Joint Action Group for Operational Community

Modeling (JAG/OCM) updateFall COPC 2009

Mr. Evan KucheraJAG/OCM Chair

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Overview

JAG/OCM membership

Status of Initiatives COPC AI 2009 1-7: AFWA, FNMOC, and NAVOCEANO will review,

sign, and implement the WestPac alignment plan, Option 1, and continue to explore option 2

COPC AI 2009 1-8: CSAB will coordinate a workshop for subject matter experts to plan development and testing of a WestPac ensemble intended for future operations. Plan will include development milestones, methods for developing and managing ensemble diversity, type of products, number of members, and an estimate of resources

Recommendations

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JAG/OCM Membership

AFWA—Evan Kuchera (Chair)

NOAA/NCEP—Bill Lapenta

FNMOC—Roger Stocker

NAVO—Frank Bub

NRL/MRY– Pat Phoebus

CNMOC—Steve Payne

OFCM—Ken Barnett

Recent changes shown in red

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COPC AI 2009 1-7Align WestPac for Backup

Summary: FNMOC/AFWA align one domain (WestPac) and exchange minimum set of necessary variables on identical grid Serves as “hot” backup in case of outage Pathfinder for full alignment of common-area domains Pathfinder for future ensemble alignment

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COPC AI 2009 1-7Align WestPac for Backup

Final coordination in JAG/OCM Discussed issues with C versus A grid

Interpolation of C grid winds with A grid surface features (i.e. roughness lengths) during integration causes smoothing and degraded coastal wind forecasts

A grid will be used for exchange—issues will be addressed in future model development

Removed wave-related variables from required output

Final coordination in CSAB OFCM re-organized document (much cleaner)

Outstanding technical issues being resolved

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COPC AI 2009 1-7Align WestPac for Backup

Option 2 exploration NAVO requested domain

cover larger area for longer forecast run

Resources not yet available for expansion

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COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles

Summary: Develop plan to exchange mesoscale ensemble output for the mutual benefit of each center

Face to face with FNMOC/AFWA Agreement that unresolved science issues preclude

laying out too many exact details at this time Instead, agreed on “vision” items to guide development

tracks (next 4 slides…)

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COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles

Goals of ensemble exchange: Increase membership at low cost Independent uncertainty estimates from diverse

modeling systems

Technical developers should discuss progress/challenges frequently and informally

Alignment should be reserved for broad areas consistently important to DoD (East Asia and SWA).

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COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles

Resolutions should be kept somewhat coarse to free resources for higher resolution ensembles made locally Still get benefit of diverse multi-center initial conditions for high-res

locally-generated ensembles

All datasets (aligned or not) should be made available via “come and get it” servers and JMBL with GRIB2 used as much as possible

Each center will determine its own ensemble design with no veto powers Information about strengths and weaknesses should be shared

frequently.

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COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles

Diagnosis algorithms should be shared and leveraged For variables of mutual importance, development should be

divided between agencies to reduce duplication of effort Long term goal should be a unified ensemble post-

processor

Land surface ensembling will be an AFWA effort, while sea surface ensembling will be a FNMOC/NAVO effort Each can leverage the work of the other as needed

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COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles

Raw members should always be exchanged to retain physical mesoscale features of importance Statistical information can be made locally, or

exchanged in addition to the raw members

Timeliness requirements can be somewhat relaxed Older ensemble information is often superior to newer

deterministic information

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COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles

Mesoscale ensemble workshop in Boulder 22-25 Sept Brought together academia and operators to publish a

white paper on requirements to get to a national mesoscale ensemble asset

Broader in scope than AI 2009 1-8; some overlap

Workshop observations CONUS-centric—little discussion of OCONUS Will DoD and DoC be separate on mesoscale ensemble

modeling?

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JAG Recommendations

Alignment of model domains (COPC AI 2009 1-7) Continue AI 2009 1-7 until work is complete (late 2009) New AI: Investigate and propose SWA alignment area

Ensembles (COPC AI 2009 1-8) Close AI 2009 1-8 New AI: Delineate algorithm development responsibilities for

variables of shared interest Establish sub-committee to work out details Unite around common ensemble post-processing software before

ensembles become more firmly entrenched in ops