Japan Fiscal Condition - FY2011

8/8/2019 Japan Fiscal Condition - FY2011

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Japan's Fiscal Condition

December 2010

Ministry of Finance

Provisional translation



Table of Contents

(1) Fiscal Condition・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 1

(2) Trends in General Account Tax Revenues, Total Expenditures and Government Bond Issues・・ 2

(3) Government Bond Issues and Bond Dependency Ratio・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 3

(4) Accumulated Government Bonds Outstanding・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 4

(5) Long-Term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 5

(6) Trends in Interest Payments and Interest Rate・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・･･････・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 6

(7) Ratio of Major Expenditure Items in the General Account・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 7

(8) Trends of Major Expenditures in the General Account・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 8

(9) General Account Revenues・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 9

(10) General Account Expenditure ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 10

(Reference 1) General Government Financial Balances (International Comparison)・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 11

(Reference 2) General Government Gross Debt (International Comparison)・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 12

(Reference 3) General Government Net Debt (International Comparison)・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 13



◆ General Account Budget (Revenues and Expenditures)

FY2009 FY2010 FY2011

Initial budget Initial budget Draft budget

46,103.0 37,396.0 40,927.0

9,151.0 10,600.2 7,186.6

33,294.0 44,303.0 44,298.0

88,548.0 92,299.2 92,411.6

20,243.7 20,649.1 21,549.168,304.3 70,931.9 70,862.5

24,834.4 27,268.6 28,707.9

16,573.3 17,477.7 16,784.5

88,548.0 92,299.2 92,411.6

37.6% 48.0% 47.9%

-13,050.3 -23,653.9 -22,748.9

◆ Debt Situation

As of end-FY2009 (Actual) As of end-FY2010 (Estimated) As of end-FY2011 (Draft budget)

594 642 668

125% 134% 138%

819 868 891

173% 181% 184%Percentage of GDP

Percentage of GDP

Long-Term Debt Outstanding of

Central and Local Governments

Bond Dependency Ratio

Government Bonds Outstanding

(General Bonds Outstanding)

General Account Primary Balance

E x p e n d i t u r e s

Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc.

Total

National Debt ServicePrimary Balance Expenses

Social Security

R e v e n u e s

Tax and Stamp Revenues

Other Revenues

Government Bond Issues

Total

(1) Fiscal Condition

(Note 1) It's the first time since FY1946 that Tax and Stamp Revenues fall below Government Bond Issues in FY2010.

(Note 2) FY2010 initial budget expenditures in the general account include the repayment of the fund of compensation for the shortfall at FY2008 settlement (718.2 billion yen)

in addition to the above items.

(Note 3) General Account Primary Balance is calculated based on the easy-to-use method of National Debt Service minus Government Bond Issues, and is different from the

Central Government Primary Balance on an SNA basis.

(Trillion yen)

(Note 4) GDP for FY2009: Actual; FY2010: Estimates; FY2011: Forecast.

(Billion yen)

1



2.1 3.5 4.5 4.36.3 7.2 5.9 7.0 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.0

2.5 1.0 0.24.1 4.8

11.08.5

24.321.9 20.9

25.828.7

26.823.5

21.1 19.3

26.2

36.9 36.7 38.2

3.23.7

5.0 6.3

7.1 7.07.0

7.0 6.8 6.4 6.36.2

6.96.2 6.4 6.3 6.7

9.5

16.212.3

16.410.7

9.9

17.0

13.2

11.19.1

9.16.7 8.7

7.8

6.46.0

7.0

17.0

6.17.6

15.0

1.0

13.8 15.7

17.3

21.9 23.7

26.9 29.0

30.5 32.4

34.9

38.2

41.9

46.8

50.8

54.9

60.1 59.8

54.4 54.1

51.0 51.9 52.1

53.9

49.4 47.2

50.7

47.9

43.8 43.3 45.6

49.1 49.1 51.0

20.9

24.5

29.1

34.1

38.8

43.4 46.9

47.2

50.6 51.5 53.0 53.6

57.7

61.5

65.9

69.3 70.5 70.5

75.1 73.6

75.9

78.8 78.5

84.4

89.0 89.3

84.8 83.7

82.4

84.9 85.5

81.4 81.8

92.4

5.37.2

9.610.7

13.5

14.2

12.914.0

13.5 12.8 12.3 11.39.4

7.2 6.6 6.7

9.5

16.2 16.5

21.2 21.7

18.5

34.0

37.5

33.0

30.0

35.0 35.3 35.5

31.3

27.525.4

33.2

52.0

44.3 44.3

40.9

44.3

38.7 39.6

84.7

96.7

101.0

7.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

（FY）

（Trillion yen）

Total Expenditures

Tax Revenues

Construction Bond Issues

Special Deficit-Financing

Bond Issues

(Note 1) FY1975-2009: Settlement, FY2010:Revised budget, FY2011: Draft budget(Note 2) Ad-hoc deficit-financing bonds (approx. 1 trillion yen) were issued in FY1990 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction efforts in the Persian Gulf Region.

(Note 3) General Account Primary Balance is calculated based on the easy-to-use method of National Debt Service minus Government Bond Issues, and is different from the Central

Government Primary Balance on an SNA basis.

(2) Trends in General Account Tax Revenues, Total Expenditures and Government Bond Issues

【Flow】 (Unit: billion yen)

【Stock 】 (Unit: trillion yen)

FY2011

Bond Dependency Ratio 47.9%General Account Primary Balance -22,748.9

As of end-FY2011

（Percentage of GDP）

Government Bonds Outstanding

(General Bonds Outstanding)668(138%)

Long-Term Debt Outstanding of

Central and Local Governments891(184%)

2



2.13.5 4.5 4.3

6.3 7.25.9

7.0 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.02.5

1.0

4.1 4.8

11.08.5

24.3

21.9 20.9

25.828.7

36.738.2

3.2

3.7

5.0 6.3

7.1 7.07.0

7.0 6.8 6.4 6.36.2

6.9

6.26.4 6.3 6.7

9.5

16.2

12.3

16.4

10.7

9.9

17.0

13.2

11.19.1

9.1

6.78.7

7.8

6.4

6.0

7.0

15.0

7.66.1

17.0

36.9

26.2

21.1

26.8

23.5

19.3

0.2

1.0

32.6

26.6

24.8

23.2

21.0

47.9 45.8

16.3

25.3

32.9

31.3

34.7

39.2

31.0

41.8 41.8

42.9

36.9

23.5

27.6 28.0

11.6

10.1 10.6

9.5

13.5

21.5

22.4

40.3

35.4

36.6

33.7

27.5

29.7

42.1

51.5

29.4

5.3

7.29.6

10.7

13.514.2

12.914.0 13.5

12.8 12.311.3

9.4

7.2 6.6 6.7

9.5

16.2 16.5

21.2 21.7

18.5

37.5

33.0

30.0

35.0

33.2

44.344.3

34.0

52.0

25.4

31.3

35.3 35.5

27.5

7.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

(FY)

(Trillion yen)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

（％）

Ad-Hoc Deficit-Financing Bonds

Construction Bonds

Special Deficit-Financing Bonds

(3) Government Bond Issues and Bond Dependency Ratio

(Note) FY1975-2009: Settlement, FY2010: Revised budget, FY2011: Draft budget

Bond Dependency Ratio (right axis)

Government Bond Issues (left axis)

3



28 3340 47 53 59 64 65 65 64 65 64 63 61 64 67

77 83

108134

158

176

199

231

258

280288

305321

356

394

421

2835

4249

5663

69 75

81 87 91 97 102 108116

131142

158

168175

187

197

209

216

222

226

241

247 243237 225

238

248

247

1052

15 211317 220 1 2 2 2 3 4 6 8 10 1522

3243

5671

82

110122

134145 152 157 161 166 172

178193

207

225

245258

295

332

368

392

421

457

499

527 532541 546

594

642

668

96

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

(As of the end of the FY）

（Trillion yen）

(4) Accumulated Government Bonds Outstanding

(Note 1) FY1965-2009: Actual, FY2010: Estimates, FY2011: Draft budget

(Note 2) Special deficit-financing bonds outstanding include refunding bonds for long-term debts transferred from JNR Settlement Corporation, the National Forest Service, etc.

(Note 3) The estimate of FY2011 excluding front-loading issuance of refunding bonds is approximately 656 trillion yen.

Special Deficit-Financing Bonds

Construction Bonds

Equivalent to approx. 16 years of General Account Tax Revenues

Tax Revenues in FY2011 General Account Budget: Approx. \41 trillion

FY2011 Government Bonds Outstanding

Approx. \668 trillion (projection)

↓

Approx. \5.24 million per person

Approx. \20.94 million per family of 4

Average disposable income of a working family

Approx. \5.13 million

(Average family size: 3.43)

(Note) Disposable income and family size are based on the

"FY2009 Survey of Household Economy" by the Ministry of

Internal Affairs and Communications

For reference

4



As of end - As of end - As of end - As of end - As of end -

FY1998 FY2003 FY2008 FY2010 FY2011

＜Actual＞＜Actual＞＜Actual＞＜Estimated＞＜Draft Budget＞

Approx. 573 Approx. 668 Approx. 692

( Approx. 568 ) ( Approx. 648 ) ( Approx. 680 )



111% 134% 138%

( 110% ) ( 130% ) ( 136% )

Approx. 163 Approx. 198 Approx. 197 Approx. 200 Approx. 200

As a percentage

of GDP 32% 40% 40% 42% 41%



157% 181% 184%

( 156% ) ( 177% ) ( 182% )

(Note 1)

(Note 2)

(Note 3)

(Note 4)

Approx. 457Approx. 295

Approx. 692Approx. 553

92.6%58.7%

Figures in parentheses in FY2008 and FY2010-2011 do not include front-loading issuance of refunding bonds.

The borrowings in the Special Account for Local Allocation and Local Transfer Tax are shared by the central government and local

governments in accordance with their shares of redemption. The amount of the borrowings outstanding incurred by the central government

was transferred to the general account at the beginning of FY2007, so that the borrowings outstanding in the Special Account since the end of

FY2007 are the debt of the local governments (approx. \34 trillion).

Government bonds outstanding in the Special Account for Fiscal Investment and Loan Program are at approximately 119 trillion yen as of

end-FY2011.

As a percentage

of GDP110% 140%

GDP for FY1996-2008: Actual; FY2010: Estimates; FY2011: Forecast.

Local Governments

Total

General Bonds

As a percentage

of GDP

Central Government Approx. 390 Approx. 493

(5) Long-Term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments

(Trillion yen)

5



22 32 4356

7182

110122

134145152157

161166172178

193207

225

245

332

368

392

421

457

499

527532541546

594

642

668

295

96

15

258

0.81.3

1.92.6 3.3

4.4

5.6

6.6

7.7

8.7

9.7 10.2 10.5

10.8 10.8 10.7 10.710.610.8

8.6

7.88.5

9.9

9.410.0

10.5

10.710.611.0

10.610.4

7.67.47.37.0 7.0

7.7

1.4

4.0

1.4

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.5 4.3

4.6

5.1

5.4

5.8

6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3

6.5

6.8

7.2 7.4

7.5 7.6 7.5 7.4

7.2 7.1

7.4 7.4

1.5 1.4 1.4

7.6

1.4

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

（FY）

（Trillion yen）

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

（Trillion yen）

10％ 25

8％ 20

6％ 15

4％ 10

2％ 5

0％ 0

(6) Trends in Interest Payments and Interest Rate

Interest payments (left scale)

Government bonds

outstanding (right scale)

Interest rate (left scale)

FY2011 Interest Payments in the General

AccountApprox. \9.9 trillion

Approx. \27.2 billion per day

Approx. \1.1 billion per hour

Approx. \18.88 million per minute

(Note 1) Interest Payments for FY1975-2009: Settlement; FY2010: Revised budget; FY2011: Draft budget.

(Note 2) Government bonds outstanding for FY1975-2009: Actual; FY2010: Estimates; FY2011: Draft budget.

6



17.4 17.6 15.910.0

13.3

5.4

51.2

43.2

36.6

29.7 25.2

22.1

11.1

14.1

18.8

16.6 19.7

31.1

18.8

21.6

16.0

23.0 17.7 18.2

3.5

12.7

20.724.0 23.3

1.5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY1960 FY1970 FY1980 FY1990 FY2000 FY2011

(7) Ratio of Major Expenditure Items in the General Account

(Note) FY1960-2000: Settlement, FY2011: Draft budget

National Debt

Service

Local Allocation

Tax Grants, etc.

Social Securityrelated Expenditure

Others

Public Works

related Expenditures

・Education & Science

・National Defense, etc.

7



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY1960 FY1970 FY1980 FY1990 FY2000 FY2011

（Trillion yen）

(8) Trends of Major Expenditures in the General Account

(Note) FY1960-2000: Settlement, FY2011: Draft budget

Education & Science

National Defense

Public Works

Other Expenditures

Local Allocation

Tax Grants, etc.

National Debt Service

Social Security

8







（％）

CY 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Japan -6.9 -5.8 -7.2 -8.5 -8.2 -6.5 -7.9 -8.0U.S. -3.2 -1.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.1 -2.2 -5.5 -6.3

U.K. -4.2 -2.2 -0.1 0.9 3.7 0.6 -2.0 -3.7

Germany -3.3 -2.6 -2.2 -1.5 1.3 -2.8 -3.6 -4.0

France -4.0 -3.3 -2.6 -1.8 -1.5 -1.6 -3.2 -4.1

Italy -7.0 -2.7 -3.1 -1.8 -0.9 -3.1 -3.0 -3.5

Canada -2.8 0.2 0.1 1.6 2.9 0.7 -0.1 -0.1

CY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Japan -6.6 -5.2 -3.5 -2.8 -3.4 -8.3 -8.1 -7.3

U.S. -5.8 -4.6 -3.6 -4.3 -7.6 -12.1 -11.1 -9.6

U.K. -3.6 -3.3 -2.7 -2.8 -4.8 -11.0 -9.6 -8.1

Germany -3.8 -3.3 -1.6 0.3 0.1 -3.0 -4.0 -2.9

France -3.6 -3.0 -2.3 -2.7 -3.3 -7.6 -7.4 -6.1

Italy -3.6 -4.4 -3.3 -1.5 -2.7 -5.2 -5.0 -3.9Canada 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.0 -5.5 -4.9 -3.4

（％）

CY 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Japan -5.1 -4.0 -5.8 -7.4 -7.6 -6.3 -8.0 -7.9

U.S. -2.3 -0.9 0.3 0.7 1.5 -0.6 -4.0 -5.0

CY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Japan -6.2 -4.8 -3.4 -3.0 -3.8 -8.9 -8.8 -8.2

U.S. -4.4 -3.3 -2.2 -2.9 -6.3 -11.3 -10.5 -8.8-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

（CY）

（％）

(Source) OECD "Economic Outlook 88" (December, 2010)

(Note 1) FY2011 draft budget is not reflected in the above data.

(Note 2) Figures for Japan are adjusted to exclude special factors.

(Reference 1) General Government Financial Balances (International Comparison)

Japan

France

United States

Canada

United

Kingdom

Germany

Italy


(Note) Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local governments and the social

security funds), except for Japan and the U.S where the figures of the social security funds are excluded.

The following figures include social security.

11



（％）

CY 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Japan 93.8 100.5 113.2 127.1 135.4 143.7 152.3 158.0U.S. 69.9 67.4 64.2 60.5 54.5 54.4 56.8 60.2

U.K. 51.2 52.0 52.5 47.4 45.1 40.4 40.8 41.5

Germany 58.8 60.3 62.2 61.5 60.4 59.8 62.2 65.4

France 66.3 68.8 70.3 66.8 65.6 64.3 67.3 71.4

Italy 128.9 130.3 132.6 126.4 121.6 120.8 119.4 116.8

Canada 101.7 96.3 95.2 91.4 82.1 82.7 80.6 76.6

CY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Japan 165.5 175.3 172.2 167.1 173.9 192.8 198.4 204.2

U.S. 61.2 61.4 60.9 62.0 71.1 84.4 92.8 98.5

U.K. 43.8 46.4 46.1 47.2 57.0 72.4 81.3 88.6

Germany 68.8 71.2 69.3 65.3 69.4 76.5 79.9 81.3

France 73.9 75.7 70.9 70.0 75.9 87.1 92.4 97.1

Italy 117.3 119.9 117.2 112.7 115.1 127.7 131.3 132.7Canada 72.6 71.6 70.3 66.5 71.3 83.4 84.4 85.5

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

（CY）

（％）

(Reference 2) General Government Gross Debt (International Comparison)


(Note 1) Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local

governments and the social security funds).


Japan

Italy

FranceUnited States

Germany

United KingdomCanada

12



（％）

CY 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Japan 29.2 34.8 46.2 53.8 60.4 66.3 72.6 76.5U.S. 51.9 48.8 44.9 40.2 35.3 34.6 37.2 40.5

U.K. 27.9 30.6 32.6 29.0 26.8 23.2 23.7 23.9

Germany 32.7 32.4 36.2 34.7 34.0 36.3 40.4 43.2

France 41.8 42.3 40.5 33.5 35.1 36.7 41.8 44.2

Italy 104.5 104.6 107.0 101.1 95.6 96.3 95.7 92.7

Canada 70.0 64.7 60.8 55.8 46.2 44.3 42.6 38.7

CY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Japan 82.7 84.6 84.3 81.5 94.9 108.2 114.0 120.4

U.S. 42.1 42.5 41.7 42.4 48.3 59.7 67.8 74.3

U.K. 25.9 27.1 27.5 28.5 33.0 43.8 51.3 57.6

Germany 47.2 49.5 47.5 42.2 44.0 48.5 50.5 51.6

France 45.3 43.2 37.2 33.8 43.4 50.8 57.1 61.8

Italy92.5 93.7 90.5 87.0 89.7 100.0 103.3 104.7

Canada 35.2 31.0 26.3 22.9 22.4 28.4 31.4 33.7

0

25

50

75

100

125

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

（CY）

（％）

(Reference 3) General Government Net Debt (International Comparison)

Japan

Italy

France

Canada

United Kingdom

Germany

United States


(Note 1) Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local

governments and the social security funds).


13

Documents

Japan Fiscal Condition - FY2011