Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole: Calculating Local

Population Projections in Partnership

By

Jayne DaleSenior Research Officer

Bournemouth Borough Council

Why - The history

• Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole is a strategic planning area and this geography has been subsequently used for the MAA.

What was required?

• To support the strategic planning function evidence of the housing requirement was needed.

• To undertake this work we agreed jointly to purchase PopGroup, HouseGroup and LabGroup.

• Each authority has copies of the software.

How has this worked?• Over a number of years we have

developed a consistent methodology for producing the projections.

• We use a combination of national datasets and local data to produce the projections.

• We produce a number of runs with various scenarios. These usually include trend-based, policy-based and natural change projections.

Who uses the results?

• The projections are used across various departments in the three authorities, however the main purpose for which they are run is for strategic planning.

• Therefore the policy-based projections are housing-led constrained to past housing completion figures and future allocations.

What else?

• We have also produced short-term small area projections. A methodology was agreed although in this case each authority produced their own set of projections. The purpose was to support the Building Schools for the Future work.

Benefits of joint working

• Shared staff resources across three authorities.

• Consistency• Cost-saving• Time saving• Three authorities better than one!

Difficulties in joint working• Difficulties in getting together to

arrange work programme.• Getting agreement on constraints

can be difficult if the authorities have different priorities.

• Differing working priorities.• General issues with staff resources.• Geography.

The Future• The LEP is currently looking like it

will cover Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole. Therefore the joint work is likely to continue.

• We have invested in PopGroup which is introducing new software to replace HouseGroup and LabGroup which we will need to purchase and learn to use.

• October spending announcements.