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Japan’s Role in the Global Economy -Before the G7 Summit
FPCJ Press Briefing 21 April 2016
Kazumasa Iwata President
Japan Center for Economic Research
1
Fig. 1 World Stock Market Capitalization
Note: The data was downloaded on 14 April, 2016.
Source: World Federation of Exchanges
2
Fig.2 International Comparisons of
Labor Productivity Growth
-10
-5
0
5
10(y-o-y, %)
1995-99 average: 1.1%2001-10 average: 1.0% average beyond 2011: 0.4%
-5
0
5
1995-99 average: 2.2% 2001-10 average: 1.5% average beyond 2011: 0.7%
【US】
(y-o-y, %)
-5
0
5
95:1 97:1 99:1 01:1 03:1 05:1 07:1 09:1 11:1 13:1 15:1
Source: Cabinet Office, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Japan);
Department of Commerce, BLS (US); Office for National Statistics, Eurostat (UK)
1996-99 average: 1.9% 2001-10 average: 1.0% average beyond 2011: 0.9%
(Quarterly)
【UK】
15:4
(y-o-y, %)
【Japan】
3
Fig.3 Real Long-term Interest Rates
Declining Across the World
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Japan
US, UK, Germany & France(simple avg.)
(%)
15
(CY)
Note: The direct effects of the consumption tax hikes in Japan are excluded.
Sources: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan, OECD
4
Fig.4 The “Natural Rate of Interest”
and Real Interest Rate in Japan
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
85:1 90:1 95:1 00:1 05:1 10:1 15:1
Natural Rate of Interest
Real Interest Rate
(Quarterly)
15:3
(%)
Source: Estimated by JCER Financial Research Team
5
Fig.5 The “Natural Rate of Interest”
and Real Interest Rate in US
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, JCER Financial Research Team
6
Fig.6 The “Natural Rate of Interest”
and Real Interest Rate in UK
Source: Estimated by JCER Financial Research Team
Fig.7 Cash in Circulation
(% of Nominal GDP)
7 Sources: Central bank websites, National Statistical Offices, Eurostat, Cabinet Office
8
Fig.8 Negative Policy Rates
Sources: Central bank websites
9
Fig.9 Japan’s “Shadow Short Rate (SSR)”
and Inflation Rate
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 13/01 15/01
(%)
(Monthly)
Shadow Short Rate (SSR)
Core CPI (All items less fresh food)
16/01
Note: The direct effects of the consumption tax hikes are excluded.
Source: Estimated by JCER Financial Research Team with reference to Bank of Japan, Bauer and Rudebusch (2016)
10
Fig.10 5year/5year Inflation Swap Rate
Note; Data is up to April 14, 2016.
Source: Bloomberg
11
Fig.11 Japan's Short term Economic
Outlook
Note: * indicates contribution to changes in GDP.
Source: Cabinet Office, "Quarterly Estimates of GDP"
(y/y change, contributions, %, % points)
Real Nominal Deflator Real Nominal Deflator Real Nominal Deflator
Gross Domestic Product 0.7 2.2 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.4
Domestic Demand* 0.7 1.1 ▲0.3
Private Consumption ▲0.4 ▲0.7 ▲0.2 1.4 1.3 ▲0.1 ▲0.6 0.3 0.9
Private Residential Investment 2.2 2.3 0.1 2.5 3.5 1.0 ▲5.7 ▲3.2 2.6
Private Non-residential Investment 2.4 3.0 0.6 2.7 2.8 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.8
Change in Private Inventories* 0.3 ▲0.3 0.1
Public Investment ▲1.4 ▲1.3 0.1 ▲2.0 ▲1.1 0.9 ▲2.2 ▲0.1 2.1
Net Exports* 0.0 ▲0.1 0.4
Exports of Goods & Services 0.1 ▲0.9 ▲1.0 1.4 ▲0.0 ▲1.4 3.2 5.5 2.2
Imports of Goods & Services ▲0.1 ▲8.8 ▲8.7 2.5 ▲2.0 ▲4.4 1.1 6.0 4.8
Gross National Income 2.7 2.7 0.1 1.7 1.6 ▲0.1 ▲0.3 0.6 0.9
F.Y. 2015 F.Y. 2016 F.Y. 2017
Fig.12 Japan's Economic Outlook for
FY2015-FY2030
12 Source: JCER's estimates based on "System of National Accounts" (Cabinet office)
13
Fig.13 Estimated Real GDP Growth
through Increased Software Investment
565
636
500
550
600
650
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Baseline Scenario
Acceleration of ICT Investment Scenario
Forecast
(Tril. dollars)
Real GDP will increase by 70 tril. yen in FY 2030
(Additional 60 tril.yen in ICT investment from FY2015through 2030, incl. 50 tril. yen software investment)
(FY)
Source: Forecast by JCER
14
Fig.14 Level of labor productivity
Source: OECD
15
Fig.15 Education Standards
PISA
(2012)
PIAAC
(2012)
Note: Ranking shown in parentheses.
Source: OECD
16
Fig.16 Real Effective Exchange Rate
of the Japanese Yen
Source: Bank for International Settlements “The BIS Effective Exchange Rate Indices”
17
Fig.17 Real Effective Exchange Rate
of the US Dollar
Source: Bank for International Settlements “The BIS Effective Exchange Rate Indices”
18
Fig.18 Real Effective Exchange Rate
of the Euro(Euro area)
Source: Bank for International Settlements “The BIS Effective Exchange Rate Indices”
19
Fig.19 After QQE Supplementary Measures
Source: Estimated by JCER Financial Research Team
Previous analysis
(Scenario 1)
①Total
assets
(Tril. yen)
②Total
JGB
holdings
(Tril. yen)
②/①
Ratio (%)
Shift in ratio
(%)
③Total JGB
holdings after
shift
(Tril. yen)
④Supplementary
measures
②-③+④
JGBs available
for sale
(Tril. yen)
JGBs available
for sale
(Tril. yen)
Banks 1,004.6 98.9 10 5 50.2 13.9 62.6 74.4
Japan Post Bank 207.2 92.8 45 ― 59.2 0.0 33.6 40.0
Life insurance companies 281.1 101.9 36 36 101.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
Japan Post Insurance 84.9 46.7 55 34 28.9 0.0 17.9 19.2
Property insurance companies 30.8 5.8 19 13 4.0 0.0 1.8 1.8
Public pension funds 177.0 74.7 42 35 62.0 0.0 12.7 12.7
Total 1,785.6 420.8 24 合計 306.2 13.9 128.6 148.1
JGB holdings (End of Sept 2015) Scenario 2 (After QQE supplementary measures)
20
Fig.20 BOJ Necessary Amortization for
JGB Purchases on the Increase
Sources: BOJ, MOF
21
Sources: BOJ, ECB, FRB
Fig.21 Household Financial Assets
22
Fig.22 Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Financial Assets
Sources: BOJ, ECB, FRB
23
Fig.23 BOJ Purchases of Real Estate
Investment Trust is also reaching its Limit
Note: Maximum purchasable amount for the BOJ= Market value of AA-rated REIT x 5%
Sources: BOJ, NEEDS-Financial QUEST, Japan Credit Rating Agency, Ltd., Rating and Investment Information, Inc.
24
For more information,
please see our JCER website.
http://www.jcer.or.jp/eng/index.html