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Naofumi KosakaGreenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Jan. 28th, 2016IPCC Open Symposium
Science and policy to cope with climate change and the importance of GHG inventory to assess mitigation progress
Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
National level →National inventories(Prepared and submitted based on provisions of UNFCCC)
Municipality level →Local government action plan(Prepared and published based on the Act on Promotion of Global Warming
Countermeasures)
Corporate level→GHG emissions accounting, reporting and disclosure system(Estimated and reported based on the Act)
Project level →Carbon offset (e.g. J-Credit Scheme)(Used for credits)
Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions by actor
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeGHG: Greenhouse gas
2
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.2
1,261 Mt
+6.5 %
-0.4 %
+3.6 %Five-year average
1,278 Mt(+1.4% from BY)
+1.6 % from BY
KP-CP1 target:- 6 % below base year
(1,186 Mt)
-4.4 %
1,350 Mt
③Kyoto mechanisms
credits(5.9% of BY)
①Actualtotal emissions
②Forest and other carbon
sinks(3.9% of BY)
If the forest and other carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms credits are taken into account, the five-year average for total emissions during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (KP-CP1) (FY2008-FY2012) shows an 8.4% decrease compared to the total emissions of the base year; therefore Japan will have achieved its target for the KP-CP1 (-6 % below base year level).
Emissions(Billion t-CO2 eq.)
0.9
Base Year (BY) 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 - 2012(In principle, 1990) (five-year average)
①-② -③Five-year average:
-8.4% from BY
Achievement status of Japan’s target for KP-CP1
3
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400 19
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
14…
(単
位百
万トン
CO2 換
算)
(年度)
NF3SF6PFCsHFCsN2OCH4CO2
0
≈
• Japan’s total GHG emissions in FY2014 (preliminary figure) were 1,365 Mt-CO2 eq.• -3.0% from FY2013, -2.2% from FY2005, +7.5% from FY1990• CO2 emissions accounted for over 90% of total GHG emissions.
(Pre
limin
ary
figur
e)
Japan’s GHG emissions by gas
(Fiscal year (FY))
(Uni
t: m
illio
n to
nnes
CO
2eq
uiva
lent
(Mt-C
O2
eq.))
4
Trend of CO2 emissions by sector (allocated)Emissions from electricity and heat generation are allocated to final consumption sectors.
5
Grea
t Eas
t Jap
an E
arth
quak
e
Trend of CO2 emissions by sector (allocated)
Increased traffic demandLarger automobiles
Larger floor areaProgress in office automation
Demand for smaller automobilesImproved fuel efficiency
Larger/diversified home applianceIncreased number of households
Fina
ncia
l cris
is
6
PREPARATION OF JAPAN’S NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES
7
Ministry of the Environment
Overall responsible entity
UNFCCC Secretariat
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Relevantministries/orga
nizations
Committee forGreenhouse Gas
Emissions EstimationMethods
温室効果ガス排出・吸収量の算定機関
Committee to decidemethodologies
Submission
METI
MLITMAFF
etc.
Dataprovision
Submission
Request fordata
Request for GHGinventory preparation
Submission of thedraft GHG inventory
Request forexamination
Request forrevisions andimprovements
Data provision
Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office ofJapan (GIO),
National Institute for EnvironmentalStudies
SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 2006(Sheet 1 of 1) Submission 2008 v1.1
JAPAN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs (2) PFCs (2) SF6
(2) Total SINK CATEGORIESTotal (Net Emissions) (1) 1,182,051 23,663 25,576 6,618 6,323 4,349 1,248,5801. Energy 1,185,910 1,268 7,525 1,194,702
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1,185,874 841 7,525 1,194,2401. Energy Industries 387,049 34 1,427 388,5092. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 373,821 293 2,733 376,8483. Transport 246,802 234 3,003 250,0404. Other Sectors 177,235 280 343 177,8575. Other 966 1 19 986
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 36 426 0 4622. Industrial Processes 53,885 133 1,625 6,618 6,323 4,349 72,9323. Solvent and Other Product Use NA,NE 266 2664. Agriculture 15,352 12,017 27,368
A. Enteric Fermentation 7,035 7,035B. Manure Management 2,471 4,733 7,205C. Rice Cultivation 5,743 5,743D. Agricultural Soils(3) NA 7,210 7,210F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 102 74 176G. Other NO NO NO
5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -91,544 26 17 -91,501A. Forest Land -83,389 2 0 -83,386B. Cropland 307 2 15 324C. Grassland -1,139 0 0 -1,138D. Wetlands 181 1 0 183E. Settlements -7,809 13 1 -7,795F. Other Land 303 8 1 312
6. Waste 33,800 6,885 4,126 44,811A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NA,NE,NO 5,392 5,392B. Waste-water Handling 1,409 1,178 2,587C. Waste Incineration 33,279 83 2,925 36,287D. Other 521 IE,NO 24 545
(2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included.(3) Parties which previously reported CO2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR.(4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.
CO2 equivalent (Gg )
(1) For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, thesigns for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).
GHG inventorypreparation
CRFNIR
Japan’s institutional arrangement
8
Gases and sectors
GHG Sector
1. Energy Fuel combustionFuel combustion
Fugitive emissionsFuel combustion
Fugitive emissions-
2. Industrial Processes and Other Product Use (IPPU)
Cement production, Lime production,
Limestone use, etc.
Chemicals production (ethylene,
carbon black, etc.)
Chemicals production (nitric acid, adipic acid,
etc.)
Semiconductors, Refrigerants,
Solvents, Electrical
equipment, etc.
3. AgricultureEnteric fermentation,
Manure management, Rice
cultivation, etc.
Manure management, Agricultural soil, etc. -
4. LULUCF Removals by forest, etc. Soil drainage, etc. Soil mineralization, etc. -
5. Waste Waste incineration
Waste disposal, Wastewater treatment,
Waste incineration
Wastewater treatment,
Waste incineration-
9
CO2 N2OCH4
HFCsPFCsSF6
NF3
LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
Emissions
Emission factors
(EF)②
Activity data(AD)①
= ×
Global warming
potentials (GWP)③
×
× × 1(CO2 factor)
Gasoline consumption
(heat quantity)=
CO2emissions
from gasoline
Statistics
Emission factor of gasoline
Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions
GHG inventories are prepared not by direct measurement of air but by calculation from statistics, etc.
10
Major statistics→Activity data
Relevantministries
Research Report on Recycling Amounts*→Waste incineration, etc.
MOEJ
General Energy Statistics→Fossil fuel consumption ANRE
Motor Vehicle Transport Statistics→Kilometer traveled, etc.
MLIT
Livestock Statistics→Cattel population, etc.
MAFFStatistics kept in the GIO office
①Activity dataValue indicating the scale of an activity
* Report of the Research on the state of Wide-range Movement and Cyclical Use of WastesMOEJ: Ministry of the EnvironmentANRE: Agency for Natural Resources and EnergyMLIT: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and TourismMAFF: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions
11
Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions
(e.g.)– CO2 emissions when a certain amount of heat is produced
from gasoline combustion [g-CO2/MJ]
CH4
Per year
CO2
Per calorific value
GHG emissions per unit activity
– CH4 emissions from cow burps over a year[kg CH4/(head*year)]
②Emission factors
12
• Actual measurement at factories, etc. (CH4 and N2O from the chemical industry, etc.)• Domestic research results (CH4 and N2O from the agriculture and waste sectors, etc.)• Default values in the IPCC Guidelines (N2O from aircraft, etc.)• Calculation from actual measurement values and scientific theoretical values (energy-
origin CO2, etc.)
Measurement of CH4 emissionsfrom the experimental paddy field Measurement of CH4 emissions from sheep
exhalations (New Zealand)
Courtesy: National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences Courtesy: NIWA
Methodologies to estimate GHG emissionsSources of emission factors
13
Reflecting the emission factor on the GHG inventory
If there is no national emission factor, the default values of the IPCC Guidelines are used.
A new emission factor was reported in a research paper.Paper on
rice cultivation
CH4
The Committee examines the validity to determine whether it should be employed.
Approval and request for revision
Agenda for the Committee
Potential nationalemission factor
ValidXX kg-CH4 /ha
Methodologies to estimate GHG emissionsExample of a national emission factor employed in the agricultural sector
14The Committee: Committee for the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation
③global warming potentialA numerical value obtained from calculating theinfluence of each gas on global warming for a certainperiod with 1 as the influence of CO2.GHG GWPCO2 1CH4 25N2O 298HFCs 1,430 etc.PFCs 7,390 etc.SF6 22,800NF3 17,200
(100-year time horizon from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
CH4 =CO2
CO2CO2
CO2CO2
CO2 CO2
1kg 25kg
Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions
15
Imports
Crude oil100
Oil refinery
Loss10
Crude oil100
Kerosene20
Fuel oil40
Gasoline30 Transport
Gasoline 30
ResidentialKerosene 20
IndustriesFuel oil 40
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
Example: Method of Energy-origin CO2 emissions
• Use General Energy Statistics (compiled by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy)
• General Energy Statistics show in which of the sectors (energy, industries, transport, residential, commercial and other sectors) fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) are consumed.
16
Main change on inventories submitted in 2015
17
<2008-2012 inventories (KP-CP1)>Revised 1996 IPCC GuidelinesGood Practice Guidance (2000)GPG-LULUCF (2003)
<2013 (2015 submission) inventories onward>2006 IPCC Guidelines2013 Wetlands Supplement2013 KP Supplement
• Estimation methodologies are revised annually in order to be more accurate.
• Major revisions are found in inventories submitted in 2015.
Main change on inventories submitted in 2015
• Change of sectors/categories– “2. Industrial processes” and “3. Solvent and Other Product Use” were
merged to “2. Industrial processes and Other Product Use”• Example: N2O use for medical applications are currently reported under 2.G.3 (previously, under
3.D.1).
• Addition of gases– Addition of NF3; Addition of species of HFCs and PFCs
• Addition of sources/sinks– Example: Fugitive emissions from abandoned coal mines, harvested wood
products, etc.
• Change of GWP– Example: GWP for CH4 is 25 instead of 21.
• Change of methodologies– Example: Revision of General Energy Statistics, application of a model (rice
cultivation), etc.
18
Summary
• Japan prepares national GHG inventories based on the IPCC Guidelines.
• GHG inventories are prepared by calculation from statistics, etc.
• Estimation methodologies are revised annually in order to be more accurate.
19
Thank you for your attention.
GIO websitehttp://www-gio.nies.go.jp
SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 2006(Sheet 1 of 1) Submission 2008 v1.1
JAPAN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs (2) PFCs (2) SF6
(2) Total SINK CATEGORIESTotal (Net Emissions) (1) 1,182,051 23,663 25,576 6,618 6,323 4,349 1,248,5801. Energy 1,185,910 1,268 7,525 1,194,702
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1,185,874 841 7,525 1,194,2401. Energy Industries 387,049 34 1,427 388,5092. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 373,821 293 2,733 376,8483. Transport 246,802 234 3,003 250,0404. Other Sectors 177,235 280 343 177,8575. Other 966 1 19 986
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 36 426 0 4622. Industrial Processes 53,885 133 1,625 6,618 6,323 4,349 72,9323. Solvent and Other Product Use NA,NE 266 2664. Agriculture 15,352 12,017 27,368
A. Enteric Fermentation 7,035 7,035B. Manure Management 2,471 4,733 7,205C. Rice Cultivation 5,743 5,743D. Agricultural Soils(3) NA 7,210 7,210F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 102 74 176G. Other NO NO NO
5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -91,544 26 17 -91,501A. Forest Land -83,389 2 0 -83,386B. Cropland 307 2 15 324C. Grassland -1,139 0 0 -1,138D. Wetlands 181 1 0 183E. Settlements -7,809 13 1 -7,795F. Other Land 303 8 1 312
6. Waste 33,800 6,885 4,126 44,811A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NA,NE,NO 5,392 5,392B. Waste-water Handling 1,409 1,178 2,587C. Waste Incineration 33,279 83 2,925 36,287D. Other 521 IE,NO 24 545
(2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included.(3) Parties which previously reported CO2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR.(4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.
CO2 equivalent (Gg )
(1) For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, thesigns for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).
CRFNIR
Press release GHG data20