1June 17, 2004

85% of our high school students indicate

their intention to go on to college.

- OUS Post High School Plan Survey, 2003

2June 17, 2004

Early Indicators

Student Performance on Oregon High School Standards Compared with

Performance in the First Year of College

Presented to the State Board of EducationJune 17, 2004

A Collaborative Study by the: Oregon University SystemOregon Department of EducationOregon Department of Community Colleges and Workforce Development

3June 17, 2004

Question #1 and Findings

How does the performance of students assessed on the high school benchmark compare with their subsequent performance in college? Performance is closely aligned with first - year college

performance Students who “meet” or “exceed” are more likely to earn a

higher first year college GPA in related courses Students who “meet” or “exceed” are more likely to earn

more credits in related first year college courses Not all students who are currently enrolled in postsecondary

have met college entry proficiency

4June 17, 2004

Reading and Language Assessment

1.50

1.75

2.002.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.253.50

3.75

4.00

Not Meet Meet Exceed

Course Subjects

First Year College GPA

First YearCollege GPA

Science

Social Science

All Mathematics

OUS Institutions

5June 17, 2004

Reading and Language Assessment

1.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.253.503.754.00

Not Meet Meet Exceed

Course Subjects

First Year GPA

First Year College GPA

Professional Technical

Science

Social Science

All Mathematics

Community Colleges

6June 17, 2004

Performance on reading standard relates to

first year college performance

6,028 Oregon public HS graduates entered in fall 2001 with state assessment data in reading:

18% met high school GPA and subject-area course admission requirements BUT did not meet the state 10th grade benchmark standard in reading (foundation standard for PASS).

This 18% earned average first-year college GPAs of 2.09 in undergraduate science and 2.17 in social science classes

82% met or exceeded the benchmark standard and earned average first-year college GPAs of 2.55 in science and 3.09 in social science.

7June 17, 2004

Performance on math standard relates to

first year college performance

6,028 Oregon public HS graduates entered in fall 2001 with state assessment data in math:

34% met high school GPA and subject-area course admission requirements BUT did not meet the state 10th grade benchmark standard in math (foundation standard for PASS).

This 34% earned average first-year college GPAs of 2.18 in undergraduate math and 2.12 in science classes

66% met or exceeded the benchmark standard and earned average first-year college GPAs of 2.6 in undergraduate math and 2.64 science classes.

8June 17, 2004

What does first year college GPA indicate about students’ likely success in college?

OUS cohort studies indicate that, with a freshman year GPA of less than 2.5 in OUS, a student has a 50% probability of earning a degree in 6 years.

OUS Institutional Research Study, Looking Back along the Long and Winding Road: Retention, Attrition, and Graduation of OUS Freshmen, Fall 1987 through Fall 1995 Cohorts

9June 17, 2004

Question #2 and Findings

What is the relationship of performance on the high school benchmark assessment, high school GPA, and the SAT I to first-year college performance? Is this consistent with The First Year Study (2001-02)? Performance on the high school benchmark assessments

and SAT I were comparably correlated with first-year college GPA.

Data from the Early Indicators Study are consistent with that of The First Year Study.

10June 17, 2004

ps_z wr_z rl_z sc_z ma_z pswrrlscma_z hsgpa sat satv satm all_gpa0.63 0.59 0.77 0.79 0.80 1.00 0.43 0.80 0.71 0.72 0.385301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 53010.27 0.31 0.33 0.28 0.37 0.43 1.00 0.35 0.28 0.35 0.54

5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 53010.40 0.38 0.67 0.70 0.71 0.80 0.35 1.00 0.90 0.90 0.35

5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 53010.29 0.40 0.71 0.63 0.52 0.71 0.28 0.90 1.00 0.61 0.32

5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 53010.42 0.27 0.50 0.63 0.76 0.72 0.35 0.90 0.61 1.00 0.31

5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 53010.22 0.26 0.31 0.25 0.31 0.38 0.54 0.35 0.32 0.31 1.00

5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301 5301all_gpa

pswrrlscma_z

hsgpa

satv

sat

satm

Pearson Correlation Coefficients (2002 - 03)

Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0Number of Observations

*All correlations are statistically significant at the .01 level.

11June 17, 2004

*All correlations are statistically significant at the .01 level.

ps_z wr_z rl_z ma_zpswrrlma

_z hsgpa sat satv satm overall_gpa0.64 0.66 0.78 0.77 1.00 0.46 0.75 0.69 0.66 0.37

5169 5169 5169 5169 5169 5061 3488 3488 3488 51690.23 0.32 0.36 0.41 0.46 1.00 0.37 0.30 0.37 0.52

5061 5061 5061 5061 5061 5061 3429 3429 3429 50610.33 0.43 0.67 0.72 0.75 0.37 1.00 0.91 0.89 0.38

3488 3488 3488 3488 3488 3429 3488 3488 3488 34880.26 0.45 0.71 0.55 0.69 0.30 0.91 1.00 0.63 0.35

3488 3488 3488 3488 3488 3429 3488 3488 3488 34880.33 0.33 0.50 0.75 0.66 0.37 0.89 0.63 1.00 0.34

3488 3488 3488 3488 3488 3429 3488 3488 3488 34880.18 0.25 0.32 0.32 0.37 0.52 0.38 0.35 0.34 1.00

5169 5169 5169 5169 5169 5061 3488 3488 3488 5169

pswrrlma_z

overall_gpa

hsgpa

sat

satv

satm

Source: PASS/OUS, The First Year Study, 2003

Pearson Correlation Coefficients (2001 - 02)

Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0Number of Observations

12June 17, 2004

Early Indicator CalculatorTEST SCORE PROBABILITY OF FRESHMAN GPA

Reading/Language 240 9.048 10 12 13 2.0 or Higher 2.5 or Higher 3.0 or Higher 3.5 or Higher

Writing 40 2.72 2 3 30.83 0.61 0.31 0.01

Math 240 6.36 8 8 11

Problem Solving 32 0.3712 0 1 118.499 21 24 29

Assessments contribute different “weights” to probability of First

Year GPA

13June 17, 2004

Align standards: Provide a continuous path for student

learning

Grade 3 Sort, classify, and describe shapes.

Grade 5 Build, draw, measure, and compare shapes.

Grade 8Identify, classify, draw, and describe geometric figures.

Grade 10Interpret, draw, and describe two- and three-dimensional objects.

College admission (PASS standard)Represent and analyze a wide variety of geometric figures and their properties using drawings, models, and the Cartesian coordinate system.

Example: Geometry

Source:Oregon Department of Education, Standards

14June 17, 2004

High School Benchmarks Provide the Foundation for College Entry Proficiency (PASS)

State Assessments Required PASS Standards

Math Problem Solving Solve Mathematical Problems

Math Knowledge and Skills Perform Algebraic Operations

Use Geometric Concepts and Models or

Use Probability and Statistics to Collect and Study Data

Use Functions to Understand Mathematical Relationships

Reading All PASS English standards use the 10th grade benchmark in reading as an assumed prerequisite.

Writing Write for Varied Purposes

Interpret Literary Works

Conduct Inquiry and Research

Science Knowledge and Skills

Know Fundamental Concepts of Sciences

Design and Conduct Scientific Investigations

June 17, 2004 15

PASS Standards Met via High School Standards

State Assessments PASS Standards CC OUS

Math Problem Solving Solve Mathematical Problems 62% 80%

Math Knowledge and Skills Perform Algebraic Operations 53% 82%

Reading All PASS English standards use the 10th grade benchmark in reading as an assumed prerequisite.

64% 86%

Writing Write for Varied Purposes 54% 73%

Science Knowledge and Skills

Know Fundamental Concepts of Sciences

66% 85%

16June 17, 2004

When standards are aligned, student learning can be improved in time to make a difference

Stu

dent

Lea

rnin

g

Grade-level BenchmarksGrade 3

5 8 Transition toCollege

10

Time to prepare:

High School Benchmark - 2 years

SAT/ACT scores -1/2 - 1 year

Final HS GPA

17June 17, 2004

How might postsecondary institutions support K-12 students’ college preparation?

1. High school graduation

2. Subject-area requirement

3. Grade point average

4. SAT I or ACT

Expand on Current Admission Requirements:

5. Evidence of Proficiency

to include . . .

18June 17, 2004

85% of our high school students indicate

their intention to go on to college.

- OUS Post high School Plan Survey, 2003

What will we do to get them there?