July 11, 2006 / 3p

Phase IV Projection Emission Inventories

Fire Emissions Joint ForumJuly 11-12, 2006 Portland, OR

Dave Randall, Air Sciences Inc.

Phases of Fire EIs

• Phase II (historical 2002)

• Baseline (Phase III) (nominal 2000-2004)

• Projections (Phase IV) (nominal 2018)Activity Scenarios for each fire type

• Less• Likely• More

Note: The PLANNING inventories (Phase III & IV) are unique EI’s…unique from each other AND unique from Phase II

2018 Projection Activity Scalars

Fire-type Less Likely More

Wildfire 0.9 x (WF base + WFU base)

0.5 x (WF base + WFU base)

0.5 x (WF base + WFU base)

WFU 0.1 x (WFU base + WF base)

0.5 x (WFU base + WF base)

1.0 x (WFU base + WF base)

Rx Agency 0.25 x IFC 0.5 x IFC Interagency Fuels Committee activity targets

Rx S/P/O 1.0 x Baseline 2.0 x Baseline 3.0 x Baseline

Ag Baseline – (SJV & WA Orchard Removal)

NFR NRCS 2018 estimate

Anticipated 2018 Activity Levels (Acres)

Fire-type Less Likely More

WF + WFU 4.7 MM 4.7 MM 7.0 MM

Rx (broadcast + piles)

1.0 MM 2.0 MM 3.7 MM

Ag 1.7 MM

NFR 1.3 MM

Air Quality Planning Fire EI Suites

AQ Planning Suites - Fire Emission Inventory ProjectionsRevised: November 29, 2005

1 2 3 4

Base-caseBaseline

Control-case

Climate conditions/

resource limited

Max-App of Rx Fire

WF LIKELY Baseline MORE LIKELYWFU LIKELY Baseline MORE LIKELY

Rx ERT's applied LIKELY Baseline w/ERT LESS MORENFR ERT's applied LIKELY Baseline w/ERT LIKELY LIKELY

Ag ERT's applied LIKELY Baseline w/ERT LIKELY LIKELY

Fill each cell with appropriate Fire-Type-specific SCENARIO

(LESS , LIKELY , MORE)

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Source Activity Scenarios Grouped into Air Quality Planning Suites

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Acr

es

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

Prescribed Acres 669,348 1,959,146 966,251 3,704,081

WFU Acres 153,697 2,314,456 4,642,959 2,314,456

Wildfire Acres 4,517,818 2,291,618 2,291,618 2,291,618

Agricultural Acres 2,164,166 1,729,691 1,729,691 1,729,691

NF Rangeland Acres 1,042,003 1,256,106 1,256,106 1,256,106

Prescribed PM2.5 59,687 193,733 96,538 375,862

WFU PM2.5 41,173 574,159 1,128,127 574,159

Wildfire PM2.5 971,490 514,780 514,780 514,780

Agricultural PM2.5 18,816 11,713 11,713 11,713

NF Rangeland PM2.5 15,454 18,630 18,630 18,630

Baseline Control Case Base-caseClimate conditions/

resource limitedMax-App of Rx Fire

("Likely" activity and emission scenario choosen unless otherwise noted)

Mo

re

Mo

re

Mo

re

Less

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Fire Sources by Agency (without Alaska)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

Acr

es

BIA 47,818 47,818 19,109 38,358 77,749 0 2,132 27,763 91,986 600,239 395,475 125,454 125,454 0 0

BLM 89,916 95,447 57,251 117,195 236,575 208 11,554 458,238 870,609 473,904 947,452 524,324 524,324 0 0

FWS 33,737 28,636 39,303 79,759 159,377 0 2,139 17,888 53,786 34,166 49,374 22,266 22,266 0 0

NPS 22,972 28,047 8,707 19,638 43,124 8,154 7,184 23,218 64,175 35,293 26,341 10,835 10,835 0 0

USFS 239,916 244,147 616,318 1,243,609 2,493,466 33,633 41,190 766,572 1,455,405 1,898,385 1,658,546 920,005 920,005 0 0

STATE 36,920 37,449 36,411 75,095 112,325 0 0 0 0 0 0

PRIVATE 155,255 164,108 161,892 330,137 492,325 0 0 0 0 0 0

OTHER 21,401 22,452 21,694 44,907 67,357 0 31,262 194,370 428,361 443,966 375,533 126,229 126,229 1,042,003 1,042,003 1,257,004

Phase II Baseline less likely more Phase II Baseline likely more Phase II Baseline likely more Phase II Baseline likely

prescribed WFU Wildfire NF Rangeland

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Prescribed Burning by Agency: Broadcast and Piled (without Alaska)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Acr

es

BIA 33,041 33,041 13,527 27,143 55,199 14,778 14,778 5,582 11,215 22,551

BLM 86,206 90,860 60,730 124,415 250,445 3,710 4,587 1,521 2,768 6,126

FWS 33,574 28,473 38,708 78,498 156,785 164 164 1,100 2,275 4,625

NPS 21,454 25,801 8,050 18,277 40,180 1,518 2,245 657 1,361 2,945

USFS 194,462 196,306 496,885 997,256 1,994,033 45,454 47,841 119,433 246,353 499,433

STATE 30,094 29,646 28,819 59,454 88,938 6,826 7,803 7,592 15,641 23,387

PRIVATE 55,619 54,738 53,778 109,883 164,214 99,636 109,370 108,114 220,254 328,111

OTHER 20,362 20,824 20,206 41,649 62,473 1,039 1,628 1,488 3,258 4,884

Phase II Baseline less likely more Phase II Baseline less likely more

broadcast Piled

Rounding Deviation from Scalars and Activity Targets

• Multiplying a baseline level times its scalar arrived at an activity target in acres.

• By design, the Calc Tool pulls fire-days (with their complete acres and emissions) up to this activity target.

• For every jurisdiction in the calc tool, the event-based projection EI will therefore deviate from the activity targets.

• Can be thought of as a “rounding error.”

Rounding Deviation Statistics

• Assessed deviation by-state or by-agency or by-burn type for all fire types and scenarios.

• Did not attempt to hit each Rx state-agency-burn type combination.

• Average deviation of 2.6% for all 124 scalars needed for 2018 projections suites.

• 10 projections were over 10%. These had fewer than 100,000 acres as the projection target so could be affected by a large fire in seed data.

Detailed Results andCalc Tool Methods

AGGRESSIVE FOR EACH EVENT TO WHICH ERT’s ARE APPLIED:

LIKELY

LEAST AGGRESSIVE

Rx Events ANTH Portion of Rx

Events

Entire EI Controllable Portionof the EI

Regulatory Will of the Agencies - % of Controllable Acres to which ERT’s are

applied

ANTH Events

Subject to ERT Rules

ANTH Portion of Rx

Events

ANTH Portion of Rx Events

Technical Implementation

EMISSIONS X (1-ERF)

ERT APPLICATION RULESImplementation

ANTH Events to which ERT’s are

applied

ANTH Events to which ERT’s are applied

ANTH Events to which ERT’s are applied (a fnc. of Freq of Use of the

ERT in the sub-region

Emission reductions due to

ERTs

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Wildfire and WFU (with Alaska)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

Acr

es

0

1

2

Mil

lio

ns

To

ns

PM

2.5

Total Acres 4,671,515 4,606,074 6,934,577

Wildfire Acres 4,517,818 2,291,618 2,291,618

WFU Acres 153,697 2,314,456 4,642,959

WF+WFU PM2.5 1,012,663 1,088,938 1,642,907

Baseline Likely More

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Wildfire and WFU by State

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

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AK AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WY

Acr

es Sum of WFU

Sum of Wildfire

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Prescribed Burning: Burn Type (with Alaska)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

0

2

4

Mil

lio

ns

Acr

es

Averted (ERTs on Broad-ANTH) 12,595 29,301 59,145 114,423

Broadcast - ANTH 13,148 25,090 50,636 97,360

Piled - ANTH 8,318 11,256 22,816 40,080

Broadcast - NAT 38,221 60,192 120,281 238,422

Acres 669,348 966,251 1,959,146 3,704,081

Baseline Less Likely More

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Agricultural Burning Projection EIBaseline vs 2018 Projection Inventory (Proposed)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Ac

res

Baseline Acres 0 16,203 727,641 38,231 292,348 8,890 211,932 21,180 1,330 129,781 5,018 16,684 656,705 38,223 2,164,166

2018 Acres 0 16,203 294,500 38,231 292,348 8,890 211,932 21,180 1,330 129,781 5,018 16,684 655,371 38,223 1,729,691

Acres Removed 0 0 433,141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,334 0 434,475

AK AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WY Grand Total

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Agricultural Burning by State: Emissions Averted

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Acr

es

Emissions Averted 81 1,322 659 2,602 96 862 63 6 2,563 102 103 9,040 373

PM2.5 128 2,320 193 1,700 99 1,294 127 13 843 34 107 4,652 203

Acres 16,203 294,500 38,231 292,348 8,890 211,932 21,180 1,330 129,781 5,018 16,684 655,371 38,223

AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WY

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Non-Federal Prescribed Rangeland Burning by State

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Acr

es

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

Baseline Acres 0 250,001 40,000 12,000 8,000 150,001 25,000 60,000 1,000 300,001 150,001 25,000 6,000 15,000 1,042,003

Likely Acres 0 374,721 40,000 19,969 9,962 149,901 34,951 119,937 1,000 300,001 150,001 34,734 5,929 15,000 1,256,106

Baseline PM2.5 0 3,708 593 178 119 2,225 371 890 15 4,449 2,225 371 89 222 15,454

Likely PM2.5 0 5,558 593 296 148 2,223 518 1,779 15 4,449 2,225 515 88 222 18,630

AK AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WYGrand Total

Basic Steps to Run theCalc Tool

Calc Tool Prototype as Excel Workbook

Load Seed Data (WRAP Baseline)

1- User enters scalars 2- Tool calculates number of new events/acres needed

3- Hit “Go” and events are “looked up” from randomized Source sheet into New Events sheet

Post Processing

• Apply ERTs after Calc Tool selection(Will be integrated into Calc Tool.)– ERT Seasonal Suites for lookup table being

finished after yesterdays’ Strawman Session.

• Combine output into single 250,000 record all-scenario database for graphing & QA.

• Format into SMOKE and NIF files.

Significant Features of 2018 Projection Calc Tool

Significant Features –Software Architecture

• Software design strategy of “seed data” versus programming code to create new EI– Customize historic data to have appropriate seed events for

desired projection EI.– Leave Calc Tool code to only choose events up to activity

targets, not modify events per se.– Benefit: User can alter event data to suite EI planning rather

than reworking code.

• Pre-processing seed data– Random sort of events so new EI doesn’t have undesirable

patterns in events. (For instance an 0.5 scalar pulls events only from counties A – M because of original order.)

– Hand remove or flag ineligible events: Certain large Rx fires were causing big rounding errors in jurisdictions with small targets. Flag a realistic size limit for WFU events in WF pool.

Significant Features – Rx Stem Cell Events

• Creating fire events for 2018 where none existed in historic data (aka “stem cell events”)– Scalars and IFC activity targets resulted in 2018 Rx activity

projected for state-agency-burn type combinations which did not exist in 2002/baseline seed data.

– For only those instances, prototype prescribed burns were created outside the calc tool and augmented into seed data.

– 50 acre broadcast burns and 25 acre pile burns dropped on every 12-km grid cell per agency land where needed.

– Fuel loading (at centroid), lat/lon, and random date assigned to event (piles: April or November; broadcast: April or October).

– Benefit: Reasonable size and date with site-specific fuel loading satisfies this unexpected gap filling. Compatible with cloning.

Significant Features –Event Management

• Cloning events– Rx events are re-used to create more activity.– WF events are re-used to achieve WFU targets.– “Data inbreeding” mitigated by adjusting date +/- 7 days and

assuming event occurs elsewhere in same model grid cell.– Benefit: Create additional realistic model-ready activity for

2018 while not simply scattering events or scaling up emissions in existing events.

• Handling multi-day events and smoldering records– Random sort of seed events does preserve fire-day order

and smolder record pairing.– Benefit: Entire events are pulled into new EI.

Next Steps

• Deliver formatted output files from Phase IV Calc Tools and group into modeling suites – files ready for posting .

• Deliver Draft documentation for Phase III/IV Task Team Review – draft document should be posted within a week.

• Incorporate comments and deliver Phase III/IV Final documentation.

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Prescribed Burning Scenarios

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Acr

es

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

Baseline Acres 1,244 103,569 69,291 28,746 78,494 77,418 21,030 37,259 8,460 142,153 9,905 18,649 45,109 28,025

Less Acres 5,505 150,072 95,680 41,621 116,860 122,538 26,772 78,718 6,906 188,369 13,726 29,403 60,077 30,006

Likely Acres 11,002 297,937 191,740 90,329 234,519 250,593 54,509 160,830 15,491 379,089 31,157 59,196 121,514 61,242

More Acres 22,029 601,074 375,276 182,153 459,294 453,779 94,572 305,973 30,341 672,849 61,633 118,668 210,439 116,003

Baseline PM2.5 180 20,218 7,570 707 10,227 7,067 556 2,796 398 13,753 333 2,490 2,558 3,430

Less PM2.5 146 33,488 7,208 1,093 13,858 8,438 707 6,542 362 13,512 377 3,983 4,020 2,804

Likely PM2.5 230 66,275 14,936 2,305 28,206 17,131 1,446 12,852 789 27,082 809 7,674 8,144 5,853

More PM2.5 461 133,823 29,142 4,610 55,256 31,106 2,529 25,349 1,550 48,429 1,665 15,539 15,106 11,297

AK AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WY