Job Prospects, Skill Shortages and Job Outlook

CEET Annual Conference

Friday 28 October 2005

Labour Market Strategies Group (LMSG)

Denis Hart

Overview of presentation

Five areas of discussion:

• Industry drivers of jobs growth

• Occupational employment trends

• Assessing job prospects for occupations

• Skill shortages and workforce ageing

• Job Outlook online - 2005 update

Industry employment projections

• Starting point for job prospects: Monash model employment forecasts for industries

• Recent employment trends: examine changes over long/medium and short term (DEWR trend data)

• Most ‘employment action’ in service industries: not modelled in as much detail as manufacturing

• Review Monash forecasts and prepare DEWR projections for around 160 industries (‘anchored’ by previous DEWR projections and Monash forecasts)

• DEWR industry employment projections are put into Monash model (new set of occupational projections)

Employment growth by industry 5 years to Aug 05 (‘000)

223.8

171.7

161.9

117.2

109.5

75.5

56.1

56.1

45.7

45.4

42.1

39.7

15.5

8.0

-2.5

-77.6

-79.5

-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250

Retail Trade

Construction

Health & Community Services

Property and Business Services

Government Administration

Education

Personal and Other Services

Cultural and Recreation Services

Finance and Insurance

Mining

Accommodation, Cafes/Restaurants

Transport and Storage

Electricity, Gas and Water

Communication Services

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Agriculture, Forestry/Fishing

Industry employment drivers

• Five key industries are expected to contribute more than four in five new jobs in the five years to 2009-10

• Strong growth is expected to continue for Property and Business Services and Health and Community Services (the two largest sources of new jobs)

• Easing in growth is projected for Retail and, more so, Construction, while continuing job gains are projected for Accommodation, Cafes/Restaurants

• Manufacturing employment is expected to fall, and there may be some pick-up for Agriculture

Industry drivers of jobs growthto 2009-10

Property and Business Services23%

Health & Community Services21%

Retail Trade21%

Construction10%

Accommodation, Cafes/Restaurants

8%

Personal and Other Services5%

Cultural and Recreation Services

4%

Education4%

Other industries4%

A tale of two industries

30.2

20.7

8.4

41.5

0.1

36.7

46.1

32.1

-3.0

55.4

22.9

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May-95 May-96 May-97 May-98 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

Annual change '000 (LHS)

Employment '000 (RHS)

1.5

-3.2

26.2

-32.6

-45.6

73.9

-38.4

-1.1

0.2

-6.9-10.4

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

May-95 May-96 May-97 May-98 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05

1040

1050

1060

1070

1080

1090

1100

1110

1120

1130

1140

1150

Annual change '000 (LHS)

Employment '000 (RHS)

Health and Community Services

Manufacturing

Employment growth by skill level (Aug 95 = 100)

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

Aug-95 Aug-96 Aug-97 Aug-98 Aug-99 Aug-00 Aug-01 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05

Associate Professionals

Professionals

Elementary Clerical, Sales and Service

Tradespersons

Labourers

Occupational employment projections

• Examine Monash model forecasts (including ‘DEWR’ version), and actual employment growth trends

• Projections are ‘anchored’ by the Monash model forecasts and our previous projections (2000 to 2004)

• Factors considered: recent/historical employment growth, whether occupation is in growth industries, vacancy trends and qualitative information on occupations (eg new technology, structural change, changes in work organisation)

• Employment projections are ‘reconciled’ and converted into our occupational structure

• Prepare quantitative projections, but ‘publish’ decile ratings in Job Outlook (with guide as to range of growth rates)

Occupations with largest future job growth 5 years to 2009-10 (‘000)

83.0

35.4

33.2

29.9

26.7

24.6

21.7

18.2

18.0

17.3

17.0

15.6

14.2

13.8

13.7

11.7

11.3

11.2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Sales Assistants

Office Assistants/Off ice Managers

Computing Professionals

General Clerks

Project & Program Administrators

Accountants

Registered Nurses

Receptionists

Sales and Marketing Managers

Checkout Operators and Cashiers

Child Care Workers

Bookkeepers

Waiters

Inquiry and Admissions Clerks

Financial Dealers and Brokers

Aged and Disabled Carers

Nurses Aides/Personal Care Assistants

Chefs

Projected job growth - selected Trades (% pa to 2009-10)

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

General/Landscape Gardeners

Floor Finishers

Boat Builders and Shipw rights

Aircraft Maintenance Engineers

Refrigeration/Aircon Mechanics

Hairdressers

Bakers and Pastrycooks

Cooks

Electricians

Plumbers

Painters and Decorators

Carpenters and Joiners

Bricklayers

Boilermakers and Welders

Automotive Electricians

JOB PROSPECTS• Projected employment growth - next five years

• Recent/historical employment trends (up to ten years)

• Whether the occupation is employed in growth industries

• Unemployment rate for the occupation

• Vacancy trends and graduate employment outcomes

• Whether there are skill shortages and workforce ageing

• Job turnover - workers leaving the occupation (job opportunities for new workers) and total vacancies

• Expected occupational developments - structural change and the impact of technology, including new products

• Prospects ratings for occupations: very good, good, above average, average and limited

Key indicators – Sales Assistants (graph)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Employment size

Full-time share

Full-time earnings

Unemployment

10 year growth

5 year growth

2 year growth

Future growth

In growth industries?

J ob turnover

Vacancy level

J ob prospects

Key indicators - Sales Assistants

Sales AssistantsEmployment Growth

17.9

6.2

11.1

4.5

0

5

10

15

20

Sales Assistants All Occupations

5 Years2 Years

%

The graph shows employment growth (per cent) over the past five years and two years for this occupation,

compared with all occupations.

409 406 392 405 418 454 491 499 524 525 511 533 541 567 585 602

0

200

400

600

800

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Sales Assistants

000's

Employment Level

The graph shows the employment level ('000) for this occupation for

February, 1990 to 2005

Jobs with good prospectsAccountantBookkeepersBricklayersCabinetmakersChefs and CooksCustomer Service ManagersDentistsFinance ManagersFinancial Dealers/ BrokersForklift DriversGeneral/Landscape GardenersGeneral Medical PractitionersHairdressers

Human Resource ProfessionalsLegal ProfessionalsMotor MechanicsOccupational Therapists Office Assistants/ManagersPharmacistsPhysiotherapistsPolicy AnalystsProject/Program AdministratorsReceptionistsSales AssistantsSecurity Officers/GuardsWaiters

Skill shortages in AustraliaWhere are the skill shortages?• Shortages are widespread in the trades: eg automotive, chefs

and cooks, engineering, electrical and (some) construction trades• For professionals, skill shortages are mainly evident for nurses

and health specialists (eg pharmacist, physiotherapist), child care workers, accountants and civil engineers

Why do skill shortages matter?• Skill shortages can impede industry growth and innovation

(and cause upward pressure on wages) and affect the reliability and quality of services (eg health services)

Information on skill shortages can:• Help to understand the nature and causes of skill shortages,

develop industry-led and employment service strategies, guide education planning and target skilled migration

Ageing of the workforce % aged 45 years and over

15.7

16.6

15.6

19.1

17.4

19.4

22.0

22.4

25.4

20.3

31.1

35.0

26.8

6.3

6.2

9.1

7.6

11.7

11.5

12.2

12.9

10.9

17.8

13.5

10.8

20.8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Chefs

Child Care Workers

Motor Mechanics

Electricians

Carpenters and Joiners

Accountants

ALL O CCUPATIO NS

Dentist

Metal Fitters/Machinists

Civil Engineers

Registered Nurses

Secondary School Teachers

General MedicalPractitioners

45-54

55 and over

Occupational ‘Wastage’

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

19-23 24-28 29-33 34-38 39-48 49+ Total

Age

%

Home Occupations Related Occupations Unrelated Occupations Unemployed Not in the Labour Force

Job Outlook - 2005 update• Job Outlook has 12 graphs on characteristics, trends

and prospects for each occupation and an overview page (around 5,000 graphs for all occupations)

• In addition to a ‘colour change’ and updating, there is a new graph showing employment growth by gender and full-time/part-time in the past few years)

• The median age in years has been added to the age profile graph

• Sample graphs are presented in the following slides and a brochure with sample graphs is available

• Available @ jobsearch.gov.au/joboutlook

Sales Assistants - overview

Job Outlook - navigation• The right-side navigation for Job Outlook (overview

page) has valuable links for each occupation:

Current vacancies at the local level (on AJS)Education and training courses for each region (on Australian Training)In-depth occupational information - O*Net from the United States (on Job Explorer)

• There are also links to information on jobs with good prospects, skill shortages and the educational profile`

• Hyperlinks can be used to deep link to occupations http://jobsearch.gov.au/joboutlook/default.aspx?PageId=AscoDesc&AscoCode=8211