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© OECD/IEA 2012
Global transport outlook to 2050
John Dulac
Energy Analyst, Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
Targets and scenarios for a low-carbon transport sector
© OECD/IEA 2012
Content
IEA Mobility Model (MoMo)
ETP 2012 analysis
Transport sector outlooks
CO2 mitigation potential
Costing out the scenarios
Transport technology outlooks and needs
Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI)
Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)
Mobility modeling
Conclusions
© OECD/IEA 2012
IEA Mobility Model (MoMo)
Simulation of global transport energy use, emissions and materials use and costs Multiple scenarios and projections to 2050 Applied hypotheses on GDP and population growth, travel
demand, vehicle technologies and fuel shares, techno-economic parametres (e.g. fuel economy and cost)
29 regions (continued expansion)
Significant data on technologies and fuel pathways
full evaluation of GHG emissions life cycle cost valuation: vehicles, fuels, infrastructure section on material requirements for LDV manufacturing
© OECD/IEA 2012
Coverage of transport modes
2-3 wheelers
Light duty vehicles internal combustion
hybrids / plug-in hybrids
fuel cell vehicles
electric vehicles
Heavy duty vehicles passenger (minibuses, buses, BRT and
intercity buses)
freight (medium and heavy trucks)
Rail passenger and freight
HSR (added in 2012)
Air / Water transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012
Scenarios to 2050
6°C (6DS): business-as-usual scenario, no further uptake of energy/climate policy
4°C (4DS): expected ‘normal’ scenario, incorporating announced policies
2°C (2DS): pathways to a clean energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Historic trends
World transport energy use has doubled in past 30 years
Light-duty vehicles continue to drive growth, while road freight and air travel also increased rapidly in last decade.
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Other
World aviation bunkers
Domestic aviation
World marine bunkers
Domestic navigation
Rail
Heavy vehicles
Light-duty vehicles
2-,3- and 4-wheelers
Transport share of oil use
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 transport outlook to 2050
Passenger and freight travel by mode in the ETP 6DS/4DS
With no dedicated policies, road travel likely to double by 2050, with most growth coming from passenger light-duty vehicles in developing countries.
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Air
Rail
Road freight
Buses
2/3 wheelers
Passenger LDV
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 transport outlook to 2050
Transport energy use by mode in the ETP scenarios
Energy use could increase as much as 70% by 2050 if no further policies are adopted in support of efficiency, alternative vehicles/fuels and modal shifting.
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4DS 6DS 4DS Avoid/Shifts Improve 2DS
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Road
Rail
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© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 transport outlook to 2050
An ‘avoid, shift and improve’ approach is the most cost effective to reach 2DS objectives
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GtC
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6DS
Efficient vehicles
Low-carbon fuels
Shifts
Avoid
2DS
4DS
Efficient vehicles and alternative fuels key to achieve 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mitigation strategies cost comparison
Global transport expenditure estimates to 2050
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4DS Improve Avoid / Shift 2DS
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llio
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Rail
Roadway and parking
Other fuels
Oil
Other vehicles
Passenger LDVs
The 2DS ‘avoid, shift and improve’ scenario has potential to reduce global transport expenditures by as much as USD 70 trillion (~15% over 4DS).
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Technologies for transport
Outlooks, needs and IEA initiatives
© OECD/IEA 2012
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NGV
LPG
Full hybrid
FFVs
Transport technologies in the 2DS
Share of alternative vehicle technologies in 2010
Alternative vehicles still represent a small share of total LDV stocks.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Transport technologies in the 2DS
Share of alternative LDV sales in 2050 (4DS vs Improve)
In order to reach 2DS objectives, sales of non-conventional vehicles and fuels need to increase rapidly beyond 2015.
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4DS
Gasoline Diesel CNG/LPG Gasoline hybrid Diesel hybrid Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline Electricity FCEV
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Improve case
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GFEI: status and potentials
Fuel economy readiness index status
text
© OECD/IEA 2012
GFEI: status and potentials
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0km
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70 000 000 Sales 2011
Significant fuel economy improvement if policies are in place
Size shift vs. technology evolution moderates Non-OECD improvement
Growth of markets with worse fuel economy affects global trend
© OECD/IEA 2012
GFEI: status and potentials
Fuel economy potentials and costs
© OECD/IEA 2012
EVI: status and outlook
Electric vehicles: realities and targets
EV vehicle sales need to double every year to reach 2020 targets.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mobility trends and potential
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OEC
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dSt
ate
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pkm
Air
Rail
Buses
Mini-buses
Passenger light trucks
Passenger cars
3- and 4-wheelers
2-wheelers
Passenger mode share estimates (2009)
Modal data is limited in most countries but is critical to analysis of transport sector trends and potentials.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mobility trends and potential
Modal shares in the ETP 2012 ‘Avoid/Shift’ analysis
ETP ‘Avoid/Shift ’ analysis demonstrates the potential to reduce energy and emissions to 2050 through marginal changes in travel.
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Trill
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pkm
Air
Rail
Buses
Mini-buses
Passenger light trucks
Cars
3-wheelers
2-wheelers
© OECD/IEA 2012
Infrastructure: technical solutions?
Average expected road-occupancy levels (national level)
Travel under the 4DS and 2DS is expected to increase road occupancy levels. Technologies could play a role in improving travel flows – and consequently reduce energy losses, emissions and social costs.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Looking forward
Technical questions and areas of needed research
© OECD/IEA 2012
Next steps and R&D needs
Improved mobility requires understanding of mobility needs:
How do/will/could people and goods move about?
How can efficiencies be improved?
How can technology assist travel choices and movement?
How will urban context change transport needs?
Transport system is complex:
One solution not a panacea – multiple approaches needed: infrastructure/technology/policy interface
Need to think outside the box from within the box – define solutions through innovation for context
© OECD/IEA 2012
Conclusions
‘Avoid, shift and improve’ approach most cost effective to achieve 2DS objectives
Significant energy savings and emissions reduction possible through fuel economy improvement. Learning curves, costs and availability are key.
Modal shifts can play large role in improving transport sector (costs, energy, emissions, time, etc)
Technology priorities should address how to move people and goods efficiently in an energy-, time- and budget- constrained world
