanding the meaning and potential impacts of Yucca

Mountain for Nevada and its residents, and to improving the nation's ability to manage and

find a suitable solution to its nuclear waste problems. Only when the full range of

socioeconomic impacts, and their underlaying causes, are understood will it be possible for

the State of Nevada and the federal government to make repository decisions that provide

wise and acceptable choices.

While the outcome of the project at Yucca Mountain remains in doubt, the larger

problems of managing HLNW and other hazardous technologies will not go away. As we

come to a better understanding of the role of people, communities, and institutions in

defining and addressing these problems, we may improve society's ability to provide

acceptable solutions.


Glossary

ANEC BEA CENTED

DOE Downwinders

EPA GAO HLNW LVMA MRDB

MRS MTHM NEPA NIMBY NNWSI NRC NTS NWF NWPA NWPAA NWPO OCRWM OTA PAS

PDSDS REECo REMI RSDS SIA SLGPG

TRC

YMPO

American Nuclear Energy Council U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Center for Technology, Environment, and Development, Clark University U.S. Department of Energy General term referring to. those individuals who were in the path of nuclear fallout from atmospheric testing U. S . Environmental Protection Agency U. S . General Accounting Office High-Level Nuclear Waste Las Vegas Metropolitan Area Nevada Monitoring Reference Database, NWPO's data and information management system designed to track socioeconomic technical information produced in the state's socioeconomic studies Monitored Retrievable System Metric Tons of Heavy Metal National Environmental Policy Act Not In My Backyard Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations Nuclear Regulatory Commission Nevada Test Site Nuclear Waste Fund Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987 Agency for Nuclear ProjectsINevada Nuclear Waste Project Office Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management U.S . Office of Technology Assessment Planning and Assessment System: An economic-demographic impact assessment model developed by Mountain West Project Description Scenario Development System Reynolds Electric Engineering Company Regional Economic Models Inc. Repository Scenario Development System (earlier version of PDSDS) Socioeconomic Impact Assessment State and Local Government Planning Group for NWPO's Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Studies Technical Review Committee for NWPO's Yucca Mountain Socioeconomic Studies DOE'S Yucca Mountain Project Office

State of Nevada Socioeconomic Studies of Yucca Mountain Glossary 286

References

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Kasperson, R. E., Golding, D., & Tuler, S. (1992). Social distrust as a factor in siting hazardous facilities and communicating risks. Journal of Social Issues, 48(4), 161-187.

Kasperson, R. E., & Kasperson, J. X. (1991). Hidden hazards. In D. C. Mayo, & R. Hollander (Eds.), Acceptable evidence: Science and values in hazard management (pp. 9- 28). Oxford: Oxford University.

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Krannich, R. S., Little, R. L., & Cramer, L. A. (1993). Rural community residents' views of nuclear waste repository siting in Nevada. In R. E. Dunlap, M. E. Kraft, & E. Rosa, A. (Eds.), Public reactions to nuclear waste: Citizens' views of repository siting. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.

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Little, R. L., & Krannich, R. S. (1989). A model for assessing the social impacts of natural resource utilization on resource-dependent communities. Impact Assessment Bulletin, 6(2), 21-35.


Morwitz, V. G . , Easterling, D. V., & Kunreuther, H. (Under review). Gambling with the environment: Forecasting consumer response to a high-level nuclear waste repository porn scenario-based surveys.

Mushkatel, A. H., & Dantico, M. K. (1991). Governors and nuclear waste: Show-down in the Rockies. In E. B. Herzik, & B. Brown, et al. (Eds.), Gubernatorial leadership in state policy @p. 173- 189). Greenwood.

Mushkatel, A. H., & Herzik, E. (1992). Intergovernmental complexity in nuclear waste disposal policy. Policy Studies Review, 10(4), 139-151.

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Mushkatel, A. H., Nigg, J., & Pijawka, D. (In press). Nevada urban residents' perceptions of the nuclear waste repository. In R. E. Dunlap, M. E. Kraft, & E. A. Rosa (Eds.), Public reactions to nuclear waste: Citizens' views of repository siting. Durham, NC: Duke University.

Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1990, May). Public perceptions of transporting hazardous materials. In State and local concerns in transporting hazardous materials. Saint Louis, MO: American Society of Civil Engineers.

Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1991, April 30). Political trust's role in explaining Nevada urban residents' perceptions of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository. In Proceedings of the High-Level Nuclear Waste Conference. Washington, DC: U.S . Department of Energy.

Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1992, Winter). Public opposition to the siting of the high- level nuclear waste repository: The importance of trust. Policy Studies Review, pp. 180- 194.

Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1992, February). [Review of Gerald Jacob's Site unseen: The politics of siting a nuclear waste repository.] Land Economics, pp. 123- 126.


Mushkatel, A. H., Pijawka, D., & Glickrnan, T. (In press). The perceived risks of transporting hazardous materials and nuclear waste: A case study. In Proceedings of the International Consensus Conference on the Transportation of Hazardous Materials. Waterloo, Ontario: University of Waterloo.

Mushkatel, A. H., Pijawka, D., & Nigg, J. (1988). Measuring environmental, developmental and property value: Impacts of solid waste facilities. In T%e forum 1988.

Pijawka, D., & Mushkatel, A. H. (1992, Winter). Editors introduction. Policy Studies Review on Nuclear Waste Policy, pp. 88-90.

Pijawka, D., & Mushkatel, A. H. (1992). Nuclear waste policy and siting the nation's repository. Policy Studies Review, lO(4)

Pijawka, D., Mushkatel, A. H., & Glickman, T. (1993). The perceived risks of transporting hazardous material and nuclear waste. In Proceedings of the International Consensus Conference on the Risks of Tranporting Dangerous Goods. Waterloo, Ontario: University of Waterloo.

Renn, O., Burns, W., Kasperson, J. X., Kasperson, R. E., & Slovic, P. (1992). The social amplification of risk: Theoretical foundations and empirical applications. Journal of Social Issues, 48(4).

Slovic, P., Flynn, J., & Layman, M. (1991). Perceived risk, trust, and the politics of nuclear waste. Science, 254, 1603- 1607.

Slovic, P., Layman, M., & Flynn, J. (1991, April). Risk perception, trust, and nuclear waste: Lessons from Yucca Mountain. Environment, pp. 6-11, 28-30.

Slovic, P., Layman, M., & Flynn, J. (In press). Risk perception, trust, and nuclear waste: Lessons from Yucca Mountain. In R. E. Dunlap, M. E. Kraft, & E. A. Rosa (Eds.), Public reactions to nuclear waste: Citizens' views of repository siting. Durham, NC: Duke University.

Slovic, P., Layman, M., Kraus, N., Flynn, J., Chalmers, J., & Gesell, G. (1991). Perceived risk, stigma, and potential economic impacts of a high-level nuclear waste repository in Nevada. Risk Analysis, 11, 683-696.

Tuler, S., Kasperson, R. E., & Ratick, S. (1989). Human reliability and risk management in the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. In G. B. Guy (Ed.), Reliability on the move: Safety and reliability in transportation @p. 169- 194). London: Elsevier Applied Science.


Cramer, L. (1989, November). High level nuclear waste: Attitudes towards its location and transportation. Presentation to the Mountain West Center for Regional Studies, Utah State University.

Cramer, L., & Bourke, L. (1990, August). Alternative explanations of community responses toward siting a high-level nuclear waste repository: Bad deal, NIMBY, or risk perception shadow?. Presented at the annual meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, Norfolk, VA.

Cramer, L., Krannich, R. S., & Rhea, V. (1989, April). The orientations of rural community residents toward the transportation of high-level nuclear waste: The case of southern Nevada. Presented at the annual meetings of the Pacific Sociological Association, Reno, NV.

Dantico, M., Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1990, April 25-28). Citizen perceptions of the high-level nuclear waste repository. Western Social Science Association Meetings, Portland, OR.

Dantico, M., Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1991, February 16). Gender and race in risk perceptions: The proposed Yucca Mountain repository. Annual Conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC.

Dantico, M., Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1991, March 20-23). Inducing change in perceptions of risk: Nesting scenarios within surveys. Western Political Science Association Meetings, Seattle, WA.

Easterling, D. (1989, November 3). The role of fairness in promoting the siting of a high- level nuclear waste repository. Presented at Annual Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, Arlington, VA.

Easterling, D. (1990, October 20). Ex ante consent to siting procedures as a means of gaining acceptance for noxious facilities. Presented at Annual Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, San Francisco, CA.

Easterling, D. V., & Kunreuther, H. (1988, November 21). Nevadans' attitudes toward a Yucca Mountain repository: The role of safety, sound policy, and economic incentives. Presented at Annual Meeting of the Decision Sciences Institute, La Vegas, NV.

Easterling, D. V., & Kunreuther, H. (1990, April 10). Public attitudes toward a high-level nuclear waste repository: Implications on the prospects of successfil siting. Presented at First International High Level Radioactive Waste Management Conference, Las Vegas, NV

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Easterling, D. V., & Kunreuther, H. (1990, October 2). Siting strategies to instill trust and legitimacy: The case of radioactive waste repositories. Presented at Symposium on Hazardous Materials and Wastes: Social Aspects of Facility Planning and Management, Toronto, Ontario.

Easterling, D. V., & Kunreuther, H. (1992, October 30). Legitimacy as a means of solving the high-level waste dilemma. Presented at Annual Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, Denver, CO.

Easterling, D. V., Kunreuther, H., & Morwitz, V. (1991, May 3). Forecasting behavioral response to a repository from stated intent data. Presented at Second International High- Level Radioactive Waste Management Conference, Las Vegas, NV.

Emani, S., Kasperson, J. X., Kasperson, R. E., & Renn, 0. (1990, October 7-10). Media profiles and the social amplijication of risk. Annual Meetings of the Society for Risk Analysis, New Orleans.

Endter-Wada, J. (1989, April). Nuclear policy in Nevada: Nuclear testing and storage of nuclear waste. Presented at the annual meetings of the Society for Applied Anthropology, Santa Fe, NM.

Endter-Wada, J. (1990, July). Natural resource dependency and economic vulnerability: Rural community responses. Presented at the Symposium on Rural Villages in the Twenty-First Century, Utah State University.

Endter-Wada, J., & Little, R. L. (1992, August). Rural responses to natural resource dependency. Presented at the annual meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, State College, PA.

Fowler, C. S . (1988, June). Southern Paiute-Timbisha Shoshone dialectology: An inteface at Yucca Mountain Nevada? Paper presented at the Uto-Aztecan Linguistics Working Conference, Salt Lake City.

Fowler, C. S. (1990, April). Southern Paiute data collected by Isabel Kelly in the 1930s and its interpretation in the light of more recent studies. Paper presented at the Southwestern Anthropological Conference, Riverside, CA.

Gregory, R., & Easterling, D. (1990, March 2). Policy tools to address the health risks, economic impact, and inequity of a nuclear waste repository. Presented at Public Interest Law Conference, University of Oregon, Eugene.

Kasperson, R. E. (1987, February 18). Assessing the risks and related impacts of high-level radioactive waste disposal. Annual Meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Chicago, IL.


Kasperson, R. E. (1987, May 5-6). Building a constituency for equity in hazardous management. Symposium on Practical Problems in Hazardous Waste Management, Washington, DC.

Kasperson, R. E. (1987, November 27-29). Negotiation and bargaining in hazardous waste facility siting. Atlantic Seminar on Issues in Environmental Management, University of East Angli, Norwich, UK.

Kasperson, R. E. (1987, May 5). Public understanding of radioactive wastes. Executive Session on Mixed Wastes, American Nuclear Society, Washington, DC.

Kasperson, R. E. (1987, March 3-5). Radioactive wastes and the social amplijicatin of risk. Waste '87 meetings in Tucson, AZ.

Kasperson, R. E. (1987, November 1-4). Social amplijication of risk: The case of radioactive waste disposal. Annual Meetings of the Society for Risk Analysis, Houston, TX.

Kasperson, R. E. (1988, October 28). Hazardous facility siting and compensation. Seminar of the Joint Center for Environmental and Economic Development, London.

Kasperson, R. E. (1988, April 16-19). The social amplijication of risk. Annual Meetings of the Association of American Geographers, Phoenix, AZ.

Kasperson, R. E. (1989, October 29-November 1). Procedural equity in radioactive waste facility siting. Annual Meetings of the Social for Risk Analysis, San Francisco.

Kasperson, R. E. (1989, March 9). Radioactive wastes and the social amplijication of risk. National Academy of SciencesINational Research Council, Washington, DC.

Kasperson, R. E. (1989, January). Social amplijication of risk: Building empirical theory. Annual Meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, San Francisco.

Kasperson, R. E. (1990, March 1-3). An international perspective on risk and perception. Waste Management '90, Tucson, AZ.

Kasperson, R. E. (1990, October 7-10). New departures in siting hazardous facilities. Annual Meetings of the Society of Risk Analysis, New Orleans.

Kasperson, R. E. (1990, February 18-21). The social amplijication of risk. Annual Meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, New Orleans.

Kasperson, R. E. (1990, January 11-12). The social amplijication of risk: What have we learned since 1988?. Workshop on Risk and Risk Communication, Cambridge, MA.


Kasperson, R. E. (1990, April 8- 12). Social realities in radioactive waste management. Plenary address, International High-Level Radioactive Waste Management Conference, Las Vegas, NV.

Kasperson, R. E., Kasperson, J. X., Renn, O., & Slovic, P. (1989, February 26-28). The process of social arnplzjication: The media and public responses. Waste Management '89, Tucson, AZ.

Kasperson, R. E., & Kunreuther, H. (1989, August 21-23). Siting hazardous waste facilities: The U.S. experience. International Conference on Economic Growth and Environmental Protection, Tapei, Taiwan.

Krannich, R. S., & Little, R. L. (1988, August). Dzferential orientations of rural community residents toward nuclear waste repository siting in Nevada. Presented at the annual meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, Athens, GA.

Krannich, R. S., & Little, R. L. (1989, January). Rural community residents ' views toward nuclear waste repository siting in Nevada. Presented at the annual meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, San Francisco.

Little, R. L., Krannich, R. S., & Endter-Wada, J. (1988, August). The continued saga of Caliente: The persistence of community following "Death by Dieselization ". Presented at the annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society, Athens, GA.

Mushkatel, A. H. (1991, July). Natural hazards research at Arizona State University. Invited presentation at the Annual Meeting of the Natural Hazards Research Conference, Boulder, CO.

Mushkatel, A. H., Dantico, M., & Pijawka, D. (1991, March 20-23). Gender and race in risk perceptions: The proposed Yucca Mountain repository. Western Political Science Association Meetings, Seattle, WA.

Mushkatel, A. H., Nigg, J., & Pijawka, D. (1988, February 28-March 3). Risk perception and intended behavior: l l e efects of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository on Las Vegas residents. Paper presented at Waste Management 88, Symposium sponsored by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, American Nuclear Society, Electric Power Research Institute, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, University of Arizona, Tucson.

Mushkatel, A. H., Nigg, J., & Pijawka, D. (1989, January). Urban residents' risk perception of a nuclear waste facility. Invited symposium paper on policy, politics, and public opinion on a high-level nuclear waste repository at the Annual Meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, San Francisco, CA.


Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1988, April 7). Risk-induced behavior and the siting of the high-level nuclear waste repository. Paper presented at the National Conference of the Association of American Geographers, Phoenix, AZ.

Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (199 1). Resident perceptions of the proposed nuclear waste repository in Nevada. Nevada Commission on Nuclear Waste Policy, Las Vegas, NV.

Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1991, August 4-9). Riskperceptions of hazards: Role of trust. International Symposium on Geological Hazards in Developing Countries and Their Environmental Impacts, International Natural Hazards Society, Purgia, Italy.

Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1991, August 4-9). Risk perceptions of natural and technological hazards: The role of trust. International symposium on Geological Hazards in Developing Countries and Their Environmental Impacts, International Hazards Society, Perugia, Italy.

Mushkatel, A. H., & Pijawka, D. (1992, November 22). Public perceptions of hazardous facilities. Paper presented at "Hazards and society: Strategies for the 21st century," Arizona State University.

Mushkatel, A. H., Pijawka, D., Dantico, M., & Ibitayo, 0. (1991, February 16). Political trust and risk perceptions of the high-level nuclear waste repository. Annual Conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC.

Richards, R., & Krannich, R. S. (1989, August). Risk perceptions of a nuclear waste repository in rural Nevada communities. Presented at the annual meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, Seattle, WA.

Rusco, M. K. (1992, October). Southern Paiute leadership patterns in the 20th century as a reflection of kinship networks. Paper presented at Great Basin Anthropological Conference, Boise, ID.

Tuler, S., Kasperson, R. E., & Ratick, S. (1988, October 30-November 2). Human reliability and risk management in the transportation of spent nuclear @el. Annual Meetings of the Social for Risk Analysis, Washington, DC.


Documents

June, - Nevadastate.nv.us/nucwaste/library/se-056-93.pdf · Catherine Fowler, John Gervers, Robert Halstead, Roger Kasperson, Richard Krannich, Howard Kunreuther, Ronald Little, C.K