John Ryding [email protected] (212) 584-3881 Conrad DeQuadros [email protected] (212) 584-3882 The information herein has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Copyright 2010 RDQ Economics LLC. All rights reserved. Unauthorized duplication, distribution or public display is strictly prohibited. Dail Economic Calendar July 13, 2010 RDQ=RDQ Economics C=Consensus R=Range L=Last NFIB small business optimism (June) 7:30am C=NA L=92.2 Firms planning to increase employment C=NA L=1% International t rade defici t (May) 8:30am RDQ=$40.8b C=$39.0b R=$37.0b to $41.5b L=$40.3b Exports C=NA L=-0.7% Imports C=NA L=-0.4% The softening in trade volumes in April (real exports fell 2.5% in April and real imports declined 1.5%) was not corroborated by global data on exports and imports—we look for a rebound in May, although nominal imports may have been held back by a price-related decline in oil imports as imported petroleum prices fell 5.0% in the month . We expect that the nominal trade deficit widened to $40.8 billion in May from $40.3 billion in April. Exports of Goods and Services three-month annu alized change, % ISM Manufacturing New Exports three-month average, % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Sources: Census Bureau, Institute for Supply Manag ement /Haver Analytics 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 TRADE INCONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL SLOWING The release of U.S. international trade data is lagged relative to many other countries. For example, Germany and Japan (among other countries) have already released May trade data and June trade figures are available for China and Brazil. Export growth in European, Asia n, and Latin American countries rema ined fairly robust in May and June, which does not support a picture of a substantial slowing in global economic activity (and is completely inconsistent with a double- dip). Over the three months ending June , Chinese exports have risen 86.9% at an annual rate. Germany Exports (year-over-year) China Exports (year-over-year) Brazil Exports (year-over-year) Japan Exports (year-over-year) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Sources: Bbk, Ha ver, M DIC, JMoF/JTA 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Treasury budge t deficit (June) 2:00pm RDQ=$69.0b C=$69.0b R=$62.0b to $103.0b L=$94.3b Based on Daily Treasury Statement s, the Treasury should report a budget deficit of around $69 billion in June, about $25 billion less than the deficit reported for June 2009. Although outlays increased versus the year-ago period, both corporate and personal tax receipts rose s ignificant on higher income. On our forecast, the Tre asury budget deficit would be reported at $1 trillion for the first nine months of the 2010 fiscal year.

July 13th economic activity - International trade

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8/9/2019 July 13th economic activity - International trade

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John Ryding

[email protected]

(212) 584-3881

Conrad DeQuadros

[email protected]

(212) 584-3882

Dail Economic CalendarJuly 13, 2010

RDQ=RDQ Economics C=Consensus R=Range L=LastNFIB small business optimism (June) 7:30am

C=NA L=92.2Firms planning to increase employment

C=NA L=1%

International trade deficit (May) 8:30am

RDQ=$40.8b C=$39.0b R=$37.0b to $41.5b L=$40.3bExports

C=NA L=-0.7%Imports

C=NA L=-0.4%The softening in trade volumes in April (real exports fell2.5% in April and real imports declined 1.5%) was notcorroborated by global data on exports and imports—welook for a rebound in May, although nominal imports mayhave been held back by a price-related decline in oil imports

as imported petroleum prices fell 5.0% in the month. Weexpect that the nominal trade deficit widened to $40.8 billionin May from $40.3 billion in April.

Exports of Goods and Servicesthree-month annualized change, %

ISM Manufacturing New Exportsthree-month average, %

109876543210Sources: Census Bureau, Institute for Supply Management /Haver Analytics

-20

-40

-60

TRADE INCONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL SLOWING

The release of U.S. international trade data is lagged relativeto many other countries. For example, Germany and Japan(among other countries) have already released May trade

data and June trade figures are available for China andBrazil. Export growth in European, Asian, and LatinAmerican countries remained fairly robust in May and June,

which does not support a picture of a substantial slowing inglobal economic activity (and is completely inconsistentwith a double-dip). Over the three months ending June,Chinese exports have risen 86.9% at an annual rate.

Germany Exports (year-over-year)

China Exports (year-over-year)

Brazil Exports (year-over-year)

Japan Exports (year-over-year)

109876543210Sources: Bbk, Haver, MDIC, JMoF/JTA

-20

-40

-60

-20

-40

-60

Treasury budget deficit (June) 2:00pm

RDQ=$69.0b C=$69.0b R=$62.0b to $103.0b L=$94.3bBased on Daily Treasury Statements, the Treasury shouldreport a budget deficit of around $69 billion in June, about$25 billion less than the deficit reported for June 2009.Although outlays increased versus the year-ago period, bothcorporate and personal tax receipts rose significant on highe

income. On our forecast, the Treasury budget deficit wouldbe reported at $1 trillion for the first nine months of the 201fiscal year.