Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Robots and Risk. What could possibly go wrong?
John Thornton
Director E-ssential Resources
Public Finance Live 2019, Birmingham
Robots and Risk. What could possibly go wrong?
David Forster
Head of Risk Proposition, Zurich Municipal
Public Finance Live 2019, Birmingham
Robots and Risk. What could possibly go
Public Finance Live 2019, Birmingham
wrong?
© Z
uri
ch
4
Robots and Risk | Agenda
• Introduction; we are not Luddites
• Some research
• Practical example
• Here’s one we made earlier
• Some final thoughts
© Z
uri
ch
5
4th Industrial Revolution | What is it?
“A fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres.”
- World Economic Forum
© Z
uri
ch
6
4th Industrial Revolution | Building blocks
BlockchainCognitive
Computing & Machine Learning
3D Printing Internet of Things
Data Collection, Storage & Analysis
Personal Mobile Devices
Virtual & Augmented
Reality
© Z
uri
ch
Any task, process or thing
you think of, can change.
7
© Z
uri
ch
8
4th Industrial Revolution | Facing up to risks
© Z
uri
ch
9
Automation vs. smart technology
‘Hydraulics’
‘Gardening’
VS.
© Z
uri
ch
10
4th Industrial Revolution | In a nutshell
© Z
uri
ch
11
4th Industrial Revolution | In a nutshell
© Z
uri
ch
12
4th Industrial Revolution | In a nutshell
© Z
uri
ch
13
4th Industrial Revolution | In a nutshell
© Z
uri
ch
What does it mean for people?
14
© Z
uri
ch
5 Billion Mobile Devices
- GSMA
20 Billion Other Things Connected to the Internet by 2020
- Gartner
15
4th Industrial Revolution | What does it mean for people?
© Z
uri
ch
16
© Z
uri
ch
17
iPotty
© Z
uri
ch
18
Human attention span?
© Z
uri
ch
19
“Artificial intelligence is like nuclear weapons and nuclear energy in danger & promise”
- Bill Gates, March 2019
© Z
uri
ch
What does it mean for you & society?
20
© Z
uri
ch
21
Bodegraven, Netherlands
© Z
uri
ch
22
How about paying with your face?
© Z
uri
ch
23
Some recent headlines
• Should the UK follow San Francisco in banning facial recognition technology?
• Billionaire George Soros: China's Use Of AI To Control Citizens Is A 'Mortal Threat‘.
• David Davis calls for a review in the UK.
• Embrace AI to reduce NHS accounting workloads.The use of AI in the NHS has huge potential in saving man-hours and focusing staff on more complex tasks, writes NHS Shared Business Services’ Stephen Sutcliffe.
• Hong Kong investor sues robo-adviser in potential landmark case about AI liability.
© Z
uri
ch
• 14% of jobs in developed are ‘highly automatable’
• 32% of jobs likely to experience significant changes
OECD, 2018
24
Could your job be at risk?
© Z
uri
ch
25
The sentient street
© Z
uri
ch
26
3D printing
© Z
uri
ch
Robot Dogs
27
© Z
uri
ch
28
If you like Francis Bacon…
© Z
uri
ch
29
“The time is now to prepare for the future of flight, Airbus says“
- Bloomberg, September July 2018
Automated travel
© Z
uri
ch
30
Driverless cars
© Z
uri
ch
31
Risk Impact
likelihood
Public Sector consideration
Cyber attacks / Reliance on technology• Staff awareness, training and embedded culture• Adequate security (hardware/software)
Fiscal impacts• Ability to deliver effective public services• Increased propensity to economic downturn
Climate change / Extreme weather• Awareness of changing flood risk dynamics• Right plans/procedures in place
Ageing population• M/L term budget planning • Ageing workforce H&S risks • Pensions liability
Large scale involuntary reverse migration
• Capacity planning • Infrastructure• Wider cross-collaboration with Regional Authorities
Impact of fourth Industrial Revolution
• Morale implications• Changing educational delivery• Worker awareness and training in usage
Risks | Public Sector
© Z
uri
ch
32
Current & potential uses in public services
Resource Allocation Decisions
Prevent & Predict Crime
Remote access to services, e.g.
teachers
Social Care Decisions
Chat Bots
Human Resource Management
Building Management
Driverless Vehicles
Workers Wellbeing
Planning Asset Maintenance
Intelligent Street Lights
Generate Income Remote
Monitoring of Service Users
Winter Maintenance
Traffic Flow
OptimiseProcesses, e.g.
Waste City Planning
Deliver Social Care
Predict Health Outcomes &
Needs
Understand Service Users
© Z
uri
ch
Which, if any, of these council services do you think should adopt Artificial Intelligence with the aim of making faster and more efficient decisions?
Unweighted base: All GB adults (2010)
13%
16%
9%
16%
27%
29%
38%
61%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Don't know
None of these
Children's Services (e.g. deciding when children should be taken into care/allocation of resources to high-risk children etc.)
Adult Services/ care of the elderly (e.g. determining the level of care/ helpwith caring through services such as intelligent monitoring of the elderly
etc.)
Back Office Services (e.g. using 'chatbots' to fulfill residents queries andpaperwork etc.)
Public Health (e.g. utilising computer systems to determine which areasshould be allocated more resources/ what areas of public health need more
support etc.)
Infrastructure Planning (e.g. road building and repair etc.)
Traffic Management (e.g. smart cameras and sensors to facilitate moreefficient traffic flow etc.)
© Z
uri
ch
Which, if any, of the following describe how you would feel about an AI system that makes decisions?
Unweighted base: All GB adults (2010)
14%
3%
12%
20%
32%
42%
45%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Don't know
Other
I like that it would be the fairest way
I like that it would be an objective decision
I don't like that it could make me feel like a number rather than a person
I don't like that the process would lack emotional reasoning
I don't like that a human wouldn't be involved in making decisions about me
© Z
uri
ch
Which ONE, if any, of the following statements BEST describes whether or not you think public sector organisations should adopt AI?
Unweighted base: All GB adults (2010)
15%
6%
8%
49%
22%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Don't know
None of these
I think public sector organisations should adopt AI as quickly as possible/when it's available
I think public sector organisations should wait until AI is better understoodbefore adopting it, but should adopt it in the future
I don't think public sector organisations should ever adopt AI
© Z
uri
ch
36
Who is working with these to provide remote support?
© Z
uri
ch
Exercise
37
© Z
uri
ch
Here’s one I made earlier…
38
© Z
uri
ch
39
Possible risk implications
Physical world risks remain
Skills & Capacity
Who’s responsible for failures?
Accountability
Do decision makers understand the
technology?
‘Dumb vs Intelligent’ technology
Impact on employee wellbeing ,rights and
employment.
Government Regulation(or lack of)
Ownership vs access to technology.
Paradox of Automation
‘Black Box’ 3rd party technology
Ethical use of algorithms & data
Impact on inequality/human
rights
Humans ability to supervise technology
Cyber risks, data loss & fraud
Commercial risks /contract
management
Bricks and mortar vs ‘born digital’
services.Business interruption
‘Open vs closed’ governance.
Democratic oversight/capability
Risk management skill sets
© Z
uri
ch
40
Human interventions (emerging risk group)
© Z
uri
ch
41
© Z
uri
ch
42
© Z
uri
ch
Things go wrong…
43
NHS Breast cancer screening: 450,000 women missed.
Uber driverless car: first fatality.
Robot heart surgeon kills patient.
© Z
uri
ch
44
What’s next? | For the organisation
• How does risk feature in your digital strategy? Do you have a register of projects?
• Who is accountable for digital risks in your organisation?
• Are your risk, compliance & governance frameworks future proof?
• Who has oversight of ethics and morality? Who decides what this means in your organisation?
© Z
uri
ch
45
What’s next? | For specific projects
• Has the project been risk assessed? How will ongoing risks be managed once the project is live?
• Has there been a GDPR/DPA compliance assessment?
• Does the software provide product liability insurance?
• What risks have been retained or transferred to 3rd parties?
• What will your insurer cover you for? What is the plan B if it fails?
