JRC Information Day - Romania

JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

European Early Warning Systems for Floods and Droughts

-How could Romania benefit?

Dr. Ad De Roo

European Commission, DG Joint Research CentreInstitute for Environment and Sustainability

Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit Weather Driven Natural Hazard Action

JRC Information Day - Romania


Before

What can be done to prevent flood losses?

ForecastingEarly warning

• Forest Fires

• Floods

• Droughts

• Storms

Damage assessment

Prevention

Climate change

Land use change

EU Solidarity Funds

Structural funds

PreparednessAwareness

Risk maps

EFAS

EFFIS

EDAS

After

Scenario studies

Damage estimates


European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

Objective: 3-10 days early warning for floods

More time to prepare for a crisis!

• flood probabilities > 3-10 days

• forecasting for entire river basins

• information exchange platform

Complementing Member States’ activities (NIHWM Romania)

• harmonized overview: crisis aid


•Pilot study (EFFS; 2000-2003)

•Identify customer needs (2003)

•Prototype development

•Testing (with NHS)

•Transfer of operational system to MS (2010)

EFAS: from research to operation

Romania:

NIHW


EFAS – how does it work?

RO: now!

Forecast products

Input data

Model systemLISFLOOD

(JRC)

Feedback – Improvement

Impact assessement

Agreed partners


EFAS USER INTERFACE –

Exploring EFAS results in different ways


EFAS user interface:

Overview maps – summarising flood threshold exceedance

spatially

deterministic probabilistic


EFAS user interface:

Point information


EFAS: SIMPLIFYING INFORMATION


EFAS: looking back in time - persistency


Communication to endusers


European Flood Alert System:Example of a successful flood alert 30 July 2004

Siret, Romania

BlackSea

HU

SK

RU

BG

CZ

A

Rainfallforecasted

Flood problemsforecasted

AdriaticSea

Alert send on 30 July;Floods confirmed by NIHWM on 3-4 August

Low flood risk

Medium flood risk

High flood risk

Extreme flood risk


EFAS results in 2003-6

Early Flood Alert Reports to partners (Danube)

Aug 2003 Siret (RO)Aug 2004 Siret (RO)Jul 2005 Danube (SK, HU) Aug 2005 Rhine and Danube (HU, DE, AT)Sep 2005 Po (It), Danube (2 BG, RO)Mar/Apr 2006 70 alert reports to Elbe+Danube (*)

2005: 9 out of 10 events were correctly forecasted

more than 3 days in advance!

* (2006 floods: EFAS agreement with RO not signed yet)


Romania: Extremely wet summer 2005!July 2005 August 2005

In Romania & Bulgaria: at places more than 300% more precipitation than the average of 90-04


EFAS MARS >HAL

05.2005 obshi200501c20

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

18

19

21


EFAS MARS >HAL

06.2005 obshi200501c20

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

18

19

21

BU again flooded


EFAS MARS >HAL

07.2005 obshi200501c20

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

18

19

21

Ro/Bu Danube floods


EFAS MARS >HAL

08.2005 obshi200501c20

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

18

19

21

August Danube floods


EFAS MARS >HAL

09.2005 obshi200501c20

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

18

19

21

RO/Bu floods- again

French floods – small scale, also well forecasted! In particular the second flood peak


EFAS FLOOD ALERTS in MARCH 2006

3

4

5

6

7

1,2

1 : Rhine (DE), 07-12th

2 : Rhine (DE), 23-31st

3 : Elbe&Morava (Cz), 25-31st

4 : Danube/Tisza (HU), 27-31st

5 : Elbe (DE), 28-31st

6 : Morava (SK), 29-31st

7 : Danube (BG), 31st

Flood Alert Reports

Informal Flood Watcha – Soane/Rhone (FR)

b – Oder (PL)

a

b


EFAS FLOOD ALERTS in April 2006

2

3,7

4

5

6

1

1 : Rhine (DE), 1st

2 : Elbe&Morava (Cz), 1-7th

3 : Danube/Tisza (HU), 1-7th

4 : Elbe (DE), 1-7th

5 : Morava (SK), 29-31st

6 : Danube (BG), 1-9th

7 : Tisza (HU), 11-17th

Flood Alert Reports

Informal Flood Watch


History at a point - from 20.03

Overview Maps Forecast starting

on 03.04.06

DWD

ECMWF

EPS>HAL

to 15.04

Danube - Tisza

1) Tisza – Danube 12 External EFAS IRFrom: 27.03To: 07.04

2) Tisza7 External EFAS IRFrom: 11.04To: 17.04



DWD

ECMWF

EPS>HAL

to 15.04

Danube - Morava


on 03.04.06

Morava - Danube Informal EFAS InfoFrom: 29.03 to 07.04


DWD

ECMWF

EPS>HAL

Danube tributariesin Romania


to 15.04Overview Maps Forecast starting

on 11.04.06



DWD

ECMWF

EPS>HAL

to 15.04

Main DanubeLower I


on 03.04.06

Danube 10 External EFAS IRFrom: 31.03To: 09.04



DWD

ECMWF

EPS>HAL

to 15.04

Main DanubeLower II


on 03.04.06

Danube 10 External EFAS IRFrom: 31.03To: 09.04


Latest EFAS forecast for Romania

EFAS: 9 May 12:00Nothing critical expected

River: Danube, section Arges - Ialom Basin: Danube,lower

Upstream Area: 677400

Date of this report: 2006050912

Forecast Day 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

DWD

ECMWF

EPS > HAL

EPS > SAL


European Drought Alert System Complementing Member States activities towards better preparedness for droughts

• forecasting, detection and monitoring of drought conditions

• integration of drought preparedness actions on international and regional scales


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20071.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

pF

Prahova Bacau Mures Arad

Trend: wetter soil conditions

2000 2002 2004 2006

Is Romania getting wetter ?

wet

dry


Conclusions• Need for transnational forecasting systems and collaborations for floods

• JRC-EFAS

• ICPDR

• Romania: fruitful cooperation with JRC

Outlook:

• Finalising EFAS for the Danube

• Impact of climate change on extremes

• Flood risk mapping


Information

http://natural-hazards.jrc.it

http://efas.jrc.it

Contacts:

[email protected]

Working together to be better prepared for natural disasters

http://natural-hazards.jrc.it/

http://efas.jrc.it/

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

JRC Information Day - Romania