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News Flow
The largest Japanese refiner, JX Nippon Oil & Energy has
reported thatthe earthquake affected Kashima refinery will resume
crude processing
by this summer, but the more heavily affected Sendai refinery
will not
restart until 2012. Consequently, the company has sought to
reduce its
crude imports due to crude processing in April to about 1 mbd,
which
represents a 19% reduction versus the year prior.
Oil prices closed yesterday at their highest levels since
September 2008
with Brent and WTI at $117.4/bbl and $106.7/bbl
respectively.
Overnight trading has further strengthened oil prices as the
release ofeconomic data in China pointed to continued expansion of
the economy.
Moreover, reports of Libyan rebels withdrawing from positions,
as
Gaddafis forces seemingly have regained the upper hand, led to
an
increase in prices in early morning trade.
US employment data was released, showing another positive change
in
nonfarm payrolls this month, which increased by 216k, slightly
higher
Analysis
With two of its eight refineries (Sendai and Kashima) severely
damageddue to the earthquake, JXs reduction in imports comes as no
surprise
and confirms our view about lower refinery runs next month.
While it
has boosted run rates at its Negishi refinery since restarting
it last week,
the overall crude throughput will still be lower than originally
planned.
As we note in our Oil Markets Monthly, the effects of the
earthquake on
Japans ability to process crude will linger until 2012.
In our Oil Markets Monthly, we raised our Oil price forecast for
2Q2011
to $118/bbl on the basis of the issues in Libya looking larger
and moreprotracted than our, and the markets initial expectations.
The March
manufacturing PMI of China rose from Februarys level confirming
that
growth of manufacturing has picked up, after falling for the
past three
months.
Another US unemployment number below 9% was an indication that
job
rowth has been sustained in 2011 so far, and ositive minor
revisions
than expectations. The headline unemployment number for the
US
improved to 8.8%, again slightly better than expectations and
lower thanthe figure for February.
were issued to the figures released in February. Despite some
softer
economic figures released over the last month in housing,
manufacturing
activity and consumer confidence, job growth has been able to
build
upon the gains made so far in 2011. The ISM Manufacturing
figures due
out at 10 AM EST will provide another data point in the
evaluation of
the health of the US economy.
8/7/2019 JPM April 1 Brent
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June Brent (COM1) June WTI (CLM1) NYM WTI crude oil 321 crack
(M1)Crude time-spreads (M3 M6)
A.G Singapore VLCC Rate/Spot TapisSingapore gasoil M1 vs Murban
M1Singapore fuel oil M1 cracks vs Dubai
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
$/bbl
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
$/bbl CL 3 CL 6 CO3 CO6
0
510
15
20
25
30
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
$/bbl
Source: Bloomberg, Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities
Research
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-20
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
$/bbl
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
$/bbl
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%8%
9%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
8/7/2019 JPM April 1 Brent
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Price levels
In $/bbl (unless noted) 03/31/11
Daily
Chg. 03/24/11
Week
Chg. 03/03/11
Month
Chg.
Crudes
Nymex WTI 1st Month 106.72 2.45 105.60 1.12 101.91 4.81Nymex WTI
12th Month 107.54 1.87 106.03 1.51 104.91 2.63ICE Brent 1st Month
117.36 2.23 115.72 1.64 114.79 2.57ICE Brent 12 Month 114.36 2.08
112.92 1.44 113.26 1.10Dubai 1st Month Swap 109.64 1.30 109.20 0.44
109.70 -0.06OPEC Secretariat Crude Basket 111.42 1.24 110.81 0.61
110.48 0.94
Crude Spreads
Nymex WTI M1-M12 -0.82 0.58 -0.43 -0.39 -3.00 2.18ICE Brent
M1-M12 3.00 0.15 2.80 0.20 1.53 1.47
Source: Bloomberg, Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities
Research
Nymex WTI-ICE Brent Prompt -10.64 0.2 -10.12 -0. 2 -12.88
2.24
Brent-Dubai EFS/SWAP 6.55 0.05 6.40 0.15 6.15 0.40
Products
Nymex RBOB 1st Month (/gal) 310.76 4.36 304.48 6.28 302.62
8.14Nymex Heating Oil 1st Month (/gal 308.98 5.02 306.20 2.78
304.93 4.05ICE Gasoil (/gal) 317.35 4.79 313.76 3.60 306.65
10.71
Product Cracks
Nymex RBOB Crack (Prompt) 23.80 -0.33 22.53 1.27 25.19 -1.39
Nymex Heating Oil Crack (Prompt) 24.01 0.03 23.71 0.30 26.16
-2.16Nymex 3-2-1 Crack (Prompt) 23.87 -0.21 22.92 0.95 25.51
-1.64ICE Gasoil Crack (Prompt) 15.43 -0.35 15.92 -0.50 14.40
1.02
