Joe Magruder, MSW Emily Putnam-Hornstein, MSW Barbara Needell, MSW PhD

When permanency remains elusive:A longitudinal examination of the early foster care experiences of youth at risk of emancipating

Joe Magruder, MSWEmily Putnam-Hornstein, MSWBarbara Needell, MSW PhD Center for Social Services ResearchSchool of Social WelfareUniversity of California at Berkeley

The California Child Welfare Performance Indicators Project is supported by the California Department of

Social Services and the Stuart Foundation

Building on the CFSR…

Children and Family Services Review (CFSR) C3.3: Of all children in foster care during the

year who were either discharged to emancipation or turned 18 while still in care, what percent had been in foster care for 3 years or longer?

The sample used for this analysis allows us to examine the early foster care experiences of those “at risk” of emancipating, for whom permanency was clearly not achieved by their 17th birthday, regardless of the length of the last spell in care.

Overview

Using California’s administrative child welfare database, we present a sample of youth who were born in 1988, entered care for the first time prior to turning 14, and were in care on their 17th birthday.

We are unable to follow all children who were born in 1988 because of data limitations (we do not have fully longitudinal data)

Sample

Birth

1988 2005

In Foster Care at age 17

2002

First Entry to Foster

Care

Data on children who first entered child welfare supervised care before age 14 and were in care at age 17 (child welfare or probation supervised) were drawn from a longitudinal extract of the California Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS)

At risk of emancipating (regardless of

actual permanency

outcome)

Entry to foster care before age 14 (regardless of the

length of the last episode)

14th Birthday

Inclusionary Criteria

X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Not in study sample

1988 2006

Birth 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Exit

X X X X X X X X X X

X X X X X X X X X X X X X

X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Age

Characteristics2005 Performance: C3.3 Between July 2005 and July 2006: approximately

5,121* youth emancipated or turned age 18 while still in care (60% had been in care 3+ years)

Snapshot View July 2005: 5,131* 17-year olds in care

Our Sample (born in 1988, age 17 in care in 2005, first entry before age 14)

3,615 youth meet our sample criteria Roughly 70% of all 17-year olds in care in 2005

(e.g., 70% of the snapshot sample) first entered care prior to age 14

*Includes only youth currently under child welfare supervision

An “Average” youth in this study sample…

First entry at 6.9 years of age Over 7 years (aggregate) spent in

out-of-home care Approximately 5 different

placements over the course of two separate episodes in care

46% of life through age 17 spent in out-of-home care

CA Black Child Pop.= 6% CA Black Out-of-Home Pop. = 29%

Number of youth in sample who first entered as infants is roughly twice that of entries at every other age

Last removal…higher than usual “other” due to children removed for “Law Violation”.

Other exits translate into roughly 200 AWOLs, 75 incarcerations and a number of other seemingly non-permanent exits.

The average youth spent 23% of life through age 17 in a primary out-of-home placement.

More than half of youth have more than one spell in care

73% of the youth in this sample who are last supervised by probation are male.

Removal Reason (problematic)

1977

2297

392 364

149 155 113

527

993

281

050

01,

000

1,50

02,

000

2,50

0

First Last First Last First Last First Last First Last

First vs. Last Reason for Removal

Neglect Physical Sexual Other Missing

Neglect 0.20Physical Abuse 0.20Sexual Abuse 0.25Other 0.04*Missings excluded.

Correlation Coefficients*

01

00

20

03

00

40

05

00

Ent

ry C

ount

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Age

Black Proportion of Total

01

00

20

03

00

40

05

00

Ent

ry C

ount

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Age

Hispanic Proportion of Total

01

00

20

03

00

40

05

00

Ent

ry C

ount

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Age

White Proportion of Total0

10

02

00

30

04

00

50

0E

ntry

Cou

nt

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Age

Total

Age at First Entry (N=3,615)

Median: 6.9 yrs

Median: 8.2 yrs

Median: 8.5 yrs

Median: 4.0 yrs

Episodes / Spells in Care

1.44

1.45

1.61

1.76

1.81

1.79

2.21

2.28

1 1.5 2 2.5

Mean Spell Count

13-14yrs

11-12yrs

9-10yrs

7-8yrs

5-6yrs

3-4yrs

1-2yrs

<1yr

*No restrictions on days in care.

by Age at EntryAverage Number of Spells in Out-of-Home Care

Number of Placements

12

34

56

7P

lace

men

t Cou

nt

<1yr 1-2yrs 3-4yrs 5-6yrs 7-8yrs 9-10yrs 11-12yrs 13-14yrs

Number of Placements by Age at First Entry

Mean Median

Number of Placements (by longest placement at age 17)

12

34

56

78

9M

edia

n P

lace

men

t Cou

nt


(n=1,375)Predominant Placement at Age 17, Foster

12

34

56

78

9M

edia

n P

lace

men

t Cou

nt


(n=574)Predominant Placement at Age 17, Group

12

34

56

78

9M

edia

n P

lace

men

t Cou

nt


(n=317)Predominant Placement at Age 17, Guardian

12

34

56

78

9M

edia

n P

lace

men

t Cou

nt


(n=1,263)Predominant Placement at Age 17, Kin

Reunific

Guardian

Other

Adoption

Emancipa

Other

Guardian

Foster

Group

Kinship

Male

Female

Black

Asian/PI

WhiteHispanic

Native A

3040

5060

Per

cent

Race Gender Placement Exit

by race/ethnicity, gender, longest placement type, and final exitMedian Percentage of Life Spent in Care at Age 17

(1,467)

(44)

(1,069)(962)

(73)

(1,789)

(1,826)

(317)

(1,263)

(1,375)

(86)

(574)

(81)

(403)

(79)

(300)

(2,502)

Life in Out-of-Home Care for this sample…

01

00

20

00

10

02

00

01

00

20

0

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

<1yr 1-2yrs 3-4yrs

5-6yrs 7-8yrs 9-10yrs

11-12yrs 13-14yrs Total

Fre

quen

cy

Proportion of Life in CareGraphs by Age Categories

by Age at First EntryProportion of Life at Age 17 Spent in Out-of-Home Care

Life in Out-of-Home Care for this sample…

Exits from Care…

80%

11%

9%

69%

16%

15%

Female (n=1,789) Male (n=1,826)

Emancipated Permanency Other

by Gender (N=3,615)Final Exits:

83%

10%

7%

78%

12%

11%

Female (n=1,693) Male (n=1,561)

Emancipated Permanency Other

Probation cases excluded.

by Gender (N=3,254)Final Exits:

Racial Demographics (sample summary) 41% of the sample is Black (Black children are

roughly 6% of the CA pop) 76% (367) of youth who entered as infants were

Black 25% of Black children had entered as infants, but only 7%

of Hispanic and 4% of White children

The median age at entry for Black children was 4.0 years vs. 6.9 years for children of all other races

Black children in this sample had spent roughly 60% of their lives in out-of-home care by the age of 17 Black children in this sample spent an average of just over

10 years in care vs. 7.9 years for children of all other races

Age Demographics (sample summary)

The median age at entry was 6.9 years Youth in our sample were more likely to

have first entered care as infants than at any other age

Youth who entered during infancy proceeded to spend the vast majority of their lives in out of home care (mean=83%, median=96%) Roughly 60% of this time was spent in a

primary placement even though permanency was not achieved by the age of 17

Model Specification:

covariates of vector a is ),...,( :where 132 iii xxx

iiii xxxy 1313221 ...)}|1{Pr(logit

Model 1: y = probation supervised case (0/1)

Model 2: y = one spell in out-of-home care (0/1)

Model 3: y = final exit to permanency (0/1)

Things to keep in mind…

The experience of a later birth cohort would likely be very different…

We are not drawing conclusions regarding children who were born in 1988, entered care at a young age, but were not in care at age 17

A large proportion of children at risk of emancipating have a very long history with the child welfare system…

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]/UCB_CHILDWELFARE

and go to the Presentations tab

Thank you to our colleagues at the Center for Social Services Research, the California

Department of Social Services, and the Stuart Foundation

Documents

Joe Magruder, MSW Emily Putnam-Hornstein, MSW Barbara Needell, MSW PhD