Jordan NEPCO EIO (18-01-15)

Expression of Interest January 18, 2015

World Bank (ESMAP)

Where Market Insights and Local Knowledge Drive the Bottom Line | Doha (974) 6608-1468 | www.eieadvisory.com | [email protected]

© EIEA, LLC. | License restrictions apply. Distribution to third parties requires prior written consent from EIEA LLC

Qatar: Petrochemical Sector Set for Radical Shift

1. Introduction

Economic Impact and Energy Advisory LLC (EIEA) is lead in the consortium expressing interest in this important project, with the support of Manaar Energy and key experts from the field. The project team [presented in section 4] intends to draw upon a pool of supplementary experts in the relevant business areas. On that basis and our understanding of your requirements, the consortium is confident that the experience and expertise will be sufficient to deliver a comprehensive assessment of NEPCO and readily implementable options for reform.

EIEA (eieadvisory.com) is a Qatar-based advisory firm, which focuses on services and products tailored to natural resource management, hydrocarbons across the value chain and the optimization of energy policies. It was formed in 2015 by an experienced team of energy sector and economic professionals, to address MENA regional needs. EIEA’s business focuses principally on energy and natural resource management advisory services, but also extends to public financial and fiscal management reform, mega-infrastructure development and economic investment appraisals, as well as private sector development policy guidance.

Manaar Energy Consulting & Project Management (manaarco.com) provides strategic and commercial advice on Exploration and Production (E&P), oil service and infrastructure projects where it uses rigorous quantitative analysis, combined with a sound grasp of high-level strategy and detailed insight into the key personalities and politics. The company is capable of providing a balanced practical business insight, functional industry expertise and extensive global experience that support energy businesses and operations in the MENA region. Manaar delivers real value through partnerships and enterprises combined deep industry knowledge, functional expertise and local relationships. Manaar has extensive and on-going experience (technical and commercial) in oil and gas advisory, renewable energy and power, and operational support for government entities, global financial institutions and international oil and gas majors.

2. Scope of Project

EIEA understands the significant practical and fiscal pressures Jordan has experienced [and will continues to do] in power generation and distribution as a result of shifts in the cost and availability of fuels, changes in demand driven by demographic volatility and economic developments, and changes in the availability of capital to develop new capacity.

There have been very significant and unanticipated changes in the six years since Vattenfall completed its 2009 study (“NEPCO Organisation Development: Now it’s time for change”). In particular, the reduction in available cheap gas from Egypt has required an expensive transition to burning oil; which in turn has led to a sharp deterioration in NEPCO’s public financial management position as it bears the significant additional costs while only gradually increasing end user electricity prices (with a goal of achieving cost recovery by the end of 2017).

Jordan Energy Sector Assessment

http://eieadvisory.com/

http://manaarco.com/

Page 2 І January 18, 2015

EOI: Jordan Energy Sector Assessment



Meanwhile, potential have emerged for pipeline supplies from Iraq, Israel and Gaza—all with complicated political dynamics associated, in addition to the importation of LNG. At the same time, the transmission infrastructure requires a capital injection for modernisation and expansion to take into account demographic changes (such as the influx of Syrian refugees), economic development needs and a more complicated range of power sources, including the presence of intermittency issues. There have also been developments regarding domestic supplies of energy in Jordan, including the withdrawal of British Petroleum from exploration at the Risha field and, more positively, progress with shale oil, renewables (such as Tafilaa Wind) and the selection of Rosatom to build the first nuclear power plant by 2024. In a complex and ever-changing context, NEPCO’s existing organizational structure is inadequate, and so there is an urgent need to restructure it to respond better to current and future challenges with a view to efficiently meeting the needs of consumers and businesses while ensuring fiscal sustainability and sound public financial management. Possible options for reform that we would investigate, include: A. The ‘Kahramaa’ route. Qatar’s public utility company is a state-owned entity that is

operated as a corporation. Strategic objectives that drive their overall operations encompass increased efficiency in operations, reduced losses through improved transmission infrastructure and enhanced purchasing agreements with key suppliers.

B. Slimming down to core functions. Divert responsibility of purchasing fuel for generating companies to another entity, which would allow increased focus on transforming NEPCO into a fully functioning transmission company and an electricity market operator.

C. Full privatization and separation of key functions. A commercially sustainable transmission

company could be established once the right incentives are put into place. Separately, a state regulatory function could be devolved to the Ministry of Energy or a dedicated new agency, which would be modelled after international best practice.

D. Public Private Partnership: A PPP model may be helpful to improve efficiency and secure

capital to upgrade and expand NEPCO’s transmission infrastructure. The PPP must be legalised, regulated and implemented in line with Jordan’s overall national development strategy objectives and capital investment program. A key advantage of this model is that service delivery is anchored in contracts, which would allow the state to refocus on policy and regulation.

3. Methodology & Approach

EIEA and Manaar will consult widely with stakeholders in Jordan’s energy sector, building on existing work done by Vattenfall and others, and drawing on the expertise of the team and their wider pool of contacts to assess NEPCO’s existing organisational structure and functions, within





the context of the broader energy sector and benchmarked against international best practice. We will propose a series of options for restructuring NEPCO in order to improve its financial and operational performance, boost the overall efficiency of the energy sector and enable NEPCO to transform into a capable and effective transmission company and electricity market operator. Drawing on our team’s expertise in change management and organisational reform, we will also suggested how these various restructuring options could be implemented, assess their impact on key stakeholders and outline the roles in the restructuring of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and the Energy and Mineral Regulatory Commission. Naturally, all efforts focussing on restructuring will involve comprehensive stakeholder engagement, strict adherence to public administration and institutional modernization process and procedures. We are most cognizant of the sensitivities associated with public sector reform, and the human capital aspects relating to organizational development, while also adhering to sectoral and industry standards.

4. The Proposed Team

The pedigree and seasoned team assembled, guarantees a broad range of relevant expertise and discipline-specific knowledge, with over 155 years of combined capability, including: electricity sector reform (Anders Houmoller, Mads Christensen, Robin Mills, Jaafar Altaie); understanding of Jordan’s energy, economic and political context (Justin Alexander, Ali Saffar) and public sector change management (Eugene McQuaid, Thaddeus Malesa). Additional expertise will be utilised as required from the team’s extensive network of contacts in Jordan and internationally.

I. Eugene McQuaid (Project Director, EIEA) will be the overall team leader as well the focal point on change management and organisational structure development.

II. Mads Christensen (Electricity Sector Expert) brings 35 years of energy sector experience, including reform of the electricity sector in Iraq.

III. Anders Houmoller (Electricity Sector Expert) brings 20 years of power experience, including reform of the power sector in Denmark and introducing its electricity exchange.

IV. Robin Mills (Technical Expert, Manaar Energy) brings considerable energy sector experience, including recent studies of the gas market in Jordan and Egypt. He is fluent in Arabic.

V. Justin Alexander (Technical Expert, EIEA) brings understanding of the Jordanian context and will provide macroeconomic analysis and coordinate the drafting of reports.

VI. Thaddeus Malesa (Deputy Project Director, EIEA) will be responsible for project management and will provide guidance on energy pricing.

VII. Jaafar Altaie (Technical Expert, Manaar Energy) brings considerable energy sector experience, with particular expertise on Iraq. He is fluent in Arabic.

VIII. Ali Saffar (Energy Economist) brings an experience of international best practice from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and extensive knowledge of Iraq’s energy sector as well as Jordan’s economy. He is fluent in Arabic.

Expression of Interest January 18, 2015

World Bank (ESMAP)



5. Annex A: Team Biographies

Name In brief Relevant Expertise for Project Education Qualifications Arabic

Eugene McQuaid (Executive Director, EIEA)

Macroeconomist and public sector management specialist with 25 years of experience

Qatar Government: Public sector institutional capacity building and organizational development, including establishing the regulatory and legislative framework for new state-owned enterprises.

Bangladesh: Ministry of Finance (for World Bank): Provision of regulatory and institutional advice on public-private partnerships (PPP) and articulating frameworks for strategic public investment planning (PIP) programs. Ministry of the Establishment: MATT2 program for institutional change management, reorganization and reform.

European Commission: PPP regulation and legislation for public sector procurement, including stakeholder engagement coupled with effective supply chain management. PPP-based feasibility studies, economic appraisals and impact assessments for natural resource and energy management projects (UK Treasury Green Book).

MA in Economic Science (University College Dublin)

Basic

Anders Houmoller (Electricity sector consultant)

CEO of power consulting company, 20 years of experience

Vast experience in counselling companies how to operate in the electricity and gas markets.

Introduced the Nordic power exchange ‘Nord Pool’ to Denmark, and further worked towards creating a single European electricity market (by designing the cross-border trading systems).

Operational utility management, such as how to operate jointly owned power stations

Carried out dozens of workshops (such as the GCCIA), including topics such as: establishing a market and transmission system operators, spot trading, and regulation of markets.

Oversaw how to technically integrate renewables into the national grid of Denmark

MsC in Science Physics (Aarhus University, Denmark)

None

Mads Christensen (Electricity sector consultant)

Freelance energy consultant, 35 years of experience

Extensive experience in energy sector reform across Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East (particularly Iraq), with particular expertise on EU/US donor funding for energy sector projects.

EU funded Framework Contract-project Study on the Energy Sector in Iraq (R&L, 2013)

EU funded project: Euro-Arab Mashreq Gas Market, Phase II (Human Dynamics, 2011)

US Government funded project in Iraq on Institutional capacity development project on management organisation and structure in the electricity sector (Parsons Brinckerhoff, 2007)

USAID funded project aimed at restructuring the energy sector in Iraq (BearingPoint, 2005)

USAID funded project “Support to the Public Utility Department to the restructuring of Kosovo’s power utility (KPMG, 2001)

MsC in Engineering (Technical University of Denmark)

None

Robin Mills (Head of Consulting, Manaar Energy)

Energy sector economist, 17 years’ experience including with Shell and the Dubai Supreme Council for Energy

Past Associate of the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES).

Federal Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey and Iranian gas markets at Manaar (2014): Analysis of each country’s liquid hydrocarbons and fuel and energy market situation and prices (current state and development prospects), identifying current and planned power plants (location and composition) and the key infrastructure for each power plant, analysis of the power generation sector (conventional and unconventional power sources), identify existing limitations imposed on power suppliers with respect to power grid delivery, forecast demand drivers, and power generation

MA and BA Geological Sciences (Cambridge)

Fluent





(including gas-fuelled) infrastructure: current generation capacity and capacity utilization by Power plants in 2009-2013, forecast of new power plants and capacity utilization up to 2025, identify existing gas intake limitations and intake gas quality requirements in the existing power plants, produce electric power demand/supply balance for 2009-2013 by consumption sectors and then forecast electric power demand/supply balance up to 2025 in view of the main demand drivers, conduct analysis of technical possibility to convert industrial consumers from diesel fuel, fuel oil to natural gas (including power generation sector), produce historic and forecasted electric power prices (2009 to 2035).

Egypt gas study (2014): Analysed the historical and current gas situation in Egypt, forecasted gas supply/demand and conducted a detailed study on the Egyptian gas subsidy and its impact on the market.

Jordanian gas and power study (2013): Overview of the regulatory structure for gas and electricity, overview of major gas pipelines and storage (existing and pending), location and composition of major power generation capacity (existing and potential), location and composition of major industrial gas users, electricity demand by consumer and power capacity forecast (more detail in Relevant Projects section).

Egyptian market study (2013): Analysis of physical infrastructure, gas pricing mechanisms for key customer segments, “net‐back” parameters, and prospects for subsidy reform. Also included an overview of key physical infrastructure facilitating access to gas markets (current and forecasted), forecasted power sector growth from 2015-2030 (power demand and supply by sector and consumer, forecasted power capacity growth and power generation by fuel type).

US technology company/UAE investor (confidential) (2012): Assessment of the UAE electricity and renewable energy market. The study assesses the UAE’s electricity market (structure, regulation, demand, generation mix, costs, etc.), including the current and future role of renewable energy. Accordingly, assess the economic case for an innovative new energy technology, and devise a strategy for introducing it to the market.

European power company (confidential) (2012): Study of Middle East electricity markets. The study assesses Middle East electricity markets, with particular focus on the UAE and Morocco. Determine the scope and cost-competitiveness of renewable energy, specifically solar PV and solar CSP, given current gas-fired generation and demand patterns.

Sunrise in the Desert report conjointly with PWC and the Middle East Solar Industry Association (2011): A study of competitiveness of solar PV power in the Middle East versus conventional generation. The scope included creating a large, detailed model of a generic Gulf electricity market (based on the UAE and Saudi Arabia), including generation mix and demand patterns (hourly throughout a year). Using this, determine the economic viability of solar PV power, and the optimal share of the generation mix.

Iraq/EU energy research centre pre-feasibility study (2011): A six month pre-feasibility study for a





joint EU-Iraq energy research centre in Iraq. The centre intended to build on Iraq-EU energy MoU and open up commercial cooperation. Engage with European and Iraqi stakeholders to define the scope for a joint EU-Iraq energy research centre.

Global Carbon Capture & Storage Institute (2011): Assessments of carbon capture opportunities in the MENA. Landmark study of the prospects and policies for carbon capture and storage in the Middle East-North Africa region.

Justin Alexander (Expert, EIEA)

MENA economist with 15 years of experience, including in Jordan

Economic analyst of Jordan, including numerous reports for the Economist Intelligence Unit and Jordan Economic Insight 2012, a major publication for QNB based on dozens of interviews with officials and business leaders in Jordan, including in the energy sector.

Extensive experience in Jordan including two six month periods living in Amman in 2001 and 2006.

Strong understanding of the political, economic and energy sector dynamics in the region, including Jordan’s neighbours.

Experience of fiscal management and energy sector subsidies from working for the Qatar Ministry of Finance.

MSc in Development Studies (Birkbeck, London) and MA in Physics (Oxford)

Some

Thaddeus Malesa (Executive Director, EIEA

Economist and public sector management specialist with 15 years of experience

5 years consulting on the Energy Sector for PFC Energy, establishing its offices in the Middle East, including economic modelling of the interlinkages between the energy sector and the wider economy.

5 years of experience with the World Bank, including in the Europe Central Asia Energy Department where he worked on the Baltic State Electricity Project.

Experience of public sector change management and institutional reform programs, working with the Qatar Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics.

Experience of spinning off state-established entities into independent companies while with the Dubai Development & Investment Authority.

Oversee implementation of Qatar’s National Development Strategy 2011-16 in the natural resource management area, including the target of “establishing an independent power and water regulator” and “phasing in user charges for power, water and fuel that better reflect the full economic costs of production.”

International Economics (MA Johns Hopkins, BA Georgetown)

Basic

Jaafar Altaie (Managing Director, Manaar)

Energy sector economist and strategist, 22 years of experience

Federal Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey and Iranian gas markets at Manaar (2014): Analysis of the Federal Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan Gas, Turkey and Iran liquid hydrocarbons and fuel and energy market situation and prices (current state and development prospects), identifying current and planned power plants (location and composition) in each country mentioned and the key infrastructure for each power plant (current and planned)

Egyptian market study (2013) (with Robin Mills, see above for details).

Egypt gas study (2014) (with Robin Mills, see above for details).

Jordanian gas and power study (2013) (with Robin Mills, see above for details).

Senior Economic Advisor, Ministry of Oil, Iraq (2004‐2007)

BA Economics (LSE), Diploma in Development Economics (Sussex)

Fluent

http://www.qnb.com/cs/Satellite?blobcol=urldata&blobheader=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobwhere=1355496374351&ssbinary=true





Past Associate of the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES)

Ali al-Saffar (Analyst, IEA)

Economist and Energy Sector specialist, 7 years of experience

3 years’ experience at the IEA Directorate of Global Energy Economics, including writing the Iraq Energy Outlook 2020 report (2013) and parts of the World Energy Outlook.

3 years’ experience as a MENA economic analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, covering countries including Jordan.

BA in Economics (LSE), MSc Development (SOAS)

Fluent

6. Samples of relevant projects

Details of the Jordanian gas and power study (2013) by Manaar Energy

Jordan gas and power study

Market Design

&

Regulatory

Structure

Overview of the regulatory structure for gas & electricity, including:

o Identifying key government agencies and their responsibilities.

o Identifying key gas and electricity policies, in particular where they influence / define:

Regulated vs. unregulated gas customer sectors;

Monopoly or state owned entities in the gas and electricity value chains.

Increasing role for gas in the energy mix;

Natural gas pricing and contracting structures; and

Key infrastructure access and expansion of gas infrastructure;

Latest view as to potential material changes to key gas / electricity policies.

Overview of key

physical

infrastructure

facilitating access to

gas markets and gas

/ power sector

growth: 2015 - 2030

Overview of major gas pipelines & storage (existing & pending):

o Summary of gas transportation options and tariff structures.

o Summary of gas storage infrastructure and access.

o Status of gas distribution rings / planned rings.

o Insights on actual / potential connection to material regional demand centres and export pipelines.

Location and composition of major power generation capacity (existing & potential):

o Differentiate state owned assets vs. private sector.

o Identifying existing fossil power stations capable of fuel switching.

o Outline expected commissioning & decommissioning schedules.

o Summary of electricity transmission capability to regional demand centres.





o Identify plans & competitiveness of alternative generation options (coal, oil, renewables)

Location and composition of major industrial gas users (existing & potential):

o Differentiate state owned assets vs. private sector initiatives.

o Differentiate gas for power vs. gas for industrial application / feedgas use.

Overview of relevant LNG receiving terminals (existing/planned) in so far as they would compete with pipeline gas supplies.

Competition and

Supply Overview

2015 - 2030

Number of competitive suppliers.

Summary of competitors’ uncommitted reserves and capacity.

Identify reserves growth / exploration / unconventional gas potential

Summary of key existing long term supply contracts with incumbent customer set.

Summary of “typical” gas supply contracting structures with large users (i.e. contract durations, pricing structures, regulation / review of prices)

Major pipeline import options (e.g. Iraq-Jordan, Egypt-Jordan)

Demand

Information

and

Specific Customer

Analysis

Macro overview of existing natural gas demand and growth scenarios.

Breakdown demand and growth scenarios for key segments / high grade / large volume customers, including insights on:

o Gas application in power generation.

Review net energy and electricity demand growth (incumbents and IPPs).

Review fuel switching scenarios: (i) diesel and fuel oil to natural gas; (ii) coal to natural gas.

o Overview of large scale gas brokers / aggregators.

o Review new gas demand creation in industry, manufacturing and transportation (including insights on demand sensitivity to price).

o Feedstock gas opportunities.

For the material customer segments provide an overview of:

o The number of customers

o Profile their annual demand profile / growth scenarios

o Profile whether gas application is base-load or has swing requirements (e.g. seasonal demand, weekend vs. weekday; daily or operational swing requirements)

Gas Pricing Analysis Summary of key factors framing natural gas pricing for the key customer segments.

o Differentiate regulated and unregulated market sectors.

Summary of typical gas pricing formulae structures and indexation mechanisms.

Provide insights on “commodity” vs. “capacity” elements of gas pricing.

Provide insights on the “bearable gas price” - i.e. differentiate where gas is being applied in existing assets (sunk capital costs) vs. new projects / internationally





mobile projects.

Where relevant identify “net-back” parameters e.g. transport tariffs.

Where relevant identify costs and taxes which materially influence prices / competiveness

Identify consumer subsidies and prospects for reduction / reform.

Politics Identify key political factors which impact gas trade and other energy cooperation between the three countries considered

Note critical infrastructure security issues

Identify political trends which may favour / prevent abolition of subsidies

Note political issues affecting gas export / utilisation choices

7. Annex B: Trend Analysis





Figure 1. Electricty Production by Energy Type in Jordan from Manaar's Jordan gas study

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Electricity production by energy type

Renewable sources

Oil sources (% of total)

Natural gas sources (% of total)

Hydroelectric sources (% of total)





Figure 2. Jordan gas demand and sources. Mid-case economic growth; with BP Risha, but no Egyptian or Iraqi gas from Manaar’s Jordan gas study

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su

pp

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/day

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Iraq imports

Israel imports

LNG imports

Egypt imports

Risha (BP)

Risha (NPC)

Industrial

Transport (CNG)

Residential gas

Substitution of oil-fired power

Gas-fired power





Figure 3. Forecast Jordan power generation. Mid-case economic growth; one oil shale and one nuclear plant from Manaar’s Jordan gas study

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) Forecast of Jordan's power generation

Egypt imports Nuclear-1

HTG oil shale Eesti oil shale

New biomass New solar

New wind Al Kamsha wind

Maan wind Al Fujeij wind

Haraneh solar Quweirah solar

Maan solar Azraq solar

Hofa wind Ibrahimieh wind

Al Rosaifa biogas New gas

Others (industrial) KEPCO IPP

AES IPP King Talal Dam

Al Qatraneh Total SEPCO

Aqaba Aqaba Central

Remote Villages Karak

Amman South Marka

Risha Rehab

Hussein Thermal Aqaba Thermal





Figure 4 Power generation per plant type and locality in Egypt, from Manaar's Egypt market study

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Tota

l gen

erat

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Power generation per plant type and locality in Egypt

New solar PV

New solar thermal

New wind

New hydro

New gas

Total Upper Egypt

Total West Delta

Total Middle Delta

Total East Delta

Total Cairo

Total BOOTs

Total hydro





Figure 5 Gas supply build-up, per field in Egypt, from Manaar's Egypt market study

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/day

) Gas supply build-up, per field in Egypt Domestic unconventional

Domestic new discoveries

Domestic technical reserves

North Alexandria

East Delta Deep

North Idku

Alam El Shawish West

ONS

El Mansoura

West Delta Deep Marine

Rosetta

Temsah

Ras El Barr (Ha'py)

Port Fouad

Obaiyed

Khalda

Abu Qir

Baltim

Abu Madi

Nidoco

Badr El Din

Others

Gas Matters - BAU

Gas Matters - no investment





Figure 6 . Iraq Generation capacity Chart from Manaar’s Iraq gas and power study (also conducted similar forecast for Turkey, Iran and Iraqi Kurdistan on the same project)

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acit

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W)

Iraq generation capacity North - New solar

North - New wind

Middle - New solar

Middle - New wind

South - New solar

South - New wind

North - New combined cycle - gas

Middle - New combined cycle - gas

South - New combined cycle - gas

North - New steam turbine - HFO

Middle - New steam turbine - HFO

South - New steam turbine - HFO

South - New gas turbine - HFO

South - New gas turbine - gas

South - New steam turbine - gas

South - Hydro capacity

South - Diesel capacity

South - Combined cycle

South - Gas turbine capacity - crude

South - Gas turbine capacity - diesel

South - Gas turbine capacity - HFO

South - Gas turbine capacity - gas

South - Steam turbine capacity - crude oil

South - Steam turbine capacity - HFO

South - Steam turbine capacity - gas

Middle - New gas turbine - gas

Middle - New steam turbine - gas

Middle - Hydro capacity

Middle - Diesel capacity

Middle - Combined cycle

Middle - Gas turbine capacity - crude

Middle - Gas turbine capacity - diesel

Middle - Gas turbine capacity - HFO

Middle - Gas turbine capacity - gas

Middle - Steam turbine capacity - crude oil

Middle - Steam turbine capacity - HFO

Middle - Steam turbine capacity - gas

North - New gas turbines - HFO

North - New gas turbines - gas

North - New steam turbine - gas

North - Hydro capacity

North - Diesel capacity

North - Combined cycle

North - Gas turbine capacity - crude

North - Gas turbine capacity - diesel

North - Gas turbine capacity - HFO

North - Gas turbine capacity - gas

North - Steam turbine capacity - crude oil

North - Steam turbine capacity - HFO

North - Steam turbine capacity - gas

Demand





Figure 7 Iraqi Kurdistan Domestic Electricity Prices from Manaar’s Iraqi Kurdistan gas and power study (also conducted similar forecast for Turkey, Iran and Federal Iraq on the same project)

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$/k

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Iraqi Kurdistan Domestic Electricity Prices

KRG residential electricity KRG Industrial electricity Generation costs





Based on prevailing market rates, the levelized cost of electricity from solar PV in typical MENA climates is estimated as 15.4 US¢/kWh at an installed capital cost of $2.50/W. The price ranges from 12.6 US¢/kWh for a capital cost of $2/W (utility-scale projects) to 18.1 US¢/kWh at $3/W (roof-top installations). Solar is cheaper than an open cycle peaking unit at gas prices above $5/MMBtu (equivalent to oil at around $30/barrel4 ) but requires $17/MMBtu to be competitive with baseload combined-cycle power -- around current LNG prices.

Figure 8 Competitiveness of solar power versus conventional power generation at varying fuel prices from Manaar study 2012, “Sunrise in the Desert”, on economic viability of solar power in the Gulf

Documents

Jordan NEPCO EIO (18-01-15)