Jul 26 Erste Group Technician

8/9/2019 Jul 26 Erste Group Technician

1/15

Erste Group Technician

Page 1

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research

Recommendations and opinions in this material are based solely on technical analysis. You can findfundamentally based recommendations in our FI & FX CEE Insights.

Current recommendations:1) Gold short, open @ 1188.5, target @ 1140.00, stop-loss @ 1205.00. Speculation on mid-term downtrend.

Time horizon: 6 weeks2) Platinum long, open @ 1545, target @ 1700.00, stop-loss @ 1515.00. Speculation on mid-term upward trend

after expected breakthrough of 1548.5 level/200-day moving average. Time horizon: 8 weeks

Instrument Direction Open Opened Target Stop-loss P/L (%) commentGold short 1188.55 26.7.2010 1140 1205 6 weeks remainingPlatinum long 1545 26.7.2010 1700 1515 8 weeks remaining

SummaryEUR/CZKCombination of 25.00 level and almost oversold euro should prevent immediate breakthrough of 25.00 level. Shortcorrection back above is likely, but downward momentum should ensure continuation of downtrend later.

EUR/PLNConfirmed breakthrough of combination of 4.07 level and 60- and 200-day moving averages should open room forstrengthening to 3.973 level. However, more likely scenario is return to 4.07-4.19 range.

EUR/HUFMost likely technical scenario is consolidation below 290 level. Upward momentum is weakening, so testing of lowerbound of range is possible later on.

EUR/RONWeakening upward momentum increased likelihood of drop towards 60-day moving average.

EUR/TRYMACD buy signal must be confirmed by breakthrough of 20- and 60-day moving averages before it may be consideredvalid. We can expect decline below 1.90 in such case. Otherwise, consolidation in range determined by 60- and 200-day moving averages is likely.

EUR/USDWeakening upward momentum increases risk of pull-back towards 1.25 level. It seems that 1.30 level is safe for now.

EUR/JPY

Consolidation should continue. Testing of 113.5 level is increasingly likely (prevailing upward momentum).

EUR/CHFTesting of combination of 1.3758 level and 60-day moving average is possible. Upward momentum is still strong.

BrentTesting of 80 level is possible, but breakthrough is unlikely because of ambiguous momentum (ROC).

Analyst: Lubo [email protected]

Overview of technical recommendations

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research July 26 2009


2/15


Page 2


EUR/CZK Main trend: decline

Short-term trend: decline

R6: 26.80 top

R5: 26.40 consolidation

R4: 26.00 psychological, top, bottom

R3: 25.80 consolidations



S1: 25.00 psychological, bottom

S2: 24.80 consolidation

Koruna strengthened to below 25.20 level. MACD is in declining trend below zero level. It is

oversold. Both ROCs are in declining trend below zero level.

RSI is testing oversold level. Combination of 25.00 level and almost oversold euroshould prevent immediate breakthrough of 25.00 level.Short correction back above is likely, but downwardmomentum should ensure continuation of downtrendlater on.

Daily QEURCZK= 17.12.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

26,4007

26,0012

25,7988

25,4584

25,1973

25,0044

SMA;; 25,4093

EMA;; 25,5163

Cndl;; 25,1420

EMA;; 25,5953

Price

CZK

.1234

25,1

25,2

25,3

25,4

25,5

25,6

25,7

25,8

25,9

26

26,1

26,2

26,3

21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURCZK= 14.9.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

CZK

.1234

-0,1

0

0,1

ValueCZK

.123

-2

0

2

Value

CZK

.123

20

40

60

80

16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18 01 16 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 02IX 09 X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


3/15


Page 3


EUR/PLN Main trend: consolidation

Short-term trend: decline

R3: 4.19 top

R2: 4.15 top, consolidation

R1: 4.07 bottoms, Fibonacci level

S1: 3.973 bottom, consolidation

S2: 3.93tops

S3: 3.863 bottom, bottom of consolidation, Fibonacci level

S4: 3.83 top, top of consolidation

Zloty is testing lower bound of 4.07-4.19 range. MACD is in volatile downward trend. It is testing zerolevel. Both ROCs turned downwards. ROC60 is above zerolevel, ROC20 is below zero level.

RSI returned below neutral level. Confirmed breakthrough of combination of 4.07 leveland 60- and 200-day moving averages should open room forstrengthening to 3.973 level. However, more likely is return to4.07-4.19 range.

Daily QEURPLN= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

4,273338,2%

4,068250,0%

3,86361,8%

4,1917

3,9732

Cndl;; 4,0370

3MA;; 4,0920; 4,0688; 4,0638

Price

PLN

.1234

3,85

3,9

3,95

4

4,05

4,1

4,15

4,2

4,25

05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02

X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURPLN= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

PLN

.1234

-0,03

0

0,03

Value

PLN

.123

-5

0

5

Value

PLN

.123

20

40

60

80

19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02



4/15


Page 4


EUR/HUF Main trend: growth

Short-term trend: growth

R1: 290 tops

S1: 283 top

S2: 279 tops

S3: 272.4 top, Fibonacci level

S4: 266 tops

S5: 264.5 bottoms

S6: 261.85 Fibonacci level, bottom level of consolidation range

S7: 258 tops, bottom level of consolidation

Forint is in volatile consolidation in 283 - 290 range. MACD rebounded from zero level. ROC20 is fluctuating wildly above zero level. ROC60is in volatile sideways trend and is overbought. RSI is in sideways trend above neutral level.

Most likely technical scenario is consolidation below290 level. Upward momentum is weakening, so testing oflower bound of range is possible later on.

Daily QEURHUF= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

279,02

266

282,9538,2%

272,450,0%

261,8561,8%

290,03

SMA;; 283,54

EMA;; 279,81

Cndl;; 285,01

EMA;; 276,41

Price

HUF

.12

264

267

270

273

276

279

282

285

288

05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02


Daily QEURHUF= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

HUF

.12

-1

0

1

2

Value

HUF

.123

0

5

Value

HUF

.123

20

40

60

80

19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02



5/15


Page 5


EUR/RON Main trend: growth


R2: 4.385 top

R1: 4.2934 consolidation, top

S1: 4.23 Fibonacci level, bottom of consolidation

S2: 4.19 bottoms

S3: 4.11 bottoms, Fibonacci level

S4: 4.07 Fibonacci projection, bottoms

S5: 3.97 Fibonacci projection level, top

S6: 3.80 top

Lei paused in its short-term weakening trend. MACD is in sideways trend above zero level. ROC60 is in consolidation above zero level. ROC60declined sharply below zero level. RSI is in sideways trend slightly above neutral level.

Weakening upward momentum increased likelihood ofdrop towards 60-day moving average.

Daily QEURRON= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

4,1911

4,0794

4,3848

4,29540,0%

4,108523,6%

SMA;; 4,2686

EMA;; 4,2264

Cndl;; 4,2520

EMA;; 4,2005

Price

RON

.1234

4,08

4,12

4,16

4,2

4,24

4,28

4,32

4,36

05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02


Daily QEURRON= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

MACD;; 0,0044; 0,0071

MACDF;; -0,0027Value

RON

.1234

-0,02

0

0,02

ROC;; -2,544

ROC;; 3,004

EMA;; 3,227

Value

RON

.123

-4

0

4

RSI;; 49,746

MARSI;; 50,419Value

RON

.123

20

40

60

80

05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02



6/15


Page 6


EUR/TRY Main trend: decline


R7: 2.1871 top of consolidation

R6: 2.1447bottom of consolidation

R5: 2.115 Fibonacci level, consolidations

R4: 2.075 bottoms

R3: 2.04 Fibonacci level, bottoms

R1: 2.00 bottom, psychological

S1: 1.967 Fibonacci level, top of consolidation range bottom

S2: 1.8825 bottom of consolidation range

Lira rebounded from 200-day moving averageto combination of 20- and 60-day moving averages andis now in consolidation. MACD sent buy signal for lira. ROC60 is in rising trend and is testing zero

level. ROC20 dropped close to zero level. RSI declined to neutral level. MACD buy signal must be confirmed bybreakthrough of 20- and 60-day moving averagesbefore it may be considered valid. We can expectdecline below 1.90 in such case. Otherwise,consolidation in range determined by 60- and 200-daymoving averages is likely.

Daily QEURTRY= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

2,051

2,1836

1,8988

2,2934

SMA;; 1,9616

EMA;; 1,9605

Cndl;; 1,9620

EMA;; 1,9937

Price

TRY

.1234

1,92

1,96

2

2,04

2,08

2,12

2,16

2,2

2,24

2,28

05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02


Daily QEURTRY= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

TRY

.1234

-0,02

-0,01

0

0,01

Value

TRY

.123

-5

0

Value

TRY

.123

20

40

60

80

19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02



7/15


Page 7


EUR/USD Main trend: decline

Short-term trend: consolidation

R4: 1.38 Fibonacci level, top

R3: 1.3488 Fibonacci level

R2: 1.327 local low

R1: 1.300 psychological

S1: 1.290 local low

S2: 1.250 important local low

S3: 1.217 bottom of consolidation

S4: 1.200 psychological

S5: 1.190 bottom

Dollar is in consolidation below 1.30 level. MACD is in slowing upward trend. It is above zerolevel and overbought. Both ROCs are in rising trend. ROC20 is above andROC60 is below zero level.

RSI is slightly below overbought level. Weakening upward momentum increases risk of pull-back towards 1.25 level. It seems that 1.30 level is safe fornow.

Daily QEUR= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)1,51410,0%

1,45123,6%

1,411938,2%

1,380450,0%

1,348861,8%

1,2466100,0%

1,1907

SMA;1,2692

EMA;1,2684

Cndl;1,2925

EMA;1,2985

Price

USD

.1234

1,2

1,23

1,26

1,29

1,32

1,35

1,38

1,41

1,44

1,47

05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02


Daily QEUR= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

USD

.1234

-0,02

-0,01

0

Value

USD

.123

-10

-5

0

Value

USD

.123

20

40

60

80

19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02



8/15


Page 8


EUR/JPY Main trend: decline Short-term trend: consolidation

R7: 132.5 Fibonacci level

R6: 129.0 tops of consolidations, Fibonacci level

R5: 126.0 bottom level of consolidation, tops, Fibonacci level

R4: 123.0 Fibonacci levelR3: 120.74 Fibonacci level, bottom

R2: 117.0 bottoms

R1: 113.5 bottom

S1: 110 psychological

S2: 108.7 bottom

EURJPY is in consolidation below 113.5 level. MACD is testing zero level. ROC20 is in consolidation around zero level. ROC60is in slow rising trend and is still oversold. RSI is in rising trend above neutral level.

Consolidation should continue. Testing of 113.5 levelis increasingly likely (prevailing upward momentum).

Daily QEURJPY= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

120,74

108,72

138,40,0%

132,5423,6%

128,9138,2%

125,9750,0%

123,0461,8%

113,54100,0%

SMA;; 111,36

EMA;; 113,63

Cndl;; 112,47

EMA;; 117,44

Price

JPY

.12

108

111

114

117

120

123

126

129

132

135

05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02


Daily QEURJPY= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

JPY

.12

-3

-2

-1

0

ValueJPY

.123

-10

-5

0

Value

JPY

.123

20

40

60

80

19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02



9/15


Page 9


EUR/CHF Main trend: decline

Short-term trend: correction

R4: 1.435 top of consolidation

R3: 1.4257 bottom

R2: 1.4000 psychological

R1: 1.3758 low

S1: 1.318 low

EURCHF fell to 20-day moving average and thenrebounded from it. MACD is sharply rising. Both ROCs are rising. ROC20 rose above zero level,ROC60 remains below zero level.

RSI is wavering around neutral level. Testing of combination of 1.3758 level and 60-daymoving average is possible. Upward momentum is still strong.

Daily QEURCHF= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

1,42570,0%

1,474423,6%

1,504438,2%

1,435

1,3758

1,3184

SMA;1,3409

EMA;1, 3751

Cndl;1,3577

EMA;1, 4049

Price

CHF

.1234

1,32

1,34

1,36

1,38

1,4

1,42

1,44

1,46

1,48

1,5

05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02


Daily QEURCHF= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

CHF

.1234

-0,02

-0,015

-0,01

-0,005

0

Value

CHF

.123

-6

-4

-2

Value

CHF

.123

20

40

60

80

19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02

jen 2009 listopad 2009 prosinec 2009 leden 2010 nor 2010 bezen 2010 duben 2010 kvten 2010 erven 2010 ervenec 2010


10/15


Page 10


Brent Main trend: consolidation


R3: 86 top

R2: 82 top. Bottom of consolidation range

R1: 80 psychological, top of consolidation range

S1: 78 top, consolidation

S2: 75 top

S3: 72 top. bottom

Brent is close to testing of 80 psychological level. MACD is in rising trend above zero level. Both ROCs are in slow declining trend. ROC20 istesting zero level, ROC60 is below zero level. RSI is in slow rising trend above neutral level.

Testing of 80 level is possible, but breakthrough isunlikely because of ambiguous momentum (ROC).

Daily QBRT- 29.9.2009 - 9.8.2010 (UTC)

64,76

70,28

79,01

82,02

74,120,0%

77,1323,6%

78,9938,2%

80,550,0%

8261,8%

86,87100,0%86,91

SMA;; 75,68

EMA;; 76,27

Cndl;; 78,04

EMA;; 76,29

Price

USD

Bbl

.12

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 06 12 19 26 04 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10 Daily QBRT- 8.9.2009 - 3.8.2010 (UTC)

Value

USD

Bbl

.12

-3

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

Value

USD

Bbl

.123

-20

-15

-10

-50

5

Value

USD

Bbl

.123

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 06 12 19 26 04 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02

IX 09 X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


11/15


Page 11


Closed trading ideasInstrument Direction Open Opened Target Stop-loss P/L (%) CommentEURRON long 3.529 18.8.2008 3.660 3.40 +0.45% closed on timeEURHUF short 233.86 25.8.2008 229.00 236.00 -1.13% closed stop-lossEURUSD long 1.4788 25.8.2008 1.5600 1.4580 -1.41% closed stop-lossCopper long 357.23 25.8.2008 398.00 355.00 -0.62% closed stop loss

EURUSD long 1.4605 1.9.2008 1.5600 1.4480 -0.86% closed stop lossGold long 774.2 15.9.2008 860 745 +11.11%closed on targetEURCZK long 24.128 15.9.2008 24.90 23.90 -0.9% closed stop lossEURPLN short 3.343 15.9.2008 3.22 3.365 -0.65% closed stop lossEURUSD long 1.418 15.9.2008 1.56 1.44 +1.55% closed lock inEURJPY long 156.23 22.9.2008 168.0 153.8 -1.56% closed stop lossOil Brent long 101.7 22.9.2008 118 98 -3.64% closed stop lossCopper long 314.33 29.9.2008 330 309 -1.7% closed stop lossLead short 1858 29.9.2008 1770 1895 +4.97% closed on targetGold short 896.4 29.9.2008 870 910 -1.49% closed stop lossPlatinum long 1087,5 29.9.2008 1230 1060 -2.53% closed stop lossBrent long 85.2 6.10.2008 80 87 +6.5% closed on targetEURHUF long 251.2 6.10.2008 258 248 -1.27% closed stop loss

Oil Brent long 76 13.10.2008 90 74.5 +2.56% closed lock inBrent long 69.6 20.10.2008 90.0 68.0 -2.30% closed stop lossEURJPY long 136.7 13.10.2008 156.0 133.0 -2.71% closed stop lossEURPLN short 3.55 13.10.2008 3.28 3.63 -2.20% closed stop lossEURHUF short 268.38 20.10.2008 245.0 274.0 -2.05% closed stop lossEURUSD long 1.3428 20.10.2008 1.4300 1.3220 -1.94% closed stop lossCopper short 223.85 20.10.2008 145.0 190.0 +17.82% closed lock inGold long 730 27.10.2008 830 740.0 +1.37% closed lock inEURCHF short 1.4412 27.10.2008 1.3620 1.4650 -1.62 closed stop lossPlatinum short 751 27.10.2008 600 775 -3.1% closed stop lossEURUSD short 1.2462 27.10.2008 1.1830 1.2650 -1.49% closed stop lossEURRON long 3.744 10.11.2008 3.970 3.650 +0.96% closed lock inEURJPY long 116.41 27.10.2008 140.0 120.0 +3.08% closed lock inPlatinum short 859 10.11.2008 595 905 +2.44% closed on timeLead long 1225 24.11.2008 1475 1175 -4.08% closed stop lossBrent long 47.64 24.11.2008 65 44.8 -6.02% closed stop lossCopper long 175 10.11.2008 300 145 -17.14% closed stop lossEURRON short 3.80 24.11.2008 3.60 3.88 -2.06% closed stop lossEURROL short 4.3145 12.1.2009 4.070 4.420 +1.28% closed lock inEURUSD short 1.3355 12.1.2009 1.275 1.365 +3.1% closed on timeEURCHF long 1.4883 12.1.2009 1.570 1.46 +1.01% closed on timeEURJPY long 118.57 19.1.2009 133.0 116.0 -2.17% closed stop lossPlatinum short 947.5 19.1.2009 880 975 -2.27% closed on timeLead short 1159 26.1.2009 1055 1220 +3.95% closed on timeEURRON short 4.2465 26.1.2009 4.0700 4.32 -1.7% closed stop lossEURCHF long 1.5032 26.1.2009 1.57 1.483 -1.34% closed stop lossCopper long 149.6 19.1.2009 240.0 155.0 +3.61% %closed lock inEURPLN short 4.818 16.2.2009 4.42 4.87 -1.07% closed stop lossEURUSD long 1.2588 2.3.2009 1.2980 1.2450 -0.18% closed on timeEURCZK long 28.18 2.3.2009 29.80 28.00 -0.64% closed stop lossGold long 932.7 2.3.2009 985.0 920.0 -1.36% closed stop lossEURJPY long 117.15 16.2.2009 128.0 121.0 +6.10% closed on timeGold long 914.65 9.3.2009 985 920 +0.58% closed lock inEURPLN short 4.4458 16.3.2009 3.95 4.55 -2.29% closed stop lossEURJPY short 128 16.3.2009 117 129.5 -1.16% closed stop lossEURUSD long 1.3005 16.3.2009 1.43 1.35 +3.81% closed lock inEURJPY long 131.58 23.3.2009 150 128 -2.40% closed stop lossLead long 1286 16.3.2009 1500 1180 +3.42% closed on time

Oil Brent long 51.45 23.3.2009 70 47 -8.65% closed stop lossEURCZK long 27.45 30.3.2009 28.70 26.90 -2.32% closed stop lossEURUSD short 1.3194 30.3.2009 1.28 1.3325 -0.98% closed stop loss


12/15


Page 12

Technician Macro/Fixed Income ResearchEURPLN short 4.4351 6.4.2009 4.15 4.55 +2.29% closed on timeEURCZK long 26.591 6.4.2009 27.90 26.30 -0.94% closed on timeCopper long 147.15 23.2.2009 240.0 200.0 +35.92% closed lock inEURPLN short 4.382 11.5.2009 4.12 4.42 -0.86% closed stop lossEURUSD long 1.351 18.5.2009 1.280 1.365 -1.03% closed stop lossGold long 929.4 18.5.2009 980 918 +5.44% closed profit target

EUR/PLN short 4.409 25.5.2009 4.16 4.46 -1.1% closed stop lossBrent short 70.51 15.6.2009 49.5 70.0 +0.73% closed lock inEURUSD short 1.386 22.6.2009 1.3617 1.395 -0.65% closed stop lossEURCZK short 26.03 22.6.2009 24.80 26.45 +0.5% closed on timePlatinum short 1183.5 29.6.2009 1120 1210 +3.54% closed on timeEURJPY short 132.67 22.6.2009 115.5 136.5 -2.81% closed stop lossGold short 953.25 10.8.2009 910 973 +1.61% closed on timePlatinum short 1242 10.8.2009 1110 1330 -1.00% closed on timeEURJPY short 132.87 17.8.2009 128 135.3 -1.80% stop lossEURPLN short 4.1105 24.8.2009 3.98 4.155 +0.26% closed on timeCopper short 288.12 17.8.2009 255 295 -2.33% closed stop lossEURJPY short 133.04 31.8.2009 126.5 134.5 +0.54% closed on timeGold short 999.0 14.9.2009 955.0 1010.000 -1.08% closed stop loss

Platinum long 1349.5 19.10.2009 1440 1335 -1.07% closed stop lossBrent short 78.59 26.10.2009 72.1 80.6 +4.09% closed lock inLead short 2304.852.11.2009 2250 2350 +0.34% closed on timeEURCZK short 26.11 30.11.2009 25.45 26.55 +1.3% closed on timeEURHUF short 273.05 30.11.2009 264 276.5 +1.31% closed on timeEURJPY long 130.4 30.11.2009 135 128.5 -0.61% closed on timeEURHUF short 273.69 14.12.2009 266 276.5 -0.66% closed stop lossEURJPY long 129.6 14.12.2009 134.5 128.0 -1.23% closed stop lossCopper short 316 14.12.2009 285 330 -2.80% closed on timeBrent long 73.21 21.12.2009 78 71 +6.54% closed profit targetEURJPY long 129.94 21.12.2009 138 127.5 +3.36% closed on timeEURUSD long 1.436 21.12.2009 1.53 1.415 +0.08% closed on timeEURCZK short 26.26 4.1.2010 25.55 26.55 +1.54% closed on time

Copper long 339.5 18.1.2010 400 325 -4.27% stop lossLead short 2250.3 25.1.2010 2080 2285 +8.19% closed profit targetEURJPY long 127.66 25.1.2010 138 125 -2.08% stop lossEURCHF long 1.4722 1.2.2010 1.4950 1.4620 -0.69% stop lossPlatinum long 1530 1.2.2010 1640 1475 +1.31% lock inBrent long 72.17 1.2.2010 82 70.5 +3.23% lock inCopper short 308.6 1.2.2010 280 316 +6.53% closed on timeGold short 1122.7522.2.2010 1060 1145 +0.53% closed on timeEURUSD long 1.362 22.2.2010 1.408 1.342 -0.85% closed on timeEURJPY short 120.59 1.3.2010 117 122.3 -1.40% stop lossBrent long 72.17 15.2.2010 82.0 79.5 +10.16%lock inLead long 2181 1.3.2010 2350 2240 +2.71% lock inPlatinum long 1550 1.3.2010 1640 1520 +4.13% closed on time

Gold short 1125.9 8.3.2010 1064 1145 +2.10% closed on timeCopper short 338.6 22.3.2010 290 345 -1.86% stop lossEURPLN long 3.893 22.3.2010 4.05 3.87 -0.59% stop lossLead long 2186 29.3.2010 2600 2080 +0.87% closed on timeEURRON long 4.1225 12.4.2010 4.23 4.10 +0.76% closed on timePlatinum long 1725.5 12.4.2010 2000 1670 -3.22% stop lossCopper short 353.3 26.4.2010 342 357 +3.3% closed profit targetEURRON short 4.1161 26.4.2010 3.95 4.145 -0.7% stop lossPlatinum long 1744.5 26.4.2010 2200 1640 -5.99% stop lossEURON short 4.126 3.5.2010 3.95 4.165 -0.94% stop lossCopper long 329.6 3.5.2010 362 325 -1.40% stop lossGold long 1183 3.5.2010 1215 1165 -1.52% stop lossLead short 2230 3.5.2010 2020 2275 +10.4% closed profit target

EURHUF long 273.7 10.5.2010 269 275.5 -0.65% stop lossLead long 2110 10.5.2010 2200 2070 -1.90% stop lossCopper long 321.45 10.5.2010 335 315 -2.01% stop loss


13/15


Page 13

Technician Macro/Fixed Income ResearchGold short 1193.4 10.5.2010 1080 1215 -1.78% stop lossEURJPY long 114.6 17.5.2010 120 112 -2.27% stop lossBrent long 74.17 17.5.2010 79 73 -1.58% stop lossCopper long 305.25 17.5.2010 325 298 -2.38% stop lossLead short 1903 17.5.2010 1600 1950 +7.51% lock inCopper long 305.25 17.5.2010 325 298 -2.61% stop loss

Brent long 69.63 25.5.2010 79 67 -3.78% stop lossPlatinum long 1526 25.5.2010 1640 1450 +2.39% closed on timeLead short 1830 25.5.2010 1520 1860 +7.65% lock inEURJPY long 111.95 25.5.2010 119 108 -2.82% closed on timeEURPLN short 4.10 25.5.2010 3.86 4.22 +0.61% closed on timeCopper short 307.15 31.5.2010 295 314 +4.12% closed profit targetGold short 1216.2 31.5.2010 1140 1230 -1.12% stop lossEURPLN short 4.0322 21.6.2010 3.87 4.08 -1.17% stop lossEURJPY long 112.98 21.6.2010 126 111 -1.75% stop lossEURCHF long 1.3729 21.6.2010 1.395 1.367 -0.43% stop lossBrent short 77.24 28.6.2010 74.00 78.00 +4.38% closed profit targetLead long 1840 28.6.2010 2000 1815 -1.36% stop lossPlatinum long 1561.5 31.5.2010 1740 1500 -3.94% stop loss

Gold long 1202.6 12.7.2010 1240 1195 -0.63% stop lossEURCHF long 1.3371 12.7.2010 1.3758 1.3255 +1.5% closed on time


14/15


Page 14


ContactsGroup ResearchHead of Group ResearchFriedrich Mostbck, CEFA +43 (0)5 0100 - 11902 Research TurkeyCEE Equity Research Head: Erkin Sahinoz (Fixed Income) +90 212 371 2540Co-Head: Gnther Artner, CFA +43 (0)5 0100 - 11523 Ali Cakiroglu (Fixed Income) +90 212 371 2536Co-Head: Henning Ekuchen +43 (0)5 0100 - 19634 Sadrettin Bagci (Equity) +90 212 371 2537

Gnter Hohberger (Banks) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17354 Can Oztoprak (Equity) +90 212 371 2539Franz Hrl, CFA (Steel, Construction) +43 (0)5 0100 - 18506 Research, SlovakiaGernot Jany, CFA (Banks, Real Estate) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11903 Head: Juraj Barta, CFA (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4166Daniel Lion, CIIA (IT) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17420 Michal Musak (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4512Christoph Schultes, CIIA (Insurance, Utility) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16314 Maria Valachyova (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4185Thomas Unger; CFA (Oil&Gas) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17344 Research, UkraineVera Sutedja, CFA (Telecom) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11905 Head: Victor Stefanyshyn (Fixed Income) +38 044 593 - 1784Vladimira Urbankova, MBA (Pharma) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17343 Svitlana Bazilevich (Equity) +38 044 593 - 9286Gerald Walek, CFA (Machinery) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16360 Maryan Zablotskyy (Fixed income) +38 044 593 - 9188International Equities Fixed Income & Credit Institutional SalesHans Engel (Market strategist) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19835 Group Institutional SalesStephan Lingnau (Europe) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16574 Head: Jaromir Malak +43 (0)50100 - 84254Ronald Stferle (Asia) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11723 Fixed Income & Credit Institutional Sales G7 Macro/Fixed Income Research Head: Thomas Almen +43 (0)50100 - 84323Head: Gudrun Egger, CEFA (Euroland) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11909 Institutional Sales AustriaMildred Hager (SW, Japan) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17331 Head: Thomas Almen +43 (0)50100 84323Alihan Karadagoglu (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19633 Martina Fux +43 (0)50100 - 84113Peter Kaufmann (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11183 Michael Konczer +43 (0)50100 - 84121Carmen Riefler-Kowarsch (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19632 Margit Hraschek +43 (0)50100 - 84117

Rainer Singer (US) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11185 Institutional Sales GermanyElena Statelov, CIIA (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19641 Head: Ingo Lusch +43 (0)50100 - 84111Macro/Fixed Income Research CEE Michael Schmotz +43 (0)50100 - 84114Co-Head CEE: Juraj Kotian (Macro/FI) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17357 Institutional Sales LondonCo-Head CEE: Rainer Singer (Macro/FI) +43 (0)5 0100 11185 Antony Brown +44 20 7623 - 4159Editor Research CEE Lukas Linsbichler +44 20 7623 - 4159Brett Aarons +420 233 005 904 Simone Pilz +44 20 7263 - 4159Research, Croatia/Serbia Institutional Sales SlovakiaHead: Mladen Dodig +381 11 22 00 866 Head: Peter Kniz +421 2 4862-5624Alen Kovac (Fixed income) +385 62 37 1383 Sarlota Sipulova +421 2 4862-5629Davor Spoljar (Equity) +385 62 37 2825 Institutional Sales Czech RepublicResearch, Czech Republic Head: Ondrej Cech +420 2 2499 - 5577Head: David Navratil (Fixed income) +420 224 995 439 Pavel Zdichynec +420 2 2499 - 5590Petr Bartek (Equity) +420 224 995 227 Milan Bartos +420 2 2499 - 5562Vaclav Kminek (Media) +420 224 995 289 Radek Chupik +420 2 2499 - 5565Jana Krajcova (Fixed income) +420 224 995 232 Institutional Sales Croatia, Hungary, RomaniaRadim Kramule (Oil&Gas) +420 224 995 213 Head: Jaromir Malak +43 (0)501 00 - 84254Martin Lobotka (Fixed income) +420 224 995 192 Institutional Sales Croatia

Lubos Mokras (Fixed income) +420 224 995 456 Natalija Petljak +385 (0)6237 - 1638Research, Hungary Institutional Sales HungaryHead: Jzsef Mir (Equity) +361 235-5131 Istvan Kovacs +36 1 235 5846Bernadett Papp (Equity) +361 235-5135 Norbert Siklosi +36 1 235 - 5842Gergely Gabler (Equity) +361 253-5133 Institutional Sales RomaniaZoltan Arokszallasi (Fixed income) +361 373-2830 Ruxandra Carlan +40 21 310-4449-612Research, Poland Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)50100 - 84253Head: Artur Iwanski (Equity) +48 22 330 6253 International & High End SalesMagda Zabieglik (Equity) +48 22 330 6250 Head: Zachary Carvell +43 (0)50100 - 83308Tomasz Kasowicz (Equity) +48 22 330 6251 Piotr Zagan +43 (0)50100 - 84256Piotr Lopaciuk (Equity) +48 22 330 6252 Ulrich Inhofner +43 (0)50100 - 84324Marek Czachor (Equity) +48 22 330 6254 Darko Horvatin +43 (0)50100 - 84259Bianka Madej (Equity) +48 22 330 6260 Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)50100 - 84253Research, RomaniaHead: Lucian Claudiu Anghel +40 21 312 6773Mihai Caruntu (Equity) +40 21 311 27 54Dumitru Dulgheru (Fixed income) +40 21 312 6773 1028Cristian Mladin (Fixed income) +40 21312 6773 1028Eugen Sinca (Fixed income) +40 21312 6773 1028

Raluca Ungureanu (Equity) +40 21311 2754

Treasury - Erste Bank ViennaSaving Banks & Sales RetailHead: Thomas Schaufler +43 (0)5 0100 - 84225Equity Retail SalesHead: Kurt Gerhold +43 (0)5 0100 - 84232Fixed Income & Certificate SalesHead: Markus Kaller +43 (0)5 0100 - 84239Treasury Domestic SalesHead: Gottfried Huscava +43 (0)5 0100 - 84142Corporate SalesHead: Christian Skopek +43 (0)5 0100 - 84146


15/15



Published by Erste Group Bank AG, Neutorgasse 17, 1010 Vienna, Austria.

Phone +43 (0)5 0100 17357 or 11185.

Erste Bank Homepage: www.erstegroup.com On Bloomberg please type: ERBK .

This research report was prepared by Erste Group Bank AG (Erste Group) or its affiliate named herein. The information herein has been obtained from, and anyopinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions,forecasts and estimates herein reflect our judgement on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The report is not intended to be an offer, or thesolicitation of any offer, to buy or sell the securities referred to herein. From time to time, Erste Group or its affiliates or the principals or employees of Erste Group or itsaffiliates may have a position in the securities referred to herein or hold options, warrants or rights with respect thereto or other securities of such issuers and may makea market or otherwise act as principal in transactions in any of these securities. Erste Group or its affiliates or the principals or employees of Erste Group or its affiliatesmay from time to time provide investment banking or consulting services to or serve as a director of a company being reported on herein. Further information on thesecurities referred to herein may be obtained from Erste Group upon request. Past performance is not necessarily indicative for future results and transactions insecurities, options or futures can be considered risky. Not all transactions are suitable for every investor. Investors should consult their advisor, to make sure that theplanned investment fits into their needs and preferences and that the involved risks are fully understood. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or publishedwithout the prior consent of Erste Group. Erste Group Bank AG confirms that it has approved any investment advertisements contained in this material. Erste GroupBank AG is regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK.

Please refer to www.erstegroup.com for the current list of specific disclosures and the breakdown of Erste Groups investment recommendations.

Documents

Jul 26 Erste Group Technician