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Department: Development
June 2014
Important Notes: 1. This report is Confidential as it contains Data, Information and
Intellectual Property of Fernridge Consulting (Limited Distribution) Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting.
2. This report was done to determine the viability of a shopping centre. Any tenant recommendations made in this report are anecdotal and not substantiated through primary research. Retailers must do their own research.
Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting 2
Client’s Brief
Fernridge was commissioned by JT Group to calculate the area demographics, market demand,
and viability of a shopping centre development in Zamdela, Sasolburg. The retail site (Business
Erf 22736) is 24,814m² (with potential of an additional, adjacent 8,074m²), surrounded by 346
proposed residential units (entry level bonded).
Table of Content:
Site Dynamics
Site Evaluation Modeling
Retail Survey
Demographic Analysis
Density Modeling
Retail Potential Estimate
SWOT Analysis
Recommendations
Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting 3
Orientation
Regional Orientation Area Orientation
Catchment Area
Site Overview
Micro Site Overview Site Photos Site Plan Site Evaluation Model
Retail Survey
Macro Retail Overview
Retail Sasolburg CBD
Retail within catchment
Retail Vanderbijlpark
Demographic Overview
Density Modeling Calculating Demographics Catchment Demographics Demographic Breakdown
Retail Potential Estimates
Retail Potential Estimate – 2016
SWOT Analysis & Conclusion Proposed Retail Mix Contact Details
Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting 4
Regional Orientation Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: Microsoft Bing Aerial
5
Main Places
• Zamdela is a township adjacent
Sasolburg in the northern part of the
Free State Province.
• This township was originally established
in order to accommodate workers at the
Sasol plant in Sasolburg.
• Currently there is a lack of formal retail
in Zamdela thus residents travel to
Sasolburg CBD, Vanderbijlpark and
Vereeniging for their shopping needs.
• The proposed site is located in Zamdela
in the proximity of a train station in the
area.
Proposed Site
Area Orientation 6 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: Microsoft Bing Aerial Photography & 2014 Fieldwork
Sasolburg Formal Residential
CBD Industrial Area
Mining
Middle to Low Income Residential
Proposed Site
• Zamdela is located to the south of Sasolburg
separated from the formal town by a stroke of
industrial uses.
• The Sasol petroleum company has plant in this
industrial area where it runs its operations.
• Most of the retail is located mainly in the CBD of
Sasolburg. This could be attributed to the town’s
layout that contain retail in one central node.
Towards Heilbron ± 55km
Towards Vanderbijlpark ± 33km
Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting 7
Retail Overview 8 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: Microsoft Bing Aerial Photography & 2014 Fieldwork
The presence of a strong retail node in the Sasolburg CBD had an influence on delineating the north western boundary of the catchment area.
Sasolburg
• A catchment area was delineated which
represents the area of support expected for
the proposed retail centre.
• The catchment includes the whole township
of Zamdela.
• Factors that had an influence on the
delineation of the catchment were the
presence of strong retail nodes (Sasolburg
CBD), physical & psychological barriers
(roads) and population spread were all taken
into account.
Population spread had an influence on the delineation of the southern boundary of the catchment area.
Outflow to Sasolburg
Proposed Site
Catchment Area
Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting 9
Micro Site Location 10 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: Microsoft Bing Aerial Photography & 2014 Fieldwork
Photo direction (See next slide)
Proposed Site Approximate Position
Proposed Zambedela Township
Rail Depot
1
2
3
Pedestrian Bridge
• The proposed retail centre is planned to be located
along the main road through the south eastern part
of Zamdela township.
• The centre is planned to form part of a mixed use
development which is proposed to include ± 346
residential units.
• A rail line north west of the proposed site forms a
prominent physical barrier to movement (could
affect the support to the proposed retail centre)
however, a pedestrian bridge is currently present
which allow pedestrians to cross this rail line.
Site Photos Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: 2014 Site Visit
11
June 2014
June 2014 June 2014
1 The proposed site is located along the main road in the area – good visibility of the proposed site.
Currently the main road passing the proposed site handles low traffic volumes.
2 3 A pedestrian bridge that cross the rail lines provides access for pedestrians / rail commuters to the proposed site.
Rail line and rail related buildings
Main Road
Main Road
To the R59 intersection
Site Plan 12 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: 2014 Fieldwork
Proposed Site Approximate Position
Potential land that can be acquired expand the proposed retail centre
• Zamdela Ext. 17 is a proposed
mix development which is
planned to include the proposed
retail centre, ± 346 residential
units (bonded), community
facilities and municipal uses.
Site Evaluation Model
• The site rates as good (67%) based on a current as is situation. It enjoys good visibility and is
well located in the residential fabric of the area with few competitors.
• Although a train station is located near the proposed site the area around the proposed site
lacks synergy during the day with low traffic volumes along the main road passing the site.
• Rail lines parallel to the site hamper movement between the northern and southern part of
Zamdela due to a lack of access roads / bridges that cross the rail line (impact on access to site).
• A formal public transport depot must be established on the proposed site in order to attract
the critical mass needed for the proposed retail centre.
13 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: 2014 Fieldwork
Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting 14
Macro Retail Overview 15 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: Microsoft Bing Aerial Photography, Fernridge’s Database & 2014 Fieldwork
Proposed Site
Catchment Area
Sasolburg Node
Vanderbijlpark & Vereeniging
Vereeniging CBD
• Currently there are no formal shopping centers
within the catchment except for some independent
line shops and informal traders.
• The result is that outflow from the catchment
mainly occur to Sasolburg CBD which is the nearest
node with a relatively strong retail offering.
• Sasolburg CBD cater for all income groups where
the most prominent centers are the Shoprite Centre
(± 14,768m² GLA) and Sasolburg Square (± 8,627m²
GLA).
• For higher order goods and a large retail variety
outflow can occur as far as Vanderbijlpark and
Vereeniging.
• A retail centre that focus on the basic needs of
catchment residents can retain some of the outflow
that currently occur.
Sasolburg CBD Retail 16 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: 2014 Fieldwork & Microsoft Bing Aerial Photography
May 2014
A pedestrian walkway links various retailers from the Shoprite SC in the north to Sasolburg Square to the south.
Sasolburg Square : ±8,627m² GLA
Shoprite Centre: ±14,668m² GLA
• The Shoprite Centre and
Sasolburg Square are all well
linked via a pedestrian
walkway through the CBD.
• Where Sasolburg Square
focus on the middle to
higher income groups, the
Shoprite Centre focus on
middle to lower income
groups.
• Along the pedestrian
walkway various furniture,
fashion, and small non-
national tenants can be
found.
Motown Centre: ±5,000m² GLA
FNB Centre: ±3,200m² GLA
Retail within Catchment Area 17 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: 2014 Fieldwork
•Ackermans •Cash Crusaders •Cell C •Clicks •CNA •Crazy Store •Debonairs Pizza •FNB ATM •Melins Style •Milady's •Musica •Nedbank ATM •Pick n Pay
•Post Net •Riverside Apteek •Sheet Street •Steers •Truworths •Uzi •Vodacom •Waltons •Wimpy •Woolworths Food
May 2014
• This is a centre with a good tenant mix that
focus on the middle to upper income groups.
•ABSA •African Bank •American Swiss •Atlas Finance •Bears •Best Electric •Capitec •Edgars •Ellerines •Exact! •Express Stores •Foschini •Imperial •Imperial Fruit Market •Jam •Jet •Jet Mart •Joshua Doore •Leibrandr Pharmacy •Lewis •Mancorp Finance
•Markham •Mens Clinic •Morkels •Mr Price •Old Mutual •Orange •Pep •Pep •Pie City •Pizza Den •Pro Sound •RCA Liquor •Shoe Junxion •Shoe Zone •Shoprite •Spur •Standardbank ATM •Sweet Point •The Fish & Chips Co •Tyson Shoes
• The Shoprite Centre
mostly cater for the middle
to lower income groups.
• A pedestrian walkway
through the CBD link the
Shoprite centre with other
retailers along this
pedestrian walkway. May 2014
Existing Retail (ii) Retail Supply – CBD Vanderbijlpark Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: 2014 Fieldwork & Fernridge Data Base
18
Significant line shops in CBD with independents and nationals. Line shops include stores such as: Best Home Electric, Morkels, Price ‘n Pride, Ellerines, OK Furniture, Fair Price, Joshua Doore, Bradlows, Bears, Electric Express.
Size: ± 18,500m² Community Centre Anchor: Shoprite Other major tenants: Clicks, Ackermans, Truworths, Pep, Webbers, Markham, Legit, Fashion Express, Rage, American Swiss, Bimbo’s, Ok Power Express, Game Zone, FNB, Capitec, Sterns, Standard Bank, Pie City. Address: Cnr. DF Malan & Attie Fourie Streets, Vanderbijlpark
Size: ± 18,199 m² Neighbourhood Centre Major tenants: Edgars, Jet, Foschini , Bata, Guess, Mr Price Address: Cnr. DF Malan & Attie Fourite Streets, Vanderbijlpark
Size: ± 13,311 m² Community Centre Anchor: Checkers Hyper Other tenants: Super Liquors, Video Town, Vision Centre, Crazy Plastics, Altech, Audio Pulse, Pep. Address: Cnr. Jan van Riebeeck & JW Musket Streets, Vanderbijlpark
August 2012
August 2012
August 2012
August 2012
Existing Retail (ii) Retail Supply - Vanderbijlpark Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: 2014 Fieldwork & Fernridge Data Base
19
•Vaal Mall is the largest mall in the
Vanderbijlpark area.
• The mall has a large retail variety and
serves all income groups.
•@Home •Absa Branch •Ackermans •American Swiss •Amigo Spur •Barbiere Di Vesuvio •Bargain Books •Bata •Beauty Factory •Bidvest Bank •Biltong 4 Africa •Boardmans •Boutique Riandi •BT Games •Cape Union Mart •Capitec Bank •Cardies •Cartridge Shop •Cash Crusaders •Cash Crusaders Buy Shop •Cell C •Chicken Licken •Chip 'n Dip •Clicks •CNA •Contempo •CUM Books •Debonairs •Delhi Delicious •Dis-Chem •Donna-Claire •Exact! •F N B •Fashion Express •Fleurette Florist •Foschini •Fruitti Nutti •Galaxy & Co. •Glomail •Golden Touch Jewellers
•Gospel Direct •Hang Ten •Happy Feet •Hi-Fi Corporation •House of Coffees •ICI Marketing •Identity •Incredible Connection •Jay Jay's •Jeep •Jet •Jewellery Design Company •John Craig •John Dory's •Jump Street •Kelly •KFC •King Pie •Kleins •Kodak Express •Le Chique •Linen & Bath •Markham •Mellin i Style Optometrist •Milady's •Mix It Ice Cream and Frozen Yoghurt •Mr Price Home •Mr Price Weekend •MTN •Mugg & Bean •Musica •Nedbank - Branch •Next Field •NWJ Fine Jewellery •Old Khaki •Panarottis •Pep •Persian Carpet Gallery •Phase 2 CD •Pick n Pay
•Pick n Pay Clothing •Placécol •Postnet •Print Smart •Queenspark •Rage •Ravats Jewellers •Reggies •Sass Diva •Sausage Saloon •Sheet Street •Shoe City •Sidewalk Surfer •Signature Cosmetics •Solo •Spec-Savers •Spitz •Sportscene •Standard Bank - Branch •Steers •Sunglass Hut •Telkom Direct •The Carpet & Rug Shop •The Nail Hut •The Scoin Shop •Tip Top Bakery •Torga Optical •Totalsports •Truworths •Uzzi •Verimark Direct •Virgin Mobile •Vodacom 4U •Wiesenhof Coffees •Wimpy •Woolworths
Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting 20
Developments 21 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: Metsimaholo Spatial Development Framework Plan
Proposed Site
• This map is an extract of the Spatial Development Plans for Zamdela.
• As indicated on the map the CBD of Zamdela is currently identified as a central area of the township. According to
the spatial plans the CBD is not properly structured and therefore development are to be promote in this node.
• Also prominent is that land set aside for social housing development in the vicinity of the proposed site (across
the rail lines) and light industrial development. Such uses can add to the support for the proposed retail centre.
Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting 22
Dwelling Density Model
“Where are the people?”
23 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: 2011 Aerial Photography & Microsoft Bing Aerial Photography
• The dwelling density
technique is applied to the
demographic data in order to
establish the dwelling density;
thus this technique
incorporates the first of two
important variables for retail:
density of dwellings.
• Each area is “weighed” by
the number of dwellings to
create this hot to cold
shading. The densest areas
(red) have a high density of
dwellings.
• Evident from the map is that
there are small pockets of
high density areas scattered
over the catchment.
• However, the highest
densities occur to the north
western area of the
catchment.
Catchment Area
High Dwelling Densities
Proposed Site
Value Density Model
“Where is the money?”
24 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Source: 2011 Aerial Photography & Microsoft Bing Aerial Photography
• The dwelling density technique is
applied to the income demographic
data in order to establish “the density
of money”; thus this technique
incorporates the second of the two
important variables for retail: retail
expenditure.
• Each dwelling is “weighed” by its
income and associated retail
expenditure to create this hot to cold
shading. The densest areas (red) have
a high density of retail expenditure.
Catchment Area
High Value Densities
Proposed Site
• The Fernridge Dwelling points were
used to extrapolate the
demographics within the catchment
area.
• It is imperative to make use of the
most recent demographic data. The
last official census that was
conducted in South Africa was in
2011. The Africa Eye Dwelling points
data set makes use of the latest
(2011) aerial photography as well as
fieldwork (2014) to ensure the most
up to date information available.
• Each point in this data set
represents a dwelling, the dwellings
are then classified in terms of “type
of dwelling” and “dwelling income”.
• The Africa Eye Dwelling points data
set is one of the most accurate
datasets, in terms of demographics,
available in South Africa.
Dwelling Classification Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: Microsoft Bing Aerial Photography, 2011 Aerial Photography & 2014 Fieldwork
25
Please Note: Fernridge endeavored to provide you with the most accurate
dwelling count based on the aerial imagery available to us at the time.
Proposed Site
Catchment Area
Study Area Demographics 26 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: Microsoft Bing Aerial Photography, 2011 Aerial Photography and 2014 Fieldwork
Please Note: Fernridge endeavored to provide you with
the most accurate dwelling count based on the aerial
imagery available to us at the time.
• Demographics for the study area were
calculated using 2011 high resolution aerial
photography (Africa Eye Dwelling Counts),
in combination with 2014 Fieldwork.
• The 2011 Africa Eye Dwelling counts were
updated with the latest 2014 fieldwork.
• Fieldwork revealed that the area is well
established with no prominent new
housing developments (low growth rate).
• Thus an annual growth rate (± 1%) was
calculated for the catchment which was
used to project a 2014 dwelling count and
beyond.
• However the proposed Zamdela Ext 17
residential development, can ensure
continued residential growth for the
catchment in the long run (completion
could be market related).
Catchment Area
Proposed Site
The Rail line partly split the demographic market being a physical barrier.
Source: 2001 Official census Catchment Area Demographics (i) 27 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: 2011 National Census
Language & Race: Particular tastes and
Preferences
• The catchment area’s population mainly
speaks African languages (± 96%). Other
languages (2%), Afrikaans (1%) and English
(1%) are a minority in the catchment area.
• The catchment area is dominated by black
households (99%).
Afrikaans 1%
English 1%
African Language 96%
Other Language 2%
Language Per Person
99%
1%
Racial Groups per Household
Black
Coloured
Indian & Asian
White
Other
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Education People Over 20
Tertiary Education
Matriculated
Some High School
Complete primary
Some primary
No schooling
Source: 2001 Official census Catchment Area Demographics (ii) 28 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: 2011 National Census
• A minority of the population (25%) has matriculated or
have a higher education degree.
• The dominant age group in the area falls between 20 and
34 years of age – young adult profile.
Education: An indication of the
sophistication of the consumer.
Age: Different generations
Only 25% of the population has at least matriculated or have a higher education degree.
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000
0 to 4
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 84
Number of People
Age
Gro
up
ings
Age Profiles per Person
Source: 2001 Official census Catchment Area Demographics (iii) 29 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: 2011 National Census
• The unemployment rate is 31% and the employed population 39%. The
remainder (30%) is not economically active.
• The formal sector employs the highest amount of people in the
catchment area followed by private households.
Employment Status/Sector: An
indication of the sophistication of the
consumer.
39%
31%
30%
Employment Status(people aged 15 to 65) Employed
Unemployed
Not Economically Active
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Formal Sector Informal Sector Private Household
73%
10%17%
Employment per Sector(Persons aged 16 to 65)
Source: 2001 Official census Catchment Area Demographics (iv) 30 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: 2011 National Census & projected 2014 Africa Dwelling Points
• The area’s dwelling fabric mainly consists of formal houses (64%)
followed by shacks (33%) and flats (3%).
• Income groups represents projected 2014 Africa Eye dwelling counts.
• The catchment is dominated by middle income dwellings (67% - B, C,
D) while lower income households (33% - D Low, D Zero) are less
represented.
Income: The ability to act / purchase
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
House Cluster Flat Shack Informal Backyard
Plot Other
64%
0%3%
33%
0% 0% 0%
Type Dwelling
A++0%
A+0%
A0%
B0%
C4%
D63%
26%
7%
Income Groups per HouseholdA++
A+
A
B
C
D
Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting 31
Retail Potential Estimate Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting Source: Africa Eye dwelling points projected to 2016
32
• The projected 2016 catchment area demographics warrant an estimated total of ± 81,700m² GLA retail space.
• We have assigned an anticipated market share for each retail category. Their market shares were applied taking into consideration the type & size of
the proposed retail centre, site location and relative competition in and outside the catchment area.
• The projected 2016 demographics for the catchment indicates that a retail centre of ± 11,000m² GLA which needs to capture on average ± 13% of the
market can be feasible. We believe this is an achievable market share to obtain especially considering that there are no formal retail currently present in
the catchment.
• Considering the size limitations of the proposed site (Erf 22736 = 24,814m²) a centre sized ± 8,000m² GLA (approximately a third of the site) could be
constructed; and if the adjacent property (sized 8,074m²) can be acquired and consolidated then a centre sized ± 11,000m² GLA could constructed.
• In our opinion centre sized ± 11,000m² GLA could be feasible in theory at the proposed site requiring a ± 13% market share (if both properties can be
consolidated to accommodate such a sized centre).
Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting 33
SWOT Analysis
Strengths • No formal retail centres are currently present in the catchment.
• A train station is located near the proposed site.
• Good visibility of the proposed site from the main road.
• Residential and light industrial developments are planned in the area (Zamdela Ext. 17 & growth nodes set out by the city spatial plans).
Weaknesses • Although a train station is present the area lacks synergy.
• The rail lines through the catchment forms a physical barrier to movement isolating the proposed site in terms of access (split the demographic market).
• Low traffic volumes during the day.
• Not a prominent node or located at a prominent intersection (activity nodes are currently located to the north western side of the catchment).
Opportunities • Create a vibrant node at the proposed site - transport node with complimentary facilities.
• An attractive centre with a good tenant mix able to attract residents from all over the catchment (a mini destination).
• The proposed Zamdela Ext 17 development can be a model for more mixed developments in the vicinity of the proposed site.
• Community facilities and municipal uses could materialise as planned around the proposed site which can aid in the formation of a node.
• Possibility of constructing roads and pedestrian bridges that cross the rail line – link site with more of Zamdela’s residents.
Threats • The rail lines through the catchment remain a physical barrier so that the centre can struggle to attract support from residents north west of the rail line.
• The site does not develop into a node, only serves as a small convenience centre for surrounding residents.
• Complimentary facilities does not settle here, the area continue to lack good synergy.
34 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Conclusion
Summary • The proposed site is located in Zamdela which is a township located adjacent Sasolburg in the Free Sate province. A residential development “Zamdela Ext. 17” is
planned around the proposed retail site with ± 346 residential units (entry level bonded).
• A catchment area was delineated which represents the expected area of support for the proposed retail development. Factors that were taken into account when
delineating the catchment were mainly the presence of strong retail nodes (Sasolburg CBD) and population spread. Basically the catchment encapsulate the whole of
Zamdela.
•The site rated as good (67%). It was rated on an “as is” (current) scenario. The site enjoy good visibility from the main road and the site is well located within the
residential fabric of the area.
•Although the proposed site is centrally located within the residential fabric of the catchment area, rail lines divide the township with only a few roads crossing the line
and one pedestrian bridge (hamper access to the proposed site). This highlights the importance of creating a prominent node at the proposed site in order to attract all
residents within the catchment area.
•The train station located opposite the proposed site could provided support for the proposed centre and aid in creating a node provided a public transport hub can also
be created on the proposed site. Currently low traffic volumes exists along the main road passing the proposed site and the area lacks synergy.
•Currently there are no formal retail centers within the catchment area. Outflow mainly occur to the CBD of Sasolburg as this is the nearest node to the proposed site
however, for higher order goods and a larger retail variety outflow could occur to Vanderbijlpark and Vereeniging where various prominent centers are located such as
Vaal Mall (± 48,000m² GLA).
• Demographics for the catchment ware calculated using 2011 Aerial Photography (Africa Eye HSE points) and 2014 Fieldwork. A ± 1% annual household growth rate was
calculated for the catchment. This annual growth rate (± 1%) was used to project a 2014 demographic count and projected beyond 2014. If the proposed ± 346
residential units (entry level bonded) materialize for Zamdela Ext. 17 then growth can be expected in the long run however, timelines for such a development are market
related.
• Spatial development plans for the Zamdela area indicates that land is set aside for social housing development in the vicinity of the proposed site (across the rail lines)
which is planned to include a light industrial development. Such developments can add to the support for the proposed retail centre.
•The projected 2014 Africa Eye dwelling points indicates that the catchment is dominated by middle income dwellings (67% - B, C, D) while lower income dwellings are
less represented (33% - D Low, D Zero) and higher income groups are limited / not present in the catchment. This is an indication that the proposed retail development
should focus on the middle to lower income residents.
35 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Conclusion
• The projected 2016 catchment area demographics warrant an estimated total of ± 81,700m² GLA retail space.
• As indicated in the report the size of the proposed site ultimately limits the maximum size of the proposed centre. A maximum of ± 8,000m² GLA can be built on Erf
22736 and potentially ± 11,000m² GLA if additional land adjacent to the site can be consolidated (based on the assumption that a third of the site can be developed).
• The projected 2016 catchment area demographics indicates that a centre of ± 11,000m² GLA requires a moderate ± 13% market share. We are of the opinion that such
a sized centre (± 11,000m² GLA ) can be feasible based on the projected 2016 demographics however, the size of the site will be the main constraint on the size.
• A concern will be the ability of the site to pull support from across the rail lines (north western part of catchment) as the rail lines forms a physical barrier which split the
demographic market to some degree.
Recommendations • As mentioned the rail lines along the site forms a physical barrier which split the market in terms of access. Important will be to create a prominent node at the
proposed site which can attract people from the whole catchment area. This can be done as follows:
1) A public transport hub must be established on the proposed site in order to generate the critical mass needed for the proposed centre. The existing rail
station can be a complimentary facility in establishing a prominent transport node at the proposed site.
2) Signage will be important along main routes to direct people to the proposed centre.
3) The proposed centre should host a good tenant mix (high percentage of national tenants, low vacancies) that focus on the middle to lower income groups.
• We recommend that potential land can be consolidated to have the option available to construct a centre up to ± 11,000m² GLA as the demographic potential is there
in theory for such a sized centre which would require an achievable ± 13% market share.
• However, to minimise risk, a first phase centre of ± 8,000m² GLA can be considered on Erf 22736 which would require a lower market share of ± 10%. This can allow
the centre to develop into a node and test the market as no other formal centres are currently available in the catchment to measure the market against.
• If the first phase centre can prove to develop into a prominent node able to attract support from the whole catchment as a mini destination, then a second phase can
be considered to increase the centre up to ± 11,000m² GLA (± 13% market share required) - provided the market allows expansion (Zamdela Ext 17 residential
component is fully occupies), tenants trade well, more space is required by tenants and no vacancies exists. Note potential land will be required for phase 2.
36 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Proposed Tenant Mix
• The proposed retail centre should host an attractive tenant mix in order to receive optimal support from the Catchment area as well as possible passing trade.
• The proposed centre should be of such a nature (design, layout, etc.) that it will be able to cater for the basic needs in the area of middle to low income groups.
• Please note that this is merely an indication of possible tenants and does not warrant the inclusion of any proposed tenant below or exclusion of ones not listed. The following suggested tenant mix has not been tested through a primary research project (questionnaires).
Suggested tenants according to the findings of this External Market Evaluation:
• FOOD
• Primary anchor – Spar, Shoprite, etc.
• Secondary anchor – Hardware / Building Materials such as Build It or Cashbuild.
• SERVICE component including Banks & ATMs (ABSA, Capitec, Standard Bank, African Bank), Cell phone Shop (Vodacom, MTN, Cell C), Mutiserv,
Post Office (relocation), Post Net, Dry Cleaners etc.
• SPECIALITY STORES Other line shops such as a Liquor Store (Spar Tops), Salon, Pharmacy , Health & Beauty, Roots Butchery, Cash Crusaders,
Sheet Street, Stationary Shops , etc.
• RESTAURANTS & TAKE AWAY (Wine & Dine)
• Nando’s, Chesa Nyama ,Old Fashioned Fish & Chips, Pie City, King Pie, Hungry Lion, Chicken Licken, Mochachos, Barcello’s, Steers, Debonairs,
Romans Pizza, Pantsula Bites etc.
• CFTA (Clothing, Footwear, Textiles and Accessories) and FURNITURE
• Ackermans, Bata, Pep, Fashion Express, Fashion World, Shoe Zone, Identity, Legit, Exact, Dunns, Studio 88, Jet etc.
• OK Furniture, Morkels, Bears, Lewis, Ellerines (Furniture stores should be limited to one or two national tenants).
PLEASE NOTE: This is an objective, independent market report with the sole aim of limiting risk for our client and to optimize development potential. Similarly, Fernridge cannot be held responsible for the failure or under performance of any development, as many other aspects, apart from demographic potential, determine the ultimate success or failure of a scheme.
37 Copyright 2014: Fernridge Consulting
Fernridge Consulting (Pty) Ltd Keystone House Stonemill Office Park P.O. Box 31266 300 Acacia Road Braamfontein Darrenwood (Cresta) 2017 Johannesburg South Africa Tel: +27 11 583 0900 Fax: +27 87 942 6469 BB-BEE Level 3 contributor
If you have any queries, please contact: Sybrand Strauss
Managing Director e-mail: [email protected]
Fernridge Consulting (Pty) Ltd is a retail / property optimization consultancy that was founded in 2002. We are based in Johannesburg, South Africa and specialize in
spatial analysis using GIS (Geographic Information Systems) technology, the latest demographic data and client information. We are a subsidiary of Capital Eye
Investments (formerly The UCS Group).
We conduct ± 15 shopping centre / mixed use development / revamp studies per month conducted in all nine South African provinces, as well as neighboring countries
(such as Namibia, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Mozambique, Zimbabwe) and other African countries (Zambia, Malawi, Ghana, Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya,
Uganda, Rwanda, DRC). We offer this service to banks, landlords, property managers, corporate and private investors and developers.
We also assist some of the leading Retail, Health Care and Education groups in South Africa in their African store expansion and rationalization strategies, location
analyses etc. Our clients include, among others: Spar, Woolworths, McDonald’s, Nando’s, Spur, Virgin Active, JD Group, Midas, Clicks, Mica, Netcare, Advtech etc.
This is an objective, independent market report with the sole aim of limiting risk for our client and optimizing development potential. Fernridge Consulting (Pty) Ltd has taken every care in the preparation of this report. The sources of information used are believed to be accurate and reliable, but no guarantee of accuracy or completeness can be given. Neither Fernridge, nor any Capital Eye Investments Group subsidiary, nor any director, representative or employee of Fernridge, accepts liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document or its content. The information and opinions contained in this report are subject to change without notice. Many other aspects, apart from demographic potential, determine the ultimate success or failure of a scheme.
CV & Contact Details www.fernridge.co.za
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