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Joost de Laat (Phd)Human Development Europe
and Central AsiaThe World Bank
EURoma MeetingBudapest, HungaryStructural Funds: Investing in Roma11 November 2011
Step 1: Identify vulnerable (Roma) communities
Step 2: Identify critical gaps in human development outcomes
Step 3: Institutionalize evaluation to learn which type of interventions are likely to have the highest impacts on specific outcomes
Step 4: Ensure that inclusion programs clearly define the specific outcomes they hope to impact
What are poverty maps? Going from high level NUTS to small LAU areas
Combining 2011 census information with EU-SILC survey information as a (potential) way to poverty mapping
Bulgaria poverty mapping case study
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/nuts_nomenclature/principles_characteristics
Example: Nuts 3 in Bulgaria represent 28 districts
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/nuts_nomenclature/local_administrative_units
LAU 1 level (‘nuts 4’) – 262 municipalities (2005)
Source: “EU legislation on the 2011 Population and Housing Censuses” (Eurostat 2011, ISSN 1977-0375)
In summary: Household survey like EU-SILC have breadth
of indicators, but sample sizes too small to be representative for local area units
Population censuses do allow small areas calculations but frequently lack breadth of indicators necessary to calculate main poverty indicators
Common Household Background CharacteristicsEU-SILC or other detailed
survey
Common Household Background Characteristics
National Population Census
Background characteristics unique to EU-
SILC
Household Welfare Indicator(s) such as at-risk-of-poverty in
EU-SILC
Step 0
Step 1
Household Welfare Indicator(s) such as at-risk-of-poverty
not in census
Step 2
POVERTY MAP(S)
Highly disaggregated databases of:◦ Poverty◦ Inequality◦ Average income/consumption◦ Calorie intake◦ Under-nutrition◦ Other indicators (health, employment etc)
Disaggregation may, but need not, be spatial; e.g. poverty of “statistically invisible” groups
GoalsGoals◦ Identify poor municipalities◦ Serve a basis for targeting for poverty reductiontargeting for poverty reduction
Implementation: Joint team Implementation: Joint team (Data Users’ Group)◦ Leadership of the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy
(MLSP)◦ Technical expertise of the National Statistical Institute
(NSI)◦ Active involvement of leading Bulgarian academics◦ World Bank financing and technical assistance trough a
Capacity Building Institutional Development Fund (IDF) grant
OutcomesOutcomes◦ 2003 and 2005 poverty incidence maps
MethodologyMethodology◦ Data sources: 2001 Census and 2001 and 2003
Bulgaria Integrated Household Surveys (BIHS), and district level indicators
◦ BIHS: 2,500-3,023 households, representative at NUTS 1 (Sofia, urban, rural level)
◦ 30 common indicators between Census and BIHS◦ Standard “small-area estimation” procedure
Municipal level indicators estimatedMunicipal level indicators estimated◦ Poverty rate, poverty depth, severity of poverty, and
Gini coefficients
Main FindingsMain Findings Considerable variation in poverty levels across
municipalities: 3%-40% of individuals
Considerable variation in poverty levels across municipalities within the same district
Poorest areas characterized by relatively higher shares of ethnic minorities (Roma and Turkish households)
Poorest areas characterized by lacking in:o human capital endowment (prevalence of people with low
education attainment, or elderly pensioners), ando infrastructure
Policy usePolicy use◦ Strategic poverty documents, e.g.
The National Plan for Poverty Reduction 2005-2006 Strategy for Reduction of Poverty and Social Exclusion
2006-08 District Development Strategies 2005-2015
◦ Targeting of antipoverty interventions Program for Poverty Reduction in the (13) Poorest
Municipalities Targeting of Social Investment Fund (SIF) projects included in a multi-dimensional continuous scoring formula
applied for ranking of municipal proposals, along with other indicators
Social Investment and Employment Promotion Project (WB)
Appropriate for targeting Poverty maps can be very useful tool to target poorest areas
Implemented around the world.
Window of opportunity: 2011 Censuses and annual EU-SILC survey data
Involve community of Roma stakeholders to identify Roma communities on poverty map and build ownership
Reports Forthcoming 2011
Step 1: Identify vulnerable (Roma) communities
Step 2: Identify critical gaps in human development outcomes
Step 3: Institutionalize evaluation to learn which type of interventions are likely to have the highest impacts on specific outcomes
Step 4: Ensure that inclusion programs clearly define the specific outcomes they hope to impact
Carry out qualitative case study work
Analyze household survey data on vulnerable Roma communities and national surveys
Implement pilot projects that include a rigorous counterfactual impact evaluation.
21
Survey Partnership: ◦ DG Regional Policy◦ United Nations Development Program ◦ World Bank
Close coordination with survey by:◦ Fundament Rights Agency
Report Forthcoming 2011
International evidence: high return investment
Survey: vast majority Roma parents desire at
least secondary education completion for children
Report objectives:
◦ Provide overview of Roma preschool participation, and
pre-school environment, in kindergartens and at home
◦ Identify key barriers to improving pre-school access
23
Enrollment among Roma children: very large gap
24
OVERVIEW OF PRE-SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT
Enrollment low, only slowly improving
over time (except Hungary)25
OVERVIEW OF PRE-SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.
0P
erce
nt o
f chi
ldre
n en
rolle
d cu
rren
tly
0 2 4 6Age (years)
Bulgaria Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Romania
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.
0P
erce
nt o
f ind
ivid
uals
enr
olle
d in
the
past
20 40 60 80Age (years)
Bulgaria Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Romania
Most parents with children in preschool feel they are welcome
Most parents with children in preschool are satisfied with the preschool
services 26
020
4060
8010
0D
o R
oma
child
ren
feel
wel
com
e at
pre
scho
ol?
Bulgaria Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Romania
Don't agree AgreeCompletely agree
020
4060
8010
0%
of p
aren
ts s
atis
fied
with
pre
scho
olBulgaria Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Romania
Very dissatisfied Somewhat dissatisfiedSomewhat satisfied Very satisfied
27
Boost in:-Cognitive learning outcomes (except Romania) - parenting techniques also!
-Avoiding special school in CZ, SL (table below)-Secondary school completion-Avoiding social assistance
Bulgaria(N=1,441)
Czech Republic(N=1,461)
Hungary(N=1,887)
Romania(N=1,785)
Slovakia(N=1,195)
(1) (3) (4) (6) (10) (12) (13) (15) (7) (9)
Attended preschool as a child?
0.00432(0.00440)
0.00207(0.00514)
-0.0676***(0.0244)
-0.0568**(0.0246)
0.000262(0.0138)
-0.0135(0.0163)
0.0168*(0.00904)
0.0145(0.00960)
-0.0489*(0.0281)
-0.0735**(0.0307)
Background households and individual level characteristics
No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes
R2 0.158 0.173 0.308 0.335 0.281 0.287 0.132 0.148 0.295 0.324
28
Comparing neighbors with similar socio-economic
chars, pre-school increases with:
Parents’ attendance of pre-school
Household hunger
Roma – non-Roma gap (between neighbors)
largely explained by socio-economic background
29
30
Many Roma parents would consider pre-school at
lower costs
Some parents of un-enrolled Roma children would
reconsider with a Roma teacher / mediator in place
31
RESOLVING BARRIERS
1. Informing Roma parents on the returns to pre-
school
(Community) health workers could play this role
2. Lowering the costs (e.g. fees, clothes, food)◦ Providing information about government schemes that
parents may be entitled to
◦ Providing material needs
3. Creating a bridge: community mediators
supporting Roma parents access pres-school for
their children
32
Carry out qualitative case study work
Analyze household survey data on vulnerable Roma communities and national surveys◦ Identifies gaps in human development outcomes◦ Points to specific policies◦ Can be used for other policy questions◦ Can be institutionalized: e.g. Statistical Offices
carry out EU-SILC booster samples in vulnerable communities
Implement pilot projects that include a rigorous counterfactual impact evaluation.