John W. Martin - TMRS Matter... · John W. Martin Southeastern Institute of Research New Planning Perspective Today’s Agenda 1 Major Trends Shaping 2 Retirement Systems 3 What To

12/17/2014

© SIR Research, All Rights Reserved

1

John W.

Martin

Southeastern Institute of Research

New Planning Perspective

Today’s Agenda

1

Major Trends Shaping Retirement Systems2

3 What To Do Next

The

Future

Societal

Trends

Cultural

Trends

Demographic

Trends

12/17/2014


2

Another Way To Understand What’s

Happening Today and What’s Most Likely to

Happen in the Future

Age cohort: 15-to-20 year span

Big events create the “bookends”

Born on the leading and tail edge - “cuspers”

What’s A Generation?

1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-82 1983-01

58,000,000

44,000,000

76,000,000

62,000,000

81,000,000

Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial

94 75 57 39 20

Born in the U.S.A

12/17/2014


3

Climax of personal development

75+Reconcilia-tion (making sense of life)

Ironic: There’s some good in every bad, some bad in every good – c’est la vie!

Different Seasons, Different Reasons

Source: Ageless Marketing

Stage: Age: Life Focus: Modus Operandi:

Initial personal development

Birth-25Play(learning)

Fantasy: Everything will generally work out in my favor

Social/ vocational development

25-50Work(becoming somebody)

Romantic: The world is my oyster; I can make anything work my way

Inner self/ spiritual development

50-75Work-Play(search for meaning)

Reality: Not as good as I thought; who am I, what’s my life purpose?

Spring

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Dedicated

Loyal

Practical

Dependable

Generational ValuesDedication and Sacrifice

Hard work

Patience

Respect for authority

Duty before pleasure

Honor

Culture’s Impact: Silent Generation

Defining Events

Great Depression

The New Deal

Lindbergh’s Flight

Gone with the Wind

Pearl Harbor

WWII

Hiroshima

Generational ValuesPersonal Gratification

Entitlement

Control

Work Ethic

No to Status Quo

Optimism

Defining EventsBirth of TVProsperityCold War

Political AssassinationsWatergate

Rock ‘n RollGrowth of Suburbia

Women’s LibCivil Rights

Vietnam

Culture’s Impact: Boomers

Driven

Transformational

“Self” Centered

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Risk-takers

Skeptical

Independent

Task-driven

Generational ValuesTechnosavvy

Think Globally

Self-reliance

Diversity

Pragmatic

Culture’s Impact: Gen X

Defining EventsWatergate

Single parents

Latchkey kids

MTV

AIDs

Computers

Challenger

Glasnost

Berlin Wall

Co-dependent

Purposeful

Ambitious

Generational ValuesConfidence plus

Civic duty

Achievement

Hyper connected

Multi-tasking on steroids

Fearless

Defining EventsInternet/Social Media

School violence

Over-involved parenting

Multi-culturalism

9/11attacks

Gulf War(s)

“Fame-ification”

Great Recession

Technology ++

Culture’s Impact: Millennials

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Millennials’ Orientation:

Collective

Self

Redefining Community

Sharing

Space

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Micro-Apt.

Sharing

Homes

Sharing Food

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Sharing

Rides

Source: CNW Research

38%

1985

27%

The Percentage of New Cars Sold

To 21-to-34year olds

Today

The Long-term

Future

Social

Security

Reinvented?

12/17/2014


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Today’s Agenda

1


3 What To Do Next

Implication

Impact On

Retirement

Systems

Ten

Major

Trends

Demographic

Cultural

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Shift #1

Population

Shift

U.S Population

319 Million

Source: U. S. Census Reports

Today

358 Million

2030

Source: Pitkins & Meyers USC 2011

U.S. Population Growth Projections

Immigration = Growth

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50% percent of the

state’s growth from

2000-2010 was

the result of

Natural Increase

50%percent was the result

of people moving into

the state from other

areas - Migration

Texas Growth Facts 2000-2010

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50%Migration

Texas Growth Facts 2000-2010

30%From other

states 2010-2012

20% From other

countries2010-2012

So just

10%

of Texas’

growth

coming

from other

countries(based on 2012 data)

Your Future

More

People

To Serve

Shift #2

Diversity

Shift

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Texas Racial CompositionTexas State Data Center

2050Hispanics Will Make Up

The Majority of Texans

Based on their Reality

61% 19%Millennials 4%13%

White Hispanic AsianBlack

62% 18% 6%12

%

73% 4%11%

80% 7% 4%

Gen X

Boomers

Silent

10%

9%

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The Future

Growing Need

To Reflect

Community

Diversity

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Shift #3

Urban

Shift

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2010-2040

Your Future

Increasing

Growth of

Urban Areas

Your Future

Growing

Sustainability

Issues For

Rural Areas

12/17/2014


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Shift #4

Household

Shift

SIR-Boomer Project analysis of U.S. Census Data

Adults Married

49%72%1972 2014


HH with Married Adults

& Their Children

19%40%1970 2012

12/17/2014


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Birth To Unmarried Women

41%5%1941 2012

Total households: 121,084,000 (100%)


Single Headed Household

18%


Living Alone

27%

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Your Future

Family Still

At The

Center of

Everything

1970 2010

60% 60%

40% 40%

Percentage of College Degree

M F M F

Source: Dept. Of Education

Your Future

More

Female

Employees

12/17/2014


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Your Future

More

Female

Members

Your Future

Greater

Female Focused

Communications

Audit Your

Communication Materials With A Famine Lens

12/17/2014


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Shift #5

Age

Shift

U.S. - Life Expectancy

1900 2010

47

80

1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-81 1982-01

58,000,000

44,000,000

76,000,000

62,000,000

80,000,000

Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Gen Y

5 Gens

12/17/2014


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2. Shifting

Birth Rates

What Will It Be Like

To Have 20% of the

Population Be

65+ Seniors?

Average Children Per Woman

2.1

3.7

2.2

In the U.S.

the population over

age 65 will grow

from 38 million today to

72 millionby 2031

12/17/2014


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1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-82 1983-01

38,000,000

72,000,000

62,000,000

80,000,000

Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial

94 75 57 39 20

Born in the U.S.A

2000

U.S. Population 65+

Source: US Census

11%

2030

19%

2020

16%

2010

13%

2015

12%

2025

15%

2020

13%

Source: US Census

2030

16%

2010 Actual

10%

Texas’ Population 65+

12/17/2014


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Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in

Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected

2000 2040

= 20% or More

The Future of Rural Texas

2015

12%

2025

15%

2020

13%

Source: US Census

2030

22%

2010 Actual

10%

Texas’ Rural Population 65+

12/17/2014


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Your Future

More People &

Conversations

Around Retirement

Matters and Issues

Your Future

Greater

Demand for

TMRS’

Services

Ten

Major

Trends

Demographic

Cultural

12/17/2014


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Shift #6

Retirement

Shift

88%Plan to continue to work after they are

eligible for full retirement benefits

Source: August 2010 Charles Schwab Study

Changing Retirement Date Expectation

“When do you expect

you’ll retire?”

Boomers in

their 50s:

Boomers in

their 60s:

After age 65:

57%

85%

Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, 2012

12/17/2014


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Work after Retiring?

“Do you plan to work

after you retire?”

Boomers in

their 50s:Boomers in

their 60s:

YES/MAYBE:

84% 78%

Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, 2012

Rule

of 1/33 Core Boomer Financial Segments

Your Future

De-emphasize

Retirement as

A One Time

Event

12/17/2014


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The Future

Support

Retirement

Planning As A

Journey

Shift #7

Sustainability

Shift

12/17/2014


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Green is

Mainstream:

80%think or act

“Green”

For Everyone

Greater

Expectation

To Be

Sustainable

Your Future

More Pressure

for “Socially

Conscious

Investing”

12/17/2014


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The Future

Showcase

Your

True Green

Colors

TMRS Planning

Paper

Electronic

Shift #8

Increasing

Consumer

Expectations

12/17/2014


30

The Future

Build On Your

Online / Mobile

Retirement

Planning Tools

Gen Xers’ Orientation:

Self-reliant

Free-agent

Millennials’ Orientation:

Collective

Self

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Shift #9

Increasing

Consumer

Responsibility

12/17/2014


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Responsibilities Shifting

To The Individual

Health Insurance

Company

Individual

Retirement

Company

Individual

Growing Need For

Personal Involvement

The private sector employers

always managed workers’

investments in a pension.

Retirees didn't need to make any

decisions other than when to

start receiving their benefits

Millennials Are

Not Prepared

For This

Responsibility

Source: Investor Education Foundation, a program of FINRA,

the Washington, D.C-based Financial Industry Regulatory Authority

12/17/2014


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“The Wealth Gap”

10X

1984 2010

47X65+

Year

Olds35 and

Under

65+

Year

Olds

$28,000Average College Debt

The Future

Helping

Younger

Members

Learn

12/17/2014


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Shift #10

Growth of

Purpose

What once was

Resume, career path,

business associates

Likes, dislikes, friends,

social circles, interest

areas, and so on

Price paid, mortgage,

taxes paid, current value

Is now very

Attitudes

Beliefs

Actions

Access

Information

Platforms

Power

Open/Transparent/Public:

12/17/2014


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What I am

About …

Changing My

Community

Open/Transparent/Public:

Parallel Paths

As Individuals* moved down this path…

…Organizations followed

Privately-held

Beliefs, Values,

Purpose

Publically-declared

Beliefs, Values,

Purpose

* Mostly Millennials at first

Your Future

Become

Hyper-

Transparent

12/17/2014


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Your Future

Become A

Purposeful

Brand

12/17/2014


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Bigger than

who you are,

what you do,

how you do it.

It’s your

“WHY.”

PURPOSE

What To Do Next?

Associate With A

Purposeful Cause.

Financial

Literacy?


Today’s Agenda

1


3 What To Do Next

12/17/2014


38

1Use A Generational

Lens As Part of Your

Leadership &

Diversity Training

BOOMER Employee:

Organizational Value:

Legacy & Mentoring

GEN X Employee:


Tasks & Outcomes

12/17/2014


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MILLENNIAL Employee:


Teambuilding

& Collaboration

2Use A Generational

Lens To Better Serve

Member Segments

BOOMER Members:

Help Boomers remain “vital.”

Help them through the

de-accumulation phase…

not just an event

12/17/2014


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GEN X Members:

Give Gen Xers the tools

and knowledge to self-

manage their account.

MILLENNIAL Member:

Focus on your relevance

today:

Showcase your values and help

educate Millennials so they, in

turn, will educate their

“collective.”

John Martin

SIR Research

[email protected]

Documents

John W. Martin - TMRS Matter... · John W. Martin Southeastern Institute of Research New Planning Perspective Today’s Agenda 1 Major Trends Shaping 2 Retirement Systems 3 What To