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JDP 3-40JDP 3-40Security & Stabilisation: Security & Stabilisation: The Military ContributionThe Military Contribution
Presentation by Lieutenant Colonel Alasdair Balgarnie
Team Leader JDP 3-40
Development, Concepts and Doctrine Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCentre
Recent HeadlinesRecent Headlines• “Overstretched, overwhelmed and
over there.” • “Britain's armed forces, losing their
way?” The Economist, 29 Jan 09
• “Overstretch pushes British troops to the brink”
Daily Telegraph, 11 Jan 09
• “Why did it all go wrong. Re-assessing British COIN in Iraq.”
Strategic Studies Quarterly, Winter 2008
• “Blair’s Wars and Brown’s Budgets: from Strategic Defence Review to Strategic Decay in less than a decade.”
International Affairs, Spring 09
Emerging Concepts & DoctrineEmerging Concepts & Doctrine
Drivers Towards InstabilityDrivers Towards InstabilityDriven by Six Mega Trends
…Globalization
Top 1% of world population owns 40% of wealth …Interconnected world economies and opportunities …The ‘have-nots’ know it
…Shifting Demographics
60% will live in urban areas by 2030 … Africa, Middle East, Central Africa have 40-50% Youth
Bulge
…Weapons of Mass Destruction
~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … ~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … 3770 tons of enriched uranium … al Qaeda religious dutytons of enriched uranium … al Qaeda religious duty
…Climate Change
Arctic sea ice melted by 2040 … Desertification at 70,000Km2/yr … 1.4B confront environmental
fragility
…Failed / Fragile States
Account for 77% of conflict … Fragile states have 4 times terror problems … 28 of 51 African states high
risk
…Uncertain Natural Resource Availability
World food cost up 45%, shortages of rice, wheat & maize … triple digit oil prices … 450M face severe water shortage
A US Army ViewIn line with DCDC Strategic Trends
Major Combat
Counter Irregular Activity
Peace Support
Operations
Limited Intervention
Peacetime Military
Engagement
Level of violence
Spectrum of Conflict View
Increasing Level of Violence
Op
era
tio
na
l T
he
me
Elements of a Stable State
Fragile States – Downward Spiral
Instability – The Problem
Stabilisation – The Solution
Stabilisation & COIN
Graduated Military Commitment
How does 3-40 fit in ?
Joint Ops Project
LWC Tactical Doctrine
Land Tactical PublicationsLand Tactical Publications
How does 3-40 fit in ?
Joint Ops Project
OGDs Allies
LWC Tactical Doctrine
JDP 3-40
JDP 3-40 sets out the Operational Art for:JDP 3-40 sets out the Operational Art for:
the UK military contribution
stabilising fragile or failed states, determining the nature, level,
principles and priorities that govern
and the principles governingtransitions to civilian and host nation control
StabilisationStabilisation
Stabilisation is the process that supports states which are entering, enduring or
emerging from conflict, in order to prevent or reduce violence; protect the population and
key infrastructure; promote political processes and governance structures which lead to a
political settlement that institutionalises non-violent contests for power; and prepare for
sustainable social and economic development
Terminology Terminology
JDP 3-40 Macro Structure
Part 1 - WHY ?
PART 2 - WHAT ?
PART 3 - HOW ?
PART 1: STABILISATION• The problem of societal conflicts within fragile states:
– the UK approach to the stabilisation– the underlying causes of state fragility and societal conflicts
• 3 big ideas:– ‘comprehensively’ across security, development and governance lines of operation– central conflict relationship - host government, competing elites (+ insurgents),
wider population– the national strategic aim - to foster the development of a political settlement,
amenable to broader UK interests between these actors
PART 2: THE MILITARY CONTRIBUTION TO STABILISATION• the nature of military engagement within stabilisation missions• the military’s role in influencing the societal conflict in ways which foster the
development of a political settlement• the generic types of operational tasks the military may be required to conduct across
security, governance and development lines of operation – permissiveness is the key• a set of principles for the use of military force
PART 3: CAMPAIGNING IN STABILISATION• the critical function of intelligence in underpinning the campaigning cycle• the specifics of campaigning within the stabilisation environment• the tools and insights necessary for conducting the iterative cycle of campaign design,
analysis, planning, execution and assessment• Anticipating, learning and adapting
JDP 3-40:JDP 3-40: Key ThemesKey Themes
• The Centrality of Influence in Stabilisation – to achieve a political settlement
• Stabilisation Activities & combat are both part of complex operations
• Host Nation sovereignty impacts on everything you do
• Security demands persistent presence – requires mass and is linked to capacity building
• Multinationality brings its own complexity
• Any plan must be comprehensive in its considerations – there should be an integrated theatre campaign plan
• The military are likely to have a significant role in the delivery of civil effect
• Anticipate, learn and adapt.
• Transitions – planned, managed - dynamic
Key Conflict RelationshipKey Conflict Relationship
QuestionsQuestions
www.dcdc.mod.uk