JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH

Modelling Energy Storage Demand

„Energy Storages for Renewable Energy as Key Technology for

Future Energy Systems“

Karl-Peter Felberbauer

IEA-CERT WorkshopEnergy Storage Issues and Opportunities

15th February 2011, Paris

2

Modelling Energy System Austria

AngebotVerbrauch

Supply

Fossil

&

RES

Consumption

Energy

Market

Discontinuos

supply

Continuous basic supply

meets base & mid-consumption

Energy

Storagesfor

hours

days,

weeks and

months

Discontinuous

consumption

Present

Situation

2009

Present

Situation

2009

Source: JOANNEUM RESEARCH

Future

Scenarios

Future

Scenarios

3

Outline

Research Focus

Conclusion

Modelling Energy

System Austria

100 % RES

Modelling

Storage Demand

4

Outline

Research Focus

Conclusion

Modelling Energy

System Austria

100 % RES

Modelling

Storage Demand

6

Research Focus

Recommendations for stakeholders (industry, government & research) in Austria

Identification of the most interesting energy storagesoptions for Austria

Modelling Storage Demand in AustriaElectricity, Heat, Fuels (solid, liquid, gaseous)

Present & Future situation

Assessment

Technical Economical Environmental

Energy Storages Technologies & Systems

State of the art & characteristics Application systems & integration

7

Outline

Research Focus

Conclusion

Modelling Energy

System Austria

100 % RES

Modelling

Storage Demand

8

Modelling Energy System Austria I

Periods• Present: 2009

• Future: 2025/2050

Possiblescenarios

• More RES (e.g. „Scenario 100% RES“)

• More energy efficiency

• Consumer behaviour change

• Smart Grids(Demand Side Management, Supply Side Management,..)

Results

• Identify most interessting energy storages options for 2025/2050

9

Modelling Energy System Austria II

Demand of energy services

Austria 2009 = 2050Useful energy demand

e.g. vehicle, heat

Final energy:

demand = supply

e.g. heating oil, electricity

Primary energy supply

e.g. oil, natural gas,

hydro power, wind energy

Based on

Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

10

Useful Energy Demandin „Scenario 2050: 100 % RES“

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Energy System Austria 2009 Energy System Austria 2050

Usefu

l E

nerg

y D

em

an

d

[PJ/a

]

light, IT

vehicles

space heating

process heating

mechanical work

633

416

Minus

~35%

11

Modelling Energy System Austria III

Demand of energy services

Austria 2009 = 2050Useful energy demand

e.g. vehicle, heat

Final energy:

demand = supply

e.g. heating oil, electricity

Primary energy supply

e.g. oil, natural gas,

hydro power, wind energy

Based on

Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

12

Primary Energy Supplyin „Scenario 2050: 100 % RES“

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Energiesystem Austria 2009 Energiesystem Austria 2050

Pri

mar

y En

erg

yD

em

and

[PJ

/a]

others (e.g. renewable heat)

wind & pv

hydro power

biomass

natural gas

oil

coal

1.353

632

Minus

~50%

13

Modelling Energy System Austria IV

Demand of energy services

Austria 2009 = 2050Useful energy demand

e.g. vehicle, heat

Final energy:

demand = supply

e.g. heating oil, electricity

Primary energy supply

e.g. oil, natural gas,

hydro power, wind energy

Based on

Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

14

Final Energy Demand Scenario 2050: 100 % RES

Total final energy demand 550 PJ/a (currently 1,060 PJ/a)

district heating (e.g. CHP)

10%

solid biomass 16%

liquid biomass9%

gaseous biomass3%

electricity45%

consumerside heat12%

hydrogen5%

15

Outline

Research Focus

Outlook

Modelling Energy

System Austria

100 % RES

Modelling

Storage Demand

16

Modelling Energy Storage Demand – Location of Storage

„supply-side

storage“

„consumer-side storage“Source: Fraunhofer AST

Supply

Consumption

17

Modelling Energy Storage Demand

Demand of energy services

Austria 2009 = 2050Useful energy demand

e.g. vehicle, heat

Final energy:

demand = supply

e.g. heating oil, electricity

Primary energy supply

e.g. oil, natural gas,

hydro power, wind energy

Based on

Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

Electricity

per hour

Heat

per season

Fuels

per month

18

Example - Electricity Summerday2009

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

Lo

ad

Cu

rve –

Dem

an

d

[MW

]

Lo

ad

Cu

rve -

Su

pp

ly [

MW

]

Export

Hydro Power

Biomass

Wind Power

Storage Power Plants

Demand

Thermal Power Plants

PV

19

Example - Electricity Winterday2009

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

00:00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

Lo

ad

Cu

rve –

Dem

an

d

[MW

]

Lo

ad

Cu

rve -

Su

pp

ly [

MW

]

Import

ExportImport

Hydro Power

Biomass

Wind Power

Storage Power Plants

Demand

Thermal Power Plants

PV

Import

20

Example „Scenario 2050: 100 % RES“ - Electricity Summerday 2050

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

Lo

ad

Cu

rve

-D

em

an

d [

MW

]

Lo

ad

Cu

rve -

Su

pp

ly [

MW

]

Surplus Production

Storage Needs

for hours

Under Production

Storage Needs

for hours

Hydro Power

Biomass Thermal PowerWind Power

PV

Demand Demand

21

Example – „Scenario 2050: 100 % RES“ – Electricity Winter 2050

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

Lo

ad

Cu

rve

-D

em

an

d [

MW

]

Lo

ad

Cu

rve -

Su

pp

ly [

MW

]

Under Production

Storage Needs for days/months

Hydro Power

Biomass Thermal Power

Wind Power

PV

Demand

Demand

22

Modelling Energy System Austria & Storage Demand

Demand of energy services

Austria 2009 = 2050Useful energy demand

e.g. vehicle, heat

Final energy:

demand = supply

e.g. heating oil, electricity

Primary energy supply

e.g. oil, natural gas,

hydro power, wind energy

Based on

Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

Electricity

hourly resolution

Heat

quarterly resolution

Fuels

monthly resolution

23

Modelling Heat Energy Storage Demand – Solarheat I

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan-09 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Dec-09

Su

pp

ly–

So

larh

era

t[P

J]

Co

ns

um

pti

on

-S

pa

ce

He

ati

ng

[PJ

]

Consumption Space

Heating Supply Solarheat

24

Modelling Heat Energy Storage Demand – Solarheat II

For ½ Year

Energy Storage

Demand for Heat

25

Modelling Energy System Austria & Storage Demand

Demand of energy services

Austria 2009 = 2050Useful energy demand

e.g. vehicle, heat

Final energy:

demand = supply

e.g. heating oil, electricity

Primary energy supply

e.g. oil, natural gas,

hydro power, wind energy

Based on

Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

Electricity

hourly resolution

Heat

quarterly resolution

Fuels

monthly resolution

26

Modelling Fuel Energy Storage Demand -

Wood Pellets I

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec

Su

pp

ly-

Wo

od

Pelle

ts [

PJ]

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n-

Wo

od

Pelle

ts [

PJ]

Consumption Wood

Pellets

Supply Wood Pellets

27

Modelling Fuel Energy Storage Demand -

Wood Pellets II

For ½ Year

Energy Storage Demand

for Wood Pellets

28

Outline

Research Focus

Conclusion

Modelling Energy

System Austria

100 % RES

Modelling

Storage Demand

29

Conclusion

Pumped

Storage

Plants

State of the Art

Fuels as

Energy

Storage

Consumer Side

Supply Side

Future

Energy

Storages ?Hydrogen

Renewable Methane

…

Future

Energy

Storage

Demand

% RES in the System

Supply Side Actions

Consumer Side Actions

Reduction

of

Energy

Storage

Demand

Energy Efficiency

Demand Side Management

….

JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH

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