JSOMA EXERCISE Gallant Sentry 30 April 2015 Segment #3 Version 4 Exercise REL- All

JSOMA EXERCISEGallant Sentry

30 April 2015

Segment #3

Version 4Exercise REL- All

JSOMA EXERCISE GALLANT SENTRY

Version 4Exercise REL- Control Group

SEGMENT 3: Demonstrations of Force

Timeline 2 43

Situation: Russian Joint Exercises in the Baltic Sea and along the Latvian and Estonian Borders. Emphasis on Marine Expeditionary Landings, River Crossings, Air Interdiction and Naval exercises; corresponds with increased cyber activity from uncertain sources.

NATO responds with Naval Response force, increased frequency of reconnaissance flights, and surveillance in the vicinity of Russian exercises.

Estonian alerts the Defense League for duration of exercises.

SIGACTS1. Near miss between Russian MIG and Estonian Air

passenger jet. 2. Estonian fishing vessel interdicted by Russian

Marines in Lake Peipsi. 3. Russian based hackers disrupt Latvian Cell

phone networks along border. 4. NATO Naval vessel detects/pursues Russian Sub

vic.Gulf of Riga 5. Latvian MIDD arrests Russian national in Riga;

accused of espionage.

So What?• Russian Exercises are a regular occurrence, • Estonia & NATO reducing reaction

1

3

4

2

Baltic SeaGulf of Finland

Gulf of Riga

Naval NRF

RU Exercise

RU Exercises

UN Call for Special Session

5

EE Defense League alerted

5

NATO NRFRU Naval Ex.

1


SEGMENT 3: Demonstrations of Force Situation: Russian official have announced that they will conduct Joint Exercises in the Baltic Sea and along the Latvian and Estonian Borders on D+3

According to OSINT, emphasis is on Marine Expeditionary Landings, River Crossings, Air Interdiction and Naval Exercises.

• Estonian media and public opinion are increasingly worried about the size and scope of Russian exercises.

• Ethnic Sentiment in Narva is increasingly pro-Russian. Recent poll suggests that 30% of population under 50 would like independent governance and 15% want secession to Russia.

• Growing Estonian Nationalism: The Blue Awakening has made calls for increased measures to defend Narva.

• Russian Media and popular culture has continuously covered the Russian responsibility to protect and defend ethnic-Russians.

• US Media coverage is limited, emphasizing the continued trouble in the global markets because of rising tensions.

• EU Media have mixed coverage, mostly focused on the provocative nature of the exercises and the need to resolve ethnic disputes in Narva quickly.

Baltic Sea

RU Planned Exercise

RU Planned Exercise

Gulf of Finland

Gulf of Riga

Exercise REL- All Version 1

Segment 3 Injects

• TV Report: Russia launches Joint Exercises in the Baltic Sea and along the Latvian and Estonian Borders.– Emphasis on Marine Expeditionary Landings, River Crossings, Air Interdiction and Naval exercises;

corresponds with increased cyber activity from uncertain sources.

• Print Report: Near miss between Russian MIG and Estonian Air passenger jet.– MIG flying without transponder, Estonian passengers harmed during evasive maneuver.

• Print Report: Estonian fishing vessel interdicted by Russian Marines in Lake Peipsi.– Estonian National harassed.

• Confidential Message (Not in Media yet): Russian based hackers (APT28 implicated) disrupt Estonian Cell phone networks along border. concerns of data hacking of diplomatic e-mail

– Loss of service for over 8 hours; leak from US officials implicates Russian sponsorship.– Concerns that e-voting code was compromised; investigation

• Print Report: NATO Naval vessel detects/pursues Russian Submarine from the Gulf of Riga to the Baltic Sea.– Russia denies the claim; pictures of submarine emerge.

• Confidential Message (Not in Media yet): Latvian intelligence service arrests Russian national; accused of espionage.

• TV Report: Russia launches Joint Exercises in the Baltic Sea and along the Latvian and Estonian Borders.


Version 4Exercise REL- Control Group

Russia Launches Joint Exercises

Dow Dropshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrYEUSoDHX0

Opening Western TV AnnouncementRussia has announced the launch of Joint military exercise to begin in the next 24 hours. Announcement comes as a surprise to the region who have been seeking to reduce tension. Emphasis is on Marine Expeditionary Landings, River Crossings, Air Interdiction, and Naval exercises. The announcement has spurred a freeze in European markets. The DOW has also reacted negatively, logging the largest decline in 2015.

Version 4Exercise REL- ALL


Near Miss between Russian MIG and Estonian Airliner

Airliner Returns after close callPicture taken seconds before evasive maneuver

Print Story

A Russian MIG35 harasses an Estonian Air passenger jet coming dangerously close. Estonian pilots claim that the MIG forced the airliner to descend rapidly, causing injuries to several passengers, two of which have been hospitalized. The incident happened just north of Tallinn.

Russian Official Commentary

During a routine training mission a Russian MIG35 mistakenly approached an Estonian Airliner. An investigation is ongoing.



Estonian Fishing Vessel Interdicted by Russian Marines

Russian Marines conducting exercises in Lake Peipsi, RU

Print Story

Two fishermen enjoying a day off were approached, searched and temporarily detained by Russian Marines in Lake Peipsi today. The reason for the detainment was yet unknown. The incident happened on the northern portion of the lake. The fishermen admitted to being close to the border. They also stated that the Marines had loaded weapons and were extremely aggressive. Russia has denied the claim and asserted that the fishermen had crossed the International border.

Estonian Fishermen Return from Dangerous Encounter with Russian Marines



Confidential Inject # 1• Confidential Message – Intelligence Report from CIA to NSC and DOD. • Topic: Russian-based hackers hack Latvian cell-phone network• DTG of Report: XXMay15• DTG of Event: XXMay15• Discussion: Russian-based hackers have successfully accessed, monitored and

disrupted Estonian cell phone networks along border. The activity has been ongoing for the past three months to varying levels of success. They have monitored voice and data activity for more than a week. Patterns of activity indicate a concerted effort by Russian-backed hacking group APT28. Initial analysis indicates that diplomatic e-mails and SMS messages were the primary target.

• Source: HUMINT (Source) and CYBINT/DNINT • Veracity: Event (Hacking) occurred: High Confidence;• APT28 involved: Moderate Confidence • Data hacking of diplomatic e-mail/SMS: Moderate Confidence.


Version 4Exercise REL- United States

NATO Naval Vessel Pursues Russian Submarine

NATO Ship Tracks Russian Sub Near the Gulf of Riga

Russian Submarine re-entering Baltic Sea ; Photo taken by NATO Helicopter crew.

Western Print Story

According to an unofficial report by a senior military official in a NATO nation, a NATO ship detected a Russian Submarine in the Gulf of Riga. After tracking it back to the area of Russian military exercises, NATO forces were able take a photo of the submarine emerging. Russia denies any claim that they had submarines near the Gulf of Riga. This report has spurned increasing demand for a NATO presence in Baltic States media establishments.



Confidential Inject # 2• Confidential Message 2 – Intelligence Report from Latvian NSC to Estonian NSC • Topic: Russian agent detained in Riga.• DTG of Report: XXMay15• DTG of Event: XXMay15• Discussion: The Russian agent is an Estonian national, ethnic-Russian. He is being

interrogated at this time. Initial reports indicate that he is leading a larger cell involved in cyber-espionage aimed at monitoring military communications and sabotage activities aimed at disabling critical infrastructure and LOC’s. He was caught with a data-card that, based upon reporting contains a sophisticated computer virus.

• Source: HUMINT (Interrogation) • Veracity: Event occurred: High Confidence; APT28 involved: Low-Moderate

Confidence• Distribution: Latvia, Estonia.


Version 4Exercise REL- Estonia

Transition - Russian Provocation Continues

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8naZuxkvw4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrYEUSoDHX0

Tensions Flare

Closing Western TV Announcement

In an unscheduled official announcement, President Putin has confirmed that Russia will conduct yet another round of military exercises in the border regions to ensure “Russia is prepared to protect and defend the Russian diaspora”. This represents a rapid-deployment, large-scale, joint operation along the borders of Estonia, Latvia and the International waters of Lithuania. They will occur 10km from the International Borders and result in multiple significant provocations and incidents that have enflamed regional tensions.





SEGMENT 3 to 4 Transition

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3

2

3

Baltic Sea

Situation: Russia conducts unexpected rapid-deployment, large-scale joint operation along the borders of Estonia, Latvia and the International waters of Lithuania. They occur 10km from the International Borders and result in multiple significant provocations and incidents that have enflamed regional tensions.

Events1. Russian joint exercise 10km east vic.

Narva, Estonia2. Russian joint exercise 10km east of vic.

Zilupe, Latvia3. Russian joint beach landing in

Kaliningrad, exercises 10km west of vic. Kybartai, Lithuania

4. Russian Naval exercise in Baltic Sea with Beach Landings

Fallout• UN Calls for a session to reduce tension• Significant Media coverage of events• International concerns affecting global

markets

Documents

JSOMA EXERCISE Gallant Sentry 30 April 2015 Segment #3 Version 4 Exercise REL- All