JP. FavennecDirector - Centre for Economics and Management

IFP SchoolInstitut français du pétrole

Africa in the new oil geopolitics

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

PETROLEUM WORLDWIDE IN 2002

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Source : BP Statistical Review

* Nuclear and hydroelectricity

Electricity*

Gas

Oil

Coal

Mtoe

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

WORLD RESERVES (1.1.2003)

Source : BP Statistical Review, CEA, IFP / DSEP

COAL +LIGNITE

(109 toe)(1) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 80 $/kg(2) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 130 $/kg(3) Present technology (Pressurised Water Reactor)(4) Recoverable(5) R/P: Proven Reserves/Production ratio

NON-CONVENTIONAL

Proven

Yet to bediscovered

Enhancedrecovery

In place

LIQUIDHYDROCARBONS

NATURALGAS

URANIUM (3)

Probable

Possibles 2800

ProvenProven

22,7 (1)39,5 (2)

600

532

143

120

143

100

100

80

R/P = 41 (5)

R/P = 61

R/P = 204

R/P = 65

(4)

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

THE PLACE OF AFRICA IN THE WORLD OIL RESERVES

Source: BP Statistical Review

(Proven oil reserves as at 1st January 2003)

CIS7.5%

Indonesia0,5%

Oceania3.2%

Europe1.8%

North Africa3.9%

West Africa3.2%

Venezuela7.4%

TOTAL : 143 Gt

Canada0.7% USA

2.9%

Mexico1.2%

* includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Yemen

Middle East*64.9%

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

Février 2004

ESTIMATED PROVEN RESERVES AND PRODUCTIONFOR MAJOR AFRICAN OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES

Proven Reserves (Mb)

Production (Mb/d)

Libya 36 000

11 300Algeria

Egypt

Sudan

3 700

1,48

25 000Nigeria

563

1,86

2,12

5 400Angola

0,92

0,62

Gabon0,30

2 500

Congo

Equatorial Guinea

1 5000,26

1 1000,18

9000,18

Chad

0,12Source: BP Statistical Review, EIA, Oil & Gas Journal

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004Source : BP Stat. Review

CRUDE PRICE VARIATION

1861-1944: USA average, 1945-1985: Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura, 1986-2002: Brent Spot

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

(1875) Rockefeller

Period of control by

Rockefeller

(1911) Dissolutionof Standard Oil

(1928) Achnacarryagreement

(1960) Foundation of OPEC

(1973) Yom Kippur war

(1979) Iranianrevolution (1990)

Irak/Kuwait

war

$ 2002

$ current

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

OIL PRICES REFERENCES

Production costs $ 3 - 15 / bbl

Break even price for international oil companies $ 20 / bbl

Price to meet producing countries budget requirement $ 20 - 25 / bbl

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

90

135

165

165

1120125

80

290

80

MAIN OIL FLOWS IN 2000 (Mt)

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004Source: BP Statistical Review, Energy Information Administration

EVOLUTION OF AFRICA’S SHARE IN WORLD CRUDE OIL

PRODUCTION

Africa

Asia Pacific

Middle East

Europe & Eurasia

S. & Cent. America

North America

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1975 2000 2025

5047 b/d

(9,0 %)

7803 b/d

(10,5 %)

13690 b/d

(12,2 %)

Thousands barrels per day

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

USATotal imports = 9 646From Africa = 1 466

838

113

131

361

23

Nigeria

Algeria

Angola

Gabon

Congo

MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE USA IN 2003 (‘000 b/d)

Source: Energy Information Administration

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

EuropeanUnion

Total imports = 9 652From Africa = 1 806

325

Egypt

Angola

Gabon

Congo

MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2002

(‘000 b/d)

Source: European Commission

Algeria

Libya

74575

375

Nigeria Cameroo

n

164

122

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO ASIA IN 2002 (‘000 b/d)

OECDAsia Pacific(2)

Total imports = 6 738From Africa = 331

162

93 66

10 Angola

Gabon

Nigeria

Source: International Energy Agency, China OGP

Other Africa

(1) 2001 data(2) OECD Asia Pacific includes Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea

China(1)

Total imports = 1 209From Africa = 272

Sudan

76

100

96 Other Africa

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

SHARE OF HYDROCARBONS IN THE ECONOMY OF

AFRICAN COUNTRIES - 2002* -

AF021 - April 2004

ANGOLA

CAMEROON

CONGO

GABON

NIGERIA

EQUAT. GUINEA

90

60

94

81

95

90

45

5

67

73

40

86

Country % of GDP % of exports % of revenus

90

20

80

60

83

61

* EstimatesSource : ,CRS, World Bank, IMF, CIA World Factbook 2002, EIA

8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004

KEY PRODUCING ZONES

Gulf of Mexico

CaspianArea

West Africa3

Gb27 Gb

30 Gb