John ByrneApril 26, 2010

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

A CLIMATE POLICY CHALLENGE

ACTING BEYOND THE ELECTION – MEDIA CYCLE

http://imagebingo.naver.com/album/image_view.htm?user_id=ehfeka114&board_no=27788&nid=7665

Modernized AtmosphereModernized Atmosphere

HCFC-22 CF4

Pre-industrial ConcentrationPre-industrial Concentration

Concentration in 2009Concentration in 2009

Rate of ConcentrationChange*

Rate of ConcentrationChange*Atmospheric lifetime (years)Atmospheric lifetime (years)

1.5 ppmv/yr

CO2

~280 ppmv

390 ppmv

0.4 %/yr

50 - 200

CH4

~700 ppbv

1790 ppbv

10 ppbv/yr

0.6 %/yr

12

N2O

~275 ppbv

340 ppbv

0.8 ppbv/yr

0.25 %/yr

120

CFC-11

zero

260 pptv

0 pptv/yr

0 %/yr

50

zero

110 pptv

5 pptv/yr

5 %/yr

12

zero

70 pptv

1.2 pptv/yr

2 %/yr

50,000

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

* The growth rates of CO2, CH4, and N2O are averaged over 25 years beginning in 1984; halocarbon growth rates are based on recent years.

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy

Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal)U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal)

Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal)U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal)

U.S

. En

erg

y P

ric

e In

cre

as

esU

.S. E

ne

rgy

Pri

ce

Incr

ea

ses

75%75%

125%125%

150%150%

175%175%

200%200%

225%225%

250%250%

275%275%

300%300%

20002000 20022002 20042004 20062006 20082008 20102010 20122012 20142014 20162016 20182018 20202020

NGNG

GasolineGasoline

Heating OilHeating Oil

ElectricityElectricity

Yr 2000Yr 2000PricePrice

Source: U.S. EIA database and Annual Energy Outlook (2009)

Energy Expenditures as % of US GDPEnergy Expenditures as % of US GDP

9.8% of GDP in 2008Highest in 25 yrs

9.8% of GDP in 2008Highest in 25 yrs

Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook, March 2009

Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy

Coal NG Oil Nuclear Large Hydro Renewables Needed E-E & Conservation

MORE US RENEWABLES…alone…WILL NOT REALIZE 60% LESSMORE US RENEWABLES…alone…WILL NOT REALIZE 60% LESS

CO2 Emissions as a % of US 1990 LevelsCO2 Emissions as a % of US 1990 LevelsAll EnergyAll EnergyElectricityElectricity

3,789 TWh3,789 TWh

51.9%

15.9%2.9%

19.9%

7.3%

2.1%

5,201 TWh5,201 TWh

14.8%

7,087 TWh7,087 TWh

42.3%

123%123%126%126%

20002000

104%104%123%123%

20252025

50%50%

128%128%

20502050

Assumptions: 1) US renewables grow at 2X the experience rate of Germany (currently the fastest in the world); 2) phaseout all coal power plants by 2050; 3) US electricity demand grows at 2% per yr (EIA); 4) energy efficiency improvement of 0.9%/yr (EIA).

Assumptions: 1) US renewables grow at 2X the experience rate of Germany (currently the fastest in the world); 2) phaseout all coal power plants by 2050; 3) US electricity demand grows at 2% per yr (EIA); 4) energy efficiency improvement of 0.9%/yr (EIA).

21.2%1.7%

4.1%

30.6%9.6%

44.6%

4.8%0.5%

5.6%

20.1%

24% of Supply

24% of Supply

53% of Supply

53% of Supply

IPCC Estimate of Needed Cut

Delawareans use 45% more electricity than

Californians

United StatesCaliforniaDelaware

Per capita residential electricity use 1960-2007

EIA, 2009 State Energy Data System (SEDS); U.S. Census Bureau, 2008, 2000, 1990

US ENERGY OBESITY

--2525

--1515

--55

55

1515

2525

Needed Emission Reductions

Other*Renewable EnergySustainable Land Use & Transport PlanningElectric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements

Non-Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements

New Emissions Above 1990

* Other includes 1.1 Gt CO2-e reduced through several options including: carbon capture & storage; waste & wastewater management; new nuclear power plant designs.

Source: IPCC 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, WG III Report, Mitigation of Climate Change.

Supporting Sources: Olivier et al 2005 & 2006; WBCSD 2004.

* Other includes 1.1 Gt CO2-e reduced through several options including: carbon capture & storage; waste & wastewater management; new nuclear power plant designs.

Source: IPCC 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, WG III Report, Mitigation of Climate Change.

Supporting Sources: Olivier et al 2005 & 2006; WBCSD 2004.

2.5 (10%)2.5 (10%)

GT

CO

2-e

GT

CO

2-e

7.2 (30%)7.2 (30%)4.24.2

7.87.8 12.0(51%) 12.0(51%)

19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020 20252025 20302030

23.723.7

IPCC Assessment of Principal Mitigation Options IPCC Assessment of Principal Mitigation Options

2.0 ( 9%)2.0 ( 9%)

Delaware’s SEU Cited as a National Model

What can we do todayIn Delaware, a “Sustainable Energy Utility” can meet energy needs, not by building new power plants but by weatherizing homes [and installing solar panels]…creating a market…for the verifiable energy savings they produce.

Testimony of John D. Podesta before Vice President Biden's Middle Class Task Force February 27, 2009

State and Local Governments Innovate to Cut Energy Waste February 11, 2010

An alternative plan

Delaware's Sustainable Energy Utility fits into a larger national movement away from the traditional way of doing programs with utilities in charge. The alternative plan…is to reshape the business: Make it possible…to profit from efficiency, not just from selling electrons… The model also works for renewable energy.

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

Shifting from the Economics of Obesity to SustainabilityFebruary 22, 2010

Clean energy, green jobs

The SEU is uniquely suited to create sustainable jobs.  Investments in onsite renewables can produce 2-5 times as many new, permanent jobs as those in conventional energy. Invest-ments in energy efficiency and conservation could generate 3-4 times as many new jobs.

JOBS: The Clean Technology Advantage

Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE. 2008. American Solar Energy Society (ASES). Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable Energy. REPP. 2001. London School of Economics (LSE) and the information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF). The UK’s Digital Road to Recovery. 2009. ICT job creation does not include ‘network effects.’

Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested

ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION 12-15

Solar Electric (PV) 15.7

COAL PLANTS 4

RENEWABLE ENERGY 10-19

Smart/Green Buildings 14.7

Air Insulation 12.0

Solar Thermal 19.0

Wind 11.9

Geothermal 10.5

INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY 18-26

High-Speed Broadband 26.4

Smart Grid 21.7

Intelligent Transport 17.7

& Smart

^

• RGGI CARBON AUCTION PROCEEDS

• EERS – 15% Cut in Electric Sales by 2015

• RPS – 20% of Electric Sales from REs by 2019

• ARRA FUNDS – Rebates & Loans

• GREEN ENERGY SAVNGS BOND

SEU IMPACTS 8 MOS. ~ $27 m5 YRS. > $85 m10 YRS. > $130 m

TTOP OP DDOWNOWN

TTARGETSARGETS

AA F FOREWORD FOR OREWORD FOR AACTIONCTION

BBOTTOM OTTOM UUP P

SSOUSTAINABILITYOUSTAINABILITY