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Jeffrey Rhodes | Global Head of Precious Metals
& CEO INTL Commodities DMCC
Investing in Asian Mining Indaba,
October 29th, Singapore
” Macro Overview of Global Precious Metals & The Importance of Asia "
Disclaimer
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. FCStone Group, Inc., INTL FCStone, Inc., and their affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products.
Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.
References to and discussions of exchange traded products are made solely on behalf of FCStone, LLC. References to and discussions of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC, and OTC products are only available to eligible counterparties.
Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Macro Overview of Precious Metals
o Total Supply Versus Fabrication Demand
o Top 5 Producers and Consumers
o Precious Metals Prices 2001 – 2011
Focus On Gold – The Yellow Metal Dominates The Precious Metals Sector
o Global Gold Prices 2001 – 2011
o Gold – A Major Supply Versus Demand Surplus
The Importance Of Asia In The Global Gold Market
o Percentage Share Of Supply
o Percentage Share of Demand
o The Major Markets Of Asia
The Outlook For Precious Metals Prices in 2012
Q & A
4
Total Supply Versus Fabrication Demand
Gold (tonnes) 2010 2011
Total Physical Supply 4,350 4,424
Total Fabrication Demand 2,784 2,771
Supply Versus Demand Surplus/Deficit 1,566 1,653
Average Gold Price USD $1,224.08 $1,571.64
USD Value of Surplus/Deficit Mio $61,341 $83,133
Silver (Mio ounces) 2010 2011
Total Physical Supply 968 1,019
Total Fabrication Demand 879 914
Supply Versus Demand Surplus/Deficit 89 105
Average Silver Price USD $20.1219 $30.4200
USD Value of Surplus/Deficit Mio $1,791 $3,194
Data Source: Thompson Reuters GFMS
5
Total Supply Versus Fabrication Demand
Platinum ('000 ounces) 2010 2011
Total Physical Supply 7,900 7,948
Total Fabrication Demand 7,230 7,238
Supply Versus Demand Surplus/Deficit 670 710
Average Platinum Price USD $1,608.98 $1,721.86
USD Value of Surplus/Deficit Mio $1,078 $1,223
Palladium ('000 ounces) 2010 2011
Total Physical Supply 9,135 9,298
Total Fabrication Demand 8,540 8,842
Supply Versus Demand Surplus/Deficit 595 456
Average Palladium Price USD $525.51 $733.30
USD Value of Surplus/Deficit Mio $313 $334
Data Source: Thompson Reuters GFMS & Johnson Mathey Review
6
Total Supply Versus Fabrication Demand
USD Value of Deficit/Surplus Mio 2010 2011
Gold $61,341 $83,133
Silver $1,791 $3,194
Platinum $1,078 $1,223
Palladium $313 $334
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Gold Silver Platinum Palladium
2010
2011
Precious Metals Prices 2001 – 2011
Data Source: Thompson Reuters GFMS
-60.00%
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Annual Average % Change 2001 - 2011
Global Gold Prices 2001 – 2011
2001 2005 2010 2011 2011 v 2001 2011 v 2010
Average Gold Price USD/oz $271.04 $444.45 $1,224.52 $1,571.64 480% 28%
Average Gold Price Euro/kg € 9,737 € 11,521 € 29,739 € 36,358 273% 22%
Average Gold Price Yen/g ¥1,058 ¥1,577 ¥3,444 ¥4,018 280% 17%
Average Gold Price Yuan/g ¥72.13 ¥117.09 ¥266.15 ¥326.61 353% 23%
Average Gold Price Rs/10g Rs4,462 Rs6,454 Rs18,304 Rs23,899 436% 31%
Data Source: Thompson Reuters GFMS
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average Gold Price USD
11
Gold – A Major Supply Versus Demand Surplus
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
TotalPhysicalGold Supply(tonnes)
Gold SupplyVersusDemand(tonnes)
TotalFabricationDemand(tonnes)
12
$100 Billion Needed to Sustain The Bull Market
($10,000,000)
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
$80,000,000
$90,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
USD Value of Deficit/Surplus Mio
Asia’s Importance In The Global Gold Market
Data Source: Thompson Reuters GFMS
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Asia VersusGlobal Supply%
Asia Is Crucial To Global Gold Demand
Data Source: Thompson Reuters GFMS
56.00%
58.00%
60.00%
62.00%
64.00%
66.00%
68.00%
70.00%
72.00%
74.00%
76.00%
78.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Asia VersusGlobalFabricationDemand %
The Major Gold Markets Of Asia
Data Source: Thompson Reuters GFMS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Mine Supply
Scrap Flows
Total Supply
Asia - Top Ten Gold Supply Markets (tonnes) 2011
The Major Gold Demand Markets Of Asia
Data Source: Thompson Reuters GFMS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
India China Japan Turkey SouthKorea
Iran Malaysia SaudiArabia &Yemen
Indonesia Egypt
Asia - Top Ten Gold Offtake Markets (tonnes) 2011
The Outlook For Precious Metals Prices in 2012 LBMA Survey Outlook 2012 5th January 2012
Gold Silver Platinum Palladium
AM Fixing on 5th January $1,614.50 $28.92 $1,624.00 $735.00
Predicted Average Price 2012 $1,766.00 $33.98 $1,624.00 $735.00
Actual Average Price 2011 $1,572.00 $35.11 $1,720.00 $733.00
Change USD 2012 v 2011 $194.00 ($1.13) ($96.00) $2.00
Change % 2012 v 2011 12.34% -3.22% -5.58% 0.27%
High High Predcition 2012 $2,500.00 $53.00 $2,120.00 $1,050.00
Average High Prediction 2012 $2,055.00 $44.49 $1,875.00 $879.00
Low Low Predcition 2012 $1,200.00 $19.20 $1,250.00 $450.00
Average Low Prediction 2012 $1,443.00 $24.06 $1,313.00 $549.00
YTD Actual As At End September 2012
Average Price 2012 $1,650.12 $30.619 $1,534.98 $640.36
High 2012 $1,791.75 $37.230 $1,729.00 $722.00
4-Oct-12 29-Feb-12 23-Feb-12 29-Feb-12
Low 2012 $1,537.50 $26.670 $1,390.00 $564.00
16-May-12 12-Jul-12 3-Aug-12 24-Jul-12
Gold Silver Platinum Palladium
Jeff Rhodes / Glyn Stevens High $1,975 $50.25 $1,940 $920.00
INTL/FCStone Low $1,465 $22.25 $1,305 $565.00
Average $1,727 $36.25 $1,735 $765.00
Global Precious Metals
INTL FCStone Inc. (NASDA Q: INTL) is a Fortune 500
company, providing customers across the globe with execution and advisory services in commodities, capital markets, currencies, and asset management. Please visit www.intlfcstone.com for more information
Our precious metals business started in the U.S. in 2003, expanded to London in 2006, and then to Dubai and Singapore in 2007. We now have a highly qualified, focused global team with combined experience of more than 250 years providing world class transactional expertise in gold, silver and platinum group metals
Singapore offers a virtual 24-hour service from Monday to Friday, Dubai is open 7 days a week, and our UK and US staff are available to clients 24/7
We are a key player in all the major global physical bullion markets
Our memberships include:
• The London Bullion Market Association • The London Platinum and Palladium Market
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