El gas no convencional en Euskadi y en el mundo

Jornada con la prensa

Xabier Garmendia

Viceconsejero de Industria y Energía

Vitoria-Gasteiz, 5 de Enero de 2012

GAS NO CONVENCIONAL VS GAS CONVENCIONAL

Geological definition: What Is Typical Unconventional Gas?

Shale gas is one form of unconventional gas extracted from source rocks such as shale, coal and sandstone and needs to be stimulated to flow at economic rates.

•Shale is a common form of fine-grained sedimentary rock laid down as mud in relatively calm seas or lakes.•Black shale is shale that was laid down in especially anoxic conditions on the floors of stagnant seas and is rich in organiccompounds derived from bacterial, plant and animal matter.•Conventional gas is gas that has migrated, usually from shale, to permeable reservoirs, predominantly sandstone.•Shale gas is gas that remains tightly trapped in shale and consists chiefly of methane, but with ethane, propane, butane and other organic compounds mixed in..•Coal-bed methane is gas trapped in coal seams that can be tapped by similar methods to those used for shale gas.•Tight sand gas is gas held in sandstone reservoirs that are unusually impermeable; it can be extracted by fracturing the rock.

CoilFRAC OperationUinta Coal Basin, Utah

USA

Explotación de un yacimiento de Shale Gas

THE EMERGING WORLD SHALE GAS MAP

• Significant Shale resources identified in the Atlantic Basin destination areas.• Large parts of traditional gas supply areas (Middle East, Russia) appear to not to have substantive shale

gas deposits

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) World Shale Gas Map

Map of shale gas potential assessed countries

Europe (in bcm)France 5 097Germany 226Nederland 481Norway 2 350UK 566Denmark 651Sweden 1 160Poland 5 295Turkey 424Ukraine 1 189Lithuania 113Others 538

Asia (in bcm)China 36 100

Indie 1 783

Indonesia 1444

South America (in bcm)

Venezuela 311

Columbia 538

Argentina 2191

Brazil 6399

Qiile 1812

Uruguay 594

Paraguay 1755

Bolivia 1359

North America (in bcm): USA 2441

Canada 1784

Mexico 1444

Source: own analysis, EIA, World Annual Outlook 2011,

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But why talk about gas? A new understanding of gas –Conventional gas vs. Unconventional gas understanding

• Biogenic Gas - Generated from the transformation of organic matter by tiny microorganisms - A small percentage of gas fields through-out the world are biogenic

• Thermogenic Gas - Generated as a result of heating processes - these types of fields are more abundant (e.g. - Most North Sea fields, most Russian fields, shale gas fields such as Barnett, Woodford, Fayetteville, Haynesville, Marcellus and others

Source: Robert A. Hefner III (2007), The Age of Energy Gases. Page 12-13; BNK presentation.

US HAS ESTABLISHED EARLY LEADERSHIP IN SHALE GAS

• The development of shale gas plays has become a “game changer” for the U.S. natural gas market.

• The proliferation of activity into new shale plays has increased dry shale gas production in the United States from 0.39 trillion cubic feet in 2000 to 4.80 trillion cubic feet in 2010, or 23 percent of U.S. dry gas production.

• Shale gas is the largest contributor to the projected growth in production, and by 2035 shale gas production accounts for 46 percent of U.S. natural gas production

Source: EIA Report on Shale Gas April 2011, Interviews and Team Analysis

GEOPOLITCAL IMPLICATIONS TOO ARE BECOMING PALPABLE

Production Consumption

Russia, bcm

- = Exports/ (Imports)

US, bcm

06 07 08 09 10

595 592

601

527

588

06 07 08 09 10

408

422

389414416

06 07 08 09 10

186170

185

138

174

06 07 08 09 10

524545

570 582611

06 07 08 09 10

614654

658646

683

06 07 08 09 10

90

108

88

64 72

• US gas production has overtaken Russian gas for first time in history in 2009 and for two consecutive years now.

• US gas transitioning from import dependency-to self sufficiency to potential surplus.

• This is attributable largely to Shale gas flows (now some 25% of US production)

• US exports of gas or shale expertise to other regions expected to have game changing consequences.

Source: BP Statistical Review 2011, Industry Literature and Team Analysis

Europe’s Unconventional Gas Resources

Numbers show ultimate recoveries to date Source: Statoil, Aurelian Oil & Gas PLC

Map of shale gas potential cost assessment

Source: HIS CERA

International Players in Poland

13

European resource play is attracting increasing number of IOCs to Poland

Source: Polish Ministry of Environment, 3 Legs Resources

Cross section from SW to NE Poland - middle area is the TTZ fault deformation zone (therefore the right side of the cross-section is north of the fault)

INVENTARIO DE RECURSOS DE CBM EN ESPAÑA (2004)

(6200 Mm3)

(30 000 Mm3)

(690 Mm3)

(2300 Mm3)

(2100 Mm3)

Evolución en el tiempo de Permisos de Hidrocarburos de 2005 - 2011

Mapas de Permisos de Hidrocarburos de 2005 - 2011

WELL DIVERSIFIED GAS IMPORTS IN SPAIN

410

42

44

2009 Demand bcm, 100% = 41.7

OtherResidential

Power generation

Industry

2009 Supplybcm

9,0

2,3

5,1

4,0

7,9

4,6

4,63,9

0,1

0,3

30,4

41,7

11,3

Ow

n pr

oduc

tion

Pip

elin

e im

ports

Alge

ria

Nor

way

LNG

impo

rts

Alge

ria

Egy

pt

Nig

eria

Qat

ar

Trin

idad

& T

obag

o

Oth

ers

Liby

aSource: Data Monitor, UNECE Spain and Team Analysis

LNG REGAS CAPACITY CONTINUES TO GROWbcm

11,8

3,6

1,81,8

1,3

2,5

3,6

1,3

2,5

10,6

57,8

7,0

7,0

7,8

15,8

11,8

?

Barcelona Bilbao Castagena Huelva Reganosa/ Mugardos

Sagunto El Musel Tenerife Total under construction

Gran CanariaTotal operational

Operational terminals Under construction

+

Source: IEA Spain; ENAGAS; Industry Journals

2000 20101982

Carbón1%

D.petróleo36%

Gas natural49%

Renovables12%

Imp. Eléctricas

2%

2020

Situación de partida de la CAPV. Demanda energética y evolución por sectoresDel análisis del consumo sectorial en 2010 se puede apreciar la

importante presencia del gas natural y la electricidad en la industria, sector residencial y servicios …

Consumo de energías por sectores Consumo sectorial de cada energía

… aunque en el plano negativo destaca el binomio transporte-derivados del petróleo y la muy baja implantación de las renovables en el sector terciario.… aunque en el plano negativo destaca el binomio transporte-derivados del

petróleo y la muy baja implantación de las renovables en el sector terciario.

3E2020: Previsiones energéticas Detalle de incremento de las energías renovables, en cuanto a nivel de aprovechamiento energético, uso en consumo final …

Renovables 2.010 2.020 %

Aprovechamiento Unidad 473 905 100%Biomasa ktep 407 678 75%Eólica ktep 26 137 15%Hidro ktep 36 39 4%Energía geotérmica ktep 1 17 2%Solar ktep 3 22 2%Energía marina ktep 0 13 1%

Consumo final de energía 100%Electricidad ktep 92 300 39%Calentamiento y refrigeración ktep 240 300 40%Renovables transporte ktep 101 160 21%Cuota en consumo final % 8% 14%

Capacidad instaladaHidro MW 171 181Eólica MW 153 783Solar Fotovoltaica MW 20 135Solar térmica miles m2 20 150Biomasa MW 79 185Energía Marina MW 0 60Geointercambio MWg 5 81Energía Geotermica MW 0 5

Producción eléctricaGeneración (GWh) 1.072 3.490

6% 16,5%Cuota suministro eléctrico (%)

17% EcoEuskadi 202020,8% PER 2011-2020

38,1% PER 2011-2020

35.750 Mw PER 2011-212.050 Mw PER 2011-2020

Escenarios EcoEuskadi202017% Cuota de energías renovables en

consumo final de energía