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July 21, 2020

July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

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Page 1: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

July 21, 2020

Page 2: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries
Page 3: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

Sales declined 10% vs Q2 2019

• Price/mix -9%, volume -4%, currency 3%

EBITDA down 25% vs Q2 2019

- Lower selling prices

- Lower publication paper volumes

+ Lower raw material costs

Higher forest growth enables increased annual harvesting

• Gradual increase from 4.3m m3sub / year 2020 to 5.4m m3sub /year 2025

• Increasing cash flow, full effect SEK 300-400m per year from 2025

Coronavirus pandemic

• Steep decline in demand for publication paper

• Significant uncertainty going forward

3

Page 4: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

1,034

1,5491,494

1,560

1,340 1,364

1,055 1,030 1,001

22%

33%30% 31%

26%27%

24%

21% 21%

Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20

EBITDA development (SEKm)

Note: 1) ROCE for the industrial segments; Wood, Pulp and Paper. ROCE calculated as LTM.

EBITDA margin

21%

Industrial ROCE 1)

6%

Net debt/EBITDA

2.1x

EBITDA (SEKm)

1,001 -25%

4

Page 5: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

5

1,746

1,494

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

414

499

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

23.7%

33.4%

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

-14% 21%

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Stable wood supply to industries

Sales down 14%

- Lower volumes

- Lower prices

EBITDA up 21%

+ Higher forest growth increasing earnings from revaluation

of biological assets

Price development – Pulpwood and Sawlogs

90

100

110

120

130

140

Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20

Pulpwood Sawlogs

Page 6: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

6

1,727 1,770

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

188

143

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

10.9%

8.1%

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

Price development – Solid Wood Products

2% High demand, slightly higher prices

Sales up 2%

+ Higher volumes

- Lower prices

EBITDA down 24%

- Lower prices

+ Lower raw material costs

-24%

80

90

100

110

120

Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20

Price index SEK

Page 7: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

7

1,2141,091

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

344

182

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

28.4%

16.7%

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Price development – NBSK Pulp

Sales down 10%- Lower prices

+ Positive currency effects

EBITDA down 47%- Lower prices

+ Positive currency effects

Unplanned production stop in July

- Approx. 50k tonnes volume loss

-10% -47%

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20

Price index SEK

Page 8: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

8

2,375

1,876

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

489

229

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

20.6%

12.2%

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

Price development –

Kraftliner

Price development –

Publication paper (LWC)

-21% -53%

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Publication paper demand significantly impacted by

the corona pandemic, low capacity utilization

Sales down 21%

- Lower publication paper volumes

- Lower kraftliner and publication paper prices

EBITDA down 53%

- Lower publication paper volumes

- Lower kraftliner and publication paper prices

+ Lower raw material costs and positive currency effects

70

90

110

130

Q2'18

Q2'19

Q2'20

Price index SEK

70

90

110

130

Q2'18

Q2'19

Q2'20

Page 9: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

9

New forest survey conducted in 2019

Annual growth 1m m3fo higher than expected

• Gross growth of 10.5 (9.5) m m3fo per year

• Net growth of 4.0 (3.0) m m3fo per year

New harvesting plan confirmed based on the new survey

• Gradual increase from 4.3m m3sub / year 2020 to 5.4m m3sub / year 2025

• Ramp-up expected to be linear over 5 years

• Increasing long-term cash flow, full effect SEK 300-400m per year from 2025

Gross forest growth Sweden

(m m3fo / year)

+1

Harvesting plan

(m m3sub / year)

+1.1

4.3

5.4

Harvestingplan 2020

Harvestingplan 2025

9.5

10.5

Forest survey2012-2013

Forest survey2019

Page 10: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

Limited effects on operations

• Health and safety highest priority

• No disruptions in production or distribution

Shifting demand patterns

• 30-40 percent lower demand for publication paper

• Temporary market related stoppages at Ortviken

Significant uncertainty remains

10

Page 11: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries
Page 12: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

12

Quarter

SEKm Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Change

Net sales 4,687 5,228 -10%

EBITDA 1,001 1,340 -25%

EBITDA margin 21.3% 25.6% -4.3 p.p.

EBIT 600 943 -36%

EBIT margin 12.8% 18.0% -5.2 p.p.

Financial items -31 -45

Profit before tax 569 898 -37%

Tax -110 -194

Profit for the period 459 704 -35%

Earnings per share, SEK 0.65 1.00

Page 13: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

13

Paper

Net sales (SEKm)

PulpForest Wood

292

427

331414 388

607

452499

20%

28%

20%24%

21%

36%

25%

33%

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

Q2'20

1,4

55

1,5

40

1,6

51

1,7

46

1,8

65

1,6

94

1,8

33

1,4

94

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

Q2'20

2,4

13

2,4

21

2,3

66

2,3

75

2,3

80

2,1

08

2,2

42

1,8

76

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

Q2'20

1,7

12

1,5

58

1,6

78

1,7

27

1,5

45

1,3

76

1,4

36

1,7

70

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

Q2'20

743 1

,049

1,1

34

1,2

14

1,1

29

900 1

,188

1,0

91

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

Q2'20

276226

297

188 180125 95

14316%

15%18%

11% 12%9% 7% 8%

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

Q2'20

273

370 351 344268

20

186 18237%

35%31% 28%

24% 2%

16%17%

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

Q2'20

728

536

616

489

577

382 379

22930%

22%26%

21%24%

18% 17%12%

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

Q2'20

EBITDA (SEKm) and EBITDA margin

Page 14: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

14

SEK 5,228m -9%

-4%3% 0%

SEK 4,687m

Net salesQ2 2019

Price/Mix Volume Currency Acquisitions/divestments

Net salesQ2 2020

- 10%

Negative for all segments

Lower Publication Papervolumes

Page 15: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

15

SEK 1,340m -550

-67

+223 -35 +67 +23SEK

1,001m

EBITDAQ2 2019

Price/Mix Volume Raw material Energy Currency Other EBITDAQ2 2020

- 25%

Lower prices for all segments

EBITDA margin

25.6%EBITDA margin

21.3%

Lower costs for wood raw materials

Lower Publication Paper volumes

Page 16: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

16

Quarter

SEKm Q2 2020 Q2 2019

EBITDA 1,001 1,340

Revaluation of biological assets and other non cash flow items -233 -56

Operating cash surplus 768 1,284

Change in working capital -151 -298

Current capital expenditures -338 -348

Other operating cash flow -6 -19

Operating cash flow 273 619

Strategic capital expenditures -655 -156

Jan-jun

2020 2019

2,031 2,900

-573 -302

1,458 2,598

-297 -651

-513 -516

-34 -186

614 1,245

-844 -299

Page 17: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

17

SEKm9,150

9,735

8,1698,597

9,087 9,396

Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Unutilized credit facilities of SEK

7.7bn as of June 30, 2020

Strategic investments of

• FY 2019: -1.3bn

• Jan-Jun 2020: -0.8bn

-0.3bn

Page 18: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

18

SEKm Jun 30, 2020 Dec 31, 2019

Forest assets 70,867 69,682

Working capital 3,969 3,748

Working capital/Net sales 1) 21% 20%

Deferred tax relating to forest assets -14,401 -13,977

Other capital employed 18,346 17,654

Total capital employed 78,781 77,107

Net debt 9,396 8,597

Net debt/EBITDA 2) 2.1x 1.6x

Equity 69,385 68,510

Net debt/Equity 14% 13%

Market price forest assets (SEK/m3fo) 281 3) 276

Note: 1) Average working capital for 13 months as a percentage of 12-month rolling net sales.

2) 12-months EBITDA, up to end of each period.

3) Applied to expected volume at 31 Dec 2020

Page 19: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries
Page 20: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

Sales declined 10% vs Q2 2019

• Price/mix -9%, volume -4%, currency 3%

EBITDA down 25% vs Q2 2019

- Lower selling prices

- Lower publication paper volumes

+ Lower raw material costs

Higher forest growth enables increased annual harvesting

• Gradual increase from 4.3m m3sub / year 2020 to 5.4m m3sub /year 2025

• Increasing cash flow, full effect SEK 300-400m per year from 2025

Coronavirus pandemic

• Steep decline in demand for publication paper

• Significant uncertainty going forward

20

Page 21: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries
Page 22: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries
Page 23: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

22.4

22.8

23.2

23.6

24.0

24.4

24.8

25.2

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS)

Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS)

23

Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply)

Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries (Mt) Hardwood pulp inventories (days of supply)

Source: PIX, PPPC.

Average

Average

20

25

30

35

40

45

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Page 24: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

20

25

30

35

40

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

Unbleached kraftliner price Euwid (LHS)

Kraftliner deliveries Europe (RHS)

24

Kraftliner inventories (days of supply)

Price (EUR/t) vs Kraftliner deliveries (Mt) Eurpean Box demand (index)

Source: Euwid, Numera.

Average

9092949698

100102104106108

Page 25: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

25

Net sales (SEKm)

EBITDA (SEKm) and EBITDA margin 1)

603478 531

670904

789

543

12%9% 10% 11%

14% 12%9%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

1,232 1,213 1,2381,363 1,394

1,7401,946

24% 24% 25%27% 26% 25%

28%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

768970

530 482709

983

656

31%35%

21%19%

25%23%

15%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

5,187 5,108 4,978 5,070 5,455

6,956 6,886

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

5,114 5,315 5,4415,994

6,618 6,325 6,127

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

2,518 2,760 2,492 2,542 2,866

4,377 4,308

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

8,226 8,5487,744

8,434

9,643 9,2298,606

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

PaperPulpForest Wood

1,243 1,295 1,2451,479

2,468

2,064

1,567

15% 15% 16%18%

26%22%

18%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

Note: 2014 and 2015 EBITDA refer to adjusted figures. 2016 and forward refer to unadjusted

figures. For details please see the quarterly report.

Page 26: July 21, 2020 · 7/21/2020  · NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS) Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS) 23 Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply) Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current expectations and

are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could negatively affect our business. Please read SCA’s most recent

annual report for a better understanding of these risks and uncertainties.