Japanâ€™s Nuclear Future the most mysterious energy policy

Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik -

1

Japan’s Nuclear Future – the most mysterious energy policy -

June 27 2013

Tomoko (Tom) Murakami

Manager, Nuclear Energy Group

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

8th Annual European Nuclear Power 2013 June 26-27, 2013 @ Warsaw, Poland

Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 2

Contents

1. Current status of Japanese nuclear power sector (1) Nuclear development strategies in major countries after Fukushima (2) Analysis – the reason of necessity of nuclear (3) Discussions on the energy policy and nuclear development

2. The new safety regulatory standards and the way to restart (1) What actions have been taken since Fukushima accident?

(2) New Safety Standard

(3) Opinions from the operators/experts

(4) Way to restarting NPPs – unclear…

3. Strategies and Provisions of Plant Vendors in the World Nuclear Power Market (1) What is “nuclear market” in the world?

(2) Market players in competition and cooperation

(3) Japan’s stance for exporting nuclear technology after Fukushima accident

(4) Policy implications from ASEAN newcomers to the nuclear market


0. Foreword – Prime Minister Abe visited Poland on June 15-17 to cement energy ties with East European leaders

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the prime ministers Donald Tusk of Poland, Petr Necas of the Czech Republic, Viktor Orban of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia, agreed to deepen cooperation in energy, including nuclear and renewable power.

Since the four nations are planning to boost nuclear power generation to meet

rising demand for energy, Abe is hoping the summit will also generate demand for Japanese infrastructure projects, especially nuclear power technology, as well as investment that can help revive the world’s third-largest economy.

The Japanese side confirmed its responsibility to contribute to enhanced nuclear safety worldwide by sharing knowledge and the lessons learned from the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

Source: 16 June 2013, the Japan Times

Japan’s nuclear marketing strategy is still active!


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1. Current status of Japanese nuclear energy sector

(1) Nuclear development strategies in major countries after Fukushima

(2) Analysis – the reason of necessity of nuclear (3) Discussions on the energy policy and nuclear

development


1.(1) Nuclear development strategies in major countries after Fukushima

China Maintaining the rapid development policy with advanced safety 40 GW by 2015, 70 GW by 2020

India No change to the government’s nuclear development policy Rajasthan 7/8 will be in operation in 2016

France Nuclear is one of the core competence as ever

US “We must rely on a diverse set of energy sources including

renewables, natural gas, clean coal and nuclear power”. Russia

Maintaining the development policy based on the energy plan South Korea

New construction works continuing even after the election in 2012

Italy National vote in June 2013, forbidding new nuclear

Switzerland Determined phasing nuclear out by 2034

Germany Governmental commitment on phasing nuclear out by 2022

Pro

Anti


1.(2) Analysis – the reason of necessity of nuclear power

The common factors in countries that have not changed their nuclear development policies Tight energy supply-demand balance Demand for a rapid accumulation of power capacities Underdeveloped social infrastructure which would be crucial for their sustainable

economic and industrial growth

“Chinese reactors are safer than those in Germany?” ->Completely no!

Developing countries need nuclear… NOT because it is absolutely safe, BUT simply because it can meet the energy demand increase along with economic

growth. The safety concerns with regard to nuclear power are as severe in China, India,

Pakistan as they are in the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea. The most realistic solution : to continue developing nuclear power along with their

energy demand, paying maximum attention to the safety problems and solving them step by step.

“Only rich countries can afford discussions of phasing nuclear out.” By Mykola Azalov, the Ukrainian Prime Minister, March 15, 2011


1.(3)Discussions on the energy policy and nuclear development Can renewables be alternative options for zero-nuclear?

The governmental committee proposed three options – 0%, 15%, 20-25% nuclear in 2030. Decreasing nuclear will push THERMAL forward, not renewables

Zero-Nuclear

15%-Nuclear

20%-Nuclear

25%-Nuclear Strategic Energy

Plan of 2010

2010 Actual

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50

Nuclear (%)

Ren

ewab

les

(%)

Thermal

50

Thermal

55

Thermal

65

Thermal

35

Phasing nuclear out


1.(3)Discussions on the energy policy and nuclear development Contradictory issues in the new Innovative Strategy

On September 14, 2012, the Energy and Environment Council decided an “Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment”. No more new nuclear power plant construction

Restrict the operation period of existing plants strictly to 40 years

Nuclear restart would be permitted under the consensus of NRA

Make every effort to achieve “zero nuclear power generation” in 2030s

But CONTINUE the current nuclear fuel cycle policies

Source: National Policy Unit http://www.npu.go.jp/en/policy/policy06/pdf/20120924/20120924_en.pdf

Not yet decided anything certain

On September 19, 2012, the Cabinet decided that the government will continue its energy and environmental policies, “taking into account” the decision of the EEC, “with flexibility and continuous verification”.


1.(3)Discussions on the energy policy and nuclear development After the landslide victory of LDP to DPJ in December 2012

After the landslide victory at the Lower House election in December 2012, the Prime Minister Abe Cabinet started.

Prime Minister Abe declared to make a firm energy policy.

“DPJ’s energy policy is only wish, therefore we make a firm energy policy.”

Minister of Economy, Trade and industry said :

“It is necessary to review DPJ’s Energy Policy.”

“Concerning about construction new NPP, we make political decision accumulating expert knowledge.“

A new governmental committee, “General Subcommittee” has started a comprehensive discussion on the energy policy in March 2013. •The new policy should focus on sustainable supply of energy and cost reduction. •Nuclear would be more discussed together with the back-end policy.

“Zero-nuclear” is likely to be reconsidered with the exporting strategy still alive, but would not be quantified.

…Due to the unclear application of the new regulation standard.


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2. The new safety regulatory standards and the way to restart

(1) What actions have been taken since Fukushima accident?

(2) New Safety Standard

(3) Opinions from the operators/experts

(4) Way to restarting NPPs – unclear…


2.(1)What actions have been taken since Fukushima accident?

2011 2012 2013

Utilities

Safety Regulatory Authority

11 March Fukushima Accident

March – August Immediate Safety Measures

July 2011 – August 2012 Assessment on the Stress Test -> 30 units submitted

July 2012 Ohi-3/4 restart

March 23 Order on Immediate Safety Measures

6 July Order on the Stress Test

March 2012 Ohi-3/4 Report approved by NISA/ASC

September 2012

NRA Launch

October 2012 – Expert Committees (19 as of June 2013)

•Study Team on the New Safety Standard •Study Team on the On-site Faults •…

6-28 February Public comment inquiry to the Draft Safety Standard

April 10 – May 10 Public comment to the Safety Standard

10 May Public comment to the Safety Standard

Preparing for licensing documents for restart


2.(2) New Safety Standard

The draft New Safety Standards have been released in April 2013, public comments were inquired until 10 May.

NRA and their study teams will put the public comments together to endorse the new safety standards. New safety standards expected to be enforced in July 2013.

NRA released three draft safety standards; Safety Standard for Design Basis

Safety measures against natural phenomena (e.g., tornados, forest fires) external man-made hazards (e.g., an aircraft crash), the reliability of off-site power supply, ultimate heat sink and the functions of SSCs, as well as fire protection measures

Safety Standard for Severe Accident plants are to be equipped with such facility as: filtered containment vessel venting system permanent and portable coolant injection equipment power generation vehicles and connecting facilities Specific Safety Facilities (SSFs) etc…..

Safety Standard for Earthquakes and Tsunamis protective measures such as sea walls against tsunamis, anti-inundation measures, no

construction of Class S nuclear facilities on the exposure of active faults should be prepared.

Source: NRA http://www.nsr.go.jp/english/data/new_safety_standards.pdf


2.(3) Opinions from the operators/experts

The new Safety Standards should be: Based on Defense-in-Depth, evaluate the management

under beyond-design condition. Discussed and determined based on

scientific and technically reasonable evidences. Plant life limit within 40 years Definition and assessment of active faults etc

The current draft Safety Standards fail the exam by: Not the performance-based regulation but only the hardware regulation,

little room for alternative measures Diversified emergency power sources Containment venting systems Alternative control center etc

Violate the Defense-in-Depth concept not prepared for unexpected events

Little consideration on the relative risk

Excessively severe among other countries in the world -> beyond the international standards

Source: •“Lessons learned from Fukushima Daiichi NPP Accident and Japanese regulations,” Professor Koji Okamoto, the University of Tokyo, Nuclear Safety Symposium, 26 February 2013, Tokyo •Denki Shimbun, April 23, May 13

Examples of the hardware regulation required by NRA Permanent facility for lower PCV coolant injection/ Filtered venting system

Professor Koji Okamoto The University of Tokyo

Professor Akira Yamaguchi Osaka University

http://www.okamo.jp/okamoto.jpg


2.(4) Way to restarting NPPs – unclear…

Items FY2012 FY2013

New Safety Standards

-Severe accidents

-Back-fits

-Earthquake & Tsunami

Investigation on the on-site fracture zones

Operation schedule

Preliminary Draft proposals

Hearing from Operators/experts

Public comments inquiry

Draft proposals in early April

Discussions among Operators, experts and NRA?

July 18 New Standards is to be enforced

•Study Team meetings •Hearings from operators/experts

Supplementary investigations

Safety Assessments for the restart? •Works for supplementary safety enhancement •Preliminary works for the new safety standards

Operators cannot decide when to restart.

NRA has no incentive to hurry the restart.


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3. Strategies and Provisions of Plant Vendors in the World Nuclear Power Market

(1) What is “nuclear market” in the world? (2) Market players in competition and cooperation (3) Japan’s stance for exporting nuclear technology

after Fukushima accident (4) Policy implications from ASEAN newcomers to the

nuclear market


World nuclear market Design

Construction Operation

Maintenance Decommissioning

3.(1) What is “nuclear market” in the world?

Demand side

Supply side

•Matured market •High growth market •Emerging market •Declining market

•Major and long-established vendors •Suppliers •New vendors

Page 5-6

Page 22


3.(2) Market players in competition and cooperation

Major nuclear vendors are in the US, France, Japan, Russia, Canada

New comers from South Korea and China

Areva MitsubishiWestinghouse

Toshiba GE Hitachi Canada Russia South Korea China

Over1.5 GW

1-1.3GW

NRC-DC : Design Certification

EPRUnder reviewfor NRC-DC

EU-APWRUS-APWR

Under review forNRC-DC

AP-1000NRC-DCapproved

VVER-1500

VVER-1000

PWR PWRCANDUABWR/BWR

ATMEA-1Basic Design Process

completedProposing to Turkey

JV in US and inJapan sinceApril 2008

ESBWRUnder review for

NRC-DC

ABWRRenewal pre-

application for NRC-DC

ACR-1000

Japanese 3.5+ BWRJapanese 3.5+PWR

ABWRAES-2006

KERENA(Former SWR-1000@Siemens)

APR-1400Under

construction in UAE

OPR-1000

CAP-1400

ACPR-1000CPR-1000


3.(3) Japan’s stance for exporting nuclear technology after Fukushima accident

“Continue to offer nuclear technologies of the highest safety” It is the responsibility of Japan to contribute to strengthening nuclear safety worldwide by sharing with the world its experience and lessons derived from the nuclear accident of last year, and to offer its nuclear technologies of the highest standard in safety in the world to those foreign countries which wish to utilize nuclear technologies of our country, taking into account the situation and will of those countries. Effective bilateral agreement with:

Kazakhstan, May 2011 South Korea, January 2012 Vietnam, January 2012 Jordan, February 2012

Source: “Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment”, National Policy Unit, 14 September 2012

JAPC and JINED Inks Memorandum on Cooperation with Electricity of Vietnam

On September 28, 2011,the Japan Atomic Power Company (JAPC) and Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) signed an agreement on the implementation of a feasibility study to build a nuclear power plant (NPP) on a second site in Ninh Thuan Province.

On September 29, JINED, also signed a memorandum with the Vietnamese firm on cooperation in the second project.

Source: JAIF

TEPCO has

announced nothing yet

Government of Japan Private companies


3.(4) Policy implications from ASEAN newcomers to the nuclear market

These would be highly recommended by ASEAN newcomers: Thorough review of the Fukushima accident with sufficient explanations and

analyses from related parties in Japan and, most of all, information sharing with all international organizations in relation ( i.e. IAEA) would be the top priority.

Safety regulatory authorities and governmental / private nuclear industries in Northeastern Asia would learn lessons from Fukushima through IAEA or Japanese authorities.

South Korea, China and Japan can share intelligences and cooperate even while competing in the areas of: Capacity building for infrastructure and human resources Training, implicating and education for operation and maintenance Emergency preparedness

Working together with Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US) to introduce an advanced safety standard would be also important to catch up with the global nuclear safety consensus.


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Dziękuję bardzo

Thank you

Vielen Dank Merci beaucoup Tack så mycket

Muchas gracias


A-1 Trends by Category

1. Countries using and promoting nuclear power

2. Countries required to substantially expand nuclear power

3. Countries planning to introduce nuclear power

4. Countries tending to decrease nuclear power

•Countries in category 1 &2, those position nuclear power as an important part of an energy portfolio maintain giving priority to nuclear power development.

•Countries in category 4, those have traditionally hesitated further nuclear power development feature growing arguments against nuclear. -40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

C apacity added in 2011-2035（G W )

C apacity in 2011 (G W )

1

USFrance

Russia

S.K orea

4

Germ any

Sw eden

2

3

M iddle East

A SEA N

India

China


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A-2 Why was (is) nuclear necessary in Japan?

Scarcity of Energy Resources High import dependence, especially on Middle East

-> Since the oil crises in the 1970s Japan has diversified energy sources Carbon Dioxide Reductions Even after Fukushima accident, these reasons still exist.

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Year

Genera

tion (

GW

h)

Renewables

Geothermal/new energy

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal27%

9%

27%

27%

7% 1%Coal34%

Oil11%

Gas34%

Nuclear10%

Hydro8%

2%

Renewables2%

Geothermal/newenergy

1%

1,071TWh(2010)1,049TWh(2011)

Trend of the generation by fuel from 1971 to 2011 in Japan Source: Energy Balances of OECD Countries, IEA


A-3 Former Policy and the Goal “Strategic Energy Plan of 2010”

Aiming to raise the share of zero-emission power sources from 34% to 70%,

New construction and extension of 14 nuclear reactors -> raise the capacity utility factor from 60% to 90%.

Introduce renewable energy to 2.4 times the current level (15 times excluding hydropower).


A-4 Nuclear Regulation Authority launch in September 2012

Core value The NRA was to established to absorb and learn the lessons of the Fukushima

Daiichi nuclear accident of March 11, 2011. The nuclear safety system and management must be rebuilt on a solid basis,

placing the highest priority on public safety and a genuine safety culture. Guiding Principles for activities : Independence and Transparency Independent Decision Making Effective Actions Open and Transparent Organization Improvement and Commitment Emergency Response (preparedness)


A-5 Arguments on the on-site fracture zones - Tsuruga

4 expert meetings, 1 site visit and 1 peer reviews were held from December 2012 to May 2013.

On May 22, NRA concluded that the fracture zones under the reactor building of Tsuruga Unit 2 is surely an active fault, which should be avoided as a nuclear facility, though JAPC is still continuing the survey.

JAPC asked an international expert group to assess the fracture zones and the interim report has been issued on May 21.

Source: JAPC website, April 24, 2013 http://www.japc.co.jp/english/pdf/130424/japc_report_data_full.pdf

What made NRA jump to conclusions??

Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 26 strategier och bestämmelser växt leverantörer i världen kärnkraftsmarknaden

A-6 Japan’s strategy for exporting nuclear technology

Nuclear Energy National Plan clearly pronounces active supports to private companies advancing to international nuclear markets.

Internationally expanding the Japanese nuclear power industry is a key goal in the “New Growth Strategy” released in June 2010.

In October 2010, the Government-Private Joint Organization, the International Nuclear Energy Development of Japan (JINED) created.

Cooperation by Utilities as well as Plant Manufacturers would be crucial to support newcomers in the area of operation and maintenance with high safety technologies. -> 75% of shares are utilities.

Type Company Ratio

Electric Utilities 75％

Hokkaido ５％

Tohoku 5％

Tokyo 20％

Chubu 10％

Hokuriku 5％

Kansai 15％

Chugoku 5％

Shikoku 5％

Kyushu 5％

Manufacturers 15％

Toshiba 5％

Hitachi 5％

Mitsubishi 5％

Other 10% INCJ 10％

Documents

Japanâ€™s Nuclear Future the most mysterious energy policy