Stennis Space Center1

Joint ASPRS/NASA CRSP Activities in Support of SAA

As Of12/07/99

Stennis Space Center2

ASPRS/CRSP Tasks Accomplished 11/17

• Discussed & Tentatively Accepted SAA Vison, Mission, Goals and Objectives• Confirmed May 2000 Committment • Continued Organizing• Confirmed Forecast Sections • Confirmed Industry Segments• Confirmed Forecast Framework• Confirmed Data Collection Approach • Developed Initial Interview and Survey Plans• Developed Interview List• Continued to Develop Timely Issues• Shelved “Definitions”• Generated New Tasks

Stennis Space Center3

Strategic Plan Contents

• Vision 5-years

• Mission

(Attainable end-state)

(Major milestones. Qualitative and Quantitative)

(You gotta be able to know you’re there)(Measurable)

(Enable/Facilitate get there)

(Who, what, when, where, why)

• Goals

• Objectives

• Strategies

Stennis Space Center4

Vision

• Background– The commercial remote sensing industry (RSI) is on the verge of a dramatic

take-off. The potential socio-economic, environmental and national security benefits to the U.S. are huge, especially as we enter the Information Age.

– To more clearly determine future remote sensing (RS) needs and requirements and maximize the socio-economic potential, industry baselines and standards need to be established. The combined resources of ASPRS and NASA’s Commercial Remote Sensing Program (CRSP) are particularly well suited to lead this base-lining effort.

– Under the aegis of a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), ASPRS and CRSP have combined resources and expertise and, over the next half-decade, will develop the definitive Industry view of the RSI.

• Vision. By end-FY 2004, the joint ASPRS/NASA CRSP endeavor will produce a cohesive, comprehensive Remote Sensing Industry analysis that will serve as the planning standard for both USG and private industry enterprises and facilitate U.S. dominance in this highly competitive market.

Stennis Space Center5

Mission

By end FY 2004, ASPRS andNASA/CRSP will jointly develop the Remote Sensing Industry standard baseline and 10-year business

forecastand related processes

Stennis Space Center6

Goals• Create and Maintain Interest and Awareness of the Project 8/1999 to 9/2004

• Develop (“CEO”) Interview Process 8/1999 to 1/2001

• Develop Survey Process* 8/1999 to 1/2001

• Develop Market Forecast Process** 8/1999 to 6/2002

• Present Results of Literature Searches Re: Key Trends and Issues 5/2000 to 9/2004

• Conduct Interview II and Survey II 1/2003 to 12/2003

• Conduct Forecast II 1/2004 to 12/2004

* = Includes Reporting Final Results 12/2000** = Includes Reporting Final Results 12/2000

Stennis Space Center7

Objectives 1

Goals Objectives Date(s) Lead Support Create & Maintain Interest and Awareness 8/1999-9/2004 ASPRS Mondello CRSP Rabin

Conduct "P.R." Campaign Continuous ASPRS Brown CRSP Mick Recruit Working Group IPTs 1/2000-1/2001 ASPRS Mondello CRSP Rabin

Interview 1/2000 Survey 6/2000 Literature Search 11/1999 Forecast 1/2001 Others TBA N/A

Develop ("CEO") Interview Process 8/1999-1/2001 ASPRS Mondello CRSP Rabin Develop Plan (including questions) End Jan 2000 ASPRS Mondello CRSP Rabin Conduct Preliminary Interviews End Feb 2000 ASPRS Mondello CRSP Rabin Form IPT 3/2000 ASPRS Mondello CRSP Rabin Collect Interview Data ("100-plus"

Interviews)End Nov 2000 ASPRS IPT CRSP IPT

Analyze Interview Data 2-10/2000 ASPRS IPT CRSP IPT Report Interim Interview Results 5/2000 ASPRS IPT CRSP IPT Present Final Interview Results 12/2000 ASPRS IPT CRSP IPT Document the Interview Process 1/2000-1/2001 ASPRS IPT CRSP IPT

Develop Survey Process 8/1999-1/2001 CRSP Piper ASPRS Plasker Develop Plan (Includes Questions) 8/1999-4/2000 CRSP Piper ASPRS Plasker Present Plan 5/2000 CRSP Piper ASPRS Plasker Implement the Plan 6/2000 ASPRS Plasker CRSP Piper Form IPT 5-7/2000 ASPRS Plasker CRSP Piper Collect Survey Data 7-11/2000 ASPRS Plasker CRSP Piper Analyze Data 7-11/2000 CRSP IPT ASPRS IPT Present Final Survey Results 12/2000 CRSP IPT ASPRS IPT Document the Survey Process 8/1999-1/2001 CRSP IPT ASPRS IPT

Develop Market Forecast Process 8/1999-9/2004 CRSP Rabin ASPRS Brown Develop Concept 8/1999-12/2000 CRSP Rabin ASPRS Brown Form IPT 1/2001 ASPRS Brown CRSP Rabin Develop Plan 1/20011-5/2001 CRSP IPT ASPRS IPT Present Plan 5/2001 CRSP IPT ASPRS IPT

Stennis Space Center8

Objectives 2

Goals Objectives Date(s) Lead Support Implement the Plan 6/2001-4/2002 CRSP IPT ASPRS IPT Collect Forecast Data 6/2001-4/2002 CRSP IPT ASPRS IPT Analyze Data 6/2001-4/2002 CRSP IPT ASPRS IPT Present Interim Forecast

Results12/2001 ASPRS IPT IPT

Present Final Forecast Results 5/2002 CRSP IPT ASPRS IPT

Document the Forecast Process 8/1999-6/2002 CRSP IPT ASPRS IPT

Present Results of Literature Search (Annually) 12/2000 ASPRS Plasker CRSP Mick

Present Key Trends and Issues (Annually) 12/2000 ASPRS Mondello

CRSP Rabin

Conduct Survey II 12/2003 Report ASPRS Plasker CRSP Piper

Conduct Interview II 12/2003 Report ASPRS Mondello

CRSP Rabin

Conduct Forecast II 12/2004 Report ASPRS Mondello

CRSP Rabin

Stennis Space Center9

Consolidated May 2000 Objective

•Present:– SAA Strategic Plan– Interim Interview Results– Survey Plan

Stennis Space Center10

Vice Co-Chairpersons

MelindaBrown

GaryMoll

Mike RenslowMark Mick

Co-Chairpersons

Bill Piper

Barbara Brodtmann

Jim Plasker

Nate Boyer

AlanMikuni

George Hepner

KarenSchuckman

Charles MondelloRon Rabin

John Schott

JoanZelinski

Forecast IPT

Working Group IPTs Will be Formed as Needed• Lit. Search: Jim Plasker/Mark Mick• Interview: Charles Mondello/Ron Rabin • Survey: Bill Piper/Jim Plasker• Forecast: Ron Rabin/Mindy Brown• Marketing: Mindy Brown

Stennis Space Center11

Forecast Sections

• Baseline of Major Industry Segments • 10-year Industry Forecast (Total and by

Segment)• Key Issues, Trends and Drivers• Key Technologies• Future Directions and Opportunities

Stennis Space Center12

Forecast Process Overview

9

Formulate Forecast

Objectives

DeterminePurpose

& Focus Area(s)

Decide to ConductForecast

Select Segments For

Analysis

• Interview• Survey• Lit. Search

Develop Data Collection

Plan

Determine Essential

InformationElements

Develop ReportOutline

• Written• Presentation

DevelopForecast Plan

Recommendations

Analyze Data

Conclusions

Collect Data

Organize To ConductForecast

Feedback/Lessons Learned

AssembleTeam

I.D. Opportunity Areas• Technologies• New Products• Basic Research• Training/Education• Employment

PresentForecast

We are about

Here in theprocess

Stennis Space Center13

DataCollection

Data Processing

HARDWARE/SOFTWARETOOLMAKERS

Remote Sensing Industry Segments

IndustryIntermediaries

SupportElements

End-User

Platforms & Sensors

Industry Segments

Stennis Space Center14

Data Collection

Data Processing

Support

Elements

Intermediaries

Busin

ess

Segm

ents

Market Segments

Commercial

Government

Industry Segments

Forecast Framework

Stennis Space Center15

Collection Matrix

Sources Of I nformationForecastElements I nterview Survey Literature

Search Market Segments X X Baseline Elements X X X

$$ Forecast X X I ssues & Drivers X X Technologies X X X Opportunities X X Future trends X X X ??? ???

Actual

Stennis Space Center16

Interviews & Analysis

Means

Essential ForecastElements of Information

Data Collection & Analysis Approach

• Goals • Organization• Definition• Customer Segments • Forecast Sections• Forecast Framework

OBJECTIVES (Who/What/

Where?)

Targets

Collection Plan

Survey Plan

Interview Lists & Appointments

CollectSurvey Data

SurveyAnalysisInterview Plan

Interview

Results

SurveyResults

Literature Search

ANALYSIS

We AreAbout Here

Stennis Space Center17

Potential Issues to Address

• Effects of eCommerce/eBusiness on RSI

• Information Security• Perceived Government Competition • Workforce Development• End-User Development• Industry Standards/Interoperability• ???

Stennis Space Center18

• Strategic Plan ( Mondello and Rabin) 17 Nov

• 5 Questions for “CEOs” (Piper)17 Nov

• Definitions (Boyer) •10 Interviews (Renslow and Mondello)

• 150 Interviews (Renslow and Mondello)

• Analysis of Interview Results (IPT)

• Survey Construct (Piper)

• Survey Distribution (Plasker)

• Analysis of Survey Results (IPT)

• Combined Analysis of Survey and Interview Results (IPT)

• Prepare for May 2000 (IPT)

Tasks

Additional Tasks To be provided by C. Mondello

Stennis Space Center19

Back-Up

Stennis Space Center20

Top-line Market Forecast Example

YEARSMARKETSEGMENTS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009World RSIMarket

3110 3550 4100 4650 5350 6110 7000 8050 9280 10730

U.S. RSIMarket

840 960 1130 1300 1520 1770 2060 2410 2830 3330

U.S.Space ImagingSegment of RSIMarket

120 150 200 270 370 480 610 790 1020 1310

U.S. AerialImaging Segmentof RSI Market

720 810 930 1030 1150 1290 1440 1620 1810 2030

SupportElements

Industry Intermediaries

Data Collection

Data Processing

Stennis Space Center21

Example Forecast by Market of Interest

Estimated Market (1999 $M)Industry Sector

Percent ofMarket

Applications2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mapping & Surveying 48 400 460 540 625 730 850 990 1160 1360 1600

Agriculture 6 50 60 70 80 90 105 125 145 170 200

Forestry 5 40 40 60 65 75 90 105 120 140 170

Construction/Monitoring 15 125 145 170 195 225 265 310 360 425 500

Environmental Analysis 18 150 175 205 235 275 320 370 435 510 600

Weather 6 50 60 70 80 90 105 125 145 170 200

Edutainment 2 15 20 23 26 30 35 40 50 60 70

Stennis Space Center22

Example Forecast by ApplicationEstimated Market by Application

Application/Use2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

A/E/C 42 48 57 65 76 89 103 121 142 167 Site Selection 42 48 57 65 76 89 103 121 142 167

Automated Mapping/FacilitiesManagement 67 77 90 104 122 142 165 193 226 266

Cartography 92 106 124 143 167 195 227 265 311 366 Demographics/Population Analysis 34 38 45 52 61 71 82 96 113 133 Surveying and Mapping 92 106 124 143 167 195 227 265 311 366

Environmental Services 84 96 113 130 152 177 206 241 283 333

Agriculture/Forestry/NaturalResources 118 134 158 182 213 248 288 337 396 466

Geology/Geoscience 59 67 79 91 106 124 144 169 198 233 Oil/Gas/Mining 17 19 23 26 30 35 41 48 57 67

Land/Property Management 59 67 79 91 106 124 144 169 198 233 Planning, Zoning, Public Works 50 58 68 78 91 106 124 145 170 200 Redistricting 8 10 11 13 15 18 21 24 28 33 Tax Assessment 17 19 23 26 30 35 41 48 57 67

Marketing 17 19 23 26 30 35 41 48 57 67

Real Estate 17 19 23 26 30 35 41 48 57 67

Transportation (Federal& StateHighways)

24 30 33 39 45 58 63 72 84 99

Stennis Space Center23

• Select Data Fields for - Aerial- Space- Customer - Business - Other???

Data FieldsSize

I ndustrySegments I dentifica-

tionProducts

Pers Sales

??

Services Platforms Sensors ????

Data CollectorsDataProcessersI ndustryI ntermediariesSupportElements

Data Base Concepts

Stennis Space Center24

Includes :• Data Collectors • Data Processers• Industry Intermediaries• Support Elements • Decision Makers• End-Users

Data Collection Data Processing/VADs

Industry Intermediaries

SupportElements

Decision MakersDecision Makers

Decision Makers

Decision Makers

End-UsersEnd-Users

End-Users End-Users

Remote Sensing Industry

Stennis Space Center25

• Commercial End-users• Commercial Outlet

Industry (nee VARs, etc.)

• Government Agencies• Academia• “Not-for Profits”• Personal Use

Industry Segments