Jonathan Granoff Peace Nobel Price Winner

We are the first Generation todeterminate by our ethical decicions whether to be the last generationat the same time

• Lost Balance • Reasons/Megatrends/

Perspectives • Theoretical Chance• Scenarios of the Future• Global Marshall Plan Initiative• What can you do?

Bayer Young Environmental Envoy 2005

30.000 Humans die on starvation, daily1,5 Billion Humans live with less then 1,0 US$ per day2,8 Billion Humans live with less then 2,0 US$ per day EU-Cow gets subsidies of 2,8 US$ per day

548.000 Billion US$ Finance-Transaktions/Year 31.500 Billion US$ World-GDP /Year 956 Billion US$ Military-Expenses/Year 300 Billion US$ Increase of Wealth of the 600 richest/Year 116 Billion US$ Interest-Payments from South to North/Year 78 Billion US$ Development-Aid from North to South/Year 60 Billion US$ Fiscal Evasion by Off-Shore-Places/Year 25 Billion US$ Profit of Exxon in 2004

Lost Balance

Income in US$/Year

One of the worldwide Poorest 37A Poor in the „Third“ World 150An Unemployement Benefit in Germany 5.000An Avarage Income in Germany 20.000A Senior Civil Servant in Germany 80.000The Highest Ranking Politician in Germany 250.000A Top-Manager in Germany up to 20.000.000A Top-Investmentbanker worldwide up to 600.000.000The third-richest Person in 2004 18.800.000.000

Lost Balance

Years Faktor Gates-Wealth(growth powerd by Years) in

Billion US$ 42

2 1,60 (1,266 to second power) 67 10 10,57

444 14 27,16

1.141 20 111,86

4.700 29 934,50

39.250

Wealth of the 587 Hyper-

Rich in Billion US$

12 16,94 32.200

World GDP in 2004 31.500 Billion US$

1. WorldPopulationgrowth +50% in the next 45 Years

MegatrendsMegatrends

2 Billion 2 Billion..19271927

6,3 Billion 6,3 Billion today today ..9 – 10 Billion9 – 10 Billion20502050..

10.000 generations10.000 generations

one human life-timeone human life-time

1. WorldPopulationgrowth +50% in the next 45 Years 2. New World-Market Economy

• 1980 Reagan / Thatcher• Washington Consensus IMF, Worldbank• 5 Billions Humans more in World-Market Economy

3. Revolution in Communication-Technology4. Revolution in Transport-Technology

MegatrendsMegatrends

Post-War Situation until the 70thThe State is dominant, but business is happy

Globalization has caused …

… the (international) private sector to dominate over the state and public sector.

Tax competition leading to a systematic decrease of corporate tax rates. (OECD figures from: KPMG, 2004, 2)

Corporate Tax Rates in OECD / EU-Countries

Privatization has been predominantly a phenomenon affecting the low income countries.

(Source:Sheshinski/López-Calva, 1999; estimations based on the World Development Indicators)

Public enterprises‘ activity as a percentage of GDP

Private Phones Costlier

Uruguay’s cellular customers benefited from worldwide price reductions, while Argentineans did not. The graph shows the differentiated development.

(Data from ITU, 2003)

Only 1% of all new chemical entities are used for therapeutic innovations on tropical diseases.

(Data from Trouiller et al, 2002, 1188-90)

Underinvestment in Tropical Diseases

Neem Tree Seeds

… in front of the European Patent Office (EPO), Munich

Used for centuries in India for pest control and cosmetics, a fungicide made from Neem treeseeds was patented in 1992 by an US-corporation but later revoked.(Source:Petra C. Fleisser)

Protest against Neem Tree Fungicides Extract Patents

... giving hope for a rebalancing of powers between public and private interests.

A third pillar, civil society is emerging …

85% of worldpopulation

High income(>9‘000 USD/Y)

Low/middle income

78% of global GDP

22% of global

GDP

15% of world

population

BOP

TOP

BOP and World Economic Output

In the North:

increasing more resource intensive lifestyle

In the South: fast growing population and increasing more humans, gaining the lifestyle of the North

Two explosive effects of Growth

4-5 Billion

5 Billion

Globalisation paves the way for a world-wide middle class prosperity of five billion people

Resources Intenseness 2050

Limits to Growth - Club of Rome

Level at the timeLimits to Growth

was first published

World Population

Year

Level at the timeLimits to Growth

was first published

Industrial Production

Index of World Metal Use

29

Resources

Population

Pollution

Industrial Output

Food

Overshoot and Collapse

30

Year

Global Ecological FootprintOne

Indexof Oversh

oot

Nu

mb

er

of E

art

hs

Req

uir

ed

The role of technical advancementsThe role of technical advancements

The resource productivity has to increase by factor 10 in this century

The resource productivity has to increase by factor 10 in this century

• Increasing Eco-Efficiency / Dematerialisation of the World Economy to a factor of 10 in 50 – 100 years.

• With chronicle increasing synchronism of the Gross National Product (GNP) to a factor of 10 in the same time period

The double factor 10

The Rebound-EffectIncreasing use of materials despite dematerialisation

The Advancement Trap

Equity-Situation today

80:20 320:680

100 1000

2005 2050 - 2100The Future Formula

80 von 100

Ø 4

20 von 100 Ø 0,25

100

share

GNP

North 20% South 80%

1,2 6,3 Billion People

at a per capita ratio of 16:1 between North and South

Equity < 12,5%

2000

World-wide pattern of Distribution

world-wide with simultaneous considerable sustainable growth (per year: North 2.8% South 8%)

320 von 1000

Ø 1,83680 von 1000 Ø 0,94

1000

share

GNP

Norden 19,4%

Süden 80,6%

1,75

9 Billion People

320

at a per capita ratio of 2:1 between North

and South

Equity about 50%

2050 - 2100

Change of the Distribution Ratio

Which future?

Free trade and deregulation as meta-philosophy

Consequences • Free riding with CO2 emissions • War for water• Even more people dying of starvation• Even more displacement

15 %Continuation of a Global Laissez-faire

15 %

Recource Dictatorship – rich against poorFree trade and deregulation as meta-philosophy•Grandfather style solutions •Equal treatment of the Un-equal/no equal chance •„plunderer process“ would be legalised, •where applicable, political achievement •Green card used as form of taking advantage•terror as answer / state counter measures •(State terror as an option)•depredation of the civil freedom•(„Chip in every brain“)

50 %

Unequal treatment of unequal starting positionsas a form of true equality of opportunite

• The EU enlargement processes • Montreal Protocol • Co-financing of adaptation of standards• Model of the Marshall Plan after WWII• Sustainability • Global Contract • Global Marshall Plan

Eco-Social Market Economy

35 %

Vision

• We are all in the same boat

• Civil Society, Business, Politics, Media, Science, all Religions, Cultures - together we may solve the enormous challenges

• Global collective intelligence may lead to a Global Consciousness

to reach a better world order system

The Global Marshall Plan intends to implement the UN Millennium Development Goals by 2015. Those include:

• Halving the number of people living on less than 1 dollar/ day • Reducing by two thirds the mortality rate among children• all children complete a full course of primary education • Investing in reproductive healthcare • Providing global, public goods, such as:

- Human dignity for all - Worldwide security

Goals of a Global Marshall Plan

MDG 2: Halving the number of people living on less than 1 dollar/ day in 2040

MDG5: Reducing by two thirds the mortality rate among children in Latinamerica in 2010in Asia in 2030in Africa in 2165

MDG-Realisation under todays Conditions

As Financial volume, an additional international allowance of 120 Billion US$ would be needed yearly, over the time period 2008-2015.

0,41 % Gross National Product (GNP)

Sources: UN-Zedillo ReportWhite Paper Minister Gordon BrownGeorge Soros

Altogether, this is in addition to the present stand of approximately 980 billion US $

Appropriation Requirements

Tobin-Tax0,1 ‰ / 0,2 ‰ (estimated reduction of the markets by 300/200 Trillion US$per year ) 30/40 Billion US$

IMF Special Drawing Rights Per year in favour of the developing countries 30/40 Billion US$

WTO TERRA-Tax0,35 % / 0,5 % 30/40

Billion US$

Cerosine Tax

Raising Funds

Proposal of the Global Marshall Plan Initiative:

Implement the UN-Millennium Goals through intelligent alliance of the international regime

WTO, IMF, WB, ILO, UNEP, UNSCO

Under the patronage of the UN und with the integration of Organisations such as:

UNDP, WIPO, …

Implementation

New forms of appropriation of funds directed to thegrassroots level, while at the same time fightingcorruption

• Education• Microcredit• Renewable Energies• .• .• .• .

Effective Use of Funds

Global Collective Intelligence10.000 separated centersmultiplying each to 10.000 people/brains

100 Million brains around the globe willshare the same ideal

Change the World Order System

Bottum-up Enlighenment• Books 250.000 / year• Presentations 1.000 / year• Website 250.000 / year• Contributions of authors 200 / year• Flyer 500.000 / year• Media 300 / year

– TV (Talkshows, Spots), Walls, Print, Radio,…• Audio/ Video starting 2006

– Download, DVD, …

Global Marshall Plan Initiative TreffenUlm, 24.-25 Juni 2005

Top-Down Campaign 2007Germany may put the Global Marshal Plan

on the Agenda of EU and G8 “Balance-the-World-Campaign” similar to

“Make-Poverty-History”Integrating and focussing activities of

of many organizations of civil societies, business, politics

of different countriesof many celebrities

Balance-the-World-Conference

Very Young Team Small Amazon

250.000 Bookscreate• Awareness• Supporters• Partners• Donors• 40% of our Financial Budget• make a lot of work

Mahatma Gandhi

„Be the chance you want!“

What can you do?

• Support with your activity globalmarshallplan.org• Mention the Initiative in your publications, books• Make Presentations• Support the Initiative by Position Papers • Inform Organizations about us and other way• Use Keywords like “Balance”, Eco-Social Market-

Economy”, • Create new cognitive frames

Victor Hugo

„There is nothing as strong

in this world

as an idea whose time has come“