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National Survey ResultsNational Public Radio
July 28, 2009
July 22 – 26, 2009
850 Likely voters
National Public Radio, July 2009
This survey was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies for National Public Radio and is the 28th survey in the NPR series.
These findings are based on a national telephone survey of 850 likely voters conducted July 22 – 26, 2009. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.
The survey
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 2 |
National Public Radio, July 2009
Direction of the Country
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 3 |
National Public Radio, July 2009
25 25 23 2316
3138
65 66 68 6863
54
3742
3637
6354
38
49 50
3737
34
424141424037
30
565154
48
25
34
50
39 41
5055
5651 51505054 54
64
80
Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09
Right direction Wrong track
2004 2004 ElectionElection KatrinaKatrina
2006 2006 ElectionElection
Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Net Difference
-13 -22-8-9+10 -18+9-13-10+20+38-12-17 -9-10-11 -19 -18 -34 -40 -45-41 -45 -74
2008 2008 ElectionElection
-32
*Note: Shows nationwide surveys conducted in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies for National Public Radio over the past 8 years.
-16
Direction of the country shows improvement since March
National Public Radio, July 2009
3433
Approve Disapprove
Strongly approve Strongly disapprove
Majority approve of job Obama is doing; intensity divided
42
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
53
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 5 |
National Public Radio, July 2009
42
7
Approve Disapprove
Strongly approve Strongly disapprove
61
33
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 6 |
Low approval rating for CongressAnd do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing?
National Public Radio, July 2009
25
3336
22
35
28
69
6158
73
5965
Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09
Total approve Total disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing?
2008 Election2008 Election
Congressional disapproval high
*Note: Shows nationwide surveys conducted in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies for National Public Radio over the past 8 years.
National Public Radio, July 2009
3838
Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate
Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate
Generic congressional vote a statistical tieI know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in the district where you live?
4342
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 8 |
Rep. +1
National Public Radio, July 2009
4
6
12
39
4
3
6
8
2
5
1
3
0 15 30 45 60
First Choice Second Choice
Which one of the following issues do you think the President and Congress should be paying most attention to? And which of the following is next most important to you in deciding how to vote?
Economy tops concerns, health care next
Taxes and spending
The economy and jobs
Energy and gas prices
Moral values
Health care
The war in Iraq
The federal deficit
5928
1814
13
129
5
8
Education
Terrorism and national security
Social Security and Medicare
The war in Afghanistan
11
7
Climate change 3
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 9 | *Note: Issues ranked by first choice.
National Public Radio, July 2009 Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 10 |
8
4
2
2
2
2
2
0 20 40 60 80
Very Good Job (10) Good Job (6-9)
Neither party doing a good job, but Democrats doing betterNow, on a scale of 0 to 10, tell me how good a job you think the Democratic Party/Republican Party is doing addressing the country's priorities so far this year with 10 meaning a very good job and 0 meaning a very bad job. You can choose any number between 0 and 10.
Democrats 70 xx
Independents 28
Republicans 10
All Voters 24
Democrats 13
Independents 18
Republicans 42
All Voters 38 xx
Mean
2.5
4.4
6.6
3.7
5.2
3.9
3.1
3.7
The Democratic Party
The Republican Party
National Public Radio, July 2009
The Economy
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 11 |
National Public Radio, July 2009
49
Excellent/Good Not so Good/Poor
Excellent Poor
State of the economy not good
91
Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
9
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 12 |
National Public Radio, July 2009
24
3736
Starting to improve At bottom, but not gettingbetter
Will still get worse
Starting to improve At bottom, but not getting better Will still get worse
Voters split on if economy is starting to improve or will fall furtherNow, thinking about the nation’s economy, do you believe the economy has already bottomed out and is starting to improve, is at the bottom but is not yet getting any better or has not yet bottomed out and will still get worse?
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 13 |
National Public Radio, July 2009
67
50
10
37
24
4
Looking at the Past Looking to the Future
Better Worse About the same
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 14 |
Two-thirds believe economy will be better a year from nowLooking ahead, do you think that a year from now the economy will be better than it is now or worse than it is now?
Would you say that the economy right now is better than it was six months ago or worse than it was six months ago?
National Public Radio, July 2009
83
2420
39
6467
52
1471
44
Total Democrats Independents Republicans
Better Worse About the same
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 15 |
Across political spectrum, most believe economy will improveLooking ahead, do you think that a year from now the economy will be better than it is now or worse than it is now?
National Public Radio, July 2009
5850
54
72
1014 13
2937
2027
4
Total Democrats Independents Republicans
Better Worse About the same
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 16 |
Economy worse than it was six months ago to most votersWould you say that the economy right now is better than it was six months ago or worse than it was six months ago?
National Public Radio, July 2009
5053
23
13
2228
Looking at the Past Looking to the Future
Better Worse About the same
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 17 |
Family finances in the recent past and near futureWould you say that right now you and your family are better off financially than you were a year ago or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
Looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you and your family will be better off financially or worse off financially than you are right now?
National Public Radio, July 2009
65
28 31
41
13 15 12 13
4750
37
14
Total Democrats Independents Republicans
Better Worse About the same
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 18 |
Most believe their family’s finances will improve in a yearLooking ahead, do you think that a year from now you and your family will be better off financially or worse off financially than you are right now?
National Public Radio, July 2009
26
53 5663
2330
21161922 20
42
Total Democrats Independents Republicans
Better Worse About the same
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 19 |
Family finances compared to one year agoWould you say that right now you and your family are better off financially than you were a year ago or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
National Public Radio, July 2009
67
50 53
28
10
23
13
22
37
50
24
4
National Economy: Past6 months
National Economy:Year from now
Family Finances: Past 6months
Family Finances: Yearfrom now
Better Worse About the same
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 20 |
Economic outlook: nationally, personally
National Public Radio, July 2009
2412
38
14
37
67
49
29
Avert Crisis Record Deficit Avert Crisis Record Deficit Avert Crisis Record Deficit Avert Crisis Record Deficit
First Statement Strongly Second Statement Strongly
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 21 |
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Voters split on impact of Obama’s economic policies
First Statement: President Obama's economic policies helped avert an even worse crisis, and are laying the foundation for our eventual economic recovery.
Second Statement: President Obama's economic policies have run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession or slow the record pace of job losses.
Democrats Independents RepublicansTotal
21
4845
69
19
76
4941
+3 +48 +8 +57
National Public Radio, July 2009
3338
2934
26 272933
Permanent Temporary Permanent Temporary Permanent Temporary Permanent Temporary
First Statement Strongly Second Statement Strongly
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 22 |
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Lifestyle changes forced by recession perceived to be temporary
First Statement: This economic crisis has made me make lifestyle changes that are most likely permanent.
Second Statement: The lifestyle changes I've made due to the economic crisis are most likely temporary.
Democrats Independents RepublicansTotal
544942
3845 464742
+7 +16 +5 +1
National Public Radio, July 2009
39
2124 2838
81
49
11Bush
ResponsibleObama
ResponsibleBush
ResponsibleObama
ResponsibleBush
ResponsibleObama
ResponsibleBush
ResponsibleObama
Responsible
First Statement Strongly Second Statement Strongly
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 23 |
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Bush continues to hold blame for current state of economy
First Statement: Former President Bush is more responsible for the current state of the economy.
Second Statement: President Obama is more responsible for the current state of the economy.
Democrats Independents RepublicansTotal
12
32
56
86
29
54
3346
+24 +74 +13 +25
National Public Radio, July 2009
Health Care and Energy
National Public Radio, July 2009
39
25
Favor Oppose
Strongly Favor Strongly Oppose
Slight plurality oppose Obama’s health care changes without description
As you may have heard, President Obama and the Democrats in Congress are preparing a plan to change the health care system. From what you have heard about this plan, do you favor or oppose Obama and the Democrats' health care proposal?
4742
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 25 |
Oppose +5
National Public Radio, July 2009
But Democrats win health care message debate
Republicans say we need to first control health care costs and require insurance companies to cover everyone so there is no reason to rush through a plan right now that has so many problems. Under this plan, people will have fewer choices. It will not only limit access to quality care and result in rationing, but it will bust the budget by increasing spending when we are already spending too much on unproven programs like the stimulus. We shouldn't have a government-run health care plan where patients can't go to the doctor they want and government bureaucrats decide who gets which treatments.
Republican Statement: Government takeover will bust budget
Democrats say if we don't reform the health insurance system, premiums will keep doubling every five years, more companies will drop coverage, and insurance companies will keep using the fine print to deny care when people need it. This plan shifts the power from the insurance companies to you and your doctor, gives you the peace of mind of knowing that you won't lose your coverage if you get sick or lose your job, and guarantees that if you like your doctor you can keep them. And it cuts costs by encouraging prevention and allowing people and businesses to comparison shop for the best and most affordable plan.
Democratic Statement: Insurance reform, affordability, peace of mind
37
Democraticstatement
Dem. StatementStrongly
36
RepublicanStatement
Rep. StatementStrongly
Now let me read you two statements about Obama and the Democrats' health care plan. After I read these statements, please tell me which one comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 26 |
5142
National Public Radio, July 2009
Democrats also win debate over energy
Republicans say this cap and trade bill is a 2,000 dollar per year hidden tax on average families. It puts a tax on companies that all Americans will end up paying every time they drive, flip on a light switch, or cool their house. Rather than help create new jobs, this hidden tax will make it even more difficult for American manufacturing businesses to compete, and will send jobs to countries like China and India who refuse to play by the same rules. This new tax hits those who can least afford it -- families and small businesses struggling to survive the recession.
Democrats say for too long we've relied on the same old, dirty energy sources. This bill will get America running on clean energy by rewarding companies that produce alternative energy and requiring companies to reduce their pollution. It will require more of our energy to come from alternative sources like wind and solar and it uses America's technological know-how to recharge our economy with new industries, creating 1.7 million new jobs while reducing our dependence on foreign oil and unstable parts of the world. It will cost families less than 15 dollars a month.
Democratic Statement:Recharge our economy
39
DemocraticStatement
Dem. StatementStrongly
32
RepublicanStatement
Rep. StatementStrongly
As you may have heard, the U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a major energy bill. I am going to read you two statements about that bill. After I read these statements, please tell me which one comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 27 |
Republican Statement: Hidden tax will send jobs overseas
53
40
National Public Radio, July 2009
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