Jimmy AdegokeChidi Ibe

Peter Nwilo (Nigeria)Babajide Alo (Nigeria)

Mahmoud Ahmed (Egypt)Khaled Abutaleb (Egypt)

Lucinda Fairhurst (South Africa)Akin Abayomi (South Africa)

7th Lagaos State Summit on Climate Change April 22, 2015

African Coastal Cities Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Planning: Current Status & Future

Plans

Coastal Zone: Effects of Sea Level Rise

Physical/Ecological

Displacement of coastal lowlands and wetlands

Increased coastal erosion

Increased flooding (frequency and depth)

Salinization of surface & groundwater reservoirs

Socio-EconomicLoss of property & land

Increased flood risk/loss of life Damage to infrastructure

Loss of tourism, recreation, and coastal habitats

Impacts on agriculture & human health through decline in soil & water quality

The Africa Coastal Cities Project

A multi-country interdisciplinary project focusing on developing technical and institutional capacity for climate change adaptation and planning in Lagos (Nigeria), Cape Town (South Africa) and Port Said (Egypt) to Climate Change impacts.

A Nigeria Technical Cooperation Fund (NTCF) project managed jointly by the Directorate for Technical Cooperation in Africa (DTCA) Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Africa Development Bank (AfDB)

LL

Lagos, NigeriaPort Syed, Egypt

Cape Town, South Africa

The Africa Coastal Cities Project

Project Objectives

To quantify the vulnerabilities of coastal cities and communities in Africa to risks and hazards associated with climate change impacts including an understanding of the agents, mechanisms, and fate of the forcing factors.

To increase the planning, prioritizing and adaptation capacities of city planners, managers and community stakeholders for local climate change adaptation through knowledge sharing and technology transfer.

The Africa Coastal Cities ProjectExecuting Agencies LAGOS STATE MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, NIGERIA (in collaboration with Nigerian Institute for Oceanography & Marine Research (NIOMR); University of Lagos (UNILAG); University of Calabar (UNICAL); Office of the Surveyor General of the Federation (OSGOF)

CITY OF CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA (in collaboration with Marine Research Institute (MARE), University of Cape Town; The Council for Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR); Stellenbosch University

NATIONAL AUTHORITY FOR REMOTE SENSING AND SPACE SCIENCE (NARSS)& EGYPT ENVIRONMENT AFFAIRS AGENCY (EEAA)

ADONAI DIGITAL SYSTEMS LTD, NIGERIA (International Environmental Consulting Company with offices in Nigeria, South Africa and USA in collaboration with Center for Applied Environmental Research (CAER) University of Missouri Kansas City)

The Africa Coastal Cities ProjectPrincipal & Co-Investigators (Nigeria)

Professor Jimmy Adegoke, University of Missouri, USA/ADONAI DSL

Professor Chidi Ibe, Distinguished Scholar in Diaspora Program INRES UniPort

Professor Peter Nwilo, Surveyor General of the Federation/UniLag

Professor Babajide Alo, DVC Academics & Research, UniLag

Dr. (Mrs) Adesola Osigbona, Head, Dept. of Marine Science, UniLag

Professor Udeme Enin, Institute of Oceanography, UniCal

Maximus Ugwuoke, Lagos State Ministry of Environment

Dr. Emmanuel Ajao, Nigerian Institute for Oceanography & Marine Research (NIOMR)

The Africa Coastal Cities ProjectCo-Investigators (South Africa)

Ms. Lucinda FairhurstCoastal Adaptation

ExpertCape Town, South Africa

Professor Akin Abayomi, Division of Haematology, Stellenbosch University

Gregg Oelofse, Environmental Resource Management Department, City of Cape Town

Dr. babatunde Abiodun, University of Cate Town, South Africa

Dr. Francois Engelbrecht, Council for Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR)

The Africa Coastal Cities ProjectCo-Investigators (Egypt)

Prof. Mahmoud Ahmed, Marine Sciences Department , National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Science (NARSS)

Dr Khaled Abutaleb, NARSS Remote Sensing Expert,

Dr Mohamed Farouk, Egypt Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA), Cairo

Prof. Saad Zakaria, Suez Canal University, Head, Marine Sciences Department

Nigeria: Land Cover & Land Use Change along Coast of Lagos

Nigeria: Rates of Erosion along Coast of Lagos

Nigeria: Fish Spawning Grounds along the Coast of Nigeria

• The last decade has witnessed a tremendous and concerted efforts on the part of Lagos State Government to make Climate Change part of its developmental agenda. The determination of the State to mainstream Climate Change into its development stream has been amply demonstrated by its organisation of International Summits on Climate Change on an annual basis since 2009. The State Government has also established a Climate Change Department within the Ministry of Environment as the principal vehicle through which the State coordinates its three-prong Climate Change strategy of public enlightenment, mitigation and adaptation.

Nigeria: Lagos State Climate Change Planning & Adaption

• Low lying land in the Nile delta region is considered to be especially at risk from the effects of any sea level rise

• The coastal zone of Egypt suffers from a number of serious problems, excessive erosion rates, water logging, salt water intrusion, soil salinization, land use interference ecosystem pollution and degradation, and lack of appropriate institutional management systems.

• The Egyptian government has already taken steps towards reducing the impact of these problems.

Egypt: Coastal Impacts & Vulnerability

• With 1m of sea-level rise, Egypt is projected to experience an estimated 6% decrease in GDP resulting in the loss of 28,000 km2 of agricultural land (>13% of the national total), 25,000 km2 of urban area (>5% of the national total) and 24,000km2 of wetland loss (>6% of the national total).

• The eastern part of Lake Manzala (Port Said and the northern part of the Suez Canal) appears to subside at a rate of 4.5 mm yr-1 (Stanley & Warne 1993), faster than any other region along the Nile Delta coast. SLR is expected to cause a landward shift of the salt wedge and to increase the rate of saline seepage to the topsoil of the delta.

Why Port Said?

2km

Port breakwater

1°

Cape Town: Physical Processes

Cape Town: Socio-economic Impacts• Social impacts• Loss of the recreational and amenity value of

the coast• Aesthetic loss

• Economic impacts• Tourism and tourism derived revenue• Increased rates

• City burden:• Debris on the beach• Poor beach standards • Increasing maintenance costs to the City

• Strained relations between City and residents

Health Vulnerabilities peculiar to Africa and Southern Africa.

• 1. HIV/AIDS/TB & other parasitic burdens.2. Population explosion and rapid unplanned urbanization:

Poor sanitation and reduced quality of water. Heat effect.Crowding. Commuting and high level of sustained stress.Increase disease transmission

(HIV/TB/Viral/CHolera). Breakdown in civil obedience/drugs/alcohol/violence

Family dislocation and liberal lifestyle pattern.3. Worsening poverty index. % < the WHO poverty line. (MDG).4. Internal political instability, corruption & poor governance.5. Regional political instability + Movt of economic & political R. 6. Overstretched health infrastructure

Climate Health Impacts: Adaptation

• There are several ongoing projects in Southern Africa indicating a sensitivity to the concept of adverse long term effects of climate and environmental degradation. Corrective action in the right direction can only be embarked upon if there is an awareness of where current or impending aberrations are operating.

Water, rivers and marine:

Air Quality and emission control:

Housing, sanitation and town planning:

Health (Improved primary, public health and surveillance):

MDG and Climate Proofing