Jefferies Mission Resources Oil & Gas E&P Jan 2004 Greg Imbruce

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  • 7/30/2019 Jefferies Mission Resources Oil & Gas E&P Jan 2004 Greg Imbruce

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    Mission Resources Corp.

    Recommendation: Buy

    We recommend Mission Resources Corp.'s (MSSN) 10.875% Sr. Sub. Notes '07 as a BUY at 98(11.62% YTW,+916 bps)due to the attractive relative yield in todays market coupled with the following: Recent debt-for-equity swap that reduces debt by $10 mm in exchange for 4.5 million shares

    Approximately 1.4x asset coverage attributable to the 10.875s Adequate credit statistics (1.7x interest coverage and 4.5x leverage) that are expected to

    improve in response to: (i) the recent debt-for-equity swap that results in $1mm of annual interestcost savings; and (ii) higher EBITDA from lower unit costs and strong commodity prices, both inthe spot market as well as through the Company's hedging program

    The Company's financial performance is somewhat insulated from commodity prices with almost46% of the next 12-months production hedged at $4.50/MCFE

    Ample liquidity ($47 mm 4Q03E) as a result of asset sales completed during 4Q03 Stabilized production (63 MMCFE per day) from the Company's impressive year-to-date drilling

    program, despite the recent asset sales We are also encouraged by the recently announced asset sale of Mission's long-life, lower

    quality, high cost properties in East Texas at attractive valuations relative to the asset quality($5.38/BOE or $0.90/MCFE) - this sale in combination with new natgas finds of low unit cost

    reserves achieves the Company's goal toward high-grading its oil and gas reserves by focusingon optimizing unit economics

    Expectation that the Company will pursue the restructuring efforts management stated in its3Q03 conference call,"We are continuing our efforts to lower debt to a more appropriate level,and are investigating a number of opportunities, including a refinancing of our senior creditfacility, a refinancing of the remaining notes, and new equity or debt" - we estimate that acollection of these options could potentially reduce annual interest costs an additional $7-8 mmper year and enable the stock to trade in-line with comparables

    If the Company were successful in refinancing the Notes, outside of a tender, it would require theCompany to call the 10.875s at the current 103.625 call price - we expect, however, MSSNwould wait until the call price declines to 101.8125 on 4/1/04

    Impressive stock performance (+479% Year-over-Year) should enable the company to deleverusing equity or an equity-linked instrument - we expect that the stock will maintain support

    trading at 5.9x LTM EBITDA, a discount to its comparables, which trade at 6.6x (median) to11.1x (average)

    Solid M&A market which should will result in further consolidation of E&P companies during2004, which we expect will support MSSNs stock since management owns 5% of the equity andindicated that its intention is to restructure and then consider attractive exit strategies - this, ofcourse, would trigger the 101.0 change-of-control put

    XTO Energy Inc. (XTO) announced today that it will acquire 182 BCFE of East Texas andnorthern Louisiana properties for $249 mm or $1.37/MCFE this unit valuation is in-line with ourMSSN upside scenario of $1.32/MCFE, which results in a $3.41 NAV per share for MSSN

    EnergyExploration & Production

    High Yield ResearchJanuary 8, 2004

    Greg Imbruce800/937-5333

    [email protected]

    Mission Resources Corp. (MSSN)Restructuring Underway

    Amount Yrs. Coupon

    Seniority Coupon Maturity O/S $MM Rating Price CY YTW STW to Mty. Pmts. Recommendation

    Sr. Sub. Nts. (1) 10.875% 4/1/07 $117.4 Ca / NR 98.0% 11.10% 11.62% 916 3.4 4/1,10/1 Buy

    (1) Original $225 mm issue. On 3/23/03, MSSN acquired $97.6 mm in face amount for approx. $71.7 mm (73.5%), plus accrued interest.

    Additionally, on 12/18/03, MSSN announced it had acquired $10 MM of its 10.875% Sr. Sub. Nts. for 4.5 MM common shares.

  • 7/30/2019 Jefferies Mission Resources Oil & Gas E&P Jan 2004 Greg Imbruce

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    Exploration & ProductionCOMPANY DESCRIPTION:

    BOND SUMMARY:

    Jefco Amt O/S

    Description: Rec. Maturity $MM Moody's S&P Date Price Price CY YTW STW

    Sr. Sub. Nts. 10.875% '07 Buy 4/1/2007 $117.4 Ca NR 4/1/04 101.813 98.0 11.10% 11.62% 916

    COMPANY DATA: PROVED RESERVES:Company Mission Resources Corporation Total Proved

    Symbols (Equity/Debt) MSSN / MSSN Proved NatGas Undvlpd. US CN INTL

    Headquarters Houston, TX BCFE % % % % %

    Phone (713) 495-3000 1999 182.1 230.8 56% 21% 100% -- --

    Website www.missionresourcescorp.com 2000 145.1 189.6 39% 23% 100% -- --

    Currency USD (1.000 per USD) 2001 300.9 403.7 38% 25% 100% -- --Fiscal Year End December 2002 176.4 229.1 36% 23% 100% -- --

    Accounting Method Full Cost 2003 NA NA NA NA NA NA NAMost Recent Quarter 9/30/03 YTD Est. (3) 175.9 228.5 NA NA NA NA NA

    Number of Employees 90 FINDING COSTS-$/MCFE (99-03): RESERVE REPLACE (99-03):Auditor KPMG LLP Drilling $2.12 Drilling 57%Company Type Public Drilling + Revisions $8.17 Drilling + Revisions 15%

    Current Stock Price $2.36 (+4% YTD, +479% YOY) Acquisitions $0.78 Acquisitions 290%Shares Outstanding (MM) 28.0 (Incl. 12/04 Debt-for-Equity Swap) Drilling + Acquisitions $1.00 All Sources 305%MarketCap / Enterprise Value ($MM) $66 / $263 All Sources $1.14 Net Sources (After Sales) 142%

    Total Debt / Net Debt ($MM) $197 / $197 DRILLING SUCCESS (99-03): PRODUCING WELLS (2002):

    Net Asset Value (NAV) $1.57-$3.41/shr or $44-$96 MM Exploration 55% Gross Wells 2,521Stock Price / NAV 150%-69% Development 86% Net Wells 703Total Debt per MCFE (Dvlpd./Total) $1.12 / $0.86 Overall 80% Net Interest 28%Proved Reserves - BCFE @ 12/31/02 229 (23% PUDs / 36% NatGas) CAPEX: Acq. Dvlp. Expl. Drilling Total Dvlp. % Expl. %Production - MMCFE (Recent Qtr.) 62.8 per Day (41% NatGas) 1999 $22.4 $16.9 $14.1 $30.9 $39.3 55% 45%Reserve Life - Yrs. 10.0 2000 $5.1 $58.0 $13.1 $71.2 $63.1 82% 18%Reserve Engineer(s) 2001 $280.3 $32.1 $12.5 $44.6 $312.4 72% 28%

    2002 $0.9 $19.3 $1.3 $20.6 $20.1 94% 6%Properties 2003 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

    2004E NA NA NA NA NA NA NAASSET COVERAGE: RESERVE VALUE MATRIX: (X-Axis=$/Bbl and Y-Axis=$/Mcf)

    Value $MM Sr. Sec. Sr. Unsec. Sr. Sub Other Total 2002 $20.00 $22.50 $25.00 $27.50 $30.00 $32.50

    Oil & Gas $244 3.04x NA 1.39x NA 1.23x $3.00 $86 $117 $148 $180 $211 $243Energy Assets $244 3.04x NA 1.39x NA 1.23x $3.50 $106 $137 $169 $200 $232 $263

    Total Excl. WC $241 3.01x NA 1.37x NA 1.22x $4.00 $126 $157 $189 $220 $252 $283 $MMTotal Assets $241 3.02x NA 1.37x NA 1.22x $4.50 $146 $178 $209 $241 $272 $304LIQUIDATION ANALYSIS: (Based on Total Asset Values) $5.00 $166 $198 $229 $261 $292 $32418-Month Recovery: $5.50 $187 $218 $249 $281 $312 $344

    PV15 80.0% 100% NA 100% NA 98% Unit Value $20.00 $22.50 $25.00 $27.50 $30.00 $32.50PV20 74.3% 100% NA 100% NA 91% $3.00 $0.37 $0.51 $0.65 $0.79 $0.92 $1.06PV25 69.0% 100% NA 95% NA 84% $3.50 $0.46 $0.60 $0.74 $0.87 $1.01 $1.15

    24-Month Recovery: $4.00 $0.55 $0.69 $0.82 $0.96 $1.10 $1.24 $/MCFEPV15 74.2% 100% NA 100% NA 91% $4.50 $0.64 $0.78 $0.91 $1.05 $1.19 $1.32PV20 67.3% 100% NA 93% NA 82% $5.00 $0.73 $0.86 $1.00 $1.14 $1.28 $1.41PV25 61.1% 100% NA 84% NA 75% $5.50 $0.81 $0.95 $1.09 $1.23 $1.36 $1.50

    DEBT SENIORITY: QUARTERLY SUMMARY: 9/30/02 12/31/02 3/31/03 6/30/03 9/30/03

    Description Sr. Sec. Sr. Unsec. Sr. Sub Other Total 12/02Q 3/03Q 6/03Q 9/03Q

    WC Facility 4.750% '06 -- -- -- -- -- Production, MMCFE/Day 77.2 63.4 61.7 62.8

    Sr. Sec. Nts. 12.000% '05 $80 -- -- -- $80 NatGas % 32% 40% 39% 41%Sr. Sub. Nts. 10.875% '07 -- -- $117 -- $117 Adj. EBITDA(X) $MM $11.2 $11.1 $11.0 $10.9

    Adj. LTM EBITDA(X) $MM $46.8 $47.4 $42.9 $44.2

    CapEx $MM $4.0 $6.5 $9.1 $8.2

    Adj. EBITDA(X)/Cash Int. Exp. 1.7x 1.8x 1.7x 1.7xNet Debt/Annual Adj. EBITDA(X) 4.9x 4.4x 4.6x 4.7x

    LOE (Incl. Taxes) per MCFE $1.73 $2.03 $1.89 $1.83G&A per MCFE $0.36 $0.45 $0.51 $0.45

    Total Debt $80 -- $117 -- $197 Interest Expense per MCFE $0.91 $1.06 $1.14 $1.14LIQUIDITY: WORKING CAPITAL: Total Costs per MCFE $3.44 $3.45 $3.53 $3.42

    Cash & Equivalents $14 Cash & Equivalents $14 $/Bbl Realized Excl. Hedges $23.44 $30.92 $28.60 $28.54Revolver Avail. $12 +Accounts Receivable $15 $/Mcf Realized Excl. Hedges $4.01 $6.23 $5.33 $4.79Other -- -Accounts Payable $29 $/Bbl Differential Excl. Hedges -$4.84 -$3.08 -$0.45 -$1.91Liquidity $27 Working Capital (Deficit) $1 $/Mcf Differential Excl. Hedges -$0.29 -$0.06 -$0.30 -$0.38RECENT EVENTS:

    4/1,10/1

    Mission Resources Corporation (MSSN) Greg [email protected]

    800/937-5333

    Coupon

    Pmt Dates

    January 8, 2004

    Next CallRatings Yield

    Mission Resources Corporation (NASDAQ: MSSN) is a Houston-based independent exploration and production company created by the merger of Bellwether Exploration Company

    with Bargo Energy Company, which was consummated in 2001. The property base combines Bargo's long life oil properties in West Texas with Bellwether's high deliverabilitiy gas

    producing properties in the Gulf Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. MSSN's long-term strategy is to be geographically focused onshore in the Louisiana Gulf Coast, South Texas and

    the Permian Basin. At December 31, 2002, MSSN's 229 BCFE (38 MMBOE) of proved reserves, as engineered by Netherland Sewell, were 64% Oil and 77% Proved Developed,

    and maintained an 10-year reserve life based on the Company's most recent quarter's production rate. In addition to its oil and gas assets, the Company holds leases on over61,000 net undeveloped acres in the US. In accordance with its plan to high-grade its oil and gas reserve quality, the Company targeted a 70% natural gas mix for year-end 2003

    proved reserves. The Company expects 2003 CapEx to total $32 million with nearly $27 million or 83% allocated to development and exploration drilling targets.

    >>MSSN repurchased $97.6 mm 10.875% Sr. Sub. Nts. in March 2003 for $71.7 mm (73% of face value) plus accrued interest, funded by a new $80 mm credit facility. The New

    facility has an initial 12% coupon, which increases to 13% on 2/16/04>>On 12/18/03, MSSN announced it had acquired $10 MM of its 10.875% Sr. Sub. Nts. for 4.5 MM common

    shares, which equates to $2.22/share if assuming bonds at par or if assuming the $2.14 closing share price on 12/18, bonds were repurchased at 96.3% >>Company is reorientinggeographic focus towards onshore Gulf Coast with natgas concentration.>>MSSN signed definitive agreement in early October 2003 to sell E. Texas properties to Danmark Energy

    for $21.5 mm. Reserves total 4.0 MMBOE (24 BCFE)) and equates to $5.38/BOE or $0.90/MCFE. New production from wells recently completed should improve MSSN's

    production mix from 39% to 50% natgas by year-end.

    Permian Basin, Gulf Coast, GOM

    Netherland Sewell

    Global Mix

    [Page 2 of 7]

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    Exploration & Production

    Mission Resources Corporation (MSSN) Greg [email protected]

    800/937-5333

    CAPITALIZATION: ISSUER RATINGS

    Capitalization: Book Mkt. Effective Watch

    Total Debt $197 $195 Rating Date Outlook Watch DatePreferred Stock (Liq. Value) -- -- Moody's Caa1 3/26/2003 NEG ... ...+Shareholders' Equity (Book) $70 $66 S&P ... ... ... ... ...Total Capital $267 $261CREDIT STATISTICS: BANK FACILITY: 9/30/03

    Leverage Qtr. LTM Bank Facility

    Total Debt / Adj. EBITDA(X) 4.5x 4.5x Borrowing Base $12.5 Provider: Wells Fargo FoothillNet Debt / Adj. EBITDA(X) 4.5x 4.4x Amount Funded -- Maturity: 6/6/06Total Debt / Book Capitalization 74% 74% L/C's Outstanding $0.1 Rate: PRIME+50 (4.75% Min.)Total Debt / Market Capitalization 76% 76% Amount Avail. $12.4 L/C Subfacility $3.0FFO / Total Debt 10% 11% L/C Fee: 3.0%

    FFO / Net Debt 10% 11%NET ASSET VALUE:

    Interest Coverage Qtr. LTM Base(1) Upside(2)

    Adj. EBITDA(X) / Cash Interest Expense 1.7x 1.7x Proved Reserves YTD Est. (BCFE) 228.5 228.5[Adj. EBITDA(X) - CapEx] / Cash Interest Exp. 0.4x 0.6x Risked Unit Value ($/MCFE) $1.07 $1.32

    Oil and Gas Assets $244 $302

    Proved Total Gathering System -- EBITDA@ 5.5x -- --Debt per Unit Dvlpd. Proved Energy Assets Excl. Acreage $244 $302

    Total Debt / MCFE (YTD Est.) (YTD Est.) 175.9173 $1.12 $0.86 US Net Acreage 61 Per Acre $50 $3 $3Net Debt / MCFE (YTD Est.) (YTD Est.) $1.12 $0.86 CN Net Acreage -- Per Acre $25 -- --ENTERPRISE VALUE: Intl. Net Acreage -- Per Acre $5 -- --

    Par Mkt. Hedge Contracts (4) ($6) ($13)Stock Price $2.36 $2.36 Equity Interests & Other Assets -- --Shares Outstanding 28.0 28.0 Total Assets $241 $292Market Capitalization $66 $66 Working Capital (Deficit) $1 $1+LT Debt $197 $195 Total Assets after Working Capital $241 $293

    +Preferred Stock (Liq.) -- -- Less: LT Debt & Preferred Stock $197 $197-Working Capital/(Deficit) $1 $1 Net Asset Value $44 $96

    Enterprise Value (EV) $263 $260 NAV per Share $1.57 $3.41VALUATION: DEBT MARKET VALUE

    Debt Only Par Mkt. Description Coupon Maturity Face Price Mkt

    Total Debt / MCFE (YE) $0.86 $0.85 WC Facility 4.750% 06/06 -- 100.0 --Net Debt / MCFE (YE) $0.86 $0.85 Sr. Sec. Nts. 12.000% 01/05 $80.0 100.0 $80.0Total Debt / LQA EBITDA(X) 4.5x 4.5x Sr. Sub. Nts. 10.875% 04/07 $117.4 98.0 $115.1Net Debt / LQA EBITDA(X) 4.5x 4.4x

    Enterprise Values Par Mkt.

    EV / MCFE (YE) $1.15 $1.14EV / Assets 1.1x 1.1xEV / LQA EBITDA(X) 6.0x 5.9xEV / LTM EBITDA(X) 5.9x 5.9x Total Debt 11.331% $197.4 $195.1COUPON PAYMENTS: MATURITY SCHEDULE:

    Description Pmt $MM Year Debt

    WC Facility 4.750% '06 -- Monthly 2004 --Sr. Sec. Nts. 12.000% '05 $0.8 Monthly 2005 $80.0Sr. Sub. Nts. 10.875% '07 $6.4 4/1 10/1 2006 --

    2007 $117.42008 --2009 --2010 --Thereafter --

    MANAGEMENT: OIL & GAS HEDGES (Next 12-Months):

    ROBERT L CAVNAR, CHAIRMAN/PRESIDENT/CEO 12/03Q 3/04Q 6/04Q 9/04Q NTMRICHARD W PIACENTI, SENIOR VP/CFO Production Hedged:JOSEPH G NICKNISH, SENIOR VP:OPERS & EXPLOITATION Oil, MBbls per day 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 3.0KENT A WILLIAMSON, SENIOR VP:PLANNING & EXPLORATN Gas, MMCF per day 15.0 15.0 7.0 7.0 11.0DANIEL P FOLEY, SENIOR VP:FINANCE MMCFE per day 36.0 36.0 22.0 22.0 29.0

    % Volume Hedged:

    LARGEST SHAREHOLDERS: % O/S Oil 56% 56% 40% 40% 48%FRANKLIN ADVISORS (Result of 12/04 Debt-for-Equity Swap) 16.1% Gas 59% 59% 27% 27% 43%IRONWOOD CAPITAL 5.3% Total 57% 57% 35% 35% 46%ENCAP INVESTMENT 4.4% Avg. Prices (NYMEX):BANK OF AMERICA 3.8% Assuming Put PricesDIMENSIONAL FUND 3.6% Oil ($/Bbl) $23.59 $26.03 $24.67 $24.30 $24.67STATE STREET RESEARCH 3.1% Gas ($/Mcf) $3.24 $4.80 $3.93 $3.93 $3.99RHO CAPITAL PARTNERS 1.9% Assuming Ceiling PricesIDEX MANAGEMENT 1.3% Oil ($/Bbl) $23.59 $26.72 $24.67 $24.30 $24.87

    39.6% Gas ($/Mcf) $4.54 $6.11 $4.37 $4.34 $5.01

    NOTE: Debt balances are proforma for the Company's debt-for-equity swap, which involved $10 MM of its 10.875% Sr. Sub. Nts. for 4.5 MM common shares

    Payment Dates

    B3/NRCa/NR

    B3/NRRating

    (1) Represents an internal market value estimate which is based on NYMEX prices of $26.65/Bbl and $4.86/Mcf (90% of 24-month average NYMEX prices) to which ($1.50)/Bbl and ($0.20)/Mcf

    price differentials are applied in addition to risking Proved Developed and Undeveloped reserves at a 97% and 80% success factor, respectively.

    (2) Represents an internal market value estimate which is based on NYMEX prices of $29.61/Bbl and $5.40/Mcf (100% of 24-month average NYMEX prices) to which ($1.50)/Bbl and ($0.20)/Mcf

    price differentials are applied in addition to risking Proved Developed and Undeveloped reserves at a 97% and 80% success factor, respectively.

    (3) The YTD Proved Reserve figure is an estimate based on the prior year's proved reserves plus Extension/Discoveries plus Acquisitions less Property Sales; each is based on the Company's 4-

    Yr. Avg. FD&A cost, except for Property Sales and Acquisitions, which are calculated based on commodity and market conditions.

    (4) The hedge contract value is derived from NYMEX prices of $26.65/Bbl and $4.86/Mcf, which are based on 90% of the 24-Mth average prices and not indicative of the current mark-to-market

    value.

    [Page 3 of 7]

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    Mission Resources CorporationReserve & Production Data

    Daily Production (MMCFE)

    86.295.0

    104.1

    90.6

    NA0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    99 00 01 02 03

    Natural Gas %

    56%

    39% 38%36%

    NA

    60% 59%

    46%

    38%

    NA0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    99 00 01 02 03

    Proved Reserves Production

    Proved Developed Reserves %

    79% 77% 75% 77%

    NA0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    99 00 01 02 03

    Reserve Life (Years)

    7.3

    5.5

    10.6

    6.9

    NA0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    99 00 01 02 03

    Pretax SEC-10 ($MM)

    NA NA

    $365

    $327

    NA$0

    $50

    $100

    $150

    $200

    $250

    $300

    $350

    $400

    99 00 01 02 03

    Reserves by Region

    100% 100% 100% 100%

    0%

    10%20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    99 00 01 02 03

    US CN INTL

    Annual Production (BCFE)

    3135

    38

    33

    NA0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    99 00 01 02 03

    Proved Reserves (BCFE)

    231

    190

    404

    229

    NA0

    50100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    99 00 01 02 03

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    Mission Resources CorporationFinancial Performance

    EBITDA ($MM)

    $40

    $76

    $69

    $47

    NA$0

    $10

    $20

    $30

    $40

    $50

    $60

    $70

    $80

    99 00 01 02 03

    Capital Expenditures ($MM)

    $31

    $82

    $49

    $21

    NA

    $26

    $7

    $166

    $1 NA$0

    $20

    $40

    $60

    $80

    $100

    $120

    $140

    $160

    $180

    99 00 01 02 03

    Capex Acquisitions

    Unit Costs ($/MCFE)

    $0.00

    $0.50

    $1.00

    $1.50

    $2.00

    $2.50

    $3.00

    99 00 01 02 03

    LOE+Other Taxes G&A Interest

    LOE Excl. Tax ($/MCFE)

    $0.69$0.77

    $1.23$1.31

    NA$0.00

    $0.20

    $0.40

    $0.60

    $0.80

    $1.00

    $1.20

    $1.40

    99 00 01 02 03

    Interest Coverage(EBITDA/Cash Interest Exp.)

    3.4x

    4.9x

    2.9x

    1.7x

    NA0.0x

    1.0x

    2.0x

    3.0x

    4.0x

    5.0x

    6.0x

    99 00 01 02 03

    Total Debt/Proved Reserve ($/MCFE)

    $0.56$0.66 $0.64

    $0.98

    NA$0.00

    $0.20

    $0.40

    $0.60

    $0.80

    $1.00

    $1.20

    99 00 01 02

    Total Debt/Developed Reserve ($/MCFE)

    $0.71

    $0.86 $0.86

    $1.28

    NA$0.00

    $0.20

    $0.40

    $0.60

    $0.80

    $1.00

    $1.20

    $1.40

    99 00 01 02 03

    Total Debt Leverage(Total Debt/EBITDA)

    3.2x

    1.7x

    3.8x

    4.8x

    NA0.0x

    1.0x

    2.0x

    3.0x

    4.0x

    5.0x

    6.0x

    99 00 01 02 03

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    Mission Resources CorporationDrilling Results & Producing Well Data

    Reserve Replacement - Drilling Only

    47%

    64%

    106%

    6%0%

    57%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    99 00 01 02 03 99-03

    Reserve Replacement - Overall

    -600%

    -400%

    -200%

    0%

    200%

    400%

    600%

    800%

    1,000%

    99 00 01 02 03 99-03

    All Sources Net After Sales

    Finding Cost - Drilling Only ($/MCFE)

    $2.11

    $3.22

    $1.11

    $10.84

    NA

    $2.12

    $0.00

    $2.00

    $4.00

    $6.00

    $8.00

    $10.00

    $12.00

    99 00 01 02 03 99-03

    Production per Well (MMCFE/Yr.)

    & Avg. Net Interest per Well (%)

    85

    130

    3447

    NA

    17%16%

    24%

    28%

    NA0

    2040

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    99 00 01 02 03

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    Drilling Success Rate

    0%

    10%20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    99 00 01 02 03 99-03

    Exploration Development Overall

    Price Differentials ($/MCFE)

    -$0.34

    -$0.69

    -$0.30

    -$0.56

    NA

    -$0.47

    -$0.80

    -$0.70

    -$0.60

    -$0.50

    -$0.40

    -$0.30

    -$0.20

    -$0.10

    $0.00

    99 00 01 02 03 99-03

    Finding Cost - All-Sources ($/MCFE)

    $0.54

    $2.37

    $0.96

    NA NA

    $1.14

    $0.00

    $0.50

    $1.00

    $1.50

    $2.00

    $2.50

    99 00 01 02 03 99-03

    Net Undeveloped Acreage (000's)

    NA NA

    365

    327

    NA0

    50100

    150

    200

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    2001 Jefferies & Company, Inc. All rights reserved.

    This material has been prepared by Jefferies & Company, Inc. ("Jefferies") a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, employing appropriate

    expertise, and in the belief that it is fair and not misleading. It is approved for distribution in the United Kingdom by Jefferies International

    Limited ("JIL") regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA"). The information upon which this material is based was obtained from

    sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified. Therefore except for any obligations under the rules of the FSA,

    we do not guarantee its accuracy. Additional and supporting information is available upon request. This is not an offer or solicitation of

    an offer to buy or sell any security or investment. Any opinion or estimates constitute our best judgment as of this date, and are subject to

    change without notice. Jefferies and JIL and their affiliates and their respective directors, officers and employees may buy or sell securities

    mentioned herein as agent or principal for their own account. This material is intended for use only by professional or institutional

    investors falling within articles 19 or 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001and not the

    general investing public. None of the investments or investment services mentioned or described herein are available to other persons in

    the U.K. and in particular are not available to "private customers" as defined by the rules of the FSA or to anyone in Canada who is not a

    "Designated Institution" as defined by the Securities Act (Ontario)."

    I, Greg Imbruce, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject

    security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to

    the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

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