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Jakarta Property Market Review First Quarter 2012
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Jones Lang LaSalle Research – Asia Pacific
ASIA PACIFIC
Dr Jane Murray Head of Research – Asia Pacific +852 2846 5274
GREATER CHINA HONG KONG
Marcos Chan Head of Research – Hong Kong & Macau +852 2846 5276
MACAU
Alvin Mak Assistant Manager
+853 2871 8822 [email protected]
QINGDAO
Winnie Ning Assistant Analyst +86 532 8379 5800
CHENGDU
Shelly Xie Senior Manager
+86 28 8665 1022
[email protected] TIANJIN
Stefanie Zou Senior Analyst +86 22 8319 2233
SHANGHAI
Michael Klibaner Head of Research – China & Shanghai
+86 21 6133 5707
[email protected] TAIPEI
Howie Wang Research Associate +886 2 8758 9886
NORTH ASIA JAPAN
Takeshi Akagi Head of Research – Japan +81 3 5501 9235
KOREA
Darren Krakowiak Head of Research and Consulting – Korea
+82 2 3704 8836
SOUTH EAST ASIA SINGAPORE
Dr Chua Yang Liang Head of Research – South East Asia & Singapore +65 6539 9814
INDONESIA
Anton Sitorus Head of Research – Indonesia
+62 21 2922 3888
THE PHILIPPINES
Claro Cordero Head of Research – Philipines
+63 2 729 5642 [email protected]
THAILAND
Dan Tantisunthorn Head of Research – Thailand
+66 2 902 0887
[email protected] VIETNAM
Nguyen Khoa Manager – Advisory Services
+84 8 3910 4946
MALAYSIA (IN ASSOCIATION WITH JONES LANG WOOTTON)
Malathi Thevendran Executive Director – Research
+60 3 2161 2522 [email protected]
WEST ASIA INDIA
Abhishek Kiran Gupta Head of Research – India
+91 22 6658 1000 [email protected]
AUSTRALIA
David Rees Head of Research – Australasia +61 2 9220 8514
NEW ZEALAND
Chris Dibble Researching and Consulting Manager +64 9 366 1666
3
Jakarta Property Market Review First Quarter 2012
TABLE OF CONTENTS
4 The Economy
5 Jakarta Office Market
CBD Office
Non-CBD Office
10 Jakarta Retail Market
Rental Shopping Mall
Strata-Title Trade Centre
14 Jakarta Residential Market
Rental Apartment
Strata-Title Condominium
18 Jakarta Hotel Market
Cover photo: Sudirman Corridor
Copyright © Jones Lang LaSalle 2012. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or copied without prior written permission from Jones Lang LaSalle. The information in this publication should be regarded
solely as a general guide. Whilst care has been taken in its preparation, no representation is made or responsibility accepted for the accuracy of the whole or any part
Property Research Paper
Jakarta Property Market Review First Quarter 2012
4
The Economy
Indonesia continued to exhibit optimism regarding its
economic fundamentals, with domestic consumption
and investment remaining solid and enabling Indonesia
to grow faster than its neighbours. Economic growth in
1Q12 is predicted at 6.5%.
Despite the global economic situation particularly with
the slow recovery in US and Euro zone, Indonesia`s
exports during the first three months of 2012 increased
to around USD 48.5 billion, representing a positive
growth of around 6.9% compared to the same period
last year.
Meanwhile, inflation continued, but at a decreasing
rate, largely as a result of lower food prices. Overall,
core inflation and administered price inflation
remained stable. By end-March, inflation stood at
about 3.9% y-o-y, a slight increase compared to the
previous quarter but much lower than in the same
period of 2011. Looking ahead, the Central Bank
predicted a return to a range of 4.5% %±1.0% in 2013.
On the other issue, the current key interest rate of 5.8%
was still consistent with inflationary pressure and
remained conducive to boosting economic growth. The
rupiah value was also relatively stable although under
some slight pressure. At end-1Q12, the rupiah was
IDR 9,180 to the US Dollar.
Following its sovereign credit rating upgrades at the
start of the year, Indonesia is set to enter the global
investment community and this is expected to bring
more fresh funds and investments to the country.
Going forward, domestic economic activity is expected
to remain strong even amidst the global economic
slowdown and the prolonged uncertainty in worldwide
financial markets. Economic expansion will continue
in 2Q12, although at a lower rate than in the first
quarter. Meanwhile, export growth is predicted to slow
down due to the weakening global economy and the
decrease in non-energy commodity prices. The
government plan regarding fuel subsidies will
temporarily lead to an increase in CPI inflation.
However, Bank Indonesia is confident that this will be
reduced in line with economic fundamentals after the
temporary impact of the plan comes to an end.
Rupiah Exchange Rate
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
Jan
-05
Ap
r-05
Jul-0
5
Okt-0
5
Des-0
5
Ap
r-06
Jul-0
6
Se
p-0
6
De
s-0
6
Mar-0
7
Ju
n-0
7
Se
p-0
7
De
s-0
7
Mar-0
8
Ju
n-0
8
Se
p-0
8
De
s-0
8
Mar-0
9
Ju
n-0
9
Se
p-0
9
De
s-0
9
Mar-1
0
Jun
-10
Se
p-1
0
Des-1
0
Mar-1
1
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
Des-1
1
Mar-1
2
Source: Bank Indonesia
Rupiah Exchange Rate (Rp/USD)
Dec 11 Mar 12
IDR/USD (e-o-p) 9,068 9,180
Inflation and Interest Rate
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
24%
Jan
-05
Ap
r-05
Jul-0
5
Oct-0
5
Dec-0
5
Ap
r-06
Jul-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Dec-0
6
Mar-0
7
Jun
-07
Se
p-0
7
Dec-0
7
Ma
r-08
Jun
-08
Se
p-0
8
Dec-0
8
Ma
r-09
Jun
-09
Se
p-0
9
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Jun
-10
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Source: BI & BPS
Inflation & BI Rate
Inflation 1-Month SBI
Dec 11 Mar 12
CPI % (y-o-y) 3.79 3.97
BI Rate % (e-o-p) 6.00 5.75
Stock Market
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan
-05
Ap
r-05
Jul-0
5
Oct-0
5
Jan
-06
Ap
r-06
Jul-0
6
Oct-0
6
Jan
-07
Ap
r-07
Jul-0
7
Oct-0
7
Jan
-08
Ap
r-08
Jul-0
8
Oct-0
8
Dec-0
8
Ap
r-09
Jul-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Jun
-10
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Source: JSX
JSX Composite & Property Index
Property Composite
Dec 11 Mar 12
Composite (e-o-p) 3,822 4,122
Property (e-o-p) 229 279
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
5
Jakarta Office Market
Supply
Cushioned by the positive performance of the national
economy, the Jakarta office market continued to
perform well in 1Q12. Around 5,500 sqm of new
office space was added to the CBD market during this
period with the completion of Parc 18 (Tower D) - a
project located in Sudirman Central Business District,
comprising five mid-rise towers with a total SGA of
around 22,500 sqm.
With this additional supply, the total office stock in
the CBD rose to around 4.2 million sqm.
In terms of supply distribution, the Sudirman-Thamrin
area, which is perceived as the most prestigious
location in the CBD, remains the most popular
location and dominates the market with around 60.0%
of the total stock, while Kuningan and Gatot Subroto
have around 28.2% and 11.8% respectively.
By segment, Grade B buildings have the largest share
at around 54.6%, followed by Grade A with about
37.8%, and the remaining 7.6% classified as grade C.
In the non-CBD area, the additional supply came from
the opening of Menara Satu Sentra Kelapa Gading in
North Jakarta, which added around 18,800 sqm of new
office space to the market. The building, which is
located in the center of Kelapa Gading boulevard, is
offered for lease as well as for sale.
As the result, total stock in the non-CBD rose to
around 1.6 million sqm by end-March.
Looking at supply distribution, South Jakarta
contributed the highest supply of office space in the
non-CBD, accounting for 50.4% of the total, with
Central Jakarta following with a 20.4% share, and
West and North Jakarta with 17.9% and 10.2%
respectively, and East Jakarta 1.1%.
Most of the stock in the non-CBD area is classified as
Grade C, which accounts for about 61.1% of the
overall stock, while the remainder is considered Grade
B. There are no buildings classified as Grade A in the
non-CBD area.
Combined, the existing office supply in Jakarta (CBD
and Non-CBD) totalled 5.8 million sqm by end-1Q12.
New supply in the CBD office market
came from the completion of Parc 18
Tower D, bringing an additional supply
of around 5,500 sqm to the market.
In the non-CBD area, around 18,800
sqm of new supply entered the market
from the completion of Menara Satu
Sentra Kelapa Gading in the North
Jakarta area.
CBD Office Supply Distribution (sqm)
Non-CBD Office Supply Distribution (sqm)
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
6
Demand
The office market continued to grow positively in
1Q12 with the vibrant business environment fuelling
demand. New enquiries were robust, particularly from
those businesses wanting to expand or relocate.
During the quarter, corporate activity was on the rise
supported by the attractive investment climate. The
quarterly figures showed demand for office space at a
healthy level of around 72,600 sqm from January-
March. This figure was slightly less than the 80,200
sqm recorded in 4Q11 due to the limited available
space, predominantly in good quality buildings.
Leasing activity remained upbeat during the review
quarter. Occupancy rates in the Grade A buildings
continued to climb and some even close to full
occupancy. With the limited available space in
premium buildings, tenants looked for other
alternatives. As the result, demand in Grade B
buildings expanded quite impressively. Banking,
mining, oil and gas, natural resources and service
businesses continued to be active in the market both
for new leases and expansions.
Notable deals in 1Q12 involved Qatar National Bank
taking about 5,500 sqm en-bloc space in Parc 18
Tower D, BII relocation from BII Plaza in Thamrin
area to Sentral Senayan III and taking up around 23
floors in its new premises, and several smaller tenants
leasing space in newer buildings such as Tempo Scan
Tower and Multivision Tower. Other deals included
Samudera Indonesia, which took-up around 800 sqm
space and BTPN which took-up approximately 400
sqm, both in Cyber 2. The strata-title Equity Tower
also had tenants starting to move in, most of them
small-to-medium in size. With the solid leasing
activity occurring in the review period, vacancy rates
fell to 9.3% from 10.9% in 4Q11.
The non-CBD market also showed positive demand
growth. Leasing activity improved in 1Q12, with a
majority of the transactions taking place in newly-
completed projects such as BCA in Menara Satu
Sentra Kelapa Gading and some small-to-medium
scale tenants taking strata-space in Grand Soho, Slipi.
Net absorption in the non-CBD area during 1Q12
surged to around 40,300 sqm compared to 35,500 sqm
in the previous quarter. Location wise, South Jakarta
accounted for the highest take-up in the quarter
followed by West Jakarta, which also performed well
in the last two quarters. With the market witnessing
higher levels of demand than additional supply, the
vacancy rate contracted to 15.5% from the 17.0%
registered in 4Q11.
The CBD market continued to enjoy
strong demand growth. Net absorption
in 1Q12 remained healthy at around
72,600 sqm.
Demand in the Non-CBD gradually
strengthened with het absorption rising
to 40,300 sqm and the vacancy rate
declining to around 15.5%.
CBD Office Cumulative Supply and
Occupancy
Non-CBD Office Cumulative Supply and Occupancy
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
7
Rent
In view of robust demand, low vacancy and limited
new supply, the Jakarta office market enjoyed solid
rental growth in 1Q12. Several landlords increased
their face rents quite aggressively, particularly for new
tenants taking small-to-medium size office space. For
large-scale and long-established tenants, landlords
were relatively more moderate in negotiating their
rental increments.
With growing occupancy and limited available space,
rental discounts and concessions were difficult to find
except in small average buildings. Only buildings with
low occupancy rate were still willing to negotiate on
rents and offering attractive rental packages for
prospective tenants requiring large office space areas.
By end-March, the average base rent in the CBD
picked up by approximately 5.9% q-o-q to IDR 99,960
per sqm per month. On a yearly basis, rents surged by
approximately 21.6% compared with the same quarter
a year ago. This is a significant growth compared to
the average rental growth of 5-10% per annum in the
last decade.
Service charges also increased although only around
1.5% q-o-q, to stand at approximately IDR 61,642 per
sqm per month. Overall, gross effective rents (base
rent plus service charge) rose by 4.2% q-o-q and
averaged IDR 161,598 per sqm per month.
Rents in the non-CBD also strengthened on the back
of strong demand and lower vacancy. The average
base effective rent climbed to IDR 69,095 per sqm per
month, while the service charge also increased to IDR
48,072 per sqm per month.
Combined, the current gross effective rents in this
sub-market totalled IDR 117,167 per sqm per month,
representing an increase of 3.1% from the previous
quarter.
Among the sub-markets in the non-CBD area, South
Jakarta still outstripped the others in terms of rents.
With its good accessibility and the fact that it is
generally perceived as the most prominent location for
office buildings after the golden triangle zone (i.e the
CBD), the TB Simatupang area in South Jakarta
continued to gain popularity particularly among
foreign and multinational companies looking for
alternative office locations outside the CBD. By end-
March, the average base rent stood at IDR 76,682 per
sqm per month with the service charge averaging IDR
46,659 per sqm per month.
Rents in the CBD rose by around 6% q-
o-q on the back of robust demand and
low vacancy. Base rents currently
averaged IDR 99,960 per sqm per
month with service charge rose to IDR
61,642 per sqm per month.
A similar trend also occurred in the
Non-CBD area where both base rents
and service charges rose, supported by
growing corporate expansion.
CBD Office Rupiah Rental Index (net effective base rent)
Non-CBD Office Rupiah Rental Index (net effective base rent)
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
8
Outlook
The Jakarta office market is expected to continue
growing positively in view of the optimism
surrounding the country's economy and the improved
business environment. Robust and steady demand
growth is expected to characterise the market in light
of the expectations that tenant expansions, relocations
and consolidations will continue to grow. Also, new
enquiries and pre-leases are numerous. With an
optimistic investment climate, demand from corporate
tenants to expand in the country is expected to grow
quite significantly in the years to come. In the
business sector, financial and energy companies along
with banking, natural resources, consumer-based
products and service companies are predicted to
remain active in the market, whether it is for new
office set-ups or further expansions. Call centre
operators are also identified as eyeing the opportunity
to enter the market and set up businesses in a growing
country.
In the CBD area, a number of major developments are
slated to enter the market in 2012. This will include
the AXA Tower at Kuningan City, World Trade
Center II and Ciputra World office tower. The H
Tower and four towers in Parc 18 are also expected to
start accepting tenants soon as they are currently in
their finishing stages and undergoing fitting-out. In
contrast, in 2013 the office market is expected to
receive only a small amount of new supply predicted
to come from three projects – The City Center of
Batavia, Prudential Annex and Menara Prima 2.
Overall, new supply by end-2013 is likely to total
approximately 467,400 sqm, with some portions of the
space already pre-committed.
On the demand side, the net take-up in the CBD area
is projected to reach around 400,000 sqm this year,
growing at the same pace as in 2011. Demand is
predicted to slow between 2013-2014 inline with
smaller additional supply during those periods, before
picking up again in 2015. As demand is forecast to
outpace supply over the next short to medium term,
the CBD market is likely to exhibit a healthy
performance with rising occupancy and a potentially
solid rental growth. The vacancy is expected to drop
to below 7-8% by year-end and likely to decline futher
to around 4-6% over the next two to three years.
In general, leasing transactions are predominantly
concentrated in newer buildings which are of
relatively better quality, have attractive rental terms
and have more amenities to attract new tenants.
However, some landlords from older buildings are
also benefitting from the current situation as they have
managed to obtain the attention of smaller companies
with limited expansion budgets. As demand for larger
floor plates has grown while at the same time some of
the space in high quality buildings has been taken up,
demand is likely to flow to Grade B buildings as well.
This is expected to drive their landlords to provide
better quality space and offer more attractive rental
packages.
In the non-CBD market, potential supply for 2012 is
expected to total around 118,300 sqm, which will be
generated from the completion of Sovereign Plaza,
Wisma Pondok Indah III, Grha 165, Chitatex Tower
and Tebet Green Office Tower. Further ahead,
107,500 sqm new office supply is scheduled to enter
the market in 2013, including Oleos 2, GKM Tower
and Dipo Business Center. Looking at the future
supply in the pipeline over the next two years, South
Jakarta will take the highest portion, accounting for
more than 80% of the total space which will be
located mostly in the TB Simatupang strip.
However, contrary to the anticipated trend in the CBD
market where demand should be sustained and grow
healthily, demand in the non-CBD area is predicted to
grow at a more moderate pace. It is expected that net
take-up to reach around 90,000-100,000 sqm per
annum within the next two years. The entry of
massive new supply is also likely to push the vacancy
rate upwards to around 17-18% by end-2013.
In terms of occupancy costs, rents in the upcoming
years are forecast to continue improving, given that
high demand, low vacancy and business expansion
should continue taking place. With landlords also
looking to benefit from the bullish market and
expecting higher capital gains, several prominent
projects are predicted to offer higher rates this year,
predominantly for new tenants taking small-to-
medium size office space.
In the CBD, rental growth is projected to remain in
double-digit figures over the next two years before
gradually compressing in 2014. Grade A buildings are
likely to exhibit a significant growth in rents
benefitting from the flight-to-quality trend in the
market and very tight available space.
In the non-CBD, rents are predicted to grow at a
moderate pace of around 5-10% per annum. However,
it is also noted that some areas in this sub-market are
likely to perform better than others. Compared to
other areas outside the CBD, TB Simatupang in South
Jakarta will still be perceived as the most prominent
location for corporate offices. It continues to be
preferred by high-profile tenants, particularly foreign
companies looking for alternative district. As such,
rents in the area are also expected to grow more
progessively.
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
9
Market Statistics – Office 1Q12
CBD Non-CBD
5,540 Quarterly Completions (sqm) 18,836
5,540 YTD Completions1 (sqm) 18,836
4,215,305 Total Stock (sqm) 1,592,331
72,612 Quarterly Net Absorption (sqm) 40,282
72,612 YTD Net Absorption (sqm) 40,282
90.7 Occupancy Rate (%) 84.5
393,404 Direct Vacancy (sqm) 246,419
99,955 Base Rent (IDR/sqm/mo) 69,095
61,642 Service Charge (IDR/sqm/mo) 48,072
161,598 Gross Rent2 (IDR/sqm/mo) 117,167
Up to 2014:
800,428 Proposed Stock (sqm)
Up to 2014:
444,220
1 Year-To-Date completion: additional stock from January to March 2012
2 Estimated achieved (effective) gross rent (including service charge) for typical tenancy lease (i.e. 125–500 sqm)
Office Glossary
The CBD sub-market is the commercial area bounded by Jl Sudirman-Thamrin, Jl Gatot Subroto and Jl HR
Rasuna Said (Kuningan).
The Non-CBD sub-market covers the commercial areas outside the CBD, which are classified by municipality, i.e.
Central Jakarta, South Jakarta, East Jakarta, West Jakarta and North Jakarta.
The net absorption (take-up) rate refers to the net cumulative increase in space occupied in a particular period.
Prime refers to a property that is rated most highly in terms of quality, location, facilities, etc.
Vacancy rate refers to the ratio of vacant space to the total stock (leasable area) available.
Gross rent refers to the total rental payable by tenants. This is equivalent to the sum of net rental plus outgoings.
Base rental is the minimum rental payable for an office space without taking into account any add-ons, such as
service charge and after-hours utility costs that make up the total lease package.
Service charge is the collective name for the cost of air-conditioning, other services and management charges
passed on to tenants.
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
10
Jakarta Retail Market
Supply
Benefitting from strong consumer spending, a
growing middle class and a shift in lifestyle, the retail
market continued to remain solid as reflected by
higher occupancy rates in most projects and positive
leasing activity.
At the beginning of 2012, the retail stock also grew
with the additional supply coming from one major
retail development with a total area of around 65,000
sqm. The project, namely Kemang Village shopping
mall, is a middle-grade shopping mall catering to the
South Jakarta area, and part of a prominent mixed-use
development. Thus, by end-March, the total stock of
leasable space stood at approximately 2.3 million sqm.
Looking at supply distribution, South Jakarta
maintained itself as the most prominent location for
shopping malls as it had the biggest share at around
41.5% of the total stock. North Jakarta and Central
Jakarta accounted for 21.8% and 18.7% of the total
supply, respectively. Meanwhile, the remaining
portion was distributed in West and East Jakarta, with
14.4% and 3.5% each. Despite having the largest
population, the retail supply in West and East Jakarta
is much smaller when compared to the other
municipalities. This has now been noticed by
developers and investors, encouraging them to tap into
these new areas as some other districts are seen to
posses potential risk from an over-supply situation.
On the strata front, the trade centre market remained
quiet as reflected by the lack of new launches. No
additional supply came on the market during the
review quarter. Thus, the total supply of strata-title
retail space in Jakarta remained at 1.5 million sqm.
Strata retail centres are highly concentrated in Central
Jakarta, which accounted for about 43.3% of the total
stock, followed by North Jakarta, accounting for
21.7%. The remaining portion is distributed
throughout the other areas: South Jakarta (13.4%),
West Jakarta (11.1%) and East Jakarta (10.5%).
Looking ahead, the retail market is expected to receive
a massive new supply of around 476,600 sqm, mostly
from proposed rental malls, over the next three years.
This future stock comprises 14 rental malls and one
strata retail development. Should all these projects be
completed, the total market stock is projected to reach
over 4.2 million sqm by 2014.
The retail market received additional
supply of around 65,000 sqm from the
completion of Kemang Village. Total
stock stood at around 2.3 million sqm.
The strata market, on the contrary,
remained subdued with no project
completion. Supply remained at around
1.5 million sqm.
Rental Retail Supply Distribution (by sub-market)
Strata Retail Supply Distribution (by sub-market)
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
11
Demand
Cushioned by robust domestic consumption, the retail
market continued to exhibit a positive performance in
1Q12 as reflected in the higher occupancy rates in
various projects. Demand grew healthily despite
declining slightly from the previous quarter’s figures.
Leasing activity from January-March was sustained as
retailers continued to expand and open new stores.
While F&B retailers and specialty stores continued to
generate most of the new demand, larger retailers also
continued to draw up expansion plans and explore the
market for good prospective locations. Between
January and March 2012, net take up in the rental
retail market totalled around 37,800 sqm, dominated
mainly by small-to-medium scale stores as large space
became hard to find in the existing projects.
The largest take up during the review quarter was seen
in the newly completed Kemang Village with its
anchor tenant – Hypermart – taking up 6,600 sqm
retail space. Other notable transactions included ACE
Hardware taking around 850 sqm space in Emporium
Pluit as well as Muji with its 700 sqm new space in
Taman Anggrek Mall and Pondok Indah Mall.
Waraku Holdings also took up a large space in Mall
Taman Anggrek, and the opening of several F&B
stores was seen in newer projects such as Epicentrum
Walk, Gandaria Main Street and Plaza Senayan.
The growing middle-class market continued to attract
foreign investors to the country. Foreign brand
retailers, aiming to capitalise on the growing market
potential were also identified as prospective tenants
for prime shopping malls. The pre-commitment rates
in future retail developments were also strong, as seen
in prominent projects located in strategic locations
such as Kota Kasablanka and Ciputra World. Overall
with the entry of new supply, vacancy rates moved
upward to 13.3% from 12.4% in 1Q12.
Meanwhile, the strata market continued to grow albeit
at a slower pace than the rental malls. Demand was
sourced mainly from tradiitonal mom-and-pop stores
and a number of chain retailer (mainly fastfood
restaurants). With no new supply, net absorption fell
to around 10,500 sqm in the strata market. Meanwhile,
the vacancy rate eased slightly to 32.3%.
Rents
In view of the positive leasing activity in the market
and the limited available space, the effective base rent
in Jakarta’s shopping malls increased marginally by
1.0% to IDR 422,844 per sqm per month. The service
charge also increased by around 2.0% q-o-q to IDR
Leasing activity in the retail market
remained healthy, yet net take-up slowed
to around 37,800 sqm during January
and March period given the limited
available space.
Rental Retail Cumulative Supply and
Occupancy
Strata Retail Cumulative Supply and
Occupancy
Prime Retail Rental Index (net effective base rent)
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
12
71,638 per sqm per month. This resulted in an
increase in gross effective rents in 1Q12 to IDR
494,482 per sqm per month.
The tight competition in the market also had an impact
on the current rental developments, which in some
cases, forced mall owners to offer discounts and
incentives to attract prospective tenants. Landlords
continued to seek ways to create new and unique
concepts for their premises in order to increase the
number of visitors which would in-turn encourage
more prominent retailers to take space.
Outlook
The retail market is expected to continue
strengthening. The positive performance of the
economy, the growing middle class and the change in
lifestyle which the country’s young is now
undergoing, are predicted to continue encouraging
retailers to capitalise on the country’s potential. A
number of shopping malls continued to receive
enquiries and several major proposed projects also
generated pre-commitments from prominent retailers.
Some retailers are expected to target various market
segments, including luxury brands with stores already
mushrooming in Jakarta, while others are looking for
space in prestigious malls. On top of this,
hypermarkets, department stores, entertainment
outlets, and fashion stores, are predicted to continue
being active in the market.
With big retailers and anchor tenants aggressively
introducing expansion plans, smaller retailers are also
actively looking for new space. Lifestyle retailers,
especially F&B and entertainment operators, are
expected to continue playing an important role as they
are seen as effective in attracting crowds. As a result
of potential solid demand, vacancy rates should fall to
around 9-11% in the next two or three years.
On the supply side, the market is slated to receive a
large number of new malls over the next few years.
Starting with Ancol Beach City and Kota Kasablanka,
which are scheduled to open around mid of this year
(in total, an additional stock of approximately 221,500
sqm new rental retail space is expected to be delivered
this year). A further additional supply of more than
121,000 sqm is predicted to enter the market in 2013.
It will then bring the total stock in the rental retail
market to around 2.7 million sqm.
Aligned with the positive demand, rental growth is
also expected to experience a gradual growth in the
short to medium term. Rents are projected to grow at
around 4-8% this year and a more gradual rental
upswing is expected to take place afterward.
In the strata market, only one project is expected to
complete in 2012, namely Cikini Gold Center. It will
bring approximately 15,400 sqm of new supply to the
market. No other developments are scheduled for
2013 and thereafter. Meanwhile, the vacancy is
predicted to continue moving downward to around 21-
24% by 2014 along with the prospects of improving
demand.
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
13
Market Statistics – Retail 1Q12
Shopping Malls - Lease Trade Centres – Strata-Title
65,000 Quarterly Completions (sqm) 0
65,000 YTD Completions1 (sqm) 0
2,318,501 Total Stock (sqm) 1,481,022
37,783 Quarterly Net Absorption (sqm) 10,529
37,783 YTD Net Absorption (sqm) 10,529
86.7 Occupancy Rate (%) 67.7
307,372 Direct Vacancy (sqm) 478,879
422,844 Base Rent (IDR/sqm/mo) N/A
71,638 Service Charge (IDR/sqm/mo) N/A
494,482 Gross Rent2 (IDR/sqm/mo) N/A
Up to 2014:
461,179 Proposed Stock (sqm)
Up to 2014:
15,400
1 Year-To-Date: additional stock from January to March 2012
2 Estimated achieved (effective) gross rent (including service charge) for typical specialty store located in a prime area
Retail Glossary
Rental shopping malls are shopping centres that are offered for lease by the landlord on a monthly basis. The
typical lease term for a specialty store is between one and three years.
Strata-title trade centres are shopping centres that are offered for sale by the developer. A trade centre mostly
consists of small kiosks that typically range from 4-20 sqm.
The net absorption (take-up) rate refers to the net cumulative increase in space occupied in a particular period.
Prime retail space refers to space in a mall that is located in prime areas (i.e. lobby level up to the first three
floors).
Vacancy rate is the ratio of vacant space to the total stock (leasable area) available.
Gross rental refers to the total rental payable by tenants. This is equivalent to the sum of net rental plus
outgoings.
Base rental is the minimum rental for a retail space without taking into account any add-ons, such as service
charges and after-hours utility costs that make up the total lease package.
Service charge is the collective name for the cost of air-conditioning and other services, and management
charges passed on to the tenant.
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
14
Jakarta Residential Market
Supply
As the economy posted solid growth, the residential
market in 1Q12 was also seen to be on an upward
trend. Developers continued to aggressively introduce
new projects targeting various market segments,
particularly in the condominium market.
Between January and March 2012, three new
condominium projects were launched in Jakarta, with
a total of approximately 1,000 units. Two of the
projects, Senopati Penthouse and The Cedar
Condominium at Ciputra World 2, cater to the upper-
market segment and are located in a prime area of
Jakarta, while the other, The Hive at Tamansari,
which is separated into condominium and condotel
portions, is categorised as being in the lower-middle
segment and located in East Jakarta.
Meanwhile, only one project was completed in 1Q12,
Cosmo Terrace, with 414 units lower-middle-grade
condominiums, which brought up the total supply of
strata condominiums to around 76,700 units.
By location, the CBD contributed the highest portion
of new supply during the review quarter, accounting
for 26.4% of the total stock. Outside the CBD, North
Jakarta dominated, with around 22.8% of the total
stock, while the remainder was distributed among
West and Central Jakarta (with 20.9% and 15.6%
each), South Jakarta (13.4%) and East Jakarta (0.9%).
By grade, the condominium supply is largely of
middle- and lower-middle-grade projects with 49.4%
and 43.8%, respectively with only 6.8% classified as
upper-class condominiums.
In the rental apartment market, we recorded no service
or purpose-built rental apartments being completed
throughout the quarter. This left total supply in the
market unchanged at approximately 7,814 units.
Location-wise, rental apartments were highly
concentrated in the CBD, representing around 42.7%
of the total stock. The other 57.3% was distributed in
South Jakarta (33.1%), Central Jakarta (9.2%), North
Jakarta (8.5%), West Jakarta (5.9%) and East Jakarta
(0.6%).
Based on building grade, most of these rental
apartments were classified as middle-grade buildings,
which represented 61.7% of the total supply, while
upper-middle- and lower-middle-grade buildings
accounted for 36.9% and 1.4%, respectively.
Three condominium projects were
launched during 1Q12. Meanwhile, only
one project was completed, adding a total
of 414 units to the existing stock.
On the rental apartment market, no new
completions were delivered to the market.
Total supply remained at 7,814 units.
Rental Apartment Annual Supply
(in # of units)
Strata Condominium Annual Supply (in # of units)
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
15
Demand
Triggered by the low interest rate environment, buying
demand in the condominium market continued to
remain positive during the January-March period.
Sales in proposed projects reached 2,039 units, a slight
decline from the previous quarter, yet remaining a
solid figure. The majority of recent sales took place in
projects located in the Non-CBD area, which
accounted for around 67.1% of the total sales booked
during the quarter.
By end-March, of the total of 27,133 condominium
units currently being developed and offered for sale,
about 65.5% or around 17,778 units were pre-
committed, leaving around 9,355 units available for
sale in Jakarta.
A quite similar trend also occurred in the rental
apartment market, where leasing demand softened
during 1Q12. Quarterly net absorption stood at 164
units, driven mostly by business travellers and
families from other provinces travelling to Jakarta.
Higher take-ups occurred mostly in newer projects
that offered better quality buildings and were
equipped with better facilities as well as modern
furnishings.
With no additional stock entering the rental apartment
market in this period, the vacancy rate fell to 17.5%
from 19.6% by end-2012.
Rental and Price
The gradual increase in sales and the optimism
towards the residential investment market were
considered to be the driving factors for the rising
condominium prices in Jakarta in this period. As some
developers adjusted their selling prices, the average
price of condominiums in Jakarta rose to around IDR
15.3 million per sqm, an increase of 3.2% q-o-q.
Similarly, rents in the apartment market also
increased, following the positive trend from the
previous quarter. Average effective rents rose to USD
15.1 per sqm per month while the service charge
stabilised at USD 3.39 per sqm. Nonetheless, most
landlords maintained their current rates and were
reluctant to increase them in order to keep current
tenants. Increasing rents were mostly found in newer
projects which enjoyed higher occupancy rates and
provided better quality buildings. Various concessions
were still offered, including special rates for longer
leases and flexible payment terms.
Sales in the condominium market in
Jakarta softened during 1Q12 to around
2,039 units.
Similar conditions were seen in the
rental apartment market which
experienced a declining net take-up of
around 164 units during this quarter.
Apartment Cumulative Supply and Occupancy
Condominium Cumulative Supply & Take-Up
Luxury Apartment Rental Index (net effective base rent)
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
16
Outlook
We continue to expect the residential market to grow
at a faster pace, given that the economy should also
maintain positive momentum for this year and next.
The low interest rate environment and a better
economic outlook are expected to generate more
buying demand from end-users. This will come
predominantly from young families or executives
working in the city who have been overwhelmed by
the traffic problems of the city and its surroundings.
On the development and investment side, the
increasing land price in Jakarta’s prime areas provides
the platform for property price appreciation and an
optimistic business environment. This, in turn, will
potentially lead to the creation of more leasing
demand and become the pull factor attracting
investors to buy more condominiums, particularly in
strategic locations such as within or near the CBD.
Furthermore, as the city’s lifestyle is changing with
many more people living in high rise buildings and as
higher incomes result in a growing middle-class
developers now have an opportunity to respond to the
needs of this middle-grade market segment.
Over the next few years, a large number of new
condominium developments are expected. Around
13,800 units are slated to enter the market this year,
coming from more than 30 projects in Jakarta, which
will be a record high should all projects complete on
time. Going forward, another 5,300 units will also
coming on stream in 2013 and around 8,000 units in
2014. Thus by end-2014, the total number of proposed
condominiums in Jakarta is projected to reach
approximately 27,000 units. The competition is
therefore likely to be strong, as each project tries to
generate more sales through attractive building
concepts and facilities.
Demand for strata condominiums is predicted to grow
positively in the future, with sales growth in 2012 is
seen to be around 10-15% higher than in 2011,
supported by, among others, the government’s efforts
to keep interest rates low and traffic jam in Jakarta
which will boost buying demand from end-users.
In the leasing market, enquiries for luxury rental
apartments are anticipated to improve gradually along
with the increase in corporate activity and improving
number of expatriates and business travellers to the
country. However, existing rental apartment projects
in Jakarta, which consist mostly of older
developments, are lacking the amenities that newer
condominium developments offer. This will likely
lead to the demand being concentrated in select
quality projects such as serviced apartments
(particularly those managed by international hotel
operators) located in or near the CBD.
On this basis, we expect net absorption to reach
around 300-350 units in 2012, before fall to around
200-250 units throughout end-2014. With that
scenario, the vacancy rate in the rental apartment
market is expected to hover around 22-25% per
annum over the next two to three years.
In terms of supply growth, seven apartment projects
are scheduled for completion by end-2012, including
The Grand Hyatt Residence Keraton, Residences at
Dharmawangsa Tower 2 and Apartment Plaza
Senayan Towers C and D. Furthermore, four more
projects will come on stream in 2013, three of them
part of the Ciputra World mixed-use development. So
far, no projects have been announced for 2014. The
proposed projects will bring in a total of more than
1,400 units upon their completion. Thus, the potential
supply in the Jakarta rental apartment market to reach
more than 9,000 units by end-2014.
Generally, apartment rents are unlikely to experience
significant changes over the next two to three years
due to competition to individually-owned
condominiums and luxury houses. To attract more
tenants and retain existing ones, landlords are likely to
continue giving various concessions in terms of
services, payment terms and length of lease. The
anticipated increment in total occupancy costs is likely
to be driven by a hike in utilities, which will impact on
service charges. More aggressive rental growth is
likely only in the longer term, when there is no more
significant supply to come on stream. At that time,
landlords should be able to increase occupancies and
raise their rental rates.
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
17
Market Statistics – Residential 1Q12
Apartments - Lease Condominiums – Strata-Title
0 Quarterly Completions (units) 414
0 YTD Completions1 (units) 414
7,814 Total Stock (units) 76,723
164 Quarterly Net Absorption (units) 2,039a
164 YTD Net Absorption (units) 2,039
82.5 Occupancy │ Sales Rate (%) 65.5c
1,370 Direct Vacancy │ Available (units) 9,355b
15.1 Base Rent (/sqm/mo) -
3.4 Service Charge (/sqm/mo) -
18.5 Gross Rent2 (/sqm/mo) -
- Price3 (/sqm) IDR 15,321,670
Up to 2014:
1,452 Proposed Stock (units)
Up to 2014:
27,133
1 Year-To-Date: additional stock from January to March 2012
2 Estimated achieved (effective) gross rental (including service charge) in luxury apartments (unfurnished)
3 Estimated achieved price of condominiums (all-grade average)
a New sales in the proposed projects from January to March 2012
b Total unsold units in the entire proposed projects
c The proportion of sold units to the entire proposed projects
Residential Glossary
Condominiums are a form of multi-storey dwelling comprising units that are offered for sale by the developer.
Each unit is owned by a different person and the common areas are owned jointly by all such individual owners.
Apartments are a type of accommodation (in Jakarta, they are typically in a high-rise residential building) that is
built purposely for rent.
Net absorption (take-up) rate for apartments refers to the net cumulative increase in the number of occupied units
over a particular period; for condominiums, it refers to the net sales in the quarter.
Vacancy rates for apartments refers to the ratio of vacant units to the total stock (leasable units) available; for
condominiums, it refers to the ratio of total unsold units to the total stock over a particular period.
Base rental for apartments refers to the minimum rental for an apartment unit without taking into account any
add-ons, such as service charges, that make up the total lease package.
Service charges for apartments refers to the collective name for the cost of public utilities and maintenance,
including management charges passed on to the tenant.
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
18
Jakarta Hotel Market
Trading Performance
Jakarta’s market-wide hotel trading performance has
seen a significant improvement in average daily rates
(ADR) and a corresponding increase in occupancy
from 2010 to 2011. In 2011, market-wide ADR
increased 14.0% year-on-year, achieving a record of
USD 90 and a healthy occupancy of 71.7%, a 3.8
percentage point increase from 2010.
As at year-to-date (YTD) February 2012, statistics
from STR Global continue to indicate an upward
trend in ADR and occupancy for upscale and mid-
scale hotels in Jakarta. This led to a robust growth in
revenue per available room (RevPAR) for the upscale
and mid-scale hotel sectors, which achieved year-on-
year increases of 22.3% and 19.8%, respectively, in
YTD February 2012.
The capital city of Indonesia continues to attract
predominantly corporate travellers, and hotel trading
performance has grown in tandem with strong
domestic demand. International visitor arrivals to
Jakarta have shown an increase of 11.1% to 2 million
visitors in 2011, according to the Central Statistics
Agency (BPS). Improved connectivity between
Jakarta and its neighbouring Asian countries was
made possible with the proliferation of the low-cost
carrier industry and the increase in flight frequencies
by these carriers and Indonesia’s national airline,
Garuda Indonesia. Garuda continues to expand its
network, opening new flight routes and increasing
flight frequencies between the Jakarta and several
Asia Pacific cities.
Future Hotel Supply
The upcoming hotel pipeline in Jakarta for the next
two to three years is dominated by economy and
mid-tier hotels. In 2012 and 2013, hotel supply is
anticipated to increase by 5.8% and 3.6%,
respectively. This includes a diverse mix of
internationally branded hotels, such as Ibis, Mercure,
Novotel, Holiday Inn and local hotel chains such as
Amaris and favehotel.
Other local chains looking to expand their presence
in Jakarta include Whiz hotels. Since land in the
central business district (CBD) is limited and costly,
the majority of the new hotels are not located in the
CBD but are being developed in other central
locations and in the southern part of Jakarta.
The market-wide ADR increased 14.0%
year-on-year, achieving a record of USD
90 and a healthy occupancy of 71.7%, a
3.8 percentage point increase from 2010.
Jakarta Market-wide Hotel Performance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Occ
upan
cy (
%)
AD
R/R
evP
AR
(U
SD
)
ADR RevPAR Occupancy (%)Source: STR Global
Jakarta Upscale Hotel Performance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Jan-12 Feb-12 YTD Feb2011
YTD Feb2012
Occ
upan
cy (
%)
AD
R/R
evP
AR
(U
SD
)
ADR RevPAR Occupancy (%)Source: STR Global
Jakarta Mid-scale Hotel Performance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
Jan-12 Feb-12 YTD Feb2011
YTD Feb2012
Occ
upan
cy (
%)
AD
R/R
evP
AR
(U
SD
)
ADR RevPAR Occupancy (%)Source: STR Global
Jakarta Property Market Review ● First Quarter 2012
19
Apart from the economic and mid-tier hotel sectors,
there are also several luxury hotels proposed and
under construction in the Jakarta CBD, which
includes the following hotel brands: W, Raffles, Alila
and Fairmont. In addition, a number of hotels are
being refurbished or re-branded, such as the Hotel
Nikko, which is being renovated into a Pullman. We
anticipate that this trend will continue to grow,
especially since new hotel districts such as Jalan
Simatupang in the south of Jakarta's CBD will
provide limited competition in the market.
Outlook
Moving forward, hotel trading performance in
Jakarta is likely to continue on the upward trend in
the short to medium term, assuming demand, and
domestic demand in particular, remains strong.
Infrastructural improvements and increases in flight
connectivity will also boost inbound tourism to
Jakarta and consequently benefit the hotel industry.
Market Wide Hotel
Market2011
Variance vs
2011
% Variance
over 2011
ADR (USD) 90 11 14.0%
Occupancy 71.7% 3.8pp 5.6%
RevPAR (USD) 65 11 20.3%
Jakarta Future Hotel Supply
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2012 2013 2014
Jakarta Future Hotel Supply – 2012 to 2014 (by location)
Central43%
South48%
West 0%
North2%
East7%
20
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