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JULY 2016
“With last month's gain, sales are now up 4.5% from May 2015 and are at their highest annual pace since February 2007.”
- Lawrence YunNAR’s Chief Economist
“Now in its seventh year, the US economic recovery shows signsof slowing in the face of a strong dollar, a weakening global economy, and low energy prices. But as household growth continues to gain momentum, the housing sector should be an engine of growth.”
- Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University
“Demand for homes has been especially strong as more Americans find work, wages edge higher and mortgage rates remain historically low. We still have some ground to make up but housing remains a bright spot in the economy.”
- Freddie Mac
Freddie Mac 7/2016
30 Year FixedRate Mortgages
from Freddie Mac
Quarter Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average
of All Four
2016 4Q 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.00
2017 1Q 3.6 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.08
2017 2Q 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.28
2017 3Q 3.8 4.6 4.7 N/A 4.37
Mortgage Rate Projections
7/2016
Ipsos
Homeownership is…
an achievement to be proud of
a dream come true
MacArthur Foundation
Buying a home is an excellent long-term investment because it is likely to increase in value over time and it is one of the best ways for people to build wealth and assets:
“The bigger question is whether the housing crash diminished the general appeal of homeownership. The available evidence suggests that it has not.”
- Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University
% of Renters Who Prefer to Own Increasing
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
% of Renters Who Plan to Buy Increasing
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
“The more sustainable housing markets should allow for positive feedback loops in local economies, with strengthening job and income gains for residential real estate agents, mortgage bankers and home improvement workers.”
- David Berson, Nationwide's SVP & Chief Economist
Pending Home Salesover the last 18 months
2014
2015
2016
Buyer TrafficBy State
NAR
Seller TrafficBy State
NAR
0.4%
-4.7%
-1.7%
-3.1%
-4.5%
-1.9%
-3.8%
-2.2%
-1.1%-1.5%
-3.6%
-9.6%
June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Last 12 Months
HOUSING SUPPLYYear-Over-Year
June
NAR 7/2016
“The stock of existing homes for sale declined 1.9 percent last year, to 2.1 million units. Supply stood at 4.8 months, making 2015 the fourth consecutive year that inventories held below the 6.0-month level, the conventional measure of a balanced market.”
- Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University
- Bob WaltersQuicken Loans Chief Economist
“Many owners aren’t moving on from their current homes, which is holding back available inventory for both first time and move up buyers.
With values on the rise, this could prove to be an ideal time to sell – especially in the hot markets where owners could get more than they expected.”
- Lawrence YunChief Economist NAR
“The primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they've accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize.”
Significant EquityBy State
CoreLogic
Positive Equity ShareBy State
CoreLogic
- Anand NallathambiPresident and CEO of CoreLogic
“The CoreLogic Home Price Index was up 5.5% year over year through the first quarter.If home values rise another 5% uniformly across the U.S., the number of underwater borrowers will fall by another one million during the next year.”
“Buyers looking for the most expensive homes will find slashed prices, more options and less competition. It's a much different story for entry-level buyers, who will be up against rising prices, low inventory and tough competition, with homes selling over asking price in many of the nation's hottest housing markets.”
- Zillow
Trulia
Number of Homes for Sale 2016 versus 2012 by category
Zillow
Year-Over-YearPRICE CHANGES
by category
MacArthur Foundation
Thinking about the housing crisis that started in 2008, when many people and families defaulted on their mortgages and lost their
homes, I think the housing crisis is pretty much over
Fannie Mae
40%54% 59%
HowManyAmericans“Don’tKnow”?
????????????
Ipsos
Percentage who believe a 20% down payment is required to purchase a home
- Jonas MoeEllie Mae Senior VP
“The high median credit scores are due to many millennials believing they won’t qualify with the score they have - and are waiting to apply for a mortgage until they have the score they think they need.”
CoreLogicMarketPulse Report
“Consumers are cautious more than they have been in the past and thus the self-sidelining of cautious/discouraged consumers makes it appear as if credit is tightening. More consumer education such as counseling and financial literacy programs could be as or more successful in raising origination levels than introducing new lending products with lower credit standards.”
The average LTV ratio for those applying for a mortgage loan in the last three months by generation…
CoreLogic
Percentage of loan applications in previous 90-day cycle that have closed
Ellie Mae
Have the market information in visual form and at your fingertips…
Average Days on the Market
NAR
By State
4,300,000
4,400,000
4,500,000
4,600,000
4,700,000
4,800,000
4,900,000
5,000,000
5,100,000
5,200,000
5,300,000
5,400,000
5,500,000
5,600,000
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016
EXISTINGHome Sales
Since January 2014
NAR 7/2016
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500000
Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016
EXISTINGHome Sales
Since January 2012
NAR 7/2016
4.5%3.2%
-1.7%
6.5%
11.6%
U.S. Midwest South Northeast
Y-O-Y by region
EXISTINGHome Sales
NAR 7/2016
West
320340
451
497
542
341359
470
527
577
January February March April May
2015 2016
Total Home Salesin thousands
Freddie Mac
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2015 2016
Existing Home Sales in thousands
Freddie Mac
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2015 2016
New Home Sales in thousands
Freddie Mac
Jun-14 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May
New Home Sales Annualizedin thousands
Census
4%
14%
33%
24%
9% 10%
6%
Under $150K $150-$199K $200-$299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K
% of sales by price range
New Home Sales
Census
3.0
3.23.3
3.8
4.03.9
4.0
3.5 3.5
3.2
2.93.0
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.2
3.7
Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May
New Homes Selling Fast(median months from completion to sold)
Census
90
95
100
105
110
January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016
100 = Historically Healthy Level
PENDING Home Salessince 2012
NAR 7/2016
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
January 2014 January 2015 January 2016
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 7/2016
PENDING Home Salessince 2014
-0.2%
0.0%
-1.8%
0.6%
-0.1%Northeast South
NAR 7/2016
PENDINGHome Sales
Year-Over-Year By Region
MidwestWestU.S.
Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016
Percentage of Distressed Property
Sales
35%
7%10%
January 2012 - Today
NAR 7/2016
Home Prices
4.7%
-0.1%
7.7%
5.9%4.8%
U.S. Northeast West South Midwest
Y-O-Y by region
EXISTINGHome Prices
NAR 7/2016
-1.6%
8.2%
17.1% 16.5%15.0%
12.0%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+% -1.6% 8.2% 17.1% 16.5% 15.0% 12.0%
% Change in Sales from last yearby Price Range
NAR 7/2016
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
June 2012 January 2013 January 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016
S&P Case Shiller 7/2016
Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
Case Shiller
13.2%12.9%
12.4%
10.8%
9.3%
8.1%
6.7%
5.6%
4.8%4.5% 4.3% 4.5% 4.6%
5.0% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0%4.7%
5.4% 5.5% 5.7% 5.7%
Jan 2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016
Feb Mar Apr
5.5% 5.4%
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES20 City Composite
Case Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 7/2016
5.7%5.4%
Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price by State
CoreLogic
Quicken Loans
-1.4
-2.33
-2.65
-2 -1.98-1.87 -1.8 -1.75
-1.99-2.17
-1.95 -1.89
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar April May Jun% -1.4 -2.33 -2.65 -2 -1.98 -1.87 -1.8 -1.75 -1.99 -2.17 -1.95 -1.89
Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates
Last 12 Months
HOUSINGINVENTORY
Seller TrafficBy State
NAR
January 2011
January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
2011 - Today
NAR 7/2016
5.0
4.9
5.1
4.8 4.8
5.1
3.94.0
4.4 4.4
4.7 4.7
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 7/2016
Last 12 Months
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
last 2 years
NAR 7/2016
0.4%
-4.7%
-1.7%
-3.1%
-4.5%
-1.9%
-3.8%
-2.2%
-1.1%-1.5%
-3.6%
-9.6%
June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Last 12 Months
HOUSING SUPPLYYear-Over-Year
June
NAR 7/2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JuneJuly Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May% -24% -20. -16. -14%-13% -7.6 -5% -6.2 1.8%0.9%5.0%1.6%7.3%5.3%3.2%6.5% 6% 5.5%5.8%4.5% 6% 5.2% 5% -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 2% -0.9 1.80 0.40 -4.7 -1.7 -3.1 -4.5 -1.9 -3.8 -2.2 -1.1 -1.5 -3.6 -9.6
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 7/2016
4.8
4.5
5.0 5.0 5.0
5.5 5.55.6
4.9
5.3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2015 2016 Census
New Home Inventory months supply
5.5
5.2 5.2
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.5 5.55.6
4.9
5.3
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May
New Home Inventory months supply
Census
Last 12 Months
BUYERDEMAND
Buyer TrafficBy State
NAR
June July August September October November December January 2016 February March April May
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
NAR 7/2016
Last 12 Months
January 2015 February March April May June July August September October November December
2015 2016
Foot Traffic
NAR 7/2016
indicator of future sales
Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
NAR 7/2016
INTERESTRATES
Freddie Mac 7/2016
30 Year FixedRate Mortgages
from Freddie Mac
Quarter Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average
of All Four
2016 4Q 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0
2017 1Q 3.6 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.08
2017 2Q 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.28
2017 3Q 3.8 4.6 4.7 N/A 4.37
Mortgage Rate Projections
7/2016
2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4Rate 3.7 3.8 4 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8
Freddie Mac
Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate
- Actual- Projected2015
2016
2017
Mortgage Credit Availability
YES NO MAYBE
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Credit Availability
MBA
Historic Data for the MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX (a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association)
MBA
48 48
47
46 46
49 49 50
46
44 44
45
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Average Days To Close A Loan
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Last 12 Months
727
725
724
723
722
721
722
719
720
722
723
724
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb March April May
FICO Score Requirements
Last 12 months
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
0.02% 0.5%
8.8%
22.1%24.0%
31.9%
12.8%
500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800+
FICO Score Distribution
54.9%All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
724754
686
707
All Loans Conventional FHA VA
Average FICO Scorefor Closed Purchase Loans
by Loan Type
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
3834
41 40
All Loans Conventional FHA VA
Average Back End DTIfor Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
4 Lawrence Yun Quote http://www.realtor.org/news-releases /2016/06/existing- home-sal es-grow-18-percent-in-may-highest-pace-in-over-nine-years
5,11,19 JCHS Harvard Quote http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files /jchs_2016_state_of_the_nations_housing_lowres.pdf
6 Freddie Mac Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20160623_ahead_in_may.html
7, 75 30-Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
8, 76 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources /file/research/emma/pdf/Housi ng_Forecast_062016.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/201606-Outlook-06%2028%2016.pdfhttps://www.mba.org/Documents/R esearch/Mtg%20Fin%20Forecast%20Jun%202016.pdfhttp://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/r eports/2016/em bargoes/forecast-06-2016-us- economic-outl ook-06-29-2016.pdf
9, 30 Ipsos Survey https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/pr ess/2016/HomeownershipSurvey06142016.pdf
10,28 Buying A Home is Good Investment, Is Crisis Over? https://www.macfound.org/media/files/E-How_H ousing_M atters_National _Full_Report.pdf
12, 13 New York Fed Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2016/an160602
14 David Berson Quote http://www.dsnews.com/news/06-28-2016/housing-market-weathering-ongoing-headwinds
15 Pending Home Sales http://www.realtor.org
16-17, 39, 61,70
Buyer & Seller Traffic, Avg Days on the Market http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index
18 Housing Inventory http://www.realtor.org
20 Bob Walter Quote, Appraisal Gap http://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2016/06/14/ow ners-wester n-cities-underestimate-value-appraisers-homes/
21 Lawrence Yun Quote http://www.realtor.org/news-releases /2016/06/existing- home-sal es-grow-18-percent-in-may-highest-pace-in-over-nine-years
22-23, 24 CoreLogic Equity Report http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/homeowner-equity-report.aspx#
25,27 Zillow Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2016-06- 24-Entry-Level-Prices-Continue-to-Soar-while-Top- of-the-Market-Stabilizes
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
26 Number of Homes For Sale http://www.trulia.com/blog/trends/inventory-2q2016/
31 Jonas Moe Quote NAREE50th AnnualRealEstateJournalismConference
32 CoreLogic MarketPulse http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse-report .aspx#
34 CoreLogic LTV by Generation http://www.corelogic.com/blog/authors/archana-pradhan/2016/06/comparing-mortgage-credit-variables-by-applicant -age.aspx
40-42,52, 54-55 Existing Home Sales Report http://www.realtor.org/
43-45 Freddie Mac Home Sales http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20160623_ahead_in_may.html
46-48,67-68 New Home Sales, Inventory http://www.census.gov/constructi on/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
49-51 Pending Home Sales Report http://www.realtor.org/
56-57 Case Shiller Price Index https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/367344_cshomeprice-release-0628.pdf
58 Forecasted Price Changes http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price -insights.aspx#
62-66 Housing Inventory http://www.realtor.org
71-73 Foot Traffic http://www.realtor.org
77 Freddie Mac Projections http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
79-80 Mortgage Credit Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/forecasts-data-and-reports/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index
35, 81-85 Ellie Mae Report http://www.elliemae.com/origination-insi ght-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR _MAY2016.pdf
89-90 Ipsos Study Graphics https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/pr ess/2016/HomeownershipSurvey06142016.pdf
93 NAHB Graphic http://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics/housings-economic-impact/impact-of-home-building-and-remodeling-on-the-u-s--economy.aspx