13
1 JUNE 19, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. This week, we held our third monthly Disruptor’s Breakfast, meeting four companies in the ecommerce space and one in education Amazon is exploring hiring regular people to make deliveries and recruiting brickmortarstores to store packages Hudson’s Bay announced plans to the parent company of Germany’s biggest department store chain, Kaufhof, for €2.83 billion Nearly half of those surveyed in the AsiaPacific region used a smartphone to make a purchase in the past three months of 2014 Weekly Insights DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director, Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected] New York: 646.839.7017 June 19, 2015

JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  1

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

                                             

 

 

 

 

 

This  week,  we  held  our  third  monthly  Disruptor’s  Breakfast,  meeting  four  companies  in  the  e-­‐commerce  space  and  one  in  education  

Amazon  is  exploring  hiring  regular  people  to  make  deliveries  and  recruiting  brick-­‐mortar-­‐stores  to  store  packages  

Hudson’s  Bay  announced  plans  to  the  parent  company  of  Germany’s  biggest  department  store  chain,  Kaufhof,  for  €2.83  billion  

Nearly  half  of  those  surveyed  in  the  Asia-­‐Pacific  region  used  a  smartphone  to  make  a  purchase  in  the  past  three  months  of  2014  

Weekly Insights D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G

E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r , H e a d o f G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e

d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m N e w Y o r k : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7

June 19, 2015

Page 2: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  2

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

FROM  THE  DESK  OF  DEBORAH  WEINSWIG  

This  week,  we  held  our  third  monthly  Disruptors’  Breakfast  with  top  startups  at  our  Hong  Kong  headquarters,  in  conjunction  with  entrepreneurship  community  CoCoon.  CoCoon  offers  a  coworking  space  where  entrepreneurs,  creative   talent   and   investors   can   meet,   collaborate   and   deliver   results   together.   The   organization   has   been  around  for  three  years  and  has  worked  with  100  startups.  These  startups  have  raised  a  total  of  US$16.4  million  (HK$127  million).  Although  this  figure  is  not  large  by  US  standards,  it’s  highly  significant  because  CoCoon  started  from  zero  just  three  years  ago.  Moreover,  it  maintains  a  network  of  more  than  7,400  individuals,  including  more  than  850  entrepreneurs,  industry  leaders,  investors  and  students,  and  has  held  more  than  300  entrepreneurship  events.  

The  companies  that  CoCoon  showcased  this  week  included  four  in  the  e-­‐commerce  and  e-­‐payment  space  and  one  online  education  startup:  

Around   started   as   a   neighborhood   network,   winning   the   Google   EYE   (Empowering   Young   Entrepreneurs)  program  in  2014,  which  came  with  a  $100,000  stipend  and  use  of  Google’s  infrastructure.  Today,  the  company  is  installing   a   citywide   network   of   Bluetooth   beacons   at   small   shops   in  Hong   Kong,   and   consumers  who   “like”  a  particular  shop  on  Facebook  can  receive  points  for  their  initial  and  repeat  visits,  which  they  can  redeem  for  gifts  or  offers.  The   retailers  hosting   the  beacons   receive  an   increase   in  customer   traffic   to  both   their  physical   stores  and   their   Facebook   pages.   Around   is   collecting   valuable   data,   such   as   dwell   analytics,   location   analytics   and  traffic  synergies  between  stores.  

Cashyou  solves  the  vexing  problem  of  making  small  payments  to  friends  or  businesses  that  lack  sufficient  change  (for  example,  when  splitting  the  check  at  lunch).  Bank  transfers  are  relatively  expensive  and  are  uneconomical  for  small  payments.  Cashyou  offers  a  mobile  wallet   that  enables  a   transfer  based  on  a  barcode  or  e-­‐mail  address,  and  the  company  has  accounts  at  all  major   local  banks   to  enable   local  bank  transfers  and  withdrawals   free  of  charge.  Transfers  are  generally  completed  in  one  business  day,  which  is  faster  than  nearly  all  traditional  transfer  methods.  There’s  an  additional  fee  structure  for  companies,  large  enterprises  and  large  transfers.  At  present,  the  platform  only  works   locally   in  Hong  Kong  using  Hong  Kong  dollars.  However,   Cashyou   is   exploring   offering   its  platform  internationally.  

Outwhiz  is  a  three-­‐month-­‐old  company  taking  on  math  and  English  education  in  the  $4  trillion  global  education  market.  Although  the  space  appears  crowded  with  test-­‐prep  companies  and  for-­‐profit  schools,  Outwhiz’s  founder  believes  that  the  industry  is  still  in  its  early  stages  in  terms  of  operating  and  business  models  as  well  as  models  of  student  engagement.  Outwhiz  offers  a   free  subscription  service  through  which  students  can  study  and  practice  math  and  English  on  mobile  devices.  Subscribing  kids  can  earn  real-­‐life  awards  (prizes)  for  achieving  goals,  and  there   is   a   suite   of   analytics   and   statistics   for   parents.   Though   math   and   English   are   the   first   major   subjects  offered,  the  platform  can  be  expanded  for  other  subjects,  such  as  Mandarin  Chinese.  

Shopline  offers  a  do-­‐it-­‐yourself  e-­‐commerce  platform  for   retailers   in  Asia.   Its  e-­‐commerce  sites  are  designed  to  work  equally  well  on  a  PC,  tablet  or  mobile  phone.  Initial  clients  include  a  Taiwanese  jewelry  company,  a  South  Korean  beauty   and   cosmetics   brand,   and  an  accessories   company  with   hundreds   of   products   and  hundreds   of  thousands  of  dollars  in  sales.  The  platform  offers  a  comprehensive,  localized  dashboard  and  supports  many  kinds  of   local  payment  methods.  Moreover,   shipping  can  be  selected  according   to   local  options.  Merchants  have   the  ability  to  communicate  directly  with  customers,  and  the  retailer  can  use  its  own  domain  name  and/or  create  an  instant   online   shop   on   Facebook.   The   platform   receives   70%   of   its   traffic   from  mobile   devices   and  more   than  32,000  shops  have  launched  on  it.  

TofuPay  calls  itself  a  localized  online  payment  solution.  The  Tofu  network  sits  between  a  merchant  and  a  credit-­‐card   network   and   provides   clear   and   simple   payment   forms,   which   can   be   customized   to   use   the  merchant’s  design,   for   either   desktop   or   mobile   devices.   The   platform   also   offers   advanced   analytics   and   multicurrency  management.   A   major   source   of   appeal   is   its   transparent   pricing,   with   a   fixed   percentage   and   fee   (one   for  domestic  credit  cards  and  one  for  foreign  cards)  per  transaction,  with  no  setup  or  monthly  fees.  This  transparent  fee   structure   and   the   fixed   percentage   rates   contrast   with   other   platforms,   which   have   a  myriad   of   fees   and  progressive  fee  structures.  

Although   some   advanced   payment   systems   already   exist   in   Hong   Kong,   such   as   the   ubiquitous   RFID-­‐based  Octopus   card   payment   network,   there   are   numerous   opportunities   for   improvement,   as   evidenced   by   these  dynamic   founders’   ideas  and  startups.  Hong  Kong  seems  an   ideal   environment   for   startups   to   test  and  perfect  their   concepts   and   business   models,   which   can   later   be   expanded   throughout   Asia   and   globally.   We’re  particularly  excited  about  Around’s  deployment  of  a  citywide  beacon  network,  which  can  fully  demonstrate  the  power  and  elegance  of  beacon  technology—this  is  currently  possible  only  in  a  small,  manageable,  shopping-­‐mad  city  such  as  Hong  Kong.  

 

Page 3: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  3

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

 

                   

 

 

               

 

UK  Wage  Growth  Figure  1.  YoY  %  Change  in  Average  Weekly  Earnings  

   

Source:  Office  for  National  Statistics      

• British  workers  are  seeing  strengthening  earnings  growth.  • Coupled   with   ultra-­‐low   deflation,   including   deflation   in   the   non-­‐discretionary   food   and  

automotive  fuel  categories,  this  is  giving  a  boost  to  shoppers’  spending  power.  • At  the  same  time,  a  fresh  round  of  austerity  measures  is  imminent,  which  will  likely  hit  in-­‐work  

state  benefits.      

2.6  

(2.0)  

(1.0)  

0.0    

1.0    

2.0    

3.0    

4.0    

5.0    

Jan  14  

Feb  14  

Mar  14  

Apr  14  

May  14  

Jun  14  

Jul  14   Aug  14  

Sep  14  

Oct  14  

Nov  14  

Dec  14  

Jan  15  

Feb  15  

Mar  15  

Apr  15  

%  

FBIC  HAPPENINGS  &  WEINSWIG’S  WATCH  ING    

• This   week,   FBIC’s   New   York   team   attended   the   Retail   Innovation   Conference,   which  highlighted   the   latest   in   innovative   retail   business   concepts,   social   media   strategies   for  brands  and  updates  on  wearables.  

• In   the   UK,   London   Technology   Week   is   under   way.   This   series   of   events   includes  conferences,  workshops,  pitch  contests  and  more.  

• From   June   19–21,   Deborah   Weinswig   and   the   FBIC   Hong   Kong   team   will   attend   the  Shenzhen  Maker  Faire,  which  showcases  invention,  creativity  and  the  Maker  movement.  

CHART  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

STAT  OF  THE  WEEK  

  • Greece’s  national  debt  as  %  of  GDP.  

• Europe   is   preparing   for   a   possible  Greek   exit   from   the  Eurozone  currency   bloc,   as   the   Greek   government   refuses   to   implement  austerity  measures  required  by  its  lenders  to  unlock  further  loans.  

 

177%  Source:  BBC  News  

 

Page 4: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  4

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

 

US  RETAIL  TRAFFIC      Figure  2.  US  Weekly  Store  Traffic:  YoY  %  Change  

   Through  June  13,  2015  Source:  ShopperTrak    • Overall  store  traffic  for  the  week  ended  June  13  declined  by  7.7%,  its  seventh  consecutive  weekly  decline.  

• Apparel  and  electronics  store  traffic  decreased  by  3.7%  and  3.9%,  respectively.  

• Men’s  apparel  and  electronics  store  traffic  should  be  lifted  by  the  late  Father’s  Day  in  the  coming  week.  

US  REGULAR  GASOLINE  PRICES  

Figure  3.  US  Regular  Gasoline  Prices  (USD  per  Gallon)  

    06/01/15   06/08/15   06/15/15       Week  Ago   Year  Ago  

             US   2.780   2.780   2.835        0.055      (0.851)  

East  Coast   2.671   2.691   2.742        

0.051    

(0.898)  

Midwest   2.694   2.677   2.794        

 0.117    (0.920)  

Gulf  Coast   2.483   2.536   2.593        0.057    (0.835)  

West  Coast   3.444   3.377   3.334      

(0.043)    (0.665)  

 Source:  US  Energy  Information  Administration    

(25)  

(20)  

(15)  

(10)  

(5)  

0    

5    

10    

15    

10/31  

11/14  

11/28  

12/12  

12/26  

01/09  

01/24  

02/07  

02/21  

03/06  

03/21  

04/01  

04/18  

05/02  

05/15  

05/30  

06/13  

Page 5: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  5

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

 

US  RETAIL  EARNINGS  

Company  

  Revenues    ($  Mil.)  

Change  YoY   Gross  Margin  (%)   Change  

Net  Income    ($  Mil.)  

Change  YoY   Store  Fleet  EOP  

Period   2015   2014   (%)   2015   2014   (BP)   2015   2014   (%)   2014   2013  

Kroger   1Q  to  May  23   33,051     32,961     0.3     22.1     21.0     109   619.0     501.0     23.6     2,626     2,642    

Rite  Aid   1Q  to  May  30   6,648     6,466     2.8     28.0     27.9     8   18.8     41.4     (54.6)   4,566     4,581      

 

Source:  Company  reports  *  Hudson's  Bay  reported  in  CAD    

US  RETAIL  HEADLINES  Fast-­‐Fashion  Retailer  Forever  21  Expands  in  Australia  (June  14)  Women’s  Wear  Daily  • Forever  21  opened  a  three-­‐story,  30,100-­‐square-­‐foot  store  at  Sydney’s  popular  Pitt  Street  Mall,  

where   average   retail   rent   is   $1,016   a   square   foot;   it   ranks   as   the   fifth-­‐most-­‐expensive   retail  neighborhood.  

• The  Pitt  Street  Mall  unit  is  Forever  21’s  third,  and  largest,  store  in  Australia.  The  Sydney  flagship  is   one   of   150   stores   the   retailer   plans   to   open   around   the  world.   The   company   aims   to   reach  1,200  stores  and  $8  billion  in  annual  revenue  by  2017.  

Gap  to  Close  175  North  American  Stores  and  Cut  250  Jobs  (June  15)  Women’s  Wear  Daily  • Gap   announced   plans   to   close   175   specialty   stores   in  North  America   over   the   next   few   years,  

including   140   in   this   fiscal   year.   Gap   Outlet   and   Gap   Factory   stores   will   not   be   affected.   The  intention  is  to  cut  total  store  count  to  800,  comprising  500  specialty  stores  and  300  outlets.  

• The   company   anticipates   the   store   closure   plan   will   result   in   $300   million   in   sales   and   $140  million–$160  million  in  onetime  closing  costs.  

CVS  to  Purchase  Target’s  Pharmacy  Business  (June  15)  The  Wall  Street  Journal  • Under   the  $1.9  billion  purchase  deal,  CVS  will   rebrand  1,660  drugstores  and  80  medical   clinics  

inside  Target.  

• This  deal  will  allow  Target  to  focus  on   its  core  businesses,   including  baby,  kids’  and  style,  while  expanding   healthcare   services   offerings   inside   Target   stores.   The   partnership   was   praised   by  investors  of  both  companies:  Target’s  shares  were  up  1.3%  and  CVS’s  were  up  0.4%  on  the  day  of  the  announcement,  when  overall  trading  was  down.  

Amazon  Develops  Mobile  App  to  Hire  Ordinary  People  for  Delivery  (June  16)  The  Wall  Street  Journal  • Amazon  is  developing  a  mobile  app  that  will  pay  regular  people  rather  than  professional  carriers  

to   drop  off   packages   on   the  way   to   their   destinations.  Meanwhile,   Amazon  would   also   recruit  brick-­‐mortar-­‐stores  to  store  packages  instead  of  renting  warehouse  space.  

• This  initiative  could  help  bring  down  Amazon’s  growing  shipping  costs.  On  average,  UPS  charges  $8  per  package  and  Amazon  ships  3.5  million  packages  a  day.  Last  year,  shipping  costs  amounted  to  $8.7  billion,  or  9.8%,  of  its  total  sales.  

   

Page 6: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  6

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

ASIA  HEADLINES  Asia-­‐Pacific  Consumers  Are  Confident  Mobile  Shoppers:  MasterCard  (June  17)  ZDNet  • A  MasterCard  Mobile   Shopping   Survey   of   the   Asia-­‐Pacific   region   showed   that   close   to   half   of  

respondents  made  a  purchase  using  their  smartphone  in  the  three  months  preceding  the  survey,  which  was  conducted  between  October  and  December  2014.  

• 70.1%   of   respondents   from   China   said   they   had   made   such   a   purchase,   while   62.9%   of  respondents   from   India,   62.6%   of   respondents   from   Taiwan   and   19.6%   of   respondents   from  Australia  said  they  had  done  so.  

Alibaba,  Foxconn  in  Talks  to  Jointly  Invest  US$500  Million  in  Snapdeal  (June  17)  e27.co  • Chinese  e-­‐commerce  giant  Alibaba  and  Taiwanese  electronics  contract  manufacturing  company  

Foxconn  are   reportedly   in   talks   to   jointly   invest   about  US$500  million   in   Snapdeal,   a   deal   that  could  value  the  Indian  e-­‐commerce  company  at  about  US$5  billion.  

• Last   year,   Snapdeal   was   valued   at   roughly   US$2   billion   when   it   raised   US$627   million   from  Japan’s  SoftBank.  eBay  and  BlackRock  are   its  other  major   investors.  Alibaba  gave  up  an  earlier  deal  over  differences  in  Snapdeal’s  valuation.  

600  Million  Samsung  Galaxy  Phones  Reportedly  at  Security  Risk  Due  to  Keyboard  Flaw  (June  16)  ZDNet  • Mobile  security  company  NowSecure  reported  that  the  SwiftKey  keyboard  on  millions  of  phones  

check   for   updates   over   an   unencrypted,   plain-­‐text   connection.   This   allows   access   to   device  sensors,  apps  and  more.  

• This  security   issue  allows  access  to  a  phone’s  camera  and  microphone,   installation  of  malicious  apps  without   the   user   knowing,   eavesdropping   on   incoming/outgoing  messages   or   voice   calls,  and  attempts  to  access  sensitive  personal  data  such  as  pictures  and  text  messages.  

Sony  Is  “Here  to  Play”  with  Gamer-­‐Focused  Smartphone  (June  16)  CNET  • Sony  will  once  again  tout   the  ability   to  stream  and  remotely  play  PlayStation  4  games  as  a  key  

selling  point  as  it  looks  to  break  into  the  US  smartphone  market  through  it  newest  smartphone,  the  Xperia  Z4v.  

• Sony’s   mobile   prospects   were   so   dim   that   some   speculated   it   would   shed   the   business  altogether.  In  the  fiscal  year  ended  March  31,  the  unit  lost  $184  billion  despite  an  11%  increase  in  revenue.  

KK  Fund’s  Koichi  Saito  Reveals  Investments  and  Plans  (June  16)  e27.co  • Singapore-­‐based  new  venture  capital  firm  KK  Fund  has  just  invested  US$250,000  in  Malaysia’s  Be  

Malas,  a  “chatty  commerce”  startup,  and  US$200,000  in  Malaysian  service  marketplace  Koadim.  

• Koichi  Saito,  the  head  of  KK  Fund  and  a  former  director  of  IMJ  Investment  Partners,  said  that  “the  timing   of   the   exit   is   much   more   important   than   finding   good   startups.   Maybe   that’s   slightly  different  than  other  investors.”  

In  Wake  of  Hacking  Scandals,  Japan’s  NTT  Partners  with  Box  for  Enterprise  Security  (June  16)  TechinAsia  • The  CEOs  of  NTT  Communications  and  Silicon  Valley–based  Box  jointly  unveiled  Box  over  VPN,  a  

new   service   that   will   combine   NTT’s   secure   enterprise   network   and   Box’s   cloud-­‐based  collaboration  and  content  management  platform.  

• Box   over   VPN   promises   to   increase   digital   security   for   enterprise   customers   by   sending   data  through  its  proprietary  Arcstar  Universal  One  private  network,  thus  avoiding  the  public  Internet.  

Page 7: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  7

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

 Video  Streaming  Site  in  China  Says  It’s  Finally  Getting  People  to  Pay  Up,  Hits  5  Million  Subscribers  (June  16)  TechinAsia  • iQiyi,  owned  by  search  engine  giant  Baidu,  revealed  that  it  just  topped  5  million  paid  subscribers.  

iQiyi  Senior  VP  Yang  Xianghua  says  iQiyi  is  now  the  industry  leader  in  China  in  terms  of  number  of  premium  subscribers.  

• iQiyi’s  numbers  came  days  after  Alibaba  announced  an  upcoming  HBO/Netflix-­‐style  service  called  Tmall   Box  Office.   The   service  would  be   accessible  only   to  paying  users,   in   contrast   to   the   free  access  of  all  of  China’s  other  video  sites.  

Here’s  How  SoftBank  Is  Hunting  for  the  Next  Unicorn  (June  15)  e27.co  • According   to   research   firm   CB   Insights,   SoftBank   has  made  more   first-­‐time   investments   in   US  

companies   than   in   Indian   or   Chinese   tech   firms   since   2010,   but   its   deals   have   been   far  more  sizable  in  India  and  China,  averaging  US$125  million  per  deal  in  India  and  US$323  million  per  deal  in  China.  

• The  massive   investments   in  Coupang   (US$1  billion),   Snapdeal   (US$627  million)   and   Indonesia’s  online   marketplace,   Tokopedia   (US$100   million),   are   believed   to   be   SoftBank’s   attempt   to  replicate  the  success  of  its  investment  in  Chinese  giant  Alibaba.  

 EUROPEAN  RETAIL  EARNINGS

Company    

Revenues  ($  Mil.)   Change  

Change  in  Reporting  Currency   Gross  Margin  (%)   Change   Net  Income  ($  Mil.)  

Change  YoY   Store  Fleet  EOP  

Period   2015   2014   (%)   (%)   2015   2014   (BP)   2015   2014   (%)   2015   2014  

Net-­‐A-­‐Porter   FYE  3/31/15   1,055   847   24.6   22.8   45.3   44.1   121   2.9   (20.6)   N/A   N/A   N/A  

Prada   1Q  to  4/30/15   910   1,070   (15.0)   6.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   64.5   144.9   (55.5)   603   551  

Wilko  Retail   FYE  1/31/15   2,364   2,294   3.1   (1.2)   40.0   41.3   (129)   3.4   25.3   (86.6)   375   N/A  Source:  Company  reports  

EUROPEAN  RETAIL  HEADLINES  H&M  Group  Monthly  Sales  up  10%  (June  17)  Company  Press  Release  • Swedish  fashion  retailer  H&M’s  sales  rose  10%  year  over  year,  in  local  currencies,  in  May  2015.  In  

the  second  quarter  (March–May),  sales  also  rose  10%  year  over  year,  in  local  currencies.  

• Store  count  increased  from  3,285  in  May  2014  to  3,639  in  May  2015.  

Net-­‐A-­‐Porter  Returns  to  Profit  (June  15)  FT.com  • Online  luxury  fashion  retailer  Net-­‐A-­‐Porter  has  posted  its  first  pretax  profit   in  five  years,  at  £11  

million  (US$17  million)  for  the  year  through  March,  up  from  a  pretax  loss  of  £10  million  (US$16  million)  in  the  previous  year.  Sales  grew  by  more  than  one-­‐fifth,  to  £654  million  (US$1,019).  

• Active  customer  numbers  increased  by  more  than  one-­‐quarter,  to  887,000  in  the  year,  and  order  numbers  rose  to  2.6  million.  

   

Page 8: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  8

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

Prada  Group  Sees  Quarterly  Profits  Slump  (June  12)  Company  Press  Release  • Prada  Group  this  week  reported  that  sales  grew  by  6.5%,  to  €828  million  (US$909  million)  in  the  

first   quarter   (February–April).   At   current   exchange   rates,   sales  were   up   11%   in   Europe,   6%   in  Japan,  16%  in  the  Americas  and  13%  in  the  Middle  East.  In  the  Asia-­‐Pacific  region,  sales  volumes  fell  “significantly,”  although  a  positive  exchange  rate  effect  helped  offset  the  decline.  

• Net  profit   for  the  quarter  fell  44%  year  over  year,  to  €59  million  (US$64  million).  The  company  said   its   results   had   been   impacted   by   the   “continuing   difficult  market   conditions”   in   the   Asia-­‐Pacific  region,  especially  in  Hong  Kong  and  Macau.  

UK  Inflation  Returns  to  Positive  Territory  (June  16)  Office  for  National  Statistics  • In  the  UK,  consumer  price  inflation  stood  at  0.1%  in  May,  ending  a  short-­‐lived  period  of  deflation.  

• Lower  deflation  in  food  (-­‐1.8%)  and  in  automotive  fuels  (-­‐11.0%)  contributed,  while  inflation  for  clothing  turned  very  slightly  positive  (0.3%)  for  the  month.  

General  Merchandiser  Wilko  Reports  Decline  in  Profits  (June  16)  The  Times  • British   variety   store   chain  Wilko   posted   an   80%   slump   in   pretax   profits,   to   £5.5  million   (US$9  

million)  for  the  year  to  January.  

• Sales  slipped  by  1.2%  in  the  year;  the  company  blamed  price  cuts  by  supermarkets  and  discount  chains  for  its  weak  performance.  

Tesco  Needs  £5  Billion  to  Bolster  Balance  Sheet,  Says  Moody’s  (June  15)  The  Times  • UK   grocery   giant   Tesco   needs   to   raise   more   than   £5   billion   (US$8   billion)   to   strengthen   its  

balance  sheet,  rating  agency  Moody’s  said  this  week.  Based  on  current  profitability,  Tesco  needs  to  raise  at  least  this  amount  to  recover  its  investment-­‐grade  rating.  

• Tesco  is  reported  to  be  exploring  a  sale  of  its  South  Korean  business,  as  part  of  a  raft  of  changes  designed  to  strengthen  its  balance  sheet.  

Saks  Fifth  Avenue  Owner  Announces  Deal  with  Germany’s  Biggest  Department  Store  (June  17)  RetailBulletin.com  • Hudson’s   Bay   announced   it   plans   to   buy   Galeria   Holding,   the   parent   company   of   Germany’s  

biggest  department  store  chain,  Kaufhof,  in  a  €2.83  billion  deal.  

• Kaufhof  currently  has  103  Galeria  Kaufhof  stores  and  16  Sportarena  stores.  It  also  has  16  Galeria  INNO  stores  across  Belgium,  where  it  is  the  country’s  only  department  store.  

Karen  Millen  Campaign  Prevents  £2.6  Million  of  Counterfeit  Sales  (June  17)  RetailBulletin.com  • British  fashion  retailer  Karen  Millen  has  managed  to  prevent  the  sale  of  over  £2.6  million  worth  

of   fake   garments   traded   illegally   under   the   brand’s   name.   The   retailer   has   been  working  with  companies   such   as   eBay,   Amazon,   Taobao   and   Alibaba   on   this   initiative   since   2012   and   has  reportedly   removed  over  38,000   infringing  URLs   from  search  engine  results  and  around  23,000  counterfeit  product  listings  from  online  marketplaces.  

• Karen  Millen  has  also  enlisted  the  support  of  its  customers  through  a  dedicated  campaign  page  on   its  website  called  Join  Our  Fight.  Any  customer  who  sees  a  suspicious  site  or  seller  of  Karen  Millen  goods  is  encouraged  to  notify  the  company  via  this  platform.  

Page 9: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  9

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

LATAM  HEADLINES  Guatemala’s  Apparel  Industry  Faces  Sourcing  Challenges  (June  16)  WWD.com  • Guatemala’s   apparel   industry   has   improved   deliveries   and  moved   into   producing  more   value-­‐

added  products  in  order  to  prevent  share  loss  to  Vietnam  and  other  Asian  countries.  

• Guatemalan  mills  are  currently  oversold,  with  sourcing  contracts  expected  to  rise  20%  this  year,  on  the  heels  of  a  12%  increase  in  2014.  

• Despite   an   ongoing   corruption   scandal,   the   Guatemalan   government   is   sharply   cutting   energy  prices  and  extending  tax  breaks  in  order  to  woo  foreign  investment.  

MosquitNo  Expanding  Rapidly  in  Latin  American  Markets  (June  16)  The  Moodie  Report  • MosquitNo  is  a  natural  mosquito  repellent  brand  that  is  expanding  within  the  travel  markets  of  

Latin  America.  

• The   brand   promises   no   environmental   harm   and   already   has   a   presence   in   Bolivia,   Canada,  Panama,  Paraguay,  Puerto  Rico  and  Saint  Barthélemy.  

• The  family  brand  is  targeting  travel  retail,  border  shops  and  cruise  ships  in  Latin  America  and  the  Caribbean  as  sales  outlets.  

Mexican  Denim  Exports  Expected  to  Grow  (June  15)  WWD.com  • Strengthening  demand   from  the  US   is  expected   to  drive  a  15%   increase   in  Mexico’s   jeanswear  

exports,  to  $2.2  billion  this  year,  according  to  trade  consultant  Cedetex.  

• The   increase   would   be   in   addition   to   a   2%   increase   (to   124.8   million   pairs)   last   year,   amid  heightened  competition  from  Vietnam  and  Bangladesh.  

• Mexico   sells   90%   of   its   output   to   the   US   and   is   its   top   supplier   in   the   men’s   and   children’s  jeanswear  categories.  However,  the  country  has  fallen  to  fifth  place  worldwide   in  the  women’s  category.  

US  House  Passes  Trade  Promotion  Authority,  to  Benefit  Haiti  and  Other  Countries  (June  11)  WWD.com  • On  June  11,  the  US  House  of  Representatives  passed  a  package  that  would  provide  trade  benefits  

to  Haiti,  sub-­‐Saharan  African  nations  and  other  developing  countries.  

• Since  the  House  bill  is  different  from  the  one  that  passed  the  Senate  in  a  97-­‐to-­‐1  vote  last  month,  the  Senate  still  needs  to  approve  the  final  legislation.  

• The   bill   aims   to   create   new   tariff   categories   for   “recreational   performance   outerwear”   and  reduce  duties  on  certain  water-­‐resistant  performance  footwear.  

   

Page 10: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  10

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

 

   

EARNINGS  CALENDAR      

      Sales  (in  Millions  USD)   EPS    (in  USD)    

Company  

Earnings  Release  Period   Date  

Consensus  TY   LY  Actual  

Consensus        TY   LY  Actual   Currency  

Walgreens  Boots  Alliance   Q3  15   Jun.  24   29,518   19,401   0.77   0.75   USD  

Hennes  &  Mauritz  AB   Q2  15   Jun.  25   44,565   34,827   3.89   3.51   SEK  

NIKE  Inc   Q4  15   Jun.  26   7,667   7,425   0.83   0.78   USD  

Tesco   Q1  15   Jun.  26   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   GBP  

Ocado  Group  PLC   FY  15   Jun.30   1,107   949   0.022   0.013   GBP  

Alimentation  Couche-­‐Tard     Q4  15   Jul.    7   7499   8.95   0.27   0.22   USD  

Marks  &  Spencer   Q1  15   Jul.  7   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   GBP  

Fast  Retailing     FY  15   Jul.  9   1,665,000   1,380,000   1286   887   JPY  

Family  Dollar   Q3  15   Jul.  10   2,727   2,660   0.82   0.85   USD  

eBay     Q2  15   Jul.16   4,487   4,370   0.73   0.69   USD  

VF  Corp   Q2  15     Jul.  17   2,462   2,400   0.36   0.36   USD  

Google  Inc   Q2  15   Jul.  17   14,253   12,670   6.74   NA   USD  

Tractor  Supply   Q2  15   Jul.  17   1,762   950   1.11   0.95   USD  

Apple     Q2  15   Jul.  22   48,545   37,430   1.77   1.28   USD  

LVMH     FY  15   Jul.  23   35,458   40,640   3.65   6.40   EUR  

Kering   HY  15   Jul.  23   5,290   4,747   5.07   4.41   EUR  

Macerich     Q2  15   Jul.  23   327   254   0.14   0.11   USD  

Westfield  Financial     Q2  15   Jul.  23   8.9   8.7   0.08   0.07   USD  

Facebook     Q2  15   Jul.  23   3,969   2,910   0.47   0.31   USD  

Brunkswick     Q2  15   Jul.  24   1155   1139   1.03   0.95   USD  

Page 11: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  11

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

 

EVENT  CALENDAR        

Event   Location   Date(s)  FBIC  Presentation  

Maker  Faire     Shenzhen,  China   June  19–21    ICSC  New  Influences  on  Marketing  &  Selling  Property   New  York,  NY     June  19    

Silicon  Dragon   New  York,  NY     June  22    Bitspiration   Festival—Technology,   Startups   and  Music   Warsaw,  Poland   June  22–23    

eTail  Europe   London,  UK   June  22–24    

Cyber  Week-­‐Israel  Economic  Mission   Tel  Aviv,  Israel   June  22–25    Category  Management  and  Shopper  Marketing  Summit   London,  UK   June  23–24    

CE  Week  New  York   New  York,  NY     June  22–26    

TechWeek  Chicago   Chicago,  IL     June  22–28    

TechCrunch  Meetup  &  Pitch  Off   Austin,  Texas   June  23    

Altria  Group  Analyst  Day   New  York,  NY   June  23    

Performance  Marketing  Insights   Berlin,  Germany   June  23–24    

CE  Week  New  York  Conferences   New  York,  NY     June  23–25    

NRF  Protect  conference   Long  Beach,  CA   June  23–25    

Future  Stores—in-­‐Store  Experience  Innov   Seattle,  WA   June  23–25    

NRF  Protect  Expo   Long  Beach,  CA   June  24–25    

Showstoppers  Press  Breakfast  @  CE  Week   New  York,  NY     June  24    

ICSC  Canadian  Retail  Research  Seminar   Toronto,  ON     June  24    

ICSC  China  Shopping  Centers  Marketing  Conference   Beijing,  China   June  24–26    

CE  Week  New  York  Exhibits     New  York,  NY     June  24–25    

British  Retail  Consortium,  Retail  Symposium   London,  UK   June  25    

Internet  of  Things  (IoT)  Cloud  World  Forum  2015   London,  UK   June  25–26    

Sustainability  Re.Hack   London,  UK   June  25–26    

App  Promotion  Summit   London,  UK   July  9    

Wearable  Tech  Conference   San  Francisco,  CA   July  9-­‐10    

ICSC  NARTF  Summer  Meeting     New  York,  NY     July  10–11    

Page 12: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  12

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

     

Wearable  Tech  Conference   New  York,  NY     July  13–15    

Brainstorm  Tech   Aspen,  CO   July  13–15    

UJA  Cybersecurity   New  York,  NY     July  15    

Mobile  World  Congress  Shanghai   Shanghai,  China   July  15–17    

ICSC  New  England  Idea  Exchange   Boston,  MA   July  15–17    

GEMA  Omnichannel  Retail  Executive  Forum     New  York,  NY     July  16    

ESRI  Business  Summit   San  Diego,  CA   July  18–21    

Project  SOLE-­‐AAFA   New  York,  NY     July  19–21    

4th  Annual  Traceability  Conference—AAFA   Nashville,  TN   July  21    

Online  Retailer  Conference  &  EComm  Expo   Sydney,  Australia   July  21–23    

NRF  Tech   Half  Moon  Bay,  CA   July  26–28    NRF  International  Trade/Supply  Chain  Summer  meeting   Washington,  DC   July  28    

NRF  Retail  Advocates  Summit   Washington,  DC   July  28–29    

ColombiaModa  Fashion  &  Sourcing     Medellin,  Colombia   July  28–30    

Page 13: JUNE 19, 2015 Weekly Insights...4.0 5.0 Jan! 14 Feb 14 Mar! 14 Apr 14 May! 14 Jun! 14 Jul14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan! 15 Feb 15 Mar! 15 Apr 15 % FBIC!HAPPENINGS!&!WEINSWIG’S!WATCH!ING!!

       

  13

JUNE 19, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

   Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Executive  Director—Head  of  Global  Retail  &  Technology  Fung  Business  Intelligence  Centre  New  York:  917.655.6790  Hong  Kong:  +852  6119  1779  [email protected]    Cam  Bolden  [email protected]    Sunny  Chan,  CFA  [email protected]    Marie  Driscoll,  CFA  [email protected]    John  Harmon,  CFA  [email protected]    Aragorn  Ho  [email protected]    John  Mercer  [email protected]    Charlie  Poon  [email protected]    Kiril  Popov  [email protected]    Stephanie  Reilly  [email protected]    Lan  Rosengard  [email protected]    Jing  Wang    [email protected]