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Jon Hart (Rolls-Royce Environment Strategy Manager)
for
Leigh Hudson (BA Sustainable Fuels and Carbon Manager
Delivering Environmentally Sustainable
Aviation Fuels
Sheffield University 5th April 2017
Introducing: aviation
1,402
Commercial airlines
3,864
Commercial airports
173 Air navigation service
providers
26,065
Aircraft
in service
38.4 million
Flights (2017)
3.9 billion
Passengers (2017)
51,554
Routes
80% average
passenger load factor
Flights (2017)
Introducing: aviation
62.7 million
Jobs supported
35% of world trade by
value ($6.4 trillion)
21st largest Economy, ranked by
GDP impact
$2.7 trillion
GDP supported (3.5%)
52%
Of tourists fly to their
destinations
Social cohesion
More people have
access to air
travel than ever
Connectivity For today’s modern
world
The climate challenge
Global
challenge 840 million tonnes of CO2 from
aviation (2017)
United Nations Processes
2% Of global human-
induced CO2
Growing industry, particularly
in emerging
economies
80%+
improvement In fuel efficiency
since first jets
88 billion USG
jet fuel (2017)
(270 m tonnes)
Our climate action plan
Our climate action plan
Working to develop a global
market-based measure • 2009: industry presents Governments at ICAO with climate plan.
• 2013: Governments agree to develop global MBM for sector.
• 2016: CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for
International Aviation) agreed
• Currently: technical work at ICAO to design the structure of the
CORSIA/Fuels and implementation from 2020.
Global Market Based Measure (GMBM)
•ICAO resolution set out overall design of the GMBM, and implementation timetable
•Applies to international aviation, (but ideally applied to regional schemes to simplify compliance)
•Requires airlines to purchase carbon offset credits on CO2 emissions above 2020 levels
•2021-2026 – voluntary phase, 65 states agreed to participate. (83% operations covered)
•2027-2035 offsetting mandatory (with exemption – LDC, LLDCs, SIDS,* or low RTK threshold)
Monitor Review Verification : write processes, implement by 2020
Emissions Unit Criteria (EUC) – critical to ensure credibility
2018 – Finalise guidelines on emissions unit eligibility
Registries – critical to avoid double counting (and claiming)
Develop guidance and policies, ICAO establish central registry
Fuels: sustainability criteria and Carbon reduction credit
EU ETS – commission proposal Jan 2017.
• Current scope (intra EEA) continue to 2020. (continued clock-stop for international flights)
• Potentially extend clock-stop on international to 2027 while evaluate GMBM voluntary phase
effectiveness.
ICAO Assembly agreements
Sustainable Alternative fuels
Could reduce CO2 from airline operations by up to 80%.
Industry is working with supply chain, researchers, civil society to
introduce sustainability standards.
Can be created from waste sources and non-food crops.
Over 5,000 commercial flights so far.
90% of the online public across 24 markets worldwide agree:
“Companies should pay more
attention to the environment”
Source: Ipsos Global Adviser
of the online
public across
24 markets
worldwide
agree:
“Companies
should do more to
contribute to
society”
86%
Source: Ipsos
Global Adviser
Strongly disagree
Tend to disagree
Tend to agree
Most large companies in the UK are working for the long term good of
everyone
Strongly agree (2%)
Source: Ipsos MORI
Neither agree nor disagree
Only 13% agree that most companies are
already doing it – half (47%) disagree
… But few think it is currently happening to any great extent
Are sustainable fuels really sustainable?
Fuel processing routes
Sustainability challenges
Sustainability certification
Indirect effects
Harmonisation
It’s not just about the climate
Global
Sustainable Aviation Fuels Users
Group (40% aviation fuel)
• Production non-competitive with food
• Biodiversity impacts are minimized;
• Should not jeopardize drinking water supplies/affect water stressed
areas
• High conservation value areas & native eco-system should not be
cleared and cultivated for aviation fuel production– directly or indirectly;
• Total life cycle GHG emissions should be significantly reduced
compared to those associated with fossil sources (at least 60%
emission saving);
• In developing economies, development projects should improve
socioeconomic conditions for small-scale farmers who rely on
agriculture to feed them and their families, and that do not require the
involuntary displacement of local populations.
Certified
pathways
Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene
Pros
Can take low value
materials and have low
cost of production
Cons
Not commercially proven
at scale
High cap ex for plant
making financing difficult
Certified
pathways Pros
Existing production
capacity exists for road
transport
Cons
Veg oils are unsustainable
if grown on agricultural
land (food vs fuel and
indirect land use change)
High conversion losses
and costs of production
Hydrogenated Esters and
Fatty Acids (HEFA)
Certified
pathways Pros
High value SIP (DSHC)
could cross subsidise fuels
production
Could eventually use
agricultural residues/waste
Cons
Uses sugars grown on
agricultural land
Cost is high and it has a
lucrative market in
health/fragrance/pharma
Synthesised Iso-Paraffinic
or
Figures exclude ILUC, which could significantly reduce CO2
benefits for some feedstocks, or make them worse than
conventional fuel
Sustainable Aviation:
Cleaner, Quieter,
Smarter
16 July 2014
Current Signatories
Boeing
Heathrow
UTC Aerospace Systems
SA CO2 Road-Map (2016)
What technologies will be possible? How much fuel will we need to meet the emission reductions we
outlined? What fuel can be manufactured here in the UK?
What is the global picture?
The potential for sustainable aviation
fuels
Project objectives
– What volumes of sustainable fuels could be available for UK aviation
in 2030?
• CO2 emissions savings
• Value added to the UK economy, including jobs
– How much sustainable fuel is required to meet the SA projections for
2050?
• Validate the Sustainable Aviation CO2 Roadmap estimated that by
2050 sustainable fuels would offer GHG emission savings of 15 –
24%
Scope
Sustainable fuels - produced from wastes (including biogenic and non-biogenic post-consumer
and industrial wastes), residues, and non-food crops from degraded land (avoiding food versus
fuel conflicts and ILUC)
& provide GHG savings of at least 60% compared to conventional kerosene
UK sustainable aviation fuel
potential in 2030
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Sustainable aviation fuel production, UK Tonnes per annum
High scenario Low scenario BAU
4.3% aviation fuel demand
Worldwide: • 2020 global production: 1.3 million tonnes* • 2030 global production: 3 and 13 million tonnes in 2030 • 2030 share of aviation fuel demand: 0.7% and 3.1%
0.7% aviation fuel demand
*(Ref. 2017 total jet fuel consumption 270 m tonnes)
Examples of US alt jet fuel supply – 2016 Fuel
company
Country
base
Conversion
Process type
ASTM
CLEARED
Suitability
Max
blend
Feedstock
LCA –
Sustainability
% GHG
reduction*
Volume prod
Scale
Airlines/custome
rs supporting
In commercial
aviation use?
Tons PA
Alt Air fuels USA UOP HEFA Yes – in 2011 (D7566 Annex A2)
30% (50%
max)
Tallow 45-60%
RSB certified
42 mil USG/yr United
KLM
Gulfstream
LAX 5mil USG/yr 3 yrs
LAX ?
Tests/demos
6,000
?
Fulcrum
Bioenergy
USA 1. Gasifica
tion
2. FT
(Fischer
-
Tropsch
)
Yes – in 2009
(D7566 Annex
A1)
50%
max
MSW TBD 1st refinery
planned 2018 +
others WIP
Cathay
United
Air BP
375 mil USG 10yrs
90-180 mil USG/yr 10
yrs
50 mil USG/yr 10 yrs
125,000
60,000
17,000
LanzaTech New
Zealand
1. Ferment
ation to
ethanol,
2. AtJ
process
WIP (11k litres RR
CLEEN2)
TBD
CO from steel
mill
Depends on
region
55-80% (LT
assessment **)
China 100,000
USG/yr, Taiwan,
Belgiuim
+ DoE $40m grant
for demo plant
Virgin demos
Red Rock
Biofuels
USA 1. Gasifica
tion
2. FT
(Fischer
-
Tropsch
)
Yes – in 2009
(D7566 Annex
A1)
50%
max
Woody biomass
Forestry residue
70-80% Prod from 2017 15
mil USG total
Plants 2,3 WIP
Fedex
Southwest
3 mil USG/yr 8 yrs
3 mil USG/yr 8 yrs
1,200
1,200
SG Preston USA UOP HEFA Yes – in 2011 (D7566 Annex A2)
30% Various
renewable
biomass
Nom 0<50%<-
200%
V dependent on
feedstock
Several Plants
each 120mil
USG/yr
Jet Blue 33mil USG/yr 10 yrs
11,000
Gevo USA 1. Ferment
ation to
isobutan
ol,
2. an AtJ
process
Yes – in 2016
(D7566 Annex
A5)
30%
max
Non-edible corn.
Woody biomass
Forestry waste
55-80%
Targeting
$4.50/USG
2017- 0.5mil
USG/yr
Prod 1.5mil USG/yr
Alaska
Lufthansa
Demos
33mil USG/yr 10 yrs
11,000
NESTE Finland 1. HEFA Yes 50% 79% waste
19% palm oil
2% veg oil
Finland .2mTPA
S’Pore 1m TPA
Holland 1m TPA
Lufthansa
KLM
SAS
2,400,000
*(Ref. 2017 total jet fuel consumption est. 270 m tonnes)
Trajectory to meet 2050 GHG emission targets
30
• UK aviation fuel use estimated to peak around 2040 and decline such that demand in 2050 is approx.
equal to 2030 at almost 15 Million tonnes
• UK require 3.3 – 4.5 million tonnes of sustainable fuels to achieve GHG savings of 18 to 24%
• Global aviation industry will require 140 – 190 Million tonnes of sustainable fuel
• To achieve these production rates would require a sustained annual growth of 14 to 18%
Potential benefits to the UK of
developing sustainable fuels
31
Worldwide • In 2030, there may be between 90 and 160 sustainable fuel plants in operation
globally producing aviation fuels in combination with fuels for road transport
and other modes
• Global revenue for these sustainable fuel plants is estimated at between £8
billion and £17 billion
UK • In 2030, between 5 and 12 sustainable fuel plants producing a combination
of aviation and road transport fuels (between 20% and 60% aviation fuel)
• Gross value added contribution to the UK economy is estimated at between
£70 million and £265 million, including global exports of £100 million to
£220
• Between 900 and 3,400 UK jobs, including 500 to 1,000 linked to global
exports
Overcoming Barriers: Enabling sustainable
aviation fuel production by de-risking investment
This chart
illustrates the
urgent need to
act now to
reduce
investment risk
over the next 10
years to ensure
that commercial
scale production
can be achieved
from 2030.
UK policy - Levelling the
playing field • Proposal for Aviation jet fuel to count towards
transport RTFO from 2020. – allow sustainable jet to qualify for tradeable certificates within incentive
regimes (e.g. RTFCs in the UK)
• Still discussion on: – what % volume cap,
– whether fixed or increasing over time
– what feedstock types are eligible (incl what wastes)
– what CO2 reduction benefit
RTFC = UK Renewable Transport Fuel Certificate
RTFO = UK Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation
Sustainable Alternative Fuels – Why aviation ?
• Supply industry benefits of working with aviation sector: – We have no alternative technologies to liquid fuel to meet our 50%
reduction in emissions by 2050
– Other sectors have alternative technologies eg electric
– Relatively simple supply logistics ~ 100 airports = 80%+ global demand
– We are investors for the long-term
• Focus on second generation biofuels that avoid negative environment impacts and produce clean burning fuels
• We import 60% of our jet fuel into the UK and this trend is set to continue
Commercial Sustainable Biofuel
North America Southwest Fedex United Cathay Pacific
Europe BA France/KLM Lufthansa Finnair SAS
Global Airline Projects Sustainable Fuels
South America GOL Aeromexico
Asia Virgin Atlantic JAL ANA
Collaboration is key