Jordan, et al., 2011; http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371

Forum on the L'Aquila verdict Friday 10/02/2012 1-2pm - room ISTB4-240

School of Earth and Space ExplorationArizona State University

ppt collection by JR Arrowsmith

Accumulated linksOperational Earthquake Forecasting – State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization - ICEF report http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371

News reports:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/10/20121022151851442575.html http://www.livescience.com/24173-laquila-earthquake-manslaughter-verdict-condemned.html Tom Jordan gave a very good interview on NPR: http://www.npr.org/2012/10/23/163499530/italian-seismologists-convicted-of-manslaughter Time Magazine: http://world.time.com/2012/10/24/the-aquila-earthquake-verdict-where-the-guilt-may-really-lie/

Scientific journal and blog commentary:Nature: http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html Trembling Earth blog: http://tremblingearth.wordpress.com/2012/10/23/conviction-of-italian-seismologists-a-nuanced-warning/ Highly Allochthonous blog: http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2009/04/foreshocks-and-aftershocks-of-the-italian-earthquake/

Statements:Joint statement from the British Royal Society and National Academy of Sciences: http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/news/2012_10_25_Joint_Statement_NAS-RS_Italian_Earthquake_Scientists.html AAAS had issued a statement earlier in the trial - and they may be considering an update: http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2010/media/0630italy_letter.pdf AGU, GSA and EGU have released statements: http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2012/2012-46.shtml http://www.geosociety.org/news/pr/12-76.htm http://www.egu.eu/inside-egu/divisions-and-present-officers/division-seismology/home.html

Some papers and reports

Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011http://www.agu.org/journals/jb/jb1112/2011JB008352/2011JB008352.pdfEERI report on the earthquake: https://www.eeri.org/site/images/lfe/pdf/laquila-eq-report.pdf…there are many more

The seismicity

Felt reports of L’Aquila main shock

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Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011

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Spatial and temporal evolution of the foreshock sequence

Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011

Serial cross sections through the seismicity show activation of mostly west dipping Appenine/Abruzzo faults

probabilistic seismic hazard map for Italy: ground acceleration with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

Time independent earthquake forecast for Italy based on instrumental and historic seismicity and paleoseismology.

Jordan, et al., 2011; http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371

Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting

Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC http://www.seismosoc.org/italy/

OEF (10:20-11:50):-Continual updating of authoritative information about future occurrence of potentially damaging earthquakes-The officially sanctioned dissemination of this information to enhance earthquake preparedness in threatened communities

Earthquake probabilities-Probabilities of large earthquakes (even in areas of high seismicity) are low <<1%/day-High gain-low probability situations (100-1000x)

Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting

Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC http://www.seismosoc.org/italy/

L’Aquila (12:40-14:20)-probability of a false alarm > failure to predict (100x)-seismic activity had increased probability of a large event by ~100x-Scientists snookered into addressing a simple yes-no question (“will we be hit by a large earthquake?”)-Reassuring statements widely interpreted to be an anti-alarm

Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting

Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC http://www.seismosoc.org/italy/

Recommendations (14:20-16:49)-Separate role of scientific advisors (objective information about natural hazards) from that of civil decision makers (weigh benefits of protective actions with costs of false alarms, other political considerations)-Use probabilistic rather than deterministic statements in characterizing short term changes in seismic hazards (e.g. meteorological community)

Membership:

Dr. Terry Tullis, ChairBrown University

Dr. Ramon ArrowsmithArizona State University

Dr. Nick BeelerUSGS, Menlo Park, California

Dr. David JacksonUniversity of California, Los Angeles

Dr. Bruce ShawColumbia University

Dr. William EllsworthUSGS, Menlo Park, California

Dr. Evelyn RoeloffsUSGS, Vancouver, Washington

Dr. John VidaleUniversity of Washington

Dr. Andrew Michael USGS, Menlo Park, California

Dr. Allan Rubin Princeton University

Roland Burgmann University of California, Berkeley

Dr. Bill Leith, Co-chair, ex officio Senior Science Advisor for Earthquake and Geologic Hazardsand Coordinator, Earthquake Hazards ProgramUSGS, Reston, Virginia

Dr. Michael Blanpied, Executive SecretaryAssociate Coordinator, Earthquake Hazards ProgramUSGS, Reston, Virginia

Also, CEPEC: California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council

statement regarding California’s Immunity from Liability for Earthquake Predictions

955.1. The science of earthquake prediction is developing rapidly and, although still largely in a research stage, such predictions are now being initiated and are certain to continue intothe future… It is the intent of this legislation to ensure that such actions are taken in the public interest by government agencies acting in a responsible manner without fear of consequent financial liabilities.

-from John Parrish, California State Geologist

statement regarding California’s Immunity from Liability for Earthquake Predictions

The state and its agencies and employees shall not be liable for any injury resulting from the issuance or non-issuance of a warning pursuant to this subdivision or for any acts or omissions in fact gathering, evaluation, or other activities leading up to the issuance or non-issuance of a warning.

-from John Parrish, California State Geologist